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View Full Version : BELMONT Crunch Time...Your "final" thoughts and plays for the Last Jewel...


LottaKash
06-05-2015, 01:19 AM
Shttp://i405.photobucket.com/albums/pp137/lottakash/AP%20befor%20BELMONT...EXTWs_zpsudubfl9t.png (http://s405.photobucket.com/user/lottakash/media/AP%20befor%20BELMONT...EXTWs_zpsudubfl9t.png.html)

My take so far, is that nothing that anyone has said so far makes a very compelling case, other than the history of the Belmont, for any horse to beat AP at face PP value...

I am strictly an "Angle" player, and I still like the angle that AP has going for him...I liked him pre Derby, and the Preakness, and nothing that he has shown me so far, suggests that the Angle has met it's end yet......

The Angle is, "The Extended Win" (EXTW)....AP has shown in every single recent race that he hasn't really shown his best stuff yet....In each of the listed races shown, shows that he had captured the lead by the mid-stretch call, and extended that very lead to the wire...They weren't just good wins, they were extended wins....This is one of my pet angles, and the EXTW implies, for me, of better things to come for any horse that has it...I look for it incessantly..

Except for his Derby, where he was a total "mental wreck", where he had to overcome all that wasted pre-race and post parade energy expenditure, to still capture the win, even so, his other races suggest much more to come....I truly believe that is why VE, in the Derby, had to really get into him thru lane, he just needed a wake up call, to get AP to dig in and show his real class...And he still won it despite that pre race meltdown.. Imo a lesser horse would've closed up shop long before the wire after expending so much energy pre-race....He showed me much heart and bravery in that Derby win... And those attributes for me are signs of class and/or of better things to come..

The other races, he just did what he was supposed to do, which was to win, with ease...Not as in a big win, but an "extended win"...

I know others, with good reason, have stated that his end races wern't very fast, but I look at it like this, he just did what he needed to do to win...But, in his listed running lines for all to see, we notice that he rose to each and every occasion by extending his lead thru the lane to the wire, and that is all that he needed to do in each race instance...I don't think that I need any further proof that there is more to this horse and in his tank based on his EXTWs...I don't think that we have seen this horse's best yet...I am banking on it...

Since AP will obviously be a prohibitive favorite in the win slot, I will: Wager a straight one way exacta with "AP on top of "Frosted", and a smaller ex-box with the two (to save the big bet if possible)


:jump:
Good Luck to all in the last Jewel of the TC...

Some_One
06-05-2015, 02:53 AM
Still playing against AP, the more I think about it, the more I'm convinced he's a miler, his game is to blast out and run everyone into submission. In the Derby he did rate, no doubt, but had to work hard in the lane to get past Firing Line and Dortmund and was lucky Mat. and Frosted where shuffled back early (they both got past AP in the gallopout). Now on Sat AP will be asked to rate even more and I don't think there will be any explosion of speed when asked at the top of the stretch like many are expecting.

lamboguy
06-05-2015, 04:06 AM
Still playing against AP, the more I think about it, the more I'm convinced he's a miler, his game is to blast out and run everyone into submission. In the Derby he did rate, no doubt, but had to work hard in the lane to get past Firing Line and Dortmund and was lucky Mat. and Frosted where shuffled back early (they both got past AP in the gallopout). Now on Sat AP will be asked to rate even more and I don't think there will be any explosion of speed when asked at the top of the stretch like many are expecting.i promise you, Baffert isn't putting out a short horse, i don't see to many of his that can't go the distance that he is in, i don't think that out of all the horses he has with a lead in the stretch that more than 3% of them get passed in the lane even after being terrorized early in the race.

so if you want to fight city hall here, the windows will be open early

depalma113
06-05-2015, 08:26 AM
American Pharoah by daylight.

BlueChip@DRF
06-05-2015, 08:32 AM
Stranger things have happened in this particular race - especially when the favorite looks downright unbeatable.

I was there for the wedding, so I might as well attend the funeral. Beefas knows what I'm talking about. :cool:

beefas
06-05-2015, 09:04 AM
Yes sir!,, :cool:

DeltaLover
06-05-2015, 09:08 AM
My main opinions are that AP will win the race, while Materiality will be a clear underlay. I will try AP on top of Madefromlucky and Frosted..

Here you can read more (http://tinyurl.com/of9h9lv)

jettroofer
06-05-2015, 09:26 AM
I don't see any other scenario than AP going out front with a clear lead. I think he holds that lead into the last turn. If Materiality is going to beat him, he will have to be close up and have more legs in the stretch. That's what I am having a hard time predicting. My gut tells me AP will run Materiality into the ground and will have to outlast. frosted and Keen Ice late. If he wins, it will be gate to wire. If Materiality can hang with him, it will be an exciting stretch run with those two and Frosted barreling up on them. I don't give Tale of Verve much shot and Aside from the 'angles', Framento should not be a threat. MFL could be a factor as he looked like he could get get more at the end of the Peter Pan but he singling too have to improve even more to beat these. Moobs is still my wild card. I think he is everyone's wild card. I've bet against AP in every race thus far. I will key him heavily on Saturday with a few backup meltdown bets in case the sky falls. My logical money will be played around AP and Frosted. I think Frosted has a real chance of winning this Belmont. Especially if Materiality tries to run AP out of it.

Redboard
06-05-2015, 10:02 AM
AP is going to hit the board, unless there’s some kind of trouble such as CC experienced last year. Eight out of that 12 that failed, came in 2nd or 3rd and the other four had legitimate excuses.

Dick Jerardi is picking Materiality:

http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/horse_racing/20150605_Materiality_to_spoil_American_Pharoah_s_T riple_Crown_bid.html

Andy Beyer hedging and giving out my exacta box:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/american-pharoah-may-win-the-triple-crown-but-im-betting-against-it/2015/06/04/9f1e3c92-0ab9-11e5-95fd-d580f1c5d44e_story.html

That’s exactly the way I’m thinking. Materiality to win, Exacta box with the other three contenders, in addition, key AP 2nd around the other chalk for the tri, as I mentioned in the other thread.

f2tornado
06-05-2015, 10:06 AM
It's going boil down to if AP gets loose on the lead. If the other jockeys let him get too far ahead the race might be over at the mile pole. I do fully expect AP to be on the lead at 9F but decelerating rapidly over the last 3F. Pace parameters by Raman and others suggest AP could run the slowest final quarter in the race. It's just a matter of how far ahead he will be for whether or not he will be caught at the end. If Frosted or any other horse is within 4 lengths of him with 2F to go then I expect the favorite to be defeated.

racko
06-05-2015, 10:33 AM
and hope AP runs out.

elhelmete
06-05-2015, 11:20 AM
I have a nagging but irrational attraction to Keen Ice.

BlueChip@DRF
06-05-2015, 11:37 AM
I have a nagging but irrational attraction to Keen Ice.

Hunch play! Go for it!

BlueChip@DRF
06-05-2015, 11:38 AM
and hope AP runs out.


You think there will be a bridgejumper?

five-eighths
06-05-2015, 11:54 AM
I think Materiality will be stuck doing the dirty work and either Frosted or Madefromlucky will scoop out the win if AP cannot hold on. Not sure if any of the closers will hit the board. I think the post will compromise Mubta's chances.

luisbe
06-05-2015, 02:12 PM
AP is going to hit the board, unless there’s some kind of trouble such as CC experienced last year. Eight out of that 12 that failed, came in 2nd or 3rd and the other four had legitimate excuses.

Dick Jerardi is picking Materiality:

http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/horse_racing/20150605_Materiality_to_spoil_American_Pharoah_s_T riple_Crown_bid.html

Andy Beyer hedging and giving out my exacta box:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/american-pharoah-may-win-the-triple-crown-but-im-betting-against-it/2015/06/04/9f1e3c92-0ab9-11e5-95fd-d580f1c5d44e_story.html

That’s exactly the way I’m thinking. Materiality to win, Exacta box with the other three contenders, in addition, key AP 2nd around the other chalk for the tri, as I mentioned in the other thread.

I believe AP is is another league compared to CC.

pandy
06-05-2015, 02:14 PM
http://www.handicappingwinners.com/free_picks.htm

racko
06-05-2015, 02:31 PM
why not. the odds are with him to hit the board

Laminarman
06-05-2015, 02:48 PM
I'm really struggling here. I do want to see a TC win (never experienced it on TV or in "real time" or live.) My feeble attempts at handicapping this race and doing my work are as follows:

Materiality presses AP and they both lose gas on the final kick.
Frosted kicks for the win (don't know why but I like this horse's chances a lot)

$50 superfecta:

Frosted
Materiality
AP/MFL
Keen Ice

razorback5
06-05-2015, 02:54 PM
Looks like Keen Ice is going to burn some money. I really don't see anything with him that makes me think he will even complete the bottom of the exotics. Complete toss for me alone with Materiality.

Tor Ekman
06-05-2015, 02:54 PM
Materiality presses AP and they both lose gas on the final kick.
Frosted kicks for the win (don't know why but I like this horse's chances a lot)

Pretty much how I see it, but with Keen Ice joining Frosted in a battle to the wire.

fmhealth
06-05-2015, 02:59 PM
My usual bet in this scenario is everyone to show except AP. Small investment for the possibility of a material return. I know with 100% certainty that I'll be cashing at least two tickets.

Should be an exciting day in racing. Win or lose it will my last wager until the end of Oct. Opening day @ TUP.

Be Well,
fmhealth

Hoofless_Wonder
06-05-2015, 03:17 PM
With both AP and Frosted likely to be in the super and the longer shots like Frammento and Keen Ice not likely to be better than 3rd, this makes it a tough race to bet. I'm probably going to choose about a half dozen cold supers and two or three cold tris and hope for the best. The exacta is not looking high enough to play.

Unlike last year, when I despised Chrome, I'm oddly quite neutral about AP. He really hasn't won the dazzling race I look for in a great horse, but he's been winning easy, and you have to wonder if he's got another gear....

deathandgravity
06-05-2015, 03:27 PM
I hope for a Triple Crown!

but..... Keen Ice is my play.

In my limited database (about 5000 races)
Sire Curlin @ 1 1/2 miles has a whopping ROI of +290%

Aerocraft67
06-05-2015, 03:47 PM
The prevailing sentiment is to root for :5: AP but make at least a token bet against him. I find it hard to get compensated for that; the top upset choices look underlaid themselves. I have to go all the way down to :7: Keen Ice to find something resembling a potential overlay, and that's mainly because there's more room to work with at 20-1; maybe I'd take 15-1. I prefer :8: Materiality over :6: Frosted, so :8: looks fair enough on the ML, but I suspect it gets bet down. :1: Mubtaahij is intriguing, but not compelling, at 10-1, maybe 15-1 or even 12-1.

Like everybody else, I'm looking for a compelling distance runner to prevail should AP fail. Lacking a strong singular choice, good to have a big price in the mix. I figure you can swing for the fence and drop the chalk out entirely or surgically keep some in the mix. Maybe there's a shred of value in :7: / :5: rather than :5: / :7: , not to mention bigger odds. That reasoning might also make :1: playable, at the risk of spreading too thin. I also like to offset early and late running styles in the exotics.

Something like the following:
1 Win (7.0x) :7:
3 Exactas (2.0x) :1: , :7: , :8: / :5:
2 Exactas (1.0x) :7: + :8:
4 Trifectas (1.0x) :7: , :8: / :5: , :7: , :8: / :5: , :7: , :8:
6 Trifectas (0.5x) :1: + :7: + :8:
18 Superfectas (0.1x) :1: , :7: , :8: / :1: , :5: , :7: , :8: / :1: , :5: , :7: , :8:/ :1: , :5: , :7: , :8:

BlueChip@DRF
06-05-2015, 03:57 PM
why not. the odds are with him to hit the board

The size of the pool might negate this or at least minimalize the payoffs.

Cratos
06-05-2015, 05:13 PM
Shttp://i405.photobucket.com/albums/pp137/lottakash/AP%20befor%20BELMONT...EXTWs_zpsudubfl9t.png (http://s405.photobucket.com/user/lottakash/media/AP%20befor%20BELMONT...EXTWs_zpsudubfl9t.png.html)

My take so far, is that nothing that anyone has said so far makes a very compelling case, other than the history of the Belmont, for any horse to beat AP at face PP value...

I am strictly an "Angle" player, and I still like the angle that AP has going for him...I liked him pre Derby, and the Preakness, and nothing that he has shown me so far, suggests that the Angle has met it's end yet......

The Angle is, "The Extended Win" (EXTW)....AP has shown in every single recent race that he hasn't really shown his best stuff yet....In each of the listed races shown, shows that he had captured the lead by the mid-stretch call, and extended that very lead to the wire...They weren't just good wins, they were extended wins....This is one of my pet angles, and the EXTW implies, for me, of better things to come for any horse that has it...I look for it incessantly..

Except for his Derby, where he was a total "mental wreck", where he had to overcome all that wasted pre-race and post parade energy expenditure, to still capture the win, even so, his other races suggest much more to come....I truly believe that is why VE, in the Derby, had to really get into him thru lane, he just needed a wake up call, to get AP to dig in and show his real class...And he still won it despite that pre race meltdown.. Imo a lesser horse would've closed up shop long before the wire after expending so much energy pre-race....He showed me much heart and bravery in that Derby win... And those attributes for me are signs of class and/or of better things to come..

The other races, he just did what he was supposed to do, which was to win, with ease...Not as in a big win, but an "extended win"...

I know others, with good reason, have stated that his end races wern't very fast, but I look at it like this, he just did what he needed to do to win...But, in his listed running lines for all to see, we notice that he rose to each and every occasion by extending his lead thru the lane to the wire, and that is all that he needed to do in each race instance...I don't think that I need any further proof that there is more to this horse and in his tank based on his EXTWs...I don't think that we have seen this horse's best yet...I am banking on it...

Since AP will obviously be a prohibitive favorite in the win slot, I will: Wager a straight one way exacta with "AP on top of "Frosted", and a smaller ex-box with the two (to save the big bet if possible)


:jump:
Good Luck to all in the last Jewel of the TC...
I might be out on this “tree limb” by myself, but my top two choices in this year’s Belmont Stakes are Frosted and Mubtaahij.

My choice is made on the belief that the best horse in the race bred to get the Belmont distance in a winning time is to me; Frosted.

This horse is out of Tapit who bred last year’s Belmont winner), Tonalist (which I had and predicted to win on this Forum; and Frosted has a race over the Belmont surface plus he was gaining on American Pharoah at Churchill Downs in this year’s Kentucky Derby.

According to Trakus data, Frosted ran the last quarter of the Derby approximately 2/5 seconds faster than American Pharoah and ran the Derby race 7 feet farther than the winner,

What about American Pharoah? I don’t believe 1-1/2 miles is his distance; I see him as a Honest Pleasure type with 7F to 1/1/8M being his best distances.

Mubtaahij is my “wake up” longshot.

BlueChip@DRF
06-05-2015, 05:19 PM
The prevailing sentiment is to root for :5: AP but make at least a token bet against him. I find it hard to get compensated for that; the top upset choices look underlaid themselves. I have to go all the way down to :7: Keen Ice to find something resembling a potential overlay, and that's mainly because there's more room to work with at 20-1; maybe I'd take 15-1. I prefer :8: Materiality over :6: Frosted, so :8: looks fair enough on the ML, but I suspect it gets bet down. :1: Mubtaahij is intriguing, but not compelling, at 10-1, maybe 15-1 or even 12-1.

Like everybody else, I'm looking for a compelling distance runner to prevail should AP fail. Lacking a strong singular choice, good to have a big price in the mix. I figure you can swing for the fence and drop the chalk out entirely or surgically keep some in the mix. Maybe there's a shred of value in :7: / :5: rather than :5: / :7: , not to mention bigger odds. That reasoning might also make :1: playable, at the risk of spreading too thin. I also like to offset early and late running styles in the exotics.

Something like the following:
1 Win (7.0x) :7:
3 Exactas (2.0x) :1: , :7: , :8: / :5:
2 Exactas (1.0x) :7: + :8:
4 Trifectas (1.0x) :7: , :8: / :5: , :7: , :8: / :5: , :7: , :8:
6 Trifectas (0.5x) :1: + :7: + :8:
18 Superfectas (0.1x) :1: , :7: , :8: / :1: , :5: , :7: , :8: / :1: , :5: , :7: , :8:/ :1: , :5: , :7: , :8:

:2::3::4::6: saver box in all exotics. :)

Aerocraft67
06-05-2015, 05:34 PM
:2::3::4::6: saver box in all exotics. :)

I call it the "defrosted pharoah underneath."

jtschmidt
06-05-2015, 05:39 PM
$.50 super "box" (really a big key but dont wanna write all combos"

Frosted
Keen Ice
all
all

In any combination. $180. Hoping AP and Materiality break poor or dont get the distance and can miss the ticket. It is the Belmont, anything can happen and I think one or two bombs are destined to hit the super and one of the chalk missing it.

Keen Ice to win. Hoping for 25/1, but will play at 20/1.

pandy
06-05-2015, 06:03 PM
According to Trakus data, Frosted ran the last quarter of the Derby approximately 2/5 seconds faster than American Pharoah and ran the Derby race 7 feet farther than the winner


I watched the replay several times today. Frosted really made a solid wide run on the turn and finished gamely, and the way the pace was it appeared that he ran against the race shape. His Wood Memorial was also visually impressive, three wide first turn, four wide last turn, drew clear under a hand ride. Hard to believe it's the same horse that spit the bit in the Fountain of Youth.

Lemon Drop Husker
06-05-2015, 06:13 PM
:3::4::6::8: saver box in all exotics. :)

I agree.

tanner12oz
06-05-2015, 06:14 PM
$50 win :1:

EQUIPACE
06-05-2015, 06:15 PM
.50 cent Super = $60
2-3-4-5-6-8
5-8
2-3-4-5-6-8
2-3-4-5-6-8

.50 cent Super = $60
2-3-4-5-6-8
2-3-4-5-6-8
5-8
2-3-4-5-6-8

Good Luck 2 All!

John
~¿o

BlueChip@DRF
06-05-2015, 06:20 PM
.50 cent Super = $60
2-3-4-5-6-8
5-8
2-3-4-5-6-8
2-3-4-5-6-8

.50 cent Super = $60
2-3-4-5-6-8
2-3-4-5-6-8
5-8
2-3-4-5-6-8

Good Luck 2 All!

John
~¿o


Now that's what i'm talkin' about!

Cratos
06-05-2015, 07:40 PM
I watched the replay several times today. Frosted really made a solid wide run on the turn and finished gamely, and the way the pace was it appeared that he ran against the race shape. His Wood Memorial was also visually impressive, three wide first turn, four wide last turn, drew clear under a hand ride. Hard to believe it's the same horse that spit the bit in the Fountain of Youth.
I have been going to the races on the NYRA circuit since first attending in 1967 as a teenager and my first Belmont Stakes was the Secretariat demolition of the competition and world record on dirt for 1-1/2 miles.

Therefore the only "sprinter-type" that has won this race during my Belmont Stakes tenure is Bold Forbes in 1976.

ILovetheInner
06-05-2015, 07:52 PM
I have been going to the races on the NYRA circuit since first attending in 1967 as a teenager and my first Belmont Stakes was the Secretariat demolition of the competition and world record on dirt for 1-1/2 miles.

Therefore the only "sprinter-type" that has won this race during my Belmont Stakes tenure is Bold Forbes in 1976.

.....and he had Angel on his back, lol!

pandy
06-05-2015, 07:55 PM
I have been going to the races on the NYRA circuit since first attending in 1967 as a teenager and my first Belmont Stakes was the Secretariat demolition of the competition and world record on dirt for 1-1/2 miles.

Therefore the only "sprinter-type" that has won this race during my Belmont Stakes tenure is Bold Forbes in 1976.


Who do you think is a sprinter type? AP? He did win at a mile and a quarter.

Matt Bryan
06-05-2015, 08:06 PM
I believe AP is is another league compared to CC.

Well, believe what you will, but AP's #'s aren't any more impressive than CC's. Believing things is what leads to faulty reasoning. And, you know, AP is facing a weaker Belmont field than CC, and should he win he'll be talked about and talked about....not because he was truly great like past Triple Crown winners, but because he had some luck.

Bullet Plane
06-05-2015, 08:07 PM
Well, ....

I'd say it's about time a favorite won this thing!

We haven't had a favorite win since Afleet Alex in 2005.

That's ten years folks.

The average odds on the winner has been 14-1.

I thought AP's best race was the Derby. He had to show grit to win that one.

It wasn't just coast home on the lead. He showed me something. He dug in game.

Damn game!

Having said that... He will be way, way over bet.

I won't have a ticket on him, but I think he'll win.

MOTO!

RXB
06-05-2015, 08:20 PM
AP is facing a weaker Belmont field than CC

Which horses in last year's field were better? I don't recall any of them having ran a 110 Beyer off of a legit pace like Materiality has; I doubt that he's any less horse than Tonalist. Frosted looks like a re-run of Wicked Strong. And Madefromlucky seems similar to Commissioner.

Ocala Mike
06-05-2015, 08:22 PM
Small bettor here - $20 win :6:
1 exacta, :1: :2: :3: :4: :7: / :6:
2 exacta, :8: / :6:
1 tri :5: / :6: /ALL
1 tri :5: :8: / :5: :8: / :6:
1 tri :5: / :6: / :8:

$36 out.

pandy
06-05-2015, 08:25 PM
Which horses in last year's field were better? I don't recall any of them having ran a 110 Beyer off of a legit pace like Materiality has; I doubt that he's any less horse than Tonalist. Frosted looks like a re-run of Wicked Strong. And Madefromlucky seems similar to Commissioner.


I also think it's a similar field to last year's Belmont. And a pretty good field. Horseplayers are often cynical and a lot of them want to knock all the horses but this field is probably better than many people think.

luisbe
06-05-2015, 08:38 PM
Well, believe what you will, but AP's #'s aren't any more impressive than CC's. Believing things is what leads to faulty reasoning. And, you know, AP is facing a weaker Belmont field than CC, and should he win he'll be talked about and talked about....not because he was truly great like past Triple Crown winners, but because he had some luck.

There's nothing reasoned about this race, anyone could win, who's going to reason that? Unfortunately there not "reasoningmeter" to measure that; the same goes to say that "AP is facing a weaker Belmont field than CC", where's you measure?
That's why I re affirm my subjective opinion.

Cratos
06-05-2015, 08:40 PM
Who do you think is a sprinter type? AP? He did win at a mile and a quarter.
Yes he did win at 1-1/4m albeit a lethargic pace.

However if he runs the first 1/2m in a sub-47 as he did in the Preakness I don't think he will be around for the finish.

Sprinter-types are horses that typically display early speed, but cannot sustain it over a distance and 1-1/2 miles is a distance in racing terms by any measurement.

Cratos
06-05-2015, 08:49 PM
Well, believe what you will, but AP's #'s aren't any more impressive than CC's. Believing things is what leads to faulty reasoning. And, you know, AP is facing a weaker Belmont field than CC, and should he win he'll be talked about and talked about....not because he was truly great like past Triple Crown winners, but because he had some luck.
Beside Tonalist who appears to be a "Belmont Specialist" which horse(s) from last year's Belmont Stakes race have distinguished itself as a 4yo?

ArlJim78
06-05-2015, 10:15 PM
Before the derby I had picked out Pharoah and Frosted as standouts from the others, and I'm not changing my mind here. The most likely outcome imo is that Pharoah romps like he did in the Preakness, running them off their feet. I expect Materiality to be the closest pursuer and most likely pace casualty.
I think a lot of Frosted and with the right trip and pace setup I give him a shot at the upset. I don't see anyone else with a strong claim on the win end. I'll use Tale of Verve and Madefromlucky as keys to complete a couple supers, and a backup tri.

:5: / :6: / :2: :3: / :1: :2: :3: :8:
:5: / :6: / :1: :8: / :2: :3:

small backup
:6: / :5: / :2: :3:
:6: / :5: / :1: :8: / :2: :3:

pandy
06-05-2015, 10:27 PM
His early to late pace numbers do confirm that.

jtschmidt
06-05-2015, 10:29 PM
I also think it's a similar field to last year's Belmont. And a pretty good field. Horseplayers are often cynical and a lot of them want to knock all the horses but this field is probably better than many people think.

Couldnt agree more. Thats why im using Frosted Keen Ice and All All in supers. Anything can happen in the Belmont as we have seen before. I do not think you can discount any horse from hitting the super.

pandy
06-05-2015, 10:33 PM
This is tougher than the Preakness, especially the way that race played out. He has to beat the UAE Derby winner, the Florida Derby winner, The Wood Memorial Winner, and the Peter Pan (which was over this track) winner.

ArlJim78
06-05-2015, 10:47 PM
This is tougher than the Preakness, especially the way that race played out. He has to beat the UAE Derby winner, the Florida Derby winner, The Wood Memorial Winner, and the Peter Pan (which was over this track) winner.
He's already easily beaten all these horses along the way either in Arkansas, Kentucky or Maryland. Why are they now so much tougher to beat?

thaskalos
06-05-2015, 10:56 PM
He's already easily beaten all these horses along the way either in Arkansas, Kentucky or Maryland. Why are they now so much tougher to beat?

Because that's the nature of the Belmont Stakes. Horses who have no business winning beat horses who are seemingly "unbeatable". I have no problem tossing AP from the top slot...but I am a lot less confident in picking the winner. I predict a shocker...as is usually the case in this race.

BlueChip@DRF
06-05-2015, 11:01 PM
Too hard.
Just going to play a 10-cent Super Wheels and the 50-cent Pick-4

10-cent supers:
:2::5::6: / :2::5::6: / :2::5::6: / ALL
:2::5::6: / :2::5::6: / ALL / :2::5::6:
:2::5::6: / ALL / :2::5::6: / :2::5::6:
ALL / :2::5::6: / :2::5::6: / :2::5::6:

50-cent Pick-4 (Race 8): a big swing for the fences
:1::7::10: / :4::5::6: / :2::4::9: / :2:

Total: $25.50

I already hit in the Preakness, so I really shouldn't over think this race because lightning does not strike twice.

There is a bomb I like in the 6th race at Belmont: :4: Wealth to Me $5W/$15P


I will probably add a $20 Win saver on :2: Tale Of Verve

theotherside
06-05-2015, 11:11 PM
this is the closest thing i have ever seen in a horse that looks like a mortal lock in a race.he should win by open lengths.

BlueChip@DRF
06-05-2015, 11:23 PM
this is the closest thing i have ever seen in a horse that looks like a mortal lock in a race.he should win by open lengths.

That is what worries me - when it just looks too easy.

Tor Ekman
06-05-2015, 11:32 PM
History doesn't repeat but it rhymes . . . Just re-watched 1979 Belmont . . . can envision AP losing in somewhat similar fashion as Spectacular Bid

headhawg
06-05-2015, 11:33 PM
this is the closest thing i have ever seen in a horse that looks like a mortal lock in a race.he should win by open lengths.If I had a nickel for every time I heard this I could have retired years ago.

La billos
06-05-2015, 11:39 PM
Super for .20 cents
Frosted/ ALL

cj's dad
06-05-2015, 11:45 PM
13 chsances in the last 35 years- No such thing as a lock. I lime the #3

beefas
06-05-2015, 11:45 PM
:2: :5: / :1: :3: :4: ....$50 dollar exacta :2: / :3: ..$100 W on the :2: .. Good luck everyone!

theotherside
06-05-2015, 11:51 PM
he will either control the pace or sit right off it and in either situation there's no horse in this race that can out run him. Frosted is a one run closer ,materiality passed dead horses in the derby forget the trouble at the start just go to his Florida derby win where after going all out head and head with upstart ran the last quarter in a horrific 39 and 4/5 sec, madefromlucky although losing twice already to ap may be improving and maybe he can pose a threat to ap off his peter pan race, but I wouldn't bet on it,the others are also rans who have no chance at all.

Light
06-06-2015, 12:17 AM
Materiality has the speed to beat AP out of the gate and go wire to wire. Frosted has the kick to bury AP in the stretch. Both Materiality and Frosted have speed ratings that AP has yet to reach. They are fresh. AP is doing his 4th race in a row at a ridiculous distance. An impossible task for any 3yo. Ap off the board.

Rex Phinney
06-06-2015, 12:42 AM
He's already easily beaten all these horses along the way either in Arkansas, Kentucky or Maryland. Why are they now so much tougher to beat?

Come on man you are better than that.

He hasn't beaten any of them at 12 furlongs.

He hasn't beaten any of them at Belmont, it's different there, it just is.

ArlJim78
06-06-2015, 12:47 AM
Because that's the nature of the Belmont Stakes. Horses who have no business winning beat horses who are seemingly "unbeatable". I have no problem tossing AP from the top slot...but I am a lot less confident in picking the winner. I predict a shocker...as is usually the case in this race.
Often I don't like the favorite in this race and play against, but I do so based on a specific feeling or observation or judgement about that horses suitability for the distance and his competition. I don't really quite understand predicting a shocker based on results from prior years with different horses.

ArlJim78
06-06-2015, 01:02 AM
Come on man you are better than that.

He hasn't beaten any of them at 12 furlongs.

He hasn't beaten any of them at Belmont, it's different there, it just is.
The point was made that its tougher because of who he is facing.
Of course its a new course and distance, that is only stating the obvious.

So no favorite can ever win the Belmont because "it's different there, it just is"? Come on man, aren't YOU better than that?

PaceMasterT
06-06-2015, 01:52 AM
he will either control the pace or sit right off it and in either situation there's no horse in this race that can out run him. Frosted is a one run closer ,materiality passed dead horses in the derby forget the trouble at the start just go to his Florida derby win where after going all out head and head with upstart ran the last quarter in a horrific 39 and 4/5 sec, madefromlucky although losing twice already to ap may be improving and maybe he can pose a threat to ap off his peter pan race, but I wouldn't bet on it,the others are also rans who have no chance at all.


Yes, but sitting off of a 49.x half is totally different than sitting off of a 46.x half. Would Victor be able to tell the difference and adjust accordingly? History says he wouldn't as his win percentage at Belmont (5.5%) is way below his lifetime percentage of (15.3%). I know that he has ridden too few times at Belmont to provide any statistical significance, but you would expect him to be shipping there on live horses where they were expecting to cash in big, so, you would think that he would be winning quite a bit more than 5.5% of the time.

arw629
06-06-2015, 01:54 AM
I feel like a lot of you don't realize how big of a difference 10 furlongs and 12 furlongs is....How many times do you see a horse with a romping maiden special win at 6 furlongs go off chalk in the next race out against allowance horses going 8 furlongs and fade hard in the lane? Yea they looked great going 6f but they cant get 8....I feel like some of the best prices I hit on daily basis are horses of this nature....Look at the field Made from Lucky beat in the Peter Pan....A bunch of sprinters and milers with big figs stretching out another furlong or two with big figures and they got beat

That being said....Yea AP looks unbeatable at 8 furs to 10 furs but what about 12? There is a big question mark there....Remember handicapping the Belmont Stakes is not picking the fastest horse...it's picking the horse that can run the furthest....(I heard that line on a tv show once)....

My analysis: Todd Pletcher is hitting at a ridiculous clip (somewhere in the 50% area at Belmont a month into the Belmont meet....this percentage would be impressive anywhere but Belmont this time of year is absolutely incredible....I think Materiality is going to gun out of the gate just like in the Fla Derby vs Upstart....Draw a line thru Materiality's Kentucky's Derby---didn't break well, big field, inexperience.....I think if AP lets him go Materiality could potentially steal it on the front end...if not they both go too quick early and the other Pletcher comes rolling home....Made From Lucky is proven at Belmont and the Pletcher heater gives me more confidence here.... As for the rest of the field...:1: finished kind of evenly in the KY Derby but I wouldn't be shocked...:2: is a true grinder....some horses have a big turn of foot when they close and have a better kick going one turn but this horse has a long grinding close that is suited better for longer distances...I don't think he can grind his way there but I think he hits the ticket....:4: is very comparable to :2: but a notch below in my eyes...Is Zito going to go Birdstone on AP here!?!?!???----NOTE THE POST POSITION-BIRDSTONE WAS ALSO :4:....:6: will want to sit the same trip as :3:, but I prefer :3: bc of the Pletcher heater and twice the price.....:7: in 4 starts as a 3 yo has run 7th, 4th, 3rd, and 5th this yr....comparable stats to :4:

That being said I got a live Gold Cup/Belmont Stakes $20 double with :3: and :8: in the Belmont paying $1230 and $510 respectively....Good luck all!

DeltaLover
06-06-2015, 02:53 AM
I feel like a lot of you don't realize how big of a difference 10 furlongs and 12 furlongs is....

It is so good you've helped us realize it :bang: :bang:

LottaKash
06-06-2015, 02:57 AM
Yes, but sitting off of a 49.x half is totally different than sitting off of a 46.x half. Would Victor be able to tell the difference and adjust accordingly? .

Perhaps by now, Victor has given this some thought, and being a professional, has finally learned a thing or two, and will change all that on raceday...

Hoofless_Wonder
06-06-2015, 03:18 AM
I watched the replay several times today. Frosted really made a solid wide run on the turn and finished gamely, and the way the pace was it appeared that he ran against the race shape. His Wood Memorial was also visually impressive, three wide first turn, four wide last turn, drew clear under a hand ride. Hard to believe it's the same horse that spit the bit in the Fountain of Youth.

I'm thinking the "minor" throat surgery that Frosted had after the FOY might not have been so minor. Sure ran like he flipped his palate. I bet him big in the Derby, and cried a little.

The thing I don't like about Frosted is that he hates to win. Even in his workout last week, he did not want to go by his workmate. He's a hanger. Which of course may not matter at all at 12 furlongs and they're all dead tired....

theotherside
06-06-2015, 04:14 AM
your right it is different if they go 49 ap will win by the length of the stretch.

Lemon Drop Husker
06-06-2015, 05:34 AM
he will either control the pace or sit right off it and in either situation there's no horse in this race that can out run him. Frosted is a one run closer ,materiality passed dead horses in the derby forget the trouble at the start just go to his Florida derby win where after going all out head and head with upstart ran the last quarter in a horrific 39 and 4/5 sec, madefromlucky although losing twice already to ap may be improving and maybe he can pose a threat to ap off his peter pan race, but I wouldn't bet on it,the others are also rans who have no chance at all.

Actually, I almost have a nickel for every dollar of every horse who has failed in their Triple Crown chase since 1978.

How people still blatantly call out greatness of a horse in winning a Triple Crown before it happens nowadays simply mystifies me.

There are reasons beyond reasons why AP won't finish the deal. Why people can't see that...., yet again, is almost beyond stupidity. I mean, how many times do you need to be kicked in the nuts to figure it out?

AP may well be different. And I think he may well be. But to say no other horse in this field has no chance is simply ludicrous.

theotherside
06-06-2015, 09:49 AM
your right it is beyond stupidity its all right there for you to see, he doesn't need a certain pace or a certain half time to close on or a certain type of circumstance for him to win, the race goes through him, there's no horse in this race that has shown his type of superiority, he has already battered these horses so if he shows up today and he runs like he normally does he wont get beat.

Relwob Owner
06-06-2015, 09:55 AM
I just don't see AP getting this distance and figure if Im wrong, at least we have a TC winner.

Big EB 3,6,7,8
Small EB 1,3,6,8
Big win bet 8. Loved him in the Derby and not jumping off.
Small win bet 6



Good luck to all

Matt Bryan
06-06-2015, 10:04 AM
Beside Tonalist who appears to be a "Belmont Specialist" which horse(s) from last year's Belmont Stakes race have distinguished itself as a 4yo?

Since when do we use 4-year olds as a measure of 3-year olds?

pandy
06-06-2015, 10:20 AM
The point was made that its tougher because of who he is facing.
Of course its a new course and distance, that is only stating the obvious.

So no favorite can ever win the Belmont because "it's different there, it just is"? Come on man, aren't YOU better than that?

6 favorites have won in the last 36 years.

pandy
06-06-2015, 10:21 AM
I'm thinking the "minor" throat surgery that Frosted had after the FOY might not have been so minor. Sure ran like he flipped his palate. I bet him big in the Derby, and cried a little.

The thing I don't like about Frosted is that he hates to win. Even in his workout last week, he did not want to go by his workmate. He's a hanger. Which of course may not matter at all at 12 furlongs and they're all dead tired....

He didn't hang in the Wood. After being 3 wide first turn, 4 wide last turn while moving strongly, he pulled away under a hand ride.

pandy
06-06-2015, 10:30 AM
He's already easily beaten all these horses along the way either in Arkansas, Kentucky or Maryland. Why are they now so much tougher to beat?

Well, you mentioned that you think Frosted is the only one with a chance to upset. If you watch the Derby, I think you can make a case that Frosted actually ran better than AP. The best horse doesn't always win. AP got a nice trip in the clear in the Derby, Frosted got shuffled back and had to mount a wide rally and he made up a lot of ground.

Oxbow and Palace Malice (Preakness and Belmont) are two horses that had rough trips (used in fast paces) and both came back to turn the tables on the horses that had previously beaten them.

Horses that finish in runner up positions often turn the tables on beat the horses that previously beat them, and often at overlaid odds. I actually know a few handicappers that use this as a system.

If your premise was true then the last 12 horses that lost the Belmont would have won the T. Crown, they too had already beaten most or all of the other horses.

dartman51
06-06-2015, 10:36 AM
I will be rooting for AP to close the deal on the Triple Crown, but, I will be making a recreational bet,just in case he doesn't, on a horse that is getting little attention. Small bet on the :3: MADEFROMLUCKY. :ThmbUp:

Kash$
06-06-2015, 10:51 AM
AP-MadefromLucky exacta box
Win bet on Madefromlucky

HalvOnHorseracing
06-06-2015, 11:48 AM
This is a two scenario race in my opinion. If AP is a freak and continues to outrun his breeding, he may be an easy winner. He is far and away the speed here and could set his own pace (remember Bold Forbes). On the other hand, the Belmont is the test of champions for a good reason. Horses don't accidently win a mile and a half race. Frosted has every reason to turn the tables, we haven't seen the best of Materiality yet, Mubtaahij is a cut above many of the Dubai three year olds, and even the closer Keen Ice has some supporters. I say you play AP on top, then throw him out and make a combination bet with the other contenders.

Aerocraft67
06-06-2015, 12:16 PM
Not sure how much stock to put in these early odds (http://www.belmontstakes.com/belmont-live-odds.aspx) , but it looks like Keen Ice is taking a little money, while Mubtaahij and Materiality are not. The favorite is 1/2!

I was favoring :7: over :8: and only flirting with :1: because of anticipated value, but this may even the score.

:2: and :3: have drifted up—I know there are some Madefromlucky backers here—but :4: has come down. Maybe just shots at the longest odds on the board?

DeltaLover
06-06-2015, 12:20 PM
The more I study the race, the more convinced I become that is going to be an AP show and those who will challenge him will get destroyed... Depending on the prices, I might try something like the following:

Exacta:

:5: :2:
:5: :3:
:5: :4:

thaskalos
06-06-2015, 12:25 PM
After studying the race at length...I have come to the conclusion that American Pharoah has a solid chance of finishing at the bottom of the trifecta. My hope was that I could leave him off of my tickets altogether. :mad:

DeltaLover
06-06-2015, 12:28 PM
After studying the race at length...I have come to the conclusion that American Pharoah has a solid chance of finishing at the bottom of the trifecta. My hope was that I could leave him off of my tickets altogether. :mad:

If this is your handicapping opinion, then you should concentrate on exactas and win, doubles and horizontal gimmicks, pushing a large pay day...

thaskalos
06-06-2015, 12:33 PM
If this is your handicapping opinion, then you should concentrate on exactas and win, doubles and horizontal gimmicks, pushing a large pay day...
Yes...the exacta will be my main play here. But I will venture into the trifecta as well...hoping that AP runs out altogether.

DeltaLover
06-06-2015, 12:38 PM
Yes...the exacta will be my main play here. But I will venture into the trifecta as well...hoping that AP runs out altogether.

I have to agree that in the case that you are visualizing AP finishing third, it will be very possible for him to end up within the last horses of the race (if he manages to finish at all)..


My personal opinion though is, that to a great extend this is a one horse race and the only way for AP to be beaten, is for something exceptionally bad to happen to him...

horses4courses
06-06-2015, 12:40 PM
Keen Ice seems to be the wiseguy horse.
Seldom helps them to win, but he's taking action.

wisconsin
06-06-2015, 01:36 PM
Keen Ice seems to be the wiseguy horse.
Seldom helps them to win, but he's taking action.


Problem with Keen Ice is that horses like him promise more than they can ever deliver. He is eligible for N1X. I can never fall for any horse who is NEVER in contention by the 1/8th pole regardless of the distance. Not for mine.

BlueChip@DRF
06-06-2015, 01:47 PM
Feels like Derby Day for me. I placed my bets and have a feeling I just donated money on my end.

clocker7
06-06-2015, 02:04 PM
Although I haven't developed any emotional attachment to AP, something tells me that he will do it today. Not that he is a star, only that this crop is bland. We'll see.

Betting? Never bet the Belmont, it's an anomaly. It's a chump race for rotating heroes bragging about their scores 8-12 years ago (which they have exhausted ever since).

Aerocraft67
06-06-2015, 03:20 PM
Something like the following:
1 Win (7.0x) :7:
3 Exactas (2.0x) :1: , :7: , :8: / :5:
2 Exactas (1.0x) :7: + :8:
4 Trifectas (1.0x) :7: , :8: / :5: , :7: , :8: / :5: , :7: , :8:
6 Trifectas (0.5x) :1: + :7: + :8:
18 Superfectas (0.1x) :1: , :7: , :8: / :1: , :5: , :7: , :8: / :1: , :5: , :7: , :8:/ :1: , :5: , :7: , :8:

Modified my wager:
Exacta key :8: with :1: , :7:
Trifecta :1: + :7: + :8:
Superfecta All / :1: , :7: , :8: / :1: , :7: , :8: / :1: , :7: , :8: , with "all" also in the second and third slot

Will try to avoid last minute plays but will probably place a win and duplicate some exotics if odds warrant.

Light
06-06-2015, 03:23 PM
I'm thinking the "minor" throat surgery that Frosted had after the FOY might not have been so minor. Sure ran like he flipped his palate. I bet him big in the Derby, and cried a little.

The thing I don't like about Frosted is that he hates to win. Even in his workout last week, he did not want to go by his workmate. He's a hanger. Which of course may not matter at all at 12 furlongs and they're all dead tired....

To me, the much bigger picture on Frosted is that he bounced off the Wood Mem. According to Bris, he ran a 107 in the Wood. That was 9 points above anything he put up before. I am very, very cautious betting any horse especially a 3yo who comes back after setting a top that much above his normal sr's.

Now look at Frosted's pattern in the last 4 races. A 98, then a regression to an 89. Then he goes to the Wood Mem. and jumps up to a 107. Next in the Derby he regresses to a 96. He has an up down pattern and today he is in the "up" mode.

Looking at AP's last 4, he has a 99,102,100, 100. Pretty even, but I don't see him getting a new top here which he needs to win this. Not after 3 races in a row. If anything I see a clunker coming up. Contrary to what J. Bailey said, I think AP has peaked and Frosted, Materiality and maybe some unknowns are ready to run back to their tops or exceed them.

Tom
06-06-2015, 05:11 PM
de Kock isn't here for the buffet.
He uses a Belmont jock today - good sign.

Only two horses have run TFUS figs over 120 - 3 for AF and 1 for Frosted.
Frosted has a really nice, even improvement pattern.

Materiality will be no surprise.

Will Kent D make it to the finish line this time?

098poi
06-06-2015, 05:45 PM
My picks from selection thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pensacola Pete
Frosted
Madefromlucky
American Pharoah



I agree 100%. I am not sure of the order but I think your top 2 are excellent win contenders. If AP wins though I will applaud him as a triple crown winner. I see no point in saying oh look who he beat and if he raced way back when he couldn't compete and blah, blah. There is only one potential TC winner running today and I wish him and all a safe trip. I won't be wagering.

Speed Figure
06-06-2015, 06:05 PM
Key with the :5: and top 5 box! hoping AP wins!

plainolebill
06-06-2015, 06:18 PM
I haven't made any bets yet, right now I'm leaning toward using Madeforlucky and Frammento in exactas and tris with the main contenders. I can't rule out AP altogether so I will make some bets with him in the top two slots.

Good luck to everyone.

lamboguy
06-06-2015, 06:25 PM
AMERICAN PHAROAH can pay up to $3.00 for show and you will have 3 spots!

EMD4ME
06-06-2015, 06:34 PM
I find it AMAZING how SO many people are truly convinced this horse (AP) can not lose.

In my soul, in my gut, in my heart, in my experience as a horseplayer for 4 plus decades, this horse WILL NOT WIN. Not only will he not win, it will be completely visible early enough, that he has NO SHOT during the race.

PERIOD.

sammy the sage
06-06-2015, 06:36 PM
AMERICAN PHAROAH can pay up to $3.00 for show and you will have 3 spots!

yeah and if a toad had wings he wouldn't bump his tail when he hopped...NYRA has been chicken little on show wagering on THIS card...but not on this race...

my prediction...$2:40 or less or NOTHING...50/50 he hits the board...

B.O.L. to THOSE show players....

Rookies
06-06-2015, 06:36 PM
Should be a TC winner.

But, for small wagering interest:

$5Ex

:6: Over :1: :5: :8:

GLTA!

cutchemist42
06-06-2015, 06:43 PM
Dont usually play exactas but 5,8/5,8,1.

098poi
06-06-2015, 06:43 PM
WTF is Burger King doing behind Baffert. Really classes up the occasion.

Tall One
06-06-2015, 06:46 PM
.50 tri box :1: :3: :5: :6:



GLA.. :ThmbUp:

Tall One
06-06-2015, 06:47 PM
WTF is Burger King doing behind Baffert. Really classes up the occasion.


Man...I was dying. WTF was going on there.

GTFOH!! :lol:

EMD4ME
06-06-2015, 07:01 PM
Man...I was dying. WTF was going on there.

GTFOH!! :lol:


I eat crow. Congratulations AP.

RXB
06-06-2015, 07:04 PM
I had mentioned a few weeks ago that it would be Materiality or pass for me. He did not look good on parade to me, low energy and then tossing his head during warmup, so I passed.

Congrats to the champ. He's a helluva horse.

pandy
06-06-2015, 07:10 PM
Nice final time, too. Wow.

sammy the sage
06-06-2015, 07:37 PM
yeah and if a toad had wings he wouldn't bump his tail when he hopped...NYRA has been chicken little on show wagering on THIS card...but not on this race...

my prediction...$2:40 or less or NOTHING...50/50 he hits the board...

B.O.L. to THOSE show players....

wrong...missed by a DIME...was an awesome performance tho...

BlueChip@DRF
06-06-2015, 07:44 PM
WTF is Burger King doing behind Baffert. Really classes up the occasion.

That was GREAT!!!! This Triple Crown had EVERYTHING!!!!
http://assets.nydailynews.com/polopoly_fs/1.2249253.1433632703!/img/httpImage/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/article_635/king7n-1-web.jpg

098poi
06-06-2015, 07:46 PM
That was GREAT!!!! This Triple Crown had EVERYTHING!!!!
http://assets.nydailynews.com/polopoly_fs/1.2249253.1433632703!/img/httpImage/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/article_635/king7n-1-web.jpg

My God it's like a Twilight Zone episode! :lol:

BlueChip@DRF
06-06-2015, 07:49 PM
Burger King picked out the winner.

keithw84
06-06-2015, 07:53 PM
What a day!

I bet $10 WPS on the :6:, $2 Ex Box :5: :6:, and $2 Tri :6: :5: / :6: :5: / :3: :5: :6: :7:

Up about $120 for the day.

Sorry, I know everyone hates redboarding, and I'll admit my picks usually aren't this good... I walked home empty-handed after the first two jewels of the crown - picking Frosted to win the Derby and using Dortmund in all my exotics in the Preakness!

theotherside
06-06-2015, 08:17 PM
how bout now

ArlJim78
06-06-2015, 08:25 PM
What a day!

I bet $10 WPS on the :6:, $2 Ex Box :5: :6:, and $2 Tri :6: :5: / :6: :5: / :3: :5: :6: :7:

Up about $120 for the day.

Sorry, I know everyone hates redboarding, and I'll admit my picks usually aren't this good... I walked home empty-handed after the first two jewels of the crown - picking Frosted to win the Derby and using Dortmund in all my exotics in the Preakness!
good for you!
even though I was an AP man all the way, this was the only event that I cashed on in the series. feels good.