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View Full Version : American Pharoah's next start...


nads1420
06-19-2015, 10:43 AM
http://www.courier-journal.com/story/sports/horses/2015/06/19/saratoga-in-the-lead-for-triple-crown-winner-american-pharoahs-next-race/28976455/

Now Saratoga in the lead after last Saturday the family said Monmouth.... hmm

Think they just trying to get more money out of Monmouth?

PaceAdvantage
06-19-2015, 10:48 AM
Travers will always look better on the resume...not that he needs padding at this point.

nads1420
06-19-2015, 10:58 AM
Travers will always look better on the resume...not that he needs padding at this point.

That subjective... maybe in 1970 but better horses have won the Haskell this Millenium. Plus once you add Triple Crown to the resume then the resume is made.


I think its just a ploy to get more money out of Monmouth. Which is a smart business move by smart business people. 6 days ago we heard Zayatt say "MONMOUTH!!!!!"

Tom
06-19-2015, 11:02 AM
Yesterday he tweeted Saratoga!

DeltaLover
06-19-2015, 11:10 AM
Haskell is a top race of course but Travers is a notch higher

nads1420
06-19-2015, 11:16 AM
Haskell is a top race of course but Travers is a notch higher

Traditionally yes, recently no

Redboard
06-19-2015, 11:16 AM
I was at Monmouth last Friday and asked about Haskell tickets. Was told they were sold out. I'll bet there will be some available on stubhub soon.

I guess Monmouth just doesn't have the money to entice him to run there. No slots supplements.

nads1420
06-19-2015, 11:27 AM
wonder when we get a definitive answer on his next start

DeltaLover
06-19-2015, 11:47 AM
Traditionally yes, recently no

Of course.. During the last years, we have seem some top three year olds running at Monmouth and surely it is a a top race.. Still, Travers has the heavier name when it comes to history and tradition

BELMONT 6-6-09
06-19-2015, 11:47 AM
The Haskell is a great race, BUT the Travers is the Haskell on steroids!! Ha ha

pandy
06-19-2015, 12:43 PM
The Haskell is a great race, BUT the Travers is the Haskell on steroids!! Ha ha


To me there is no comparison in terms of prestige, and the Travers is usually a tougher race to win....plus although Monmouth's track surface seems to be pretty good so far this year, it has been speed favoring the past couple of years and Saratoga is no longer an easy track for speed horses, it's actually a tiring track now.

nads1420
06-19-2015, 12:49 PM
If i could put money on it it still bet he winds up at Monmouth... How does it go over the course of 6 days from "MONMOUTH!!!!!!" to saratoga is " in the lead" i think its just a good business move by obviously very smart business people. and furthermore just read its the Jim Dandy not the Travers... yet. so if thats the case of course it makes more sense to go Haskell then Travers which would just be awesome. Jim Dandy woopy... vs your home state. c'mon in not buying it

PaceAdvantage
06-19-2015, 12:49 PM
That subjective... There really is nothing subjective about it...the Travers has always been held in much higher esteem than the Haskell.

And I'm not so sure about your argument concerning "This millennium..."

There's been some pretty damn nice horses too that have won the Travers from 2000 onward (or 2001 depending on your definition of millennium).

BELMONT 6-6-09
06-19-2015, 12:52 PM
I understand the business aspects $$$$$, but when you have the BEST, you race in the BEST RACE, the Travers stakes, the oldest race in the country! It is not called the Midsummer Derby for nothing. Just my opinion.

nads1420
06-19-2015, 12:53 PM
I understand the business aspects $$$$$, but when you have the BEST, you race in the BEST RACE, the Travers stakes, the oldest race in the country! It is not called the Midsummer Derby for nothing. Just my opinion.


true but its not 1950 anymore and why wouldnt you race in your home state then go to Travers

pandy
06-19-2015, 12:54 PM
I understand the business aspects $$$$$, but when you have the BEST, you race in the BEST RACE, the Travers stakes, the oldest race in the country! It is not called the Midsummer Derby for nothing. Just my opinion.


I totally agree with you. With a Triple Crown winner, you're pretty much obliged to go to the Travers. They'll be ridiculed if they skip it.

nads1420
06-19-2015, 12:55 PM
I totally agree with you. With a Triple Crown winner, you're pretty much obliged to go to the Travers. They'll be ridiculed if they skip it.


Triple crown, Haskell, Travers, BCC wins = best 3 year old campaign ever?

pandy
06-19-2015, 01:01 PM
Triple crown, Haskell, Travers, BCC wins = best 3 year old campaign ever?


Man O War was 11 for 11 but didn't run in the Derby. If AP wins the Travers and the Classic it would certainly put him in elite company.

nads1420
06-19-2015, 01:05 PM
Man O War was 11 for 11 but didn't run in the Derby. If AP wins the Travers and the Classic it would certainly put him in elite company.


another interesting path would be Haskell then JCGC vs CC and older horses then to the Classic. I find the path they choose for him oddly intriguing. If it was me Id take him for a lap around my home state track. That would be kinda cool. Thats why id like to see him run the Haskell... well, that and id like to do a Jersey shore weekend trip this summer and what better weekend then that... :)

DeltaLover
06-19-2015, 01:20 PM
Man O War was 11 for 11 but didn't run in the Derby. If AP wins the Travers and the Classic it would certainly put him in elite company.

Back then the Derby and the TC in general, was not what we know today.. They both were clearly less important targets for a 3yo

castaway01
06-19-2015, 02:01 PM
true but its not 1950 anymore and why wouldnt you race in your home state then go to Travers

To be fair, you were the one who started the thread about match races and had never heard of Ruffian, so perhaps you're not the only who should be talking about what things were like in 1950....

nads1420
06-19-2015, 02:07 PM
To be fair, you were the one who started the thread about match races and had never heard of Ruffian, so perhaps you're not the only who should be talking about what things were like in 1950....

that is true luckily im only 35 and still got many years, however i do know enough to know the Travers was a big deal at one point albeit the 1900's were a long time ago and this millennium its kinda been a powder puff race. Man i miss them damn 90's

PaceAdvantage
06-19-2015, 02:09 PM
that is true luckily im only 35 and still got many years, however i do know enough to know the Travers was a big deal at one point albeit the 1900's were a long time ago and this millenium its kinda been a powder puff race.Sigh. :bang:

I don't think it's worth it to take you to school...you're sounding more trollish by the moment...

But I'll repeat...the winners of the Travers since 2000-2001 vs. the winners of the Haskell during the same time period are not as divergent in quality as you would make it seem.

nads1420
06-19-2015, 02:22 PM
Sigh. :bang:

I don't think it's worth it to take you to school...you're sounding more trollish by the moment...

But I'll repeat...the winners of the Travers since 2000-2001 vs. the winners of the Haskell during the same time period are not as divergent in quality as you would make it seem.


hey man, its all in good fun. just the way i see it. i live in NY but im not partial to NYRA. I dont really have a rooting interest in tracks what so ever. I can see you are pro NYRA which is fine. I just dont see the point in being a fan of this states tracks or that states tracks or whatever. all good

Personally i just want to make it to Del Mar one day that place looks so cool. Kentucky Derby is obviously on the bucket list as well

letswastemoney
06-19-2015, 03:05 PM
I just don't get the point of beating 3 year olds again.

I vote for Whitney, JCGC, BC Classic.

PaceAdvantage
06-19-2015, 03:19 PM
hey man, its all in good fun. just the way i see it. i live in NY but im not partial to NYRA. I dont really have a rooting interest in tracks what so ever. I can see you are pro NYRA which is fine. I just dont see the point in being a fan of this states tracks or that states tracks or whatever. all good

Personally i just want to make it to Del Mar one day that place looks so cool. Kentucky Derby is obviously on the bucket list as wellWell, given the list of winners of each race since 2001, why is it you feel the Haskell currently dwarfs the Travers?

From 2001-2014, not counting Point Given since he won both races, I have the Haskell having a ONE RACE LEAD in terms of who had the better horse winning. Perhaps you are going on overall composition of field? I don't have access or the memory for who was in the field for all years...but basing it solely on the winner, the two races are pretty much even this millennium.

So I believe you're wrong in your assessment that the Travers has taken a backseat to the Haskell during this millennium.

Year Travers Haskell Comment
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2002 Medaglia d'Oro War Emblem Edge to Haskell (at time of race, but history showed MDO to be better horse)
2003 Ten Most Wanted Peace Rules Edge to Haskell
2004 Birdstone Lion Heart Edge to Travers
2005 Flower Alley Roman Ruler Edge to Travers
2006 Bernardini Bluegrass Cat Edge to Travers
2007 Street Sense Any Given Saturday Edge to Travers
2008 Colonel John Big Brown Edge to Haskell
2009 Summer Bird Rachel Alexandra Edge to Haskell
2010 Afleet Express Lookin at Lucky Edge to Haskell
2011 Stay Thirsty Coil Edge to Travers
2012 Alpha/Gldn Tckt Paynter Edge to Haskell
2013 Will Take Chrg Verrazano Edge to Travers
2014 V.E. Day Bayern Edge to Haskell

pandy
06-19-2015, 03:24 PM
I to believe that some of those Haskell's were easier fields overall, so even though horse that won was a fine horse, the field was probably not as competitive as the Travers.

nads1420
06-19-2015, 03:27 PM
maybe.... but if you take all those winners and rank them in order i think it would paint a different picture...

on a side note Paynter was a really good horse.... really underrated


and didnt he almost die then come back and win a race or 2... that was a good horse

nijinski
06-19-2015, 03:29 PM
In a post Belmont interview alluded to some to some slight bit of
caution . He said I feel like I want to put him away somewhere wrapped
up in a bubble .


Perhaps it was a moments frenzy but it hints to possibly keeping
things cautious or conservative . I would think he will stay with his age
group and go to the Haskell . Baffert has major success with this track
and Zayat initially wanted this .
I would be surprised if he meets older horses before the BCC .

PaceAdvantage
06-19-2015, 03:33 PM
maybe.... but if you take all those winners and rank them in order i think it would paint a different picture...

on a side note Paynter was a really good horse.... really underrated


and didnt he almost die then come back and win a race or 2... that was a good horsePaynter's only major win was the Haskell, was it not? He was 4 for 11 lifetime...are you sure he was underrated? He had a nice feel-good story to him in the end, but at the time of the Haskell/Travers that year, I would call that one a tie, although I gave the edge to the Haskell on name recognition alone...but that really came later, after the Travers/Haskell of 2012.

Like I said, this millennium, the two races are tied...the Haskell certainly does NOT have a big edge.

nads1420
06-19-2015, 03:47 PM
Paynter's only major win was the Haskell, was it not? He was 4 for 11 lifetime...are you sure he was underrated? He had a nice feel-good story to him in the end, but at the time of the Haskell/Travers that year, I would call that one a tie, although I gave the edge to the Haskell on name recognition alone...but that really came later, after the Travers/Haskell of 2012.

Like I said, this millennium, the two races are tied...the Haskell certainly does NOT have a big edge.

Big Brown and Rachel were rock stars. Biggest 2 names on that list.

What did Curlin's post triple crown season look like?

Redboard
06-19-2015, 04:06 PM
Baffert has such rotten luck in the Travers recently. Liaison(9th), Coil(10th), Bayern(10th), Roman ruler (3rd) the latter three were Haskell winners who went off at low odds. I believe the last time he won it was with Point Given.
It's a tough race to win. They don't call the SPA the graveyard of favorites for nothing.

burnsy
06-19-2015, 04:18 PM
Big Brown and Rachel were rock stars. Biggest 2 names on that list.

What did Curlin's post triple crown season look like?

It looked like winning the BC Classic as a 3 yo which both of the so called "rock stars" never bothered to enter. Plus, neither of those two could touch Curlin at 10 furlongs on real dirt. That's why I love betting, often times "Rock Star" and best horse are two different things. Oh yeah, he also threw in a Jockey Gold cup that year too.........and faced really good 3 yo's during the TC campaign including Street Sense and Rags To Riches....he was a real bum..... :rolleyes:

nads1420
06-19-2015, 04:28 PM
It looked like winning the BC Classic as a 3 yo which both of the so called "rock stars" never bothered to enter. Plus, neither of those two could touch Curlin at 10 furlongs on real dirt. That's why I love betting, often times "Rock Star" and best horse are two different things. Oh yeah, he also threw in a Jockey Gold cup that year too.........and faced really good 3 yo's during the TC campaign including Street Sense and Rags To Riches....he was a real bum..... :rolleyes:


you took that wrong bud... 2 separate statements, i was really curious about Curlin's rest of the year... no clue how Any Given Saturday beat him in the Haskell. Curlin was a world beater. Another rock star who went in the Haskell instead of the Travers and a better horse then Street Sense who won the Travers. But i did just look it up myself after the Haskell he went JCGC then BC Classic. If its up to me id take American Pharoah on the same path... Haskell, JCGC vs California Chrome then to the Breeders Cup Classic... One last race in the Dubai World Cup. Retire the worlds richest race horse. Hell of a career.

classhandicapper
06-19-2015, 04:31 PM
I have tickets and hotel reservations for both the Haskell and Travers. :jump:

My guess is that I am going to see American Pharoah in one and Dortmund in the other.

Personally, if AP was mine, I'd rather go in the Haskell. I think a 9F race off the freshening is a better spot to get him cranked back up than going straight back into a 10F race like the Travers that might require working him harder and turn out to be more draining. Then you springboard off the Haskell into a race against older and then the BC Classic.

Dortmund on the other hand should fit nicely into the Jim Dandy. He can use that as a prep to be back in shape for the Travers.

nijinski
06-19-2015, 04:33 PM
There really is nothing subjective about it...the Travers has always been held in much higher esteem than the Haskell.

And I'm not so sure about your argument concerning "This millennium..."

There's been some pretty damn nice horses too that have won the Travers from 2000 onward (or 2001 depending on your definition of millennium).

The Travers I agree is certainly great for the resume . It's a great historic
race and a festival that week .

Since many here are comparing AP and the 70's TC winners , looking
at there losses at Saratoga , it's a TC winner's gamble . .For those
with any superstitious tendencies it's a toss :lol:
Secretariat's loses up there .Affirmed loses to Alydar via dq and Slew later
in his career did win but in an allowance .

NY BRED
06-19-2015, 04:36 PM
SO, GUESS WHAT, WE MAY BE HAVE BEEN BLIND SIGHTED.

APPARENTLY, RUMORS SWIRILING ON TVG THAT DELMAR MAY SPIKE
THE PACIFIC CLASSIC TO 5,000,000.

QUITE INTERESTING THAT AP IS RELAXING IN CALIFORNIA.

ANYONE HAVE A LINK TO EXCHANGE BETTING???

:bang: :bang: :bang:

nijinski
06-19-2015, 04:52 PM
SO, GUESS WHAT, WE MAY BE HAVE BEEN BLIND SIGHTED.

APPARENTLY, RUMORS SWIRILING ON TVG THAT DELMAR MAY SPIKE
THE PACIFIC CLASSIC TO 5,000,000.

QUITE INTERESTING THAT AP IS RELAXING IN CALIFORNIA.

ANYONE HAVE A LINK TO EXCHANGE BETTING???

:bang: :bang: :bang:

Yes it's interesting and that would keep the shipping worry out and that would keep him in that bubble Baffort hinted to :D . Convenient !
AP ran well there too .
Some bashing expected if they accept .

JustRalph
06-19-2015, 04:57 PM
Medaglia d'Oro War Emblem

History...... is just plain homophobic...... Huh?

Just because one of them was gay......no reason to talk him down.....

westny
06-19-2015, 11:52 PM
Medaglia d'Oro War Emblem

History...... is just plain homophobic...... Huh?

Just because one of them was gay......no reason to talk him down.....

I didn't know that...which one? :eek:

nijinski
06-19-2015, 11:57 PM
I didn't know that...which one? :eek:

War Emblem was quite shy with the Mares at stud . Mean too
see article

Thus, for the last several years, War Emblem has lived a kind of stallion dream life. Housed in a small barn in a quiet area of Katsumi Yoshida’s Northern Farm, he has had his pick of literally hundreds of mares over the past several seasons, with more than 300 led past him in 2010 alone.

He tries to bite and threatens to kick or strike mares he doesn’t like—and sometimes the people who handle him as well.
- See more at: http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/around-the-globe/archive/2012/07/17/war-emblem.aspx#sthash.pGSpJWqs.dpuf

JustRalph
06-20-2015, 12:14 AM
I didn't know that...which one? :eek:

It was a just a joke.......

one of them refuses to breed. and it ain't MDORO

affirmedny
06-20-2015, 12:22 AM
Well, given the list of winners of each race since 2001, why is it you feel the Haskell currently dwarfs the Travers?

From 2001-2014, not counting Point Given since he won both races, I have the Haskell having a ONE RACE LEAD in terms of who had the better horse winning. Perhaps you are going on overall composition of field? I don't have access or the memory for who was in the field for all years...but basing it solely on the winner, the two races are pretty much even this millennium.

So I believe you're wrong in your assessment that the Travers has taken a backseat to the Haskell during this millennium.

Year Travers Haskell
Comment
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2002 Medaglia d'Oro War Emblem Edge to Haskell (at time of race, but history showed MDO to be better horse)
2003 Ten Most Wanted Peace Rules Edge to Haskell
2004 Birdstone Lion Heart Edge to Travers
2005 Flower Alley Roman Ruler Edge to Travers
2006 Bernardini Bluegrass Cat Edge to Travers
2007 Street Sense Any Given Saturday Edge to Travers
2008 Colonel John Big Brown Edge to Haskell
2009 Summer Bird Rachel Alexandra Edge to Haskell
2010 Afleet Express Lookin at Lucky Edge to Haskell
2011 Stay Thirsty Coil Edge to Travers
2012 Alpha/Gldn Tckt Paynter Edge to Haskell
2013 Will Take Chrg Verrazano Edge to Travers
2014 V.E. Day Bayern Edge to Haskell

How can the Haskell get the edge in 2014 when the winner ran DEAD LAST in the Travers???

menifee
06-20-2015, 01:28 AM
How can the Haskell get the edge in 2014 when the winner ran DEAD LAST in the Travers???

Bayern went on to win the BC Classic. VE Day is not a good horse. As a matter of fact, Bayern is not really that good of a horse. However, if Bayern gets a comfortable lead, he can run with the best and beat them as in the BC Classic. If Bayern does not get an easy lead (he fades like in the Travers last year). VE Day is a grade III horse as best who won the Travers because he got the perfect trip and perfect pace scenario.

I don't understand why they don't run both. The Haskell will be a paid workout.

nads1420
06-20-2015, 07:40 AM
most interesting thing about this thread is the fact that people are partial to NYRA... thats just flat out weird

Tom
06-20-2015, 11:20 AM
Originally Posted by nads1420
Big Brown and Rachel were rock stars. Biggest 2 names on that list.
What did Curlin's post triple crown season look like?

You're kidding, right? He went on the a vrey successful career.
Do you watch much racing? :rolleyes:

westny
06-20-2015, 11:30 AM
War Emblem was quite shy with the Mares at stud . Mean too
see article

Thus, for the last several years, War Emblem has lived a kind of stallion dream life. Housed in a small barn in a quiet area of Katsumi Yoshida’s Northern Farm, he has had his pick of literally hundreds of mares over the past several seasons, with more than 300 led past him in 2010 alone.

He tries to bite and threatens to kick or strike mares he doesn’t like—and sometimes the people who handle him as well.
- See more at: http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/around-the-globe/archive/2012/07/17/war-emblem.aspx#sthash.pGSpJWqs.dpuf

Thanks for that recent article.

I can see WE's "point of view" Smart horse. The Japanese breed their stallions alot... he'll last longer with less breeding.

Gallorette
06-20-2015, 12:20 PM
Wait a minute...a member of this forum didn't know who Ruffian was? Shouldn't there be a test or something before joining? :D :D

castaway01
06-20-2015, 01:40 PM
Wait a minute...a member of this forum didn't know who Ruffian was? Shouldn't there be a test or something before joining? :D :D

I actually felt bad because he asked why there were no match races, and I posted a link to the Ruffian-Foolish Pleasure story, figuring it was a reminder. When he'd never heard of Ruffian, I thought, oh man, that's a rough one to read without any warning.

My issue is why someone who doesn't know who Ruffian is is lecturing on the history of racing. It's like someone who doesn't know who the Beatles are lecturing about the British Invasion. :)

He apparently also doesn't know who Curlin is, who while no Ruffian was a damn solid horse. So I guess he just enjoys posting to post. We've got a few of those people already, so one more won't hurt. Except to read.

Oh, and to stay on topic, I live in Jersey but I think Pharoah should go Travers--JCGC--Classic. Don't count out the Haskell yet though.

letswastemoney
06-20-2015, 02:08 PM
If American Pharoah points towards into the Pacific Classic...I can probably get a press badge. Go Del Mar!!!

Gallorette
06-20-2015, 02:21 PM
I actually dreamt last night that they brought AP to Emerald Downs (I'm in Seattle). Yep, definitely a dream :lol: can you imagine? Although, I seem to recall that the Taylor's brought Slew to Longacres, because of their allegiance to WA of course...

I'd love PC but that turns out to be a weekend I can't travel since I have to east for work. I have a friend who lives in Sarasota so the Travers is my pick.

Gallorette
06-20-2015, 02:23 PM
Adding that Slew was not brought to Longacres to race of course, but just to "parade", I think....

kinznk
06-20-2015, 04:24 PM
I actually dreamt last night that they brought AP to Emerald Downs (I'm in Seattle). Yep, definitely a dream :lol: can you imagine?

An American Pharaoh match up with Stryker PhD in the Longacres Mile would be epic.

badcompany
06-20-2015, 05:12 PM
I just don't get the point of beating 3 year olds again.

I vote for Whitney, JCGC, BC Classic.

The folks in Toga would be happy if he chose the Woodward. He would draw a massive crowd to what is normally a dead weekend.

NY BRED
06-20-2015, 07:05 PM
Part two of my original post as respects AP racing in the
Pacific Classic as against the Travers and/or Haskell:

who is coming to the party?

I can't envision those horses pointing to the Travers shipping
to California, even if compensated by Delmar.

Probable entries would be those pointed to the Haskell.

Sure, all sorts of issues can happen prior to or during a race,
but this could be a potential score for Zayat by staying in California.

Meanwhile, Haskell was sold out last week....

Vinman
06-20-2015, 08:59 PM
As a season ticket holder at Saratoga I would love to see AP go Haskell & then Travers. No shot for Jim Dandy unless NYRA bumps the 600k purse to beyond the Haskell's 1MM. The problem with the Travers getting AP is that it's 10 furlongs, on what could be a hot, humid day off relatively short rest from the 8/2 Haskell. After Bayern ran up the track in the Travers last year after the Haskell win, Baffert could well decide to skip the Travers and go right to the Penn Derby, which he won with Bayern. Yes, a Travers win would put AP in the same elite company as Whirlaway in winning the Travers following the Triple Crown. But if AP wins the BC Classic, not running in the Travers won't matter as much. In the end Baffert will do what is best for the horse, not, what's best for a certain track, as he has said. For this reason Bobby will push for the Haskell, a race he's 7-0 in, and the Penn Derby. The PARX folks will do "whatever" moneywise to land AP. Best chance for AP to do Travers will be if Zayat wants it. We shall see....

Vinman

NY BRED
06-21-2015, 08:58 AM
While I agree with your thoughts, DMR is literally off the Pacific
and despite Zayat's tweets on which track is "on the lead",
the final decision will be made by Baffert.

If Vegas was giving odds on the chosen track, I'd take a big swing
for California, as I believe this decision has already been made,as AP
is in Ca, why travel to NY/NJ???

BTW, I wouldn't rule out skipping all races until the Breeders Cup
based on AP's campaign. I'd take this thought on a Vegas 100-1
prop :D , but nothing would surprise me at this point, other than
going to the Travers.

F**(NG) MTH was sold out last week, might hedge my bet by
buying scalped tix at MTH.


later..

Kash$
06-21-2015, 09:42 AM
Few years ago Baffert tried the Haskell/Travers double with Coil..

Coil won the Haskell
Ran last in the Travers.

Not comparing horses..

alhattab
06-21-2015, 10:14 AM
Anyone have an idea how much it would cost to insure AP for a race? Someone- no insurance expert by any means but knowledgeable about the game- suggested $1 million. For a horse worth $30 million or so, I thought that might be on the high end, but in the ballpark. Even if insurance cost is half that amount, what is the economic incentive to run in anything but the BC Classic or an event with bonus potential? I know the connections at least publicly have said they want to do right by the game, but at some point the economics must trump sentimentalism.

badcompany
06-21-2015, 10:20 AM
Anyone have an idea how much it would cost to insure AP for a race? Someone- no insurance expert by any means but knowledgeable about the game- suggested $1 million. For a horse worth $30 million or so, I thought that might be on the high end, but in the ballpark. Even if insurance cost is half that amount, what is the economic incentive to run in anything but the BC Classic or an event with bonus potential? I know the connections at least publicly have said they want to do right by the game, but at some point the economics must trump sentimentalism.

Gotta agree. The Risk/Reward ratio seems way too high to run the horse, again.

NY BRED
06-21-2015, 10:35 AM
JUST TO ADD SOME SPICE TO MY DELMAR THOUGHT:

advertisement popped up on the Paulick report

:bang: :bang: :bang:


Ship & Win at Del Mar




Ship & Win is back! Got a runner? Come to Del Mar.
Ship & Win

Start a horse at Del Mar – who last ran out of state – and get an extra 30% bonus on top of purse money in that first race! Not to mention the automatic check for

not for nothing, if the rumor is true that DMR will jump the
purse to 5,000,000 who needs the Breeders Cup?

NY BRED
06-21-2015, 01:05 PM
I stand corrected on the bonus offered by Delmar as
Stakes Races are excluded

Fager Fan
06-21-2015, 02:15 PM
While I agree with your thoughts, DMR is literally off the Pacific
and despite Zayat's tweets on which track is "on the lead",
the final decision will be made by Baffert.

If Vegas was giving odds on the chosen track, I'd take a big swing
for California, as I believe this decision has already been made,as AP
is in Ca, why travel to NY/NJ???

BTW, I wouldn't rule out skipping all races until the Breeders Cup
based on AP's campaign. I'd take this thought on a Vegas 100-1
prop :D , but nothing would surprise me at this point, other than
going to the Travers.

F**(NG) MTH was sold out last week, might hedge my bet by
buying scalped tix at MTH.


later..

He shipped to CA because that's where his trainer is.

Fager Fan
06-21-2015, 02:20 PM
Anyone have an idea how much it would cost to insure AP for a race? Someone- no insurance expert by any means but knowledgeable about the game- suggested $1 million. For a horse worth $30 million or so, I thought that might be on the high end, but in the ballpark. Even if insurance cost is half that amount, what is the economic incentive to run in anything but the BC Classic or an event with bonus potential? I know the connections at least publicly have said they want to do right by the game, but at some point the economics must trump sentimentalism.

Figure 5% for a year's coverage, so $1.5m, or around $600k prorated fore when he retires in Nov. Also, if Zayat's already been paid, as some believe was done so he could pay off the bankruptcy, then Zayat's not paying the insurance, Coolmoore is.

burnsy
06-21-2015, 03:46 PM
As a season ticket holder at Saratoga I would love to see AP go Haskell & then Travers. No shot for Jim Dandy unless NYRA bumps the 600k purse to beyond the Haskell's 1MM. The problem with the Travers getting AP is that it's 10 furlongs, on what could be a hot, humid day off relatively short rest from the 8/2 Haskell. After Bayern ran up the track in the Travers last year after the Haskell win, Baffert could well decide to skip the Travers and go right to the Penn Derby, which he won with Bayern. Yes, a Travers win would put AP in the same elite company as Whirlaway in winning the Travers following the Triple Crown. But if AP wins the BC Classic, not running in the Travers won't matter as much. In the end Baffert will do what is best for the horse, not, what's best for a certain track, as he has said. For this reason Bobby will push for the Haskell, a race he's 7-0 in, and the Penn Derby. The PARX folks will do "whatever" moneywise to land AP. Best chance for AP to do Travers will be if Zayat wants it. We shall see....

Vinman

I think you could be right and there maybe some "head bumping" or "friendly negotiating" going on. Just about every owner covets a Saratoga win, even in the cheaper races. If Zayat can win the biggest race of the meet in front of all the others (owners) and make an historic example.....you know he's tempted, just by what he's saying. That horse will be inducted across the street from Saratoga Race Course soon enough and a win in the Travers makes him look even better. On the other hand, Baffert may be in no hurry to run there at 10f. As mentioned he's had some win the Haskell, come to Saratoga as the fave and run up the track. I don't have the stat at hand but I think Baffert's two turn, recent history at Saratoga has been awful if my memory is correct. I also believe it's one of the reasons he bitches about the track. I was looking at it last year before Bayern pissed the bucket and it was one of the reasons I did not like him in the Travers. The track is not "quirky" but it's sure deeper than Monmouth and the extra furlong is a killer. That's how a horse like VE Day can win there.

nads I thought you were serious about Curlin, my bad.

alhattab
06-21-2015, 07:20 PM
Figure 5% for a year's coverage, so $1.5m, or around $600k prorated fore when he retires in Nov. Also, if Zayat's already been paid, as some believe was done so he could pay off the bankruptcy, then Zayat's not paying the insurance, Coolmoore is.

Fager is the coverage the same whether he runs or not? I would figure the cost of the coverage would be significantly higher if he were to race as compared to not racing as the risk is considerably higher running. Any idea? thx

Fager Fan
06-21-2015, 08:30 PM
Fager is the coverage the same whether he runs or not? I would figure the cost of the coverage would be significantly higher if he were to race as compared to not racing as the risk is considerably higher running. Any idea? thx

There's a higher rate for racing and training. The cost falls to 2-3% if they're breeding stock. You may also find a policy that adjusts to the lower rate when the horse is laid up or getting a vacation at a farm.

Knowing of kickers, available purses, and the competition that's out there, the risk to reward ratio means the horse should keep running as long as he's doing well.

nijinski
06-21-2015, 10:26 PM
Figure 5% for a year's coverage, so $1.5m, or around $600k prorated fore when he retires in Nov. Also, if Zayat's already been paid, as some believe was done so he could pay off the bankruptcy, then Zayat's not paying the insurance, Coolmoore is.

Those were very close to the rates over 25 years ago are they still that low?

That was about the premium price it would cost for Alomas Ruler after
he won the Preakness .

PaceAdvantage
06-22-2015, 03:51 PM
How can the Haskell get the edge in 2014 when the winner ran DEAD LAST in the Travers???Because it's my list. Make your own list.

Who is a more marquee winner? Bayern or V.E. Day? I went with Bayern. Both horses weren't exactly setting the world on fire prior to their Haskell/Travers wins...V.E. Day basically did nothing after the Travers...Bayern did a bit more...

Plus I forgot Bayern ran last in the Travers...

But even with that knowledge, I stick to my initial guns.

PaceAdvantage
06-22-2015, 03:52 PM
most interesting thing about this thread is the fact that people are partial to NYRA... thats just flat out weirdYeah...crazy that some people might favor one track over another...just nutty...

nads1420
06-22-2015, 03:57 PM
Because it's my list. Make your own list.


thats great... :lol: funny cause its true

EMD4ME
06-22-2015, 07:55 PM
An American Pharaoh match up with Stryker PhD in the Longacres Mile would be epic.

Add in 2 or 3 speeds and tactical stalkers and I'll take a wager on Stryker PhD....

affirmedny
06-22-2015, 10:45 PM
Because it's my list. Make your own list.

Who is a more marquee winner? Bayern or V.E. Day? I went with Bayern. Both horses weren't exactly setting the world on fire prior to their Haskell/Travers wins...V.E. Day basically did nothing after the Travers...Bayern did a bit more...

Plus I forgot Bayern ran last in the Travers...

But even with that knowledge, I stick to my initial guns.


Obviously you also forgot that grade 1 winners Tonalist and the hard luck Wicked Strong were in the Travers while the only G1 runner Bayern faced in the Haskell was the overmatched filly Untapable. But ok it's your list. ;)

nads1420
06-23-2015, 08:03 AM
Obviously you also forgot that grade 1 winners Tonalist and the hard luck Wicked Strong were in the Travers while the only G1 runner Bayern faced in the Haskell was the overmatched filly Untapable. But ok it's your list. ;)


if you wanna judge by the horses entered then Curlin 2007 and that ends the argument because some of the best horses of this millennium ran in the Haskell over the Travers.

Curlin, Big Brown, Rachel, Point Given. thats prob the 4 best to race in the 2 races since 2000. Granted Point Given ran in both. That Big Brown Haskell was a great stretch run call by Collmus

https://youtu.be/EufebE8bcH4?t=5m7s

onefast99
06-23-2015, 11:07 AM
Figure 5% for a year's coverage, so $1.5m, or around $600k prorated fore when he retires in Nov. Also, if Zayat's already been paid, as some believe was done so he could pay off the bankruptcy, then Zayat's not paying the insurance, Coolmoore is.
He paid off the bankruptcy in 2014 prior to receiving the offer and money for the breeding rights to AP.

Fager Fan
06-23-2015, 01:07 PM
He paid off the bankruptcy in 2014 prior to receiving the offer and money for the breeding rights to AP.

Not according to the scuttlebutt among people who work in the sport.

Redboard
06-23-2015, 02:39 PM
He paid off the bankruptcy in 2014 prior to receiving the offer and money for the breeding rights to AP.

He's had legal fees for the recent lawsuits against him, which he paid off with the breeding sale. Zayat is not a Jess Jackson or Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al Maktoum. He sold his beer company in 2002, and got a nice chunk of change, but has done nothing except own and race horses since 2007, I believe. This hobby can break you quick.

I have no problem with any of this and no problem if he maximizes his investment in AP from here on out. Run him, breed him, that's his decision. AP has already proved he's the second coming, and has nothing left to prove on the track.

onefast99
06-23-2015, 03:22 PM
Not according to the scuttlebutt among people who work in the sport.
He filed a bk 11 his re-organization plan was approved and he had until 2014 to settle with his creditors. If he owes any monies to anyone that wasn't listed as a creditor that is a different story.

PaceAdvantage
06-23-2015, 03:22 PM
Obviously you also forgot that grade 1 winners Tonalist and the hard luck Wicked Strong were in the Travers while the only G1 runner Bayern faced in the Haskell was the overmatched filly Untapable. But ok it's your list. ;)You're not using the same criteria as I am...but you're right...the Travers that year was the better race. Thanks for clarifying.

My attempt was to prove the this guy nads wrong when he stated the Haskell has been kicking the Travers ass over the last 10-15 years or so...I believe I've done just that...

onefast99
06-23-2015, 03:31 PM
He's had legal fees for the recent lawsuits against him, which he paid off with the breeding sale. Zayat is not a Jess Jackson or Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al Maktoum. He sold his beer company in 2002, and got a nice chunk of change, but has done nothing except own and race horses since 2007, I believe. This hobby can break you quick.

I have no problem with any of this and no problem if he maximizes his investment in AP from here on out. Run him, breed him, that's his decision. AP has already proved he's the second coming, and has nothing left to prove on the track.
None of those legal fees were associated with the 2010 bk.

nads1420
06-23-2015, 07:34 PM
You're not using the same criteria as I am...but you're right...the Travers that year was the better race. Thanks for clarifying.

My attempt was to prove the this guy nads wrong when he stated the Haskell has been kicking the Travers ass over the last 10-15 years or so...I believe I've done just that...

nope sure didnt cause then you need to add Curlin into 2007 which ends the argument.

Tonalist and Wicked Strong... lol pleeeeeeaaaaase. give me a break andy sterling. and when Pharoah goes to the Haskell it puts the nail in this argument's coffin.


disclaimer: this is a stupid ass debate, i know that

affirmedny
06-23-2015, 07:39 PM
You're not using the same criteria as I am...but you're right...the Travers that year was the better race. Thanks for clarifying.

My attempt was to prove the this guy nads wrong when he stated the Haskell has been kicking the Travers ass over the last 10-15 years or so...I believe I've done just that...

The Haskell is usually one great or very good horse against 5 tomato cans, the Travers is usually a much more competitive race. Of course some years there are exceptions.

nads1420
06-23-2015, 07:46 PM
The Haskell is usually one great or very good horse against 5 tomato cans, the Travers is usually a much more competitive race. Of course some years there are exceptions.

very fair statement and was kinda my point Pharoah will go to the Haskell because for whatever reason the folks at Monmouth are beating the snot out of NYRA when it comes to landing the big time horse. Which means the Travers will be a damn good wide open race this year

pandy
06-23-2015, 07:51 PM
very fair statement and was kinda my point Pharoah will go to the Haskell because for whatever reason the folks at Monmouth are beating the snot out of NYRA when it comes to landing the big time horse. Which means the Travers will be a damn good wide open race this year


Yep. The Haskell will probably have 5 horses in it and the Travers will have a nice full field.

affirmedny
06-23-2015, 07:57 PM
very fair statement and was kinda my point Pharoah will go to the Haskell because for whatever reason the folks at Monmouth are beating the snot out of NYRA when it comes to landing the big time horse. Which means the Travers will be a damn good wide open race this year

It's no secret, they bribe the trainer.

nads1420
06-23-2015, 08:05 PM
Yep. The Haskell will probably have 5 horses in it and the Travers will have a nice full field.


yeah Travers will be great if it got Dortmund, Frosted, Firing Line etc...

EMD4ME
06-23-2015, 08:18 PM
What is Bob Baffert's success rate at

1) The SPA?

2) In Graded Stakes on Dirt at the SPA?

thespaah
06-23-2015, 09:54 PM
The Haskell is usually one great or very good horse against 5 tomato cans, the Travers is usually a much more competitive race. Of course some years there are exceptions.
Perhaps that is why connections of some of the better horses go to the Haskell instead of the Travers because they know their horse will be facing tougher.
Plus, the Haskell is 9f where the Travers is classic distance AND all colts and geldings must carry 126 lbs. The Haskell is a stake run under allowance conditions.

Fager Fan
06-24-2015, 07:28 AM
He filed a bk 11 his re-organization plan was approved and he had until 2014 to settle with his creditors. If he owes any monies to anyone that wasn't listed as a creditor that is a different story.

There's not a huge time difference between Dec 2014 and Jan 2015. Maybe he was a month late.

classhandicapper
06-24-2015, 10:49 AM
very fair statement and was kinda my point Pharoah will go to the Haskell because for whatever reason the folks at Monmouth are beating the snot out of NYRA when it comes to landing the big time horse. Which means the Travers will be a damn good wide open race this year


IMO, the Travers at 10F is a more demanding race than the Haskell at 9F. If you have a top 3yo from the Triple Crown that has since been freshened, it makes some sense to look for an easier spot than the Travers first off the freshening. To do that, you have two good choices - the Jim Dandy or Haskell. They occur at around the same time and are both at 9F. The Haskell is a Grade 1 with a bigger purse. So why not start back up in the Haskell and think about the Travers and other options later unless you think a race over the Saratoga track is very significant. Horses that run well in the Haskell and are clearly suited to the 10F may opt for the Haskell/Travers double. Those that disappoint, that are better at 9F, or that are looking to stay fresh for the Classic, might opt for another race or more time between races and skip the Travers.

nads1420
06-27-2015, 08:04 AM
got to figure we will know if its the Haskell with in the next 2 weeks...

Kash$
06-27-2015, 08:06 AM
1-2 it will be the Haskell

nads1420
06-28-2015, 11:56 AM
he looked a little skinny in some of the pics i saw last night. anyone else notice that?

Kash$
07-02-2015, 06:34 PM
1-2 it will be the Haskell
He will run in the Haskell according to his fb page..

nads1420
07-02-2015, 07:31 PM
My attempt was to prove the this guy nads wrong when he stated the Haskell has been kicking the Travers ass over the last 10-15 years or so...I believe I've done just that...



you would believe wrong turns out this guy nads is right lol :lol:

PaceAdvantage
07-06-2015, 11:24 AM
you would believe wrong turns out this guy nads is right lol :lol:You can keep telling yourself that...facts don't really bear it out...