PDA

View Full Version : Track playing fair so far


Kash$
06-06-2015, 04:08 PM
No bias

BlueChip@DRF
06-06-2015, 05:45 PM
No bias

That is good to hear.

upthecreek
06-07-2015, 06:28 AM
Right before the Met Mile I had to laugh. NBC interviews trainer Eurton who had Kobes Back(closer) he was worried about what he perceived to be a rail/speed bias ,they go to Eddie O for his thoughts,he says I don't think you want to be down on the rail today,then before they go into the gate Jerry Bailey says , the tracks playing fair,they are winning from everywhere!! How can a trainer , handicapper,an ex jockey see it 3 different ways? Is bias in the eye of the beholder?

pandy
06-07-2015, 07:58 AM
http://www.handicappingwinners.com/track_bias.htm

The track seemed kinder to speed than it's been the past few weeks, but that makes sense because it rained in the morning and of course they water the track heavily on big days, but I called yesterday as a No Bias day. When the weather is dry, as it was before this week, Big Sandy is usually kind to closers.

Appy
06-07-2015, 11:59 AM
Except for the TC race the track played just the way I like it...biased against tote board favorites.

classhandicapper
06-07-2015, 12:21 PM
Right before the Met Mile I had to laugh. NBC interviews trainer Eurton who had Kobes Back(closer) he was worried about what he perceived to be a rail/speed bias ,they go to Eddie O for his thoughts,he says I don't think you want to be down on the rail today,then before they go into the gate Jerry Bailey says , the tracks playing fair,they are winning from everywhere!! How can a trainer , handicapper,an ex jockey see it 3 different ways? Is bias in the eye of the beholder?

Perceptions about bias are partly related to perceptions about the horses going into the race. If I hate the rail horse and someone else loves him, when he backs up and finishes off the board at 2-1 it means nothing to me, but it might make the other guy suspicious of the rail.

Sometimes multiple horses with the same trip might just jump up or disappoint on the same day without it having anything to do with the track. That causes people to see biases that don't exist.

Finally, IMHO, many biases only impact horses a few lengths and not all horses are impacted equally even if they spend the same amount of time on the rail etc.... So some horses will run well against a bias and others that have it in their advantage might lose. People have the idea that a bias means every horse with it has to win and every horse against it has to finish up the track. That's not the way it works.

There is no neat package like speed figures, pace figures, ground loss etc... That's what makes bias such fertile ground. If you can find some insights that help you determine the days that were actually biased and which horses were impacted and how much, you have something.

cj
06-07-2015, 12:40 PM
http://www.handicappingwinners.com/track_bias.htm

The track seemed kinder to speed than it's been the past few weeks, but that makes sense because it rained in the morning and of course they water the track heavily on big days, but I called yesterday as a No Bias day. When the weather is dry, as it was before this week, Big Sandy is usually kind to closers.

TimeformUS will have it shaded in pink, favored speed but not a strong (red) bias.

reckless
06-07-2015, 02:08 PM
I always felt that track biases as we define it is not really a bias per se but more the regular makeup of each track itself. Monmouth and Santa Anita tend to play kind to early speed types and Belmont, Arlington and Churchill play fairer to off the pace runners.

Weather is the biggest culprit in creating biases, imo, especially after a few days of rain when today's track is sunny and bright and listed fast but closers rule the roost because of the drying out nature of the track.

CosmicWon
06-08-2015, 11:20 PM
Glad I wasn't the only one who thought the rail was pretty good, AT LEAST EARLY IN THE CARD. We were there and the weather at 7:30pm Fri was very different from 7:30am Sat when it had rained a good bit (like 4am) and cont to be drizzly, VERY breezy, and cool. From about noon until 2p it was overcast and breezy but no rain, then finally the sun came out and wind lessened about 3:30p.

I think bias is mostly lazy handicapping and it happens here in KY MUCH less than it does elsewhere since our track supers are terrific but mostly because our weather is so temperate on the whole and not near any water like Long Island tracks or GP or even SA.

I usually assume Bel is fair but it was clear during that second race on Sat when Wisecracker made the big move (because he was the best horse) yet flattened out. Untapable makes the same move in R5 behind loose Wedding Toast but can't make up ground either.

See also VE Day getting out nosed by a Coach Inge to his inside wasn't so much VE hanging as it was be made that same wide move on the turn and got stuck. I played him Sat and he's a bet back for sure next time.

March winning up the rail when he was the slowest thing in there was super annoying since I had bet Cinco Charlie. I think By The Light almost sneaking away is another example of the trend but by Acorn the inside advantage had weakened as the sun got stronger. Thought Curlina was TERRIFIC to run down a G1W in space who was on the small conveyor belt. Curlina is quite nice and will win more big races.

Don't really believe bias occurrs as much as some folks, but I could see with my own eyes that something strange was going on. I like science so won't accept just any bias "examples" as fact and feel instead it's mostly coincidences, but all the examples I just mentioned bolster my live rail hypothesis.

Lastly, just so CJ knows, they didn't water the track AT ALL between when it was sealed at like 9am until AFTER THE MANHATTAN so there was a good 8hrs of no addl moisture yet Belmont Stakes got both the water trucks And harrow pre-race fwiw. Maybe that contributed to the tight time...

pandy
06-09-2015, 06:35 AM
Yes, with so much time between the 10th and the Belmont, they have the time to water the track and I do believe that makes it faster and probably helps speed. Overall this meet the track has been favoring horses with some class that can finish well, which is ideal, no cheap speed.