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przytula
06-23-2015, 04:23 PM
Hello,

Let me start off by thanking PA for granting me permission to post this thread. Thank you, Sir!

I've been playing around with the idea of starting a handicapping training site and wanted to hear some opinions.

I currently work for a popular poker training site and have a solid understanding of how such a site would function and operate. I just don't know if a handicapping site would draw enough interest to be profitable.

Basically, the target starting out would be five videos per week. Each video would be approximately 30 minutes in length.

The site would cover mostly Thoroughbred with some harness sprinkled in. But I would try to mix in content on topics such as money management and psychology that should appeal to any horse player.

As far as instructors, that is one of the challenges. With my current job, we actively seek new instructors all the time and vet them to the best of our ability. I would do the same for this site.

So here are my primary questions:

1. Would a handicapping training site appeal to you?

2. Would $35/month seem reasonable to you if the content was solid?

3. Is there and/or was there ever a site doing this? I haven't been able to find one.

I would also love to hear any additional thoughts you'd care to share.

Again, let me stress that this is an idea that's in the beginning stages. This would be a pretty big undertaking. My biggest fear is investing the time and money only to find out that there's not much interest.

Thank you for taking the time to share your thoughts!

-lee

ultracapper
06-23-2015, 04:49 PM
I think getting paying customers would be a real challenge without a very powerful syllabus. Horseplayers, experienced or novice, are going to really want to know what they're getting for their dollars.

Stillriledup
06-23-2015, 05:38 PM
I agree with UC on the paying customers,there's a LOT of free content out there, so what you sell has to be something so good that it can't be gotten for free, that's the challenge.

DeltaLover
06-23-2015, 06:17 PM
I have voted NO.

I am well aware that similar sites exist for poker and based on what I have heard some of them are really good and also attract a lot of customers.

I do not think the concept of a training site is going to work equally well for horse (or sports) betting, assuming of course that we are talking about mutual pools, as is the case for Northern America.

A poker hand can be easily described using standard concepts, that cover not only the action of the hand but the type of the opponents, given the available information. Based on this description, we can make a lot of research and discover the correct ways to play, so we will be able to quickly make up our minds when we will find ourselves in similar situations in the past. The mathematical part of this game, makes things even more suitable for analysis; there exist many simulators that can quickly estimate range over range calculations and provide accurate and reproducible information, that will be acceptable as correct by the majority of the pros.

Horse betting, is completely different.

The data are available to everyone before the race and also everyone can make a bet in any race he likes to. This means, that there is very little left for an educational site, since what counts way more, is a service that will advice for the actual betting of current events.

Of course, what I anticipate to be the most important problem with this kind of an approach, is that it will be very easy for its clients, to detect that it not really able to beat the game (if this was not the case, then the service provider would had been better off keeping for himself of course)...

More than this, verifying a specific handicapping idea, does not appear to be a simple task. Judging from my experience, talking with many players in person and even more of them here in PA, it is impossible to arrive to a universal conclusion, even for the most trivial things, that can be proved by applying simple statistics to well defined data and processes. It seems to be that among horse bettors, there are way more contradictory theories and even worse than this, it is also impossible to even agree in the proper methodology to resolve opposite approaches.

To get back to the original question of this thread, the only way somebody could convince me to subscribe to this kind of a service, would be, to prove to me with objective criteria that he is able to beat the game for a substantial ROI and also provide me his insides about how he is doing it.

proximity
06-23-2015, 07:01 PM
3. Is there and/or was there ever a site doing this? I haven't been able to find one.

-lee

i agree with delta that it's just different than poker.

in book form though i think quinn kinda tried to do this with the abc's of thoroughbred handicapping.

lee? you don't play at horseshoe baltimore do you??

mrroyboy
06-23-2015, 08:27 PM
I know who you are. I am
a long time member of CR. I love your videos. Funny and educational.
If you can do the same for horseracing I think it would be great. I don't think $35 per month would be too much.

PhantomOnTour
06-23-2015, 11:38 PM
Doesn't Dave Schwartz kind of do this already?

I know he has lots of instructional/tutorial videos...maybe those are just for using his products?
Not sure if he offers straight tutorials on pace, speed, class etc.

acorn54
06-23-2015, 11:43 PM
i think mike pizzolla also sells training videos on handicapping also.

thaskalos
06-24-2015, 05:17 AM
I voted yes. I had been a long-time, very satisfied subscriber to a poker training site...and I only stopped subscribing because of the changed gambling laws. I would gladly pay $35 (or more) a month to be able to watch over the shoulder of a competent player...as he dissects a race, and explains his thinking process, in a step by step format. I have been playing this game seriously for over 30 years...but I am not yet too old to learn a new thing or two.

My suggestion is to choose your instructors carefully...and to insist on practical, usable handicapping and betting analysis...and not the vague, overly-theoretical type that so often clutters the pages of horseracing online forums everywhere. Handicapping theories are a dime a dozen...and the same can be said of all the "data" that everybody talks about. What's missing is a rational, intelligent way of merging theory and practice...so the observer could see how the expert player plies his trade...and how he converts his handicapping opinions into betting decisions at the betting window.

If I were you...I would fund an ADW account just for the purpose of this new business venture...and I would handicap and wager in real time...keeping the site's bet logs as proof that I am actually placing the wagers that my handicapping analysis has pre-selected. The wagers could be tiny in size...but they must be made before-hand...and they must be representative of the thinking process which preceded them. Keep everything visible and above-board...and never offer excuses for the many losing days that you are sure to encounter. Building credibility is the key.

I hope you follow through with your idea...and I wish you luck. :ThmbUp:

Capper Al
06-24-2015, 07:19 AM
Good luck. The audience will be a tough sell. You'll need definitive instruction to teach for a subject matter that isn't definitive.

DeltaLover
06-24-2015, 08:35 AM
If I were you...I would fund an ADW account just for the purpose of this new business venture...and I would handicap and wager in real time...keeping the site's bet logs as proof that I am actually placing the wagers that my handicapping analysis has pre-selected.

I ain’t happening any time soon Thask... He, who might posses the ability to show a positive betting return, will not have any interest in exposing his practices to the wide public; doing so, will quickly function against his edge, turning him to a loser in a matter of a few months.

przytula
06-24-2015, 09:01 AM
I know who you are. I am
a long time member of CR. I love your videos. Funny and educational.
Thanks, mrroyboy! I appreciate that a lot.


lee? you don't play at horseshoe baltimore do you??
Different lee. I'm in Syracuse :)

barn32
06-24-2015, 09:28 AM
I ain’t happening any time soon Thask... He, who might posses the ability to show a positive betting return, will not have any interest in exposing his practices to the wide public; doing so, will quickly function against his edge, turning him to a loser in a matter of a few months.The exact same thing could be said for poker, yet those idiots are giving away the store and teaching people things that literally take years to learn at the table.

It's a complete mystery to me why successful poker players would teach others the tricks of the trade. But they do--a lot of them.

Back when I was cutting my eye teeth on the game nobody told nobody nothin.

The first rule of poker is that you never educate the competition.

But that truck has already left the yard.

Of course a horse racing training site would be successful. Why wouldn't it be if successful horse players are doing the training.

egreen
06-24-2015, 09:49 AM
Why don't you try to incorporate a handicapping training section into the poker site you're already working for? That would be far less expensive to launch and you could test the waters with an audience that has a similar demographic and interests. There are plenty of synergies between racing and poker and I'm assuming the site's clientele are already conditioned to paying for instructional content. Horseplayers already know where to find loads of free handicapping info.

DeltaLover
06-24-2015, 10:02 AM
The exact same thing could be said for poker, yet those idiots are giving away the store and teaching people things that literally take years to learn at the table.

It's a complete mystery to me why successful poker players would teach others the tricks of the trade. But they do--a lot of them.

Back when I was cutting my eye teeth on the game nobody told nobody nothin.

The first rule of poker is that you never educate the competition.

But that truck has already left the yard.

Of course a horse racing training site would be successful. Why wouldn't it be if successful horse players are doing the training.

There are similarities but it is not the exact same thing as you say here.

The difference occurs in the fact that in poker you can always choose your competition while in horse racing (at least when it comes to mutual betting) you do not have this option.

LottaKash
06-24-2015, 12:06 PM
The difference occurs in the fact that in poker you can always choose your competition while in horse racing (at least when it comes to mutual betting) you do not have this option.

I disagree somewhat with that general statement...

I have my go to tracks, the ones that I play first and foremost, and these are the tracks where I have the most success at in a regular and ongoing basis...So is it the competition that wagers there, or is it that the handicapping works so much better there, or both ?...Mostly, with my way of going, I say the "competition"..I know which tracks they are, for me, so I have the "option" to play there or at another less lucrative venue (based on my own records)...

DeltaLover
06-24-2015, 12:16 PM
I disagree somewhat with that general statement...

I have my go to tracks, the ones that I play first and foremost, and these are the tracks where I have the most success at in a regular and ongoing basis...So is it the competition that wagers there, or is it that the handicapping works so much better there, or both ?...Mostly, with my way of going, I say the "competition"..I know which tracks they are, for me, so I have the "option" to play there or at another less lucrative venue (based on my own records)...


In poker you can shop around for easy tables with a lot of rookies and try to get advantage of them as long as you can. The same does not apply to horse racing, where anyone can bet on any pool regardless of where he is located..

LottaKash
06-24-2015, 12:25 PM
In poker you can shop around for easy tables with a lot of rookies and try to get advantage of them as long as you can. The same does not apply to horse racing, where anyone can bet on any pool regardless of where he is located..

Easy Table, or Easy Track, I think that they are the same thing...

I have noticed that there are some tracks that the whales and not many sharks are just not attracted to (I am talking Harness Racing tho)....Consequently the competition is less keen and/or knowledgeable at those venues...This fact alone makes it easier to spot the "smarter money" as well, imo...

ReplayRandall
06-24-2015, 12:30 PM
In poker you can shop around for easy tables with a lot of rookies and try to get advantage of them as long as you can. The same does not apply to horse racing, where anyone can bet on any pool regardless of where he is located..

I shop around for value and find it more frequently at Indiana Downs, Delaware, Mountaineer, Lone Star and even at Will Rogers Downs. Too many sharp big bettors at the major tracks, make it more difficult to find as many value plays.......

Dave Schwartz
06-24-2015, 12:52 PM
I shop around for value and find it more frequently at Indiana Downs, Delaware, Mountaineer, Lone Star and even at Will Rogers Downs. Too many sharp big bettors at the major tracks, make it more difficult to find as many value plays.......

Just goes to show that everyone is different, as I find exactly the opposite.

I find that the higher the rebate (which generally correlates with smaller track size), the stiffer the competition.

ReplayRandall
06-24-2015, 01:04 PM
Just goes to show that everyone is different, as I find exactly the opposite.

I find that the higher the rebate (which generally correlates with smaller track size), the stiffer the competition.

Dave, you might want to take a look again. This past year has been great for me, but to each his own......

thaskalos
06-24-2015, 01:21 PM
Horseplayers already know where to find loads of free handicapping info.
Usually, the "free" information that you get is worth about as much as you pay for it. Is there a site currently where a successful horseplayer is videotaping himself as he goes about his day's business...while he fully explains the steps that he takes and the decisions that he makes?

There is a guy by the name of Bob Hoffman, who does a similar thing with stock trading. He charges members a per/month fee...and he allows them to watch over his shoulder as he goes through his trading day. His members have access to his screens, and the tools that he uses...plus, they receive the benefit of actually watching a skilled, disciplined trader... plying his trade in "real time". Listening or reading about handicapping is one thing...but actually getting to watch a winning player up close, and seeing what it REALLY takes to beat this game? That type of instruction is a cut above, IMO. I was a Bob Hoffman customer for years, and I was paying him $300 a month. It was worth it...and I was a fool to terminate my membership.

They do it for poker, and they do it for stocks, so...why can't it work for horse racing? True...you won't get the type of set-up that Hoffman has for just $35 a month...but a dollar a day is a bargain when you actually get to WATCH as gambling lessons are being put into play, in real time. It's the next best thing to having a mentor...IMO.

But, where do you get the instructors...and how do you convince them to open up their playbooks?

thaskalos
06-24-2015, 01:25 PM
Dave, you might want to take a look again. This past year has been great for me, but to each his own......
Are you doing something different this past year?

przytula
06-24-2015, 02:50 PM
Usually, the "free" information that you get is worth about as much as you pay for it.
I agree. There's three main reasons people pay for online training:

1. Better learning experience
2. Convenience
3. Trust

This is why Lynda.com has over 1 million subscribers when everything they teach can be found somewhere on the internet.

But, where do you get the instructors?
It starts with one and you go from there. Lots of networking. Good players know other good players so you'll often get recommendations, etc. It would take some time.

and how do you convince them to open up their playbooks?
It depends on the person. Some will think that they are taking money out of their pockets and wouldn't ever consider being an instructor. Others will think that in the grand scheme of things, it really wouldn't make a difference.

You also have control over what you want to share too though. I've known quite a few poker players who didn't want to share their "secrets". But the truth is, there are no secrets. The real secret is that it's hard work to be a consistent winner.

I use to be an instructor for an poker training site. I loved it. I have always enjoyed teaching and found it to be very rewarding. The money was an added bonus. And the fact was, the majority of players watching my videos were low stakes players that weren't ever going to take a dime out of my pocket.

And trust me when I say that I could lay out a blue print on how to win at poker and 9 out of 10 people wouldn't be able to do it. Winning is not black and white and it takes a lot of hard work to be successful. I feel the same about horse racing.

But not everyone who signs up for a training site expects to be a winner or expects to learn the skills to be turned into a professional. A lot of people simply want to get better and/or become more knowledgeable. If they can cut their losses in half, then they consider that a huge success and they are happy.

And let me share a secret with you. If you want to really become great at something, try teaching it. It makes your brain operate on an entirely different level and makes you better than you could ever imagine.

thaskalos
06-24-2015, 03:26 PM
I agree. There's three main reasons people pay for online training:

1. Better learning experience
2. Convenience
3. Trust

This is why Lynda.com has over 1 million subscribers when everything they teach can be found somewhere on the internet.


It starts with one and you go from there. Lots of networking. Good players know other good players so you'll often get recommendations, etc. It would take some time.


It depends on the person. Some will think that they are taking money out of their pockets and wouldn't ever consider being an instructor. Others will think that in the grand scheme of things, it really wouldn't make a difference.

You also have control over what you want to share too though. I've known quite a few poker players who didn't want to share their "secrets". But the truth is, there are no secrets. The real secret is that it's hard work to be a consistent winner.

I use to be an instructor for an poker training site. I loved it. I have always enjoyed teaching and found it to be very rewarding. The money was an added bonus. And the fact was, the majority of players watching my videos were low stakes players that weren't ever going to take a dime out of my pocket.

And trust me when I say that I could lay out a blue print on how to win at poker and 9 out of 10 people wouldn't be able to do it. Winning is not black and white and it takes a lot of hard work to be successful. I feel the same about horse racing.

But not everyone who signs up for a training site expects to be a winner or expects to learn the skills to be turned into a professional. A lot of people simply want to get better and/or become more knowledgeable. If they can cut their losses in half, then they consider that a huge success and they are happy.

And let me share a secret with you. If you want to really become great at something, try teaching it. It makes your brain operate on an entirely different level and makes you better than you could ever imagine.
I agree with everything that you say here, and, as I've said before...I hope that you follow through with this idea of yours...and I wish you a lot of luck. I promise to be one of your first subscribers. :ThmbUp:

barn32
06-24-2015, 03:44 PM
And let me share a secret with you. If you want to really become great at something, try teaching it. It makes your brain operate on an entirely different level and makes you better than you could ever imagine.You have 5 posts, yet you've been here since 2012. Do you play the horses at all? Is it a hobby?

The only question I have is how are you going to find a professional horse player? I mean, how are you going to know he is successful?

And customers are going to want winners. Long drawn out dry spells won't get many subscribers. Poker players, good ones, win most of the time. At least two times out of three. Horse players can go empty much, much longer than that and still be successful. So how you're going to go about finding these people is a mystery to me.

You don't have to sit behind a professional poker player for very long to know if he is any good or not...as well as being a good teacher. With horseracing...that's a different story.

But good luck none-the-less.

przytula
06-24-2015, 04:34 PM
You have 5 posts, yet you've been here since 2012.
Long time listener, first time caller. And now I have six ;)

Do you play the horses at all? Is it a hobby?
I played a lot when I was younger. But I don't have the time to take it as seriously as I'd like.

The only question I have is how are you going to find a professional horse player? I mean, how are you going to know he is successful?
That was actually your third and forth questions :)

I mentioned earlier that you have to vet people. That said, I've met some brilliant poker players that couldn't teach to save their life.

I've also met some brilliant poker players that were excellent teachers but they struggled to make money because their money management and emotional control at the tables were garbage.

And customers are going to want winners.
This wouldn't be a picks site. This would be a site where people share how they think about and approach handicapping. Picking winners is your job.

Poker players, good ones, win most of the time.
I wish that was true. No matter how good you are, you're not good enough to dodge variance. And variance is a huge part of poker and any game that involves chance.

It's not uncommon for winning players to go through losing streaks that last 100k to 300k hands. It happens.

That said, what matters is your win rate per hour (if you're a live player) or bb/100 if you're an online player. If you're an MTT or SNG player, it comes down to ROI.

As a general rule, as you move up in stakes, your competition increases and your win rate decreases.

Capper Al
06-24-2015, 04:49 PM
I'd look at the website, but as I think about this I'd rather lose my money on my own at the track than pay someone to help me lose my money.

whodoyoulike
06-24-2015, 05:36 PM
...
This wouldn't be a picks site. This would be a site where people share how they think about and approach handicapping. Picking winners is your job...

I initially was hoping that this site was going to be that type of site.

cutchemist42
06-25-2015, 10:42 AM
I voted yes. I had been a long-time, very satisfied subscriber to a poker training site...and I only stopped subscribing because of the changed gambling laws. I would gladly pay $35 (or more) a month to be able to watch over the shoulder of a competent player...as he dissects a race, and explains his thinking process, in a step by step format. I have been playing this game seriously for over 30 years...but I am not yet too old to learn a new thing or two.

My suggestion is to choose your instructors carefully...and to insist on practical, usable handicapping and betting analysis...and not the vague, overly-theoretical type that so often clutters the pages of horseracing online forums everywhere. Handicapping theories are a dime a dozen...and the same can be said of all the "data" that everybody talks about. What's missing is a rational, intelligent way of merging theory and practice...so the observer could see how the expert player plies his trade...and how he converts his handicapping opinions into betting decisions at the betting window.

If I were you...I would fund an ADW account just for the purpose of this new business venture...and I would handicap and wager in real time...keeping the site's bet logs as proof that I am actually placing the wagers that my handicapping analysis has pre-selected. The wagers could be tiny in size...but they must be made before-hand...and they must be representative of the thinking process which preceded them. Keep everything visible and above-board...and never offer excuses for the many losing days that you are sure to encounter. Building credibility is the key.

I hope you follow through with your idea...and I wish you luck. :ThmbUp:

Yeah I agree with this post.

I've never done poker training sites, but I know results have been good for people who have. I would find it interesting to watch over the shoulder too of a top horseplayer. I love reading and participating in race dissection threads here, and would like that aspect of a social discussion. Horseplayernow has decent chats for Woodbines on Wed and Mtn on Tuesday that I participate in for that reason.

Capper Al
06-25-2015, 12:36 PM
Yeah I agree with this post.

I've never done poker training sites, but I know results have been good for people who have. I would find it interesting to watch over the shoulder too of a top horseplayer. I love reading and participating in race dissection threads here, and would like that aspect of a social discussion. Horseplayernow has decent chats for Woodbines on Wed and Mtn on Tuesday that I participate in for that reason.

I'm curious. What's the format for these chats? Do we handicap the races and compare notes before the races? Or do we show up ten minutes before post and watch the master play?

Thanks

przytula
06-25-2015, 01:22 PM
Horseplayernow has decent chats for Woodbines on Wed and Mtn on Tuesday that I participate in for that reason.
This is something I've thought about for the training site. Maybe not for specific tracks, but a general live Q&A a couple of times per month with a different instructor where people can ask random questions.

A definite however would be a comment section where members could ask the instructor specific questions. This is an important element to a training site, IMO.

DeltaLover
06-25-2015, 01:46 PM
This is something I've thought about for the training site. Maybe not for specific tracks, but a general live Q&A a couple of times per month with a different instructor where people can ask random questions.

A definite however would be a comment section where members could ask the instructor specific questions. This is an important element to a training site, IMO.

Where are you going to find your instructors? As far as a general live Q&A, what makes you to believe (and more important how are you planing to convince your subscribers) that your expert will be able to provide a better and more accurate response, that a similar thread that might be going here in PA?

In my opinion, the "training site" you are talking about, already exists (free of cost) and can be found here (http://paceadvantage.com/)

thaskalos
06-25-2015, 02:11 PM
In my opinion, the "training site" you are talking about, already exists (free of cost) and can be found here (http://paceadvantage.com/)
I can't agree with you on this, DL. How can this forum be considered a "training site"...when the "instructors" here never agree on anything...nor do they ever offer any real "instruction"? Whenever someone offers an opinion here, TWO contrasting opinions appear soon thereafter...a debate ensues where neither side presents any real facts...and then the thread suffers an unceremonious death...without any real point having been made.

This isn't a "training site"; it's a bunch of like-minded individuals...who enjoy getting together and arguing about every single aspect of this game. The newcomer who visits here must feel way more confused than "instructed"...IMO. :)

DeltaLover
06-25-2015, 02:33 PM
I can't agree with you on this, DL. How can this forum be considered a "training site"...when the "instructors" here never agree on anything...nor do they ever offer any real "instruction"? Whenever someone offers an opinion here, TWO contrasting opinions appear soon thereafter...a debate ensues where neither side presents any real facts...and then the thread suffers an unceremonious death...without any real point having been made.

This isn't a "training site"; it's a bunch of like-minded individuals...who enjoy getting together and arguing about every single aspect of this game. The newcomer who visits here must feel way more confused than "instructed"...IMO. :)

When it comes to horses, It still is the best Q&A site you can find on earth...

cutchemist42
06-25-2015, 02:49 PM
I'm curious. What's the format for these chats? Do we handicap the races and compare notes before the races? Or do we show up ten minutes before post and watch the master play?

Thanks

They open up a chat box to discuss the racecard, Brisnet Ultimate is provided for all the races. Usually 15-20 people chatting about the races, both pre and post.

Poindexter
06-25-2015, 02:54 PM
I can't agree with you on this, DL. How can this forum be considered a "training site"...when the "instructors" here never agree on anything...nor do they ever offer any real "instruction"? Whenever someone offers an opinion here, TWO contrasting opinions appear soon thereafter...a debate ensues where neither side presents any real facts...and then the thread suffers an unceremonious death...without any real point having been made.

This isn't a "training site"; it's a bunch of like-minded individuals...who enjoy getting together and arguing about every single aspect of this game. The newcomer who visits here must feel way more confused than "instructed"...IMO. :)


Welcome to Horse Racing. We all do what works for us (or what we think works for us) and what we are willing to do. I am a pen and paper and replay capper and have no complaints whatsoever. I like focusing on value and making odds lines yet some consistent winners(yourself include) think that is an act of futility. Some guys think it is all about databases and modeling. Others think you need 5 years of higher math just to have a shot. Some like to have computers do all the work. Others think it is about watching replays and gallop outs and physicality. Some players think it is about betting 3 races a week conservatively and pounding. Others swing for the fences in the exotics and super exotics while others play very many races. What makes one person right and the other wrong. Nothing. What works for someone else, may not work for you and what works for you may not work for me.....................................I cannot see a site like this working only because I think most horse players have pretty strong opinions and likely are not going to be impressed enough by the so-called expert whoever he is to even try it. I do not think it is financial. The $30 or $35 a month is nothing in the racing world. I just am not sure a whole of horse players are going to invest the time and energy to be trained by an expert unless they are really sold that he/she is the real deal and even then are they really able to duplicate the success of the pro? We have discussed before that capping is not the major determinant of whether ones or loses. It is a vital, but the difference between the winners and the loses goes far beyond capping. I am not saying it is a bad idea to have a training course. Just not sold a lot of horse players will sign up. But then again I could be wrong. Wouldn't be the first time.

LottaKash
06-25-2015, 02:55 PM
Where are you going to find your instructors? here (http://paceadvantage.com/)

I've asked myself the same question...

What would be his/her qualifications be, and how could they instill confidence to shell out some kash via those qualifications...?

I have read many numerous books, and have been to many a seminar, and yet, in the end, I still had to find my own way to find my own modest success...

Why would this training site be any different from all of the others ?

I have learned some valuable lessons thru the years, and nowadays I am very reluctant to share any of those with any others.... They and you, are my competition at the windows...

Another training site for sure would further aid those haven't come so far as some of us, but me not interested, so I voted no...

There is already so much valuable stuff available if one wants and will spend the time to make it their own...There are no shortcuts to wagering success, and I suspect this "new" training site would be no different that what has already preceded it...Jmo tho..

przytula
06-25-2015, 03:12 PM
Where are you going to find your instructors? As far as a general live Q&A, what makes you to believe (and more important how are you planing to convince your subscribers) that your expert will be able to provide a better and more accurate response, that a similar thread that might be going here in PA?

In my opinion, the "training site" you are talking about, already exists (free of cost) and can be found here (http://paceadvantage.com/)
First of all, as I mentioned in the original post, this is just an idea at this point. I am simply trying to get a feel for what people think of the idea. I'm still not convinced that this would be a viable business. And finding instructors will be perhaps my biggest challenge.

Secondly, you seem a bit hostile and I'm not sure why. You've made it clear from the get-go that you're not a fan of the idea. Thank you for your input. It really is appreciated. But you're obvious not my target audience. By all accounts, you seem to be a successful handicapper. Good for you.

However, this sport is full of people who are at different stages in their handicapping journey. Perhaps a training site would be beneficial to them. Maybe not. That's ultimately up for them to decide. PA is a great resource and free is tough to beat. A training site would simply be another option for people seeking education.

In the job I currently have, I see the value in online training. I live it everyday. Whether that same experience would transfer over to handicapping is the mystery I'm trying to figure out. But I think it would.

Thank you again for sharing your thoughts.

przytula
06-25-2015, 03:23 PM
the difference between the winners and the loses goes far beyond capping.
I couldn't agree more. The content would also include topics such as money management and psychology. This is equally important for success.

Thank you for sharing your thoughts :)

DeltaLover
06-25-2015, 03:23 PM
First of all, as I mentioned in the original post, this is just an idea at this point. I am simply trying to get a feel for what people think of the idea. I'm still not convinced that this would be a viable business. And finding instructors will be perhaps my biggest challenge.

Secondly, you seem a bit hostile and I'm not sure why. You've made it clear from the get-go that you're not a fan of the idea. Thank you for your input. It really is appreciated. But you're obvious not my target audience. By all accounts, you seem to be a successful handicapper. Good for you.

However, this sport is full of people who are at different stages in their handicapping journey. Perhaps a training site would be beneficial to them. Maybe not. That's ultimately up for them to decide. PA is a great resource and free is tough to beat. A training site would simply be another option for people seeking education.

In the job I currently have, I see the value in online training. I live it everyday. Whether that same experience would transfer over to handicapping is the mystery I'm trying to figure out. But I think it would.

Thank you again for sharing your thoughts.

Hostile? Not by any means... Sceptic yes..

Anyway, I think that horse racing has a lot of room for technology innovations but "training" to be one of them...

For example. as an entrepreneur, you should think about creating interactive communities that will allow sharing structured data over the web, develop master mind handicapper solutions, keeping historical data containing data that are missing from equibase etc.

Binder
06-25-2015, 03:33 PM
When I first began paceandcap.com My intention was to make it a online
continuation of Doc Sartin's Follow Up journal
Basically the intent was to make a Sartin Methodology training website.
Things started out well but as was mentioned when ever somebody
offered a lesson it was soon followed by a counter opinion lesson and
everybody just fended for them self
Ted Craven runs pace and cap now And it's a nice handicapping forum .
Where general handicapping, using RDSS ,and the match up have long since
evolved . There are still some training post but they end up flawed with too
many opinions.
People share ideas but it's done privately more than openly in the forum

przytula
06-25-2015, 03:34 PM
Hostile? Not by any means... Sceptic yes
My apologies.

And I'm skeptical too :)

whodoyoulike
06-25-2015, 03:58 PM
They open up a chat box to discuss the racecard, Brisnet Ultimate is provided for all the races. Usually 15-20 people chatting about the races, both pre and post.

There's a Chat feature on this site --- see the above menu bar options.

It hasn't been used in awhile. Last time was for a major race a number of years ago. Maybe, someone can comment on how it went or it's usefulness or whether it was helpful to them.

traynor
06-25-2015, 04:36 PM
I ain’t happening any time soon Thask... He, who might posses the ability to show a positive betting return, will not have any interest in exposing his practices to the wide public; doing so, will quickly function against his edge, turning him to a loser in a matter of a few months.

Quite so. Which leaves the instruction to essentially reiterate what (most) already know--and such would eliminate those most willing to pay as potential clients. It is a good idea, for novices. It would be a better idea if it were not a replica of the "talking heads" model of instruction.

I don't mind listening to people talk--providing they tell me something I don't already know, tell me something I can use immediately to my benefit, and don't go droning off trying to impress me with their "expertise" (most of which impresses me not at all, and tends to extinguish both my interest and attention span).

traynor
06-25-2015, 04:44 PM
I'd look at the website, but as I think about this I'd rather lose my money on my own at the track than pay someone to help me lose my money.

That is a great collection of words to express a deeply profound insight.

thaskalos
06-25-2015, 05:09 PM
Welcome to Horse Racing. We all do what works for us (or what we think works for us) and what we are willing to do. I am a pen and paper and replay capper and have no complaints whatsoever. I like focusing on value and making odds lines yet some consistent winners(yourself include) think that is an act of futility. Some guys think it is all about databases and modeling. Others think you need 5 years of higher math just to have a shot. Some like to have computers do all the work. Others think it is about watching replays and gallop outs and physicality. Some players think it is about betting 3 races a week conservatively and pounding. Others swing for the fences in the exotics and super exotics while others play very many races. What makes one person right and the other wrong. Nothing. What works for someone else, may not work for you and what works for you may not work for me.....................................I cannot see a site like this working only because I think most horse players have pretty strong opinions and likely are not going to be impressed enough by the so-called expert whoever he is to even try it. I do not think it is financial. The $30 or $35 a month is nothing in the racing world. I just am not sure a whole of horse players are going to invest the time and energy to be trained by an expert unless they are really sold that he/she is the real deal and even then are they really able to duplicate the success of the pro? We have discussed before that capping is not the major determinant of whether ones or loses. It is a vital, but the difference between the winners and the loses goes far beyond capping. I am not saying it is a bad idea to have a training course. Just not sold a lot of horse players will sign up. But then again I could be wrong. Wouldn't be the first time.

I enjoy talking horses with knowledgeable people...and I also enjoy listening to smart people when they choose to teach what they know about the game. I like to think that I've been in the game long enough to be able to tell which player is the "real thing", and who is just blowing smoke...and I honestly would pay money to engage in a detailed conversation with some of the better players whom I have encountered in this game. And this includes some of the members of this site too. I would easily pay money to converse with Cj about figure handicapping; or with my friend DeltaLover about data bases and computer models; with Traynor about the psychological aspects of the game; or with Ted Craven about the modern advances made in the Sartin Methodology. I would also pay and go out of my way to engage in a roundtable discussion with the guys that I've mentioned above...plus smart players like The Little Guy, TrifectaMike, Mountainman, Mike (the administrator here), EMD4ME, Dave Schwartz, Raybo, Overlay, Pandy...and some others to whom I apologize profusely for forgetting them at the moment. This site is great, and we get into some very worthwhile discussions here...but this texting and posting business isn't enough of an interaction when someone is as passionate about this game as I happen to be.

This isn't just a game to me, it's a LIFESTYLE...and it has taken over a large part of my life. And, as I get older, and my other recreational options get fewer...I wouldn't mind if I spent even more time occupying myself with this game that I love. Even if it stands to cost me a little bit of money.

There aren't enough new developments in the handicapping and betting fronts of this game, as far as I am concerned...and I applaud all ideas and efforts to rectify this sad situation. The gambling masses need to be better informed so they can get a bigger bang for their buck in this game...otherwise, we all lose in the end.

DeltaLover
06-25-2015, 05:44 PM
This isn't just a game to me, it's a LIFESTYLE...and it has taken over a large part of my life.

This says it all :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

Cratos
06-25-2015, 07:45 PM
I voted yes because it is my belief that many horseplayers play this game with the anticipation of winning through the ignorance of science.

Maybe I am wrong; I don’t think you are inferring that your “teaching website” would be one which would teach newcomers how to win, but how to understand some fundamental misconceptions of this game that are carryovers from yesteryear.

Handicapping and gambling are interrelated in the playing of horseracing if not interdependent on each other, but the only science in gambling is the mathematics or probabilities and that is why the racetrack always wins with its “pari-mutuel take”, they (the racetrack) know that over a given time they're guaranteed to win due to probability.

Whereas handicapping is not an exact science like mathematics, it does use many of the precepts of science to explain and predict a horse’s performance and that is where I think a teaching website would have value; debunking some misunderstandings and misconceptions in horseracing that can be explained by science.

How much is this worth and who will be the instructor(s)?

That is a major, but not impossible challenge which I think would well worth the effort to the entrepreneur and the racing industry.

ReplayRandall
06-25-2015, 09:21 PM
Handicapping and gambling are interrelated in the playing of horseracing if not interdependent on each other, but the only science in gambling is the mathematics or probabilities and that is why the racetrack always wins with its “pari-mutuel take”, they (the racetrack) know that over a given time they're guaranteed to win due to probability.
You misspoke here Cratos, probability over a given time is a casino dynamic. Racetracks are not at risk, except for minus show pools, and take their guaranteed profit or vig, each and every race....

Cratos
06-25-2015, 10:29 PM
You misspoke here Cratos, probability over a given time is a casino dynamic. Racetracks are not at risk, except for minus show pools, and take their guaranteed profit or vig, each and every race....
You are correct, the only "risk" to the racetrack is the minus pool and by rule that is not a risk because the track always take a percent of each dollar wagered which is greater than the guaranteed 5% minimum payout to the bettor.

Robert Fischer
06-26-2015, 09:23 AM
So here are my primary questions:

1. Would a handicapping training site appeal to you?

2. Would $35/month seem reasonable to you if the content was solid?

3. Is there and/or was there ever a site doing this? I haven't been able to find one.

I would also love to hear any additional thoughts you'd care to share.

Again, let me stress that this is an idea that's in the beginning stages. This would be a pretty big undertaking. My biggest fear is investing the time and money only to find out that there's not much interest.

Thank you for taking the time to share your thoughts!

-lee


I don't really see a great market for it. I would guess that it would be a failed business venture.

The one aspect where I do see some potential would be 'tournament strategy'.
If you could do a combination of promoting major tournaments(perhaps there is a small bit of revenue or trade inherent in simply promoting major tournaments as a bonus, as well?) , and then sell your 'tournament strategy' courses, at least you would have some chance.

As far as training for standard horseplaying? You will need a gimmick. You will need to incorporate things that make members feel they are a part of a special 'club' with special insight, and provide a social and entertainment aspect for that $35. Even then, it will be a struggle. Much like horseplaying itself, the question then arises that if you have that much insight and ability, and you are properly funded, why in the world are you investing in a horseplaying training website?

Everyone thinks they know the horse racing game. There is a lot of denial and a lot of excuses that strongly intertwine with the player population's awareness level.
A site like Paceadvantage is great. You have a social aspect. Someone can post an actual game-changing insight for let's say something random like 'turf sprints', and it will soon be buried with opinions and popular notions and authority statements. No turf sprint money was harmed in the making of that thread. Everybody got to go through the mental exercise. One or two posters posted an actual insight.

Very few players want to address the realities and the challenge of horseplaying.
Most would rather bet their $35 on the first couple races than address those weaknesses honestly, even if you did beat the long odds of having some actual insights to sell.

Again, if you must go through with such a venture, I would concentrate on a combination of promoting tournaments and teaching tournament play, and failing that, I would use some gimmicks to incorporate some sort of esoteric social aspect into the handicapping 'class', so that users would be sufficiently satisfied from their membership as to overlook the limitations of the deal itself.

pondman
06-26-2015, 01:45 PM
I'd have to ask if the person running the site actually makes any money while betting horses. There are a 50 different approaches to the game, and so there isn't a best approach-- other than you've found a way. You better be able to show people that you, yourself, can make money consistently, or you just become another shill and stooge page.

Cratos
06-26-2015, 02:10 PM
I don't really see a great market for it. I would guess that it would be a failed business venture.

The one aspect where I do see some potential would be 'tournament strategy'.
If you could do a combination of promoting major tournaments(perhaps there is a small bit of revenue or trade inherent in simply promoting major tournaments as a bonus, as well?) , and then sell your 'tournament strategy' courses, at least you would have some chance.

As far as training for standard horseplaying? You will need a gimmick. You will need to incorporate things that make members feel they are a part of a special 'club' with special insight, and provide a social and entertainment aspect for that $35. Even then, it will be a struggle. Much like horseplaying itself, the question then arises that if you have that much insight and ability, and you are properly funded, why in the world are you investing in a horseplaying training website?

Everyone thinks they know the horse racing game. There is a lot of denial and a lot of excuses that strongly intertwine with the player population's awareness level.
A site like Paceadvantage is great. You have a social aspect. Someone can post an actual game-changing insight for let's say something random like 'turf sprints', and it will soon be buried with opinions and popular notions and authority statements. No turf sprint money was harmed in the making of that thread. Everybody got to go through the mental exercise. One or two posters posted an actual insight.

Very few players want to address the realities and the challenge of horseplaying.
Most would rather bet their $35 on the first couple races than address those weaknesses honestly, even if you did beat the long odds of having some actual insights to sell.

Again, if you must go through with such a venture, I would concentrate on a combination of promoting tournaments and teaching tournament play, and failing that, I would use some gimmicks to incorporate some sort of esoteric social aspect into the handicapping 'class', so that users would be sufficiently satisfied from their membership as to overlook the limitations of the deal itself.
I am not being cynical, but I am assuming that you have done the marketing research or have the marketing expertise to validate your assertions because similar comments were made about Fantasy Football and look at it today.

Horseracing growth today is very stagnated due to an inelastic demand curve and the group of potential fans that might change that are the millennials and. they come from the world of "digital technology" with better quantitative skills than their elders.

whodoyoulike
06-26-2015, 04:26 PM
I'd have to ask if the person running the site actually makes any money while betting horses. There are a 50 different approaches to the game, and so there isn't a best approach-- other than you've found a way. You better be able to show people that you, yourself, can make money consistently, or you just become another shill and stooge page.

I hope he responds to this post.

mickey_arnold
06-26-2015, 05:50 PM
Hate to say you are up against in your quest but try the following Internet search:
Studies on the Intelligence of Horserace Handicappers

As others have mentioned in this thread, some things are just not teachable and some things you are either born with or not.

Some people will find the stuff intriguing, some will find it discouraging and some both.

For all the readers of this thread who aren't familiar with these topics, it may be an eyeopener on what makes handicapping and wagering so, so difficult.


Here's a sample of articles:

What Gamblers and Weather Forecasters Can Teach Us About Risk http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/new_scientist/2012/05/risk_intelligence_how_gamblers_and_weather_forecas ters_assess_probabilities_.html

Analytics for the impossible

http://espn.go.com/horse-racing/story/_/id/13130496/analytics-impossible


Sporting Chances- The psychology of horse-race betting www.psychologytoday.com/blog/in-excess/201501/sporting-chances (www.psychologytoday.com/blog/in-excess/201501/sporting-chances)


Do You Really Need More Information?
(Includes An Experiment: Betting on the Horses ) https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/books-and-monographs/psychology-of-intelligence-analysis/art8.html

What are Cognitive Biases? https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/books-and-monographs/psychology-of-intelligence-analysis/art12.html

Nag, nag, nag: The psychology of horse-race betting

https://drmarkgriffiths.wordpress.com/2014/03/11/nag-nag-nag-the-psychology-of-horse-race-betting/

Books by Nassim Nicholas Taleb The Black Swan ; Fooled by Randomness ; The Bed of Procrustes

Wish I had read a lot of these articles and books (and more listed in the search results), for a better understanding of what I am and what I'm am not doing when I am handicapping.

TexasDolly
06-26-2015, 06:03 PM
It seems to me that there are 9000 people playing a race with 9 horses and in poker there are 9 people chasing 9000 (or more)
possible outcomes. I would very much like to play the races only facing 9 players for the stakes I prefer everyday from now on.
Thank you,
TD

przytula
06-26-2015, 06:13 PM
I'd have to ask if the person running the site actually makes any money while betting horses. There are a 50 different approaches to the game, and so there isn't a best approach-- other than you've found a way. You better be able to show people that you, yourself, can make money consistently, or you just become another shill and stooge page.
I'm not a professional handicapper. My background is in online poker both as an instructor, coach, and as a semi-professional player before Black Friday.

I've been working for an online poker training site for over 5 years which has provided me unique insight to how the training business works. I always wondered if the training model would transfer to handicapping. It's an idea I've been kicking around for a couple of years now.

So the model would be to seek out those who are professionals and have them do the teaching. There would be multiple instructors, each with their own methodology and insight. Every weekday, there would be a new video. It might be on the psychology of betting, money management, previewing a race, doing a race review, etc. It would obviously depend on the strength or specialty of the instructor and what they feel comfortable teaching.

In the poker world, we do what are called leakfinders where a pro reviews another persons play and tells them what their "leaks" are. Or basically, what they are doing right or wrong. I think that would be a fantastic learning tool for handicappers.

Would every video pertain to you? No. A subscriber would find that some videos interest them and others don't. But with 20+ new videos per month, the goal is to offer enough original content to justify the monthly subscription price while keeping everyone happy.

This wouldn't be a website where one person tries to sell "secrets". It would be a website where professional handicappers share how they think about and approach handicapping. Topics would stretch across the entire handicapping gamut.

My experience in poker has taught me that you can't teach people how to win. It's just more complicated than that. Learning to win isn't black and white. Some people don't have the personality or the psychological disposition to handle the ups and downs. Others don't have the work ethic. Bob might be wiling to put 40 hours a week into learning and improving his craft. Ted however is only willing to put 2 hours in. So how in the world is Ted ever going to improve enough to become a winning player? He's not. But try telling Ted that.

Like I mentioned earlier, everyone has different goals. For many people, if they can learn to lose less, better manage their money, pick an extra winner, or pass on an extra loser, then they are happy. Not everyone has the desire to go pro. I never had the desire to become a professional poker player. It's grueling work and mentally draining.

The best you can do is teach a person how to approach and think about the game. That is a tangible goal. In my opinion, it's also the key to progressing as a player.

The winning is up to the individual. Everyone needs to put their own time and sweat equity into figuring out what works for them. But having others share their experience and insight is extremely helpful in speeding up the learning process. It's also very motivational.

I'm not looking to be unethical or trick people out of their money. I have been part of the poker world now for the better part of ten years and have built a reputation. I am a person of integrity. But if this site were to be realized, there would be a free trial period. That way, people get to experience the site for free before committing any money. You can't be more transparent than that.

At the end of the day however, the site won't be for everyone. As the poll at the top of the page indicates, not everyone is interested. And even those who are interested might not even enjoy the content or find value. You can't be everything to everyone.

I understand the need/want to know that the person teaching on the other side of the screen knows what they are talking about. As I explained earlier in the thread, I would do my best to vet people. I would put together a small group to help with the vetting process. The ultimate BS detector however comes in the actual content they produce. I would never release content that I didn't think was valuable, truthful, and honest. But that decision is ultimately up to the customer.

Anyway, I hope this helps :)

mamaluke
06-26-2015, 06:24 PM
This is good advice for 95% of horseplayers including me

http://www.gamblingfactsandfictions.com/id29.htm

przytula
06-26-2015, 06:57 PM
This is good advice for 95% of horseplayers including me

http://www.gamblingfactsandfictions.com/id29.htm
From the article: "My problem was I loved horse racing too much and got addicted to it."

That's really all you need to know. But this thread isn't about whether people can make a living handicapping horses.

jk3521
06-26-2015, 07:06 PM
This is good advice for 95% of horseplayers including me

http://www.gamblingfactsandfictions.com/id29.htm


Jeez ! that guy's no fun . :D

mamaluke
06-26-2015, 07:58 PM
My problem was I loved horse racing too much and got addicted to it."
+++++++++++++++++++++++++

Agree
I am also a member of horseplayers ananymous

whodoyoulike
06-26-2015, 09:28 PM
Glad to see you've acknowledged it. Good for you, there's no just a little bit in certain things.

mickey_arnold
06-27-2015, 12:10 AM
Hello,

I've been playing around with the idea of starting a handicapping training site and wanted to hear some opinions...........

The site would cover mostly Thoroughbred with some harness sprinkled in. But I would try to mix in content on topics such as money management and psychology that should appeal to any horse player...............

-lee

I would love to be able to make suggestions about what topics would need to be included to instruct folks "how" to make selections or wagering decisions from a prescriptive standpoint is much harder than creating a list of "rules" to follow from a proscriptive perspective.

It's a matter of creative and holistic thinking vs. Reflexive and parochial actions. And in the former, there is a much smaller audience capable of invoking those cognitive and intuitive skills, in the latter, you have many more people that have the capacity to understand and invoke simple "rules". We are not talking here about "inclination" (although many would argue that that is innate also), just "ability".

Thirty-five years as a financial analyst and fraud investigator taught me that if I instruct the vast majority of people to analyze situations by just following analytical "rules" of discovering financial misdeeds, rather than attempting to teach them to be creative in uncovering financial shenanigans and recouping monies expended, the results will be much more fruitful for them and the agency employing us.

I learned the hard way, that in attempting to "teach" most people to be successful in any business (make no mistake, we are in the "business" of handicapping), "Keep it simple stupid".

Even in the Hebrew Talmud , which explicates the Old Testament, there are considered to be 613 Commandments, of which 365 are "positive" (what to do) versus 248 "negative" (what not to do). And "faith" in principles and prospective actions, play a significant role in the Psychology of Winning.

Sorry for the preaching, but the topic of this thread struck a chord.

Przytula, hope this is food for thought in thinking about all the facets of your possible venture. It promises to be some "adventure".

mickey_arnold
06-27-2015, 12:13 AM
Oops, wrote it backwards: 248 "positive" Commandments and 365 "negative"

whodoyoulike
06-27-2015, 12:33 AM
I thought it didn't sound correct.

cutchemist42
06-29-2015, 10:25 PM
Hate to say you are up against in your quest but try the following Internet search:
Studies on the Intelligence of Horserace Handicappers

As others have mentioned in this thread, some things are just not teachable and some things you are either born with or not.

Some people will find the stuff intriguing, some will find it discouraging and some both.

For all the readers of this thread who aren't familiar with these topics, it may be an eyeopener on what makes handicapping and wagering so, so difficult.


Here's a sample of articles:

What Gamblers and Weather Forecasters Can Teach Us About Risk http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/new_scientist/2012/05/risk_intelligence_how_gamblers_and_weather_forecas ters_assess_probabilities_.html

Analytics for the impossible

http://espn.go.com/horse-racing/story/_/id/13130496/analytics-impossible


Sporting Chances- The psychology of horse-race betting www.psychologytoday.com/blog/in-excess/201501/sporting-chances (www.psychologytoday.com/blog/in-excess/201501/sporting-chances)


Do You Really Need More Information?
(Includes An Experiment: Betting on the Horses ) https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/books-and-monographs/psychology-of-intelligence-analysis/art8.html

What are Cognitive Biases? https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/books-and-monographs/psychology-of-intelligence-analysis/art12.html

Nag, nag, nag: The psychology of horse-race betting

https://drmarkgriffiths.wordpress.com/2014/03/11/nag-nag-nag-the-psychology-of-horse-race-betting/

Books by Nassim Nicholas Taleb The Black Swan ; Fooled by Randomness ; The Bed of Procrustes

Wish I had read a lot of these articles and books (and more listed in the search results), for a better understanding of what I am and what I'm am not doing when I am handicapping.

That CIA thing was pretty interesting, as i've seen people say that you can truly grasp the winners within a minute of looking at a form, the rest is just extra.

eqitec
07-06-2015, 08:57 PM
How does this approach to handicapping training grab anyone?

https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/Class_Status-Anal_MTH070315_7

Various handicapping factors would be reviewed using actual races to be run in the near future. All who participate would have access to the opinions of all others who participate.

thaskalos
07-06-2015, 10:42 PM
How does this approach to handicapping training grab anyone?

https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/Class_Status-Anal_MTH070315_7

Various handicapping factors would be reviewed using actual races to be run in the near future. All who participate would have access to the opinions of all others who participate.

I like it! :ThmbUp:

Some_One
07-06-2015, 11:29 PM
How does this approach to handicapping training grab anyone?

https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/Class_Status-Anal_MTH070315_7

Various handicapping factors would be reviewed using actual races to be run in the near future. All who participate would have access to the opinions of all others who participate.

If you take this approach for various handicapping factors, you'll probably end up on the favorite more times than not so why bother in the first place? You need to show whatever analysis you do is more than just an exercise of mental masturbation and will get you a better result then just playing the fav.

no breathalyzer
07-07-2015, 09:07 AM
If you take this approach for various handicapping factors, you'll probably end up on the favorite more times than not so why bother in the first place? You need to show whatever analysis you do is more than just an exercise of mental masturbation and will get you a better result then just playing the fav.


i think the point is at least you will understand the reasoning on why the horse is the favorite and identify possible bad ones in the process?

eqitec
07-07-2015, 11:17 AM
Here is a Winners' Class Status Summary of the 2013-2014 Saratoga meetings (681 races). There were prices to be had in the Class Risers and some of the Class Droppers. Of course, this is based on my opinion of the class status of each horse before their races. Others may have differed.

The objective is not to select a horse, but to educate about handicapping factors one at a time, of which there are many.

eqitec
07-09-2015, 09:55 AM
See the links below for anyone who wishes to try this out, using the 9th race at MTH tomorrow:

Handicapping Continuing Education - Class Status Analysis Collaboration (https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/Class_Anal_Mth_071015_Race_9)

Normally, the Summary link below will be available only to those who participate. Any optional comments entered by participants can be viewed by clicking on Comments under the info graphic for each horse.

Handicapping Continuing Education - Summary Info Graphics (https://www.surveymonkey.com/results/SM-GMSLRY8Y/)

green80
07-14-2015, 07:29 PM
Just goes to show that everyone is different, as I find exactly the opposite.

I find that the higher the rebate (which generally correlates with smaller track size), the stiffer the competition.

My results have also shown that I do better at the tracks with the lower rebates.

no breathalyzer
07-14-2015, 08:31 PM
This is good advice for 95% of horseplayers including me

http://www.gamblingfactsandfictions.com/id29.htm

all this takeout crap i hear and all this you can't win because of it just sounds like bitter fools and can't cap a 2 horse race.... its like saying you can't win in poker cause of the rake. I mean if everyone won there would be no losers and if everyone lost there would be no more players.... there are plenty of professional capers out there they just don't advertise it. why would they?

It's as silly as claiming online poker is rigged and unbeatable

thaskalos
07-14-2015, 08:40 PM
.... there are plenty of professional capers out there they just don't advertise it.


I'm sure there are a few...but, since they don't advertise, it's hard to know how many there are...or what kind of "living" they are making out of this game.

ReplayRandall
07-14-2015, 09:17 PM
I'm sure there are a few...but, since they don't advertise, it's hard to know how many there are...or what kind of "living" they are making out of this game.

So no one says how much they beat the game for? Guess again:

Originally Posted by Magister Ludi

It is possible - if you can subsist on an eight-figure USD annual income.


:lol: :lol: :lol:

eqitec
07-16-2015, 10:24 AM
Another Handicapping Community Education exercise using the 9th race at MTH on Friday, 7/17 is now available via the links below for those who may be interested.

The 1st link is to participate. Upon doing so, participants will immediately see an info graphic summary of the opinions of all others who participated up to that point.

The 2nd link is to check the summary at any later point in time, logically as close to post time as possible.

https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/Class_Status-Anal_MTH071715_9

https://www.surveymonkey.com/results/SM-VWGMS5ZD/

cutchemist42
07-24-2015, 01:18 PM
Another Handicapping Community Education exercise using the 9th race at MTH on Friday, 7/17 is now available via the links below for those who may be interested.

The 1st link is to participate. Upon doing so, participants will immediately see an info graphic summary of the opinions of all others who participated up to that point.

The 2nd link is to check the summary at any later point in time, logically as close to post time as possible.

https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/Class_Status-Anal_MTH071715_9

https://www.surveymonkey.com/results/SM-VWGMS5ZD/

There used to be a community horse picking site called thorobid that was pretty cool. Their twitter is still active but the site isnt anymore.

https://twitter.com/ThoroBid

ultracapper
07-25-2015, 11:37 PM
So no one says how much they beat the game for? Guess again:



:lol: :lol: :lol:

8 figures. Not enough. Can't subsist on that.

Nor imagine anyone pulling that down playing the horses.

Geez, I come on here all the time saying it can be done, but even I won't go there.

Robert Fischer
07-26-2015, 07:40 AM
I can't feed my family on 8 figures.

Aerocraft67
07-26-2015, 10:42 AM
The game is certainly engaging and complex enough to warrant advanced instruction, but I think you'd have a hard time carving out a profitable niche between decent handicapping books, good free information, and personal experience.

A big challenge for me is time. I don't have the time to play as much as I'd like, not to mention achieve true "winning horseplayer" status, and now I have to fit paid-for videos into my time and playing budget? For the guys that have the time to put in, I think they're a less likely segment of potential customers.

I'm not a big fan of watching videos where a well-organized written source will do. There's a place for videos when you have the time to invest in a comprehensive overview of something quite visual, but you can't skim and reference videos like text. It sounds like these videos would transcend that minor bias, but it is a bit of a headwind along with the time factor.

Clearly the huge exception to an anti-video bias is watching races. If video is your thing, you might design a product, even a one-off, about how to watch and analyze races for handicapping. I've had my finger over the link to buy Dan Illman's trip handicapping DVD more than once myself. Maybe it's time I just bought it. It's even on sale. The conundrum for me is that I know watching replays is valuable, but it takes time. Time!

You've already mentioned that you can't teach people to win, and others have mentioned that divulging winning strategies ultimately kills them. Securing the the tools to win may be all that's reasonable to expect from a training site. The complex game evolves and there's always new ways to look at things and new things to try, but I suspect handicapping training doesn't have the legs to support the sustainable, profitable venture you propose.

I do think it's intriguing, I just don't think it stands up to the rigor of a serious business.

ultracapper
07-27-2015, 11:39 PM
I can't feed my family on 8 figures.

Says Latrell Sprewell