Conditional Wagering?

[coljesep]

To those that use conditional wagering, are there any sites other than TwinSpires that use it?

Over the past month I've had four wagers "fail" due to not meeting the minimum odds and the horse went off at least 2 points ahead of my condition.

When I reached out to TwinSpires they said

"One thing that will improve your experience is to never set a wager to post at 0 minutes to post. The pools are closed by a person and while most of the time they are right on time human error can occur and the pools can close a few minutes before the race starts. In stead of using the 0 MTP, We recommend the lowest you go is 3 minutes to post to protect you"

The most recent was yesterday the #15 at Belmont race 8, I had a minimum play of 10-1. It went off slightly ahead of 11-1, but the bet failed... meaning their tote read it as at least 9-1 at 0MTP.

Seems like a pretty drastic increase in odds - am I supposed to accept "human error" when I have $ on the line?

[PaceAdvantage]

To those that use conditional wagering, are there any sites other than TwinSpires that use it?

Over the past month I've had four wagers "fail" due to not meeting the minimum odds and the horse went off at least 2 points ahead of my condition.

When I reached out to TwinSpires they said

"One thing that will improve your experience is to never set a wager to post at 0 minutes to post. The pools are closed by a person and while most of the time they are right on time human error can occur and the pools can close a few minutes before the race starts. In stead of using the 0 MTP, We recommend the lowest you go is 3 minutes to post to protect you"

The most recent was yesterday the #15 at Belmont race 8, I had a minimum play of 10-1. It went off slightly ahead of 11-1, but the bet failed... meaning their tote read it as at least 9-1 at 0MTP.

Seems like a pretty drastic increase in odds - am I supposed to accept "human error" when I have $ on the line?All these sites have a very fatal flaw in their conditional wagering set up...one that you experienced and wrote about...

I've even discussed a very simple solution (with some of the very top folks in the industry) that would have enabled your bets to go through , but alas and alack, nobody seems all that keen on employing what should be a simple solution to your problem. And to top it all off, my solution has the inevitable effect of generating MORE handle for the ADWs that allow conditional wagering (and almost all do at this point, I would think...at least all the major ones).

One day maybe they'll start listening...

[coljesep]

What was/is your solution?

The reply I got specific to my Belmont issue was

"I understand your frustration. That point has been brought up prior about the odds fluctuations between the time the clock hits 0 MTP and the time the races go off. This is especially evident at some of the smaller tracks with smaller pools in which odds can vary even more.

At this time, however, our system is just programmed to close at 0 since there is no good way to set that to close at a specific time due to any delays which might occur for loading issues, etc. "

I'm not the greatest at math but at one of the largest tracks (Belmont), I find it really hard to swallow that a horses odds could jump from 9-1 all the way past 11-1 from 0MTP to race start

[coljesep]

Another frustrating thing about conditionals is - once they fail the site has no record that you made the bet, or tried to make the bet.

[PaceAdvantage]

I'm not the greatest at math but at one of the largest tracks (Belmont), I find it really hard to swallow that a horses odds could jump from 9-1 all the way past 11-1 from 0MTP to race startThis could quite EASILY happen...there could be as much as 3-5 minutes from the time you see 0MTP on the tote to the time the gate opens. Some tracks it's regularly more, some it's less.

Belmont is usually pretty timely...you usually don't get more than a minute or two between 0MTP and the start of the race. Other tracks aren't as punctual.

Since a great deal of money pours into a race between 0MTP and the actual start of the race, you should REGULARLY see horses move that much in odds...9-1 to 11-1 isn't all that big a jump.

[FocusWiz]

Another frustrating thing about conditionals is - once they fail the site has no record that you made the bet, or tried to make the bet.I think this really depends on the ADW (or maybe I misunderstand your post).

On AmWager and XpressBet, I see the conditionals whether they have been wagered or not. I missed my only winning conditional on Sunday on XpressBet for reasons I never quite figured out (probably the timing issue noted here, but I like to think they knew it would be my only winner and would make me even for the day).

I have not tried this a lot on Twinspires, but don't they show up somewhere under Draft Wagers (perhaps wagers that failed)?

[Poindexter]

To those that use conditional wagering, are there any sites other than TwinSpires that use it?

Over the past month I've had four wagers "fail" due to not meeting the minimum odds and the horse went off at least 2 points ahead of my condition.

When I reached out to TwinSpires they said

"One thing that will improve your experience is to never set a wager to post at 0 minutes to post. The pools are closed by a person and while most of the time they are right on time human error can occur and the pools can close a few minutes before the race starts. In stead of using the 0 MTP, We recommend the lowest you go is 3 minutes to post to protect you"

The most recent was yesterday the #15 at Belmont race 8, I had a minimum play of 10-1. It went off slightly ahead of 11-1, but the bet failed... meaning their tote read it as at least 9-1 at 0MTP.

Seems like a pretty drastic increase in odds - am I supposed to accept "human error" when I have $ on the line?

That is pretty interesting. I never use conditional wagering, but there one night I wasn't going to be around a computer and put in a conditional wager at Balmoral Harness for 3-1 or higher at 0 minutes to post (Twinspires). The horse won at 5-1 but I did not have a bet. I just assumed that somebody was pounded late in the wagering that drove my horses odds up and I caught a bad break. Now after reading your post.........Safe to say that will be my last time using conditional wagering.

[DJofSD]

To those that use conditional wagering, are there any sites other than TwinSpires that use it?

Over the past month I've had four wagers "fail" due to not meeting the minimum odds and the horse went off at least 2 points ahead of my condition.

When I reached out to TwinSpires they said

"One thing that will improve your experience is to never set a wager to post at 0 minutes to post. The pools are closed by a person and while most of the time they are right on time human error can occur and the pools can close a few minutes before the race starts. In stead of using the 0 MTP, We recommend the lowest you go is 3 minutes to post to protect you"

The most recent was yesterday the #15 at Belmont race 8, I had a minimum play of 10-1. It went off slightly ahead of 11-1, but the bet failed... meaning their tote read it as at least 9-1 at 0MTP.

Seems like a pretty drastic increase in odds - am I supposed to accept "human error" when I have $ on the line?
I had a very similar experience with Twin Spires right after they made conditional wagering available. 10-1 was my minimum odds and the horse won at more than 10-1 but I had no bet according to TS. What I now can not remember was at what point during the betting period did the conditional wager apply -- I'm pretty sure it was well before 0 MTP.

When I asked for an explanation, all the women could tell me was that the conditions were not met, meaning, the horse was not 10-1. But, I rejoined, look at the results chart, the horse went off at well over 10-1, how can you say that? No further explanation and a follow up request via email was not responded to. The request was to produce some kind, any kind of records showing the odds of the horse during the betting period. As a guess, I concluded at some point during the betting period the odds on my selection dipped below my minimum and then my bet was cancelled. Without the necessary data, it is impossible to say when that dip happened.

That was my last attempt to use that feature.

Until there is a way to audit the application by producing records of the details of the pools including exact time of day and some kind of record of your bet being cancelled at a specific time and for a specific reason you are just gambling by taking an unnecessary additional risk.

[PaceAdvantage]

I had a very similar experience with Twin Spires right after they made conditional wagering available. 10-1 was my minimum odds and the horse won at more than 10-1 but I had no bet according to TS. What I now can not remember was at what point during the betting period did the conditional wager apply -- I'm pretty sure it was well before 0 MTP.

When I asked for an explanation, all the women could tell me was that the conditions were not met, meaning, the horse was not 10-1. But, I rejoined, look at the results chart, the horse went off at well over 10-1, how can you say that? No further explanation and a follow up request via email was not responded to. The request was to produce some kind, any kind of records showing the odds of the horse during the betting period. As a guess, I concluded at some point during the betting period the odds on my selection dipped below my minimum and then my bet was cancelled. Without the necessary data, it is impossible to say when that dip happened.

That was my last attempt to use that feature.

Until there is a way to audit the application by producing records of the details of the pools including exact time of day and some kind of record of your bet being cancelled at a specific time and for a specific reason you are just gambling by taking an unnecessary additional risk.It's a pretty simple explanation. The horse was not 10-1 at the time you told the ADW to check the bet.

When you set the MTP, whether it be 5MTP, 10MTP or 0MTP, the ADW only checks the bet ONCE, at whatever MTP you tell it to. If the horse doesn't meet the minimum odds AT THAT TIME, whether or not it meets the odds 5 minutes later, it doesn't matter...your bet is cancelled.

The simple fix is to offer continuous monitoring from your designated MTP onward through until the gates open. I have no clue why ADWs don't do this, as it only means more money in their pocket since their handle on conditional wagers would inevitably go up.

It's a no brainer. Yet I know of no ADW that handles conditional wagers this way.

[DJofSD]

It's a pretty simple explanation. The horse was not 10-1 at the time you told the ADW to check the bet.

When you set the MTP, whether it be 5MTP, 10MTP or 0MTP, the ADW only checks the bet ONCE, at whatever MTP you tell it to. If the horse doesn't meet the minimum odds AT THAT TIME, whether or not it meets the odds 5 minutes later, it doesn't matter...your bet is cancelled.

The simple fix is to offer continuous monitoring from your designated MTP onward through until the gates open. I have no clue why ADWs don't do this, as it only means more money in their pocket since their handle on conditional wagers would inevitably go up.

It's a no brainer. Yet I know of no ADW that handles conditional wagers this way.
Mike, that the service only checks the odds at a specific time and then sees if your wager's conditions are met is very likely how they've implemented their application. But it still remains I have to take their word for it -- and it cuts both ways, why a bet was or was not cancelled. I like 'trust but verify' but with TS you don't have a way to do the latter so I don't do the former.

In my case, I was only concerned about the odds being less than 10-1 at (I believe) 10 MTP. If the horse got bet down after that, I was OK with it but if the horse opened the betting period well below 10-1 then I did not want to make the bet. I guess what I am trying to do is to use conditional wagering to make a bet in advance, but, if the odds of that horse differ significantly then cancel the bet b/c either I missed something or the public knows something I don't. In any event, I am wrong about something and I don't want to make the bet.

[PaceAdvantage]

It's pretty cut and dried, and there is no such thing as "differ significantly" when it comes to these algorithms.

You only have two options to set when it comes to conditional wagers at every ADW I've ever tried it at.

MTP and Minimum Odds.

And their servers only check your wager ONCE...at whatever time they notice your MTP have been met.

If at that time the horse meets or exceeds your minimum odds, the bet is placed. If at that specific point in time, the horse is BELOW your minimum odds, the bet is not placed and it is then cancelled. That's it.

[BetPTC]

Premier Turf Club invented Conditional Wagering back in 2007 and everything since has been a copy. We believe our system is still the best one out there.

For example, unlike some other sites, you can place a conditional wager on a W/P, W/P/S, P/S, Place or Show bet (against the Win odds of course).

[Dave Schwartz]

I'm not the greatest at math but at one of the largest tracks (Belmont), I find it really hard to swallow that a horses odds could jump from 9-1 all the way past 11-1 from 0MTP to race start

Actually, 9/1 to 11/1 could be 9.8:1 jumping to 11.0:1.

That is like 1 point, which is, at 9/1, literally nothing. Happens all the time.

I actually had a horse enter the gate at 3/1 and pay $17.

Actually, a funny story. Playing from home, and I really had to go to the bathroom. But my horses were running so I held on. My guy went gate-to-wire unmolested and, when I saw he was clear with a few yards to go, I jumped up to "go."

On the way to the bathroom I whooped to Beth downstairs that we'd just cashed solidly on an $8 horse. (I was chasing the money and had $67 on the horse to win my mini-session.)

Imagine my shock when I got back and saw $17.00 on the screen as the payoff. I hollered, "Oh crap. We must have been DQ'd!" and tried to figure out how that happened. I figured it must have happened out of the gate and I just didn't see it.

When I didn't see a replay, I thought, "How strange," and went on to the next race. Then I hit the "Get Results" button and saw my return pop up: $569! LOL - I was ecstatic.



When I came back, I saw the prices on the TV, and I said in

[MJC922]

Some type of win pool carryover would be nice, e.g. I bet the horse at 7-2 I was willing to take 7-2, so that's the most I'm getting. Turns out the horse pays 5-1 so 'my' extra 3 dollars in profit gets carried over to the next race. Next race I bet at 3-1, horse goes off at 2-1 and wins, now I get 2-1 plus a portion of the win pool carryover to mitigate against the odds drop. I don't know how feasible it is but what we have now where you bet at 2-1 loading into the gate and collect $3.40, that's a big problem IMO.

[lamboguy]

this game has changed throughout the years. knowing how to make your bets these days is more important than finding the best horse or horses in the race.

i find that the best system today is to bomb into a pool right at the start and make the odds 1/9 let the value players come in at the very end, more often than not the odds on your horse goes up and you get value, but not big prices.

[MJC922]

It's clever to bomb it early but really manipulating the pool isn't a great option because what do you do if the horse goes nuts in the paddock. You're all in and you can't cancel, right? Twinspires only allows so many cancellations, I'm not sure about others.

[pondman]

I'm not sure how they queue the bets in the last 1 minute, but I guarantee it's not in the best interest of the small handicapper. I can almost guarantee on
Xpressbet that you are about 2 minutes behind. Your conditional bet goes in about the 3 minute mark. And then they mess around in places such as Indian for another 12 minutes.

[Hoofless_Wonder]

Actually, 9/1 to 11/1 could be 9.8:1 jumping to 11.0:1.

That is like 1 point, which is, at 9/1, literally nothing. Happens all the time.

I actually had a horse enter the gate at 3/1 and pay $17.

Actually, a funny story. Playing from home, and I really had to go to the bathroom. But my horses were running so I held on. My guy went gate-to-wire unmolested and, when I saw he was clear with a few yards to go, I jumped up to "go."

On the way to the bathroom I whooped to Beth downstairs that we'd just cashed solidly on an $8 horse. (I was chasing the money and had $67 on the horse to win my mini-session.)

Imagine my shock when I got back and saw $17.00 on the screen as the payoff. I hollered, "Oh crap. We must have been DQ'd!" and tried to figure out how that happened. I figured it must have happened out of the gate and I just didn't see it.

When I didn't see a replay, I thought, "How strange," and went on to the next race. Then I hit the "Get Results" button and saw my return pop up: $569! LOL - I was ecstatic.



When I came back, I saw the prices on the TV, and I said in

:D

Dave, take some of those $500 in profits and buy some Depends....

I find that using conditional wagers are very tricky and limited where they can work. In theory they sound great, but in practice not so much....

[BetPTC]

Our conditional wagering goes to 30 second intervals beginning at the 2 MTP mark. You can go beyond 0 MTP, e.g. -1:30, but you have to really know your track in order to do that.

[mikesal57]

I had a very similar experience with Twin Spires right after they made conditional wagering available. 10-1 was my minimum odds and the horse won at more than 10-1 but I had no bet according to TS. What I now can not remember was at what point during the betting period did the conditional wager apply -- I'm pretty sure it was well before 0 MTP.

When I asked for an explanation, all the women could tell me was that the conditions were not met, meaning, the horse was not 10-1. But, I rejoined, look at the results chart, the horse went off at well over 10-1, how can you say that? No further explanation and a follow up request via email was not responded to. The request was to produce some kind, any kind of records showing the odds of the horse during the betting period. As a guess, I concluded at some point during the betting period the odds on my selection dipped below my minimum and then my bet was cancelled. Without the necessary data, it is impossible to say when that dip happened.

That was my last attempt to use that feature.

Until there is a way to audit the application by producing records of the details of the pools including exact time of day and some kind of record of your bet being cancelled at a specific time and for a specific reason you are just gambling by taking an unnecessary additional risk.

I stopped using conditional bets after this post
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=104249

Thanks to "Some One" giving me the odds at different intervals I was able to collect my winnings from Twinspires.
Unless you can get proof then its a lost cause.

Mike

[DJofSD]

I stopped using conditional bets after this post
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=104249

Thanks to "Some One" giving me the odds at different intervals I was able to collect my winnings from Twinspires.
Unless you can get proof then its a lost cause.

Mike
Mike, thanks for the additional information.

"I guess something is wrong." Makes you wonder if they've tested the code. Probably not.

[PaceAdvantage]

I stopped using conditional bets after this post
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=104249

Thanks to "Some One" giving me the odds at different intervals I was able to collect my winnings from Twinspires.
Unless you can get proof then its a lost cause.

MikeAccording to the thread, it ultimately wasn't the fault of TwinSpires or the conditional wagering system.

It was the unusual occurrence of the host track closing the pools earlier than one would expect and your MTP condition set to 0mtp. The combination of both leading to a rare missed conditional bet...plus TwinSpires paid you off anyway after investigating...

[mikesal57]

According to the thread, it ultimately wasn't the fault of TwinSpires or the conditional wagering system.

It was the unusual occurrence of the host track closing the pools earlier than one would expect and your MTP condition set to 0mtp. The combination of both leading to a rare missed conditional bet...plus TwinSpires paid you off anyway after investigating...


Yes PA..they did pay me off but without a fight from me ..

I emailed them 3-4 times and also threatening them I'd post on Pace Advantage ( lol ) before they reacted. I did have the proof and got the usual "didn't meet required parameters" response. How many times guys don't get results like I finally got and leave total frustrated and wondering ....

Mike

[green80]

I bet with amwager and on a conditional bet, you can go back after the race and see why you bet did not go in. If you set your odds at 6/1 at 0 min to post, for example, after the race you click on your wager and it will say something like " wager failed 5.8 odds at 0 min to post."

[DJofSD]

I bet with amwager and on a conditional bet, you can go back after the race and see why you bet did not go in. If you set your odds at 6/1 at 0 min to post, for example, after the race you click on your wager and it will say something like " wager failed 5.8 odds at 0 min to post."
Good. At least there's one company that made an effort to provide some feedback.

But -- and this is not meant to be confrontational -- can you also get the history of all the pools and be able to reproduce the betting activity and see where the odds shifted which resulting in the conditional wager being cancelled?
Basically, an audit trail.

[FocusWiz]

AmWager provides a graphic representation of the win pool while the wagering is ongoing (which can show major swings, but is not really useful for minor changes), but once the race is run, even that graphic is lost. I have asked them in the past but they had no plans on making that available after the race is run.

[DJofSD]

OK, thanks for the info.

[green80]

Good. At least there's one company that made an effort to provide some feedback.

But -- and this is not meant to be confrontational -- can you also get the history of all the pools and be able to reproduce the betting activity and see where the odds shifted which resulting in the conditional wager being cancelled?
Basically, an audit trail.

No, you cannot get pool history. There must be some places you can get it because it has been provided to me by some of the members here. That being said, I would also assume that during the minute your bet goes in that the odds will fluctuate. The odds would have to be over your minimum at the precise moment that your bet is transmitted.

[mikesal57]

In my situation, I place ALL my bets before the days races even begin. I have a 3-1 limit.
My picks would be considered "value plays". My horses have a 6-1 and over for the morning line. I want no interest when they get bet down because its , proven to me, a losing proposition. Numerous times I wondered how my bet went in when the odds are 8/5...or on the other hand ..how come I didn't collect when my horse paid $11. We are in a situation that we can not control. All I ask is some sort of "proof" , and I'd be satisfied.

Mike

[DJofSD]

It's not so much a matter of control as it is a matter of verification. Can you trust the service provider? Are they accurately assessing what you wish to have done based upon the circumstances? I don't believe they are but proving otherwise let alone improving on the service is moot if there is no audit trail.

[tlinetrader]

Does anyone know of an ADW that accepts conditonal wagers on place bets (conditional to the win odds of course). I live in NY.

[FocusWiz]

Does anyone know of an ADW that accepts conditonal wagers on place bets (conditional to the win odds of course). I live in NY.I believe that AmWager has been mentioned before as accepting these. I also believe that BetPTC will take wagers on Win, Place, and Show wagers based on the Win odds.

[tlinetrader]

My understanding is that BetPTC doesnt accept NY residents. I called Amwager and spoke to three different people who couldnt answer the question and suggested I cal back tomorrow. Any others possibly?

[FocusWiz]

1) AmWager definitely does accept Place and Show wagers conditioned on the Win odds.

2) I am a New York resident and use BetPTC.

[Ted Craven]

Here is a screenshot of a Place bet conditioned on the final price of Win pool odds of a different horse ($100 Place on #3, based on odds of #1 being greater than 7/5 at 0 MTP). I just grabbed a race in the UK that happened to be current at the moment.

NY residents not the greatest rebates, and some restricted track coverage with Amwager. But they have great betting tools!

http://sartinmethodology.com/images/pa/Amwager.conditional.place.bet.png

[FocusWiz]

I agree with Ted and might also mention that they offer the option to base an exacta, double or quinella plays on the probable payoffs.

[tlinetrader]

Thanks guys. I'll try amwager. Called betPTC and they said no to NY residents.

[green80]

my suggestion would be to set your bets to -30 sec or -1min (after post) by that time most of the off track money should be in. Some of your biggest odds changes are when the money from all the off track OTB's hits the pools.
To do this you have to know your track and how close to on time they run. You want to set your bet to go in as late as possible without being shut out. Tracks with the smaller pools will vary wildly.

[FocusWiz]

Another thing to consider with Amwager is that you can also set an upper odds limit. They allow multiple conditions to be set on each wager.

For example, if you like a horse and want to play it if it over a target of 5/1, but you never play 40/1 shots, you can set the condition such that the wager will be placed if over your target, but not be placed if the odds go as high as 40/1.

I have not done this, but conceivably, you might also set up multiple wagers with different rules such that you wager more where you consider the "sweet spot" to be, but still wager something if it goes out of that range.

I have had most success with this when uploading files (a whole different learning curve), but you can also do this from a data entry screen. I think you will need to play around with that a bit before you feel comfortable with it.

[TravisVOX]

my suggestion would be to set your bets to -30 sec or -1min (after post) by that time most of the off track money should be in. Some of your biggest odds changes are when the money from all the off track OTB's hits the pools.
To do this you have to know your track and how close to on time they run. You want to set your bet to go in as late as possible without being shut out. Tracks with the smaller pools will vary wildly.

Depending on your level of intensity, you can track how long after "0 MTP" a track tends to go off and customize your conditions to suit that track. Finger Lakes, for example, is usually fairly close to post time. Gulfstream, meanwhile, is not.

[FocusWiz]

I have been playing with Exacta wagers at AmWager using both a minimum and maximum probable as part of the set of conditions and am wondering if this feature is offered elsewhere. From my perusal, XpressBet, TwinSpires, and BetPTC all seem to offer only a minimum probable for wagering (either odds for Win Wagering or a probable payoff for Doubles and Exactas).

Does anyone know of any other ADW that offers the ability to use both a minimum and a maximum when setting up conditional wagers (preferably via an uploaded file)?

[tlinetrader]

Still looking for a US ADW that accepts conditional wagers on place bets. Ive used Amwager but it sounds like they're running into financial problems. Id like to use BetPTC but I live in NY and they say they dont accept NY residents. Any suggestions?

[mikesal57]

Still looking for a US ADW that accepts conditional wagers on place bets. Ive used Amwager but it sounds like they're running into financial problems. Id like to use BetPTC but I live in NY and they say they dont accept NY residents. Any suggestions?


"Financial problems" ???

Where did you hear that...so that we can all get our money out

mike

[tlinetrader]

FocusWiz, if you dont mind my asking how were you able to setup a betPTC account?

[tlinetrader]

http://www.paulickreport.com/news/ray-s-paddock/creditors-try-to-force-adw-company-founder-into-bankruptcy/

Story regarding amwest who i believe owns amwager

[Track Collector]

"Financial problems" ???

Where did you hear that...so that we can all get our money out

mike

I don't think there is much to worry about, unless you are Mr. Clemmens.

[mikesal57]

O thank you...my 10 bucks is safe...

mike

[lamboguy]

this case is being completely resolved with only good news for amwager and clemmens. details will follow. a lot of people spread false information to make amwager looks bad and they know who they are. there were never any issues with players money.

[FocusWiz]

FocusWiz, if you dont mind my asking how were you able to setup a betPTC account?
It was a while ago, before NY started with their surcharges, so perhaps they just allowed me to stay on. I did not do anything special.

[highnote]

this case is being completely resolved with only good news for amwager and clemmens. details will follow. a lot of people spread false information to make amwager looks bad and they know who they are. there were never any issues with players money.

This is good to know as I have known Nelson Clemmens for nearly 20 years and have only good things to say about him.