Lesson Learned??

[Uncle Shim]

I just recently realized how important record keeping is, after stumbling across the "Detailed account history report" on my wagering account. Even though this is my first post, I've been reading on this site regularly for years. Most here are adamant about record keeping, but I never thought it mattered much with me because my chances to play are so limited and my bankroll on the small side.

Below are my records (Win only) for the past year (19 days of play). The sample is small, but the difference in performance among the bet sizes is striking even in a small sample. It also is quite clear that I need to avoid the temptation of staying on into the evening and playing the small tracks.

I'm just wondering if anyone else has noticed that their small bets (action bets) are poisoning the wells of profit? I lost just under $800 last year, which is okay with me because Horse Racing is my Golf, but it seems that I could have been profitable quite easily with just a shred of discipline. My low confidence bets have been a horrible proposition... I hope I can learn from this!



Major Tracks
-------------
$20+ (36 bets @ 38.89%) ROI= +0.62
$10-$19 (49 bets @ 14.29) ROI= -0.15
$5-$9 (51 bets @ 13.73) ROI= -0.38
<$5 (90 bets @ 7.78%) ROI= -0.63
All (226 bets @ 15.49%) ROI= +0.09


Non-CDI Major Tracks
---------------------
$20+ (28 bets @ 50%) ROI= +1.12
$10-$19 (44 bets @ 15.91%) ROI= -0.06
$5-$9 (37 bets @ 16.22%) ROI= -0.30
<$5 (74 bets @ 9.46%) ROI= -0.54
All (183 bets @ 18.58%) ROI= +0.34


NYRA Major Tracks
------------------
$20+ (7 bets @ 85.71%) ROI= +2.24
$10-$19 (16 bets @ 18.75) ROI= +0.49
$5-$9 (9 bets @ 11.11%) ROI= -0.47
<$5 (25 bets @ 8.00%) ROI= -0.47
All (57 bets @21.05%) ROI= +0.82


Minor Tracks
-------------
$20+ (24 bets @ 8.33%) ROI= -0.84
$10-$19 (17 bets 23.53%) ROI= +0.11
$5-$9 (25 bets @ 12.00%) ROI= -0.48
<$5 (23 bets @ 4.35%) ROI= -0.71
All (89 bets @ 11.24%) ROI= -0.63


All Tracks (including a few Harness bets)
-----------------------------------------
$20+ (63 bets @ 25.40%) ROI= -0.12
$10-$19 (71 bets @ 16.9%) ROI= +0.08
$5-$9 (88 bets @ 14.77%) ROI= -0.39
<$5 (138 bets @7.97%) ROI= -0.48
All (360 bets @ 14.44%) ROI= -0.15

[DJofSD]

Welcome and good job! Kill those actions bets. If you can't sit in the book or in front of the monitor w/o making those spur of the moment wagers, then learn to bet in advance and then leave or log off.

Keeping records provides feedback. And you can't get better w/o feedback.

Just remember the management maxim: you can not change what you don't measure.

[Uncle Shim]

Thanks and I will remember that maxim going forward!

A couple of years ago an old timer came up to me at the track and struck up conversation. The one thing he said that stuck with me is "The first thing you've got to learn in this game is how to sit down... The walkers and pacers go home early"

Not being a regular player, I try to stuff in as much action as possible into a day of play. I have my statistical proof now, that I still haven't learned how to sit down.

[whodoyoulike]

Thanks and I will remember that maxim going forward!

A couple of years ago an old timer came up to me at the track and struck up conversation ...

Did he start off by asking "who do you like"?

And, what do you mean by the "old timer" remark?

You young whippersnappers are all alike.

[thaskalos]

Thanks and I will remember that maxim going forward!

A couple of years ago an old timer came up to me at the track and struck up conversation. The one thing he said that stuck with me is "The first thing you've got to learn in this game is how to sit down... The walkers and pacers go home early"

Not being a regular player, I try to stuff in as much action as possible into a day of play. I have my statistical proof now, that I still haven't learned how to sit down.

You'll be surprised at how many mistakes you'll continue to make...even AFTER you have conclusive proof of your wrongdoing. Knowing what to do is one thing...but actually DOING it is something else altogether. :)

[Uncle Shim]

No offense to anyone with the "old timer" remark. I'm 48 myself, so I'm not so young either. I just meant that he knew his way around a racetrack and had for a lot longer than me. I've always hit it off better with those much older than myself, so I certainly didn't mean it as derogatory.

As for repeating the same mistakes even though you know better, I'm a seasoned pro in that regard. The hardest thing to overcome for me is the inexplicable urge to come home broke after a nice winner or two. The first step to correcting the issue may be seeing that I'm statistically a pretty horrible handicapper on my action bets.

[raybo]

Looks to me like you need to analyze why you are betting those differing amounts in the first place. If your "$20+" are being bet that high because you think they have a better chance of winning, in your own mind without regard to what the public thinks, then that is a good thing, at least you are focusing on one of the 2 factors involved in making a net profit. It looks like you are also betting some horses that are not favored by the public, which is another good thing (the other half of the profit equation)

So, what tells you to bet more, and what tells you to bet less? If you can't answer that question then your success at the higher bet level will probably soon plummet.

[ILovetheInner]

You'll be surprised at how many mistakes you'll continue to make...even AFTER you have conclusive proof of your wrongdoing. Knowing what to do is one thing...but actually DOING it is something else altogether. :)

That is so true. Pathetically so, in my corner at least :lol:

[Robert Fischer]

Sample Size is quite small. That is going to limit the usefulness of this info, but it is good that you are keeping records, just the same.

I think that Raybo starts some very interesting philosophical thoughts/questions regarding the reasoning behind your various bet amounts. Those questions could lead to new ideas, and decisions about how they relate to performance.

At any rate, keep improving and continue to have fun.

[Some_One]

Sample Size is quite small. That is going to limit the usefulness of this info, but it is good that you are keeping records, just the same.

I think that Raybo starts some very interesting philosophical thoughts/questions regarding the reasoning behind your various bet amounts. Those questions could lead to new ideas, and decisions about how they relate to performance.

At any rate, keep improving and continue to have fun.

Agreed, it goes to one of the things I preach on here about having a systematic approach. You and your brain will be your worst enemy in this game, defeat them with good process.

[Dave Schwartz]

Uncle,

That is exactly what you want: for your larger bets... the ones you presumably thought were "better bets" ... to be most profitable.

So, increase the $20 bets to $40, and make all the losing propositions $2 or pass them altogether and you are on the threshold of stardom.

:ThmbUp:


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[pondman]

I'd assume you have a method for the larger bets that is profitable. And the rest is just out of boredom. You'll probably find that if you cut your playable races in half that your wallet begins to swell.

[Robert Goren]

Most old timers are full of shit which they will gladly pass on to you if you are willing to listen. But some aren't. If they are saying something different from what have heard before, you should check it out. In this game, you must be open to new or at least new-to-you ideas. It does not hurt to listen, if you don't act before you check it out. Almost every idea, including Beyer's method of making speed ratings, I had heard at the track years before the book on it came out. Maybe not exactly the same, but every close. The amazing thing about horse players is that they are willing to share their ideas even if they are extremely profitable. That being said most of the ideas that can be use on a daily basis come from fairly young people. The useful idea that comes from an old timer is usually only usable a few times a month if that. But that does not mean they are not extremely profitable when they do occur.

[JohnGalt1]

One of the best pieces of advice I've heard is "if a horse doesn't quite qualify for a full bet don't make a smaller bet. Either bet the full amount or pass the race."

[tanner12oz]

You'll be surprised at how many mistakes you'll continue to make...even AFTER you have conclusive proof of your wrongdoing. Knowing what to do is one thing...but actually DOING it is something else altogether. :)

problem is one mistake can cripple you. I'm disciplined 99% of the time and that 1% meltdown can mean a winning or losing year

[thaskalos]

problem is one mistake can cripple you. I'm disciplined 99% of the time and that 1% meltdown can mean a winning or losing year

The game is enormously difficult to beat on a regular basis...and I don't believe those who claim to be receiving full-time results for a part-time effort. I have to be totally free of all distraction, and 100% focused on the task at hand, while playing my A-game ALL THE TIME...otherwise, all is lost.

This can't be just a "hobby", if profit is the main motivation. IMO...the game has to be practiced with the same sort of devotion that the devout give to religion.

[whodoyoulike]

Most old timers are full of shit which they will gladly pass on to you if you are willing to listen. But some aren't...

Well, I did notice I was constipated the last week or so but, it did pass. Maybe someone was listening.

[Robert Fischer]

problem is one mistake can cripple you. I'm disciplined 99% of the time and that 1% meltdown can mean a winning or losing year

I'm trying to learn about the psychology behind these meltdowns (they also affect me), so that I can define them better, and also come up with some prevention/avoidance/etc... techniques.

Just kind of reading geeky stuff late at night tonight, I am healing from my heart surgery and some ideas are working better than others.

Here is some of what I have so far - feel free to add on:

*chasing losses meltdown = in a temper tantrum, over-betting your bankroll(or even going all-in) in order to instantly make up a significant losing run.


Does that seem like it's at least talking about the right type of mistake? Thanks

[Uncle Shim]

I'd assume you have a method for the larger bets that is profitable. And the rest is just out of boredom. You'll probably find that if you cut your playable races in half that your wallet begins to swell.

Truthfully, the only thing that I do that is through method is bet sizing. I realized, through researching the Kelly Criterion, that most of my handicapping life I've severely over bet my bankroll. I'm not an "according to Hoyle" Kelly better, but I did find it helpful to make a table to show me what my edge needed to be to bet 2.5%, 5% and 10% of my bankroll according to full Kelly. When I actually bet though I only bet 2/5 the Kelly amount.

So my bets fall into 3 categories: 1%, 2% or 4% of bankroll depending on my imagined edge. What I see for the year of betting is that I find lots of bets where I imagine I have enough edge for a 1% bet and those have been disastrous. There have been fewer 2% bets and those results show some promise. My 4% bets have been outstanding, but I'm lucky to find more than 2 or 3 on a racing day... which isn't a lot of fun for someone who doesn't get to play very often.

One thing that I think has messed me up a little is that I've never actually set aside a bankroll. I just load up $100-$150 and size my bets for a $500 bankroll that isn't really there. My rationalization is that I wouldn't want to lose more than 20% of my bankroll on a single day anyway and it's never an issue to reload the next time I get to play anyway.

That may seem well and good as a rationalization, but if with a few losers and get down to $50 my decision making suffers because I'm mentally short stacked. So, I've decided to REALLY put up the $500 and give it a test run for real this summer.

I currently find myself in a position to play every weekend for a couple of months. I'm going to discard the 1% portion of my table and kill off the Minor Tracks and the CDI tracks. I think the hiked takeout at CDI has also had a mental effect in that I feel like I'm betting into a bad situation even though it shows a minimal effect on my tables.

At any rate, I appreciate the feedback from everyone and I'll use pace advantage as an outlet for my experiment. If nothing else maybe being public with my efforts may reinforce my willpower against betting on the small tracks and 1% plays.

[Robert Fischer]

I'm trying to learn about the psychology behind these meltdowns (they also affect me), so that I can define them better, and also come up with some prevention/avoidance/etc... techniques.

Just kind of reading geeky stuff late at night tonight, I am healing from my heart surgery and some ideas are working better than others.

Here is some of what I have so far - feel free to add on:

*chasing losses meltdown = in a temper tantrum, over-betting your bankroll(or even going all-in) in order to instantly make up a significant losing run.


Does that seem like it's at least talking about the right type of mistake? Thanks

going to bed, here is what I brainstormed:

(DSRS) Deprival Super-Reaction Syndrome - seeing your part of your bankroll lose(perhaps after some success) and then over-reacting to that loss.

Triggers? - What is going to set-off or trigger this type of reaction in you? Can you recognize it in advance? How about stopping/taking a break at that point?
Deep Breathing, etc...

[Uncle Shim]

I'm trying to learn about the psychology behind these meltdowns (they also affect me), so that I can define them better, and also come up with some prevention/avoidance/etc... techniques.

Just kind of reading geeky stuff late at night tonight, I am healing from my heart surgery and some ideas are working better than others.

Here is some of what I have so far - feel free to add on:

*chasing losses meltdown = in a temper tantrum, over-betting your bankroll(or even going all-in) in order to instantly make up a significant losing run.


Does that seem like it's at least talking about the right type of mistake? Thanks

I pretty much overcame the chasing all-in type of errors once I realized that even winning handicapping won't overcome over betting, My Kelly table keeps that kind of thing in perspective. My issue is that I developed a totally different type of chasing method. I instead find an imagined edge and make a lot more small bets at longer odds. Still chasing and maybe even worse than going all in on one that you really like.

I intend to throw out the small (action type) bets, but that may open the door to forcing play on the larger bets?? So the step that I think will lead to profits may actually destroy the only good part of my game. I think I'm ready... but I'm probably just opening up a different bag of worms.. lol

[ReplayRandall]

Triggers? - What is going to set-off or trigger this type of reaction in you? Can you recognize it in advance? How about stopping/taking a break at that point?
Deep Breathing, etc...

A trigger that happens to many bettors, is when they've been patiently waiting for their major play, which is a M/L 10-1 that they'd be satisfied getting 7-1 on, and the race finally arrives and the horse opens at 5-2. Now what?? This is a trigger moment that leads to poor bet alternative decisions, and might end up putting the player on full tilt. If I see a my major play pounded at 5-2, I'm done and I call it a day. I chalk it up to MY line being way off and write down my misjudged aborted play in my records.....

[Uncle Shim]

Btw, If anyone is interested, I'm attaching my kelly criterion table. I think it can be helpful even if you don't like the kelly criterion for horse racing.

For example: lets say I've got $100 in my pocket and I'm about to bet $10 to Win on a 7-2 shot. I look at my kelly table and it tells me that what I'm saying with this bet is that the 7-2 horse has a 42.5% chance of winning. After consulting the table, I may decide that the $2 bet (27.5%) is the right way to go.

The table as it is now represents 2/5ths kelly and not full kelly. I may even make it 1/5th kelly, which would make the bet amounts 1%, 2%, 3% etc...

Anyway, hopefully the attachment works because I have no idea how to make the post where everything stays lined up.

[tanner12oz]

I'm trying to learn about the psychology behind these meltdowns (they also affect me), so that I can define them better, and also come up with some prevention/avoidance/etc... techniques.

Just kind of reading geeky stuff late at night tonight, I am healing from my heart surgery and some ideas are working better than others.

Here is some of what I have so far - feel free to add on:

*chasing losses meltdown = in a temper tantrum, over-betting your bankroll(or even going all-in) in order to instantly make up a significant losing run.


Does that seem like it's at least talking about the right type of mistake? Thanks

chasing "easy money" is another bad one.

[pondman]

Btw, If anyone is interested, I'm attaching my kelly criterion table. I think it can be helpful even if you don't like the kelly criterion for horse racing.

For example: lets say I've got $100 in my pocket and I'm about to bet $10 to Win on a 7-2 shot. I look at my kelly table and it tells me that what I'm saying with this bet is that the 7-2 horse has a 42.5% chance of winning. After consulting the table, I may decide that the $2 bet (27.5%) is the right way to go.

.

One of the things I'm learning when going from 1 or 2 spot plays, every few days, to playing large groups of races, such as looking for bets in all Dirt route races in the US, is the fact that I need enough of a bank, and bet these horses at 5 am. I have to get all my bets in prior to the day. And then not follow any of the races. It's difficult for a human to lose 3 races, and then take a 10-1 shot. And that's exactly what you need to be able to do. You really can't be human, or really feel anything, because you begin to doubt. And then once I've done all of this in the morning, I'll catch a screen shot of the track and it's pouring buckets, and I know my #s won't hold up in the slop, so I desperately try and deal with canceling the bets. I'm convince that a human can no longer process value in this game. You've got to find the right trend, just like it's a market, and throw a unit into the race, and hope you get a layover. You also have to accept that you won't get the prices you did 15 years ago. I had to completely rethink taking prices less the 5-1. I've really try to stay away from races that continually have low prices, such as sprints at FL, and move towards longer races.

[traynor]

Btw, If anyone is interested, I'm attaching my kelly criterion table. I think it can be helpful even if you don't like the kelly criterion for horse racing.

For example: lets say I've got $100 in my pocket and I'm about to bet $10 to Win on a 7-2 shot. I look at my kelly table and it tells me that what I'm saying with this bet is that the 7-2 horse has a 42.5% chance of winning. After consulting the table, I may decide that the $2 bet (27.5%) is the right way to go.

The table as it is now represents 2/5ths kelly and not full kelly. I may even make it 1/5th kelly, which would make the bet amounts 1%, 2%, 3% etc...

Anyway, hopefully the attachment works because I have no idea how to make the post where everything stays lined up.

An interesting idea, contingent on a relatively accurate assesment of the probability of this particular horse winning this particular race, against the particular group of other entries in this particular race. I think most are still working on that. Such probabilities can be calculated (with varying degrees of accuracy) fairly easily for a single entry. The calculation for a single entry in combination with the probabilities of all the other entries is a bit more rigorous.

To quote Igor Kusyshyn, "When I lose, I console myself with the thought that I did it scientifically."

[DeltaLover]

Btw, If anyone is interested, I'm attaching my kelly criterion table. I think it can be helpful even if you don't like the kelly criterion for horse racing.

For example: lets say I've got $100 in my pocket and I'm about to bet $10 to Win on a 7-2 shot. I look at my kelly table and it tells me that what I'm saying with this bet is that the 7-2 horse has a 42.5% chance of winning. After consulting the table, I may decide that the $2 bet (27.5%) is the right way to go.

The table as it is now represents 2/5ths kelly and not full kelly. I may even make it 1/5th kelly, which would make the bet amounts 1%, 2%, 3% etc...

Anyway, hopefully the attachment works because I have no idea how to make the post where everything stays lined up.

What you describe here (betting a fraction of what is proposed by KC) completely defeats its purpose which is to assure the fastest possible growth of your BR while avoiding the possibility of getting broke, KC is not applicable to horse racing, for the following reasons:

(1) You never know your probability (at least with the required precision)
(2) You never know the price you are getting from the pool
(3) Your bet sizing is limited by the pool (as your BR grows you can no longer bet the necessary amounts without destroying your price)

[Hoofless_Wonder]

What you describe here (betting a fraction of what is proposed by KC) completely defeats its purpose which is to assure the fastest possible growth of your BR while avoiding the possibility of getting broke, KC is not applicable to horse racing, for the following reasons:

(1) You never know your probability (at least with the required precision)
(2) You never know the price you are getting from the pool
(3) Your bet sizing is limited by the pool (as your BR grows you can no longer bet the necessary amounts without destroying your price)

I wouldn't argue with you "technically", Delta. But the chart does provide some reasonable limits, and of course a higher wager based on higher odds. A couple of concepts the average horseplayer struggles with.....

[Uncle Shim]

What you describe here (betting a fraction of what is proposed by KC) completely defeats its purpose which is to assure the fastest possible growth of your BR while avoiding the possibility of getting broke, KC is not applicable to horse racing, for the following reasons:

(1) You never know your probability (at least with the required precision)
(2) You never know the price you are getting from the pool
(3) Your bet sizing is limited by the pool (as your BR grows you can no longer bet the necessary amounts without destroying your price)


First of all, keep in mind that my main use of the Kelly Criterion is to help me express my opinion with a properly sized bet. Before discovering Kelly, I was all over the place and mostly over betting my opinion.

Secondly, lets assume that I like a horse that I think has a 20% chance of winning and he's on the Tote at 6-1. Full Kelly says to bet 6.67% of bankroll to maximize growth. When I make my 2/5 fractional Kelly bet, what I'm actually doing is betting FULL Kelly on 16.6% opinion. By doing this I'm killing a few birds with one stone.

#1 I'm taking into consideration the fact that we tend to overestimate our opinions. All I did was downgrade my opinion from 20% to 16.6%

#2 I can only guess as to whether or not that 6-1 on the tote will rise or fall. If the odds rise I've erred on the side of caution.

#3 I've taken precaution against over betting the bankroll if the off odds drop a little. This is big since over betting the bankroll is death in the long run.

I'm actually thinking that 1/5 Kelly is the way to go. I think I read that Blackjack teams use 1/3 or 1/4 Kelly and I don't think that I should be pretending that I have a better advantage than they do. I haven't yet heard of any handicappers being banned from the pari mutual windows.

At 1/5 Kelly that 20% horse at 6-1 odds, becomes a Full Kelly 15.75% horse at 6-1 odds.

I hope this makes sense. Fractional Kelly is nothing more than leaving wiggle room on strike rate and odds changes. In fact fractional Kelly is only an illusion, since your really betting Full Kelly at a lower estimated strike rate.