Let's handicap the Hardwicke (Royal Ascot) on Saturday

[letswastemoney]

I wrote an article on this one, but most of my choices are chalky.

Telescope the Light of Hardwicke Stakes (https://www.ladyandthetrack.com/news/12970/telescope-the-light-of-hardwicke-stakes.html)

Telescope was so dominating last year and looked like a 12 furlong monster. It made me wonder how he ever lost the Breeders Cup later on. Interestingly, the Breeders' Cup was Telescope's worst finish.

Also, I just realized that The Corsican is also entered in the Prince of Wales and doesn't appear scratched, so including him in my write-up was likely for nothing.

[zerosky]

With Ryan Moore aboard Telescope it looks like a mortal lock...
(famous last words :D )

[horses4courses]

With Ryan Moore aboard Telescope it looks like a mortal lock...
(famous last words :D )

Chances are, you will be right.
Telescope won it last year, and he will be short odds to repeat.
Michael Stoute has trained five of the last nine winners of this race.
Eagle Top and Postponed the biggest dangers.

Good luck!

[flatstats]

This race does tend to go to the fancied runners / the favourite and as is usual with Royal Ascot Stakes races these horses are usually underbet by the public and thus should be good value.

Telescope is the clear favourite according to Betfair:

Telescope 2.50 digital odds
Postponed 4.10
Eagle Top 4.70

The rest of the field are priced in double figures.

Either of the top 2 or 3 should win this (obviously based on the odds). But there are far too many positives for all the contenders.

You can look at the stats for trainer John Gosden, Saturday, 4yos and see that he targets this:

RSB Turf Stat Gosden, 4yo, Saturday 51 wins, 219 runs, 23.3% strike rate, 1.35 A/E, 66.4% profit, 37.7 Exp, 5.7 Archie

So that boosts Eagle Top.

Postponed has exactly the same FS rating as Telescope so what do you do?

Back the shorter price because the market is smarter, or back the bigger price because it is better value?

I don't know what you US guys do in this situation: exacta, trifecta, ?? All I know is that there is an underbet fav here, but with a very worthy 2nd and 3rd favs. I would tend to skip the race.

[letswastemoney]

Not sure what FS means.

Only reviewed some races on video, and Telescope just looked in another class than these. In a way, not having speed figures to work with was liberating, as I didn't have any numbers to influence my thoughts.

[flatstats]

1st Snow Sky 12/1
2nd Eagle Top 2/1
3rd Postponed 7/2

Telescope 6/4f

Exacta paid £44.50 to a £1 stake

Stoute wins again - not with the fav, but with his second string horse.

Stoute has a second string index of 0.69, which means he tends to be better value with his first string.

Stoute First String: 17% strike rate, 27% loss
Stoute Second String: 5%, 59% loss

Note that there is no coupling for GB betting outlets so you don't win if you backed Telescope in this country.

[letswastemoney]

Telescope was plain awful. There was no way that was his best effort, as he looked fine in his two prep races.

Congratulations to Snow Sky.

[PhantomOnTour]

Diamond Jubilee

Giving #11 Pearl Secret and #14 Wandjina for Gai Waterhouse a shot to hit the board.
#6 Glass Office even has a shot at a minor award

EX: 3-10 w 3-6-10-11-14
WIN: 11-14

trying to beat the mighty Ryan Moore on #5 Due Diligence as he looks to be taking money on connections alone...seems in a bit over his head

[horses4courses]

Undrafted for Wesley Ward and Wes Welker
Another winner for Frankie Dettori - what a season he's having.

That's the first Ward winner that hasn't been an underlay for US bettors.
Looks like he returns 16-1, which is same as UK odds.

[DelMarJay]

Undrafted for Wesley Ward and Wes Welker
Another winner for Frankie Dettori - what a season he's having.


I tried to tell ya all after the BC that Undrafted was the real thing.