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Kash$
06-05-2015, 07:23 AM
Jerry Bailey on Mike and Mike this morning said AP is peaking..yikes!

Grits
06-05-2015, 07:35 AM
He was standing a few feet from me yesterday in the paddock while they were schooling. I know nothing. But I think differently.

stuball
06-05-2015, 07:42 AM
He was standing a few feet from me yesterday in the paddock while they were schooling. I know nothing. But I think differently.

How do you think differently? Is he declining? Did you see a problem that
I need to know about........?
:ThmbUp:
Thank You for the info..any photos or videos?

Have a great weekend.

Stuball

Grits
06-05-2015, 08:31 AM
With my camera/300 mm lens attached, set on high speed, I've taken a lot of photos the last couple of mornings. Hundreds of frames. Yesterday around 11:30 am, the horses schooled in the paddock as well. I've not uploaded these to my laptop, or otherwise, I'd try and share some of them.

Looking over my photos of American Pharoah.... Two observations. Yes, when he stepped on the track Wednesday morning for the first time... he was moving great. Advance to Thursday morning, again, on the track, moving well, but he doesn't seem as eager. His head carriage is lower. He's held, yes, but he's not showing the same challenge as the day before over this deeper surface.

In the paddock, honestly speaking. American Pharoah looked tired in his walking, in his eyes, in his head carriage. Granted this was three hours after his bath, after his one turn around the track--whether this lies in his being tired of media crowds gawking at him, or if he's a genuinely tired horse--who knows.

When he hits the quarter pole tomorrow he may not be on the lead screaming, "one to go; I'm there." Of course, if I'm dead wrong, I'll be more than fine. I don't know what the pros know and all of this is, indeed, exciting. But, as of this morning, I believe, based on his body language, he's vulnerable in this race.

The one that may upset his bid, that I've got many photos of.. that I was stunned by? FROSTED. This animal looks incredibly powerful, while KMc is soft spoken about him, he's cautious of AP. Mubtaahij looks really good. Still no lasix against these is a concern. If he won, I'd smile as it would fly in the face of every trainer in the U.S. And rightfully so. Keen Ice looks OK. As for Pletcher's entries, I'm sorry, I've not seen a one--training track, or out just after sun up. (One of his fillies ran a few extra laps yesterday...taking a good length of time to catch.)

During the interview, Baffert was characteristically Baffert yesterday. Trainerspeak and charming. The Zayats, father and son, were comparatively subdued, far different from their social media musings. For this we can be grateful as in "you're not the show, so please, I'm sorry, sit down."

On a final note. TONALIST is jaw dropping. He's the most fit animal on this 400+ acres. He can't keep four feet on the ground. Its pure joy to see a racehorse this grand.

Good luck, gentlemen. I hope each of you enjoy Belmont's Festival of Racing.

MutuelClerk
06-05-2015, 09:20 AM
Interesting observations Grits. Appreciate your insights.

BlueChip@DRF
06-05-2015, 09:27 AM
Awesome, Grits! I may single Tonalist in a Pick-4 I am trying to construct. Did you get a peak at ToV?

And grits are always awesome with butter and fried eggs.

horses4courses
06-05-2015, 09:29 AM
Grits noticed a similar look about Chrome last year.
I didn't see him until the post parade on tv, but I saw the same thing.
Dull appearance compared to previous races.

Remember - this will be his fourth race in eight weeks.
Even after a relatively easy 2014, that could very well take it's toll.

Let's hope not, though.

DeltaLover
06-05-2015, 09:44 AM
Jerry Bailey on Mike and Mike this morning said AP is peaking..yikes!


I did not listen to Bailey, but I hold exactly the same opinion. I think that AP is going to be even more impressive in his Belmont tomorrow

Grits
06-05-2015, 10:06 AM
Awesome, Grits! I may single Tonalist in a Pick-4 I am trying to construct. Did you get a peak at ToV?

And grits are always awesome with butter and fried eggs.

I did. Have several photos of TOV. He looks good, better than Keen Ice, but neither can hold up to Frosted...not physically. TOVs finest asset will be, to me, Stevens on him, he'll know when its time to move. JMO


I get the distinct feeling. Everywhere here that it's "ALL AP, ALL THE TIME"! The media doesn't care about any of the horses he is running against...it's as though this is going to be a walkover. I don't think so at all. It's a good thing the horses don't know they're being dismissed. ;) It's a bit sad actually when they, too, give their best.

Redboard
06-05-2015, 10:08 AM
Jerry Bailey on Mike and Mike this morning said AP is peaking..yikes!

I saw this and don't agree with Jerry's opinion that he has to go to the lead. AP is not a speed horse, he can rate. If some one wants to blaze out to a 21 quarter, let him. Why in the world would AP have to chase him.

BlueChip@DRF
06-05-2015, 11:43 AM
I did. Have several photos of TOV. He looks good, better than Keen Ice, but neither can hold up to Frosted...not physically. TOVs finest asset will be, to me, Stevens on him, he'll know when its time to move. JMO


I get the distinct feeling. Everywhere here that it's "ALL AP, ALL THE TIME"! The media doesn't care about any of the horses he is running against...it's as though this is going to be a walkover. I don't think so at all. It's a good thing the horses don't know they're being dismissed. ;) It's a bit sad actually when they, too, give their best.


Kind of like the 2003 Funny Cide Belmont. I was there and it was Funnycidal all over the place. But I stuck with my man Bobby. Lost the Derby but got the Belmont.

Donttellmeshowme
06-05-2015, 11:48 AM
He might be peaking but I don't think he can get the mile and a half.

DJofSD
06-05-2015, 11:51 AM
Grits, in your opinion, which horse seems to be carrying the best flesh?

acorn54
06-05-2015, 12:13 PM
i think if this was a run-of the mill race without all the history and hype, serious bettors wouldn't touch it as a meat and potatoes betting opportunity. it has the elements of very poor value such as being a small enough field to be less than generous on exotic payouts.
the horse to beat is a reasonably solid favorite, and will be way overbet.
i hope all the drama and conclusion to the race dawns a new era on the sport of kings.

lamboguy
06-05-2015, 12:23 PM
i think if this was a run-of the mill race without all the history and hype, serious bettors wouldn't touch it as a meat and potatoes betting opportunity. it has the elements of very poor value such as being a small enough field to be less than generous on exotic payouts.
the horse to beat is a reasonably solid favorite, and will be way overbet.
i hope all the drama and conclusion to the race dawns a new era on the sport of kings.
people that never bet horses are betting on AP. but the regular horse players that are looking for value are sinking their teeth into other horses .

i am betting on AP because my line on him is a lot less than what i think he will go off at.

Stillriledup
06-05-2015, 12:44 PM
Grits noticed a similar look about Chrome last year.
I didn't see him until the post parade on tv, but I saw the same thing.
Dull appearance compared to previous races.

Remember - this will be his fourth race in eight weeks.
Even after a relatively easy 2014, that could very well take it's toll.

Let's hope not, though.

Espinoza said CC was tired and whatnut BEFORE the Belmont last year, I don't remember hearing these quotes before the race.

Stillriledup
06-05-2015, 12:46 PM
With my camera/300 mm lens attached, set on high speed, I've taken a lot of photos the last couple of mornings. Hundreds of frames. Yesterday around 11:30 am, the horses schooled in the paddock as well. I've not uploaded these to my laptop, or otherwise, I'd try and share some of them.

Looking over my photos of American Pharoah.... Two observations. Yes, when he stepped on the track Wednesday morning for the first time... he was moving great. Advance to Thursday morning, again, on the track, moving well, but he doesn't seem as eager. His head carriage is lower. He's held, yes, but he's not showing the same challenge as the day before over this deeper surface.

In the paddock, honestly speaking. American Pharoah looked tired in his walking, in his eyes, in his head carriage. Granted this was three hours after his bath, after his one turn around the track--whether this lies in his being tired of media crowds gawking at him, or if he's a genuinely tired horse--who knows.

When he hits the quarter pole tomorrow he may not be on the lead screaming, "one to go; I'm there." Of course, if I'm dead wrong, I'll be more than fine. I don't know what the pros know and all of this is, indeed, exciting. But, as of this morning, I believe, based on his body language, he's vulnerable in this race.

The one that may upset his bid, that I've got many photos of.. that I was stunned by? FROSTED. This animal looks incredibly powerful, while KMc is soft spoken about him, he's cautious of AP. Mubtaahij looks really good. Still no lasix against these is a concern. If he won, I'd smile as it would fly in the face of every trainer in the U.S. And rightfully so. Keen Ice looks OK. As for Pletcher's entries, I'm sorry, I've not seen a one--training track, or out just after sun up. (One of his fillies ran a few extra laps yesterday...taking a good length of time to catch.)

During the interview, Baffert was characteristically Baffert yesterday. Trainerspeak and charming. The Zayats, father and son, were comparatively subdued, far different from their social media musings. For this we can be grateful as in "you're not the show, so please, I'm sorry, sit down."

On a final note. TONALIST is jaw dropping. He's the most fit animal on this 400+ acres. He can't keep four feet on the ground. Its pure joy to see a racehorse this grand.

Good luck, gentlemen. I hope each of you enjoy Belmont's Festival of Racing.

GREAT post. This is not something you'll ever get from the media, they're too busy sucking Bafferts kneecaps to ever put themselves out there like this even if they were talented enough to observe these little things in the first place. Thanks.

Some_One
06-05-2015, 01:34 PM
Derek Simon had an interesting piece yesterday suggesting that AP already peaked because of his Feb birthdate and the rest of the field should be catching up to him in the Belmont

http://www.twinspires.com/blog/2015/6/4/american-pharoah%E2%80%99s-date-destiny-doomed-date

RacingFan1992
06-05-2015, 02:25 PM
Derek Simon had an interesting piece yesterday suggesting that AP already peaked because of his Feb birthdate and the rest of the field should be catching up to him in the Belmont

http://www.twinspires.com/blog/2015/6/4/american-pharoah%E2%80%99s-date-destiny-doomed-date

Affirmed (2-21-75)
Seattle Slew (2-15-74)
Secretariat (3-30-1970)
Citation (4-11-45)
Assault (3-26-1943)
Count Fleet (3-24-1940)
Whirlaway (4-2-1938)
War Admiral (5-2-1934)
Omaha (3-24-1932)
Gallant Fox (3-27-27)
Sir Barton (4-26-16)

Birthdays mean crap to me.

BlueChip@DRF
06-05-2015, 02:27 PM
Affirmed (2-21-75)
Seattle Slew (2-15-74)
Secretariat (3-30-1970)
Citation (4-11-45)
Assault (3-26-1943)
Count Fleet (3-24-1940)
Whirlaway (4-2-1938)
War Admiral (5-2-1934)
Omaha (3-24-1932)
Gallant Fox (3-27-27)
Sir Barton (4-26-16)

Birthdays mean crap to me.

Happy belated! :)

RacingFan1992
06-05-2015, 02:40 PM
The crazy thing is War Admiral was the youngest Triple Crown winner. He turned 3 on May 2 which was 6 days before the Kentucky Derby. He drew the number 1 spot on the rail in a 20 horse field in the Kentucky Derby plus he ran through the pain after he gouged himself in the back of his front legs. That is the kind of crap Triple Crown winners overcome and that make them great. They get all this crap thrown at them and they push through and get it done.

Secondbest
06-05-2015, 02:53 PM
Bailey just said AP is 3 lengths better than anybody else. On francessas show.Biggest threat Frosted.Only if AP not on his game.

LottaKash
06-05-2015, 03:02 PM
Looking over my photos of American Pharoah.... Two observations. Yes, when he stepped on the track Wednesday morning for the first time... he was moving great. Advance to Thursday morning, again, on the track, moving well, but he doesn't seem as eager. His head carriage is lower. He's held, yes, but he's not showing the same challenge as the day before over this deeper surface.

In the paddock, honestly speaking. American Pharoah looked tired in his walking, in his eyes, in his head carriage. Granted this was three hours after his bath, after his one turn around the track--whether this lies in his being tired of media crowds gawking at him, or if he's a genuinely tired horse--who knows.



Grits, if this came from a lesser knowledgeable person, I would take it with a grain...But coming from you, as I respect your opinions much, that does give one to worry a bit about AP's physical status as of lately...

Looks are as looks do...And, what you stated about him is definitely a negative for me...Doesn't bode well for the TC now, based on that info...

Thx for sharing... :ThmbUp:

Clocker
06-05-2015, 04:06 PM
Here is an article from "Wired" discussing the science aspects. It would seem to be in line with what Grits reports, but the science is beyond me.

The author also points out that there have been no TC winners since Lasix came into common use. Coincidence?

http://www.wired.com/2015/06/science-says-american-pharoah-wont-win-triple-crown/

pandy
06-05-2015, 04:13 PM
Espinoza said CC was tired and whatnut BEFORE the Belmont last year, I don't remember hearing these quotes before the race.


I really don't think he said that Chrome was tired BEFORE the race. After he lost he said that. Before the race Baffert and the exercise rider said that Chrome was better than ever. I posted two articles about this subject earlier in the week. After the races, trainers, jockeys, owners, often say things like that.

pandy
06-05-2015, 04:20 PM
I did. Have several photos of TOV. He looks good, better than Keen Ice, but neither can hold up to Frosted...not physically. TOVs finest asset will be, to me, Stevens on him, he'll know when its time to move. JMO


I get the distinct feeling. Everywhere here that it's "ALL AP, ALL THE TIME"! The media doesn't care about any of the horses he is running against...it's as though this is going to be a walkover. I don't think so at all. It's a good thing the horses don't know they're being dismissed. ;) It's a bit sad actually when they, too, give their best.


Good point. The coverage gets skewed because they only look at the favorite.

Tor Ekman
06-05-2015, 04:24 PM
Bailey just said AP is 3 lengths better than anybody else. On francessas show.Biggest threat Frosted.Only if AP not on his game.Wait, Fatcessa let Bailey get a word in edgewise during his pontifications?

Stillriledup
06-05-2015, 04:44 PM
I really don't think he said that Chrome was tired BEFORE the race. After he lost he said that. Before the race Baffert and the exercise rider said that Chrome was better than ever. I posted two articles about this subject earlier in the week. After the races, trainers, jockeys, owners, often say things like that.
Maybe theres a language barrier but the context of what he said indicated to me that this was info that was known beforehand, maybe victor meant he only knew that the horse was tired after the fact but if thats really true and he was not 100 pct wouldnt there have been some sign before the race?

letswastemoney
06-05-2015, 04:51 PM
It still hasn't dawned on me that American Pharoah is the best horse at 12 furlongs.

For no other race would I consider speed figures and form at 2 furlongs less than today's race a lock to translate into the new distance. Two furlongs or more is a significant change!

pandy
06-05-2015, 05:00 PM
Kind of like the 2003 Funny Cide Belmont. I was there and it was Funnycidal all over the place. But I stuck with my man Bobby. Lost the Derby but got the Belmont.

And Funnycide was one of the weakest favorites in the history of the Belmont.

pandy
06-05-2015, 05:04 PM
Maybe theres a language barrier but the context of what he said indicated to me that this was info that was known beforehand, maybe victor meant he only knew that the horse was tired after the fact but if thats really true and he was not 100 pct wouldnt there have been some sign before the race?


I'm just saying, the fact is, Victor never said a single negative thing about Chrome until after he lost, then he said he thought the horse felt tired before the race. Which, by the way, was absurd. Chrome's foot was bleeding after he got stepped on at the start and he ran a very game race. He didn't looked like a tired horse at all. I didn't like him at all, but the reality is, if he hadn't been injured he may have won.

Stillriledup
06-05-2015, 05:29 PM
I'm just saying, the fact is, Victor never said a single negative thing about Chrome until after he lost, then he said he thought the horse felt tired before the race. Which, by the way, was absurd. Chrome's foot was bleeding after he got stepped on at the start and he ran a very game race. He didn't looked like a tired horse at all. I didn't like him at all, but the reality is, if he hadn't been injured he may have won.

I guess for a jockey, it looks better for you and your career if it's the fault of the situation and not rider error that got him beat.

Grits
06-05-2015, 08:54 PM
Grits, in your opinion, which horse seems to be carrying the best flesh?

Frosted, Dj.

Skanoochies
06-05-2015, 11:17 PM
Hmmm! Interesting, thanks Grits. :ThmbUp:

Valuist
06-05-2015, 11:31 PM
With my camera/300 mm lens attached, set on high speed, I've taken a lot of photos the last couple of mornings. Hundreds of frames. Yesterday around 11:30 am, the horses schooled in the paddock as well. I've not uploaded these to my laptop, or otherwise, I'd try and share some of them.

Looking over my photos of American Pharoah.... Two observations. Yes, when he stepped on the track Wednesday morning for the first time... he was moving great. Advance to Thursday morning, again, on the track, moving well, but he doesn't seem as eager. His head carriage is lower. He's held, yes, but he's not showing the same challenge as the day before over this deeper surface.

In the paddock, honestly speaking. American Pharoah looked tired in his walking, in his eyes, in his head carriage. Granted this was three hours after his bath, after his one turn around the track--whether this lies in his being tired of media crowds gawking at him, or if he's a genuinely tired horse--who knows.

When he hits the quarter pole tomorrow he may not be on the lead screaming, "one to go; I'm there." Of course, if I'm dead wrong, I'll be more than fine. I don't know what the pros know and all of this is, indeed, exciting. But, as of this morning, I believe, based on his body language, he's vulnerable in this race.

The one that may upset his bid, that I've got many photos of.. that I was stunned by? FROSTED. This animal looks incredibly powerful, while KMc is soft spoken about him, he's cautious of AP. Mubtaahij looks really good. Still no lasix against these is a concern. If he won, I'd smile as it would fly in the face of every trainer in the U.S. And rightfully so. Keen Ice looks OK. As for Pletcher's entries, I'm sorry, I've not seen a one--training track, or out just after sun up. (One of his fillies ran a few extra laps yesterday...taking a good length of time to catch.)

During the interview, Baffert was characteristically Baffert yesterday. Trainerspeak and charming. The Zayats, father and son, were comparatively subdued, far different from their social media musings. For this we can be grateful as in "you're not the show, so please, I'm sorry, sit down."

On a final note. TONALIST is jaw dropping. He's the most fit animal on this 400+ acres. He can't keep four feet on the ground. Its pure joy to see a racehorse this grand.

Good luck, gentlemen. I hope each of you enjoy Belmont's Festival of Racing.

Good stuff, Grits. This kind of analysis will not be heard on the likes of ESPN or mainstream sports talk shows. And I mean that as a compliment. :ThmbUp:

Cratos
06-06-2015, 12:44 AM
With my camera/300 mm lens attached, set on high speed, I've taken a lot of photos the last couple of mornings. Hundreds of frames. Yesterday around 11:30 am, the horses schooled in the paddock as well. I've not uploaded these to my laptop, or otherwise, I'd try and share some of them.

Looking over my photos of American Pharoah.... Two observations. Yes, when he stepped on the track Wednesday morning for the first time... he was moving great. Advance to Thursday morning, again, on the track, moving well, but he doesn't seem as eager. His head carriage is lower. He's held, yes, but he's not showing the same challenge as the day before over this deeper surface.

In the paddock, honestly speaking. American Pharoah looked tired in his walking, in his eyes, in his head carriage. Granted this was three hours after his bath, after his one turn around the track--whether this lies in his being tired of media crowds gawking at him, or if he's a genuinely tired horse--who knows.

When he hits the quarter pole tomorrow he may not be on the lead screaming, "one to go; I'm there." Of course, if I'm dead wrong, I'll be more than fine. I don't know what the pros know and all of this is, indeed, exciting. But, as of this morning, I believe, based on his body language, he's vulnerable in this race.

The one that may upset his bid, that I've got many photos of.. that I was stunned by? FROSTED. This animal looks incredibly powerful, while KMc is soft spoken about him, he's cautious of AP. Mubtaahij looks really good. Still no lasix against these is a concern. If he won, I'd smile as it would fly in the face of every trainer in the U.S. And rightfully so. Keen Ice looks OK. As for Pletcher's entries, I'm sorry, I've not seen a one--training track, or out just after sun up. (One of his fillies ran a few extra laps yesterday...taking a good length of time to catch.)

During the interview, Baffert was characteristically Baffert yesterday. Trainerspeak and charming. The Zayats, father and son, were comparatively subdued, far different from their social media musings. For this we can be grateful as in "you're not the show, so please, I'm sorry, sit down."

On a final note. TONALIST is jaw dropping. He's the most fit animal on this 400+ acres. He can't keep four feet on the ground. Its pure joy to see a racehorse this grand.

Good luck, gentlemen. I hope each of you enjoy Belmont's Festival of Racing.
Grits, I agree with you about Tonalist of whom is one of my favorite horses in training and "he" helped pay for a significant portion of my new 'Vette cost last year with his Belmont and JCGC wins.

However I am 'torn" between Tonalist and Honor Code in the Met Mile; and I don't bet exotics. I will probably skip this race as a bettor.

PaceMasterT
06-06-2015, 12:54 AM
I'm just saying, the fact is, Victor never said a single negative thing about Chrome until after he lost, then he said he thought the horse felt tired before the race. Which, by the way, was absurd. Chrome's foot was bleeding after he got stepped on at the start and he ran a very game race. He didn't looked like a tired horse at all. I didn't like him at all, but the reality is, if he hadn't been injured he may have won.


I don't think CC was 100% going into the Belmont. Why else was the owner whining and complaining about it not being fair that fresh horses were allowed to run in the Belmont? Quite a different stance than his boisterousness before the previous two races.

PaceMasterT
06-06-2015, 12:58 AM
Grits, if this came from a lesser knowledgeable person, I would take it with a grain...But coming from you, as I respect your opinions much, that does give one to worry a bit about AP's physical status as of lately...

Looks are as looks do...And, what you stated about him is definitely a negative for me...Doesn't bode well for the TC now, based on that info...

Thx for sharing... :ThmbUp:


There may be a little conformation bias in the analysis as I'm sure that Frosted is Grits pick to win the Belmont.

LottaKash
06-06-2015, 01:09 AM
There may be a little conformation bias in the analysis as I'm sure that Frosted is Grits pick to win the Belmont.


Pace, your point is well taken, but from what I know of Grits, she is a standup kind of a gal....And I'll just bet that she was just giving an honest opinion and assessment based on what she observed....I couldn't think of a reason why she would give out a false impression given her passion and background for horse racing.....I doubt even a Frosted bias would sway her much in that regard....I sincerely don't believe that she would want to be the one to give a false report on anything as important as this race...

Me personally, I trust her perceptions in this case...I hope she is wrong about AP tho....Perhaps that is how he is when off duty in the barn,,I dunno..

PaceMasterT
06-06-2015, 01:21 AM
Pace, your point is well taken, but from what I know of Grits, she is a standup kind of a gal....And I'll just bet that she was just giving an honest opinion and assessment based on what she observed....I couldn't think of a reason why she would give out a false impression given her passion and background for horse racing.....I doubt even a Frosted bias would sway her much in that regard....I sincerely don't believe that she would want to be the one to give a false report on anything as important as this race...

Me personally, I trust her perceptions in this case...I hope she is wrong about AP tho....Perhaps that is how he is when off duty in the barn,,I dunno..


We are all human.

Grits
06-06-2015, 06:42 AM
There may be a little conformation bias in the analysis as I'm sure that Frosted is Grits pick to win the Belmont.

Good morning, wishing you a fine Belmont Day.

Please, do not speak for me. What I stated, here, has had more to do with American Pharoah, and the "test of the champion". It's quite difficult today!

BlueChip@DRF
06-06-2015, 07:45 AM
We are all human.


Except for the horses we bet on.

stuball
06-06-2015, 07:48 AM
Thanks Grits I want you to know I appreciate your observations and your insight in your comments...You are special...I don't have much to bet any more
as my union pension is in danger of being shredded by political and union crooks. I intend to bet my small bets on Tonalist and Frosted. I hope you have a great day today.....Good Luck (never hurts to have sum) LOL

Stuball :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

judd
06-06-2015, 08:13 AM
Bailey flopped when he tried the selection business, with dvds etc
he doesn't know squat

Relwob Owner
06-06-2015, 08:39 AM
Bailey flopped when he tried the selection business, with dvds etc
he doesn't know squat

That may be true but on the Derby and Preakness telecasts this year, he has been unwavering and on target with his AP analysis.

pandy
06-06-2015, 08:47 AM
Jerry pick Chrome last year. I've noticed that for some reason almost all of the TV analysts go with the horse attempting to win the TC. Last year almost everyone on TVG and HRTV loved Chrome and this year they all think that AP will win it. In the Daily Racing Form, most of the handicappers went against American Pharoah. Of course the racing channels are all on the west coast, and these are west coast horses.

jahura2
06-06-2015, 09:03 AM
With my camera/300 mm lens attached, set on high speed, I've taken a lot of photos the last couple of mornings. Hundreds of frames. Yesterday around 11:30 am, the horses schooled in the paddock as well. I've not uploaded these to my laptop, or otherwise, I'd try and share some of them.

Looking over my photos of American Pharoah.... Two observations. Yes, when he stepped on the track Wednesday morning for the first time... he was moving great. Advance to Thursday morning, again, on the track, moving well, but he doesn't seem as eager. His head carriage is lower. He's held, yes, but he's not showing the same challenge as the day before over this deeper surface.

In the paddock, honestly speaking. American Pharoah looked tired in his walking, in his eyes, in his head carriage. Granted this was three hours after his bath, after his one turn around the track--whether this lies in his being tired of media crowds gawking at him, or if he's a genuinely tired horse--who knows.

When he hits the quarter pole tomorrow he may not be on the lead screaming, "one to go; I'm there." Of course, if I'm dead wrong, I'll be more than fine. I don't know what the pros know and all of this is, indeed, exciting. But, as of this morning, I believe, based on his body language, he's vulnerable in this race.

The one that may upset his bid, that I've got many photos of.. that I was stunned by? FROSTED. This animal looks incredibly powerful, while KMc is soft spoken about him, he's cautious of AP. Mubtaahij looks really good. Still no lasix against these is a concern. If he won, I'd smile as it would fly in the face of every trainer in the U.S. And rightfully so. Keen Ice looks OK. As for Pletcher's entries, I'm sorry, I've not seen a one--training track, or out just after sun up. (One of his fillies ran a few extra laps yesterday...taking a good length of time to catch.)

During the interview, Baffert was characteristically Baffert yesterday. Trainerspeak and charming. The Zayats, father and son, were comparatively subdued, far different from their social media musings. For this we can be grateful as in "you're not the show, so please, I'm sorry, sit down."

On a final note. TONALIST is jaw dropping. He's the most fit animal on this 400+ acres. He can't keep four feet on the ground. Its pure joy to see a racehorse this grand.

Good luck, gentlemen. I hope each of you enjoy Belmont's Festival of Racing.


Grits, thanks for the insight. Have always been impressed with our outlook. Hope you also have a great day. Winning or losing , I know I will!(prefererably winning)

pandy
06-06-2015, 09:40 AM
Jerry pick Chrome last year. I've noticed that for some reason almost all of the TV analysts go with the horse attempting to win the TC. Last year almost everyone on TVG and HRTV loved Chrome and this year they all think that AP will win it. In the Daily Racing Form, most of the handicappers went against American Pharoah. Of course the racing channels are all on the west coast, and these are west coast horses.

Watching TVG's Belmont Stakes show, not all of the guys are calling AP a lock, so I was wrong.

Interesting stat, of last 36 favorites in Belmont, 6 won.

Relwob Owner
06-06-2015, 09:51 AM
Frosted, Dj.

Have a great day Grits :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

Kash$
06-06-2015, 06:58 PM
Guess Bailey was right

SandyW
06-06-2015, 08:39 PM
It sure looks like Frosted got frosted today by AP. They could of gone around again and I don't think that AP would be able to blow out a match.

DeltaLover
06-06-2015, 09:35 PM
It sure looks like Frosted got frosted today by AP. They could of gone around again and I don't think that AP would be able to blow out a match.

I think they could have continued to Montauk without anyone getting close.

DJofSD
06-06-2015, 09:38 PM
AP is suppose to be at DMR this summer.

horses4courses
06-06-2015, 09:52 PM
AP is suppose to be at DMR this summer.

Pacific Classic, Awesome Again, BC Classic?

DeltaLover
06-06-2015, 10:01 PM
AP is suppose to be at DMR this summer.

I would love to see him at the SPA but what you are saying is making sense of course

Grits
06-07-2015, 11:02 AM
Gladly dead wrong, gentlemen. No need for lengthy explanations...they make one sound more foolish.

Grace and humility mean something. Without the two, along with respect... I'm nothing.

Have a good Sunday, each of you. I'm heading back to beautiful Belmont Park on this gorgeous day.

With my camera/300 mm lens attached, set on high speed, I've taken a lot of photos the last couple of mornings. Hundreds of frames. Yesterday around 11:30 am, the horses schooled in the paddock as well. I've not uploaded these to my laptop, or otherwise, I'd try and share some of them.

Looking over my photos of American Pharoah.... Two observations. Yes, when he stepped on the track Wednesday morning for the first time... he was moving great. Advance to Thursday morning, again, on the track, moving well, but he doesn't seem as eager. His head carriage is lower. He's held, yes, but he's not showing the same challenge as the day before over this deeper surface.

In the paddock, honestly speaking. American Pharoah looked tired in his walking, in his eyes, in his head carriage. Granted this was three hours after his bath, after his one turn around the track--whether this lies in his being tired of media crowds gawking at him, or if he's a genuinely tired horse--who knows.

When he hits the quarter pole tomorrow he may not be on the lead screaming, "one to go; I'm there." Of course, if I'm dead wrong, I'll be more than fine. I don't know what the pros know and all of this is, indeed, exciting. But, as of this morning, I believe, based on his body language, he's vulnerable in this race.

The one that may upset his bid, that I've got many photos of.. that I was stunned by? FROSTED. This animal looks incredibly powerful, while KMc is soft spoken about him, he's cautious of AP. Mubtaahij looks really good. Still no lasix against these is a concern. If he won, I'd smile as it would fly in the face of every trainer in the U.S. And rightfully so. Keen Ice looks OK. As for Pletcher's entries, I'm sorry, I've not seen a one--training track, or out just after sun up. (One of his fillies ran a few extra laps yesterday...taking a good length of time to catch.)

During the interview, Baffert was characteristically Baffert yesterday. Trainerspeak and charming. The Zayats, father and son, were comparatively subdued, far different from their social media musings. For this we can be grateful as in "you're not the show, so please, I'm sorry, sit down."

On a final note. TONALIST is jaw dropping. He's the most fit animal on this 400+ acres. He can't keep four feet on the ground. Its pure joy to see a racehorse this grand.

Good luck, gentlemen. I hope each of you enjoy Belmont's Festival of Racing.

DJofSD
06-07-2015, 12:09 PM
Derek Simon had an interesting piece yesterday suggesting that AP already peaked because of his Feb birthdate and the rest of the field should be catching up to him in the Belmont

http://www.twinspires.com/blog/2015/6/4/american-pharoah%E2%80%99s-date-destiny-doomed-date
Any one heard from Derek Simon yet?