Noble Bird 10-1 M/L, Off at 9/2 in the SF?

[infrontby1]

And against the likes of Lea, Hopportunity and Commissioner.

What did the crowd see in this 4 year old who never won a stakes race, let alone only a couple of allowance races to bet him down so much?

We all know that 2 and 3 year olds can step up dramatically in no time against proven runners, but against an accomplished field of older horses at the Grade I level?

I'm sure class and traditional style handicappers hate to encounter results like this as they have no rational explanation based solely on class theories.

[infrontby1]

Maybe Ubercapper who picked him to win in another thread can chime in here.

[JustRalph]

And against the likes of Lea, Hopportunity and Commissioner.

What did the crowd see in this 4 year old who never won a stakes race, let alone only a couple of allowance races to bet him down so much?

We all know that 2 and 3 year olds can step up dramatically in no time against proven runners, but against an accomplished field of older horses at the Grade I level?

I'm sure class and traditional style handicappers hate to encounter results like this as they have no rational explanation based solely on class theories.

Jcapper money. He looked pretty good in Jcapper. My UDM's loved the horse

I picked him in another thread

[letswastemoney]

I thought he could hit the board.

Last start was only allowance in name. Honor Code was crushed in that race.

[Dahoss2002]

He was 4th choice in a 7 horse field and those proven horses are not exactly world beaters.

[cj]

His last race was much better than the listed G3. He also ran a very good TimeformUS Speed Figure while nearly overcoming a slow pace.

[Stillriledup]

I could have sworn he was 6-1 but maybe he was 9-2 at gate load?

[Sparky13]

My old ADPA Sytems software picked Noble Bird #1 when I used the criteria of "best 1 of last 3". Also, Saturday it picked King Kreesa #1 ($36.80) in the Poker at Belmont.

[cj]

I could have sworn he was 6-1 but maybe he was 9-2 at gate load?

Nope, he actually drifted up late. He was 7-2 at one point, then 4-1 with a few MTP, then settled in at 9-2.

[infrontby1]

Nope, he actually drifted up late. He was 7-2 at one point, then 4-1 with a few MTP, then settled in at 9-2.

And what would your take on him been CJ, had this race been run, say 15-20 years ago without all this advanced handicapping technology available at out fingertips?

My point is, are the class handicappers going the way of typewriters, 8 tracks, and floppy discs?

[Tall One]

His back class, and human connections, were hard to ignore. Casse goes to Bridgmohan, it's usually go time, and as DaHoss noted, against a smallish, suspect field.

Solid run by Lea though.

[alf1380]

On Paper..it was logical.

Paganol was the clear cut speed, and figured to do all the dirty work for Hoppertunity and Lea, Commissioner was a No Show, Noble Bird didn't hook up and sat patiently.

Bridgmohan judged the pace perfectly, and sat the perfect trip..took over going for home..and held off Lea.

A Good ride sometimes makes the difference.

Full Disclosure: I did not have him. I thought Lea was the easy winner, and I was a bit confused about the exacta, saw short prices, and passed on the race.

[TravisVOX]

It was no secret around CD all week that he was training great, doing well and that they were excited about his chances.

In other words, lots of steam.

[cj]

And what would your take on him been CJ, had this race been run, say 15-20 years ago without all this advanced handicapping technology available at out fingertips?

My point is, are the class handicappers going the way of typewriters, 8 tracks, and floppy discs?

I really don't know, I guess he wouldn't have lookes as good. But really 15-20 years ago I was making pace figures so I probably still would have liked him. Well 15, yes, 20 no, started somewhere in between. But I was doing speed figures as long as 30 years ago.

[Stillriledup]

Nope, he actually drifted up late. He was 7-2 at one point, then 4-1 with a few MTP, then settled in at 9-2.

I could have sworn he was 6-1 at one point in the betting, i must have looked at another horse, ill take your word for it. Thanks.

[ubercapper]

Maybe Ubercapper who picked him to win in another thread can chime in here.

Thanks.

I picked Noble Bird as most probable to win because he was four year who had likely not run his best race yet. He was on on an improving pattern of efforts and had made the lead in the stretch in a stakes (Alysheba) at Churchill Downs last month, just losing on the wire to a more mature, multiple stakes winner (Protonico). Secondarily, his chance for improving again was backed up by a rising pattern of Equibase (and Beyer) figures, the 120 Equibase figure earned in the Alysheba as good as Lea's best ever figure (earned in the Donn in 2014).

As I wrote in my analysis (it was the Equibase & ABR weekly feature race) Hoppertunity was giving away recency (2-4 months) to Noble Bird, Lea and Commissioner, and of the 3 contenders, only Noble Bird offered acceptable value as a win bet.

http://www.equibase.com/analysis/061315preanalysis.cfm

I've been plagued with 2nd picks on the Weekly Feature Race analysis winning most of the year so it was nice to get a top pick home.

[raybo]

And against the likes of Lea, Hopportunity and Commissioner.

What did the crowd see in this 4 year old who never won a stakes race, let alone only a couple of allowance races to bet him down so much?

We all know that 2 and 3 year olds can step up dramatically in no time against proven runners, but against an accomplished field of older horses at the Grade I level?

I'm sure class and traditional style handicappers hate to encounter results like this as they have no rational explanation based solely on class theories.

Not really a big surprise. Lea was coming off a 77 day layoff and Hoppertunity was coming off a 126 day layoff. Noble Bird had slightly better speed figures in his last 3 compared to Commissioner (119, 114, 102 versus 118, 112, 102). Noble Bird had a very good late pace figure last race (143), by far the best late figure in the race.

I use JCapper files by the way so other figures may differ, don't know, and don't use them anyway. The velocities in my program had Noble Bird second only to Cat Burglar who hasn't been the same horse he was this time last year.

My most predictive rating, "PFV" (PowerFormVelocity) had Noble Bird ranked 2nd behind Cat Burglar, with Lea 3rd, Commissioner 4th, and Hoppertunity 5th. I personally ranked Noble Bird above Cat Burglar because the latter's last race was a G3 in which he lost ground to the leaders mid and late. Noble Bird also ranked 2nd behind Cat Burglar in my "FV" (Final Velocities - highest total velocity) rating.

To answer your question about Class players, yes, they must have been surprised and confused, as my "Class" ratings had Noble Bird ranked only 5th.

[classhandicapper]

My point is, are the class handicappers going the way of typewriters, 8 tracks, and floppy discs?

I thought he looked like a contender on class.

He missed by a head in a Grade 2 race that IMO was clearly superior to the races Commissioner had just won. Not that Commissioner looked like a toss, but I don't think it was a stretch to like Noble Bird better off his last race. Only Lea and Hopportunity had run well in higher quality races recently.

I thought the questions for handicappers were whether Hopportunity would be ready for his "A" race off the layoff given it was a last minute decision to run and whether Lea would do his best off the long trip to Dubai.

How you answered those questions were critical.

After the fact, I would say Hopportunity ran well, but not his best. He can probably do better. Lea ran quite well. So I'd say Noble Bird won because he's a lightly raced horse who is still getting better rapidly and he got a pretty good trip in the Foster.

(I did not bet the race. I like Lea best, but not at the price).

[Valuist]

Jcapper money. He looked pretty good in Jcapper. My UDM's loved the horse

I picked him in another thread

Nice job, but you couldn't have been happy with that price.

[JustRalph]

Nice job, but you couldn't have been happy with that price.

I'm in Houston Texas.....it's all fun and games unless I want to drive an hour to the track.