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mlyles1
06-09-2015, 10:51 AM
http://deadspin.com/this-is-what-it-would-look-like-if-american-pharoah-rac-1709988755?utm_campaign=socialflow_deadspin_facebo ok&utm_source=deadspin_facebook&utm_medium=socialflow

tucker6
06-09-2015, 11:06 AM
Love the very first comment. Sums up the entire link perfectly.

RacingFan1992
06-09-2015, 11:11 AM
When I first saw the title, I thought "My God, let the fire storm begin" :lol:

Augenj
06-09-2015, 11:29 AM
Very interesting to watch the poles flash by, first with Secretariat and then AP. I don't think Secretariat would have set those fast early fractions without Sham challenging him. In another year without Secretariat, Sham probably would have been a Triple Crown winner. All in all, I think Secretariat is incomparable. AP is "just" a great horse.

Ocala Mike
06-09-2015, 11:47 AM
Please, please, please stop the insanity! Secretariat's Belmont stands alone for me as the single greatest sports event I ever personally witnessed, and I doubt that I'll live long enough to see another more charismatic horse or one that did more to put our sport in the national spotlight.

http://content.time.com/time/covers/0,16641,19730611,00.html

Augenj
06-09-2015, 12:05 PM
Please, please, please stop the insanity! Secretariat's Belmont stands alone for me as the single greatest sports event I ever personally witnessed, and I doubt that I'll live long enough to see another more charismatic horse or one that did more to put our sport in the national spotlight.

http://content.time.com/time/covers/0,16641,19730611,00.html
"All in all, I think Secretariat is incomparable."
Incomparable means nobody can compare with him just in case you missed my meaning. ;)

Stillriledup
06-09-2015, 01:46 PM
Secretariat is an untouchable which means people shouldnt be even THINKING of comparing him to others much less writing articles about it. You cant have it both ways, if secretariat stands alone in his own pantheon of greatness, we shouldnt even be putting him in the same breath as anyone. Why secretariat? Why not compare him to the last TC winner, why go "there"?

If John Wall scores 40 points in an nba game are we going to start seeing articles comparing him to michael jordan?

What are we doing here?

dilanesp
06-09-2015, 02:39 PM
Very interesting to watch the poles flash by, first with Secretariat and then AP. I don't think Secretariat would have set those fast early fractions without Sham challenging him. In another year without Secretariat, Sham probably would have been a Triple Crown winner. All in all, I think Secretariat is incomparable. AP is "just" a great horse.

It's romantic to think that Secretariat "ruined" Sham in the Belmont, but Sham never ran again after the race, which suggests that Sham had an injury. So there's no reason to think that Sham wins a TC without Secretariat.

But Alydar, Arts and Letters, Majestic Prince, Sunday Silence, Smarty Jones, Easy Goer, Real Quiet, and Victory Gallop all win TC's but for one horse.

letswastemoney
06-09-2015, 02:51 PM
I compared American Pharoah and Secretariat. https://www.ladyandthetrack.com/news/12916/comparing-american-pharoah-to-secretariat.html

I have no idea why it's taboo to compare them. We have no idea how American Pharoah would have handled faster fractions. Secretariat ran a faster final time because the initial fractions were fast, but no one can say American Pharoah would not have done the same.

And I don't even like American Pharoah as a fan.

cj
06-09-2015, 02:51 PM
I think it is possible American Pharoah is as good as Secretariat. To this point, he has been at least close in my opinion.

thaskalos
06-09-2015, 02:59 PM
I think it is possible American Pharoah is as good as Secretariat. To this point, he has been at least close in my opinion.

Do you suppose that American Pharoah could even SURPASS Secretariat, in the races to come?

Kash$
06-09-2015, 03:07 PM
I think it is possible American Pharoah is as good as Secretariat. To this point, he has been at least close in my opinion.

Oh boy you opened a can..

Augenj
06-09-2015, 03:08 PM
It's romantic to think that Secretariat "ruined" Sham in the Belmont, but Sham never ran again after the race, which suggests that Sham had an injury. So there's no reason to think that Sham wins a TC without Secretariat.

But Alydar, Arts and Letters, Majestic Prince, Sunday Silence, Smarty Jones, Easy Goer, Real Quiet, and Victory Gallop all win TC's but for one horse.
Sham did have an injury, a hairline fracture, before he was to meet Secretariat at Saratoga. The difference between Sham and the others you mentioned is that they didn't finish 2nd to a legend or even raced against one. Sham's oversized heart at his autopsy indicates that 1 1/2 miles at Belmont would have been a cakewalk except he was run into the ground by Secretariat with those fractions and whose heart was even bigger than Sham's at his autopsy.

Cratos
06-09-2015, 03:44 PM
When I first saw the title, I thought "My God, let the fire storm begin" :lol:
To compare American Pharoah to Secretariat is an individual prerogative, but it is laughable and this is not a personal opinion, but an opinion based on historical facts.

I didn’t come to truly appreciate Secretariat achievements until he won the Belmont Stakes because I was a die-hard Dr. Fager fan (still is) and I bought into the prevalent rumor at the time “that he (Secretariat was just another Bold Ruler off-spring who couldn’t get the distance)”; and that rumor proved to be one of the most fallacious rumors ever circulated on the NYRA circuit during my tenure of attending races on the NYRA circuit.

Secretariat is beyond comparison in my lifetime and maybe Man O’ War or Phar Lap was better, but they ran before my time.

However the two horses during my lifetime that I would put in the company with Secretariat would be Dr. Fager and Seattle Slew, but not very close to him.

American Pharoah proved to me that at this stage of his career he is the best 3yo of his generation, but we shouldn’t forget Bayern's late achievements last year and the achievements of Shared Belief; they both showed signs of being “something very special” and today Bayern have gone backwards while Shared Belief is shelved with injury.

Furthermore, American Pharoah have yet to run on turf and against older horses as Secretariat did against the likes of Cougar II and his stable mate, Riva Ridge.

cj
06-09-2015, 03:59 PM
Do you suppose that American Pharoah could even SURPASS Secretariat, in the races to come?

I don't know, because I didn't measure speed back then. I do know that tracks have changed enough that I don't think comparing raw times means much. I don't compare raw times from Friday to Saturday, why would I compare times from 1973 to 2015?

Secretariat lost a few times, though he also tackled older horses and also turf twice. Would going undefeated while dominating the Haskell, Travers, Jockey Club Gold Cup and BC Classic surpass him? In my mind, probably. But I would never say one was undeniably better than the other if that happened.

I think a lot of people get overly nostalgic when these discussions come up from time to time. I do it myself sometimes, but I try not to do so. All of Secratariat's losses get excuses now. American Pharoah's races are being taken apart with a fine tooth comb.

Kash$
06-09-2015, 04:01 PM
To compare American Pharoah to Secretariat is an individual prerogative, but it is laughable and this is not a personal opinion, but an opinion based on historical facts.

I didn’t come to truly appreciate Secretariat achievements until he won the Belmont Stakes because I was a die-hard Dr. Fager fan (still is) and I bought into the prevalent rumor at the time “that he (Secretariat was just another Bold Ruler off-spring who couldn’t get the distance)”; and that rumor proved to be one of the most fallacious rumors ever circulated on the NYRA circuit during my tenure of attending races on the NYRA circuit.

Secretariat is beyond comparison in my lifetime and maybe Man O’ War or Phar Lap was better, but they ran before my time.

However the two horses during my lifetime that I would put in the company with Secretariat would be Dr. Fager and Seattle Slew, but not very close to him.

American Pharoah proved to me that at this stage of his career he is the best 3yo of his generation, but we shouldn’t forget Bayern's late achievements last year and the achievements of Shared Belief; they both showed signs of being “something very special” and today Bayern have gone backwards while Shared Belief is shelved with injury.

Furthermore, American Pharoah have yet to run on turf and against older horses as Secretariat did against the likes of Cougar II and his stable mate, Riva Ridge.

Imo Slew isn't on the same planet at the Bid..

barn32
06-09-2015, 04:11 PM
I'm very curious about the size of American Pharoah's heart. (http://horsesonly.com/crossroads/xfactor/heart-1.htm)

"Research indicates that the female X chromosome is responsible for the large hearts found in outstanding racehorses."

"Today, the normal weight of a horse’s heart is 8.5 pounds. Even though Secretariat’s heart was not weighed at autopsy, Dr. Thomas Swerczek, head pathologist at the University of Kentucky, estimated it at 22 pounds after finding the second-largest heart in Sham (Secretariat’s Triple Crown rival) and weighing it at 18 pounds."

"Recalling the moment Secretariat’s heart was uncovered, Swerczek said, "We just stood there in stunned silence. We couldn’t believe it. The heart was perfect. There were no problems with it. It was just this huge engine."

Bullet Plane
06-09-2015, 04:14 PM
I have seen the old film of Secretariat, but I didn't handicap horses back then.

I mean, that is going back forty years...

You really have to be an old-timer to have had a good size bet on that horse.

The raw times don't mean much, I guess.

Beyer is saying the track AP ran on was about what two seconds slow?

Who knows how slow the track Secretariat ran on was?

I'd have to see the PP's of all the horses on the whole card that Secretariat ran on to make some kind of determination... and then the results charts

Not even then sure, if I would be able to make heads or tail of it... I mean such different race eras.

I try to keep my comparisons to say a 20 year gap.

I started serious handicapping in 1995...

The best horses I have witnessed are: Cigar, Rachel Alexander, and AP.

On the wall in my man-cave are pictures of my favorite horses.

Most are horses that I hit big bets on.

Never bet on Cigar, did bet against him, but he is on my wall.

Same with Rachel Alexander....

Guess I'm going to have to get an 8 x 10 of AP...

DeltaLover
06-09-2015, 04:15 PM
I do not particularly enjoy this kind of comparisons. If I had to make such a comparison, I would answer that at this point I do not have enough information to make up my mind. I would like to see how AP is going to mature and how the rest of his 3yo campaign is going to evolve.

If AP goes ahead sweeping the Haskell, Travers, JC and the Breeders Cup Classic, he should certainly place himself in the same league as the other greatest horses of the history like Secretariat, Man O War, Citation, Seattle Slew, Dr Fager and Kelso.

VeryOldMan
06-09-2015, 04:16 PM
Imo Slew isn't on the same planet at the Bid..

C'mon - Slew beat Affirmed in their 1978 Marlboro showdown; Affirmed went on to beat Bid in their 1979 JCGC showdown. To say Slew wasn't on the same planet as Bid is ridiculous. Please tell me you were being sarcastic.

DeltaLover
06-09-2015, 04:17 PM
The best horses I have witnessed are: Cigar, Rachel Alexander, and AP.


Neither Cigar nor RA are in the same league as AP... Both of them were top level thoroughbreds but not in the class of AP...

Inner Dirt
06-09-2015, 04:17 PM
I think it is possible American Pharoah is as good as Secretariat. To this point, he has been at least close in my opinion.

Your opinion isn't worth spit to anyone who believes in Beyer speed figures and I understand you have to rip on Beyers because you sell your own.

How someone with your knowledge of horse racing can say AP is close to Secretariat makes no sense. Let me see, Secretariat went head and head through 6 furlongs in 1:09 4/5, AP gets 6 furlongs in 1:13 2/5 never having to look another horse in the eye and Secretariat stopped the timer more than 2 seconds faster. No one other than you could say those performances are even close. If you believe in Beyers AP destroyed a weak crop, hopefully they will run AP against older horses and this debate about his greatness can be settled.

thaskalos
06-09-2015, 04:20 PM
I don't know, because I didn't measure speed back then. I do know that tracks have changed enough that I don't think comparing raw times means much. I don't compare raw times from Friday to Saturday, why would I compare times from 1973 to 2015?

Secretariat lost a few times, though he also tackled older horses and also turf twice. Would going undefeated while dominating the Haskell, Travers, Jockey Club Gold Cup and BC Classic surpass him? In my mind, probably. But I would never say one was undeniably better than the other if that happened.

I think a lot of people get overly nostalgic when these discussions come up from time to time. I do it myself sometimes, but I try not to do so. All of Secratariat's losses get excuses now. American Pharoah's races are being taken apart with a fine tooth comb.
I can't agree with you here, CJ. I can't say that just dominating your age group, or even the older horses of your particular time period, qualifies you to be mentioned among the All-Time Greats of the game. This is an old game, with a great history...and to be considered an "All-Time Great", you must also present the added proof that only the teletimer can provide. This is a "racing game" after all, and, while speed figures may not be the and-all...they cannot be ignored altogether either.

Calling a horse the best of his day does not mean that he is also the best of all time.

thaskalos
06-09-2015, 04:22 PM
I do not particularly enjoy this kind of comparisons. If I had to make such a comparison, I would answer that at this point I do not have enough information to make up my mind. I would like to see how AP is going to mature and how the rest of his 3yo campaign is going to evolve.

If AP goes ahead sweeping the Haskell, Travers, JC and the Breeders Cup Classic, he should certainly place himself in the same league as the other greatest horses of the history like Secretariat, Man O War, Citation, Seattle Slew, Dr Fager and Kelso.

Even if he registers a string of 100 Beyers? A 100 Beyer allows you to rub shoulders with Secretariat? Come on...

DeltaLover
06-09-2015, 04:26 PM
Even if he registers a string of 100 Beyers? A 100 Beyer allows you to rub shoulders with Secretariat? Come on...

I guess this is humour :) :)

cj
06-09-2015, 04:28 PM
Your opinion isn't worth spit to anyone who believes in Beyer speed figures and I understand you have to rip on Beyers because you sell your own.

How someone with your knowledge of horse racing can say AP is close to Secretariat makes no sense. Let me see, Secretariat went head and head through 6 furlongs in 1:09 4/5, AP gets 6 furlongs in 1:13 2/5 never having to look another horse in the eye and Secretariat stopped the timer more than 2 seconds faster. No one other than you could say those performances are even close. If you believe in Beyers AP destroyed a weak crop, hopefully they will run AP against older horses and this debate about his greatness can be settled.

That simply isn't true. I admire Beyer and I'd be a nobody without his early work. Beyer himself said he gave Secratariat a figure for the Belmont, but the scale was different then and he said it is tough to compare to what he uses now. So how can you use Beyer figures as a measuring tool if he doesn't?

As for raw times, I've said me piece on them. You may as well compare American Pharoah to a race on the moon, about as close as racing on those tracks in the 70s would be.

Both won the Triple Crown rather easily. One had two losses coming in, one had one loss. Both were two year old champions. I don't think there is much doubt that other than the Belmont, where Secretariat's only real competition was eased, that American Pharoah has dominated his competition more thoroughly than Secretariat did.

cj
06-09-2015, 04:31 PM
I can't agree with you here, CJ. I can't say that just dominating your age group, or even the older horses of your particular time period, qualifies you to be mentioned among the All-Time Greats of the game. This is an old game, with a great history...and to be considered an "All-Time Great", you must also present the added proof that only the teletimer can provide. This is a "racing game" after all, and, while speed figures may not be the and-all...they cannot be ignored altogether either.

Calling a horse the best of his day does not mean that he is also the best of all time.

Tracks are too different these days. Nobody is breaking track records in route races. I consider it a huge achievement that he ran as fast as he did in the Belmont. I'd like to see a complete set of charts for Belmont day 1973 and see how fast the other races were. Same goes for the rest of the Triple Crown. It could give either of us a different perspective.

I'm sure there are old timers that still think Johnny U was the greatest QB of all time, LOL.

VeryOldMan
06-09-2015, 04:36 PM
I can't agree with you here, CJ. I can't say that just dominating your age group, or even the older horses of your particular time period, qualifies you to be mentioned among the All-Time Greats of the game. This is an old game, with a great history...and to be considered an "All-Time Great", you must also present the added proof that only the teletimer can provide. This is a "racing game" after all, and, while speed figures may not be the and-all...they cannot be ignored altogether either.

Calling a horse the best of his day does not mean that he is also the best of all time.

Nice post.

And I think you have to add in the body of work of the opponents. As I posted up-thread - Seattle Slew beat Affirmed when they met. Affirmed beat Spectacular Bid when they met. Secretariat's Derby included Forego - who turned out to be one of the greatest handicap horses of all time.

thaskalos
06-09-2015, 04:39 PM
Tracks are too different these days. Nobody is breaking track records in route races. I consider it a huge achievement that he ran as fast as he did in the Belmont. I'd like to see a complete set of charts for Belmont day 1973 and see how fast the other races were. Same goes for the rest of the Triple Crown. It could give either of us a different perspective.

I'm sure there are old timers that still think Johnny U was the greatest QB of all time, LOL.

If you had picked a lesser horse to compare AP with...then my argument would be greatly diminished. But SECRETARIAT?

I accuse you of BLASPHEMY, sir...and if I could, I would confiscate your membership card to the Figure-Handicappers League. :eek:

DeltaLover
06-09-2015, 04:41 PM
Cross era timing comparisons are completely meaningless when it comes to horse racing. What counts is how dominate a specific "great horse" candidate is proven to be over his contemporaries.

cj
06-09-2015, 04:46 PM
If you had picked a lesser horse to compare AP with...then my argument would be greatly diminished. But SECRETARIAT?

I accuse you of BLASPHEMY, sir...and if I could, I would confiscate your membership card to the Figure-Handicappers League. :eek:

Like I said, I don't have any way to make figures for him, and neither did anyone else that published them and still does today. I do know he lost four times, and those losses weren't exactly to a bunch of hall of fame horses.

Don't get me wrong, losing isn't that big a deal. I like when horses are challenged. I respected Zenyatta more in defeat than I ever did when she was beating listed horses in alleged G1s. But like I said, American Pharoah has been every bit as dominant in his wins and he hasn't lost since his initial race.

Maybe I'm just being optimistic. Like I said, it is just opinion. I can see your side as well.

Stillriledup
06-09-2015, 04:49 PM
I don't know, because I didn't measure speed back then. I do know that tracks have changed enough that I don't think comparing raw times means much. I don't compare raw times from Friday to Saturday, why would I compare times from 1973 to 2015?

Secretariat lost a few times, though he also tackled older horses and also turf twice. Would going undefeated while dominating the Haskell, Travers, Jockey Club Gold Cup and BC Classic surpass him? In my mind, probably. But I would never say one was undeniably better than the other if that happened.

I think a lot of people get overly nostalgic when these discussions come up from time to time. I do it myself sometimes, but I try not to do so. All of Secratariat's losses get excuses now. American Pharoah's races are being taken apart with a fine tooth comb.

People forget he was hit 32 times w the whip to win the Derby.

I appreciate you going out on a limb saying AP is close to big red. I admire taking a stand.

thaskalos
06-09-2015, 04:49 PM
Cross era timing comparisons are completely meaningless when it comes to horse racing. What counts is how dominate a specific "great horse" candidate is proven to be over his contemporaries.

I don't buy your assessment. Sometimes...dominating your competition says more about them than it says about you.

DeltaLover
06-09-2015, 04:51 PM
I don't buy your assessment. Sometimes...dominating your competition says more about them than it says about you.

The reality is that you are never able to be sure which way you domination is coming from.. Trying to reach this type of conclusion is an impossible task.. All you can say, is what you can see and nothing else.

cj
06-09-2015, 04:53 PM
People forget he was hit 32 times w the whip to win the Derby.

I appreciate you going out on a limb saying AP is close to big red. I admire taking a stand.


So you think he was losing if he was only hit 22 times? Or 12? I don't.

VeryOldMan
06-09-2015, 04:54 PM
People forget he was hit 32 times w the whip to win the Derby.

I appreciate you going out on a limb saying AP is close to big red. I admire taking a stand.

Who is "he" - Secretariat or AP?

Secretariat setting the track record at CD to hold off Sham or AP to win?

thaskalos
06-09-2015, 04:57 PM
The reality is that you are never able to be sure which way you domination is coming from.. Trying to reach this type of conclusion is an impossible task.. All you can say, is what you can see and nothing else.

The reality is that you cannot call yourself a spectacular horse...if you have never run what can be called a "spectacular race". You can be called "ultra-consistent"...and you can even be called "Great". But you can't be called Spectacular ...which is the only fitting word with which to describe Secretariat.

DeltaLover
06-09-2015, 04:59 PM
The reality is that you cannot call yourself a spectacular horse...if you have never run what can be called a "spectacular race". You can be called "ultra-consistent"...and you can be called "Great". But you can't be called Spectacular ...which is the only fitting word with which to describe Secretariat.


I think I have already clarified, that AP will get in the same league to Secretariat, if he goes ahead winning the BCC, a race that will be qualified as spectacular no matter if won by a nose or by a city block

biggestal99
06-09-2015, 05:00 PM
I think it is possible American Pharoah is as good as Secretariat. To this point, he has been at least close in my opinion.

Well you really can't compare until we see the full career of AP

But up til now.

Ap was what a length better than firing line in the derby

In the preakness, he was tons the best vs tale of verve

And in his best race he crushed frosted in the belmont

Btw secretariat raced times 12 times as a three year old

Doubt we see that many from ap

Sectrariat also raced 9 times as a two year old and unlike ap made it to november

Right now i,d give it to secretariat in a landslide but we havent seen the best of ap yet so the jurys still out.
Allan

thaskalos
06-09-2015, 05:03 PM
I think I have already clarified, that AP will get in the same league to Secretariat, if he goes ahead winning the BCC, a race that will be qualified as spectacular no matter if won by a nose or by a city block

Nonsense. Anyone who has trouble distinguishing a victory by a city block, from a victory by a nose...should take up BOWLING as a hobby. :)

cj
06-09-2015, 05:06 PM
Nonsense. Anyone who has trouble distinguishing a victory by a city block, from a victory by a nose...should take up BOWLING as a hobby. :)

Many believe Personal Ensign was spectacular winning the Distaff by a nose, and the Bellamy Road win in the Wood as bogus. Mine that Bird won by many lengths in the Derby, nobody classified that as spectacular.

Margins often don't tell you a lot about a race.

DeltaLover
06-09-2015, 05:07 PM
Nonsense. Anyone who has trouble distinguishing a victory by a city block, from a victory by a nose...should take up BOWLING as a hobby. :)


Hmm..

What was the margins for Zenyatta, Kelso, John Henry etc when they were becoming racing immortals?

VeryOldMan
06-09-2015, 05:09 PM
I think I have already clarified, that AP will get in the same league to Secretariat, if he goes ahead winning the BCC, a race that will be qualified as spectacular no matter if won by a nose or by a city block

If AP wins the BCC, which didn't exist back in "the day", he becomes the gold standard of the modern day sport. Period. Back in "the day" we saw incredible matchups like Seattle Slew v. Affirmed, etc. Those days are gone alas.

We can argue about where he rates relative to the greats in the board's lifetime like Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Ruffian, Affirmed, Forego, Zenyatta, etc., etc.

I would love to see AP set the new gold standard. Let's see.

thaskalos
06-09-2015, 05:18 PM
Many believe Personal Ensign was spectacular winning the Distaff by a nose, and the Bellamy Road win in the Wood as bogus. Mine that Bird won by many lengths in the Derby, nobody classified that as spectacular.

Margins often don't tell you a lot about a race.

When I said "spectacular"...I meant margins coupled with impressive figures. You know...the type of figures that AP hasn't yet gotten close to... :)

AndyC
06-09-2015, 05:19 PM
The reality is that you cannot call yourself a spectacular horse...if you have never run what can be called a "spectacular race". You can be called "ultra-consistent"...and you can even be called "Great". But you can't be called Spectacular ...which is the only fitting word with which to describe Secretariat.

How does someone excuse losses to much lesser horses and still maintain that a horse is great or spectacular? It seems to me that we are far more critical of today's horses than we were of the "great" ones.

thaskalos
06-09-2015, 05:35 PM
How does someone excuse losses to much lesser horses and still maintain that a horse is great or spectacular? It seems to me that we are far more critical of today's horses than we were of the "great" ones.

Are we looking for undefeated horses here...or for horses who have shown uncommon brilliance when they are sharp? There is a balance that needs to be stricken between "consistency" and "brilliance"...IMO. We shouldn't necessarily assume that the horse who wins the most races is the best horse...especially when comparing horses from different time periods.

How can we say that American Pharoah belongs with the truly elite horses of this game...if he doesn't run even one race that can be categorized as "very fast", from a speed rating perspective? Have we suddenly disregarded speed figures altogether?

Augenj
06-09-2015, 05:40 PM
I'm very curious about the size of American Pharoah's heart. (http://horsesonly.com/crossroads/xfactor/heart-1.htm)

"Research indicates that the female X chromosome is responsible for the large hearts found in outstanding racehorses."

"Today, the normal weight of a horse’s heart is 8.5 pounds. Even though Secretariat’s heart was not weighed at autopsy, Dr. Thomas Swerczek, head pathologist at the University of Kentucky, estimated it at 22 pounds after finding the second-largest heart in Sham (Secretariat’s Triple Crown rival) and weighing it at 18 pounds."

"Recalling the moment Secretariat’s heart was uncovered, Swerczek said, "We just stood there in stunned silence. We couldn’t believe it. The heart was perfect. There were no problems with it. It was just this huge engine."
They ought to have the technology today to "size" a horses heart while still alive. If so, how about a comparison between Secretariat (22 lbs) and AP? That ought to start off a new round of debate about the size of a horse's heart and related performance. Then there's the issue of heart size versus horse weight ratio and so it goes... :D

castaway01
06-09-2015, 05:45 PM
How does someone excuse losses to much lesser horses and still maintain that a horse is great or spectacular? It seems to me that we are far more critical of today's horses than we were of the "great" ones.

Two things:
1) There is almost always going to be a bias towards what we remember from the past as being better than what is current. You hear it about athletes, how the current generation can't measure up to the "greatest generation", movies, you name it. When today's kids are old, they'll say that the world was better when they were kids than it is "now" (whenever now is).

2) Specific to horses, even though Secretariat had some losses, he had many more impressive wins. Horses today run shorter campaigns, so if they have a couple off days, they stand out more. Or, for that matter, if they win 4 of 5 in a year's campaign, it's not as impressive as the horse from 1960 who won 10/12 stakes races. So horses now really have to be spectacular to impress in fewer starts.

VeryOldMan
06-09-2015, 06:21 PM
Are we looking for undefeated horses here...or for horses who have shown uncommon brilliance when they are sharp? There is a balance that needs to be stricken between "consistency" and "brilliance"...IMO. We shouldn't necessarily assume that the horse who wins the most races is the best horse...especially when comparing horses from different time periods.

How can we say that American Pharoah belongs with the truly elite horses of this game...if he doesn't run even one race that can be categorized as "very fast", from a speed rating perspective? Have we suddenly disregarded speed figures altogether?

You're crushing this thread.

And let's assess these horses against the body of work of their opponents. Horses are so lightly raced versus back in "the day". We got to witness Triple Crown winners racing against each other and against a great near-miss (Spectacular Bid) back in the day.

Secretariat set a world record at 1 1/2 mile at the time without being touched by the whip. Went through 1 1/4 at Belmont at what would have been the track record. Anyone dissing Secretariat in this thread needs to re-assess.

Cratos
06-09-2015, 06:35 PM
The advent of speed figures has blurred many horseplayer visions about the quality of the racehorse.

It appears to some that the popular speed figure methodology is all encompassing; it is the measurement which integrates everything and the highest number represents some exalted quality.

Nothing can be further from the truth. I realize that many posters on this Forum subscribe to the usage of speed figures in their handicapping and for them it’s a convenience and I understand that.

However the speed figure methodology is just another “standardized scoring” system like the SATs and the CRS; both of which have never achieved the level of competence expected because of nonhomogeneous data and horseracing is riddled with non-homogeneity in its data.

Take for instance the major provider of horseracing data, Equibase who sells to its distributors the timing of “races” and not of horses. The only time a horse’s speed is captured is in a gate-to-wire performance, but figure-makers will tell their customers that they are always giving them speed.

Give me a break, you don’t have to be a rocket scientist to understand that this is a false paradigm; you cannot determine speed/velocity without distance.

Additionally, to talk about a racetrack surface as being “fast” or “slow” is nonsense; a racetrack surface is static and it is resistant based on friction that changes the rate of motion of the racehorse and if you drive a car, ride a bike, or do any sort of movement you will understand that the rate of motion (pace defined) is determined by the degree of resistance to friction and this is not just theory; it is empirically proven every day.

Also a horse’s motion is retarded environmentally by more than the track’s surface friction. There is friction due to air resistance, friction due to surface wind force, and side force in the turns. This is a complex calculation, but very beneficial when done correctly.

Therefore before we start down the road of comparing any horse (especially over different eras), we should understand that the speed figure methodology is not the correct metric for comparison.

Inner Dirt
06-09-2015, 06:38 PM
Not once have I seen AP make an eye popping move. True I was only 12 when Secretariat won the Belmont, I did see it on TV, but there is a thing called You Tube where you can see Big Red accelerate past horses at any stage in multiple races like they are standing still. AP has yet to make an eye popping move, if there is one put down a link. He did repel challanges in the Belmont going 113:2 for 6F on a track that was blazing fast, just look at the other races 2,3,5 had naked Beyers of 120-135. Common sense says AP's performance was nothing special, you must wonder why anyone would think something different.

Show Me the Wire
06-09-2015, 07:16 PM
Not once have I seen AP make an eye popping move. True I was only 12 when Secretariat won the Belmont, I did see it on TV, but there is a thing called You Tube where you can see Big Red accelerate past horses at any stage in multiple races like they are standing still. AP has yet to make an eye popping move, if there is one put down a link. He did repel challanges in the Belmont going 113:2 for 6F on a track that was blazing fast, just look at the other races 2,3,5 had naked Beyers of 120-135. Common sense says AP's performance was nothing special, you must wonder why anyone would think something different.

Maybe not, however AP covered the last 1/16 in 13 strides, which is impressive.

dilanesp
06-09-2015, 07:32 PM
Sham did have an injury, a hairline fracture, before he was to meet Secretariat at Saratoga. The difference between Sham and the others you mentioned is that they didn't finish 2nd to a legend or even raced against one. Sham's oversized heart at his autopsy indicates that 1 1/2 miles at Belmont would have been a cakewalk except he was run into the ground by Secretariat with those fractions and whose heart was even bigger than Sham's at his autopsy.

There's no proof that Sham had an oversized heart at his autopsy.

Secretariat had an oversized heart, but the x-rays during his life showed that it was a couple of pounds larger than a normal heart. The story told by his forensic pathologist (that he supposedly had a 22 pound heart, but there isn't as much as a single photograph of it and Sham supposedly had the second largest heart in history) is almost certainly completely false.

It's one of the great fish stories in the history of horse racing-- perfectly calibrated to be believed by the gullible.

As for Sham in the Belmont-- if he had been going for the TC rather than Secretariat, there would have been a lot more than 5 horses entered in the race. (And, of course, he ran last and couldn't even beat Private Smiles in the actual race. We don't even know the horse could get 1 1/2 miles.)

dilanesp
06-09-2015, 07:36 PM
Your opinion isn't worth spit to anyone who believes in Beyer speed figures and I understand you have to rip on Beyers because you sell your own.

How someone with your knowledge of horse racing can say AP is close to Secretariat makes no sense. Let me see, Secretariat went head and head through 6 furlongs in 1:09 4/5, AP gets 6 furlongs in 1:13 2/5 never having to look another horse in the eye and Secretariat stopped the timer more than 2 seconds faster. No one other than you could say those performances are even close. If you believe in Beyers AP destroyed a weak crop, hopefully they will run AP against older horses and this debate about his greatness can be settled.

I love Beyer speed figures as a handicapping tool, but they really have next to nothing to say about comparisons between eras.

More generally, the argument that Secretariat is better than AP (which I think is unassailable) is really based on career accomplishments. Secretariat had an incredible 2 year old season, and then after winning the TC (and setting track records in 2 of the 3 races) he went on and did all sorts of great things in the fall of his 3 year old career.

I actually think Secretariat is overrated, but nonetheless, even if we rate him correctly, his accomplishments truly dwarf AP's.

dilanesp
06-09-2015, 07:39 PM
If AP goes ahead sweeping the Haskell, Travers, JC and the Breeders Cup Classic, he should certainly place himself in the same league as the other greatest horses of the history like Secretariat, Man O War, Citation, Seattle Slew, Dr Fager and Kelso.

If he does all that and only that, he will have a less accomplished career than Alysheba and will not be an all-time great by any legitimate measure.

Seriously, the last truly unambiguously great horse was probably Cigar (Zenyatta's an interesting case, though).

Take a look at Cigar's career and all the different things he did, and you might get the idea of what AP would need to do to establish his greatness. And no, he will never be allowed to do it. (But I wish he was allowed to.)

Ruffian1
06-09-2015, 07:44 PM
The advent of speed figures has blurred many horseplayer visions about the quality of the racehorse.

It appears to some that the popular speed figure methodology is all encompassing; it is the measurement which integrates everything and the highest number represents some exalted quality.

Nothing can be further from the truth. I realize that many posters on this Forum subscribe to the usage of speed figures in their handicapping and for them it’s a convenience and I understand that.

However the speed figure methodology is just another “standardized scoring” system like the SATs and the CRS; both of which have never achieved the level of competence expected because of nonhomogeneous data and horseracing is riddled with non-homogeneity in its data.

Take for instance the major provider of horseracing data, Equibase who sells to its distributors the timing of “races” and not of horses. The only time a horse’s speed is captured is in a gate-to-wire performance, but figure-makers will tell their customers that they are always giving them speed.

Give me a break, you don’t have to be a rocket scientist to understand that this is a false paradigm; you cannot determine speed/velocity without distance.

Additionally, to talk about a racetrack surface as being “fast” or “slow” is nonsense; a racetrack surface is static and it is resistant based on friction that changes the rate of motion of the racehorse and if you drive a car, ride a bike, or do any sort of movement you will understand that the rate of motion (pace defined) is determined by the degree of resistance to friction and this is not just theory; it is empirically proven every day.

Also a horse’s motion is retarded environmentally by more than the track’s surface friction. There is friction due to air resistance, friction due to surface wind force, and side force in the turns. This is a complex calculation, but very beneficial when done correctly.

Therefore before we start down the road of comparing any horse (especially over different eras), we should understand that the speed figure methodology is not the correct metric for comparison.


Holy crap ! This is so 100% true . And I cannot begin to tell you how happy I am to see that there are people like you that get this.
When I was a groom back in the early 70's and traveled around the east coast from all the different Md. tracks, to Del. to Monmouth, it was apparent that all tracks were not fast the same way. Pimlico, were it is windy when it's not windy, and was a brick road through the stretch, especially after they build that tunnel next to the 1/8th pole. Monmouth, where the wet wind came off the ocean and the surface was completely different than the other tracks, Laurel, where it was so full of clay that it ruined your pants when you walked over it after a few weeks, Del. , where it was a sand that was grey and totally different than any other surface I had walked and also ruined your pants, and Bowie, which was , in my opinion, the best, safest, and self fixing when it rained or froze track that I ever raced at.
Every one was different. Every one was different on the horses legs both stress wise and outwardly where it was visible for all to see the wear and tear on the bandages, or the friction burns, and therefore different on the ability to navigate or the physical stress involved on running on them, and yes, all different as far as the friction and resistance, yet they were all "fast". I asked countless people when I was a teenager and before I started to train, even after I first started, about this and NOBODY had an answer. That includes trainers, a few of which are in the hall of fame. Henry Clark, Sonny Hine, Bud Delp. Dick Dutrow, Big John Tammaro, and on and on.
It took me a long time to put all this together but I did, however, it was with a trainers mentality in mind, that is, claiming, and my horses ability to run over these surfaces and better understand what was going on from meet to meet with my competitors horses, not numbers for betting. Back then, betting was the last thing on my mind, probably hard to believe for customers but it truly had nothing to do with odds or betting. I was way to busy trying to climb the ranks as a trainer and be smarter than the other ones.
So very glad to see that some customers see this. That's just great! And it is dead on correct.
Well done, Cratos.:ThmbUp:

cj
06-09-2015, 07:47 PM
From Jerry Brown of Thorograph. I don't agree with everything he does, but he is no dummy, far from it:

From Thorograph: "Before my time but undoubtedly track was way faster in '73. 2 1/2 inch cushion vs 4 today, more sand and less clay now. "

cj
06-09-2015, 07:47 PM
When I said "spectacular"...I meant margins coupled with impressive figures. You know...the type of figures that AP hasn't yet gotten close to... :)

Depends what figures you are using.

cj
06-09-2015, 07:48 PM
How does someone excuse losses to much lesser horses and still maintain that a horse is great or spectacular? It seems to me that we are far more critical of today's horses than we were of the "great" ones.

Exactly...he lost five times, one of those via DQ, none to particularly notable horses. No wonder trainers are afraid to run and lose these days.

Valuist
06-09-2015, 07:53 PM
Before we start making comparisons to Secretariat, lets see Pharoah beat an older horse like Shared Belief. Maybe he will; maybe he won't. I know he's no lock against him.

thaskalos
06-09-2015, 07:58 PM
Depends what figures you are using.

IMO...American Pharoah has not yet run a very fast race...either from a speed, or a pace perspective. I respect the opinions of other horseplayers whom I deem knowledgeable, but I don't necessarily always agree with them...because I like to think that I am pretty knowledgeable myself.

AndyC
06-09-2015, 08:00 PM
Two things:
1) There is almost always going to be a bias towards what we remember from the past as being better than what is current. You hear it about athletes, how the current generation can't measure up to the "greatest generation", movies, you name it. When today's kids are old, they'll say that the world was better when they were kids than it is "now" (whenever now is).

2) Specific to horses, even though Secretariat had some losses, he had many more impressive wins. Horses today run shorter campaigns, so if they have a couple off days, they stand out more. Or, for that matter, if they win 4 of 5 in a year's campaign, it's not as impressive as the horse from 1960 who won 10/12 stakes races. So horses now really have to be spectacular to impress in fewer starts.

I agree.

lamboguy
06-09-2015, 08:12 PM
the one big thing i can say about SECRETARIAT is that he beat FOREGO in the Kentucky Derby. that guy turned out to be one tough race horse.

because we live in a different era today, AMERICAN PHAROAH demolished a real good Belmont field, not as fast as SECRETARIAT though.

DeltaLover
06-09-2015, 08:16 PM
If he does all that and only that, he will have a less accomplished career than Alysheba and will not be an all-time great by any legitimate measure.

Seriously, the last truly unambiguously great horse was probably Cigar (Zenyatta's an interesting case, though).

Take a look at Cigar's career and all the different things he did, and you might get the idea of what AP would need to do to establish his greatness. And no, he will never be allowed to do it. (But I wish he was allowed to.)

Last time I have checked the TC winner list I did not see Alysheba, Cigar or Zenyatta in them.. Am I missing something here?

AndyC
06-09-2015, 08:16 PM
Are we looking for undefeated horses here...or for horses who have shown uncommon brilliance when they are sharp? There is a balance that needs to be stricken between "consistency" and "brilliance"...IMO. We shouldn't necessarily assume that the horse who wins the most races is the best horse...especially when comparing horses from different time periods.

How can we say that American Pharoah belongs with the truly elite horses of this game...if he doesn't run even one race that can be categorized as "very fast", from a speed rating perspective? Have we suddenly disregarded speed figures altogether?

How would you rate a horse like Zenyatta? She definitely didn't set the world on fire with her speed figures.

How can you say that AP isn't a truly elite given the accomplishment of the triple crown? Given that today's horses normally run 5-7 per year with ample rest between races, the only horses required to be on a different schedule are the horses that have a chance at a TC.

AndyC
06-09-2015, 08:22 PM
If he does all that and only that, he will have a less accomplished career than Alysheba and will not be an all-time great by any legitimate measure.

Seriously, the last truly unambiguously great horse was probably Cigar (Zenyatta's an interesting case, though).

Take a look at Cigar's career and all the different things he did, and you might get the idea of what AP would need to do to establish his greatness. And no, he will never be allowed to do it. (But I wish he was allowed to.)

Cigar did have a great career. Unfortunately he was only 1 for 11 on the turf, a definite black mark when putting him up there with the elites.

cj
06-09-2015, 08:22 PM
the one big thing i can say about SECRETARIAT is that he beat FOREGO in the Kentucky Derby. that guy turned out to be one tough race horse.

because we live in a different era today, AMERICAN PHAROAH demolished a real good Belmont field, not as fast as SECRETARIAT though.

The Forego he beat in the Derby was hardly the Forego we all came to know. He got very good after being gelded. He didn't win a graded stakes until December that year. He also won an allowance race on the same day Secretariat won the Belmont, 1 1/16 miles in 1:40 4/5 into a headwind on the backstretch. (They noted that in charts back then)

proximity
06-09-2015, 08:26 PM
i'd say secretariat but the quote cj posted from jerry brown is right. the tracks back then were faster with higher clay content.

DESPITE that the par charts on today's slower tracks are tighter with your typical low-mid level claimers running relatively faster. this is probably due to improvements in the breed, better all around training, juice....

(we've talked a lot about this on here before)

so beyerwise, these lower level horses have improved so much that it's tougher for top horses to "break away" and run a raw time that will yield a big number.
horses can only run so fast.

alf1380
06-09-2015, 08:30 PM
This reminds me of a knock down drag out argument I had with a friend of mine.

He maintained that Lawyer Ron was better than Lemon Drop Kid.

His argument? Kid ran crappy times winning all those Graded Stakes and Lawyer Ron holds the track record in the Whitney going 9 furlongs while having an edge in record (24:12-4-4 vs. 24: 10-3-3).

I maintained that Kid had some stiff competition and made more money while actually winning a TC race.

In this case, it was flashy times vs. Accomplishment.

In Big Red's case vs. AP....Big Red has both..for now...Can AP catch Secretariat? Doubtful. In accomplishment, he very well can, if he sweeps the rest of his career, but Secretariat's slew (no pun intended) of track records are no joke. They do matter in this case.

DeltaLover
06-09-2015, 08:33 PM
Cigar did have a great career. Unfortunately he was only 1 for 11 on the turf, a definite black mark when putting him up there with the elites.

Of course he had a great career but this does not mean that he was a great horse, belonging in highest elite of the game.. You can make the same argument for many other horses in this level, like Skip Away, Silver Charm, Spectacular Bid, Curlin just to name a few.. All of them had a great career, but they are ranked significantly lower than Man o War Secretariat, Citation, Slew, Dr or Kelso.. I hope by the end of the year we will add another name to the latter..

DeltaLover
06-09-2015, 08:35 PM
He maintained that Lawyer Ron was better than Lemon Drop Kid.


I do not think that anyone really cares about these two.. Both were very good horses, but nothing exceptional like the names we are discussing in this thread.

alf1380
06-09-2015, 08:38 PM
I do not think that anyone really cares about these two.. Both were very good horses, but nothing exceptional like the names we are discussing in this thread.

I used them as an example.

Kash$
06-09-2015, 08:38 PM
C'mon - Slew beat Affirmed in their 1978 Marlboro showdown; Affirmed went on to beat Bid in their 1979 JCGC showdown. To say Slew wasn't on the same planet as Bid is ridiculous. Please tell me you were being sarcastic.

The bid was a 3 year old when he lost to Affirmed..As a 4 year old Bid had one of the greatest racing seasons ever..East/West carrried top weight tracks records at different tracks..Form 7f to 1 1/4 undefeated and not one of those races was close.Slew couldnt sniff the Bid

VeryOldMan
06-09-2015, 08:38 PM
The Forego he beat in the Derby was hardly the Forego we all came to know. He got very good after being gelded. He didn't win a graded stakes until December that year. He also won an allowance race on the same day Secretariat won the Belmont, 1 1/16 miles in 1:40 4/5 into a headwind on the backstretch. (They noted that in charts back then)

I respect your opinion but also am old enough to have witnessed the horses we're discussing from the 70s - are you really planting a flag that American Pharoah could be greater than Secretariat and the other great horses from that era (Seattle Slew, Forego, Ruffian, Affirmed, Spectacular Bid, etc.)? Really?

I'd love to see AP win the Breeders Cup Classic and set a modern day bar to be overcome - but let's see his body of work and who he beats before we put him up against the aforementioned crew.

thaskalos
06-09-2015, 08:41 PM
How would you rate a horse like Zenyatta? She definitely didn't set the world on fire with her speed figures.

How can you say that AP isn't a truly elite given the accomplishment of the triple crown? Given that today's horses normally run 5-7 per year with ample rest between races, the only horses required to be on a different schedule are the horses that have a chance at a TC.

Zenyatta proved that she was one of the best ever FEMALES...not one of the best ever HORSES. It would be a travesty of justice to compare Zenyatta with Secretariat, Spectacular Bid and Seattle Slew. Her last run over the main track at the Breeders Cup eclipses anything that American Pharoah has done up until now, IMO...and I would bet on the 7 year-old Zenyatta with both hands if she were to somehow be found in the starting gate of this year's Breeders Cup.

The accomplishment of the Triple Crown does not necessarily put a horse on the same level with Secretariat, Seattle Slew, or even Affirmed. If we are to hold the accomplishment of the Triple Crown in the high esteem that you suggest...then we would have to conclude that American Pharoah is better than Spectacular Bid. And that would be a very irresponsible comparison...IMO.

VeryOldMan
06-09-2015, 08:49 PM
The bid was a 3 year old when he lost to Affirmed..As a 4 year old Bid had one of the greatest racing seasons ever..East/West carrried top weight tracks records at different tracks..Form 7f to 1 1/4 undefeated and not one of those races was close.Slew couldnt sniff the Bid

Bid was a great horse - as was Seattle Slew. If you don't realize that, you must not have been watching the same races I was. If Slew couldn't sniff the Bid, then Bid has no excuse for losing to Affirmed, who got beat heads-up by Slew.

If you want to discuss distance range of victories - check out Forego. Sprint champion when younger and then later won at 2 miles.

LottaKash
06-09-2015, 08:49 PM
Common sense says AP's performance was nothing special, you must wonder why anyone would think something different.

Perhaps it might be this, that in each of his successive races, he had the lead at the midstretch call, and then goes on to increase that lead right to the wire...

Wouldn't that suggest anything to an astute observer ?

He's got an eye-popper in him, but imo, he hasn't had to show it just yet... :jump:

dilanesp
06-09-2015, 08:51 PM
Last time I have checked the TC winner list I did not see Alysheba, Cigar or Zenyatta in them.. Am I missing something here?

What you are missing is that winning the TC does not make a horse "great". In no universe are either Sir Barton or Omaha all time greats, for instance.

BlueChip@DRF
06-09-2015, 09:02 PM
Secretariat was so good.....

The only opponent he really had were the old record times of the distances he raced. :)

And then again a lot of the horses I bet on also ran great! It took entire fields to beat them! :cool:

Kash$
06-09-2015, 09:03 PM
Bid was a great horse - as was Seattle Slew. If you don't realize that, you must not have been watching the same races I was. If Slew couldn't sniff the Bid, then Bid has no excuse for losing to Affirmed, who got beat heads-up by Slew.

If you want to discuss distance range of victories - check out Forego. Sprint champion when younger and then later won at 2 miles.

Slew and Affirmed 4 year old season isnt on the same planet as Spectacular Bid,
Affirmed beat Bid when Bid was 3 ....And if Shoemaker had ridden Bid in the Belmont we would be talking about him as maybe the greatest ever as Red didnt run at 4

DeltaLover
06-09-2015, 09:04 PM
What you are missing is that winning the TC does not make a horse "great". In no universe are either Sir Barton or Omaha all time greats, for instance.

I am not missing this of course.. Your Sir Barton, Omaha (Man O War fits in this list as well) is not good of course, simply because by the time they were running the TC was not what we have today..


But for a non TC winner horse to become great, he needs to accomplish a career similar to KELSO or to RIBOT or to FRANKEL. Cigar or Curlin were not even close to Kelso's accomplishments..

As an example, if Shared Belief manages to stay until the age of 8 and win 3 or 4 BCC during this period, then yes he will be a match for Kelso.. As you can see the standards are quite high when we are talking about the creme of the creme in horse racing..

thaskalos
06-09-2015, 09:07 PM
I am not missing this of course.. Your Sir Barton, Omaha (Man O War fits in this list as well) is not good of course, simply because by the time they were running the TC was not what we have today..


But for a non TC winner horse to become great, he needs to accomplish a career similar to KELSO or to RIBOT or to FRANKEL. Cigar or Curlin were not even close to Kelso's accomplishments..

As an example, if Shared Belief manages to stay until the age of 8 and win 3 or 4 BCC during this period, then yes he will be a match for Kelso.. As you can see the standards are quite high when we are talking about the creme of the creme in horse racing..

And yet...you have declared that American Pharoah belongs right among the All-Time Greats...if only he could win this year's Breeders Cup, even by a diminishing length.

DeltaLover
06-09-2015, 09:10 PM
And yet...you have declared that American Pharoah belongs right among the All-Time Greats...if only he could win this year's Breeders Cup, even by a diminishing length.

I have said and I will repeat it again, that if AP goes on to win TRAVERS + JGC + BCC he will be one of the ALL TIME GREATS regardless of speed figures and margins of victory..

thaskalos
06-09-2015, 09:12 PM
I have said and I will repeat it again, that if AP goes on to win TRAVERS + JGC + BCC he will be one of the ALL TIME GREATS regardless of speed figures and margins of victory..

I don't agree.

DeltaLover
06-09-2015, 09:16 PM
I don't agree.

That's the main reason behind the existence of this game...

AndyC
06-09-2015, 09:17 PM
The accomplishment of the Triple Crown does not necessarily put a horse on the same level with Secretariat, Seattle Slew, or even Affirmed. If we are to hold the accomplishment of the Triple Crown in the high esteem that you suggest...then we would have to conclude that American Pharoah is better than Spectacular Bid. And that would be a very irresponsible comparison...IMO.

Just as Robin Yount isn't the player Babe Ruth was he was still an elite player and is in the Hall of Fame.

I am in no way trying to rank horses but I would say that AP has accomplished enough to at least be a Robin Yount in the conversation.

moneyandland
06-09-2015, 09:26 PM
The triple crown just means you were the best 3yo for 6 weeks , winning all 3 races is hard but winning them alone isn't enough.

Real Quiet lost by 1 inch would that have made comparisons to Secretariat? If American Pharoah had gotten the pressure Smarty Jones had take from 3 different horses at 3 different parts of the race then the run Frosted made would of been similar to Birdstone.

The Kentucky Derby would of been a different game for American Pharoah in the years before the points system, when speedsters were throwing wrenches in the mix, The KY Derby 1/2 mile for Point Given was 44-4, something like that would of made a whole new ball game for AP. AP got dream trips in the Derby and Belmont, and he made his own great trip in the Preakness with his ability.

The Brooklyn with older horses ran earlier on the card shows that AP's Belmont was far from GREAT, Cmon that was a field of inner track horses and strictly on time he was only 3 lengths better.

With the state of the game and breeding it's unlikely AP will get the chance to prove his greatness, A Haskell romp is most likely and then will come his chance to prove his greatness, but the triple crown itself doesn't make him great, I've seen very good horses lose triple crown races. Only 1 horse a year can win the triple crown and that's decided a lot by racing luck on Derby Day, This year things went smooth for AP and he got the chance, Damascus, Risen Star, Point Given, Afleet Alex all ran as good as AP did after they were just a little short on racing luck to get the TC bid started

VeryOldMan
06-09-2015, 09:47 PM
I have said and I will repeat it again, that if AP goes on to win TRAVERS + JGC + BCC he will be one of the ALL TIME GREATS regardless of speed figures and margins of victory..

I come at it somewhat differently. If he wins those three races - regardless of speed figures - then he will be setting a bar that hasn't been accomplished (given that the BCC didn't previously exist - TC+BCC). That would be a historic performance that deserves to be engraved as an "all time great". If he wins the BCC - we'll be seeing a new Quadruple Crown, which we might never see again in our lifetime.

Alas there's virtually no chance he'll race as a 4 year old, so he will never be in a position like Seattle Slew, Affirmed, Spectacular Bid, etc. to prove his greatness like they did, racing against each other and older horses. He hasn't set track records like Secretariat, Dr. Fager, Ruffian, etc. So that's the issue.

Cratos
06-09-2015, 09:57 PM
The Forego he beat in the Derby was hardly the Forego we all came to know. He got very good after being gelded. He didn't win a graded stakes until December that year. He also won an allowance race on the same day Secretariat won the Belmont, 1 1/16 miles in 1:40 4/5 into a headwind on the backstretch. (They noted that in charts back then)
Did not Mrs. Gerry have Forego gelded as a 2yo in order to get him to race and he did not race as a 2yo, but did well as a 3yo and I believe he ran second in a major 3yo prep for the Derby.

Also he bumped onto the rail during the Derby and I think he finished fourth in the Derby.

1973 was a great year for 3yos with horses like Shecky Green, Stop The Music, Step Nicely, and Dalhia including Secretariat, Sham, and Forego.

cj
06-09-2015, 10:02 PM
Did not Mrs. Gerry have Forego gelded as a 2yo in order to get him to race and he did not race as a 2yo, but did well as a 3yo and I believe he ran second in a major 3yo prep for the Derby.

Also he bumped onto the rail during the Derby and I think he finished fourth in the Derby.

1973 was a great year for 3yos with horses like Shecky Green, Stop The Music, Step Nicely, and Dalhia including Secretariat, Sham, and Forego.

Could be, I thought I had read he was gelded later but I don't know. It doesn't matter to what I was saying. He really didn't come into his own until late in his 3yo season. He lost an allowance race by 7 in his next start after his Belmont day race. It was to the very good Prove Out, but still, hardly the Forego we read about now.

EMD4ME
06-09-2015, 10:05 PM
The triple crown just means you were the best 3yo for 6 weeks , winning all 3 races is hard but winning them alone isn't enough.

Real Quiet lost by 1 inch would that have made comparisons to Secretariat? If American Pharoah had gotten the pressure Smarty Jones had take from 3 different horses at 3 different parts of the race then the run Frosted made would of been similar to Birdstone.

The Kentucky Derby would of been a different game for American Pharoah in the years before the points system, when speedsters were throwing wrenches in the mix, The KY Derby 1/2 mile for Point Given was 44-4, something like that would of made a whole new ball game for AP. AP got dream trips in the Derby and Belmont, and he made his own great trip in the Preakness with his ability.

The Brooklyn with older horses ran earlier on the card shows that AP's Belmont was far from GREAT, Cmon that was a field of inner track horses and strictly on time he was only 3 lengths better.

With the state of the game and breeding it's unlikely AP will get the chance to prove his greatness, A Haskell romp is most likely and then will come his chance to prove his greatness, but the triple crown itself doesn't make him great, I've seen very good horses lose triple crown races. Only 1 horse a year can win the triple crown and that's decided a lot by racing luck on Derby Day, This year things went smooth for AP and he got the chance, Damascus, Risen Star, Point Given, Afleet Alex all ran as good as AP did after they were just a little short on racing luck to get the TC bid started

FACT
FACT
FACT
FACT
FACT
FACT
FACT
FACT
FACT
FACT
FACT

Please, facts are not allowable here by the parties who no matter what fact is thrown at them, continue to repeat what their heart believes:

American Pharoah is the greatest racehorse of all time.

Don't be upset at them, just encourage them to bet and bet heavy, every day. :cool:

For all the knocks Andy Beyer gets on here, he said it right. 'He saw a dream trip for a racehorse who he can't wait to play against next time'.

It's obvious to many but their blinded. Maybe it's because they want to believe they found the next Secretariat.

He's a good to very good 3YO, nothing more at this point. To even compare him to Secretariat is a complete joke. Smarty Jones rattled off a MONSTER middle half mile and fought valiantly to inside the 1/16 pole with the lead through legit fractions. He fought off 3 moves by jocks looking to railroad him. He ran A SPECTACULAR race in defeat. His defeat was WAY more impressive than AP's Belmont win. In fact it was way more impressive than any of AP's wins.

Yes, AP will win the Haskell. He will be 1/100000. He will face no competition and will prove nothing. We will maybe and I say maybe get the true answer of how good AP is IF and I do mean IF he faces the starter in the BC Classic.

Somehow, I have a feeling, his toe will hurt that week. I can't blame the connections but that might end up being the ending. We've seen it all too many times before.

DeltaLover
06-09-2015, 10:09 PM
I come at it somewhat differently. If he wins those three races - regardless of speed figures - then he will be setting a bar that hasn't been accomplished (given that the BCC didn't previously exist - TC+BCC). That would be a historic performance that deserves to be engraved as an "all time great". If he wins the BCC - we'll be seeing a new Quadruple Crown, which we might never see again in our lifetime.

Alas there's virtually no chance he'll race as a 4 year old, so he will never be in a position like Seattle Slew, Affirmed, Spectacular Bid, etc. to prove his greatness like they did, racing against each other and older horses. He hasn't set track records like Secretariat, Dr. Fager, Ruffian, etc. So that's the issue.

We did not see a 4yo campaign neither from MAN O WAR nor from SECRETARIAT. If AP goes on for the Quadruple Crown he will definitely be in the greatest league ever and will be the point of reference for the next century exactly like MOW and S were until now

VeryOldMan
06-09-2015, 10:12 PM
Did not Mrs. Gerry have Forego gelded as a 2yo in order to get him to race and he did not race as a 2yo, but did well as a 3yo and I believe he ran second in a major 3yo prep for the Derby.

Also he bumped onto the rail during the Derby and I think he finished fourth in the Derby.

1973 was a great year for 3yos with horses like Shecky Green, Stop The Music, Step Nicely, and Dalhia including Secretariat, Sham, and Forego.
This is correct. Forego was gelded before he was 3, did not race as a 2 year old and ran second in the Florida Derby.

thaskalos
06-09-2015, 10:12 PM
Just as Robin Yount isn't the player Babe Ruth was he was still an elite player and is in the Hall of Fame.

I am in no way trying to rank horses but I would say that AP has accomplished enough to at least be a Robin Yount in the conversation.
There is a big difference between the "Hall Of Fame"...and the comparison to Secretariat. If you say that Secretariat is Babe Ruth and American Pharoah is Robin Yount...then you'd get no argument from me.

AndyC
06-09-2015, 10:15 PM
For all the knocks Andy Beyer gets on here, he said it right. 'He saw a dream trip for a racehorse who he can't wait to play against next time'....

I saw a horse who had enough speed to put himself into a perfect position where he would not encounter trouble. Also saw a horse that ran the fastest first 6 furlongs of the race and the fastest last 6 furlongs. He has won on lead and off of the lead. He usually wins by open lengths. He runs every race, he didn't get beat by a marginal horse in the race before the Derby as did Secretariat.

cj
06-09-2015, 10:16 PM
I respect your opinion but also am old enough to have witnessed the horses we're discussing from the 70s - are you really planting a flag that American Pharoah could be greater than Secretariat and the other great horses from that era (Seattle Slew, Forego, Ruffian, Affirmed, Spectacular Bid, etc.)? Really?

I'd love to see AP win the Breeders Cup Classic and set a modern day bar to be overcome - but let's see his body of work and who he beats before we put him up against the aforementioned crew.

Like I said, a lot of people still think Johnny U is the greatest QB of all time.

I'm not saying he is as great or greater than any of them. I'm saying nobody really knows. It is a different time and a different sport than it was 37 or 32 or even 20 years ago. But to this point in time, he is as good as any of them were based on accomplishments. Who knows what will happen going forward.

EMD4ME
06-09-2015, 10:19 PM
Maybe not, however AP covered the last 1/16 in 13 strides, which is impressive.

Just for giggles, I re watched Coach Inge replay. He also covered the last 1/16 in 13 strides.

Can we now change the thread to AP VS. Coach Inge ? :lol: :lol: :lol:

Cratos
06-09-2015, 10:24 PM
What you are missing is that winning the TC does not make a horse "great". In no universe are either Sir Barton or Omaha all time greats, for instance.
You are absolutely correct because the horse that rate behind Secretariat and Man O'War by many horseracing historians is none other than the great Dr. Fager who never ran in the TC races.

Also during its reign, the handicap TC of the Met at 1 mile, the Brooklyn at 1-1/8m and the Suburban at 1-1/2m with the winner carrying increasingly more weight in each race was more demanding than any 3yo TC ever.

EMD4ME
06-09-2015, 10:30 PM
I saw a horse who had enough speed to put himself into a perfect position where he would not encounter trouble. Also saw a horse that ran the fastest first 6 furlongs of the race and the fastest last 6 furlongs. He has won on lead and off of the lead. He usually wins by open lengths. He runs every race, he didn't get beat by a marginal horse in the race before the Derby as did Secretariat.

Of course he ran the fastest first 6F, he had the lead. Of course he ran the fastest last 6F, that's usually what happens when the best horse in the race gets the lead, waltzes through comfortable fractions on a great RAIL and pro speed day. Yes, he was better than Frosted Saturday. I give that to him. However, it was a boat race with no one trying to win until it was too late.

The 2015 Belmont was the dream scenario for AP. Walk to the lead, get zero pressure and sprint home when asked.

Give Frosted Edgar Prado, the rail horse Alex Solis and Pletcher's horse Jerry Bailey and we'd all be talking about how poor AP ran a valiant second (at best).

Yes, he earned that trip with his speed. He obviously had nothing to overcome Saturday as he earned his trip and no one wanted to make him sweat.

Good horse, reminds me of Condo Commando in many ways (CC always seems to get a loose lead with no pressure and sometimes a gold rail as well). Of course AP is miles better than CC but let's please call him great AFTER he runs a spectacular race (as Thaskalos pointed out) or after he overcomes ANY and I do mean any pace difficulty or trip difficulty. It's been 1 cream puff trip after the other. Yes, because he is better than his peers but that doesn't make him one of the best of all time just yet.

Augenj
06-09-2015, 10:51 PM
There's no proof that Sham had an oversized heart at his autopsy.

Secretariat had an oversized heart, but the x-rays during his life showed that it was a couple of pounds larger than a normal heart. The story told by his forensic pathologist (that he supposedly had a 22 pound heart, but there isn't as much as a single photograph of it and Sham supposedly had the second largest heart in history) is almost certainly completely false.

It's one of the great fish stories in the history of horse racing-- perfectly calibrated to be believed by the gullible.

As for Sham in the Belmont-- if he had been going for the TC rather than Secretariat, there would have been a lot more than 5 horses entered in the race. (And, of course, he ran last and couldn't even beat Private Smiles in the actual race. We don't even know the horse could get 1 1/2 miles.)
Ah, yes. I see we agree on everything. Now get those panties unbunched. :lol:

Cratos
06-09-2015, 10:51 PM
We did not see a 4yo campaign neither from MAN O WAR nor from SECRETARIAT. If AP goes on for the Quadruple Crown he will definitely be in the greatest league ever and will be the point of reference for the next century exactly like MOW and S were until now
Secretariat didn't need a 4yo campaign to prove his merit against older horses because 5 of his 12 3yo starts were against older which he had a 3-2 record including a world record and toted a scale highweight in the Marlboro Hcp in which he set a world record for 1-1/8m .

I will wait for American Pharoah to do the same.

DeltaLover
06-09-2015, 11:00 PM
Secretariat didn't need a 4yo campaign to prove his merit against older horses because 5 of his 12 3yo starts were against older which he had a 3-2 record including a world record and toted a scale highweight in the Marlboro Hcp in which he set a world record for 1-1/8m .

I will wait for American Pharoah to do the same.

He still lost two of his three dirt races against 4yo, although nobody wants to talk about them.

DeltaLover
06-09-2015, 11:01 PM
I will wait for American Pharoah to do the same.

My feeling has it that AP can even do better!

PaceAdvantage
06-10-2015, 12:11 AM
Please, facts are not allowable here by the parties who no matter what fact is thrown at them, continue to repeat what their heart believes:

American Pharoah is the greatest racehorse of all time. Your shtick gets more idiotic by the day.

EMD4ME
06-10-2015, 12:16 AM
Sincerely, why? Because I'm not on the AP is god bandwagon?

People can give it but I'm not allowed to use facts in response and then accuse someone of being blinded by their emotions?

AndyC
06-10-2015, 12:25 AM
....Yes, he earned that trip with his speed. He obviously had nothing to overcome Saturday as he earned his trip and no one wanted to make him sweat.

Good horse, reminds me of Condo Commando in many ways (CC always seems to get a loose lead with no pressure and sometimes a gold rail as well). Of course AP is miles better than CC but let's please call him great AFTER he runs a spectacular race (as Thaskalos pointed out) or after he overcomes ANY and I do mean any pace difficulty or trip difficulty. It's been 1 cream puff trip after the other. Yes, because he is better than his peers but that doesn't make him one of the best of all time just yet.

The problem with your analysis of the Belmont is that all the horses were trying to make him sweat but they couldn't do it. Since his loss in his debut race no horse has made him sweat. I'm shocked people aren't impressed with open length victories both on the lead and off the lead from 6 furlongs to 1 and 1/2 miles. I am not arguing whether or not he is better than Secretariat or Citation or any other horse. He has gone about his business in an elite manner. I choose to watch him and admire his ability and not try to definitively determine where he stands in the pecking order of greatness. Frankly, I couldn't care less.

EMD4ME
06-10-2015, 12:36 AM
The problem with your analysis of the Belmont is that all the horses were trying to make him sweat but they couldn't do it. Since his loss in his debut race no horse has made him sweat. I'm shocked people aren't impressed with open length victories both on the lead and off the lead from 6 furlongs to 1 and 1/2 miles. I am not arguing whether or not he is better than Secretariat or Citation or any other horse. He has gone about his business in an elite manner. I choose to watch him and admire his ability and not try to definitively determine where he stands in the pecking order of greatness. Frankly, I couldn't care less.

Then we disagree. I didn't see a single horse try and make him sweat in the first 6 furlongs. That imho gave him the ability to play follow the leader in the ladder half of the race as YES we was also the best horse in the race.

We are in the AP VS. Secretariat thread, hence my thoughts comparing him to other all time greats.

thaskalos
06-10-2015, 12:39 AM
The problem with your analysis of the Belmont is that all the horses were trying to make him sweat but they couldn't do it. Since his loss in his debut race no horse has made him sweat. I'm shocked people aren't impressed with open length victories both on the lead and off the lead from 6 furlongs to 1 and 1/2 miles. I am not arguing whether or not he is better than Secretariat or Citation or any other horse. He has gone about his business in an elite manner. I choose to watch him and admire his ability and not try to definitively determine where he stands in the pecking order of greatness. Frankly, I couldn't care less.

Your post #45 of this thread was sounding different than this one sounds, however. It looked to me as if you were comparing AP to the Big Red.

thaskalos
06-10-2015, 12:42 AM
Sincerely, why? Because I'm not on the AP is god bandwagon?

People can give it but I'm not allowed to use facts in response and then accuse someone of being blinded by their emotions?

I am with you on this one, EMD4ME. All comparisons between The Pharoah and Big Red, or the other All-Time Greats, are beyond ridiculous, IMO. And they used to make fun of me during the days of Zenyatta. :)

EMD4ME
06-10-2015, 01:04 AM
I am with you on this one, EMD4ME. All comparisons between The Pharoah and Big Red are beyond ridiculous, IMO. And they used to make fun of me during the days of Zenyatta. :)

Heck, if AP turns out to amaze me in coming races, I'll be the first to say I was SO wrong about him. Right now, sorry he hasn't. Very good horse, has done all he has been asked to, many times in style. But his 3 TC races just irk me. I was not impressed on a high level by any of them. Who knows, maybe I'm just a tough judger of horse talent. I've been around long enough to know that until a horse has been challenged (not just eye to eye but with poor trips/biases against them/stress etc) AND they perform through it, they are not as good as people think they are.

Shared Belief, HE WON ME OVER. He had some VICIOUS trips and pace scenarios/subtle pace trouble that he overcame like a TENACIOUS monster.

AP hasn't done that. Not once. Not one eye catching, breath taking move. Not one instance where he overcame and was the impressive winner.

Facile wins in cakewalk fashion (by speed horses) just don't impress me (most of his wins).

All this talk about how he just put all these challengers away in the Belmont make me laugh. That's what happens when you walk on the lead, with SLOW splits, with a very good rail, a track conducive to speed AND YOUR FIRST CHALLENGE IS 6 Furlongs into the race. The race was over after the first quarter. Any intelligent eye knew all horses became 50/1 shots after the first quarter. And don't get me wrong, all those things didn't make him win. He was the best horse and when the best horse gets the best trip, TA DAH!, what do you think happens. They look better than what they are. Even if it's just a hair better, they look better than what they are.

And yes I did say it. He will WIN easily if the pin heads ride like the NYRA boys normally do: Break well and CHOKE. (Irad and JV).

For the record and to be fair, I was so anti Zenyatta. Not because I didn't find her cute dancing so adorable. Not because I didn't like her. Not because I didn't think she was a great horse but for simply the following: I didn't like how people professed her to be the most awesome horse since the days of Before Christ. I gladly crushed Blame in the Classic and yes, part of me felt really bad for her as deep down, a part of me really admired her. I just didn't think she was THE BEST of any racehorse. Best filly, yes. 99% than most males, probably. One problem, I loved Blame all year.

Anyway, congrats again to AP. He is the best of this crop, thru June and was in the right place at the right time with the right talent to take advantage of great racing luck and the opportunities.

taxicab
06-10-2015, 01:13 AM
Sincerely, why? Because I'm not on the AP is god bandwagon?

People can give it but I'm not allowed to use facts in response and then accuse someone of being blinded by their emotions?

Facts ?
How about these AP facts:

Eclipse award winning Champion 2yo.
Grade 1 wins on Synthetic/Mud/Fast surfaces.
Broke his maiden in a Gr.1 sprinting in 1:21.2(going wire to wire including a 6 furlong split of 1:08.4).
Defeated the Breeders Cup Juvenile winner Texas Red (in the Gr. 1 Frontrunner) as he pleased.
Has won 7 Graded Stakes in a row(6 of them Gr.1's) by a combined 35+lengths.
His 6 Grade 1 victories are at 6 different race tracks at 6 different distances.
There's more on AP, but most of it has already been covered on the board(Derby/Preakness/Belmont analysis).....and it's all very favorable.
The DRF page has all of AP's races in a neat little package.
You'll never see a horse dominate in an easier fashion then AP.
American Pharoah is a flat out Superstar.


http://www.drf.com/events/american-pharoah-coverage

TBD
06-10-2015, 01:44 AM
All I have is this. He beat the crowd at Churchill. He tackled the rain at Pimlico. He ran the distance at Belmont. He has beaten the conditions. He did what was asked. He is the Triple Crown Winner.

Cratos
06-10-2015, 02:14 AM
He still lost two of his three dirt races against 4yo, although nobody wants to talk about them.
I have never or read anything where some one from the era of Secretariat refused to talk about Secretariat's losses.

During that era it was great to have such conversatios because there was so many good races on both coasts.

By the way Secretariat loss to older horse Prove Out was at 1-1/2m in a sizzling 2:25 4/5 which is faster than the anointed time that AP ran in the Belmont Stakes.

Stillriledup
06-10-2015, 02:24 AM
Sincerely, why? Because I'm not on the AP is god bandwagon?

People can give it but I'm not allowed to use facts in response and then accuse someone of being blinded by their emotions?

Ive found that people start out wanting to use facts, but what ends up happening in most cases is that emotion takes over and when that happens, its hard to go back to facts, so you end up arguing w people who are like religious zealots who scream my imaginary friend is better than YOUR imaginary friend.

If you are just trying to cash a ticket and can care less who wins or loses, its much easier to have an opinion thats not clouded by unreasonable emotion.

lamboguy
06-10-2015, 03:11 AM
whatever AMERICAN PHAROAH does or doesn't do with not effect what SECRETARIAT has done in his career. they are 2 different individuals in 2 different era's.

the PHAROAH can run out the table and win the Breeder's Cup Classic and shatter the clock and i won't come on this board and tell you that he was so much better than SECRETARIAT because he did more.

face it folk, they are both great in their own ways so far and it just not fair to compare the 2 of them right now. lets wait and see at the end of the year what happens.

Valuist
06-10-2015, 07:55 AM
I am not missing this of course.. Your Sir Barton, Omaha (Man O War fits in this list as well) is not good of course, simply because by the time they were running the TC was not what we have today..


But for a non TC winner horse to become great, he needs to accomplish a career similar to KELSO or to RIBOT or to FRANKEL. Cigar or Curlin were not even close to Kelso's accomplishments..

As an example, if Shared Belief manages to stay until the age of 8 and win 3 or 4 BCC during this period, then yes he will be a match for Kelso.. As you can see the standards are quite high when we are talking about the creme of the creme in horse racing..

I don't agree. Not all horses are mature enough to win at 10 furlongs or 9.5 furlongs in May; and some don't develop much after the spring of their 3 year old year. Horses like John Henry, Cigar, Curlin, Alysheba and Slew O Gold were all great horses. And all those horses ran giant races in the fall. The Triple Crown races are overhyped because they are basically the only races the general public acknowledges. The public doesn't care about the BC Classic, the Met Mile or Pacific Classic.

Augenj
06-10-2015, 08:01 AM
Ive found that people start out wanting to use facts, but what ends up happening in most cases is that emotion takes over and when that happens, its hard to go back to facts, so you end up arguing w people who are like religious zealots who scream my imaginary friend is better than YOUR imaginary friend.

If you are just trying to cash a ticket and can care less who wins or loses, its much easier to have an opinion thats not clouded by unreasonable emotion.
It's called "cognitive dissonance". :)

cj
06-10-2015, 09:58 AM
He still lost two of his three dirt races against 4yo, although nobody wants to talk about them.

Prove Out and Onion.

cj
06-10-2015, 10:01 AM
The problem with your analysis of the Belmont is that all the horses were trying to make him sweat but they couldn't do it. Since his loss in his debut race no horse has made him sweat. I'm shocked people aren't impressed with open length victories both on the lead and off the lead from 6 furlongs to 1 and 1/2 miles. I am not arguing whether or not he is better than Secretariat or Citation or any other horse. He has gone about his business in an elite manner. I choose to watch him and admire his ability and not try to definitively determine where he stands in the pecking order of greatness. Frankly, I couldn't care less.


Well said. Would it have mattered to people if he won the two races in Arkansas by 20, as he could have? What difference does it make. He is destroying all competition. The Derby was only close because he ran in the middle of the track around both turns. It was a huge effort. I'm not really sure what people expect.

cj
06-10-2015, 10:05 AM
I am with you on this one, EMD4ME. All comparisons between The Pharoah and Big Red, or the other All-Time Greats, are beyond ridiculous, IMO. And they used to make fun of me during the days of Zenyatta. :)

Why? Because it is sacrilege to not say Secretariat is a God? Of course you can compare what they have done so far, and Pharoah is right there with him, if not better since he didn't lose three times to this point. The clock is the only real advantage Secretariat has, and that is just not reliable to me for reasons that have been made clear.

It will be tough for American Pharoah to match what Secretariat did after the Belmont, but it isn't impossible except in the case of fans with big red blinkers on.

cj
06-10-2015, 10:06 AM
Heck, if AP turns out to amaze me in coming races, I'll be the first to say I was SO wrong about him. Right now, sorry he hasn't. Very good horse, has done all he has been asked to, many times in style. But his 3 TC races just irk me. I was not impressed on a high level by any of them. Who knows, maybe I'm just a tough judger of horse talent. I've been around long enough to know that until a horse has been challenged (not just eye to eye but with poor trips/biases against them/stress etc) AND they perform through it, they are not as good as people think they are.

Shared Belief, HE WON ME OVER. He had some VICIOUS trips and pace scenarios/subtle pace trouble that he overcame like a TENACIOUS monster.

AP hasn't done that. Not once. Not one eye catching, breath taking move. Not one instance where he overcame and was the impressive winner.

Facile wins in cakewalk fashion (by speed horses) just don't impress me (most of his wins).

All this talk about how he just put all these challengers away in the Belmont make me laugh. That's what happens when you walk on the lead, with SLOW splits, with a very good rail, a track conducive to speed AND YOUR FIRST CHALLENGE IS 6 Furlongs into the race. The race was over after the first quarter. Any intelligent eye knew all horses became 50/1 shots after the first quarter. And don't get me wrong, all those things didn't make him win. He was the best horse and when the best horse gets the best trip, TA DAH!, what do you think happens. They look better than what they are. Even if it's just a hair better, they look better than what they are.

And yes I did say it. He will WIN easily if the pin heads ride like the NYRA boys normally do: Break well and CHOKE. (Irad and JV).

For the record and to be fair, I was so anti Zenyatta. Not because I didn't find her cute dancing so adorable. Not because I didn't like her. Not because I didn't think she was a great horse but for simply the following: I didn't like how people professed her to be the most awesome horse since the days of Before Christ. I gladly crushed Blame in the Classic and yes, part of me felt really bad for her as deep down, a part of me really admired her. I just didn't think she was THE BEST of any racehorse. Best filly, yes. 99% than most males, probably. One problem, I loved Blame all year.

Anyway, congrats again to AP. He is the best of this crop, thru June and was in the right place at the right time with the right talent to take advantage of great racing luck and the opportunities.

Shared Belief was cost a few lengths at the start of his biggest test and got dusted by Bayern, among others. That is your champion?

AndyC
06-10-2015, 10:35 AM
Your post #45 of this thread was sounding different than this one sounds, however. It looked to me as if you were comparing AP to the Big Red.

In #45 I was merely pointing out the hypocrisy of how the greats of the past were excused for inexplicable losses while a horse like AP is berated for how he wins races. I will leave the historical ranking of horses to those who find value in such an effort.

classhandicapper
06-10-2015, 11:36 AM
It absolutely amazes me that anyone could say anything critical about American Pharoah at this stage.

He's 7 for 7 on dirt, has won from 7F to 12F, has dismissed Grade 1 winners that tried to challenge him like they were gnats at a picnic, held together for the Triple Crown, and he's dominating a crop that has almost universally been regarded as strong all along. Exactly what hasn't he done?

IMO any and all speed figure arguments are totally bogus. It depends on whose figures you are looking at. I've seen 4 sets of figures for the Belmont. They range from him being below average to one of the fastest 3yos in history. That tells you how suspect they are as an objective measurement. They don't even agree on the same race on a day that wasn't all that complex, let alone on horses that raced in different years or eras. People that view their "own figures" or whatever set that use as the absolute truth are living a delusion. There are a lot of extremely smart figure makers out there and they rarely agree on anything. You need other standards.

IMO his Belmont was not the equal of Secretariat's by any standard. Secretariat's Belmont was a one time incredible performance. But IMO it's too early to say what AP's legacy will be relative to the all time greats. He has 3 more important races where he might demonstrate a lot or fail badly. The real shame is that we won't get to see him at 4. It's at 4 that some horses really show what they are made of.

thaskalos
06-10-2015, 12:00 PM
Saying that American Pharoah isn't Secretariat isn't being critical of the Pharoah.

PaceAdvantage
06-10-2015, 12:14 PM
Sincerely, why? Because I'm not on the AP is god bandwagon?

People can give it but I'm not allowed to use facts in response and then accuse someone of being blinded by their emotions?Yeah, I wrote that because you're not on the AP is god bandwagon... :rolleyes:

Another gem from you...

The only reason people "give it" to you, is because you're posting just to push buttons...

But if you need it spelled out, NO, I didn't write that because you're not on the AP is god bandwagon.

PaceAdvantage
06-10-2015, 12:19 PM
BTW, does anyone think I'm on the AP is God bandwagon?

If so, please offer proof... :lol:

elhelmete
06-10-2015, 12:22 PM
He's 7 for 7 on dirt, has won from 7F to 12F, has dismissed Grade 1 winners that tried to challenge him like they were gnats at a picnic, held together for the Triple Crown, and he's dominating a crop that has almost universally been regarded as strong all along. Exactly what hasn't he done?

My feelings exactly. At some point, the horses competing against him...for whom every excuse in the book has been offered...need to actually finish ahead of him for me to take notice. I can only hear so much "ran against a bias", "stupid pinhead jock," "dead track," "got knocked around," etc. It's mid-June...the competition is running out of time AND excuses.

If I'm to believe AP is as mediocre as some say ($50k claimer), then it cannot at this stage also be true that his competition isn't proportionally worse. For one or two races...maybe. But not now. IMHO.

PS AP is not god.

thaskalos
06-10-2015, 12:24 PM
BTW, does anyone think I'm on the AP is God bandwagon?

If so, please offer proof... :lol:
No...I think your position on AP has been fair and objective. In fact...I wish your objectivity on this issue were contagious. :)

thaskalos
06-10-2015, 12:27 PM
In #45 I was merely pointing out the hypocrisy of how the greats of the past were excused for inexplicable losses while a horse like AP is berated for how he wins races. I will leave the historical ranking of horses to those who find value in such an effort.
The Pharoah is not berated for the way he wins his races. His winning performances are scrutinized so they can be better understood. The essence of "handicapping"...IMO.

Laminarman
06-10-2015, 12:41 PM
Don't mean to hijack but to lighten the mood, I kinda like the history of this horse. OK, I'm biased, he's buried near my home and I've been to the property where the horse lived with Sun Briar along the banks of the Susquehanna. If anyone wants a photo of his resting place I can post it.

http://colinsghost.org/2010/10/exterminator-the-greatest-ever.html

AndyC
06-10-2015, 12:46 PM
The Pharoah is not berated for the way he wins his races. His winning performances are scrutinized so they can be better understood. The essence of "handicapping"...IMO.

Can you now say that we have a better understanding of his winning performances after 130 posts of scrutiny?

ultracapper
06-10-2015, 01:18 PM
If you just watch the races, watch AP's and Sec's, you can see the difference. Whether the tracks are different today or exactly the same, all the horse's in that particular race are running on that particular track, so the way Sec sizes up to the fields he ran against can be measured exactly the same as the way AP measures up to the fields he has ran against.

I've been really off the wall about AP as I've mentioned numerous times on this board that I thought his race in the Rebel was jaw dropping, particularly the way he finished that race. I saw a very impressive race horse in that race, and I would love to really see him need to find "some more" in the stretch in an upcoming race, because I'm dead certain he has it. His closing numbers have been ridiculed on this board numerous times, but when I watch that Rebel, it tells me he can pop like nobody else if he needs to at the 3/16th.

However, watching Secretariat's races is nothing short of a religious experience for a visual handicapper like myself. I've seen probably half his races, and the horse was simply a freaking freak. Every horse gets beat (well, except for a few here and there), and Secretariat was no exception, but he won so many of his races in a dominant style that maybe I've only seen a couple other horses even approach (One being Spectacular Bid). I've just never seen anything like Secretariat on the race course. You can actually feel the force of his presence in the race 40 years later on replay. He was the epitome of the playground king. It was him, and everybody else. AP doesn't have that presence, and hasn't just beat down his competition the way Secretariat did a number of times.

I think AP is a rock solid race horse, and have no issue calling him a great race horse, even at this point in his career, but Secretariat is just something else. I know there is a lot of "Secretariat is off limits" attitude in the horse racing community that can get unreasonable at times, as if it's a crime to even have a discussion like this. But Secretariat gave his followers plenty of reason to feel as they do, and plenty of ammo to back it up. Freak is the only word for him, or Monster, if you wish.

ILovetheInner
06-10-2015, 01:27 PM
He still lost two of his three dirt races against 4yo, although nobody wants to talk about them.

Nobody as in who? That is racing legend and gets mentioned every time anyone wants to talk about Jerkens, about Spa's graveyard of favorites, etc.

Horses lose. Slew lost, Bid lost, Dr. Fager, Kelso. They are not machines. It is silly, IMO, arguing about his prowess, which was overt. His career as a juvenile was epic, earning him HOY and resulting in a record syndication before he even started at three. Seth Hancock put his fledgling reputation on the line for that....and that was off his juvenile form alone. He used different tactics in each of his TC races....Lauren had him perfect, and he was untouchable. His Marlboro included Riva, champion Key to the Mint, HOF Cougar II, the Travers winner and Onion (who got dusted...no virus this time), and was won with similar prowess. It was a world record performance and two weeks later he wasn't quite able to regroup and deal with Prove Out, who shaved 2:26 in winning that race. Secretariat ran the race in 2:26 3/5.....and that was when he was having a bad day, lol

This is a time of promise. All AP has done so far is beat precocious foals of 2012. He has mastered them, clearly. What they do in the aftermath will better qualify things and add substance to the numbers, and of course what he does against his elders.

Comparisons are taking his promise and putting it against the body of work of others. That's just stupid, IMO. The greatest horse I saw in my lifetime (started in 1971) was Forego. We all have that bar, and he is mine. Secretariat is by a margin the most freakishly talented horse I have seen. But I'll never know of his metaphorical heart and his ability to overcome the odds. Forego was grossly unsound, would win over strips he could not handle, and of course the preposterous weight assignments. He had much legitimacy as a two mile G1 horse, and also dusted Mr. Prospector. His famed Marlboro IMO is the greatest effort I have seen in my lifetime. Period. 31 lengths notwithstanding.

There is nothing wrong with people feeling AP needs to prove it before he belongs with those names. I have no problem saying that. He humbled me with his finish in the Belmont, but that didn't seal anything. Materiality finished last, Mubtaahij got a "no rally" comment, and Frosted is a horse I don't find particularly win happy. If Frosted wins the Jim Dandy by five and doubles in the Travers then maybe that's something. The Haskell is where AP will run, it will come up light, and he will romp. No question in my mind we will rely on the rest of the crop to define APs accomplishments until the fall.

I have no problem *to this day* looking back on Slew's TC and finding it all silly. Those were very outclassed horses and it was easy. Proved nothing IMO. He overcame trouble in the Derby, impressive were it not Run Dusty Run who the worst of his problems. His body of work in the aftermath is what puts him on my top five list as one of the greatest racehorses I ever saw. The tougher they were, the harder he came. This is to me the most similar to AP. Dashing juvenile, had it easy in the TC. He will hopefully face his elders at some point. And then we will see.

classhandicapper
06-10-2015, 01:36 PM
Saying that American Pharoah isn't Secretariat isn't being critical of the Pharoah.

I don't think you've expressed any opinions I would disagree with. I've read some opinions that seemed more geared towards diminishing his ability based on some number or the fact that he had a relatively easy trip in the Belmont.

I don't buy it.

The figures are often BS and his consistency and the brilliance of some his performances are telling you this isn't some fluke horse that happened to get sharp for 6 weeks against a mediocre group. He's a great 3yo in a pretty darn good crop. He needs more time to prove how great.

EMD4ME
06-10-2015, 02:51 PM
Shared Belief was cost a few lengths at the start of his biggest test and got dusted by Bayern, among others. That is your champion?

Holy crap...Are you kidding me? You have created such a high bar for yourself (and WELL deserved) and I'm surprised to hear you say that. Are you serious that you think THAT start didn't cost him the entire race and more than a handful of lengths? It's a testament to his talent that he even ran 4th and that close at the wire.

That start changed the entire outcome of the race. It changed the pace, it knocked out his lungs, it changed dynamics it changed it all.

I'm not even a SB fan, so let's not go there. I'm a NY guy/east coast guy who was amazed as I watched a horse who I questioned and said to myself WOW as he overcame and overcame and overcame. That's a race horse.

EMD4ME
06-10-2015, 03:04 PM
Yeah, I wrote that because you're not on the AP is god bandwagon... :rolleyes:

Another gem from you...

The only reason people "give it" to you, is because you're posting just to push buttons...

But if you need it spelled out, NO, I didn't write that because you're not on the AP is god bandwagon.


ok, I accept your apology :) Just kidding.... Had that on the tip of my tongue and had to type it LOL.

I really don't post for reaction or pushing buttons. Here and there I'll crack a joke. Just because I have a contrarian point of view sometimes doesn't mean I'm saying things for a reaction.

As Thaskalos said, when it comes to these horses that are hailed to no end, I seriously take out a fine tooth comb to assess, what's wrong with that? And yes, if I find any angle, I might play against them at a short price.

Look at the bright side, this horse has people talking and talking and talking horse racing.

cj
06-10-2015, 03:15 PM
Holy crap...Are you kidding me? You have created such a high bar for yourself (and WELL deserved) and I'm surprised to hear you say that. Are you serious that you think THAT start didn't cost him the entire race and more than a handful of lengths? It's a testament to his talent that he even ran 4th and that close at the wire.

That start changed the entire outcome of the race. It changed the pace, it knocked out his lungs, it changed dynamics it changed it all.

I'm not even a SB fan, so let's not go there. I'm a NY guy/east coast guy who was amazed as I watched a horse who I questioned and said to myself WOW as he overcame and overcame and overcame. That's a race horse.

I tend to underrate trouble these days because it is so overbet at the windows. Materiality in the Derby it a textbook case.

EMD4ME
06-10-2015, 03:22 PM
I tend to underrate trouble these days because it is so overbet at the windows. Materiality in the Derby it a textbook case.


Great point in that yes, I love it when I find trouble that people will overvalue and overbet next time out. That was serious trouble, that was his whole race (SB). Materiality caused his own trouble in the Derby. He didn't break well. He wasn't a victim of a horse pushing him in during the first stride or of a common sandwich job.

ILovetheInner
06-10-2015, 03:23 PM
I don't think you've expressed any opinions I would disagree with. I've read some opinions that seemed more geared towards diminishing his ability based on some number or the fact that he had a relatively easy trip in the Belmont.

I don't buy it.

The figures are often BS and his consistency and the brilliance of some his performances are telling you this isn't some fluke horse that happened to get sharp for 6 weeks against a mediocre group. He's a great 3yo in a pretty darn good crop. He needs more time to prove how great.

I agree with most of this. I think by now it is clear AP is a purely talented horse who will need to be tested by elders to get any more answers than we have now, for he will keep on beating his crop. He could have tougher trips, he could have greater challenges, from this crop, but he looks to have plenty of reserves to deal with that, and a very tractable nature to handle what comes his way.

Where I don't agree is this crop. Heading into Louisville, with all the expectations, what were the odds that of the six horses to round out placings in the TC four would be without a G1 win? Half would be without so much as a G1 placing? Upstart didn't lift a hoof in Louisville, Dortmund clearly was over his top, Materiality finished dead last in the Belmont. Only one place finisher of the three had a G1 win to his credit. ONE. Who would have thought that?

IMO how Frosted runs at Saratoga will reflect back on a lot of things. If he does not win, maybe we need to reconsider certain assumptions.

DeltaLover
06-10-2015, 03:24 PM
Horses lose. Slew lost, Bid lost, Dr. Fager, Kelso. They are not machines. It is silly, IMO, arguing about his prowess, which was overt. His career as a juvenile was epic, earning him HOY and resulting in a record syndication before he even started at three. Seth Hancock put his fledgling reputation on the line for that....and that was off his juvenile form alone.

Juvenile campaigns, no matter how good they can be do not determine greatness.. The dominance against the best possible open companies is what is the most important criterion when it comes to classify a horse as great..

Kelso, yes lost a lot of races, but he still managed to beat the crème of the crème five consecutive years, this is his unique sign of greatness, that nobody else has ever come close to it.

Of course, Kelso was a gelding and a different type of a great horse than Secretariat or Seattle Slew..

When it comes to the latter, given the short duration of their careers, each lose they have in their resume counts a lot against them and there has to be a really good and valid excuse to cover it..

Some of the really great horses, have retired undefeated as:

RIBOT
NEARCHO
FRANKEL

or with a single loss due to a well documented reason as:

MAN O WAR

Either you want to accept it or not, Secretariat was not as dominant as these horses.. I understand that there is a lot of advertising about him and he has been elevated to a mythical status, still the pure facts prove that he was not unbeatable, like RIBOT or FRANKEL...

VeryOldMan
06-10-2015, 03:27 PM
The clock is the only real advantage Secretariat has, and that is just not reliable to me for reasons that have been made clear.

It will be tough for American Pharoah to match what Secretariat did after the Belmont, but it isn't impossible except in the case of fans with big red blinkers on.

Ah - to me the clock is the only constant across all these years and horses we discuss. Everything else changes, but time is eternal - a second now is the same as a second back in 1973. I have more reverence for the teletimer. Your mileage varies, and I respect that.

So I end up having more respect for the horses that set multiple track and world records - like Secretariat did. Dr. Fager. American Pharoah hasn't done that. But I agree there needs to be a "yet". Let's see what he does. If he smokes a solid field in the Breeders Cup Classic in track record time . . . .

Bullet Plane
06-10-2015, 04:04 PM
Ah - to me the clock is the only constant across all these years and horses we discuss. Everything else changes, but time is eternal - a second now is the same as a second back in 1973. I have more reverence for the teletimer. Your mileage varies, and I respect that.

So I end up having more respect for the horses that set multiple track and world records - like Secretariat did. Dr. Fager. American Pharoah hasn't done that. But I agree there needs to be a "yet". Let's see what he does. If he smokes a solid field in the Breeders Cup Classic in track record time . . . .

Well, no need for that...

If you are using only raw times, then AP's Belmont is one of the fastest since 1935... in the top 6 at least..

You must think AP is one hell of a horse!

Maybe he is, but I think most of his detractors are saying the track was about 2 seconds fast...

... and that AP isn't very fast at all.

Kind of an ordinary stakes horse who got lucky with some easy trips.

A great accomplishment, but not a great horse.

iceknight
06-10-2015, 04:17 PM
Juvenile campaigns, no matter how good they can be do not determine greatness.. The dominance against the best possible open companies is what is the most important criterion when it comes to classify a horse as great..

Kelso, yes lost a lot of races, but he still managed to beat the crème of the crème five consecutive years, this is his unique sign of greatness, that nobody else has ever come close to it.

Of course, Kelso was a gelding and a different type of a great horse than Secretariat or Seattle Slew..

When it comes to the latter, given the short duration of their careers, each lose they have in their resume counts a lot against them and there has to be a really good and valid excuse to cover it..

Some of the really great horses, have retired undefeated as:

RIBOT
NEARCHO
FRANKEL

or with a single loss due to a well documented reason as:

MAN O WAR

Either you want to accept it or not, Secretariat was not as dominant as these horses.. I understand that there is a lot of advertising about him and he has been elevated to a mythical status, still the pure facts prove that he was not unbeatable, like RIBOT or FRANKEL... Yes!!! :ThmbUp:

VeryOldMan
06-10-2015, 04:20 PM
BP - have you read this entire thread? I was responding to cj specifically and based on earlier respectful discussion.

Saratoga_Mike
06-10-2015, 04:31 PM
I think it is possible American Pharoah is as good as Secretariat. To this point, he has been at least close in my opinion.

Pure insanity. I thought you were joking and then I read your subsequent posts in this thread.

Not. Even. Close.

I think you're way too caught up in the hype, which is very unusual for you. He's a very nice horse, but Secretariat....no way. Of course my posting this almost ensures greatness for the balance of the yr, as I readily admit my handicapping opinion is vastly inferior to yours.

biggestal99
06-10-2015, 04:58 PM
Saying that American Pharoah isn't Secretariat isn't being critical of the Pharoah.

Bingo.

Winning 16 mostly top flight races vs the best of your generation.

Now is a different day horses run with raceday lasix.

Ap started what 8 times. Lol

The great one raced 9 times as a two year old and12 times as a 3 and raced 3 weeks yikes after his belmont

Nobody is insulting ap by saying the gold standard in us tbs in the last 50 years is way better than him.

Ap looks g0od in silver triple crown winners with seattle slew and affirmed.

Allan

Saratoga_Mike
06-10-2015, 05:01 PM
Andy Beyer has speculated that Secretariat's winning Beyer in the Belmont would have been close to 140. CJ has pointed out deeper modern-day tracks. I would point out that AP ran on Lasix and Secretariat did not.

cj
06-10-2015, 05:06 PM
Andy Beyer has speculated that Secretariat's winning Beyer in the Belmont would have been close to 140. CJ has pointed out deeper modern-day tracks. I would point out that AP ran on Lasix and Secretariat did not.


Sure, but all the horses do, so that wouldn't really effect figures.

cj
06-10-2015, 05:08 PM
Pure insanity. I thought you were joking and then I read your subsequent posts in this thread.

Not. Even. Close.

I think you're way too caught up in the hype, which is very unusual for you. He's a very nice horse, but Secretariat....no way. Of course my posting this almost ensures greatness for the balance of the yr, as I readily admit my handicapping opinion is vastly inferior to yours.

I'm saying he has accomplished as much to this point. Going forward, we'll see. He probably won't have a chance to run on grass, for example. But he is dominating the crop. If he does the same to older horses, well, he is right there in my book. It isn't his fault the game is different now and horses don't race as often.

JustRalph
06-10-2015, 05:14 PM
I'm saying he has accomplished as much to this point. Going forward, we'll see. He probably won't have a chance to run on grass, for example. But he is dominating the crop. If he does the same to older horses, well, he is right there in my book. It isn't his fault the game is different now and horses don't race as often.

I just can't get past the difference in the raw times. I know the tracks are hard to compare, but the fractions in The 73 Belmont are almost unbelievable if the actual footage didn't actually fit the clock.

If it was all on paper only, you would have to question the times. But when you watch it and see how the other horses fell apart, it makes sense.

In my mind, I can't put the two performances near each other, visually anyway.

burnsy
06-10-2015, 05:20 PM
I'll admit that I bet against him in the derby and I had a crummy triple crown streak this year, which isn't my usual MO. Burnsy is a facts kind of guy though, I detest (try to avoid) emotion because that's how one makes bad choices. Trying to compare these two horses at this point is a joke. Secretariat ran 8 times as a 2yo and won HOY, never happen again probably, the way these horses train today. He set at least 5 track records combined on both surfaces, I believe one of the turf ones was a worlds record at that time. Horses back then ran bruised and nicked...Secretariat was probably better at 90%, will Lebron sit out tomorrow night if his knee needs a brace? Lebron is Secretariat, AP is a really good race horse. There's dominating and then there's DOMINATING, AP is the first one and Secretariat was the latter.,,,,,so far anyway. He could win or run well even at 90%, at 100% Secretariat could go to levels that are one of a kind over both surfaces. That's raw talent.

Now here's where I really piss people off. I think Point Given was as good as AP, as far as Baffert horses go (so far). Look at his Preakness, Belmont, Haskell and Travers....he didn't get the big "Triple Hype" but watch the replays, particularly the Belmont and Travers he wins during that streak like one of the best. Hand ride jokes and 3 wide during the entire Belmont. Obviously AP is a great horse but he has more to do before its even a close comparison to one of the greatest. Give me a break.....what are people on these days? Because the internet is a barrel of laughs reality.

cj
06-10-2015, 05:30 PM
I just can't get past the difference in the raw times. I know the tracks are hard to compare, but the fractions in The 73 Belmont are almost unbelievable if the actual footage didn't actually fit the clock.

If it was all on paper only, you would have to question the times. But when you watch it and see how the other horses fell apart, it makes sense.

In my mind, I can't put the two performances near each other, visually anyway.

The fractions were affected too, tracks were just much harder with less cushion.

Grits
06-10-2015, 05:30 PM
I'm floored by this. Accomplished as much, Cj? By how many lengths?

What happened to your mantra, when you've often stated its difficult to compare horses across generations/eras?

Are you forming your opinion of American Pharoah, at this point in time, being as good as Secretariat on your figures? Your methods, variant, etc? As Ralph noted, how can anyone ignore, visually, the difference in the two horses?

One can't rewrite history, and sacrilege isn't the point at all. The point is pure performance on the racetrack. You feel this horse's records remain unbroken because he caught an era with a harder racing surface. You may not have many in your camp.

I know I cannot compare and argue with you, but this is one time that if you're proven wrong, hopefully, you'll come back to this statement you've made and admit it. Because this is off the charts. And this crowd, just like yourself, is bright enough not to wear Big Red Blinkers.

VeryOldMan
06-10-2015, 05:31 PM
Burnsy is a facts kind of guy

Third person - really? :)

I love this thread. AP gets credit in my book for winning the TC after a 37 year absence; but I'm not willing to put him in the "all time" great pending his future record. The fact that we're even discussing this issue is really cool!

cj
06-10-2015, 05:55 PM
I'm floored by this. Accomplished as much, Cj? By how many lengths?

What happened to your mantra, when you've often stated its difficult to compare horses across generations/eras?

Are you forming your opinion of American Pharoah, at this point in time, being as good as Secretariat on your figures? Your methods, variant, etc? As Ralph noted, how can anyone ignore, visually, the difference in the two horses?

One can't rewrite history, and sacrilege isn't the point at all. The point is pure performance on the racetrack. You feel this horse's records remain unbroken because he caught an era with a harder racing surface. You may not have many in your camp.

I know I cannot compare and argue with you, but this is one time that if you're proven wrong, hopefully, you'll come back to this statement you've made and admit it. Because this is off the charts. And this crowd, just like yourself, is bright enough not to wear Big Red Blinkers.


I've said speed wise. I can compare accomplishments.


2yo Eclipse check
Triple Crown check
Less losses check
Less wins check (negative one)

People are reading way too much into what I'm saying. I don't think you can compare races from this far apart. But accomplishment wise, what is the difference? Where Secretariat really drew away from others was the Belmont and after, not before.

What is the real difference in accomplishments to this point? I don't see much difference. Apparently that is blasphemy.

Bullet Plane
06-10-2015, 06:05 PM
The Secretariat crowd wants to suck the joy out of horseracing.

Everything has got to be about Secretariat!

Well, guess what?

I'm sick and tired of the Secretariat crap.

It's getting old...

We have got our own triple crown winner now...


Let's move on, it is 2015, for crying out loud!!

Saratoga_Mike
06-10-2015, 06:11 PM
Sure, but all the horses do, so that wouldn't really effect figures.

You said previously: "AP has had to run over deeper tracks than horses in 1970s" (very rough paraphrase). Assuming the track depth claim is correct (I'm sure you have researched the matter), it flatters the 2015 horse over the 1970s horse. Point to AP.

But the 1973 horse did not run on Lasix. You believe Lasix is beneficial to the performance of most horses (you said as much in another thread and I totally agree). The lack of Lasix flatters the 1973 horse's performance vs the 2015 horse's performance. Point to Sec.

Your above point is only relevant when comparing a 2015 horse to an "Age of Lasix" (1980ish forward) horse.

Saratoga_Mike
06-10-2015, 06:12 PM
The Secretariat crowd wants to suck the joy out of horseracing.

Everything has got to be about Secretariat!



Blame CJ he made the comparison. To be fair, he used the word "potentially," I believe.

Saratoga_Mike
06-10-2015, 06:14 PM
Now here's where I really piss people off. I think Point Given was as good as AP, as far as Baffert horses go (so far). Look at his Preakness, Belmont, Haskell and Travers....he didn't get the big "Triple Hype" but watch the replays, particularly the Belmont and Travers he wins during that streak like one of the best. Hand ride jokes and 3 wide during the entire Belmont. Obviously AP is a great horse but he has more to do before its even a close comparison to one of the greatest. Give me a break.....what are people on these days? Because the internet is a barrel of laughs reality.

Why would that upset anyone? It's a perfectly reasonable assertion.

VeryOldMan
06-10-2015, 06:21 PM
What is the real difference in accomplishments to this point? I don't see much difference. Apparently that is blasphemy.

The telemiter. Track records. Which stand to this day. That is a big deal to me. Your mileage varies.

Fager Fan
06-10-2015, 06:30 PM
Neither Cigar nor RA are in the same league as AP... Both of them were top level thoroughbreds but not in the class of AP...

I'm starting to think you're a leg-puller.

Fager Fan
06-10-2015, 06:50 PM
We did not see a 4yo campaign neither from MAN O WAR nor from SECRETARIAT. If AP goes on for the Quadruple Crown he will definitely be in the greatest league ever and will be the point of reference for the next century exactly like MOW and S were until now

There is no such thing as the quadruple crown.

VeryOldMan
06-10-2015, 07:02 PM
There is no such thing as the quadruple crown.

Settle down - if AP wins the Breeders Cup Classic after his Triple Crown he will be setting the modern standard for a Quadruple Crown.

He still has work to show us where he rates v. your man Dr. Fager (a true legend, IMO), Secretariat, Forego, Affirmed, Seattle Slew, Kelso, Spectacular Bid, Citation, etc., etc.

theotherside
06-10-2015, 07:02 PM
yes because he is the benchmark for greatness in a race horse.

theotherside
06-10-2015, 07:11 PM
what makes him maybe as good as Secretariat?because someday he may run as fast as Secretariat? from a speed standpoint which these are race horses right? he has not even suggested he can be as fast as Secretariat period. so what am i missing in this comparison? that said this horse truly can be one of the great ones but this comparison is way to premature.

DeltaLover
06-10-2015, 07:17 PM
There is no such thing as the quadruple crown.

Is going to exist by the end of the year!

Grits
06-10-2015, 07:19 PM
People are reading way too much into what I'm saying. I don't think you can compare races from this far apart. But accomplishment wise, what is the difference? Where Secretariat really drew away from others was the Belmont and after, not before.

http://www.secretariat.com/past-performances/

A refresher. The link is easier to post than my book's charts.

No, he had performed outstandingly, winning by terrific margins long before he ever rolled to the historical 31 length victory, Craig. But, you know all this.

Everyone went nuts when American Pharoah won Saturday, but all at once, you've gone against, exactly, what you've held fast to, for years. Why? When I look at the past performances of the two? I'll be honest, I don't see how they're comparable except to note, both, are now Triple Crown winners, running as two and three year olds.

Blasphemy has nothing to do with anything. You put yourself out on a limb with your statement, if the limb breaks under your weight, all I'm asking of you is to admit it. Come back and say it, if and when the time comes. No hedging. I'll do the same. I'll praise you, if this incredible colt goes on to win everything he enters, including the BCC.

classhandicapper
06-10-2015, 07:21 PM
I agree with most of this.

Where I don't agree is this crop. Heading into Louisville, with all the expectations, what were the odds that of the six horses to round out placings in the TC four would be without a G1 win? Half would be without so much as a G1 placing? Upstart didn't lift a hoof in Louisville, Dortmund clearly was over his top, Materiality finished dead last in the Belmont. Only one place finisher of the three had a G1 win to his credit. ONE. Who would have thought that?

IMO how Frosted runs at Saratoga will reflect back on a lot of things. If he does not win, maybe we need to reconsider certain assumptions.

I'll concede that a few better horses might have been over the top after the Derby, but then he blew out the Preakness and Belmont field.

I expect a freshened Dortmund, Firing Line, and Frosted to prove to be quite good and a few of the others to be fine. But like you said, we'll have to see.

classhandicapper
06-10-2015, 07:30 PM
I'm with CJ on this.

I think "times" are a bad way to make historic comparisons. The tracks, drug use (legal and illegal) and training methods change. Even the figures change or drift over time.

IMO accomplishments are the right way to go. Within that, you should also look at the accomplishments of each horse's competition and even their trips, the track biases that came into play etc... if you have replays and charts (or are old like me and actually saw the races hahaha).

I know speed figures are considered the "way, light, and truth" these days, but there are too many serious issues to make comparisons across eras.

DeltaLover
06-10-2015, 07:35 PM
I'm with CJ on this.

I think "times" are a bad way to make historic comparisons. The tracks, drug use (legal and illegal) and training methods change. Even the figures change or drift over time.

IMO accomplishments are the right way to go. Within that, you should also look at the accomplishments of each horse's competition and even their trips, biases etc... if you have replays and charts (or are old like me and actually saw the races hahaha).

I know speed figures are considered the "way, light, and truth" these days, but there are too many serious issues to make comparisons across eras.

I think the best way to make historic comparisons, is to rely on relative dominance over the contemporary best horses. Those who rely on speed figures or any other kind of numerical metric of the timing of the race, calculated within a time span of several decades apart, are simply involved into an impossible task..

classhandicapper
06-10-2015, 07:39 PM
I think the best way to make historic comparisons, is to rely on relative dominance over the contemporary best horses.

Agreed. That's part of what I meant by accomplishment.

Winning a Grade 1 matters, but Slew wiring Affirmed is different.

Winning a some Grades 1 matters, but crushing those Grade 1 fields is different.

DeltaLover
06-10-2015, 07:40 PM
Agreed. That's part of what I meant by accomplishment.

Winning a Grade 1 matters, but Slew wiring Affirmed is different.

Winning a some Grades 1 matters, but crushing those Grade 1 fields is different.

:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

This is the way to go!

VeryOldMan
06-10-2015, 07:46 PM
I think the best way to make historic comparisons, is to rely on relative dominance over the contemporary best horses. Those who rely on speed figures or any other kind of numerical metric of the timing of the race, calculated within a time span of several decades apart, are simply involved into an impossible task..

What about the simple numeric metric of time? Seconds, minutes, etc. Time doesn't change across decades.

Secretariat set several track and/or world records. Dr. Fager rates too. That is the gold standard to me. I would absolutely LOVE to see AP prove himself likewise.

DeltaLover
06-10-2015, 07:49 PM
What about the simple numeric metric of time? Seconds, minutes, etc. Time doesn't change across decades.

Secretariat set several track and/or world records. Dr. Fager rates too. That is the gold standard to me. I would absolutely LOVE to see AP prove himself likewise.

Time does not, but surfaces and genes do...

Raw Times are completely and globally useless for any kind of comparisons when it come to horse racing..

Fager Fan
06-10-2015, 07:54 PM
Is going to exist by the end of the year!

I hereby dub the Woodward, JCGC and Classic "The King's Crown."

Fager Fan
06-10-2015, 07:56 PM
Time does not, but surfaces and genes do...

Raw Times are completely and globally useless for any kind of comparisons when it come to horse racing..

Just how are you going to size up the competition? You have to go by something more than which pretty pony tickles your fancy.

Tall One
06-10-2015, 07:57 PM
The telemiter. Track records. Which stand to this day. That is a big deal to me. Your mileage varies.


:ThmbUp:


Many believe Personal Ensign was spectacular


She was.

thaskalos
06-10-2015, 08:02 PM
Agreed. That's part of what I meant by accomplishment.

Winning a Grade 1 matters, but Slew wiring Affirmed is different.

Winning a some Grades 1 matters, but crushing those Grade 1 fields is different.
Slew wired Affirmed...and American Pharoah wired Frosted. Same thing?

Valuist
06-10-2015, 08:08 PM
Everytime I see the acronym "AP", I still think of AP Indy.

VeryOldMan
06-10-2015, 08:10 PM
Raw Times are completely and globally useless for any kind of comparisons when it come to horse racing..
And here's where we completely part company. I think Secretariat's 2:24 in the Belmont, coupled with his record races in the KD and Preakness, prove his greatness.

Cratos
06-10-2015, 08:36 PM
Time does not, but surfaces and genes do...

Raw Times are completely and globally useless for any kind of comparisons when it come to horse racing..
Actual times ( raw times) are absolutely the best barometer of a horse's ability; everything else is conjecture based on the "if" condition.

Any scIencetist will always start with the actual because the "conditional' is based on whose adjustments do you believe and how competent is the adjustment.

AndyC
06-10-2015, 09:12 PM
Actual times ( raw times) are absolutely the best barometer of a horse's ability; everything else is conjecture based on the "if" condition.

Any scIencetist will always start with the actual because the "conditional' is based on whose adjustments do you believe and how competent is the adjustment.


I fail to see how raw times can be the best barometer as you suggest. So a $10K claimer at TUP who runs 107.50 for 6 furlongs is better than a Stakes horse who runs 109.00 at Belmont?

VeryOldMan
06-10-2015, 09:41 PM
I fail to see how raw times can be the best barometer as you suggest. So a $10K claimer at TUP who runs 107.50 for 6 furlongs is better than a Stakes horse who runs 109.00 at Belmont?

Straw man argument.

Raw time on track v. previous performances on the same track.

A horse that sets multiple track and/or world records rates highly in my book.

Secretariat and Dr. Fager did it.

That's a really high bar and not meant to dis American Pharoah - if he runs the table in the fall and runs some killer times, he joins elite company.

Regardless - if he has a great fall, he has the potential to set the current modern-day bar of greatness. What more can we ask for as fans of this sport?!

theotherside
06-10-2015, 10:12 PM
the injury was running head and head with big red through a 109 and change half

Fager Fan
06-10-2015, 10:13 PM
Straw man argument.

Raw time on track v. previous performances on the same track.

A horse that sets multiple track and/or world records rates highly in my book.

Secretariat and Dr. Fager did it.

That's a really high bar and not meant to dis American Pharoah - if he runs the table in the fall and runs some killer times, he joins elite company.

Regardless - if he has a great fall, he has the potential to set the current modern-day bar of greatness. What more can we ask for as fans of this sport?!

Does modern day bar mean dumbed down?

cj
06-10-2015, 10:42 PM
http://www.secretariat.com/past-performances/

A refresher. The link is easier to post than my book's charts.

No, he had performed outstandingly, winning by terrific margins long before he ever rolled to the historical 31 length victory, Craig. But, you know all this.

Everyone went nuts when American Pharoah won Saturday, but all at once, you've gone against, exactly, what you've held fast to, for years. Why? When I look at the past performances of the two? I'll be honest, I don't see how they're comparable except to note, both, are now Triple Crown winners, running as two and three year olds.

Blasphemy has nothing to do with anything. You put yourself out on a limb with your statement, if the limb breaks under your weight, all I'm asking of you is to admit it. Come back and say it, if and when the time comes. No hedging. I'll do the same. I'll praise you, if this incredible colt goes on to win everything he enters, including the BCC.

It's a deal! :)

cj
06-10-2015, 10:43 PM
The telemiter. Track records. Which stand to this day. That is a big deal to me. Your mileage varies.

There is a lot I don't know about racing, but I do know a lot about timing. I trust my mileage on this one.

Cratos
06-10-2015, 11:29 PM
I fail to see how raw times can be the best barometer as you suggest. So a $10K claimer at TUP who runs 107.50 for 6 furlongs is better than a Stakes horse who runs 109.00 at Belmont?
You are making the wrong comparison and the understanding shouldn't be in horseracing because horseracing is just a physical activity by an animal.

Your understanding should be in test measurement because a horserace is just a test of one horse's ability vs another horse given a set of conditions.

Therefore if a bottomline claimer runs the same distance as a stakes horse in a faster time on the same day, the actuals are the best indication of what each horse did.

The adjusted actuals are an indication of "what" should have or could happen given different conditions, but those conditions might never occur again and even if they did where is the evidence of repeat effort?

Therefore you always start with "actual results" and adjusted actuals becomes a probabilistic derivative of actuals based on attained knowledge and competence; in other words you can only predict the future, but you can actually document the past and that is what "actuals" are, the documented past.

Cratos
06-10-2015, 11:40 PM
Straw man argument.

Raw time on track v. previous performances on the same track.

A horse that sets multiple track and/or world records rates highly in my book.

Secretariat and Dr. Fager did it.

That's a really high bar and not meant to dis American Pharoah - if he runs the table in the fall and runs some killer times, he joins elite company.

Regardless - if he has a great fall, he has the potential to set the current modern-day bar of greatness. What more can we ask for as fans of this sport?!
I am with you on this one and I had high praise (and still do) for American Pharoah after his Belmont Stakes victory, but to put him in same class as Secretariat at this point, I don't see it.

classhandicapper
06-11-2015, 09:29 AM
Slew wired Affirmed...and American Pharoah wired Frosted. Same thing?

LOL. Obviously not.

At this exact point in his career, Slew was being trashed by some big names in the industry because his times weren't fast and his crop was weak. It was like no one was actually watching the shear brilliance of the horse and trips he was overcoming along the way. It was blatantly obvious he was "different". He eventually demonstrated that to the doubters.

With American Pharoah, I'm of the opinion that you don't get hyped strongly by Bob Baffert (who knows a thing or two about top horses), then go out and earn the 2yo championship against a very good group, go 6-6 on dirt, toy with the competition, and win the Triple Crown by accident. This horse has both brilliant speed and excellent stamina. That alone makes him unique.

He's got 3 more races to demonstrate whether he belongs with the true immortals, but IMO he's already demonstrated he's a special talent and very worthy of the title of Triple Crown winner.

DeltaLover
06-11-2015, 09:43 AM
Any scIencetist will always start with the actual because the "conditional' is based on whose adjustments do you believe and how competent is the adjustment.

what exactly is a scIencetist ??

classhandicapper
06-11-2015, 09:47 AM
The physical makeup of dirt tracks is different now than it was years ago. They they have also changed the cushion depths to make the tracks safer.

Years ago when I used to go to Belmont there was a small chart posted near the entrance that gave you the cushion depth at various locations around the track. I used to look at that chart every time I went there hoping to gain some insights into whether the rail was going to be bad (a frequent occurrence at Belmont in those days). I used to see depths of 3, 3 1/4, 3 1/2 all the time. I don't look at that data anymore. I'm not even sure where it's posted. But as time passed depths like 4, 4 1/4, and 4 1/2 became the norm. For the record, I don't know what's normal now.

I just don't see how you can use raw times to compare horses when both the composition and depths of the tracks are changing.

Besides, you don't need a clock to know that Secretariat's Belmont was freakish. He crushed his main opponent in a savage duel going 12F and kept drawing off from the rest of the field. That's not normal. 31 lengths is insane.

FantasticDan
06-11-2015, 09:54 AM
AP and Sec's Belmonts, side by side:

http://www.wsj.com/video/american-pharoah-vs-secretariat-who-would-win/513B9634-15E8-4108-B3F7-DEB54AF09F4B.html?mod=e2fbvideo

PaceAdvantage
06-11-2015, 10:09 AM
I'm starting to think you're a leg-puller.I always thought Cigar was overrated...but that's because I'm a 10000000000% fanboy of Holy Bull.

NY BRED
06-11-2015, 10:26 AM
ONE SLIGHT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN BOTH HORSES WINNING
THE TRIPLE CROWN AND COMPARING THE BELMONT
FINAL TIMES.




A: WHEN SECRETARIAT WON VIA OPEN LENGTHS, THE BREEDERS
CUP DID NOT EXIST. I BELIEVE BIG RED WOULD HAVE BEEN GEARED DOWN IF THE BC EXISTED.

FURTHER, AP COULD HAVE BEEN PUSHED TO GET CLOSE OR BEAT THE
THE RECORD TIME.
I WOULD BELIEVE THE JOCK AND OWNERS COULD CARE LESS ABOUT
THIS COMPARISON, MUGHT BE INTERESTING TO SEE AP'S FINAL
#'S IN THE HASKELL OR TRAVERS TO DETERMINE WHO IS THE FASTER
T BRED .

Greyfox
06-11-2015, 10:57 AM
AP and Sec's Belmonts, side by side:

http://www.wsj.com/video/american-pharoah-vs-secretariat-who-would-win/513B9634-15E8-4108-B3F7-DEB54AF09F4B.html?mod=e2fbvideo

Excellent video. Thank you for posting that FantasticDan. :ThmbUp:

Grits
06-11-2015, 11:15 AM
It's a deal! :)

Good, I'll be right here. Hopefully.

I have more respect for you and your figures than anyone in the industry, and you know this. Doesn't matter who the competition is--Ragozin, Jerry Brown, Beyer, whomever, you're there with them. (I didn't note that damn $79.50 winner and exacta in last Friday's 5th for nothing in your TFUS weekly review thread. Get it? Its about respect.)

However, when history is written, it is not based on a speed or pace figure. It is based on....time. Reported in TIME. Where's Jerry Brown's opinion in a history book? No where!

Just as has been noted, American Pharoah ran his last Belmont quarter in a faster time. Its noted, too, by Bill Nack that Secretariat ran each quarter of the Derby in a faster time. Pace figures are not getting into the news reports. And that's ok, as most wouldn't understand them anyway. Only those of us who know racing get it.

So, when the decades pass....TIME, like it or not, does matter. It is how we chronicle speed.

The body of work--his races--will speak, until American Pharoah's retirement. His accomplishments may be great, but time is measured. And track records are remembered.

I did find one video that's still pretty damn inspiring and it's hard not to acknowledge why this horse is considered other worldly. I won't take a thing away from AP, and I wouldn't trade anything for being between that 1/4 pole and that finish line on Saturday. NOT A THING could compare to the excitement and the joy of watching AP. Still, he has his work cut out for him if one is going to compare the two horses across eras.

tTC5yrGX39k

This video? Thank goodness, it's better than the movie.

klP5dwGh88U

Meanwhile, let me thank you again for the $79.50 winner. He and Chad's, Slumber, paid for my week in NY. ;)

Cratos
06-11-2015, 11:45 AM
what exactly is a scIencetist ??


It is a misspell and it should have been SCIENTIST, but if that is your best comment, I understand your lack of science untderstanding.

DeltaLover
06-11-2015, 12:48 PM
It is a misspell and it should have been SCIENTIST, but if that is your best comment, I understand your lack of science untderstanding.

I see..

How about this new word untderstanding? I guess it is due to my lack of science that I am clueless about it!

:bang: :bang: :bang:

thaskalos
06-11-2015, 01:14 PM
LOL. Obviously not.

At this exact point in his career, Slew was being trashed by some big names in the industry because his times weren't fast and his crop was weak. It was like no one was actually watching the shear brilliance of the horse and trips he was overcoming along the way. It was blatantly obvious he was "different". He eventually demonstrated that to the doubters.


I can't really be sure about this, because I wasn't part of the game at that time...but I doubt that Slew had many doubters at "this exact point in his career"...which is to say, AFTER winning the Triple Crown as an undefeated horse. That had never been done before, as I recall. Slew's detractors probably scattered after the TC...because the 1977 Triple Crown was Slew's baptism by fire...where he met the sort of REAL pressure that, as of yet, American Pharoah is unaware of.

Slew's TC left no doubt that he was one of the ones...IMO.

DeltaLover
06-11-2015, 01:29 PM
I can't really be sure about this, because I wasn't part of the game at that time...but I doubt that Slew had many doubters at "this exact point in his career"...which is to say, AFTER winning the Triple Crown as an undefeated horse. That had never been done before, as I recall. Slew's detractors probably scattered after the TC...because the 1977 Triple Crown was Slew's baptism by fire...where he met the sort of REAL pressure that, as of yet, American Pharoah is unaware of.

Slew's TC left no doubt that he was one of the ones...IMO.

Of course. Andy Beyer was one of those who did not believe in the greatness of Seattle Slew (exactly as he is today with American Pharoah), just to be proven miserably wrong..

History repeats itself

thaskalos
06-11-2015, 01:48 PM
Of course. Andy Beyer was one of those who did not believe in the greatness of Seattle Slew (exactly as he is today with American Pharoah), just to be proven miserably wrong..

History repeats itself
I personally think that YOU will be proven more wrong about American Pharoah than you consider Beyer to be. You are seeing something in the Pharoah that isn't there. There is no way that this horse deserves to be mentioned in the same breath with Secretariat and Seattle Slew, when it comes to "Greatness"...not even at this stage of their respective careers.

dilanesp
06-11-2015, 02:31 PM
Of course. Andy Beyer was one of those who did not believe in the greatness of Seattle Slew (exactly as he is today with American Pharoah), just to be proven miserably wrong..

History repeats itself

I'm really sick of people bashing on Beyer for this.

First of all, he admitted he was wrong. How many people do this? How many of the people who criticize him have ever admitted that one of their publicly stated opinions is wrong?

Second, his opinion was entirely defensible at the time. Ever looked at Seattle Slew's form going into the Derby? He was 6 for 6, but he'd never really been tested. Particularly in the Preakness, it looked like he was going to face adversity for the first time in his career. Beyer picked Cormorant. He was wrong. Slew passed the test with flying colors. But it was totally reasonable to say "this horse has done everything right but has never really been tested; I'll bet against him". Handicappers make this sort of call all the time.

Third, Seattle Slew really WAS vulnerable. We know this because after the Derby he shipped out to Hollywood Park on the glorious day of July 3, 1977, and learned a thing or two about the difference between early speed in the east and early speed in California. He got smoked by JO Tobin who went out in very fast fractions, and Slew simply could not keep up.

So it wasn't like the opinion that Slew was vulnerable was definitively proven wrong-- it just didn't get realized until after the TC was over.

Andrew Beyer has written a ton of insightful stuff about horse racing. Saying that he's not credible because he got Slew wrong is silly.

DeltaLover
06-11-2015, 02:56 PM
I personally think that YOU will be proven more wrong about American Pharoah than you consider Beyer to be. You are seeing something in the Pharoah that isn't there. There is no way that this horse deserves to be mentioned in the same breath with Secretariat and Seattle Slew, when it comes to "Greatness"...not even at this stage of their respective careers.

Thask, I really do not think that I can be proven wrong, simply because I do not make absolute predictions about the future of the horse.

I was certainly proven correct (in contrary to YOU, Beyer and many others) about my estimate of AP becoming the next TC winner.

Now, what I am saying, is that assuming that the horse will continue to maturity without any problems, he has a valid possibility to become one of the greatest ever.

classhandicapper
06-11-2015, 03:00 PM
I can't really be sure about this, because I wasn't part of the game at that time...but I doubt that Slew had many doubters at "this exact point in his career"...which is to say, AFTER winning the Triple Crown as an undefeated horse. That had never been done before, as I recall. Slew's detractors probably scattered after the TC...because the 1977 Triple Crown was Slew's baptism by fire...where he met the sort of REAL pressure that, as of yet, American Pharoah is unaware of.

Slew's TC left no doubt that he was one of the ones...IMO.

He still had doubters.

Some people from that era STILL think he was the best of a terrible group of 3yos that improved a lot at 4. It's actually even worse than that. Some people still doubted him after he wired Affirmed and Exceller because he got loose on them. He didn't shut everyone up for good until the Jockey Club Gold Cup.

It's an interesting phenomenon. It impacts me at times also. Once people make up their mind about a horse and take a strong public stand, it's sometimes tough to reverse course and accept that you were wrong despite large and growing evidence to the contrary. People keep looking for ways to explain it all away.

classhandicapper
06-11-2015, 03:09 PM
Third, Seattle Slew really WAS vulnerable. We know this because after the Derby he shipped out to Hollywood Park on the glorious day of July 3, 1977, and learned a thing or two about the difference between early speed in the east and early speed in California. He got smoked by JO Tobin who went out in very fast fractions, and Slew simply could not keep up.


Seattle Slew went to California AGAINST the recommendation of Billy Turner who thought the colt desperately needed a rest after the Triple Crown. He was running back just a few weeks after the Belmont. Turner has elaborated on this in interviews. I think it's fairly clear Slew was not 100% in California. The rest of the horse's record supports Turner's assertions.

(none of this is to take away from JO Tobin who was terrific that day)

PaceAdvantage
06-11-2015, 03:10 PM
This is pretty much how the whole Zenyatta thing went...only now I'm on the other side of the argument...because the only leg to stand on for those who look to downgrade AP AT THIS POINT IN HIS CAREER is the speed figure angle.

Most people were in pretty good agreement that this was an excellent crop of 3yos going into the Triple Crown races. But now that one has emerged far superior to all others, suddenly, crop not so good anymore.

JustRalph
06-11-2015, 03:16 PM
This is pretty much how the whole Zenyatta thing went...only now I'm on the other side of the argument...because the only leg to stand on for those who look to downgrade AP AT THIS POINT IN HIS CAREER is the speed figure angle.

Most people were in pretty good agreement that this was an excellent crop of 3yos going into the Triple Crown races. But now that one has emerged far superior to all others, suddenly, crop not so good anymore.

I like this side of the argument. The way the horse won the Belmont was visually very impressive. I don't think he even got close to his top gear. He had his ears pricked, doing it easily. I am inclined to believe that the best thing that happen to him was having to really work in the Derby. I think he really needed that race, and it came at the perfect time.

Watching the race for about the 20th time and it looks more like a workout. Not a full blown race at all. Sometimes you have to believe what you see

classhandicapper
06-11-2015, 03:19 PM
This is pretty much how the whole Zenyatta thing went...only now I'm on the other side of the argument...because the only leg to stand on for those who look to downgrade AP AT THIS POINT IN HIS CAREER is the speed figure angle.


As valuable as speed figures can be to handicappers, IMO they can be misleading when people accept them too literally. They are prone to error (especially over time) and most agree that trips, pace, etc... can have a huge impact. Plus, sometimes horses win with plenty in reserve even if they were asked in the stretch.

dilanesp
06-11-2015, 03:21 PM
Seattle Slew went to California AGAINST the recommendation of Billy Turner who thought the colt desperately needed a rest after the Triple Crown. He was running back just a few weeks after the Belmont. Turner has elaborated on this in interviews. I think it's fairly clear Slew was not 100% in California. The rest of the horse's record supports Turner's assertions.

(none of this is to take away from JO Tobin who was terrific that day)

Class, I was around back then, and when I first started hearing this stuff peddled about Turner supposedly objecting (years later), I went back and looked at the media coverage at the time. Turner repeatedly talked to the California press, repeatedly said the horse was ready to run, and said nothing either pre- OR post-race about any recommendation that the horse not run.

It is clear he wasn't 100 percent in California, but it's also clear that as Shoemaker said, he wasn't beating JO Tobin THAT day anyway.

I suspect what happened is that Billy Turner, who was fired by the Taylors for good cause (he was a drunk), lashed out at the owners after the fact. But whatever, there's no contemporaneous evidence of an objection (as there was when Majestic Prince ran in the Belmont against Longden's desires).

Robert Fischer
06-11-2015, 03:21 PM
This is pretty much how the whole Zenyatta thing went...only now I'm on the other side of the argument...because the only leg to stand on for those who look to downgrade AP AT THIS POINT IN HIS CAREER is the speed figure angle.

Most people were in pretty good agreement that this was an excellent crop of 3yos going into the Triple Crown races. But now that one has emerged far superior to all others, suddenly, crop not so good anymore.

People will argue about anything.

Particularly once they've publicly written/committed to their stance.

dilanesp
06-11-2015, 03:25 PM
As valuable as speed figures can be to handicappers, IMO they can be misleading when people accept them too literally. They are prone to error (especially over time) and most agree that trips, pace, etc... can have a huge impact. Plus, sometimes horses win with plenty in reserve even if they were asked in the stretch.

The big thing about speed figures is that they were never intended to measure whether a horse was "great". They are a very good handicapping tool, but there's no reason to think there's a constant baseline of speed figures from year to year.

FWIW, though I am not going to declare AP any sort of a great horse based on his abbreviated career, I thought his Belmont was a monster performance.

DeltaLover
06-11-2015, 03:28 PM
The big thing about speed figures is that they were never intended to measure whether a horse was "great".

:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

Good posting

RXB
06-11-2015, 03:28 PM
Not all horses are mature enough to win at 10 furlongs or 9.5 furlongs in May; and some don't develop much after the spring of their 3 year old year. Horses like John Henry, Cigar, Curlin, Alysheba and Slew O Gold were all great horses. And all those horses ran giant races in the fall. The Triple Crown races are overhyped because they are basically the only races the general public acknowledges. The public doesn't care about the BC Classic, the Met Mile or Pacific Classic.

Amen to every word of this.

thaskalos
06-11-2015, 03:45 PM
This is pretty much how the whole Zenyatta thing went...only now I'm on the other side of the argument...because the only leg to stand on for those who look to downgrade AP AT THIS POINT IN HIS CAREER is the speed figure angle.

Most people were in pretty good agreement that this was an excellent crop of 3yos going into the Triple Crown races. But now that one has emerged far superior to all others, suddenly, crop not so good anymore.
The speed figure angle isn't the only debating point when assessing the "greatness" of American Pharoah, IMO.

I don't pretend to be as accomplished in trip handicapping as some of the other players here may be...but I saw a horse in the Derby who sat behind dueling leaders, and then was put to a stiff drive to prevail...while registering a mild closing fraction.

In the Preakness, I too was impressed with the quality of AP's performance...but I couldn't overlook the fact that the late thunderstorm which passed by the track had left in its wake a racing surface which has historically been regarded as highly beneficial to horses who assume early leads.

I said before the Belmont that the Pharoah would need oxygen during the race's last quarter...and I couldn't have been more wrong. But a trip handicapper cannot be blamed for raising an eyebrow when he saw the front-runner run unmolested during approximate opening fractions of 24:00, 49:00, 1:14. Yes...he finished in an impressive manner. But the finish in a race can only be fully understood when viewed in the context that only the careful review of the earlier stages can provide.

IMO...the trip handicappers must also have certain questions about the "greatness" of the Pharoah. It can't be just the speed figure guys alone.

Robert Fischer
06-11-2015, 03:55 PM
You've got to be able to see more than that with trips that other horses ran huge against-the-grain and would clearly beat AP, had they ran an equal trip.

Otherwise, you end up in a position of trying to penalize a horse for having more tactical ability and talent than the others.

thaskalos
06-11-2015, 03:59 PM
You've got to be able to see more than that with trips that other horses ran huge against-the-grain and would clearly beat AP, had they ran an equal trip.

Otherwise, you end up in a position of trying to penalize a horse for having more tactical ability and talent than the others.
As I said...I may not be as accomplished at trip handicapping as some of the others here...

classhandicapper
06-11-2015, 04:42 PM
People will argue about anything.



I disagree. :lol:

tucker6
06-11-2015, 04:43 PM
I can't really be sure about this, because I wasn't part of the game at that time...but I doubt that Slew had many doubters at "this exact point in his career"...which is to say, AFTER winning the Triple Crown as an undefeated horse. That had never been done before, as I recall. Slew's detractors probably scattered after the TC...because the 1977 Triple Crown was Slew's baptism by fire...where he met the sort of REAL pressure that, as of yet, American Pharoah is unaware of.

Slew's TC left no doubt that he was one of the ones...IMO.
we're about the same age, but I do recall Slew being trashed, mainly due to his comparisons with the previous TC winner. There's always a contrarian trying to look sharp.

classhandicapper
06-11-2015, 04:51 PM
Class, I was around back then, and when I first started hearing this stuff peddled about Turner supposedly objecting (years later), I went back and looked at the media coverage at the time. Turner repeatedly talked to the California press, repeatedly said the horse was ready to run, and said nothing either pre- OR post-race about any recommendation that the horse not run.



That's a hotly debated topic, but I'm fairly certain he would be smart enough to keep that kind of thing private, assuming he wanted to continue training the horse. It's not like you can go to CA and publicly say "my horse desperately needs a rest, but my owners are forcing me to do this".

It was fairly standard at the time to give a horse a break after the Belmont and that was the plan with Slew. That much I know. It wasn't until later that incentives were put in place to try to lure Slew to CA. So they went.

Turner trains a few horses for a friend of mine. Next time my friend invites me to the paddock I'll ask Turner. ;)

classhandicapper
06-11-2015, 04:58 PM
The speed figure angle isn't the only debating point when assessing the "greatness" of American Pharoah, IMO.


He hasn't had any really tough trips yet that I am aware of, but he hasn't done anything wrong yet either. So far he's undefeated on dirt, has shown brilliant speed, excellent stamina, is versatile enough to rate, and won the Triple Crown. That's a good start. ;)

Pensacola Pete
06-11-2015, 05:13 PM
Comparing the two is like comparing Nicholas Cage to Spencer Tracy.

biggestal99
06-11-2015, 05:16 PM
Excellent video. Thank you for posting that FantasticDan. :ThmbUp:

How bout secretariat,s and coach lage videos side by side coach lage did a 227.

Allan

thaskalos
06-11-2015, 05:51 PM
He hasn't had any really tough trips yet that I am aware of, but he hasn't done anything wrong yet either. So far he's undefeated on dirt, has shown brilliant speed, excellent stamina, is versatile enough to rate, and won the Triple Crown. That's a good start. ;)

Yes, CH...but we are talking about comparisons to Secretariat here. I just got through watching Secretariat's Triple Crown performances one more time, to refresh my memory...and Secretariat seemed to me as if he was from another planet.

Bullet Plane
06-11-2015, 06:30 PM
Yes, CH...but we are talking about comparisons to Secretariat here. I just got through watching Secretariat's Triple Crown performances one more time, to refresh my memory...and Secretariat seemed to me as if he was from another planet.


Why don't you compare Man O War to Secretariat?

Look at the film.

Compare the fractions...

When you have determined it is ridiculous to do so, then you can get off the schmaltzy Secretariat B.S. and start talking real-life, today handicapping.

thaskalos
06-11-2015, 06:47 PM
Why don't you compare Man O War to Secretariat?

Look at the film.

Compare the fractions...

When you have determined it is ridiculous to do so, then you can get off the schmaltzy Secretariat B.S. and start talking real-life, today handicapping.
I would rather not engage in this 'schmatzy Secretariat B.S.". But how can I ignore this B.S. once it begins?

classhandicapper
06-11-2015, 07:49 PM
Yes, CH...but we are talking about comparisons to Secretariat here. I just got through watching Secretariat's Triple Crown performances one more time, to refresh my memory...and Secretariat seemed to me as if he was from another planet.

I'm willing to compare the two.

I think Secretariat had the superior Triple Crown campaign because of the ease with which he won the Derby/Preakness after making some "other worldy" moves. Then he topped it off with an incredible performance in the Belmont. I doubt anyone will top that sequence because of the Belmont.

Before that sequence I don't think he did anything that would make me think he was clearly better than American Pharoah. He lost the Wood and I don't think he was dominating an especially good group before that or behind Sham (Forego got really good later). After the Triple Crown he continued to run extremely well, but he did lose twice.

He's unquestionably one of the greatest horses of the modern era.

When AP is finished with his 3yo campaign we'll know more about him.

I don't have any problem with people thinking Secretariat was better than AP to this point. I have a problem with people in any way diminishing AP because of some speed figure that suggests he's slow or because he happened to get loose in the Belmont. IMO it's total bulldinky and balderdash. Speed figures are prone to error and don't translate across years and sometimes great horses get easy trips.

This horse is a crazy good 3yo. He's done nothing wrong and a lot of things very right. He made my wallet lighter along the way. :lol:

I'm really hoping he stays sound and develops further because it's going to be loads of fun if he does.

tucker6
06-11-2015, 08:26 PM
sometimes great horses get easy trips.

Those six words are important to note.

Relwob Owner
06-11-2015, 08:36 PM
Those six words are important to note.


Agreed. It comes to mind when people try to shoot holes in AP with the whole "he hasn't gone through any adversity" angle. His running style and ability to adapt make it so he simply doesn't encounter much adversity, and to me, that is one of his many strengths. As far as the AP vs Secretariat comparison, I agree with those who say we will know more by year's end but at this point, I can't see AP being close to Secretariat.

tucker6
06-11-2015, 08:41 PM
Agreed. It comes to mind when people try to shoot holes in AP with the whole "he hasn't gone through any adversity" angle. His running style and ability to adapt make it so he simply doesn't encounter much adversity, and to me, that is one of his many strengths. As far as the AP vs Secretariat comparison, I agree with those who say we will know more by year's end but at this point, I can't see AP being close to Secretariat.
To me, the bolded is the only fair comparison to Secretariat at this point. His versatility reminds me of Secretariat quite a bit. Not as good overall, but in the broader context very similar.

Relwob Owner
06-11-2015, 08:57 PM
To me, the bolded is the only fair comparison to Secretariat at this point. His versatility reminds me of Secretariat quite a bit. Not as good overall, but in the broader context very similar.


I'm with you. We gotta stop agreeing like this......

Gonna be fun to watch if he runs through the end of the year.

tucker6
06-11-2015, 08:59 PM
I'm with you. We gotta stop agreeing like this......

Gonna be fun to watch if he runs through the end of the year.
can you talk to my girlfriend?? :cool:

Relwob Owner
06-11-2015, 09:13 PM
can you talk to my girlfriend?? :cool:


:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

Cratos
06-11-2015, 09:55 PM
I'm willing to compare the two.

I think Secretariat had the superior Triple Crown campaign because of the ease with which he won the Derby/Preakness after making some "other worldy" moves. Then he topped it off with an incredible performance in the Belmont. I doubt anyone will top that sequence because of the Belmont.

Before that sequence I don't think he did anything that would make me think he was clearly better than American Pharoah. He lost the Wood and I don't think he was dominating an especially good group before that or behind Sham (Forego got really good later). After the Triple Crown he continued to run extremely well, but he did lose twice.

He's unquestionably one of the greatest horses of the modern era.

When AP is finished with his 3yo campaign we'll know more about him.

I don't have any problem with people thinking Secretariat was better than AP to this point. I have a problem with people in any way diminishing AP because of some speed figure that suggests he's slow or because he happened to get loose in the Belmont. IMO it's total bulldinky and balderdash. Speed figures are prone to error and don't translate across years and sometimes great horses get easy trips.

This horse is a crazy good 3yo. He's done nothing wrong and a lot of things very right. He made my wallet lighter along the way. :lol:

I'm really hoping he stays sound and develops further because it's going to be loads of fun if he does.
Please stop trying to make a case for American Pharoah by downing Secretariat.

Secretariat before the TC races won HOTY as a 2yo against horses like his older stable mate, Riva Ridge, won 10 of 11 starts of which 8 were stakes; and ran a winning mile in 1:33 and change.

People who are attempting to make the comparison between Secretariat and American Pharoah are welcome to do so, but as the late turf writer, Charles Hatton wrote at the time, ,"the only comparison to Big Red is to himself."

Also Forego never "got good"; he was good from the beginning, but he was in with what many historians said at the time was the best class of 3yos since the class of Bold Ruler.

Besides Secretariat and Forego in that 3yo class there were horses like Step Nicely, Shecky Greene, and Sham to name a few; and Dalhia, the tremendous filly was in that 3yo class.

Incidentally, I had my picture taken in the winning circle with Forego at Aqueduct.

Fager Fan
06-11-2015, 10:00 PM
I always thought Cigar was overrated...but that's because I'm a 10000000000% fanboy of Holy Bull.

No problem with that. He was a fabulous horse. Maybe underrated.

classhandicapper
06-12-2015, 09:59 AM
Please stop trying to make a case for American Pharoah by downing Secretariat.

Secretariat before the TC races won HOTY as a 2yo against horses like his older stable mate, Riva Ridge, won 10 of 11 starts of which 8 were stakes; and ran a winning mile in 1:33 and change.

People who are attempting to make the comparison between Secretariat and American Pharoah are welcome to do so, but as the late turf writer, Charles Hatton wrote at the time, ,"the only comparison to Big Red is to himself."

Also Forego never "got good"; he was good from the beginning, but he was in with what many historians said at the time was the best class of 3yos since the class of Bold Ruler.

Besides Secretariat and Forego in that 3yo class there were horses like Step Nicely, Shecky Greene, and Sham to name a few; and Dalhia, the tremendous filly was in that 3yo class.

Incidentally, I had my picture taken in the winning circle with Forego at Aqueduct.

Where did I down Secretariat?

I called him "unquestionably one of the greatest horses of the modern era".

The point I was making was clear.

IMO, Secretariat's Triple Crown run was superior, but we haven't gotten to AP's post Triple Crown run yet. He's still lightly raced. So let's give AP a chance to reveal what he can or cannot do before putting "him" down.

Secretariat's record is already immortal.

PS: If you think the Forego that Secretariat beat in the Derby was the same Forego that became one the greatest horses I ever saw, you are out of your mind.

biggestal99
06-12-2015, 12:21 PM
Agreed. It comes to mind when people try to shoot holes in AP with the whole "he hasn't gone through any adversity" angle. His running style and ability to adapt make it so he simply doesn't encounter much adversity, and to me, that is one of his many strengths. As far as the AP vs Secretariat comparison, I agree with those who say we will know more by year's end but at this point, I can't see AP being close to Secretariat.

I subscribe to the theory that we don,t yet what hes beat this year until this years 3s start facing older.

How do you think ap would have done in the met?

Allan

Relwob Owner
06-12-2015, 12:34 PM
I subscribe to the theory that we don,t yet what hes beat this year until this years 3s start facing older.

How do you think ap would have done in the met?

Allan

Honestly, how he would have done in the Met is a tough question and I hadn't given it much thought. If he would have trained up to it at this same point in his career, I think he would have done well, having sat off of that hot pace and made a move similar to his Derby run. His Beyers going in, if memory serves, put him a little behind the best of those who ran but I think he would have been competitive at the very least.

cj
06-12-2015, 02:51 PM
Also Forego never "got good"; he was good from the beginning, but he was in with what many historians said at the time was the best class of 3yos since the class of Bold Ruler.



This is just silly. Of course he got much better towards the end of his three year old season. The PPs don't lie. He was a good horse, but he got much better. Being a well beaten fourth in the Derby doesn't mean the horses was a star at the time, not even close. Plenty of horses have won or placed in the Derby that were nothing special then or later. Forego was special, it just took a while.

cj
06-12-2015, 02:51 PM
PS: If you think the Forego that Secretariat beat in the Derby was the same Forego that became one the greatest horses I ever saw, you are out of your mind.

Didn't see this before I posted...spot on.

cj
06-12-2015, 02:54 PM
I subscribe to the theory that we don,t yet what hes beat this year until this years 3s start facing older.

How do you think ap would have done in the met?

Allan

I'm sure if that was the goal he'd have done very well, especially considering the weight break he would get as a 3yo. Sadly, you don't see 3yos in the Met Mile any longer. It was always an angle I loved.

Honour and Glory
Dixie Brass
Holy Bull
Gulch
Conquistador Cielo

Etc.

dilanesp
06-12-2015, 04:55 PM
I'm sure if that was the goal he'd have done very well, especially considering the weight break he would get as a 3yo. Sadly, you don't see 3yos in the Met Mile any longer. It was always an angle I loved.

Honour and Glory
Dixie Brass
Holy Bull
Gulch
Conquistador Cielo

Etc.

Having the Met Mile on Belmont day is very bad for that. On Memorial Day, it's a great prep for the Belmont actually-- the 3 year old gets a huge weight break.

Arts and Letters did it too.

dilanesp
06-12-2015, 04:57 PM
This is just silly. Of course he got much better towards the end of his three year old season. The PPs don't lie. He was a good horse, but he got much better. Being a well beaten fourth in the Derby doesn't mean the horses was a star at the time, not even close. Plenty of horses have won or placed in the Derby that were nothing special then or later. Forego was special, it just took a while.

Correct. Obviously, Secretariat was really, really good, so I don't want to imply otherwise, but Secretariat would have had real trouble (as did everyone in the handicap division) with the Forego that developed later on.

It's like pointing to a horse who beat Cigar as a 3 year old and saying how great that was.

BlueChip@DRF
06-12-2015, 04:59 PM
Correct. Obviously, Secretariat was really, really good, so I don't want to imply otherwise, but Secretariat would have had real trouble (as did everyone in the handicap division) with the Forego that developed later on.

It's like pointing to a horse who beat Cigar as a 3 year old and saying how great that was.

Or who beat AP in his 1st start. :cool:

raybo
06-12-2015, 05:07 PM
AP and Secretariat.

Lots of different arguments, for and against, both horses, but what I know myself: if you split the Belmont fractions between what AP ran and what Secretariat ran, I know for sure that Secretariat completes the 1 1/2m even much easier than he did, and comes home much faster than he did, which was very quick considering his fractions, but I do not know if AP would have even won the Belmont, much less come home in 24+.

The surface was harder, and thus faster for Secretariat? Probably but we don't really know for sure (supposedly the cushion is deeper now but what about wind, humidity, air density, stress caused by pressure from other horses, etc., etc.. More than 2 1/2 seconds in final time is a whole lot to make up simply by the difference of a couple of inches of cushion.

IMO, anyone who even attempts to say that AP is nearly the race horse that Secretariat was is going way out on a limb, so far out that I doubt that limb would support the added weight of the BS.

If we could somehow put them on the same track, in the same race, under the same scenario of trying to win the Triple Crown at Belmont Park, with both of them in prime racing condition, there would only be one winner, and I am really sure which one that would be, Secretariat by at least 2 seconds and probably more if Secretariat ran only as fast as AP could run early. Give Secretariat those normal fractions and he'd run away from AP late.

ILovetheInner
06-12-2015, 06:32 PM
Where did I down Secretariat?

I called him "unquestionably one of the greatest horses of the modern era".

The point I was making was clear.

IMO, Secretariat's Triple Crown run was superior, but we haven't gotten to AP's post Triple Crown run yet. He's still lightly raced. So let's give AP a chance to reveal what he can or cannot do before putting "him" down.

Secretariat's record is already immortal.

PS: If you think the Forego that Secretariat beat in the Derby was the same Forego that became one the greatest horses I ever saw, you are out of your mind.

Forego started his legend in earnest late in his three year old year, but an interesting piece of racing lore is that he was actually The Blood Horse's pick to win the KYD in 1973. But he was a mammoth thing of a horse and had to grow into himself more. It was not yet his time, but he wasn't some late year surprise. Plenty knew he was going to be something.

That makes him very much a point of this conversation, however, as when we are looking at the TC we are looking at the precocious foals of year "x" Three year olds are still maturing, and that's what Forego needed to do with his huge frame.

AP was superior to Chrome prior to the Belmont, IMO, for Chrome's year found many horses getting derailed (including the 2yo champ and the exacta of this year's Met Mile) and most preps went in upsets. APs crop held together far better. There is still a lot to prove on the track for in the end few of those formful G1 winners placed in these classics (two); half of the placers had no G1 type whatsoever. I think someone needs to thick skulled to not see Dortmund at this stage as anything but spent in a harder trek to Louisville, the FL Derby did not hold up, the LA horses were weaker, and IMO Frosted still has to prove himself....he has not won many races and has been a tricky one for McLaughlin to figure out.

This was APs year. Retrospectively, he likely was a little short in the Derby but got it done, and that got him on a very solid peak for the Preakness and Belmont. Ended up being way to much for this batch to handle.

Now we have to see what they all do. There is a lot of talk here as if the TC is some conclusive sort of something. It's not, though. The races are restricted in not only how they are written, but that you need a precocious horse to make them and thrive. I don't think you call a crop great (or not) in May. You can only call it promising. You can only call any of this promising.

HalvOnHorseracing
06-12-2015, 06:55 PM
Secretariat's accomplishments in the TC races were other worldly. If the Pimlico timer had not malfunctioned he would have had three track records, one a world record. His accomplishement in the Derby - the successive quarter-mile times were 251⁄5, 24, 234⁄5, 232⁄5, and 23 - is unheard of in sprints much less a mile and a quarter. His move in the Preakness where he passed the entire field around the turn was electrifying. And his Belmont is still one of the most impressive performances ever turned in by a race horse. Taking nothing away from American Pharoah, who also ran three impressive and decisive races, he is unlikely to leave a footprint as large as the one Secretariat left.

Cratos
06-12-2015, 07:17 PM
Correct. Obviously, Secretariat was really, really good, so I don't want to imply otherwise, but Secretariat would have had real trouble (as did everyone in the handicap division) with the Forego that developed later on.

It's like pointing to a horse who beat Cigar as a 3 year old and saying how great that was.
Forego as a 3yo ran 13 times with a record of 9-2-1-1

Also Forego having not run as a 2yo wasn't as developed "racing wise" as Secretariat who had 12 career starts entering the Derby.

The bottom-line is that Forego was a very good horse from the beginning, but ran into a "monster" in Secretariat.

Forego should better be remembered as the best "weight carrier" since the great Kelso who also was a gelding.

Also the historic difference between Secretariat and Forego IMHO is not their meeting in the 1973 Derby, but their restorations to racing TC and handicap races at the time.

The luster of the 3yo TC was not glowing well with Citation having won the TC 25 years earlier at the time and the great weight carriers with horses like Kelso and Dr. Fager were retired.

Then along came Secretariat with his record breaking TC victories and soon thereafter Forego began his weight toting in the handicap division and life was good again in horseracing.

Therefore the comments that I have read this far on this Forum is from some people who really don't understand racing at that time and is making opinions on conjecture.

Augenj
06-12-2015, 08:26 PM
As I recall, somebody here wanted "proof" of Secretariat's heart size at his autopsy. In spite of this "proof" in the links below, I'm sure that "somebody" will never accept it because of a touch of cognitive dissonance.

http://www.sport-horse-breeder.com/large-heart.html (22 pounds)

http://www.newworldencyclopedia.org/entry/Secretariat (21 to 22 pounds)
And Sham? A measly 19 pounds.

http://www.newworldencyclopedia.org/entry/Secretariat

http://www.circledhorses.com/The%20X-Factor.htm

Grits
06-12-2015, 08:33 PM
Raybo, ILovetheInner, Cratos, Augenj....great additions to the thread. Thank you each for writing.