Royal Ascot: Anybody Playing

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Just watching personally, just wondering if anybody has some plays or insight.

[PhantomOnTour]

have been betting against some big favorites and still not cashing :bang:
Missed the longshot #4 in previous race while going against big chalk #1 Integral...

Going against low priced #5 here in R4...basically have the 2-6-9 boxed with a win bet on the #2

[Lemon Drop Husker]

9 was the better horse. 5 just got first, and a cleaner, run.

[flatstats]

If ever you want to see a perfect example of the favourite / longshot bias then look at Royal Ascot.

For years the public underbet most of the horses there. They shy away from favourites and opt for bigger prices. Bookmakers have to balance their books and thus favs are seriously underbet.

Prior to this week backing all favourites in the Stakes races has returned a profit of 19%. The strike rates are usually around the 40% mark each year, and the A/Es in winning years are hitting 1.2, 1.3, 1.4+

In the past 10 years there have been 4 losing years with ROIs of -6%, -34%, -12%, and -16% but if you can be a bit more selective (weed out the false fav / hyped horses) it's easy money.

Why does this happen? Because the course is so awash with extremely rich, mostly drunk, once or twice a year punters. They are risk averse with favourites and tend to pick bigger prices. Bookmakers have to balance their books and so have to offer more generous than expected odds on those favourites.

The advantage for favourite backers is even more pronounced at Betfair Starting Price.