NBA draft June 25, 2015

[Stillriledup]

So its looking like Towns is the first pick, do we think the Lakers be MOTO and pick Okafor?

I think the Lakers will mess this up somehow, Theres really nobody there who knows a thing about basketball, if i were them i would trade the 2nd pick (and whatever else) to get Cousins.

[Robert Goren]

So its looking like Towns is the first pick, do we think the Lakers be MOTO and pick Okafor?

I think the Lakers will mess this up somehow, Theres really nobody there who knows a thing about basketball, if i were them i would trade the 2nd pick (and whatever else) to get Cousins.That would be a huge mistake. Cousins is great fantasy player, but not nearly as great at helping his team win. But the Okafor never heard of defense and is a candidate for "Hack-a-Okafor". I would take Russell or Porzingis, probably Russell, but they will take Okafor.

[Robert Fischer]

I think it's weird how the draft goes Big-Man crazy, when modern NBA has pretty much established that it's a guard/forward's game.

D'Angelo Russel seems like a solid player. I haven't watched a ton of his game, but I'd have him as my top-ranked prospect.

Porzingas and Kaminski are both longshots who could translate into perimeter-scoring PFs. If a team could develop one of these guys along those lines, they could have something.

I don't see a lot separating the 1-dimensional bigs such as Towns/Okafor/Stein. In fact, I like a consensus lower-rated guy like Stein for his ability to move and his physical size/strength. I think he offers more value at a lower pick.

[cj]

I think it's weird how the draft goes Big-Man crazy, when modern NBA has pretty much established that it's a guard/forward's game.

D'Angelo Russel seems like a solid player. I haven't watched a ton of his game, but I'd have him as my top-ranked prospect.

Porzingas and Kaminski are both longshots who could translate into perimeter-scoring PFs. If a team could develop one of these guys along those lines, they could have something.

I don't see a lot separating the 1-dimensional bigs such as Towns/Okafor/Stein. In fact, I like a consensus lower-rated guy like Stein for his ability to move and his physical size/strength. I think he offers more value at a lower pick.

I think the game has changed because there aren't many skilled big men. Everyone hopes they are getting one of the rare skilled ones in the draft, but they almost never do.

[Robert Fischer]

I think the game has changed because there aren't many skilled big men. Everyone hopes they are getting one of the rare skilled ones in the draft, but they almost never do.

So true.

And here we have the top-2 picks (Towns, Okafor) and the top Free-Agent/Trade (Cousins) projected to be bigs.

[cj]

These are the last 15 #1 draft picks (and how I think of them)

Kenyon Martin (servicable player for a long time, nothing more)
Kwame Brown (LOL)
Yao Ming (very good but career ended early by injuries)
Lebron James (Best of the whole lot of these by a long way)
Dwight Howard (Promising early, now just ok)
Andrew Bogut (Injury plagued, rim protector, basically benched in Finals)
Andrea Bargnani (LOLOL)
Greg Oden (sad story, but who didn't see that coming other than Portland GM?)
Derrick Rose (another sad story, huge promise early, now just a decent player that can't stay healthy)
Blake Griffin (Very good player that could yet become a superstar)
John Wall (so so for a #1 pick, but a pretty good point guard)
Kyrie Irving (promising, but injury prone...jury is out)
Anthony Davis (franchise player, headed to top 3 player status, maybe best)
Anthony Bennett (LOLOLOL)
Andrew Wiggins (promising rookie year, he'll be very good if Wolves don't derail him)

These are the guys that are probably best from first round of each draft:

2000 In perhaps the worst draft of all time, it may Kenyon Martin or Jamaal Crawford
2001 Pau Gasol narrowly over Tony Parker
2002 Yao Ming still gets it, rest not much
2003 Lebron James
2004 I'd go with Ande Igudala over Howard narrowly
2005 Chris Paul hands down
2006 Lamarcus Aldridge
2007 Kevin Durant
2008 Rose had slight edge early, but it is clearly Westbrook now
2009 Steph Curry narrowly over both James Harden and Blake Griffin
2010 Paul George?
2011 Klay Thompson narrowly over Kyrie due to health
2012 Anthony Davis
2013 In a hoorible draft, this one is close between Victor Oladipo, Steven Adams and Michael Carter-Williams, take your pic
2014 Jury still out but probably Andrew Wiggins.
2014

[Stillriledup]

Great post CJ I really enjoyed reading that, couldn't agree more on everything you said. Good stuff.

[Valuist]

2009 draft. Steph Curry is the 7th pick. So who was picked right in front of him? Johnny Flinn, who's not even in the league anymore. And in another draft, the Warriors take Clay Thompson right after Jimmer Fredette, who has long since left Sacramento.

[Stillriledup]

2009 draft. Steph Curry is the 7th pick. So who was picked right in front of him? Johnny Flinn, who's not even in the league anymore. And in another draft, the Warriors take Clay Thompson right after Jimmer Fredette, who has long since left Sacramento.

It's amazing that the Wolves had 2 shots at Curry and picked 2 PGs In a row. It's almost like they were trying to lose on purpose.

[Robert Fischer]

Can Frank Kaminski be a Kevin Love 'type' of offensive player??

Can he be a stretch-4 with 3pt accuracy?


I happen to think a lot depends on who gets him, how much they involve him in such a role (coaches + max contract star(s)).
I do think that if his confidence is developed and he's placed in that role with support that he can in fact be that type of offensive weapon.

[Stillriledup]

Lakers looking at Russell. I think I like that pick. BUT if u don't want okafor, why not trade the 2nd pick? Why waste the 2nd pick on a guy who's not a consensus top 2 pick when you really need help all over the place ?

[Robert Fischer]

Lakers looking at Russell. I think I like that pick. BUT if u don't want okafor, why not trade the 2nd pick? Why waste the 2nd pick on a guy who's not a consensus top 2 pick when you really need help all over the place ?

Wise move nonetheless to pass on the big-man for a guy(Russell) who has some chance to be an all star.

[Stillriledup]

I like the pick for them.

[Valuist]

Will Aldredge end up in San Antonio? If he does, I think they becomes the favorites to win the title next season.

[Robert Fischer]

Will Aldredge end up in San Antonio? If he does, I think they becomes the favorites to win the title next season.

That would be huge.

[JustRalph]

Shocked a Buckeye went 2nd. Thad Matta I don't think runs a team or system that makes for good pro players later. I have never been all in on him.

I was devastated years back when Gary Williams left OSU. I loved the way that guy coached

[cj]

Shocked a Buckeye went 2nd. Thad Matta I don't think runs a team or system that makes for good pro players later. I have never been all in on him.

I was devastated years back when Gary Williams left OSU. I loved the way that guy coached

Williams was great until he won his national title for the Terps. I think he lost enthusiasm after that, in part because he reached the top and also because he didn't want to fight with the AD Debbie Yow any longer.

[Stillriledup]

Knicks botch again?

[BlueChip@DRF]

Knicks botch again?

What do you mean by "again"?

[cj]

What do you mean by "again"?

Have you seen the standings in recent years?

[Stillriledup]

What do you mean by "again"?

Not draft-botch specific, just botches in general.

[Stillriledup]

I have a gut feeling Cousins is going to the Lakers even though rumors now are it's off the table.

Is there any possible way the Lakers can keep Russell and still get Cousins?

I think the Kings won't do the deal without Russell because even a package of Clarkson, Randle and first round picks for the next couple of years won't get it done, I guess the key for the lakers is to try n get Cousins while also keeping either Russell or Randle.

Another idea would try and pull off some kind of mega situation by getting cousins AND Aldridge.

I can't imagine they're going to start the season w Kobe, Russell and Randle, something is going to happn.

How about this team to start the season:

Kobe, cousins, Aldridge and Rondo. :D

[Robert Goren]

I think the Kings are "protesting" too much about a Cousins trade. But I do not see the Lakers as the team that gets him though. They just don't have enough to get him.

[lansdale]

These are the last 15 #1 draft picks (and how I think of them)

Kenyon Martin (servicable player for a long time, nothing more)
Kwame Brown (LOL)
Yao Ming (very good but career ended early by injuries)
Lebron James (Best of the whole lot of these by a long way)
Dwight Howard (Promising early, now just ok)
Andrew Bogut (Injury plagued, rim protector, basically benched in Finals)
Andrea Bargnani (LOLOL)
Greg Oden (sad story, but who didn't see that coming other than Portland GM?)
Derrick Rose (another sad story, huge promise early, now just a decent player that can't stay healthy)
Blake Griffin (Very good player that could yet become a superstar)
John Wall (so so for a #1 pick, but a pretty good point guard)
Kyrie Irving (promising, but injury prone...jury is out)
Anthony Davis (franchise player, headed to top 3 player status, maybe best)
Anthony Bennett (LOLOLOL)
Andrew Wiggins (promising rookie year, he'll be very good if Wolves don't derail him)

These are the guys that are probably best from first round of each draft:

2000 In perhaps the worst draft of all time, it may Kenyon Martin or Jamaal Crawford
2001 Pau Gasol narrowly over Tony Parker
2002 Yao Ming still gets it, rest not much
2003 Lebron James
2004 I'd go with Ande Igudala over Howard narrowly
2005 Chris Paul hands down
2006 Lamarcus Aldridge
2007 Kevin Durant
2008 Rose had slight edge early, but it is clearly Westbrook now
2009 Steph Curry narrowly over both James Harden and Blake Griffin
2010 Paul George?
2011 Klay Thompson narrowly over Kyrie due to health
2012 Anthony Davis
2013 In a hoorible draft, this one is close between Victor Oladipo, Steven Adams and Michael Carter-Williams, take your pic
2014 Jury still out but probably Andrew Wiggins.
2014

If the point of this post is that it's nearly impossible to predict how good talented young players are going to be before they get into the NBA, I agree - and worth remembering that the people making these decisions have mostly spent their life in the game, for everyone who second-guesses them. It should be more obvious (especially for those whine about slacking players) that competition for slots in the NBA is brutal - the average career, as with the NFL, is two years. Extremely few players prove to be better than they were thought to be in college, and usually they're players that come under the wing of great, 'teaching' coaches (Pop, PJAX) - players like Scottie Pippen, Dennis Rodman, Kawhi Leonard, Manu Ginobli.

But, although you seem to see how much of a role chance plays in which players are selected, you seem to negate how much of a role it plays in how their career is viewed.

For example, would you really claim Iguodala is a better player than D12 if GSW hadn't just won the title? I realize many hate on D12, but he's a much better player than AI by any measure. D12 is surely not the player he was at his peak before the back operation, but he's still a high-level player - he led the playoffs in total rebounds and blocked shots even though the Rockets went out in the second round. Look at the career stats:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=1&p1=howardw01&p2=iguodan01&p3=&p4=&p5=&p6=

As far as Aldridge goes, he was the second pick in 2006, so not far off there.

Re Westbrook, what you say really only is true of this season. And based on the criteria your using, it seems that Love, who has a much better shot than WB, at this point, to be winning titles in the next couple of years, may be viewed as the better player in the long run.

Re the 2011 draft - it really was loaded, and I think there's a good chance that Kyrie or Thompson are only thir or fourth-best behind Jimmy Butler, who did an incredible job on LBJ in the playoffs, and Kawhi, who did the same last year. Take a look at the numbers - this is this past season:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&y1=2015&p1=butleji01&y2=2015&p2=irvinky01&y3=2015&p3=thompkl01&y4=2015&p4=leonaka01&p5=&p6=

Here are the numbers for their careers:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=1&p1=thompkl01&p2=irvinky01&p3=leonaka01&p4=butleji01&p5=&p6=

It seems clear enough from these stats that JB and KL are slightly better players, but aren't viewed as such because the strength of their D (as with D12) is overlooked.

Re Wiggins, he had the worst stats of any ROY in three decades. I'll be surprised if he proves to be anything more than a mid-level All Star. Pretty clear to me (and I think many others) that Mirotic (admittedly older and more experienced) is much the better player. Here are the numbers - and remember Mirotic is coming off the bench - check esp. the WS 48 difference:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=1&p1=wiggian01&p2=mirotni01&p3=&p4=&p5=&p6=

Re 2002 - was LBJ 'far and away' the best player in a draft that included Wade, and in which three of the top five players formed the champion Miami Heat team of recent years?

As Nate Silver pointed out, there's a tremendous amount of luck is involved in winning an NBA championship - the basic requirement is two HOFers - most teams will never have those. Of those which do, injuries (D12, Rose, Ming, possibly Durant and Irving) often prove an impassible barrier. For those who do get there, luck is as important as skill - and there's no way to know at the beginning of any career, who will have fortune in their corner.

[Robert Fischer]

Nice post Lansdale.

There is a lot of luck involved.

The system is also very important. Both in development of draft picks, and in rounding a team into form on a consistent basis.


Great coaching, and a great 'system' will give a team every chance to outperform their rivals and their own expectations. A few All-star level performers never hurt either.

[cj]

Of course I was just pointing out it is a crapshoot. I'm not knocking those making the picks. It obviously is very difficult.

Kevin Love? LOLOLOLOL. He will NEVER, EVER be a better basketball player than Russell Westbrook. Not in a million years.

[Valuist]

Shocked a Buckeye went 2nd. Thad Matta I don't think runs a team or system that makes for good pro players later. I have never been all in on him.

I was devastated years back when Gary Williams left OSU. I loved the way that guy coached

Matta is one of the best coaches in college basketball. Helped put Butler on the map, then a strong job at Xavier. His Ohio State record speaks for itself. They've had a couple Final Four trips and one runner finish; numerous B10 titles and have won 20 or more games every season he's been in Columbus.

The best systems for future NBA players is at Kentucky and Duke, where the coaches understand they will have these guys for one season only. Those players may, but don't necessarily help build college programs.

[lansdale]

Of course I was just pointing out it is a crapshoot. I'm not knocking those making the picks. It obviously is very difficult.

Kevin Love? LOLOLOLOL. He will NEVER, EVER be a better basketball player than Russell Westbrook. Not in a million years.

I know well how you feel about WB and you know I like him a lot myself. Bird, Pippen, and Reggie Miller are among many who thought he deserved the MVP. Love himself says he's the NBA player he would most like to have on his team. And certainly the majority of NBA fans love WB and think of him as a far better player than Love. But is this really true?

Here are their career stats:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=1&p1=wiggian01&p2=mirotni01&p3=&p4=&p5=&p6=

They show one thing that everyone already knows - that Love is a much more efficient scorer. He's averaged 3 fewer fga per game while averaging only two fewer pts. - 21:19 pg. But what's most amazing is that, while demonstrating a much higher Offensive rtg per 100, 116-108,,thanks to this efficiency, and his defense has been only 1 pt. per 100 worse than WB, 106:105, who is considered a much better defender. In the most significant area - WS 48 - Love leads 18:14.5

Of course, you can say, their situations have been completely different - Love has been the go-to player on a .500 team that he had to carry, and WB has been the second option on a potential title contender. But this past season, their situations (thanks to chance) reversed and now Love was the third option on a title contender, and WB was the go-to player on a .500 (let's say .550) team. So let's compare them in close to identical situations - Love's 2013-14, and WB's 2014-15. Here it is:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=1&p1=westbru01&p2=loveke01&p3=&p4=&p5=&p6=

Here we can see that both players have improved over their early years and are now playing better than their average for the first six years. But Love is still a more efficient scorer than WB eFG-.525:.457, and still has the edge in WS and WS 48.

No doubt WB works incredibly hard, is vastly more athletic and much more fun to watch than Love - it's why he's so popular. But as Bill James pointed out, and 'Moneyball' illustrated, the player who looks better isn't always the player who is better.

[cj]

I know well how you feel about WB and you know I like him a lot myself. Bird, Pippen, and Reggie Miller are among many who thought he deserved the MVP. Love himself says he's the NBA player he would most like to have on his team. And certainly the majority of NBA fans love WB and think of him as a far better player than Love. But is this really true?

Here are their career stats:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=1&p1=wiggian01&p2=mirotni01&p3=&p4=&p5=&p6=

They show one thing that everyone already knows - that Love is a much more efficient scorer. He's averaged 3 fewer fga per game while averaging only two fewer pts. - 21:19 pg. But what's most amazing is that, while demonstrating a much higher Offensive rtg per 100, 116-108,,thanks to this efficiency, and his defense has been only 1 pt. per 100 worse than WB, 106:105, who is considered a much better defender. In the most significant area - WS 48 - Love leads 18:14.5

Of course, you can say, their situations have been completely different - Love has been the go-to player on a .500 team that he had to carry, and WB has been the second option on a potential title contender. But this past season, their situations (thanks to chance) reversed and now Love was the third option on a title contender, and WB was the go-to player on a .500 (let's say .550) team. So let's compare them in close to identical situations - Love's 2013-14, and WB's 2014-15. Here it is:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=1&p1=westbru01&p2=loveke01&p3=&p4=&p5=&p6=

Here we can see that both players have improved over their early years and are now playing better than their average for the first six years. But Love is still a more efficient scorer than WB eFG-.525:.457, and still has the edge in WS and WS 48.

No doubt WB works incredibly hard, is vastly more athletic and much more fun to watch than Love - it's why he's so popular. But as Bill James pointed out, and 'Moneyball' illustrated, the player who looks better isn't always the player who is better.

Love was the best player on horrible teams. His stats are inflated, and he also is a "stats" watcher. Love isn't in my top 5 at his position, let alone one of the NBA elite. He is a good player, but at the same time he is horrible on defense.

I don't know anyone that considers Love's season last year as anything but ok at best.

[lansdale]

I know well how you feel about WB and you know I like him a lot myself. Bird, Pippen, and Reggie Miller are among many who thought he deserved the MVP. Love himself says he's the NBA player he would most like to have on his team. And certainly the majority of NBA fans love WB and think of him as a far better player than Love. But is this really true?

Here are their career stats:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=1&p1=wiggian01&p2=mirotni01&p3=&p4=&p5=&p6=

They show one thing that everyone already knows - that Love is a much more efficient scorer. He's averaged 3 fewer fga per game while averaging only two fewer pts. - 21:19 pg. But what's most amazing is that, while demonstrating a much higher Offensive rtg per 100, 116-108,,thanks to this efficiency, and his defense has been only 1 pt. per 100 worse than WB, 106:105, who is considered a much better defender. In the most significant area - WS 48 - Love leads 18:14.5

Of course, you can say, their situations have been completely different - Love has been the go-to player on a .500 team that he had to carry, and WB has been the second option on a potential title contender. But this past season, their situations (thanks to chance) reversed and now Love was the third option on a title contender, and WB was the go-to player on a .500 (let's say .550) team. So let's compare them in close to identical situations - Love's 2013-14, and WB's 2014-15. Here it is:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=1&p1=westbru01&p2=loveke01&p3=&p4=&p5=&p6=

Here we can see that both players have improved over their early years and are now playing better than their average for the first six years. But Love is still a more efficient scorer than WB eFG-.525:.457, and still has the edge in WS and WS 48.

No doubt WB works incredibly hard, is vastly more athletic and much more fun to watch than Love - it's why he's so popular. But as Bill James pointed out, and 'Moneyball' illustrated, the player who looks better isn't always the player who is better.

Sorry for posting the career stats twice in this post - the second link should be to this single-season comparison.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&y1=2014&p1=loveke01&y2=2015&p2=westbru01&p3=&p4=&p5=&p6=

[Robert Fischer]

These kind of things are never as simple as the paper comparison.

I'm partial to an efficient player just about every time over a volume shooter.

One thing you have to do when thinking of real life is to find other areas that generate that physicality. A lot more than statistical efficiency on the table when talking about real life rosters and Love vs. Westbrook.

Love also showed some question marks with the Cavs. It threw much of his Minnesota numbers into question. Is he just a guy who can line up at PF and stretch the defense with some solid offense, or is he the guy he looked like statistically in Minnesota? How much of that was having everything scripted around him on a mediocre team?

I'm not crazy about Westbrook, but Love has a lot of questions, and will have to prove that he wasn't over-rated from playing in a flattering position.