Pace

[Tom]

It seems to me that everytime I look at a new race, more and more horses are showing no running style at all anymore. They run in the lead and they come from dead last. There have always been a number of horses that defy having a running style assinged to them, but lately, it seems like there are more you can't classify than there are that you can.
What really is puzzling is that the slower the pace times, the wrost some horse seem to do. How can a horse lead in 113-4 on one race and then two races later, on the same track, be 9 lenghts of a 115 flat????
I have been a pace handicapper for years, but lately, I am begining to really that pace has anything to do at all with the outcomes of races. Or maybe it just that I am looking at too many race with horse that really are not worth the trouble to try to handicap? Certaily seem that more horse finshed last last time out than ran good.
Any thoughts on this?

Tom

[cj]

The following method rarely fails me when I assign a style to a horse...only look at races in which a horse won or lost by less than 1 length. Most horses only win when they employ a certain style, maybe two. Where the run when they don't perform well doesn't matter much. Just my humble opinion.

cj

[superfecta]

I suspect you may be looking at too many "paceless" races.I find the cheaper tracks have too many races where pace is not a dominating method of picking horses.Sometimes using the last running line to figure a horses chances is best,not trying to see what he usually does over several races.Cheaper stock is more unstable.Trainers and class drops sometimes the prime factors,and these are subjective,open to interpretation.When all else doesn't make sense,pass the race.

[BIG HIT]

Hi tom have you tried takeing a race scan for lead horse last race.Use the fastest front runners pace last race.And judge all horse by that pace time in thier pastperformence.Work good for me.When playing detroit race course and they were $4000 claimers.Check a few race and the results the half they run the race is usually pretty close with 2/5 th one way or the other and worked better than par time i thought.Let me know what you think as you are one of the better handicappers on the board and would be thrilled to know i had something to offer some one who is more advance then myself.HAVE A GREAT DAY

[Tom]

Originally posted by BIG HIT
Hi tom have you tried takeing a race scan for lead horse last race.Use the fastest front runners pace last race.And judge all horse by that pace time in thier pastperformence.Work good for me.When playing detroit race course and they were $4000 claimers.Check a few race and the results the half they run the race is usually pretty close with 2/5 th one way or the other and worked better than par time i thought.Let me know what you think as you are one of the better handicappers on the board and would be thrilled to know i had something to offer some one who is more advance then myself.HAVE A GREAT DAY

Thanks for the compliment, but if were that good, I won't here chatting, I'd be in some southern climate betting hroses ~G~
You know the old saying, those that can, do, those that can't, chat~G~.
Actually, there are some pretty good 'cappers here, which is why I ask questions here. I like Detroit Racecourse, and I actually spent a week's vacation ther one year just to play that track.
I do something similar to what you describe,but I try to assing running styles to the horse and that telss me who wiull be affected the most by today's match up.
Tom

[andicap]

Originally posted by BIG HIT
Hi tom have you tried takeing a race scan for lead horse last race.Use the fastest front runners pace last race.And judge all horse by that pace time in thier pastperformence.Work good for me.When playing detroit race course and they were $4000 claimers.Check a few race and the results the half they run the race is usually pretty close with 2/5 th one way or the other and worked better than par time i thought.


I'm always interested in ways that people judge pace. Can you give me an example of how you evaluate a race, pace-wise, using your method?

[John]

Does'nt all this have to do with running styles...

[superfecta]

Originally posted by rocajack
Does'nt all this have to do with running styles...
Sometimes it does,some horses will always try for the lead,no matter how fast,but some horses get in gear late,so some races they may be too far off the lead,sometimes they will be in contention strictly because they are running with slower horses.
Good pace analysis helps find the times when a horse that ran ten lengths behind will be in a better position today,or he will be with slower horses and he can get to the wire in time,or even finding a good horse that won't be able to handle the pace and he burns out or starts his run too late.

[andicap]

That makes fast-paced races a riddle sometimes. If a horse generally goes 8 lengths or so behind the pace (normally about 47) and they go 6f in 44.2, will that horse go in 46 or his usual 47.
And if he goes in 46, faster than usual, will the closer be too tired to make his normal run at the end? And if he goes in his usual 47, will he have enough time to catch the fading leaders since he will be 13 lengths behind early? That, of course, depends on whether everyone expires and comes home in 27 seconds while our closer can do 24.1 in the last quarter. But what if one of the pace pressers who's 5 lengths off the pace at 45.2 (and eight lengths ahead of our closer) comes home in 25.3. He still wins by a length.
(Yes, yes I know it's not exactly 1 tick per length, but this is just for example's sake).

Moral: Pace handicapping can be downright frustrating at times.

Does anyone believe Jim Bradshaw's claims that he won most of his races using this kind of analysis?

[Tom]

Originally posted by andicap

Does anyone believe Jim Bradshaw's claims that he won most of his races using this kind of analysis? [/B]

No.

Tom

[BIG HIT]

If you were asking me?Iscan the race and say you had three front runners last race who had the lead one was 45 1/2 the next 45.4 1/2 and the next46 1/2.I will judge all horse or use only pace lines that show good races at a 45 1/2 or faster.If a closer has the fastest 1/2 last race it would be ignored as far as judgeing the pace of the race only horse that led are considered.

[Tom]

I agree taht you can not project a closer to the lead just on his times, but the question I posed was more concerning how to tell if a horse is closer or a front runner. I see a lot of horse that may have led last race in 45 flat and lost, but show three wins previously, two from the rear of the field and one pressing.
What is this horse?
I will see if I can find a good example in a real race this weekend and post it, and maybe we can do some chatting about it before the race runs.

Tom

[Lefty]

Bradshaw's book confused hell out of me. He'd outline a horse and it would show 2nd by 1 at 2nd call and he'd call it a sp horse.
I couldn't understand book at all. Too much Voodoo for me.

[BIG HIT]

Hi tom sorry Ican read but comprehenshion another thing.As for your example horse.Iwould call him a closer as that where he had his most success.But could press if pace fig to be where he pressed before

[superfecta]

Originally posted by Lefty
Bradshaw's book confused hell out of me. He'd outline a horse and it would show 2nd by 1 at 2nd call and he'd call it a sp horse.
I couldn't understand book at all. Too much Voodoo for me.
I didn't get much out of the book either.Pace analysis is something that you just have to see over and over again and be able to quantify with your own pace figs.No two people will analyze a race the same,each will take different pacelines and that affects your opinion of what type of pace shape will form.