Belmont odds based on Gold Cup probables

[cnollfan]

1. Mubtaahij 7-1
2. Tale of Verve 18-1
3. Madefromlucky 10-1
4. Frammento 21-1
5. American Pharoah 6/5
6. Frosted 7/2
7. Keen Ice 14-1
8. Materiality 4-1

[RXB]

I don't think those are calculated correctly. The Gold Cup winner paid $7 and if the $1 double to AP is paying $7, then he's taking about half of the double money. And if he takes half of the win pool money, he'll be 3/5.

[Valuist]

Hard to believe Frosted could be 7-2.

[Some_One]

This is what I get for a line to 120% with my calcs in excel

:1: 8.8
:2: 22.9
:3: 12.8
:4: 28.6
:5: 0.9
:6: 4.2
:7: 18.9
:8: 4.8

[RXB]

These should be a little more accurate if the win pool wagering follows the GC-Belmont double will-pays.

American Pharoah 0.7 (3/5)
Frosted 4.4
Materiality 5.1
Mubtaahij 10
Madefromlucky 14
Tale Of Verve 21
Keen Ice 25
Frammento 32

[cnollfan]

I don't think those are calculated correctly. The Gold Cup winner paid $7 and if the $1 double to AP is paying $7, then he's taking about half of the double money. And if he takes half of the win pool money, he'll be 3/5.

Innovation Economy was bet heavier than 5/2 in the doubles. Converting the will-pays to percentages added up to 139%.

I think AP will be 3/5 too, but the doubles were surprisingly spread out.

[RXB]

Innovation Economy was bet heavier than 5/2 in the doubles. Converting the will-pays to percentages added up to 139%.

I think AP will be 3/5 too, but the doubles were surprisingly spread out.

I saw the double payouts. That's what I used to calculate the % for each horse and then convert those into odds.

The projected win payouts, not the win odds, should track the double will-pays. In other words, if a horse's double will-pay is 10 times as much as another's, it should be his projected win payout that is also 10 times higher, rather than his win odds as seemed to be the case in the initial post.

[RXB]

These should be a little more accurate if the win pool wagering follows the GC-Belmont double will-pays.

American Pharoah 0.7 (3/5)
Frosted 4.4
Materiality 5.1
Mubtaahij 10
Madefromlucky 14
Tale Of Verve 21
Keen Ice 25
Frammento 32

LOL, went to the trouble of calculating them but mixed up Tale Of Verve and Keen Ice when I posted. It should read Keen Ice 21/1, Tale Of Verve 25/1 instead of the other way around. Time for sleep.

[cnollfan]

I saw the double payouts. That's what I used to calculate the % for each horse and then convert those into odds.

The projected win payouts, not the win odds, should track the double will-pays. In other words, if a horse's double will-pay is 10 times as much as another's, it should be his projected win payout that is also 10 times higher, rather than his win odds as seemed to be the case in the initial post.

Maybe I've been doing it wrong. I figured 50% for AP, 7/7; 24% for Frosted, 22/7; 22% for Materiality, 25/7; 14% for Mubtaahij, 43/7; etc. When I added all those percents up they came to 139%+. I took a 16% track take from 139 which brought it down to 117, and then used the same percents as before but based on 117. So AP had 50 bucks bet on him out of 117 total = 6/5, Frosted 24 out of 117 = 3-1, and so forth.

[Capper Al]

AP is my top pick also, but not at 3/5 that the morning line has him. With the competition in the race, I have him at 4/1 which means that I won't have a play.

[RXB]

Maybe I've been doing it wrong. I figured 50% for AP, 7/7; 24% for Frosted, 22/7; 22% for Materiality, 25/7; 14% for Mubtaahij, 43/7; etc. When I added all those percents up they came to 139%+. I took a 16% track take from 139 which brought it down to 117, and then used the same percents as before but based on 117. So AP had 50 bucks bet on him out of 117 total = 6/5, Frosted 24 out of 117 = 3-1, and so forth.

Divide the $2 win payout from the first leg by the $2 double will-pay for each horse. E.g. Frosted = 7/44. That will give you their approximate portion of the double will-pay wagering, allowing for a bit of rounding error (especially for the smaller payouts if we're using will-pays rounded to the dollar). When you've done all of them they should add up close to 1.00. If it's a little more or a little less, just divide them all by that total to normalize.

To convert to projected win odds, take the win pool portion after takeout (for NYRA it is .84), divide by the horse's portion of the double wagering, and then subtract 1.

[RXB]

Forgot to mention one detail: the double takeout is usually higher than the win takeout so the initial pool portion calculations for all horses will add up to a little higher than 1.00; and the greater the takeout in the double pool compared to the win pool, the more above 1.00 it will be. But as I noted earlier, just divide each horse's initial calculation by that sum and you'll get things normalized.