Al Illich would have loved this one

[bigeastbeast]

The long gone Bronx horse owner and racing system seller must have been smiling looking down at Monmouth this afternoon,as players who bent slightly one of his rules collected on a 75-1 shot in the 6th.

Illich published a method devised by the great Robert Rowe that attempted to find hidden longshots in second halves of daily doubles by dividing the ML into the DD payoff to get a ratio.

Lewis Henry had a 20-1 ML line and a DD payoff of $283 for a ratio of 14,the lowest in the field.The other 20-1 shot had a payoff of $1344,5 times a high.That should have raised an eyebrow or two.

It didn't.Lewis Henry blew them out in the stretch looking much the best.I don't have a form,so I'm wondering about his recent record.Does anybody know?

Oh,the slighly bent rule was that he wanted the ratio to be at least 4 points lower than the second horse after eliminating the first two ML lowest odds.The next lowest today was 15 on a 5-1 shot,but what horse would you bet?

[Tom]

Karl had him! ;)

[castaway01]

Karl had him! ;)

There's a blast from the past!

[JimG]

Karl had him! ;)

And went home for the day.

[Shemp Howard]

The long gone Bronx horse owner and racing system seller must have been smiling looking down at Monmouth this afternoon,as players who bent slightly one of his rules collected on a 75-1 shot in the 6th.

Illich published a method devised by the great Robert Rowe that attempted to find hidden longshots in second halves of daily doubles by dividing the ML into the DD payoff to get a ratio.

Lewis Henry had a 20-1 ML line and a DD payoff of $283 for a ratio of 14,the lowest in the field.The other 20-1 shot had a payoff of $1344,5 times a high.That should have raised an eyebrow or two.

It didn't.Lewis Henry blew them out in the stretch looking much the best.I don't have a form,so I'm wondering about his recent record.Does anybody know?




Oh,the slighly bent rule was that he wanted the ratio to be at least 4 points lower than the second horse after eliminating the first two ML lowest odds.The next lowest today was 15 on a 5-1 shot,but what horse would you bet?

He was 70-1 in his last start. Had a rough break, rushed up and showed speed for a half. 7 lifetime races in 3 years but had shown signs of life in his AM trials.

[Robert Fischer]

very cool

[DeltaLover]

The long gone Bronx horse owner and racing system seller must have been smiling looking down at Monmouth this afternoon,as players who bent slightly one of his rules collected on a 75-1 shot in the 6th.

Illich published a method devised by the great Robert Rowe that attempted to find hidden longshots in second halves of daily doubles by dividing the ML into the DD payoff to get a ratio.

Lewis Henry had a 20-1 ML line and a DD payoff of $283 for a ratio of 14,the lowest in the field.The other 20-1 shot had a payoff of $1344,5 times a high.That should have raised an eyebrow or two.

It didn't.Lewis Henry blew them out in the stretch looking much the best.I don't have a form,so I'm wondering about his recent record.Does anybody know?

Oh,the slighly bent rule was that he wanted the ratio to be at least 4 points lower than the second horse after eliminating the first two ML lowest odds.The next lowest today was 15 on a 5-1 shot,but what horse would you bet?

Sorry, but if you are going to think like this, relying on tote rules and even more than this trying to "bent" them after the race is done , to assure a "mind" winning, you probably should try games like lottery or slot machines..

Since you do not have PPs, this is a screen copy of them from my program:

http://i58.tinypic.com/fan6sh.png


If I would had to say anything about the winning of this horse, it was another disgrace for horse betting.

Twenty days after his last and miserable race that was following a one year layoff and without a single listed workout, his ZERO per cent trainer and ZERO percent jockey, found the way to create a major and unexplainable uspet!

[biggestal99]

If I would had to say anything about the winning of this horse, it was another disgrace for horse betting.

Twenty days after his last and miserable race that was following a one year layoff and without a single listed workout, his ZERO per cent trainer and ZERO percent jockey, found the way to create a major and unexplainable uspet!

One mans disgrace, is another man way of betting, when i look at these nw2 life race,
Eliminate any horse with 10 or more starts.

I dont bet horses that are stinkin losers. Its against my soul as abetter

That leaves 4 horses who are noto proven losers.

Guess which horses completed the 58k super. :-)

Allan

[johnhenry81]

This was definite set up stiff. I followed these type of form reversals over the years. This is the stuff that turns people away by droves.

[biggestal99]

This was definite set up stiff. I followed these type of form reversals over the years. This is the stuff that turns people away by droves.

so he wasn't going to improve one off a year layoff and a troubled trip.

I am not saying he should have been favoured but certainly a case can be made for improvement in his racing performance

also the trainer had not won this year, but he did win with this horse before at 13-1.

Allan

[DeltaLover]

so he wasn't going to improve one off a year layoff and a troubled trip.

I am not saying he should have been favoured but certainly a case can be made for improvement in his racing performance

also the trainer had not won this year, but he did win with this horse before at 13-1.

Allan


Yeah sure... The horse had already improved to the best of his last two years! An as far as the trainer, hmm yes, now that you say it, I can see that indeed he had won a race fifteen months from today :bang: :bang: :bang: :bang:

[thaskalos]

so he wasn't going to improve one off a year layoff and a troubled trip.

I am not saying he should have been favoured but certainly a case can be made for improvement in his racing performance

also the trainer had not won this year, but he did win with this horse before at 13-1.

Allan

As the inimitable Tom Ainslie so astutely observed: "After every race, another system is born."

[Tom]

As the inimitable Tom Ainslie so astutely observed: "After every race, another system is born."
That "system" has been around a long time. The idea of proven losers is very applicable in these kinds of races.

Often you are left with 3-4-5 horse as contenders who are all long odds.

[thaskalos]

That "system" has been around a long time. The idea of proven losers is very applicable in these kinds of races.

Often you are left with 3-4-5 horse as contenders who are all long odds.

I wasn't commenting on his post about the "proven losers". I was commenting on his NEXT post...where he said that a horse should improve off of a year layoff...and that a trainer's lone 13-1 winner in the year prior is an indication that another longshot winner would be forthcoming.

It all looks so simple after the race is run.

[Tom]

Gottcha.

I used the PL idea to throw out the low odds 6 in the 4th at Belmont. Had CJ's best early pace by a lot, had the best 4 tuf figs in the filed.....and got beat by an even bigger proven loser! :bang:

[GaryG]

Illich called it the Secret Play. I used it whenever I was at the track when I was supposed to be in school.

[Kash$]

TimeformUS +25 ...roi is on steroids..CJ chime in

[biggestal99]

I wasn't commenting on his post about the "proven losers". I was commenting on his NEXT post...where he said that a horse should improve off of a year layoff...and that a trainer's lone 13-1 winner in the year prior is an indication that another longshot winner would be forthcoming.

It all looks so simple after the race is run.

I wrote that because delta pointed out that the trainer was a zero percent trainer this year.
He was not a zero percent trainer with that horse.

Allan