American Pharoah wins the Belmont & Triple Crown!!

[FantasticDan]

History is made! Congrats to American Pharoah and his connections! :jump: :ThmbUp: :cool: :ThmbUp: :jump:

[EMD4ME]

History is made! Congrats to American Pharoah and his connections! :jump: :ThmbUp: :cool: :ThmbUp: :jump:


I eat crow. Slow pace and a joke but congratulations. He deserves it.

[horses4courses]

Absolutely OUT OF THIS WORLD!!!!

[Tom]

I never thought I would see another one.
About time! :jump:

[depalma113]

There was no way he would ever lose!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


TRIPLE CROWN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!

[098poi]

I'm happy.

[Secondbest]

Not even close

[Simple Syrup]

It's been a long time since I was this excited to lose a wager.

[Redboard]

Unbelievable!!!!!!

[razorback5]

Fastest Belmont since 03. This is a very special horse.

[Kash$]

PARENTAL DISCRETION ADVISED THAT WAS SCARY

[Secondbest]

Fastest Belmont since 03. This is a very special horse.
2:26 .55

[zerosky]

Congrats to all connections...
I only wish Tom Durkin made the call

[MutuelClerk]

Torn, don't like Zayat. Not a fan of Baffert but a very cool moment. Pretty special horse. Agree about Durkin. Damn....

[PizzaCat]

He just kept going. Fractions were so consistently good. Didn't slow down much at all throughout. Frosted tried to make a run, but if the leader isn't slowing down, you aren't catching him. Incredible!

[depalma113]

I eat crow. Slow pace and a joke but congratulations. He deserves it.

2:26 3/5

I don't want to hear any more garbage about this horse being slow.

[AlBundy33]

I think any questions about the times in the Derby and the Preakness have been laid to rest with that performance.

[lamboguy]

2:26 3/5

I don't want to hear any more garbage about this horse being slow.after the Preakness where AMERICAN PHAROAH had to battle sprinters to get the lead and show up with a second gear down the lane, he looked pretty impressive.

today he beat the best Belmont Stake field that i have ever seen. i really don't know how anyone can still under rate him.

before the race i had him 8 cents to the dollar, the bettors didn't believe in him, but we proved them wrong this time!

[Shelby]

I teared up at the beginning of the race and I'm still crying. How amazing is this??????!!!!!! What a HORSE!!!!! I'm so happy I finally got to see a triple crown winner. Simply one of the most exciting days of my life.

[Kash$]

2:26 3/5

I don't want to hear any more garbage about this horse being slow.

Couldnt blow out a match after the race...Materiality/Frosted tired just trying to keep...

[boys at tosconova]

much like when the subway series was suppose to blow up new york. and when miquel cabrera won baseball's triple crown, nobody really cared.

[depalma113]

after the Preakness where AMERICAN PHAROAH had to battle sprinters to get the lead and show up with a second gear down the lane, he looked pretty impressive.

today he beat the best Belmont Stake field that i have ever seen. i really don't know how anyone can still under rate him.

before the race i had him 8 cents to the dollar, the bettors didn't believe in him, but we proved them wrong this time!


A Tremendous Day!!!!!

[plainolebill]

It's been a long time since I was this excited to lose a wager.

Me too! :ThmbUp:

[clocker7]

NBC delayed some hockey game because the moment was so electrifying and telegenic.

[PICSIX]

I eat crow. Slow pace and a joke but congratulations. He deserves it.

Why so slow...all of those rested horses were going to gang up on him :confused: :confused:

[Robert Goren]

He still looked to me like he had another gear left. We may never know how good this horse is.

[Tommy Tom]

I teared up at the beginning of the race and I'm still crying. How amazing is this??????!!!!!! What a HORSE!!!!! I'm so happy I finally got to see a triple crown winner. Simply one of the most exciting days of my life.

Nice :)

[JustRalph]

13th anniversary of my dads death. He would be ecstatic 👍😜

He won easy too.......

Shelby, you're not the only one with a few tears. Wishing my dad was here

[depalma113]

He still looked to me like he had another gear left. We may never know how good this horse is.

He's not done. The Haskell, Travers, and BC Classic are still on the list.

[CryingForTheHorses]

I eat crow. Slow pace and a joke but congratulations. He deserves it.


The only joke was the rest of the field..Congrats to his connections.All I can say is WOW!!

[JustRalph]

He still looked to me like he had another gear left. We may never know how good this horse is.

We finally agree!!

[BettinBilly]

Shocked, surprised, pleased, blown away and a few other superlatives.

If I were Espinoza, I would have screamed more than "Holy Sh*t!" when I realized that I had won one of the most coveted and elusive trophies in all of sport. Congrats to American Pharoah and connections.

I maxed out my Xpressbet guarantee on AP, so I obviously won that. Got beat on all my exotics, but who cares. I loved the race. Never thought I'd see another TC in my lifetime.

[Rex Phinney]

I eat crow. Slow pace and a joke but congratulations. He deserves it.

I'll agree with you here. He runs the first 3/4 in 1:13 plus and no one is within a length of him????

Are they all cowards or just that slow???

Happy to see him win, I'll struggle pondering exactly what he beat

[depalma113]

Just for the record.

He was faster than Affirmed.

[Kash$]

Just for the record.

He was faster than Affirmed.

And beat more horses combined in all three races since Assualt

[JustRalph]

After show on NBC Sports channel

[RXB]

I'll agree with you here. He runs the first 3/4 in 1:13 plus and no one is within a length of him????

Are they all cowards or just that slow???

Happy to see him win, I'll struggle pondering exactly what he beat

A bunch of midpackers and backrunners, one presser, one leader. Not exactly a setup for a hot pace, especially when the presser gave some noticeably negative signs during parade and warmup.

He's won races every which way, he's an excellent horse.

[JustRalph]

Shocked, surprised, pleased, blown away and a few other superlatives.

If I were Espinoza, I would have screamed more than "Holy Sh*t!" when I realized that I had won one of the most coveted and elusive trophies in all of sport. Congrats to American Pharoah and connections.

I maxed out my Xpressbet guarantee on AP, so I obviously won that. Got beat on all my exotics, but who cares. I loved the race. Never thought I'd see another TC in my lifetime.

They go after him and they end up in the back. This wasn't Bailey and Solis. These guys were trying to win.

[NecssryEvil]

This certainly should provide a boost to the sport, hopefully the opportunity is not wasted. There are other owners I would have rather it happened for, but congrats nonetheless.

[depalma113]

And what was that about having to have raced at Belmont?

[ArlJim78]

I eat crow. Slow pace and a joke but congratulations. He deserves it.
that hardly seems sufficient given how spectacularly wrong you were. you gave AP no shot whatsoever. funny how with all your experience that you told us about, a great horse was right under your nose and you didn't recognize it. don't feel bad though, many other experts didn't see it either.

[clocker7]

In the spirit of certain smelly posts before the race:

WHAT A KICK IN THE NADS TO THAT OUTSIDER WHO MALTREATED HIS NAG BY DENYING IT LASIX.

:lol:

[OntheRail]

WoW... and American Pharoah makes 4 I've seen. I can hardly wait till next Year. TC clock set to (0). :jump:

[Kash$]

And what was that about having to have raced at Belmont?

HOY wrapped up

[ArlJim78]

And what was that about having to have raced at Belmont?
add them all up.
never raced at Belmont.
trainer has bad record at Belmont.
Belmont is just different.
rider has bad record at belmont.
AP not bred for the distance, will be gasping in the stretch.

and on and on.

[Tall One]

41 years old, and been crying tears of joy.


Breeders Cup Classic will be special.

[JustRalph]

Context

[Relwob Owner]

41 years old, and been crying tears of joy.


Breeders Cup Classic will be special.


42, same thing.

[tzipi]

I eat crow. Slow pace and a joke but congratulations. He deserves it.

I agree, a joke. They let him walk out front again and no one challenged him. These jocks have clocks in their head and see how fast a horse is moving in front of them. Came home like that because he was allowed to walk and have a full tank of gas for the stretch. I guess he's a TC winner though and racing fans who were mad in recent years at racings hard TC requirements, got their TC winner.

Anyway, Congrats Baffert! :)

[depalma113]

A joke? More like these jockeys knew they had absolutely no shot to beat him. He, as I have been saying for a long time, towers over every horse he has faced.

[elhelmete]

A joke? More like these jockeys knew they had absolutely no shot to beat him. He, as I have been saying for a long time, towers over every horse he has faced.

Yep.

Some people are still in denial that Truman beat Gov. Dewey in '48 too.

[Shelby]

I agree, a joke. They let him walk out front again and no one challenged him. These jocks have clocks in their head and see how fast a horse is moving in front of them. Came home like that because he was allowed to walk and have a full tank of gas for the stretch. I guess he's a TC winner though and racing fans who were mad in recent years at racings hard TC requirements, got their TC winner.

Anyway, Congrats Baffert! :)


How 'bout a congrats to the HORSE that did it?

[tzipi]

A joke? More like these jockeys knew they had absolutely no shot to beat him. He, as I have been saying for a long time, towers over every horse he has faced.

So because they KNEW they has no shot to beat the horse, they stayed off him though slow fractions? Doesn't seem right? They just gave up in the beginning of the race? At least challenge a horse you know is walking. He walked and they knew he was walking. These are seasoned top jocks with clocks in their heads. He we all have different opinions. Got to have debates :)

[EMD4ME]

Why so slow...all of those rested horses were going to gang up on him :confused: :confused:

You want my honest reaction? I wasnt impressed. I saw an average horse just get treated like he is Secretariat. That was a joke of a boat race. John V must of been rooting for jose or something because he let him crawl out there for 3/4 of a mile.

Nobody will like my answer but it's the truth. To me, that's a tainted TC. 3 slow paces. 1 where 10 horses got ****ed at the gate. 1 win vs a mdspwt pig and a joke of a belmont where speed was more than benefitted.

I said it before and I'll say it again. if he wins, I eat crow but if he wins while walking on a slow pace, it won't be an earned win.

this was more of a : "let's give one out for the good of racing"

[tzipi]

How 'bout a congrats to the HORSE that did it?

AP did his thing and ran a win. No doubt. Congrats to him and the fans. Have not said a bad word about him as a horse. Just thought the race was a bit crazy and slow. Also not only one saying it was slow. Many have said they were not impressed with the racing and that they let him get out front an walk. Was just agreeing with some others. Just my opinion though.

[JustRalph]

So because they KNEW they has no shot to beat the horse, they stayed off him though slow fractions? Doesn't seem right? They just gave up in the beginning of the race? At least challenge a horse you know is walking. He walked and they knew he was walking. These are seasoned top jocks with clocks in their heads. He we all have different opinions. Got to have debates :)

And they wanted a decent check. I think they knew where they fit

[elhelmete]

this was more of a : "let's give one out for the good of racing"

Yeah if I'm an owner/trainer that's exactly what I do today, or any day. wow
:bang:

[Show Me the Wire]

A joke? More like these jockeys knew they had absolutely no shot to beat him. He, as I have been saying for a long time, towers over every horse he has faced.


What no Jerry Bailey wiling to sacrifice his horse to give some other Jock a shot at the money, oh no!

[EMD4ME]

41 years old, and been crying tears of joy.


Breeders Cup Classic will be special.


LMAO!!!!!!!!!!

Unless he's Bayerd and he whacks out half the speeds in the classic, he has no shot in the classic.

And before anyone says I was wrong today.....I said...His only chance is to hit the lead, PRAY JOHNNNY V chokes and he cakewalks around.

Guess what......It happened.

An average horse is getting treated like a champ, it's ridiculous.

It won't happen again when 5 million is on the line.

[ArlJim78]

Incredible, Materiality fades to dead last yet people wonder why he didn't push the pace more.

[EMD4ME]

What no Jerry Bailey wiling to sacrifice his horse to give some other Jock a shot at the money, oh no!

If Jerry rode Materiality, we'd all be hailing Frosted the Belmont winner.

When Ramon got hurt, the last GREAT jockey left our continent. No one left (like Johnny V on the supposed 'I'm getting the lead no matter what" horse) and bullshit like this happens.

[tzipi]

What no Jerry Bailey wiling to sacrifice his horse to give some other Jock a shot at the money, oh no!

Or Pincay being told to not let Secretariat walk out front and go after him with Sham. Pincay went hard after Secretariat and Secretariat battled for the TC and won. Awesome race and TC.

Did Pincay get blasted by that move back then?

This is why racing and the boards are great. Opinions. All good ones.

[EMD4ME]

Or Pincay being told to not let Secretariat walk out front and go after him with Sham. Pincay went hard after Secretariat and Secretariat battled for the TC and won. Awesome race and TC.


You see, if Johnny V went after him, AP dueled him and put him away through any decent fractions, his win would be validated to me.

A boat race, run like we're in roosevelt in 1956, urks me. His Preakness was the same. Sorry to be a party pooper, unimpressive.

Congrats to him, Baffert, Jose and the Z's regardless. Take them as you can.

[Show Me the Wire]

If Jerry rode Materiality, we'd all be hailing Frosted the Belmont winner.

When Ramon got hurt, the last GREAT jockey left our continent. No one left (like Johnny V on the supposed 'I'm getting the lead no matter what" horse) and bullshit like this happens.

I have my doubts, not about Bailey trying to beat AP, but about Materiality. Not enough horse to do the job. He faded badly while running modest fractions.

[depalma113]

So because they KNEW they has no shot to beat the horse, they stayed off him though slow fractions? Doesn't seem right? They just gave up in the beginning of the race? At least challenge a horse you know is walking. He walked and they knew he was walking. These are seasoned top jocks with clocks in their heads. He we all have different opinions. Got to have debates :)

They had no shot to win if they challenged him early. They knew that. Pace handicapping 101.

[elhelmete]

Wasn't Victor supposed to be the pinhead jock in this race? With no clock? Guess not.

[Tall One]

LMAO!!!!!!!!!!

Unless he's Bayerd and he whacks out half the speeds in the classic, he has no shot in the classic.

And before anyone says I was wrong today.....I said...His only chance is to hit the lead, PRAY JOHNNNY V chokes and he cakewalks around.

Guess what......It happened.

An average horse is getting treated like a champ, it's ridiculous.

It won't happen again when 5 million is on the line.


You lost your ass...we get it.

[Rex Phinney]

Congrats to him. I take nothing away from him. I would have just like to see someone try a little harder to press him. Maybe he would have won anyway, as it is he won all three races without getting a speck of dirt on him.

It seems like dirt racing in general is run like this all the time. Those behind the leader are eternally sitting and waiting for what? A horse in front of them to stop after running thru fractions like a donkey? Unless you soften someone up they just keep going. The tracks play fast too.

I don't mean to hate on AP I just hate watching a parade dressed up like a horse race.

[thaskalos]

LMAO!!!!!!!!!!

Unless he's Bayerd and he whacks out half the speeds in the classic, he has no shot in the classic.

And before anyone says I was wrong today.....I said...His only chance is to hit the lead, PRAY JOHNNNY V chokes and he cakewalks around.

Guess what......It happened.

An average horse is getting treated like a champ, it's ridiculous.

It won't happen again when 5 million is on the line.

That sure didn't look like an "average horse" running down that stretch. It looked like a CHAMP to me.

[tzipi]

You see, if Johnny V went after him, AP dueled him and put him away through any decent fractions, his win would be validated to me.

A boat race, run like we're in roosevelt in 1956, urks me. His Preakness was the same. Sorry to be a party pooper, unimpressive.

Congrats to him, Baffert, Jose and the Z's regardless. Take them as you can.

Yeah probably not the most popular opinion today, but a lot of people think is was just an easy walk race. He got out and seasoned jocks just watched him walk and they knew he was walking. No one challenged him again. I could see if he was Sec and Sham and running so fast that no one could keep up, but he was walking and they all watched behind him again.

He looked great in the final run because he had a full tank of gas from the walking I think.

But yes, congrats to the horse and team and racing for finally getting a TC winner for the fans! :)

Enjoy all :)

[CryingForTheHorses]

You want my honest reaction? I wasnt impressed. I saw an average horse just get treated like he is Secretariat. That was a joke of a boat race. John V must of been rooting for jose or something because he let him crawl out there for 3/4 of a mile.

Nobody will like my answer but it's the truth. To me, that's a tainted TC. 3 slow paces. 1 where 10 horses got ****ed at the gate. 1 win vs a mdspwt pig and a joke of a belmont where speed was more than benefitted.

I said it before and I'll say it again. if he wins, I eat crow but if he wins while walking on a slow pace, it won't be an earned win.

this was more of a : "let's give one out for the good of racing"


I bet you wouldnt be saying that IF he was YOUR horse!!.......I love guys like you.ALWAYS looking for the bad in something good.GUYS like you are one of the reasons this sport gets bad publicly..Find another sport!

[depalma113]

You want my honest reaction? I wasnt impressed. I saw an average horse just get treated like he is Secretariat. That was a joke of a boat race. John V must of been rooting for jose or something because he let him crawl out there for 3/4 of a mile.

Nobody will like my answer but it's the truth. To me, that's a tainted TC. 3 slow paces. 1 where 10 horses got ****ed at the gate. 1 win vs a mdspwt pig and a joke of a belmont where speed was more than benefitted.

I said it before and I'll say it again. if he wins, I eat crow but if he wins while walking on a slow pace, it won't be an earned win.

this was more of a : "let's give one out for the good of racing"

Try to justify betting against him any way you can. You can't see greatness when you are staring it in the face and that's sad for you.

[Show Me the Wire]

Or Pincay being told to not let Secretariat walk out front and go after him with Sham. Pincay went hard after Secretariat and Secretariat battled for the TC and won. Awesome race and TC.

Did Pincay get blasted by that move back then?

This is why racing and the boards are great. Opinions. All good ones.

Pincay had the horse to challenge Secretariat. None of these horses had that type of quality.

[Shelby]

That sure didn't look like an "average horse" running down that stretch. It looked like a CHAMP to me.
:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: Me too.

[EMD4ME]

I have my doubts, not about Bailey trying to beat AP, but about Materiality. Not enough horse to do the job. He faded badly while running modest fractions.

Not my point. Pletcher said he's going to the lead no matter what. Gate opens, AP is not out quick. JV is out well, JV is not sending.

If if didn't know better, this race seemed fixed like a 4 claimer at Penn.

if JV goes hell bent to the lead, 2 scenarios happen:

1) AP earns an unmistakable Belmont win

2) AP loses to frosted.

now to me, it was a joke of a cakewalk for the chalk.

[f2tornado]

Belmont was the first time I was impressed with AP. I had ample doubt. Nicely done. I tried to beat him but had the saver trifecta to keep loses minimal.

[PICSIX]

If Jerry rode Materiality, we'd all be hailing Frosted the Belmont winner.

When Ramon got hurt, the last GREAT jockey left our continent. No one left (like Johnny V on the supposed 'I'm getting the lead no matter what" horse) and bullshit like this happens.

If if and buts were candies and nuts...... :sleeping:

[EMD4ME]

Try to justify betting against him any way you can. You can't see greatness when you are staring it in the face and that's sad for you.

No pal, I'm not a Hulkamania loving, root for the American hero chalk eating weasel. I know greatness when I see it.

AP was not impressive. His pace was equal to race 6, yes for older horses, yes it was 2/5 faster than Coach Inge but it was done with zero competition from the only pace horse in the race.

you want talent, look at a horse who wins 2 duels in 1 race and holds off a closer. Find a horse who is stressed through the fastest part of a race and finds the guts to win.

AP had 3 different type of cakewalk scenarios vs. horses who were compromised in all 3 TC races. He overcame ZERO obstacles.

He is no superhorse. Sorry to be a debbie downer. I've seen 50 claimers who were more impressive than this horse.

[NY BRED]

Lets see,AP didn't deserve to win because he set a slow pace?
And, if he sets a fast pace and wins he didn't deserve to win because the other jocks didn't press AP.

So couple of thoughts.

Second fastest Belmont in racing history.

AP is second in the all time list of meeting more opponents other than War Admiral.

Wake up, this horse was noted as a freak early in his career by Jeff Seder,
who Zayat s/b sending a huge consultant fee.

Welcome the new three year old and horse of the year, and undoubtedly
best trainer and owner of 2015.

:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[EMD4ME]

If if and buts were candies and nuts...... :sleeping:


I can at least smile through all this. Good one :cool:

[thaskalos]

No pal, I'm not a Hulkamania loving, root for the American hero chalk eating weasel. I know greatness when I see it.

AP was not impressive. His pace was equal to race 6, yes for older horses, yes it was 2/5 faster than Coach Inge but it was done with zero competition from the only pace horse in the race.

you want talent, look at a horse who wins 2 duels in 1 race and holds off a closer. Find a horse who is stressed through the fastest part of a race and finds the guts to win.

AP had 3 different type of cakewalk scenarios vs. horses who were compromised in all 3 TC races. He overcame ZERO obstacles.

He is no superhorse. Sorry to be a debbie downer. I've seen 50 claimers who were more impressive than this horse.
You bankers are never satisfied. You always wanna see more...

[Tall One]

:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: Me too.



I can drive 15 minutes down the road to Taylor Made...this is a very special win across the board for all the Hard Boots in Central, KY.

[horses4courses]

I've seen 50 claimers who were more impressive than this horse.

That's it.
I've sat back for the past 90 minutes watching you stew as you type.

You have absolutely no sense of perspective,
or an earthly idea of what you're talking about.

Go for a long walk.....take up fishing....anything but horse racing, please.

[Kash$]

That's it.
I've sat back for the past 90 minutes watching you stew as you type.

You have absolutely no sense of perspective,
or an earthly idea of what you're talking about.

Go for a long walk.....take up fishing....anything but horse racing, please.

Needs a nap

[elhelmete]

Ironically...Social Inclusion just now gets buried in the get-out race at Belmont.

[elhelmete]

I've seen 50 claimers who were more impressive than this horse.

I'll be first in line to drop a claim slip on Frosted in a $12,500 claimer at Laurel soon.

[CryingForTheHorses]

I can at least smile through all this. Good one :cool:

Im really glad you are not in the middle of that NY mob in the grandstand that just witnessed this horse.I think you may get a good old AMERICAN beating knocking what this horse has done.Fastest Belmont since 03, Yeah bring on the 50 claimers!

[EMD4ME]

Just for the record.

He was faster than Affirmed.


How quick/slow was the dirt the day Affirmed won compared to today's card?

[Watcher]

Woohoo!!!!

[EMD4ME]

Im really glad you are not in the middle of that NY mob in the grandstand that just witnessed this horse.I think you may get a good old AMERICAN beating knocking what this horse has done.Fastest Belmont since 03, Yeah bring on the 50 claimers!

First time I haven't been at the Belmont since 1989, sad..... 26 straight years, it's weird NOT being there.

[EMD4ME]

That's it.
I've sat back for the past 90 minutes watching you stew as you type.

You have absolutely no sense of perspective,
or an earthly idea of what you're talking about.

Go for a long walk.....take up fishing....anything but horse racing, please.

Sorry if i think with logic and not with your kool aid on how good AP is.

Want to prove me wrong? Tell me 1 thing he did from a trip, pace perspective, in any of his races, that was impressive. Go ahead, I dare you. Just 1.....

[EMD4ME]

You bankers are never satisfied. You always wanna see more...


I had to wipe the pee from my pants !!!!!

Good one old pal!!!

[zico20]

Lets see,AP didn't deserve to win because he set a slow pace?
And, if he sets a fast pace and wins he didn't deserve to win because the other jocks didn't press AP.

So couple of thoughts.

Second fastest Belmont in racing history.

AP is second in the all time list of meeting more opponents other than War Admiral.

Wake up, this horse was noted as a freak early in his career by Jeff Seder,
who Zayat s/b sending a huge consultant fee.

Welcome the new three year old and horse of the year, and undoubtedly
best trainer and owner of 2015.

:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

One correction in your post. It was the 6th best time ever.

http://www.sportingnews.com/sport/story/2015-06-06/american-pharoah-triple-crown-belmont-fastest-times-records-leaders-secretariat-2015

[horses4courses]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CG24l1MU8AE1xCQ.jpg

[EMD4ME]

That sure didn't look like an "average horse" running down that stretch. It looked like a CHAMP to me.

Yep, the Legendary Coach Inge came home in 23.96 after setting similar fractions (But had true company hounded him) going 1 1/2 miles. AP came home in 24.32 (after being left alone like he had AIDS and an open blood wound). Some champion.

[EMD4ME]

Dressed up trips make good horses look great. But why focus on such irrelevant factors when discussing horse racing ? :bang: :bang: :bang:

[tzipi]

A joke? More like these jockeys knew they had absolutely no shot to beat him. He, as I have been saying for a long time, towers over every horse he has faced.

Well I will say then, thank God the USA boys of the 1980 Olympic hockey team didn't think the same way as they pushed hard and tried hard and defeated a team no one in the world could beat, The Big Red Machine. Thank God they didn't just lie back and watch and say they knew Russia would beat them. That was some hockey game. :)


http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/b/bd/Sports_Illustrated_Miracle_on_Ice_cover.jpg

[horses4courses]

Sorry if i think with logic and not with your kool aid on how good AP is.

Want to prove me wrong? Tell me 1 thing he did from a trip, pace perspective, in any of his races, that was impressive. Go ahead, I dare you. Just 1.....

I was not on any bandwagon here.
I passed betting the race.
Just glad he won.

You really think his opposition is that weak?
Second fastest TC winning Belmont behind Secretariat.
Fourth race in eight weeks.
He must have been up against claimers.

Go ahead.
Continue making a fool of yourself. :rolleyes:

[Steve R]

2:26 3/5

I don't want to hear any more garbage about this horse being slow.
Slow is a relative term. Yes, it was the fastest Belmont since 2001 on a fast surface. Meanwhile, Honor Code ran the 6th fastest Met Mile in 120 years, Wedding Toast set the stakes record in the Phipps and March ran the 5th fastest Woody Stephens in its 30-year history. The track was blazing fast all day. It doesn't detract from American Pharoah's performance but the time was consistent with a strongly speed-carrying surface. It will be interesting to see how the speed figure organizations view it. I thought it was about 1 1/2 to 2 lengths better than par for the race.

[highnote]

I'm somewhat in agreement with END4ME on AP's Belmont race.

I wrote the following in a post in a different thread:

D. Wayne Lukas always said you just need to run 12 second eighths to win the Derby. Probably the same with the Belmont.

The early fractions were slightly faster last year, but the final time was slower. Maybe last year was Fast Early / Slow Late.

Two years ago the early fractions were blazing:
23.11, 46.66, 1:10.95, 1:36.47, 2:03.12, 2:30.07
Fast Early / Slow Late

I would like to have seen Fast Early / Fast Late, but that sort of race shape is run by superstars -- like Secretariat:

23 3⁄5, 46 1⁄5, 1:09 1⁄5, 1:34 1⁄5, 1:59, 2:24

This year looked Average Early / Average Late:

24.06, 48.83, 1:13.41, 1:37.99, 2:02.33, 2:26.65

It will be interesting to see AP's speed figure.

AP's connections did what they had to do to win. Nothing else should be expected. I just didn't find the race very interesting or impressive. To paraphrase Jim "The Hat" Bradshaw -- "Shoot. It ain't nothin' but a horse race. One horse goes out and gets the lead and the rest try to catch him."

Today, none of the jockeys wanted to catch him. They let AP lope along on an easy lead and then AP, to his credit, had plenty left in the tank.

As I also wrote in another thread, it will be interesting to see if AP sticks around long enough to run in the BC Classic. If he has to run 6 furlongs on the lead at 1:08 and change, it's doubtful he will be anywhere near the front when the first horse crosses under the wire.

[elhelmete]

Yep, the Legendary Coach Inge came home in 23.96 after setting similar fractions (But had true company hounded him) going 1 1/2 miles. AP came home in 24.32 (after being left alone like he had AIDS and an open blood wound). Some champion.

Ridden by that moron Johnny V. Musta forgotten how to ride suddenly.

[highnote]

Slow is a relative term. Yes, it was the fastest Belmont since 2001 on a fast surface. Meanwhile, Honor Code ran the 6th fastest Met Mile in 120 years, Wedding Toast set the stakes record in the Phipps and March ran the 5th fastest Woody Stephens in its 30-year history. The track was blazing fast all day. It doesn't detract from American Pharoah's performance but the time was consistent with a strongly speed-carrying surface. It will be interesting to see how the speed figure organizations view it. I thought it was about 1 1/2 to 2 lengths better than par for the race.


The Met Mile was a more interesting race than the Belmont Stakes, in my opinion. I just saw the replay. Honor Code was perfectly suited for that pace scenario.

Have you made a Performance Figure for the Belmont Stakes and the rest of the card, yet?

[EMD4ME]

I was not on any bandwagon here.
I passed betting the race.
Just glad he won.

You really think his opposition is that weak?
Second fastest TC winning Belmont behind Secretariat.
Fourth race in eight weeks.
He must have been up against claimers.

Go ahead.
Continue making a fool of yourself. :rolleyes:


No genius, any real profitable player out there (they are 1 in 10,000) actually knows I speak the truth. I'm not on here to win anyone over or to sway anyone. I love it when people mock me and disagree with me. It reinforces that I should just keep betting as there are a lot of unseasoned players out there that believe hooplah and kool aid.

He might have won the TC but he's no champion in my eyes and my eyes, parimutually are all that matter and if I'm betting parimutually, I'm happy my logical opinion is against the masses opinion.

[whodoyoulike]

I'll agree with you here. He runs the first 3/4 in 1:13 plus and no one is within a length of him????

Are they all cowards or just that slow???

Happy to see him win, I'll struggle pondering exactly what he beat

Slow?? He ran 24+, 48+ and 73 thru 6f.

How fast did you want him to go in a 12f race where you would think it was okay?

He was leading W2W, so why go faster. He is fortunate he wasn't pressed during the early part.

It's been a couple of hours are you still pondering away?

[EMD4ME]

Ridden by that moron Johnny V. Musta forgotten how to ride suddenly.

Bluntly, Johnny V sucks. Always has, always will. He couldn't hold JD or Ramon's or his agents Jock Strap for 3 seconds.

[highnote]

No genius, any real profitable player out there (they are 1 in 10,000) actually knows I speak the truth. I'm not on here to win anyone over or to sway anyone. I love it when people mock me and disagree with me. It reinforces that I should just keep betting as there are a lot of unseasoned players out there that believe hooplah and kool aid.

He might have won the TC but he's no champion in my eyes and my eyes, parimutually are all that matter and if I'm betting parimutually, I'm happy my logical opinion is against the masses opinion.


From a breeder's perspective, it is also important to understand how good or bad AP's Belmont Stakes performance was compared to other ones.

If you have a great mare, do you send her to AP because he is fashionable, but unproven? Or do you send her to a more established sire?

[EMD4ME]

From a breeder's perspective, it is also important to understand how good or bad AP's Belmont Stakes performance was compared to other ones.

If you have a great mare, do you send her to AP because he is fashionable, but unproven? Or do you send her to a more established sire?

That is an excellent and interesting question. I'd rather go to a proven sire that has overcome adversity to be victorious. From a heart perspective and from a true talent perspective.

Your thoughts?

[minethatbird08]

Sorry if i think with logic and not with your kool aid on how good AP is.

Want to prove me wrong? Tell me 1 thing he did from a trip, pace perspective, in any of his races, that was impressive. Go ahead, I dare you. Just 1.....

Won the Derby with a wide trip after acting up. It was a clean trip no doubt but great horses make there trips.

[EMD4ME]

Won the Derby with a wide trip after acting up. It was a clean trip no doubt but great horses make there trips.

Wide trip? since when does a 3 wide trip stalking in a race that ran 321 where 10 horses were accordioned (and still finished better than him) and where the pace was a joke with a slow end A ROUGH TRIP?

[depalma113]

No pal, I'm not a Hulkamania loving, root for the American hero chalk eating weasel. I know greatness when I see it.

AP was not impressive. His pace was equal to race 6, yes for older horses, yes it was 2/5 faster than Coach Inge but it was done with zero competition from the only pace horse in the race.

you want talent, look at a horse who wins 2 duels in 1 race and holds off a closer. Find a horse who is stressed through the fastest part of a race and finds the guts to win.

AP had 3 different type of cakewalk scenarios vs. horses who were compromised in all 3 TC races. He overcame ZERO obstacles.

He is no superhorse. Sorry to be a debbie downer. I've seen 50 claimers who were more impressive than this horse.

You've seen 50 claimers better than a Triple Crown winner? You might as well just stop now. You are looking more and more like a whining jealous fool with every post you write.

[highnote]

Slow?? He ran 24+, 48+ and 73 thru 6f.

How fast did you want him to go in a 12f race where you would think it was okay?

He was leading W2W, so why go faster. He is fortunate he wasn't pressed during the early part.

It's been a couple of hours are you still pondering away?

I agree with Rex, but I'd also say that Espinoza did a great job riding. He only did what he had to do to win.

I'd say the pace was Average Early / Average Late or maybe Average Early / Fast Late.

[EMD4ME]

You've seen 50 claimers better than a Triple Crown winner? You might as well just stop now. You are looking more and more like a whining jealous fool with every post you write.


I'm not jealous. I'm happy for all involved 1) the game 2) the fans who love him and wagered on him 3) the owner/jockey/trainer etc.

I am just analyzing his effort as if I was analyzing a 10 claimer at Mountaineer on a Monday night as true winning horseplayers do.

[Show Me the Wire]

Not my point. Pletcher said he's going to the lead no matter what. Gate opens, AP is not out quick. JV is out well, JV is not sending.

If if didn't know better, this race seemed fixed like a 4 claimer at Penn.

if JV goes hell bent to the lead, 2 scenarios happen:

1) AP earns an unmistakable Belmont win

2) AP loses to frosted.

now to me, it was a joke of a cakewalk for the chalk.

Yes, 3rd time Espinoza broke his horse slow in the Belmont, admittedly not as bad as War Emblem or C.C. Frosted out broke both AP and Materiality. Frosted Jocks grabs, which gave J.V. Materiality every chance to go to the lead. Thus, the question why did J.V. grab too and inherent second because Frosted was held even more?

Maybe J.V. knew his horse didn't have it in him today? Sure looks that way based on the fade of Materiality.

Also, no other horse wanted to challenge A.P. Why? Maybe because they all thought A.P. couldn't get the distance and they could catch the tiring horse or maybe they thought they could not run with A.P.(see Mr. Z)? So yes it did turn into a cakewalk, because A.P. was too much horse for the rest.

[elhelmete]

If you have a great mare, do you send her to AP because he is fashionable, but unproven? Or do you send her to a more established sire?

Perhaps Pioneerof The Nile? ;)

[highnote]

That is an excellent and interesting question. I'd rather go to a proven sire that has overcome adversity to be victorious. From a heart perspective and from a true talent perspective.

Your thoughts?


Just like in betting, choosing a sire depends on the price.

Had AP been 6/5 or better today I'd have made a win bet on him.

If his stud fee is $50,000 I'd probably pass and look for a better value. If his stud fee was $25,000 it might be worth taking a shot just because you might be able to sell the filly or colt for a lot more than that.

I'd have to think about it some more. But my feeling is that he'll be overpriced as a freshman sire.

[tucker6]

Pincay had the horse to challenge Secretariat. None of these horses had that type of quality.
To add to your statement, Sham finished dead last because of that challenge. Maybe the jocks and trainers knew their horses better than we do. Maybe they knew AP was the real deal. All I know is that AP ran a steady race in full control and came home with a top 5 all time Belmont time.

[Relwob Owner]

You've seen 50 claimers better than a Triple Crown winner? You might as well just stop now. You are looking more and more like a whining jealous fool with every post you write.

Could not agree more. Great job calling AP from the get go :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[HILLJERRY2269]

The splits were amazing. Each one a consistent 24+
A machine.

[EMD4ME]

Yes, 3rd time Espinoza broke his horse slow in the Belmont, admittedly not as bad as War Emblem or C.C. Frosted out broke both AP and Materiality. Frosted Jocks grabs, which gave J.V. Materiality every chance to go to the lead. Thus, the question why did J.V. grab too and inherent second because Frosted was held even more?

Maybe J.V. knew his horse didn't have it in him today? Sure looks that way based on the fade of Materiality.

Also, no other horse wanted to challenge A.P. Why? Maybe because they all thought A.P. couldn't get the distance and they could catch the tiring horse or maybe they thought they could not run with A.P.? So yes it did turn into a cakewalk, because A.P. was too much horse for the rest.

If a horse runs away going 6 or 7 or 8 furlongs and rattles off excellent fractions, yes, I get it that NO ONE can run with them.

I don't care if JV was riding a 5 claimer. Any pig can go faster than 24 48 in a 12 FURLONG event. Especially a horse of the talent of Materiality.

So my conclusion is 1 of the following 3:

1) JV is braindead(very likely, had been so for many years except for when he pumps to death on a Pletcher 2Yo in a 5F race). Hard to screw that up :)

2) The plan was to say we will go in an attempt to make AP go faster than he wants to secure a lead AND sit 2nd in hopes he can't get 1 1/2 miles

3) Scott Bakula quantum leaped into JV's mind 5 seconds before the gate opened and of course Scott had no clue what the plan was.

Besides all that, I did say a week ago. AP's only chance was to walk through 1M and sprint home. An unlikely scenario but of course, the rocket scientists of 2015 (Johnny V and his colleagues) somehow allowed that to happen in a 12 FURLONG RACE!!!!

So in other words, the usual NYRA occurence happened again. CHOKE, CHOKE, CHOKE, CHOKE and pray lightning hits the leader LMAO

[EMD4ME]

Perhaps Pioneerof The Nile? ;)


Good one !!!!!

[elhelmete]

Yeah those NYRA vets Desormeaux, Smith, and Gary Stevens.

[EMD4ME]

Just like in betting, choosing a sire depends on the price.

Had AP been 6/5 or better today I'd have made a win bet on him.

If his stud fee is $50,000 I'd probably pass and look for a better value. If his stud fee was $25,000 it might be worth taking a shot just because you might be able to sell the filly or colt for a lot more than that.

I'd have to think about it some more. But my feeling is that he'll be overpriced as a freshman sire.

I agree. Great points. Not much too add. Value is the key from any angle

[tucker6]

Dressed up trips make good horses look great. But why focus on such irrelevant factors when discussing horse racing ? :bang: :bang: :bang:
So no credit to AP for being the only horse in the field to run three times in five weeks? And then running a 2:26 and change.

Definitely a claimer. :rolleyes:

[classhandicapper]

The part of his performance that impressed me the most was his last quarter mile. It was 100% the opposite of what I was expecting. I thought he'd be on the lead, have to repulse a few challenges, and then they'd all stagger. He came home in 24.32. Moderate pace or not, that's serious racehorse time at 12F. There's no doubt he's a great horse that belongs on the list of Triple Crown winners. He has speed, stamina, and versatility. :ThmbUp:

[Neumeier]

I cried!

I really hope they run him til they end of the year like they said!

[EMD4ME]

Yeah those NYRA vets Desormeaux, Smith, and Gary Stevens.

No pal. JV and Irad (from the rail).

Second of all, how could Gary, Kent and Mikey go after him ? They are on the 3 stone closers of the race.

Want proof the pace was a joke? Keen ice was within 3 on the BACKSTRETCH!!!

[castaway01]

So no credit to AP for being the only horse in the field to run three times in five weeks? And then running a 2:26 and change.

It was a fantastic performance---accomplishing something no one else has in 37 years, blowing away the field in a very fast time. What else has to be said? Be glad you got a chance to see it because it was a long time coming.

[elhelmete]

No pal. JV and Irad (from the rail).

Second of all, how could Gary, Kent and Mikey go after him ? They are on the 3 stone closers of the race.

Want proof the pace was a joke? Keen ice was within 3 on the BACKSTRETCH!!!

Kent didn't get the fax from Chris Kay to GRAB GRAB GRAB.

[EMD4ME]

The part of his performance that impressed me the most was his last quarter mile. It was 100% the opposite of what I was expecting. I thought he'd be on the lead, have to repulse a few challenges, and then they'd all stagger. He came home in 24.32. Moderate pace or not, that's serious racehorse time at 12F. There's no doubt he's a great horse that belongs on the list of Triple Crown winners. He has speed, stamina, and versatility. :ThmbUp:


if 24.32 is serious racehorse time then I want you to wager on Coach Inge in the Breeders Cup Classic at 1/9.

After all he came home in 23.96, he must be the second coming of Secretariat!! :p :p :p

[EMD4ME]

Kent didn't get the fax from Chris Kay to GRAB GRAB GRAB.
:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

LMAO!!!

But in all seriousness, for Keen Ice to be that close, come on.....what a joke.

BTW, Chris Kay was so sincere in his words :liar: :liar: :liar:

[Redboard]

C'mon EMD4ME, you said he had no shot, then come in here and pooped on our party. You owe us one thing: How much money did you lose on the race?

[Rex Phinney]

Slow?? He ran 24+, 48+ and 73 thru 6f.

How fast did you want him to go in a 12f race where you would think it was okay?

He was leading W2W, so why go faster. He is fortunate he wasn't pressed during the early part.

It's been a couple of hours are you still pondering away?

I don't think a 24 first quarter should be fast enough to earn you a length lead in any G1, but it happens all the time in today's racing.

Your second sentence is my entire point, it isn't his fault those behind him let him go that pace. But it would have been nice to see him pressed a little. I mean jesus the horse is going for the triple crown and he goes 1:13.5 for 6 furlongs and noone is even with him?

He ran a winning race, so I take nothing away from him, watching the way he finished I think he could have turned away Materiality and still beat Keen Ice and Frosted. My point is soft leads are becoming too common, especially in routes. I guess jocks are just too afraid of distance limitations on their mounts. Most times Mile or 7f races end up favoring speed less these days because jocks will actually press.

Today the others deserve to get beat, just like those who let Bayern walk last year in the classic deserved it.

I think he did enough to deserve the crown, he won at 12f and he won in a hurricane so I won't go as far as calling him average.

[whodoyoulike]

I agree with Rex, but I'd also say that Espinoza did a great job riding. He only did what he had to do to win.

I'd say the pace was Average Early / Average Late or maybe Average Early / Fast Late.

So, how fast do you think he should have gone in the early fractions?

... He only did what he had to do to win...

Again, he led throughout the race. And, I'm learning a lot from everyone's negative responses. I hope you guys see the errors in your posts and are just being blinded by your emotions. If not then good, I hope we end up in the same wagering pools.

[Steve R]

The Met Mile was a more interesting race than the Belmont Stakes, in my opinion. I just saw the replay. Honor Code was perfectly suited for that pace scenario.

Have you made a Performance Figure for the Belmont Stakes and the rest of the card, yet?
I've got the dirt routes so far:

Ogden Phipps S, Wedding Toast, -56
Brooklyn Invitational, Coach Inge, -55
Acorn S, Curalina, -31
Met Mile, Honor Code, -72
Belmont S, American Pharoah, -58

[EMD4ME]

C'mon EMD4ME, you said he had no shot, then come in here and pooped on our party. You owe us one thing: How much money did you lose on the race?

Not much pal. Only $200.00 Played all supers. Keying forsted first and second, with Keen ice in the 3rd and fourth spots. I did however, throw out AP as I truly believed JV would go with Materiality.

I'm not upset, believe it or not. The Belmont was a token action bet for me, to watch the race.

[horses4courses]

It reinforces that I should just keep betting as there are a lot of unseasoned players out there that believe hooplah and kool aid.

That pari-mutuel window is a two-way street, alright.
Keeps me getting out of bed each day with a smile on my face. :)

Anyone who bet serious money on today's race,
or any of this year's TC races, needs their head examined.
They fall into the category of bettor that feels the need for recognition.
Bragging rights.

The 2015 Belmont Stakes was never about betting value.
Thank goodness there are those who think otherwise, though.

[highnote]

Perhaps Pioneerof The Nile? ;)


This might be a better choice -- a proven sire -- ... of a TC winner.

Interesting that Empire Maker, AP's grand sire, was also a Belmont Stakes winner.

The tail male line traces back to Native Dancer.

Pioneerof the Nile, Empire Maker, Unbridled, Fappiano, Mr. Prospector, Raise a Native, Native Dancer ... Phalaris.

No accident that AP can run.

[depalma113]

Slow is a relative term. Yes, it was the fastest Belmont since 2001 on a fast surface. Meanwhile, Honor Code ran the 6th fastest Met Mile in 120 years, Wedding Toast set the stakes record in the Phipps and March ran the 5th fastest Woody Stephens in its 30-year history. The track was blazing fast all day. It doesn't detract from American Pharoah's performance but the time was consistent with a strongly speed-carrying surface. It will be interesting to see how the speed figure organizations view it. I thought it was about 1 1/2 to 2 lengths better than par for the race.

Thanks for making my point. I pointed out after the Derby that the track had slowed down a lot. His Derby was much faster than the final time, yet no one wanted to listen. All I heard was he was whipped and he was slow.

[andtheyreoff]

No pal, I'm not a Hulkamania loving, root for the American hero chalk eating weasel. I know greatness when I see it.

AP was not impressive. His pace was equal to race 6, yes for older horses, yes it was 2/5 faster than Coach Inge but it was done with zero competition from the only pace horse in the race.

you want talent, look at a horse who wins 2 duels in 1 race and holds off a closer. Find a horse who is stressed through the fastest part of a race and finds the guts to win.

AP had 3 different type of cakewalk scenarios vs. horses who were compromised in all 3 TC races. He overcame ZERO obstacles.

He is no superhorse. Sorry to be a debbie downer. I've seen 50 claimers who were more impressive than this horse.

Should I get off your lawn now?

[EMD4ME]

That pari-mutuel window is a two-way street, alright.
Keeps me getting out of bed each day with a smile on my face. :)

Anyone who bet serious money on today's race,
or any of this year's TC races, needs their head examined.
They fall into the category of bettor that feels the need for recognition.
Bragging rights.

The 2015 Belmont Stakes was never about betting value.
Thank goodness there are those who think otherwise, though.

That's why I bet an "action" amount in the race. I know in my experience, I cash for 4K plus 8 out of 10 times in today's Belmont. Today was the day that the chalk was allowed to run his ultimate performance and I lost. I don't care, my wager was a 20/1 score if JV goes. I'd rather get 20/1 80% of the time then be one of the many on here who show up once a year and this year cash a ticket on a 3/5.

[depalma113]

Could not agree more. Great job calling AP from the get go :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:
Thank you

[EMD4ME]

Slow is a relative term. Yes, it was the fastest Belmont since 2001 on a fast surface. Meanwhile, Honor Code ran the 6th fastest Met Mile in 120 years, Wedding Toast set the stakes record in the Phipps and March ran the 5th fastest Woody Stephens in its 30-year history. The track was blazing fast all day. It doesn't detract from American Pharoah's performance but the time was consistent with a strongly speed-carrying surface. It will be interesting to see how the speed figure organizations view it. I thought it was about 1 1/2 to 2 lengths better than par for the race.


Great facts to point out but please stop being logical, wouldn't want to ruin the taste of the kool aid everyone had today LOL

[DeltaLover]

I did however, throw out AP as I truly believed JV would go with Materiality.

IMHO this was your mistake. Believing that Materiality could ever do any damage to AP!

I believe that many other (possibly sophisticated like yourself) handicappers, made exactly the same assumption.

The key to this race, was to know that Materiality's Beyer in the FlaDby was a fluke.. This is a very good example in favour of using custom figures; at least in my case, my custom figures were presenting vividly the inferiority of M, making the rest a pretty simple routine.

[EMD4ME]

Should I get off your lawn now?

Sorry, not being sarcastic, I don't get it. What do you mean?

[ArlJim78]

IMHO this was your mistake. Believing that Materiality could ever do any damage to AP!


He wanted Materiality to press the pace hard, to screw AP and set it up for Frosted, not because it made any sense whatsoever for Materialitys chances.

[andtheyreoff]

Great facts to point out but please stop being logical, wouldn't want to ruin the taste of the kool aid everyone had today LOL

You really should just stop now. You may try to play the role of being the "analytic horseplayer", but you're just coming off as grumpy and bitter.

I'll tell you man, it's not easy to do what he did (which is run the second half of the race faster than the first one), regardless of the pace.

[whodoyoulike]

It was a fantastic performance---accomplishing something no one else has in 37 years, blowing away the field in a very fast time. What else has to be said? Be glad you got a chance to see it because it was a long time coming.

This is the part which I don't understand why the others are criticizing. These were very good TC races and during those past 37 years too many close ones.

[highnote]

I've got the dirt routes so far:

Ogden Phipps S, Wedding Toast, -56
Brooklyn Invitational, Coach Inge, -55
Acorn S, Curalina, -31
Met Mile, Honor Code, -72
Belmont S, American Pharoah, -58


Visually, HC always seems to run slow early fractions because of his style, but he had a fast final time. Similar thing with AP -- moderate early fractions, but a fast final time.

Is it correct to assume that if HC and AP had run faster earlier their PFs would have been higher?

[TwirlingCandy]

Huge? Trash Candy, $10,000 is HUGE. $2,000 almost makes me sweat a drop of perspiritation. $200 is an action bet.

Don't forget to cash your $2 WPS wager. Make sure you move those pennies over and have room in your pants for those dimes and nickles you earned today.

Wow, it felt terrible stooping down to your level. Last response I'll give you, I just couldn't resist.
You said u couldn't wait for today. That it was going to be one of your biggest days blah blah blah

[EMD4ME]

IMHO this was your mistake. Believing that Materiality could ever do any damage to AP!

I believe that many other (possibly sophisticated like yourself) handicappers, made exactly the same assumption.

The key to this race, was to know that Materiality's Beyer in the FlaDby was a fluke.. This is a very good example in favour of using custom figures; at least in my case, my custom figures were presenting vividly the inferiority of M, making the rest a pretty simple routine.

I wasn't using the Beyer for the FLA derby. The track was deep that day, super deep at GP. Was using my own analysis of the charts, like I always do.

Nevertheless ,Materiality's beyers had nothing to do with him going 23 2/5 and 47 versus 24 4/5 and 49. That had everything to do with JV making it a complete NO GO.

You and I both know, if a horse needs the lead and needs it comfortably, you are at the mercy of the competition (do they allow you to go loose and comfortable).

Today, they did. He had no obstacles, no travesties to overcome, not even a challenge.

Congratulations to AP, he took what they gave him and he didn't blow it.

Not being negative but not impressed buddy. He did what he was supposed to do. Nothing more nothing less.

[EMD4ME]

He wanted Materiality to press the pace hard, to screw AP and set it up for Frosted, not because it made any sense whatsoever for Materialitys chances.


1) Pletcher said they were going to the lead, period.

2) My grandma could hit the lead in a 1 1/2 race.

Was is that unreasonable to believe that a talented, speed horse like Materiality would hit the lead or go head and head with the only other speed in the race?

The race was not 6F people. They didn't rattle off a 21 1/5 and Materiality couldn't keep up.

It wasn't a 1M race people with a 22 2/5 that JV wanted no part of and chose to sat off.

It was a 1 1/2 mile marathon with pedestrian fractions.

He simply decided to forfeit the race to AP. good for you and good for AP.

Happens all the time in horse racing. I am not complaining.

all I'm saying is they give him the TC, AP didn't throw it away, he's an ok horse. Stop acting like he jumped over an earhquake that opened up the earth at the 7/8th's, put away groovy in a duel and held off Zenyatta.

[classhandicapper]

if 24.32 is serious racehorse time then I want you to wager on Coach Inge in the Breeders Cup Classic at 1/9.

After all he came home in 23.96, he must be the second coming of Secretariat!! :p :p :p

Couple of points.

1. There was a bit of wind today that shifted during the day. So I don't think we'll be able to make definitive comparisons between the two sets of fractions.

2. The 8F and 10F fractions were about a second slower for Coach Inge

3. The recent history of the 3yos has been for them to struggle with the distance of the Belmont and come home slow. Given that AP had come home slow in the first 2 legs (albeit with a fast pace in the Preakness), I wasn't expecting a closing quarter like that. It's not a forgone conclusion that a slower pace will lead to a fast closing time on that kind of stretch out. I'm impressed because IMO he's not just a very fast horse. We've seen plenty of those. He's a legit 12F horse.

[highnote]

So, how fast do you think he should have gone in the early fractions?

I don't really have an opinion on how fast he should have run the early fractions. My point is that he ran as fast as he needed to. There really wasn't much early pressure. That's not Espinoza's fault.



Again, he led throughout the race. And, I'm learning a lot from everyone's negative responses. I hope you guys see the errors in your posts and are just being blinded by your emotions. If not then good, I hope we end up in the same wagering pools.

Not sure if this part of your post is aimed at me. I can only speak about what I saw today and then try to compare it to other Belmont Stakes.

AP won the TC and he did it in fast time off of a moderate pace without much of a challenge from any competitor and he was the only runner in all 3 TC races. He is the best of his generation. His tail male line is outstanding.

For me, there are more positives than negatives and I'm happy to have been able to see two TC winners in real time in my lifetime.

But this game is more than just cashing tickets. It's also about the improvement of the breed.

What, if any, is the relationship between AP's TC win and the improvement of the breed?

[LottaKash]

Anyone who bet serious money on today's race,
or any of this year's TC races, needs their head examined.


I am making an appointment right now...

This is what I will say to the Shrink:

"I feel so stupid, the only play I made was, a one way straight exacta with AP on top of Frosted, and it only paid close to 6/1"...

[raybo]

All the hater stuff from a couple of posters is to be expected when their horse(s) gets beat. My opinion of the race? Nobody was going to beat AP today, if he had been pressed harder he would have done what he needed to do to win. Good horses make their race, REGARDLESS OF WHAT THE COMPETITION OFFERS.

Sure it would have been more exciting to see a pace duel, in a mile and a half race, on a deep track like Belmont, with turns that go on forever, etc., etc., but I doubt seriously that would have made any difference in the winner's saddle cloth number today.

I, and most other decent 'cappers, thought AP was the horse to beat, no doubt about that for us, but we also knew that if the race was to be bet, at all, it would not be a bet on AP to win, or in an exacta. I had Frosted, MadeFromLucky, and Mubtaahij as my small win bets (yes, flat bet all 3), and had a smallish superfecta saver that included AP on the win line. So, my win bets lost but my saver got my money back plus a few bucks. This race was only a good betting race if you could beat AP for win and place, and that was no cinch, for sure. He's just that good, and needed to decline to get beat here.

So, basically, the race was a chance to make a few bucks (or a few more if AP didn't fire). But, the big thing about the race was a very good chance of seeing the first TC winner since '79. I, and my better half, were up on our feet in front of the TV jumping up and down at the 1/8th pole, because we knew he could only lose after that, if he broke down. This horse is very good, right now, and I hope like hell he races in the BCC, because I really think we haven't seen what he can really do yet, he's only done what he needed to do to win so far, nothing spectacular, because he hasn't needed to.

Congratulations to the horse, the jockey, the trainer, the owner, and all the thousands of true racing fans, who have endured all these many years of disappointment!!! :jump:

[ArlJim78]

1) Pletcher said they were going to the lead, period.

2) My grandma could hit the lead in a 1 1/2 race.

Was is that unreasonable to believe that a talented, speed horse like Materiality would hit the lead or go head and head with the only other speed in the race?

The race was not 6F people. They didn't rattle off a 21 1/5 and Materiality couldn't keep up.

It wasn't a 1M race people with a 22 2/5 that JV wanted no part of and chose to sat off.

It was a 1 1/2 mile marathon with pedestrian fractions.

He simply decided to forfeit the race to AP. good for you and good for AP.

Happens all the time in horse racing. I am not complaining.

all I'm saying is they give him the TC, AP didn't throw it away, he's an ok horse. Stop acting like he jumped over an earhquake that opened up the earth at the 7/8th's, put away groovy in a duel and held off Zenyatta.
You continue to misread everything about these horses.
AP was the fastest horse in the race, period. He was the talented speed horse in the race, not Materiality
Materiality has nothing in the pace department like AP has so there was nothing he could have thrown at AP to ruffle his feathers any.

Take a break from your delusional rants and please explain how JV pushing a faster pace would have resulted in a better finish for Materiality. As it happened he sat right off the pace and wilted.
Ok you lost big, publicly embarrassed yourself and are very butthurt about it all, we all have been there, but get a grip man.

[Strike The Gold]

1) Pletcher said they were going to the lead, period.

2) My grandma could hit the lead in a 1 1/2 race.

Was is that unreasonable to believe that a talented, speed horse like Materiality would hit the lead or go head and head with the only other speed in the race?

The race was not 6F people. They didn't rattle off a 21 1/5 and Materiality couldn't keep up.

It wasn't a 1M race people with a 22 2/5 that JV wanted no part of and chose to sat off.

It was a 1 1/2 mile marathon with pedestrian fractions.

He simply decided to forfeit the race to AP. good for you and good for AP.

Happens all the time in horse racing. I am not complaining.

all I'm saying is they give him the TC, AP didn't throw it away, he's an ok horse. Stop acting like he jumped over an earhquake that opened up the earth at the 7/8th's, put away groovy in a duel and held off Zenyatta.


I don't post often but feel compelled to post now. I've read your posts and sat here shaking my head. You say Johnny V sucks? Last I checked he's a HOF jockey. I should suck so much. Is AP a Secretariat? No but he ran the 6th fastest Belmont - not too shabby. He took on all comers; even horses that were rested, and he beat them. As a matter of fact, I think he beat all of the same horses in the past. Maybe that's why no one went with him. Who knows? You should change your screen name to "Negative Ned" - it would suit you better. Please don't respond. I just wanted to get this off my chest.

[horses4courses]

I am making an appointment right now...

This is what I will say to the Shrink:

"I feel so stupid, the only play I made was, a one way straight exacta with AP on top of Frosted, and it only paid close to 6/1"...

Don't tell me the next part.
The shrink looks at you in amazement, and says:
"That's incredible. My investment portfolio is really stagnant these days.
You're obviously clairvoyant, so I'd like you to manage a few million for me"
:rolleyes:

[rastajenk]

New item on my bucket list is to someday be in front of EMD4ME in the fast lane somewhere and slow it down to about whatever that big truck to my right is doing. :ThmbUp:

[Relwob Owner]

You continue to misread everything about these horses.
AP was the fastest horse in the race, period. He was the talented speed horse in the race, not Materiality
Materiality has nothing in the pace department like AP has so there was nothing he could have thrown at AP to ruffle his feathers any.

Take a break from your delusional rants and please explain how JV pushing a faster pace would have resulted in a better finish for Materiality. As it happened he sat right off the pace and wilted.
Ok you lost big, publicly embarrassed yourself and are very butthurt about it all, we all have been there, but get a grip man.


Totally agree and am I the only one thinking that this is getting into that SRU category of responding to the posts just making things worse? Hyperbole like AP being akin to a 50K claimer just makes it look the posts are just looking to incite responses.

I wasn't an AP believer and I was wrong. He blew me away today. He can lay just off or go to the lead and is an incredible horse. I thought if he did win, it would be in the 2:28-2:29 range and he blew that away. Awesome horse, awesome day. :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[horses4courses]

New item on my bucket list is to someday be in front of EMD4ME in the fast lane somewhere and slow it down to about whatever that big truck to my right is doing. :ThmbUp:

This :ThmbUp:

:lol: :lol: :lol:

[raybo]

What, if any, is the relationship between AP's TC win and the improvement of the breed?

Well, he can certainly get classic distances, sometimes quite easily, almost freakishly easy. He will, no doubt, be in high demand as a sire, which is half the way to improving the current breed. He's extremely healthy, no doubt durable, physically imposing, with great confirmation, high cruising speed, and a fantastic smooth comfortable stride, and well mannered and easy to train to boot.

I'd say there's a lot of upside for him, and any of his offspring who come from a worthy dam.

[LottaKash]

Don't tell me the next part.
The shrink looks at you in amazement, and says:
"That's incredible. My investment portfolio is really stagnant these days.
You're obviously clairvoyant, so I'd like you to manage a few million for me"
:rolleyes:


You did say that anyone who bet serious money on the Belmont and the other TC races should have their heads examined, right ?....

Not clairvoyant, but you made a silly statement is all....This is a betting game and there are many ways to play this game, is all... I just got lucky...

[highnote]

Well, he can certainly get classic distances, sometimes quite easily, almost freakishly easy. He will, no doubt, be in high demand as a sire, which is half the way to improving the current breed. He's extremely healthy, no doubt durable, physically imposing, with great confirmation, high cruising speed, and a fantastic smooth comfortable stride, and well mannered and easy to train to boot.

I'd say there's a lot of upside for him, and any of his offspring who come from a worthy dam.


Good points. If he is going to stud at Coolmore then no doubt that he'll get bred to some terrific dams.

I wonder if Pioneerof the Nile's stud fee will go up?

Empire Maker is now standing in Japan. Anyone know how his offspring are doing?

[clocker7]

Cool story about the trophy and its history:

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/07/sports/an-elusive-trophy-gleaming-through-the-smudges-of-hands-and-lips.html?_r=0

[castaway01]

New item on my bucket list is to someday be in front of EMD4ME in the fast lane somewhere and slow it down to about whatever that big truck to my right is doing. :ThmbUp:

Great line. :)

[tucker6]

Well, he can certainly get classic distances, sometimes quite easily, almost freakishly easy. He will, no doubt, be in high demand as a sire, which is half the way to improving the current breed. He's extremely healthy, no doubt durable, physically imposing, with great confirmation, high cruising speed, and a fantastic smooth comfortable stride, and well mannered and easy to train to boot.

I'd say there's a lot of upside for him, and any of his offspring who come from a worthy dam.
couldn't have said it better. :ThmbUp:

[PaceAdvantage]

I eat crow. Slow pace and a joke but congratulations. He deserves it.Nothing joke about it. It went EXACTLY as it should have...I couldn't have planned it better...although I did plan it exactly as it played out... :lol:

[castaway01]

This is the part which I don't understand why the others are criticizing. These were very good TC races and during those past 37 years too many close ones.

It's because the horse got to go slow early...which he did, relatively. But he still won, in a fast time, destroying a field of fresh runners, and doing what no other horse in 37 years has been able to do it. That's all he needed to do, yet because he's not Secretariat you've got some people who have to whine.

[highnote]

Nothing joke about it. It went EXACTLY as it should have...I couldn't have planned it better...although I did plan it exactly as it played out... :lol:


How was the crowd?

The last time I was there, I think it was the day there were 120,000 people and it was about 95 degrees. We had reserved seats in temporary bleachers. The seats were useless. We paid about $100 for them, but they were made of fiberglass and were in direct sunlight. They were too hot to sit in. Everybody in that section stood inside in the air conditioning.

So I'm thinking that 90,000 was a much better experience.

[PaceAdvantage]

I agree, a joke. They let him walk out front again and no one challenged him. These jocks have clocks in their head and see how fast a horse is moving in front of them. Came home like that because he was allowed to walk and have a full tank of gas for the stretch. I guess he's a TC winner though and racing fans who were mad in recent years at racings hard TC requirements, got their TC winner.

Anyway, Congrats Baffert! :)Nobody could run with him early. There was NOBODY in that field who had his early speed. It was right there in front of your face. Who exactly did you think could go with this horse early?

Materiality?

Really?

This race played exactly to form...scarily so...

I'm shocked the connections of AP did exactly what they were supposed to do...no game playing...no BSing...just go out and win baby...easy as pie. Best horse. Best early speed by a country mile...that's how you do it.

[PaceAdvantage]

So because they KNEW they has no shot to beat the horse, they stayed off him though slow fractions? Doesn't seem right? They just gave up in the beginning of the race? At least challenge a horse you know is walking. He walked and they knew he was walking. These are seasoned top jocks with clocks in their heads. He we all have different opinions. Got to have debates :)And if someone was dumb enough to try and run with him early, it would have been the same race, only slightly faster fractions early...

I said it before the race...we haven't seen the bottom of this horse...still haven't...and the whip counters in the Derby can keep counting.

[PaceAdvantage]

You want my honest reaction? I wasnt impressed. I saw an average horse just get treated like he is Secretariat. That was a joke of a boat race. John V must of been rooting for jose or something because he let him crawl out there for 3/4 of a mile.

Nobody will like my answer but it's the truth. To me, that's a tainted TC. 3 slow paces. 1 where 10 horses got ****ed at the gate. 1 win vs a mdspwt pig and a joke of a belmont where speed was more than benefitted.

I said it before and I'll say it again. if he wins, I eat crow but if he wins while walking on a slow pace, it won't be an earned win.

this was more of a : "let's give one out for the good of racing"I told you exactly how this race was going to play out. Any novice could see this horse had a tremendous early pace advantage.

I told you he was going to get the dreamiest trip you'd ever see...not his fault...he's a monster, and the final time confirms this...

Lots of you thought he'd be hard pressed to break 2:30 if he won...

That field was loaded with late speed and totally void of early speed, except American Pharoah...you knew this was going to happen.

Kudos to jock and trainer for doing the right thing and taking it gate to wire.

[iceknight]

Totally agree and am I the only one thinking that this is getting into that SRU category of responding to the posts just making things worse? Hyperbole like AP being akin to a 50K claimer just makes it look the posts are just looking to incite responses.

I wasn't an AP believer and I was wrong. He blew me away today. He can lay just off or go to the lead and is an incredible horse. I thought if he did win, it would be in the 2:28-2:29 range and he blew that away. Awesome horse, awesome day. :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: After the reading the whole thread and wasting a part of my life reading EMD's tasteless drivel, I can only conclude that once certain people start eating crow - they somehow start liking that taste so much that they can't get enough of it.

More than the time discussions the point to be noted is that he expanded his lead and won by 5 1/2 lengths. He is a a truly deserving TC champion :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

And good analysis on the home page Bossman

[PaceAdvantage]

Incredible, Materiality fades to dead last yet people wonder why he didn't push the pace more.Materiality was a non-contender...and it showed.

[PaceAdvantage]

Not my point. Pletcher said he's going to the lead no matter what. Gate opens, AP is not out quick. JV is out well, JV is not sending.

If if didn't know better, this race seemed fixed like a 4 claimer at Penn.

if JV goes hell bent to the lead, 2 scenarios happen:

1) AP earns an unmistakable Belmont win

2) AP loses to frosted.

now to me, it was a joke of a cakewalk for the chalk.You get the dickhead of the day award.

[ArlJim78]

Materiality was a non-contender...and it showed.
which was my point exactly. I predicted he'd be a pace casualty.
The Florida derby wasn't pretty. They staggered home and he stopped just after the wire. yet we've got folks talking about how he's a quality speed horse that should have gunned to the lead in a 12 furlong race.

[PaceAdvantage]

I'm not jealous. I'm happy for all involved 1) the game 2) the fans who love him and wagered on him 3) the owner/jockey/trainer etc.

I am just analyzing his effort as if I was analyzing a 10 claimer at Mountaineer on a Monday night as true winning horseplayers do.Any true winning horseplayer would see by now that there's a reason this horse keeps winning and beating all comers over all types of racetracks at all types of distances through all types of conditions.

[SandyW]

I predicted American Pharoah by 8, but he won by only 5 1/2.
I will not give back a penny of what I collected on him in a pretty sweet $54.00 tri that I had for a little more then a $20 bill.
My first winning day in over two weeks. This game is never easy even when you hit something. First reaction is always why didn't I bet more or bet the super.

[PaceAdvantage]

EMD4ME, I have all the respect in the world for you...but you seriously picked the wrong day to be vocal.

Take a lesson from thaskalos...when a horse kicks your pre-race prognostications so squarely in the teeth as AP did yours, you don't come on here and try to convince everyone you were still right... :lol: :lol: :lol:

You eat your crow in silence.

[nijinski]

You want my honest reaction? I wasnt impressed. I saw an average horse just get treated like he is Secretariat. That was a joke of a boat race. John V must of been rooting for jose or something because he let him crawl out there for 3/4 of a mile.

Nobody will like my answer but it's the truth. To me, that's a tainted TC. 3 slow paces. 1 where 10 horses got ****ed at the gate. 1 win vs a mdspwt pig and a joke of a belmont where speed was more than benefitted.

I said it before and I'll say it again. if he wins, I eat crow but if he wins while walking on a slow pace, it won't be an earned win.

this was more of a : "let's give one out for the good of racing"


Recalling you knew he'd be out of the money . Winning all three legs is
is special . Three different tracks ,Preakness under horrible conditions that
sometimes ends up in a next race bounce . Final time was pretty good .
Very much deserved !

[SandyW]

IMHO this was your mistake. Believing that Materiality could ever do any damage to AP!

I believe that many other (possibly sophisticated like yourself) handicappers, made exactly the same assumption.

The key to this race, was to know that Materiality's Beyer in the FlaDby was a fluke.. This is a very good example in favour of using custom figures; at least in my case, my custom figures were presenting vividly the inferiority of M, making the rest a pretty simple routine.

You are right, most speed numbers made at Gulfstream are suspect and never tranfered to another race track.

[SandyW]

Thanks Mike for an excellect breakdown of The Belmont before the race was run.

[iwearpurple]

Let me see if I have this correct.

I have spend the last hour reading END4ME rant and rave about American Pharoah not being a great horse, and not worthy of the Triple Crown. Yet the horse who he wanted to win, Frosted, apparently is not capable of beating AP by himself, but needed Materiality to pressure AP and wear him out. Still there is no guarantee that if he went with AP that AP would tire out. We will never know. What we do know is that AP has beaten everything that ran against him in the last 9 months (8 races, 7 wins). We also know that Frosted has won only 2 races in 9 attempts

He is crawling all over John Velaquez for not sending Materiality. Is it possible that Materiality was in over his head today and couldn't keep up? I don't know. One wonders how END4ME would feel if he was the owner of a horse in the Belmont and his trainer sacrificed all his horse's chance of winning a purse so that someone else would have a winner.

What we do know is that we have a Triple Crown winner and that is a needed boost for the sport of racing.

[Relwob Owner]

EMD4ME, I have all the respect in the world for you...but you seriously picked the wrong day to be vocal.

Take a lesson from thaskalos...when a horse kicks your pre-race prognostications so squarely in the teeth as AP did yours, you don't come on here and try to convince everyone you were still right... :lol: :lol: :lol:

You eat your crow in silence.

Actually, I don't think Thask was silent. Pretty sure I saw him post and he did the classy thing and acknowledged AP is the Champ.

[PaceAdvantage]

Yeah...he wanted Materiality, a horse who did not possess anywhere near the early speed of AP, to run with AP and further kill any chance Materiality might have had of actually winning the race or even finishing in the money.

Then he blames the jock for actually trying to run a winning race. AND on top of all that...he puts faith in Todd Pletcher saying they're going to the front... :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

Going to the front...yeah...right...what numbers are Todd and EMD4ME using if they thought Materiality had any shot of going to the front against AP? Keep using those numbers boys...they're working out well.

[PaceAdvantage]

Actually, I don't think Thask was silent. Pretty sure I saw him post and he did the classy thing and acknowledged AP is the Champ.Yeah, that's what I was referring to...you know what I meant. But thanks for trying to correct me...again...can Saratoga Mike be far behind? :lol:

You guys usually run a tag-team operation...

[menifee]

AP is a tremendous horse. He earned it. Easy pace or not, he still would have won. They're not in his league.

As for Materiality, I actually think he is a nice horse. That GP win took the starch out of him. He actually ran a respectable race in the Derby. I think they made a mistake running him in this spot. Too much too soon for this lightly raced horse. His lack of foundation and his last two races caught up to him.

[elysiantraveller]

Going to the front...yeah...right...what numbers are Todd and EMD4ME using if they thought Materiality had any shot of going to the front against AP? Keep using those numbers boys...they're working out well.

What I find somewhat ironic is all naysayers were typically questioning his ability to get the distance. While that isn't particularly a terrible angle... To get on and continue to complain is hilarious considering this performance demonstrated this horse is practically Invincible at 12 panels.

[RXB]

As for Materiality, I actually think he is a nice horse. That GP win took the starch out of him. He actually ran a respectable race in the Derby. I think they made a mistake running him in this spot. Too much too soon for this lightly raced horse. His lack of foundation and his last two races caught up to him.

At 6/1, and the only horse that I thought had any chance to make a race of it with AP, I was going to bet on Materiality... until I saw him on the track. That was the end of that idea.

[raybo]

Materiality was a non-contender...and it showed.

Sure wasn't on my contender list. :ThmbUp:

[tucker6]

What I find somewhat ironic is all naysayers were typically questioning his ability to get the distance. While that isn't particularly a terrible angle... To get on and continue to complain is hilarious considering this performance demonstrated this horse is practically Invincible at 12 panels.
good to see you posting again :ThmbUp:

[letswastemoney]

What I don't like about American Pharoah fans are how "in your face" they are about the whole thing.

Geez. Almost no one knows how to win in a classy manner.

[menifee]

At 6/1, and the only horse that I thought had any chance to make a race of it with AP, I was going to bet on Materiality... until I saw him on the track. That was the end of that idea.

Lol. I had the same exact reaction. I cancelled him in bets, but couldn't get out of the tourney plays. It was fairly obvious. I think John V. knew too. That's why he didn't send. I'm not a big workout guy, but when you have to be urged to stay with Stanford in your work prior to the race that probably tells you all you need to know.

[Relwob Owner]

Yeah, that's what I was referring to...you know what I meant. But thanks for trying to correct me...again...can Saratoga Mike be far behind? :lol:

You guys usually run a tag-team operation...

Relax man, I agreed with your point.

That had nothing to do with you at all, and was simply an atta boy to Thask for showing the class that EMD lacked.

As far as correcting you, no clue what you are talking about. If you want, find the last post I corrected you on, much less responded to you about....cant remember the last time I did or where me and Saratoga Mike ran a "tag team" operation on someone.

[thaskalos]

What I don't like about American Pharoah fans are how "in your face" they are about the whole thing.

Geez. Almost no one knows how to win in a classy manner.
Don't blame them. Those chalk-eaters are used to the lean years...so, they can be excused for overacting when they cash the occasional ticket...puny though it may be. :)

[PaceAdvantage]

What I don't like about American Pharoah fans are how "in your face" they are about the whole thing.

Geez. Almost no one knows how to win in a classy manner.Or lose.

[JustRalph]

After reading this thread.......... a few notes

Jcapper shows AP with a 20 point Early pace advantage over the 2nd horse.

the 2nd horse is Frosted in a virtual tie with Materiality and MadefromLucky

CJ tweeted this yesterday, and it was very enlightening for me.

"Materiality obviously had tough trip in Derby, but his Florida Derby hasn't exactly been a key race---field combined 0-13 since w/ one 3rd."

[PaceAdvantage]

Don't blame them. Those chalk-eaters are used to the lean years...so, they can be excused for overacting when they cash the occasional ticket...puny though it may be. :)It's not about cashing a ticket. It's about acknowledging a far-superior race horse.

Losers always move the goalposts. It goes from being a fantastic crop of deep 3yos...to a lousy crop because nobody can beat American Pharoah, who apparently, needs everything his own way, and dreamy trips to win... :lol: :lol: :lol:

Sometimes you just gotta admit you're wrong and acknowledge this is a special horse.

And I'm using the word "you" in a general sense. I'm not singling you out thask.

There's a difference between cashing a bet and discussing the talent of a racehorse.

I didn't cash squat in the Belmont, despite the fact that I picked the top three in exact order. I suck as a gambler...I'm an OK handicapper...and I've never claimed to be great at anything... :lol: :lol: :lol:

[JustRalph]

Watching this horse win like that with his ears pricked...... makes me wonder how fast he could have really finished up

[nads1420]

He's not done. The Haskell, Travers, and BC Classic are still on the list.



Going to be great in Monmouth.. cant wait...


just amazing.. so happy

[ultracapper]

If Jerry rode Materiality, we'd all be hailing Frosted the Belmont winner.

When Ramon got hurt, the last GREAT jockey left our continent. No one left (like Johnny V on the supposed 'I'm getting the lead no matter what" horse) and bullshit like this happens.

AP can rate. He doesn't need the lead. Did you happen to watch the Kentucky Derby this year? They can't set a pace too fast for him because he doesn't need the lead.

You obviously have some issue with something other than the horse. Maybe you gave out an opinion about him earlier this year and just refuse to admit you're wrong? Maybe?

[thaskalos]

It's not about cashing a ticket. It's about acknowledging a far-superior race horse.

Losers always move the goalposts. It goes from being a fantastic crop of deep 3yos...to a lousy crop because nobody can beat American Pharoah, who apparently, needs everything his own way, and dreamy trips to win... :lol: :lol: :lol:

Sometimes you just gotta admit you're wrong and acknowledge this is a special horse.

And I'm using the word "you" in a general sense. I'm not singling you out thask.

There's a difference between cashing a bet and discussing the talent of a racehorse.

I didn't cash squat in the Belmont, despite the fact that I picked the top three in exact order. I suck as a gambler...I'm an OK handicapper...and I've never claimed to be great at anything... :lol: :lol: :lol:

I disagree with you...you don't suck as a gambler. You did the right thing by betting against American Pharoah...and your decision remains the right thing to do, even AFTER your "loss". Given the circumstances, the horse wasn't worth 3/5. No horse in this entire world is worth 3/5...when it is asked to run a bastard distance that is only run once a year in the entire country. You would be a bad gambler if you TOOK the 3/5...IMO. Yes...you could have bet a $20 cold trifecta on your three picks...but you didn't because you knew going in that this outcome wasn't exactly a likely possibility either. Yes, it made sense...but "sense" seldom prevails at the Belmont, as far as the trifecta is concerned.

As far as your other point is concerned...I READILY acknowledge that I make mistakes similar to the one I made in this case, on a regular basis. At the OTB that I frequent...the manager has even threatened to evict me for excessive littering. I have no problem at all admitting that I was wrong. I am wrong a lot.

[Dahoss2002]

I teared up at the beginning of the race and I'm still crying. How amazing is this??????!!!!!! What a HORSE!!!!! I'm so happy I finally got to see a triple crown winner. Simply one of the most exciting days of my life.
Congrats Shelby!! This the first one since I started playing the ponies but the 4th one in my lifetime. I remember yall go to Arkansas sometimes for the Derby. Did you make it there this year? Wish I had.

[Dahoss2002]

I agree, a joke. They let him walk out front again and no one challenged him. These jocks have clocks in their head and see how fast a horse is moving in front of them. Came home like that because he was allowed to walk and have a full tank of gas for the stretch. I guess he's a TC winner though and racing fans who were mad in recent years at racings hard TC requirements, got their TC winner.

Anyway, Congrats Baffert! :)
Sometimes what you see is real. This is one of those times!!! Do not let figures or BS confuse what you witnessed in these 3 races.

[Dahoss2002]

Sorry if i think with logic and not with your kool aid on how good AP is.

Want to prove me wrong? Tell me 1 thing he did from a trip, pace perspective, in any of his races, that was impressive. Go ahead, I dare you. Just 1.....
Go back and watch video of all 3 triple crown races and go through all your scenarios of how he could be beat and watch how he progresses through the 3 races. Again, sometimes you have to believe what you see even if it is on TV. :cool:

[Dahoss2002]

You get the dickhead of the day award.
:lol: :ThmbUp:

[lamboguy]

if anyone read my line and trusted it before the Belmont when my price on him was 8 cents on the dollar to win the Belmont you will understand how great a price $3.50 for win was. yes once in awhile you can find value with short priced horses, i do it every day when i bet them.

the people that bet on this winner today were people that never bet a horse race their whole lives and may never bet one ever again. i put in bets for my mailman, the guy that owns a breakfast place that i go to, a friend that has never made made a bet his whole life. yet the linesmaker in New York knew what he was doing by making the line 3/5. all the people that think they know value kept on betting against the eventual winner to the race keeping the price up. once in awhile the sharps make mistakes and in the case of a big race like this one you can benefit from it. with the money in the pools you can step up and make a good bet and not budge the odds, i did this time, i have done it in the past and will do it again in the future.

[Man o' War]

Pharoah’s response to a cranked up Frosted in the stretch is enough for me. Now wasn’t this worth the wait? A truly great horse…

[Shelby]

Congrats Shelby!! This the first one since I started playing the ponies but the 4th one in my lifetime. I remember yall go to Arkansas sometimes for the Derby. Did you make it there this year? Wish I had.

:ThmbUp:


We didn't make it out there this year--wish we had....luckily I got to watch on TVG.

[NY BRED]

[QUOTE=zico20]One correction in your post. It was the 6th best time


Thanks for the correction, still charged since yesterday.

Do we agree this is the first Belmont winner to wire the field?

:jump: :jump: :jump: :jump: :jump: :jump: :jump:

#12 :jump: :jump: :jump: :jump: :jump: :jump:

[pandy]

[QUOTE=zico20]One correction in your post. It was the 6th best time


Thanks for the correction, still charged since yesterday.

Do we agree this is the first Belmont winner to wire the field?

:jump: :jump: :jump: :jump: :jump: :jump: :jump:

#12 :jump: :jump: :jump: :jump: :jump: :jump:

Affirmed, Secretariat and Seattle Slew all wired the field.

[EMD4ME]

AP can rate. He doesn't need the lead. Did you happen to watch the Kentucky Derby this year? They can't set a pace too fast for him because he doesn't need the lead.

You obviously have some issue with something other than the horse. Maybe you gave out an opinion about him earlier this year and just refuse to admit you're wrong? Maybe?

Nope, I was in the ICU and neurological unit for 54 days this spring with my mother who was hit by a car while standing in front of a store. I only left the hospital to attend to my aunt's funeral and wake.

I have nothing against AP. Didn't even see the Derby live.

I handicapped the Belmont (1 week before the Belmont) as if it's a 10 claimer at MNR on a monday and I am recapping it as if it's a 10 Claimer at MNR, with cold logic.

Sorry if that bothers people.

Congrats again to all AP followers.

[DeltaLover]

I handicapped the Belmont (1 week before the Belmont) as if it's a 10 claimer at MNR on a monday and I am recapping it as if it's a 10 Claimer at MNR, with cold logic.


So, you imply that the same logic applies to a 10K CLM and a TC event?

[EMD4ME]

Go back and watch video of all 3 triple crown races and go through all your scenarios of how he could be beat and watch how he progresses through the 3 races. Again, sometimes you have to believe what you see even if it is on TV. :cool:


You really believed he progressed in the Preaknesss? Beating up on a pig who had no speed (Mr.Z) and beating a suck up donkey by 5 (with a lifetime beyer top of 72)?

Please keep betting.

sorry, AP was not impressive in any one of the 3 TC races. If he was, I'd say so. He was not.

Most people on here, don't know me that well, except for Delta. I am a rare horseplayer in that I have NO EGO. I am not saying he wasn't impressive because I didn't pick him or etc etc. I am simply judging the horse as I judge all horses I watch in hundreds of thousands of replays.

He's a good horse that got fantastic trips/pace scenarios against other horses who didn't get the same benefit, which makes him look better than he is.

Am I saying he's a weak horse? Absolutely not. I am saying he is not to be touted as a Seattle Slew, a Secretariat, A Cigar, A Sunday Silence, A Silver Charm. He's not fellas.

If AP would've had the trip Smarty had in his Belmont, AP would not have lost by a length. He would've lost by many more.

How about we talk after AP finds his first race with a stressful trip?

[thaskalos]

I thought this horse would need an oxygen tank during the last quarter mile of the Belmont. Seeing that he was slowing down noticeably during the latter parts of his races, I was convinced that the Belmont stretch run would find him in "no-man's land". And I retained that feeling up until the horses made that final turn, and headed into the stretch. I expected this horse to make the pace, and I expected the pace to be slow; there are no "speed duels" in marathon races. And I expected him to hold a narrow lead during the race's early stages.

But instead of needing oxygen down the stretch, as I had predicted...American Pharoah grew wings...and flew into racing's immortality. I tore up my mutuel tickets, but did so with a smile on my face, and a lump in my throat...because more money I would surely get to see again...but I was unsure about ever seeing another horse like this again.

The Pharoah reminded me of why I first fell in love with this game...

PS...

Much respect for my friend DeltaLover...who had labeled this horse as "something special". I doubted both DL and the Pharoah...but no longer. :ThmbUp:

[horses4courses]

There will always be those who visit any one, or all,
of the seven wonders of the world then ask "is that it?"

[EMD4ME]

So, you imply that the same logic applies to a 10K CLM and a TC event?

In many ways yes. Because handicapping with your heart leads to blinding a handicapper. Par pace is par pace, par time is par time, regardless of level. And in G1 races it is expected that jockeys and connections try harder, that wasn't the case in the Belmont. it was a boat race with no one and I mean no one trying to win except for AP.

It's as if I was watching the 5th at PENN yesterday. All jocks have their choreographed orders and they all carried them out to obey Stephanie.

To me, AP did nothing wrong in his 3 TC races. He did what he was supposed to do. He faced no adversity, not his fault. He didn't need to overcome anything, not his fault. My point is, he is no megastar until he sees something to overcome and does so.

Finally, I'm not talking about overcoming a bad stumble, a check etc. I'm talking subtly difficult tasks, like overcoming a stressful trip, being hooked by a real race horse (sorry but Firing line is not a G1 horse), overcoming a fast internal fraction against a foe who is trying to win.

Again, he won, he did what he was supposed to do. He deserves accolades but not to the extent where he's the greatest horse of all time.

Heck, he's not even the best 3 yo in the last decade. Smarty Jones was way better, Afleet Alex was miles better, Big Brown was way better.

He just happened to get what those 3 couldn't get. Cakewalk trips in all TC races.

[PaceAdvantage]

Ysorry, AP was not impressive in any one of the 3 TC races. If he was, I'd say so. He was not. I apologize to you for going off on you last night. I was on fire after spending the day at Belmont and cheering AP down the stretch along with 90,000 other people...that was pretty awesome.

However, I leave you with this:

2:26.65

24.06
24.77
24.58
24.58
24.34
24.32

You must be pretty jaded to not be impressed by that. If I had posted that final time before the race, along with those internal fractions, and predicted that would be AP's numbers in the Belmont Stakes, there wouldn't be enough LOL emoticons in the world left for you to complete your reply to me. You and everyone else would have laughed me off this board.

Yet that's the race he ran, and you remain unimpressed. I guess there's nothing else to say.

[EMD4ME]

I thought this horse would need an oxygen tank during the last quarter mile of the Belmont. Seeing that he was slowing down noticeably during the latter parts of his races, I was convinced that the Belmont stretch run would find him in "no-man's land". And I retained that feeling up until the horses made that final turn, and headed into the stretch. I expected this horse to make the pace, and I expected the pace to be slow; there are no "speed duels" in marathon races. And I expected him to hold a narrow lead during the race's early stages.

But instead of needing oxygen down the stretch, as I had predicted...American Pharoah grew wings...and flew into racing's immortality. I tore up my mutuel tickets, but did so with a smile on my face, and a lump in my throat...because more money I would surely get to see again...but I was unsure about ever seeing another horse like this again.

The Pharoah reminded me of why I first fell in love with this game...

PS...

Much respect for my friend DeltaLover...who had labeled this horse as "something special". I doubted both DL and the Pharoah...but no longer. :ThmbUp:


Let me start by saying, yes, if AP wins, I want and expect everyone on here to bash me, criticize me and I will eat all the crow for a week. Unlike others, I man up when I'm wrong. I deserve it all :) :) :)

Not to redboard but I said it before the Belmont, so it's not an excuse. His only chance was to walk unpressured through 1M of soft fractions and then he could finish and win. This was evidenced by his OP race where he crawled through 3/4's in 115 and change and sprinted home in 24.

Sorry but that OP race didn't impress me and this Belmont did not impress me. Any horse can be given that lead, with no pressure and sprint home, even at 1 1/2 miles.

Hate to be the villain here but facts are facts.

Nice horse, yes. Ultra champion of the century? HA Absolutely not.

[Grits]

You eat your crow in silence.

Thank you. I've never had a problem eating crow. Not here, or anywhere else.

AP was mind blowing....and I've never clapped and screamed so hard or so loudly. It was incredible to be a part of this historical Triple Crown win. A special day in New York City for all fans.

NYRA did an absolutely outstanding job with crowds, with traffic, not even to mention, with the racing card and, too, Andy Serling & Co.'s analysis throughout the day. Thank you all for a memorable day at the track.

[DeltaLover]

Much respect for my friend DeltaLover...who had labeled this horse as "something special". I doubted both DL and the Pharoah...but no longer. :ThmbUp:

During the last 20 years, I have bet thousand of dollars always AGAINST a possible TC winner. As I have told you before, in Big Brown's Belmont, I made a HUGE bet against him, as I was convinced he had no shot to even hit the board.. By no means I am the handicapper who is easily convinced about the greatness of a specific horse...

When I saw AP finishing in the Preakness, I immediately felt, that this horse is something special and I was sure that he was going to win the Triple Crown was.. This feeling overshadowed my satisfaction of my long-shot in the race Tale of Verve, coming second, something that accounted to a minor payout for me (I had the $124 paying exacta for $27).. Honestly, I can not recall this kind of an impression ever happening to me before..

[classhandicapper]

You really believed he progressed in the Preaknesss? Beating up on a pig who had no speed (Mr.Z) and beating a suck up donkey by 5 (with a lifetime beyer top of 72)?

Please keep betting.

sorry, AP was not impressive in any one of the 3 TC races. If he was, I'd say so. He was not.

Most people on here, don't know me that well, except for Delta. I am a rare horseplayer in that I have NO EGO. I am not saying he wasn't impressive because I didn't pick him or etc etc. I am simply judging the horse as I judge all horses I watch in hundreds of thousands of replays.

He's a good horse that got fantastic trips/pace scenarios against other horses who didn't get the same benefit, which makes him look better than he is.

Am I saying he's a weak horse? Absolutely not. I am saying he is not to be touted as a Seattle Slew, a Secretariat, A Cigar, A Sunday Silence, A Silver Charm. He's not fellas.

If AP would've had the trip Smarty had in his Belmont, AP would not have lost by a length. He would've lost by many more.

How about we talk after AP finds his first race with a stressful trip?

I think you are missing something very subtle about his trip yesterday. At first glance it looks he was on a loose lead getting an easy trip. But that's not what actually happened.

Materiality TRIED to make a run at him on the back but AP scooted away and put him away.

Then Mubtaahij TRIED to make a run at him, but he just scooted away and put him away.

Then Frosted TRIED to make a run at him, but he just scooted away and drew off.

I was at the Seattle Slew/Affirmed race. I'm not trying to compare the horses. But that race was illustrative of the point I am trying to make.

After it was over the Seattle Slew haters were out in force saying that Slew had a loose lead and huge tactical advantage. But that's not what Steve Cauthen said after the race. To paraphrase. "Every time I went after him, he had another gear I didn't have. I couldn't get to him". Slew went on to show what he was made of in the Gold Cup.

Sometimes horses are loose not because the other horses aren't trying to pressure the leader. It's because every time they try to get to him he scoots away effortlessly because he so much better than them.

That's what happened yesterday. Those was very good horses TRYING to put pressure on him but he swatted them away like gnats before they could even get to him. They tired off and he kept running....fast.

[EMD4ME]

I apologize to you for going off on you last night. I was on fire after spending the day at Belmont and cheering AP down the stretch along with 90,000 other people...that was pretty awesome.

However, I leave you with this:

2:26.65

24.06
24.77
24.58
24.58
24.34
24.32

You must be pretty jaded to not be impressed by that. If I had posted that final time before the race, along with those internal fractions, and predicted that would be AP's numbers in the Belmont Stakes, there wouldn't be enough LOL emoticons in the world left for you to complete your reply to me. You and everyone else would have laughed me off this board.

Yet that's the race he ran, and you remain unimpressed. I guess there's nothing else to say.

Hey PA. No need to apologize pal. I have it ALLLLL coming to me and I am here ready to take it from everyone my friend.

Those fractions are not that impressive to me.

Why?

1)Look at race 6. Coach Inge does not strike you as a monster does he? Wicked Strong isn't in top form is he?

2) The track played real fast yesterday. Regardless of the Met result, it played towards speed and it carried fast.

3) He ran those fractions unpressured, galloping the whole way. I am not of the school of if a horse was asked he would go faster. If left unpressured, while in a comfortable gallop, horses run their peak races.

But yet again, I'll say it. He ran the race of his life, in OPTIMAL circumstances. He wasn't asked to overcome anything, that's not his fault. Good for AP. Good for racing, good for all rooters of AP. I am happy for him.

I'll set up my next ass kicking now, I can't wait for his next run. I hope he finds a field who will try and win and I can't wait to see if there is a play against him.

If his next race is against foes who I don't like, I won't pick against him but if there's a play (other speeds in the race, good field, unique scenario I like etc.) you will hear from me again !!! LOL

Congrats again

[EMD4ME]

I think you are missing something about his trip yesterday. At first glance it looks he was on a loose lead getting an easy trip. But that's not what actually happened.

Materiality TRIED to make a run at him on the back but AP scooted away and put him away.

Then Mubtaahij TRIED to make a run at him, but he just scooted away and put him away.

Then Frosted TRIED to make a run at him, but he just scooted away and drew off.

I was at the Seattle Slew/Affirmed race. I'm not trying to compare the horses. But that race was illustrative of the point I am trying to make.

After it was over the Seattle Slew haters were out in force saying that Slew had a loose lead an huge tactical advantage. But that's not what Steve Cauthen said after the race. To paraphrase. "Every time I went after him, he had another gear I didn't have. I couldn't get to him". Slew went on to show what he was made of in the Gold Cup.

Sometimes horses are loose not because the other horses are slow, weak, and not trying to pressure the leader. It's because every time they try to get to him he scoots away effortlessly because he so much better than them.

That's what happened yesterday. Those was very good horses TRYING to put pressure on him but he swatted them away like gnats.

I respect this point a lot. No rebuttal to it except for this:

Materiality should've been sent hell bent to the lead early. Don't tell me if JV hustled or just simply encouraged his mount at all in the opening stages that Materiality couldn't keep up with AP in a joke of a first quarter of 24.06.

It was this first quarter, with a length advantage that set up the inability for anyone to pressure him thereafter.

Your point is excellent though and it was the case as they were running down the backstretch and far turn. I respect that. They could not get near him but again that was because of JV and his no go early.

we've seen it happen with lone speeds many times. in 10 claimers, stakes, alw races. Steal the opening quarter and the race is yours if the talent levels are similar. No matter how much the equal horse tries to catch up in the second/third quarter, they can't as the leader has the same energy reserves and a head start. Simple pace handicapping.

[EMD4ME]

During the last 20 years, I have bet thousand of dollars always AGAINST a possible TC winner. As I have told you before, in Big Brown's Belmont, I made a HUGE bet against him, as I was convinced he had no shot to even hit the board.. By no means I am the handicapper who is easily convinced about the greatness of a specific horse...

When I saw AP finishing in the Preakness, I immediately felt, that this horse is something special and I was sure that he was going to win the Triple Crown was.. This feeling overshadowed my satisfaction of my long-shot in the race Tale of Verve, coming second, something that accounted to a minor payout for me (I had the $124 paying exacta for $27).. Honestly, I can not recall this kind of an impression ever happening to me before..

That is correct Delta. You hate Chalk. For you to love this chalk, shows that you think he is something special.

Congrats again as you never pick the chalk. YOU my friend, brought us all a TRIPLE CROWN !

[PaceAdvantage]

When I saw AP finishing in the Preakness, I immediately felt, that this horse is something special and I was sure that he was going to win the Triple Crown was..I was the same exact way watching him finish in the Preakness. I said on this board before the Derby, if he wins the Derby, he wins the Triple Crown. I've never said that before about a horse in my 15+ years running this board.

Morning of the Derby:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?p=1815137&highlight=Triple+Crown#post1815137

[EMD4ME]

I was the same exact way watching him finish in the Preakness. I said on this board before the Derby, if he wins the Derby, he wins the Triple Crown. I've never said that before about a horse in my 15+ years running this board.

Morning of the Derby:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?p=1815137&highlight=Triple+Crown#post1815137


yes you did PA. My sincerest Congratulations SIR!!!! Enjoy.

[Tom]

However, I leave you with this:

2:26.65

24.06
24.77
24.58
24.58
24.34
24.32

Well there you go...that snails-pace 2nd quarter gave him he edge. :D

Hey, who cares how he did it...he friggin' DID IT.
After 37 years...we talked about the 25 years before Secretariat.
And we though he couldn't get a mile and a half. And we thought the TC was too hard, then after Affirmed, we thought it was too easy.

Enjoy it. More men have walked on the moon than won a TC (NBC).

This morning, the orange juice was a little bit sweeter, the bacon a little bit crispier. Racing got a perfect day of publicity with no black eyes.

What more could we have asked for?

[thaskalos]

I respect this point a lot. No rebuttal to it except for this:

Materiality should've been sent hell bent to the lead early. Don't tell me if JV hustled or just simply encouraged his mount at all in the opening stages that Materiality couldn't keep up with AP in a joke of a first quarter of 24.06.

It was this first quarter, with a length advantage that set up the inability for anyone to pressure him thereafter.

Your point is excellent though and it was the case as they were running down the backstretch and far turn. I respect that. They could not get near him but again that was because of JV and his no go early.

we've seen it happen with lone speeds many times. in 10 claimers, stakes, alw races. Steal the opening quarter and the race is yours if the talent levels are similar. No matter how much the equal horse tries to catch up in the second/third quarter, they can't as the leader has the same energy reserves and a head start. Simple pace handicapping.

I disagree with you on the bolded points above. No jockey would go "hell bent" for the early lead in a marathon...regardless of what statements were made pre-race. There were legitimate concerns about AP's stamina going into the Belmont...and a jockey could be forgiven for staying a length off the pacesetter in the early going, even when the pace is slow. When you steal the first quarter in a sprint, then yes...the race is yours if the talent level is there. But stealing the first quarter in a marathon does not lead to the same forgone conclusion, IMO. You and I have gone to different pace handicapping schools.

[classhandicapper]

Materiality should've been sent hell bent to the lead early. Don't tell me if JV hustled or just simply encouraged his mount at all in the opening stages that Materiality couldn't keep up with AP in a joke of a first quarter of 24.06.



I understand your point.

The most likely scenario is that Pletcher knew that AP is a lot faster than Materiality. So if he gunned, he could not outrun AP. He "might" get AP beat if he gunned long enough, but he'd surely be sacrificing his own horse. So the connections decided to go out and get good position and make a run at him later when he might be a little weaker. They couldn't.

A second possibility is that horses are trained a little differently for 12F. Their speed isn't quite as sharp.

What you seem to be asking for is other connections to make suicidal moves in the first quarter/half just to demonstrate that AP can get beat and you can cash a bet. Those things happen, but those are the crazy things. Not what happened yesterday. There were no unrateable pure speeds in that race.

[EMD4ME]

I disagree with you on the bolded points above. No jockey would go "hell bent" for the early lead in a marathon...regardless of what statements were made pre-race. There were legitimate concerns about AP's stamina going into the Belmont...and a jockey could be forgiven for staying a length off the pacesetter in the early going, even when the pace is slow. When you steal the first quarter in a sprint, then yes...the race is yours if the talent level is there. But stealing the first quarter in a marathon does not lead to the same forgone conclusion, IMO. You and I have gone to different pace handicapping schools.

Yes but in this case, we knew, or at least I did, that if AP stole the pace, he WOULD finish strong. His race OP demonstrated that. It was his only race where he finished fast.

If I owned Materiality, heres my strategy: Spend energy in the first 120 yards, clear AP. There is no way Jose would've attacked Materiality early if Materiality would've cleared. You give yourself a shot to win by doing that.

You sit second, with no attempts to go until after 3/4 are run??? Of course AP will have more, he exhibited that in his OP race.

Pletcher said we're going to the lead. That is why I'm pissed they didn't. It would've changed the whole race.

[EMD4ME]

I understand your point.

The most likely scenario is that Pletcher knew that AP is a lot faster than Materiality. So if he gunned, he could not outrun AP. He "might" get AP beat if he gunned long enough, but he'd surely be sacrificing his own horse. So the connections decided to go out and get good position and make a run at him later when he might be a little weaker. They couldn't.

A second possibility is that horses are trained a little differently for 12F. Their speed isn't quite as sharp.

What you seem to be asking for is other connections to make suicidal moves in the first quarter/half just to demonstrate that AP can get beat and you can cash a bet. Those things happen, but those are the crazy things. Not what happened yesterday. There were no unrateable pure speeds in that race.

I wasn't looking for a suicide sent to sacrifice, although that would've made me smile LOL.

All I asked for was to NOT to do what these NYRA pinheads seem to always do. Break well and CHOKE like you're in the WWE.

To compound it, Pletcher says on TV we're going the lead, we're going to the lead.

I should've known they're not going. Been around long enough to know that if they say one thing, they mean another!!! LOL

[RXB]

The jockey has the horse he has; he can't make it run if it's not in good shape.

Materiality was positioned right where he figured to be and where they wanted to be: on AP's outside flank. But the post parade and warmup gave me strong reasons to believe that he wasn't ready for such a test. And in retrospect, from what I saw from AP I don't think Materiality could've won even if he had been in good condition. At best he'd have forced the issue more and given a bit more for hope to Frosted (the only other true G1 horse in the field). The rest of the field was totally outclassed.

So the class of the field who was also looking very good in his workouts was left to his own devices on the front end, on a day where I would say the track was moderately above-average in terms of favouring speed. The result is no surprise.

This horse is six-for-six in G1 races. He's won them on poly, wet dirt, fast dirt, everything from 7f-12f, won one of them by a length and the rest by at least five lengths. He's won four of them on the lead and two others sitting second and third. He's as good a 3YO as we've seen since Sunday Silence and Easy Goer. He won the TC fair and square.

[classhandicapper]

All I asked for was to NOT to do what these NYRA pinheads seem to always do. Break well and CHOKE like you're in the WWE.



You are obviously a sharp guy. I hope you don't mind me telling you about a lesson I learned years ago.

When what you think "should be" happening is not happening, it's you that needs to adjust your thinking.

I remember years ago Jorge Velasquez consistently choking my "loose lead" horses back. Who know how many bets I lost thinking he would ride aggressively only to watch him choke or take back. At some point, I became the pinhead. ;)

[horses4courses]

I disagree with you on the bolded points above. No jockey would go "hell bent" for the early lead in a marathon...regardless of what statements were made pre-race. There were legitimate concerns about AP's stamina going into the Belmont...and a jockey could be forgiven for staying a length off the pacesetter in the early going, even when the pace is slow. When you steal the first quarter in a sprint, then yes...the race is yours if the talent level is there. But stealing the first quarter in a marathon does not lead to the same forgone conclusion, IMO. You and I have gone to different pace handicapping schools.

Exactly right.

They had to give their horses the best chance of winning.
That is what those riders did. They were beaten by a superior horse.

The only way to have pressured AP yesterday was to have entered
at least one "rabbit" in the race and, even if they had, AP was still
going to run the fractions that he did. Unless Espinoza fell for the
bait, the horse was still going to run the way he did - and win.

[Tom]

.

[magwell]

I wasn't looking for a suicide sent to sacrifice, although that would've made me smile LOL.

All I asked for was to NOT to do what these NYRA pinheads seem to always do. Break well and CHOKE like you're in the WWE.

To compound it, Pletcher says on TV we're going the lead, we're going to the lead.

I should've known they're not going. Been around long enough to know that if they say one thing, they mean another!!! LOLWhat a bunch of nonsense you speak, just let it go already, people are lol at you man, stop it PLEASE.......:D

[charm city whizz]

.

They come up with great covers, gotta go out and find a post and daily news somewhere in Maryland

[ArlJim78]

Triple Crown TVG style. good video here.

F7TL2IvQ2p4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=239&v=F7TL2IvQ2p4

[raybo]

I wasn't looking for a suicide sent to sacrifice, although that would've made me smile LOL.

All I asked for was to NOT to do what these NYRA pinheads seem to always do. Break well and CHOKE like you're in the WWE.

To compound it, Pletcher says on TV we're going the lead, we're going to the lead.

I should've known they're not going. Been around long enough to know that if they say one thing, they mean another!!! LOL

You seem to sound more and more amateurish as you go along. Any serious player would never believe what trainers say about their intentions before a race (unless they know the trainer and jockey personally, and I mean "very" personally). As I stated in an earlier post, NOBODY was going to beat AP in that race, on that track. The pace was sufficiently fast for a 1 1/2m race at Belmont. When horses, supposedly, are sent to press a strong early type and find that the pace is already fast enough for their purposes, only a very green or stupid jockey would make it even faster, that would b counterproductive to their plan. Their plan is to guarantee a legitimate pace, not commit suicide. The pace yesterday was legitimate considering the distance and track they were running. Had any of them wanted to press closer or even try for the lead, AP would have just stepped up his cruising speed a fraction and he would have just kept going. Again, nobody was going to beat him yesterday.

I'm sorry Emd, you're just wrong on this one. AP may not be another Secretariat, but nobody here is saying that, nobody is saying he's a Seattle Slew, or an Affirmed either. But, in this day and age, he is a very special horse, and I expect we'll see just how good he is later this year, at least we'll see how good he "has to be" to continue winning anyway. Horses that are this good do what they have to do to win, and sometimes that doesn't look very impressive, but a horse that runs this smoothly, with the length of stride that he has, make things look rather mundane sometimes. But, that doesn't mean the horse is mundane, it just means that he does it easier than others. But, don't be fooled, if AP runs in a more stressful situation he'll likely find a way to win, he doesn't need a slow pace and he doesn't need to be on the lead either, he just wins regardless.

[FiveWide]

Pletcher said we're going to the lead. That is why I'm pissed they didn't. It would've changed the whole race.

This happens ALL the time in horse racing and in other sports. How many times have you seen a broadcast reporter ask a trainer or jockey before a race their strategy and they decline to give away what their going to do. Maybe Pletcher knew his only shot to beat AP was to try reverse psychology. Same thing happens in football. Coaches quite often give out false information to hopefully gain an edge.

Glad to see a triple crown finally. Hopefully this will give our sport a much needed boost! :ThmbUp:

-Five

[FiveWide]

Triple Crown TVG style. good video here.

F7TL2IvQ2p4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=239&v=F7TL2IvQ2p4

Really cool and different perspective. Thanks for posting! :cool:

-Five

[pandy]

Has anyone compared his splits and final time to Da Tara's?

He looked pretty damn good to me.

[OntheRail]

I handicapped the Belmont (1 week before the Belmont) as if it's a 10 claimer at MNR on a monday and I am recapping it as if it's a 10 Claimer at MNR, with cold logic.

Sorry if that bothers people.

Congrats again to all AP followers.

Your just a gambler... not a Betting Fan of the Sport. You played the odds 37-0 and overlooked the 400 lb gorilla.


You really believed he progressed in the Preaknesss? Beating up on a pig who had no speed (Mr.Z) and beating a suck up donkey by 5 (with a lifetime beyer top of 72)?

Please keep betting.

sorry, AP was not impressive in any one of the 3 TC races. If he was, I'd say so. He was not.

Most people on here, don't know me that well, except for Delta. I am a rare horseplayer in that I have NO EGO. I am not saying he wasn't impressive because I didn't pick him or etc etc. I am simply judging the horse as I judge all horses I watch in hundreds of thousands of replays.

He's a good horse that got fantastic trips/pace scenarios against other horses who didn't get the same benefit, which makes him look better than he is.

Am I saying he's a weak horse? Absolutely not. I am saying he is not to be touted as a Seattle Slew, a Secretariat, A Cigar, A Sunday Silence, A Silver Charm. He's not fellas.

If AP would've had the trip Smarty had in his Belmont, AP would not have lost by a length. He would've lost by many more.

How about we talk after AP finds his first race with a stressful trip?

And apparently Bitter One at that... Can't Enjoy the majestic tree in a Forest. :rolleyes:

[highnote]

It's hard to argue that AP did not deserve the TC. It's hard to argue that he did not win it fair and square. It's hard to argue that he is not the best of his generation. AP did everything that was asked of him during this spring campaign. He is a champion.

To my mind, the important questions are how does he compare to other great champions and what kind of a sire will he be.

We can use speed figures to give an idea of how horses compare across generations.

Beyer gave AP a 105.

A 105 Beyer is consistent with Steve Roman's Performance Figure of -58 for AP's Belmont Stakes.

I believe Beyer said that Secretariat would have gotten a 130 speed figure in the Belmont Stakes. A 130 Beyer would equal about a -123 Performance Figure.

AP's low figure might be of interest to breeders who want to breed horses that can win the spring classics. If the breed has shifted toward an emphasis on speed (which the data suggests) then there might be better sires to choose from to try to produce a classic winner than AP. On the other hand, if there are no sires who are transmitting the right mix of speed and stamina over classic distances then a sire like AP might be the best choice.

I'm in the early stages of learning about breeding and certainly not an expert, but this is how I'd think about it.

[Light]

Affirmed, Secretariat and Seattle Slew all wired the field.

Not according to the NBC commentators. He said (I forget which one) that only Da Tara and Assault did. So after you said this I looked at Seattle Slew's race and although he kind of went w-w, he actually got headed a couple of times and technically did not have the lead a couple of times. He certainly had some pressure which makes his win more impressive compared to the "cake walk" of the Pharoah. Don't mean "cake walk" in the negative sense but I would have liked to see Pharoah "earn" it more.

I think what they mean by w-w is that no horse looked at the leader in the eye during any point in the race. I was disappointed with the lame effort by Materiality. But it's clear that horse should not have even been in the race and was a non factor throughout.

Despite the lack of a challenge, Pharoah showed me for the first time that he was a TC caliber horse despite no pressure. However I still think this group of 3yo's is one of the weakest I have ever seen.

[OntheRail]

Well there you go...that snails-pace 2nd quarter gave him he edge. :D

Hey, who cares how he did it...he friggin' DID IT.
After 37 years...we talked about the 25 years before Secretariat.
And we though he couldn't get a mile and a half. And we thought the TC was too hard, then after Affirmed, we thought it was too easy.

Enjoy it. More men have walked on the moon than won a TC (NBC).

This morning, the orange juice was a little bit sweeter, the bacon a little bit crispier. Racing got a perfect day of publicity with no black eyes.

What more could we have asked for?

:ThmbUp:

[horses4courses]

You seem to sound more and more amateurish as you go along. Any serious player would never believe what trainers say about their intentions before a race (unless they know the trainer and jockey personally, and I mean "very" personally). As I stated in an earlier post, NOBODY was going to beat AP in that race, on that track. The pace was sufficiently fast for a 1 1/2m race at Belmont. When horses, supposedly, are sent to press a strong early type and find that the pace is already fast enough for their purposes, only a very green or stupid jockey would make it even faster, that would b counterproductive to their plan. Their plan is to guarantee a legitimate pace, not commit suicide. The pace yesterday was legitimate considering the distance and track they were running. Had any of them wanted to press closer or even try for the lead, AP would have just stepped up his cruising speed a fraction and he would have just kept going. Again, nobody was going to beat him yesterday.

I'm sorry Emd, you're just wrong on this one. AP may not be another Secretariat, but nobody here is saying that, nobody is saying he's a Seattle Slew, or an Affirmed either. But, in this day and age, he is a very special horse, and I expect we'll see just how good he is later this year, at least we'll see how good he "has to be" to continue winning anyway. Horses that are this good do what they have to do to win, and sometimes that doesn't look very impressive, but a horse that runs this smoothly, with the length of stride that he has, make things look rather mundane sometimes. But, that doesn't mean the horse is mundane, it just means that he does it easier than others. But, don't be fooled, if AP runs in a more stressful situation he'll likely find a way to win, he doesn't need a slow pace and he doesn't need to be on the lead either, he just wins regardless.

This :ThmbUp:

Well said, sir

[comet52]

I really enjoyed myself yesterday. When I was a kid in the 70's, the racing world was full of the same doubts I've heard the last few years. The Triple Crown could never be won again, etc. Then along came 3 champions in 6 years. People thought it would be easy and keep happening. Seeing so many horses get a chance and fail in the last 20 years shows what a truly amazing accomplishment it is that we just witnessed. It was great for the sport and for all of us who love racing to see.

When I saw AP kill it in the Arkansas derby I just got a feeling he would win in Louisville and put a future bet on him right away. I only wish I'd gotten a triple crown feeling and done the same, but I didn't even bet the race yesterday, I just wanted to enjoy it.

Finally, I can't imagine there are too many places in the world after yesterday where someone would spend all evening slagging this horse as being akin to a Mountaineer claimer, but this place sadly appears to be the one.