Who’s your Number 1 Belmont toss?

[Redboard]

Tale of Verve

Finished 2nd in the Preakness at 29-1, is being compared to a few other recent Dallas Stewart long shots who stepped up in a TC race:

2014, Commanding Curve: 2nd in derby(37-1) , 9th in Belmont, 4th in Jim Dandy, 9th in Travers

2013, Golden Soul: 2nd in derby(34-1), 9th in Belmont, 7th in Haskell, 8th in Travers

2008, Macho Again, didn’t run in derby, 2nd in Preakness(40-1), 5th in Belmont, 1st in Jim dandy, 8th in Travers, 2nd in Super Derby, 2009

Of the three, none actually hit-the-board for the rest of their three-year-old season, except for Macho Again. But Macho Again was a far superior colt when you compare their records before the Belmont. Macho Again broke his maiden on one try. It took Tale of Verve six tries. When’s the last time a Belmont winner took six tries to break his maiden? Macho Again had a successful 4YrOld campaign with wins in the Stephen Foster and New Orleans Handicap.

Looks like a toss to me. Feel free to talk me out of it.

[LemonSoupKid]

He clearly liked the slop

If it rains, though, muddy at worst Saturday, right?

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Agree on Tale of Verve. Got the perfect set up on an absolute swamp of a track in the Preakness to finish a soundly defeated 2nd. Over half the field simply didn't like the track.

The Truth Or Else is a toss for me as well, and an easier toss at that.

Basically went gate to wire on this track in an optional claiming $80K event in pedestrian fractions. And that was probably his best career race. Every time he has stepped up to this class of horse he has been soundly defeated. I don't see anything in his last 2 that say he has drastically improved since his trouncings in the Arkansas Derby or Rebel Stakes.

[horses4courses]

Agree on Tale of Verve. Got the perfect set up on an absolute swamp of a track in the Preakness to finish a soundly defeated 2nd. Over half the field simply didn't like the track.

The Truth Or Else is a toss for me as well, and an easier toss at that.

Basically went gate to wire on this track in an optional claiming $80K event in pedestrian fractions. And that was probably his best career race. Every time he has stepped up to this class of horse he has been soundly defeated. I don't see anything in his last 2 that say he has drastically improved since his trouncings in the Arkansas Derby or Rebel Stakes.

Agreed.
The Truth Or Else looks out of his depth.

[zico20]

My four are in order.

The Truth or Else
Tale of Verve
Frammento
Keen Ice

I think they are an easy toss for the trifecta and most likely the super. The last two are plodders that would need horses to completely stop running in the stretch for them to hit the bottom of the super.

[f2tornado]

My four are in order.

The Truth or Else - Prado
Tale of Verve - Stevens
Frammento - Smith
Keen Ice - Desormeaux

I think they are an easy toss for the trifecta and most likely the super. The last two are plodders that would need horses to completely stop running in the sftretch for them to hit the bottom of the super.

If I had to pick one to toss it would be Frammento but tough to dump Mike Smith. Those riders above represent a lot of winners, 7 of the last 17.

[Robert Fischer]

If AP either wins in dominant fashion or loses, the underneath positions could be less formful.

[BlueChip@DRF]

OK, I'll be the first to say American Pharaoh.


Tale Of Verve is my primary pick.
Coming in 3rd start off the layoff.
Connections breed and train for distance.
ToV has not had a hard campaign.
The idea is to make money, but I would not be opposed to seeing a coronation.
If I lose, so be it. I swung for the fences.

[Redboard]

Agree on Tale of Verve. Got the perfect set up on an absolute swamp of a track in the Preakness to finish a soundly defeated 2nd. Over half the field simply didn't like the track.

The Truth Or Else is a toss for me as well, and an easier toss at that.

Basically went gate to wire on this track in an optional claiming $80K event in pedestrian fractions. And that was probably his best career race. Every time he has stepped up to this class of horse he has been soundly defeated. I don't see anything in his last 2 that say he has drastically improved since his trouncings in the Arkansas Derby or Rebel Stakes.

No argument here with that toss. In addition to the points you made, he will only have had two weeks rest. If there one thing that history has shown, if you want your horse to run 12 panels for the first time in his life, make sure he's well rested! duh. McPeek must be daffy.
Some might think he might wire the field since the race is devoid of speed, sorry, that's not going to happen. Only DaTara has done that in the last 10 years in 2008. And the only reason he did it was because the jocks were so shocked that Big Brown collapsed, they over looked him. They kept looking around for BB.

[andtheyreoff]

American Pharaoh
The Truth or Else
Frammento
Keen Ice
Tale of Verve

I'm tossing those five and going from there.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

If I had to pick one to toss it would be Frammento but tough to dump Mike Smith. Those riders above represent a lot of winners, 7 of the last 17.

No way in H-E- double hockey sticks am I kicking Frammento. If Zito has proven anything, he has shown an affinity for getting horses to run monsters in the Belmont. Especially bombs like Birdstone and Da Tara.

Add in Frammento's excellent breeding for the 12 panels, and he'll be on nearly all my exotics tickets.

[tucker6]

American Pharaoh
The Truth or Else
Frammento
Keen Ice
Tale of Verve

I'm tossing those five and going from there.
So AP will not be in your tris and supers? I have no doubt he'll finish in the money. Too much class for him not too.

[beefas]

The only 3 I will keep...my trifecta, TOV FROSTED AP!!

[OTM Al]

No way in H-E- double hockey sticks am I kicking Frammento. If Zito has proven anything, he has shown an affinity for getting horses to run monsters in the Belmont. Especially bombs like Birdstone and Da Tara.

Add in Frammento's excellent breeding for the 12 panels, and he'll be on nearly all my exotics tickets.
Terrible reasoning. Birdstone was a Gr 1 winner on that very track. Da Tara was part of a miserable field, so once Big Brown was stopped, someone had to win. He was the front runner which gave him the advantage over the rest of the field. There are 3 Gr 1 winners in this field other than American Pharoah. So the latter case doesn't apply. I'd expect something closer to the former.

[RXB]

Zito has also finished second seven times in the Belmont Stakes and third three times.

[RXB]

Zito has also finished second seven times in the Belmont Stakes and third three times.

Correction: third twice.

[Rex Phinney]

What more proof do we need that triple crown fever causes common sense to go out the window.

Toss all the plodders that need horses to stop in front of them, yeah that's it. :confused:

Horses need ZERO speed in this race. They need a rhythm, a good ride, and breeding.

Speed and past form don't matter much.

[Hoofless_Wonder]

Not a complete toss, but I think Frosted has a bit too much love for my liking, and won't play him on top. Had a Derby futures bet on him, and think he's got some talent, but he doesn't love to win.

He'll probably be the most popular key underneath AP, so to have him back in the pack will mean $$$.....

[highnote]

AP is not my #1 toss, but I won't be betting him. I don't like betting underlays.

That said... I won't be surprised if he wins.

One recent article said there might be 19 runners in the Belmont Stakes. That will make it harder to win; and probably a lot of them don't belong. All those extra runners could cause a lot of negative events to occur that wouldn't happen in a 10 or 12 horse field.

How many horses did Secretariat beat in the Belmont Stakes -- about 5 or 6?

AP could have it much tougher than Big Red.

[Some_One]

AP is not my #1 toss, but I won't be betting him. I don't like betting underlays.

That said... I won't be surprised if he wins.

One recent article said there might be 19 runners in the Belmont Stakes. That will make it harder to win; and probably a lot of them don't belong. All those extra runners could cause a lot of negative events to occur that wouldn't happen in a 10 or 12 horse field.

How many horses did Secretariat beat in the Belmont Stakes -- about 5 or 6?

AP could have it much tougher than Big Red.

Who is reporting 19 for the Belmont?

[depalma113]

One recent article said there might be 19 runners in the Belmont Stakes.

The race is limited to 16 horses maximum.

[Redboard]

So AP will not be in your tris and supers? I have no doubt he'll finish in the money. Too much class for him not too.

Yea. Of the 12 that failed since Affirmed, four were second; four were third; two were fourth. The only two who finished out of the super were War Emblem and Big Brown. Of the 12 on this list, War Emblem, IMO was the least likely to do it, and was one of the few who went off over 1-1. He was such one-dimensional speed horse that there was no way the other Jockeys were going to let him wire the field for the third straight race; they would blow themselves up before they let that happen. AP is no War emblem. As far as Big Brown, well, nobody really knows what happen but I chalk it up to the trainer’s overuse of medication, until someone offers a better explanation.

[OTM Al]

Yea. Of the 12 that failed since Affirmed, four were second; four were third; two were fourth. The only two who finished out of the super were War Emblem and Big Brown. Of the 12 on this list, War Emblem, IMO was the least likely to do it, and was one of the few who went off over 1-1. He was such one-dimensional speed horse that there was no way the other Jockeys were going to let him wire the field for the third straight race; they would blow themselves up before they let that happen. AP is no War emblem. As far as Big Brown, well, nobody really knows what happen but I chalk it up to the trainer’s overuse of medication, until someone offers a better explanation.

Big Brown had chronically bad feet. They actually did an incredible job with him to get as far as he did.

[BlueChip@DRF]

What more proof do we need that triple crown fever causes common sense to go out the window.

Toss all the plodders that need horses to stop in front of them, yeah that's it. :confused:

Horses need ZERO speed in this race. They need a rhythm, a good ride, and breeding.

Speed and past form don't matter much.

This.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Zito has also finished second seven times in the Belmont Stakes and third three times.


Out of how many tries?

[RXB]

Out of how many tries?

24.

[horses4courses]

The Truth Or Else is out.
Harder to find an automatic toss now.

[Redboard]

The Truth Or Else is out.
Harder to find an automatic toss now.

I guess McPeek came to his senses.:He probably was reading this thread. :)

I think this makes things easier for AP. One less potential speedball to worry about.

[DeltaLover]

I think Mubtaahij, is going to be both the horse with the smaller chance to win the race and the worst bet as well, as from what I can see people tend to overestimate his last win.

[horses4courses]

I guess McPeek came to his senses.:He probably was reading this thread. :)

I think this makes things easier for AP. One less potential speedball to worry about.

He's injured - filling in ankle - minor but out for a while.

[highnote]

Who is reporting 19 for the Belmont?


I misread "The Bloodhorse" article. It said Pletcher will have as many as 19 runners for the June 5-6 Belmont Stakes Festival.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/92293/pletcher-seeking-third-belmont-stakes

[BlueChip@DRF]

Carpe Diem and The Truth Or Else are out. With 8 starters or less, it's looking good for American Pharoah, not to mention his workout this morning makes him look very prime.

[highnote]

19 starters? omg and you are a horse player? there will be 8 going in the gate smh :lol:

How many starters does the KY Derby have? Someone said 16 are allowed to run in the Belmont Stakes. So it doesn't seem odd to me to have 19 runners in a race -- especially on the biggest and maybe the widest track in the United States.

Apparently you missed my post where I said I misread the Bloodhorse article. Pletcher has 19 runners entered during the Belmont Stakes Festival weekend.

It's a big assumption on your part to claim that I claim I'm a horseplayer. :D

[Redboard]

I think Mubtaahij, is going to be both the horse with the smaller chance to win the race and the worst bet as well, as from what I can see people tend to overestimate his last win.

I'm with you there. I can't believe I bet on that dog in the derby.
These Euro bred's are certainly bred for distance, but they just aren't bred to run on dirt at age three. The 3YrOld races are just not as important over there, as they are here. Let alone the dirt factor.

[pandy]

No argument here with that toss. In addition to the points you made, he will only have had two weeks rest. If there one thing that history has shown, if you want your horse to run 12 panels for the first time in his life, make sure he's well rested! duh. McPeek must be daffy.
Some might think he might wire the field since the race is devoid of speed, sorry, that's not going to happen. Only DaTara has done that in the last 10 years in 2008. And the only reason he did it was because the jocks were so shocked that Big Brown collapsed, they over looked him. They kept looking around for BB.


Someone posted on another thread that Woody Stephens, who obviously was the best at preparing for this race, won it with a horse off a 5 day rest and another time he won it with a horse off a 7 day rest.

[Redboard]

Someone posted on another thread that Woody Stephens, who obviously was the best at preparing for this race, won it with a horse off a 5 day rest and another time he won it with a horse off a 7 day rest.

The last being 1986. I was referring to this century.

[pandy]

The last being 1986. I was referring to this century.


I honestly don't think you can eliminate a horse just because it raced two weeks ago, but that's my opinion. If the horse has the right style for this race and is fit and ready it can win. If Woody Stephens didn't rest them, then you don't need to rest them to win the Belmont. He was the master at winning this race.

[Redboard]

I honestly don't think you can eliminate a horse just because it raced two weeks ago, but that's my opinion. If the horse has the right style for this race and is fit and ready it can win. If Woody Stephens didn't rest them, then you don't need to rest them to win the Belmont. He was the master at winning this race.

But nobody has won it with less than three weeks rest in this century, most had five weeks rest. why don't you do a little research and see how those with less than three weeks rest faired in the Belmont. I wouldn't think very well.

I should have said "... recent history shows...."

[pandy]

But nobody has won it with less than three weeks rest in this century, most had five weeks rest. why don't you do a little research and see how those with less than three weeks rest faired in the Belmont. I wouldn't think very well.

I should have said "... recent history shows...."

Well, yeah, modern day trainers do things differently. But it's a moot point, isn't it? All of the horses in this year's race have at least 3 weeks rest.

[magwell]

I'm tossing everybody except AP and say we have a TC winner finally, cant see anybody else TOV probably 2nd again so rest all are running for 3rd or 4th money, being this is Tuesday its subject to change later in the week .....:cool:

[EMD4ME]

If the question pertains to the win spot, that is easy. The favorite. If you'd like to know why, see the yeah or nay thread.

[boys at tosconova]

one of the nags might get 3rd. but they're pretty awful. all it will take is material and/or frosted to be empty...or AP being tired....but ap/material should be comfortably ahead throughout..can't really envision anyone out closing frosted behind him as well. the race is going to go down like the derby..and we'll see if AP quits and material is good enough to beat him

materiality is clearly the main threat to beat AP.

[gracwalk]

I don't know a lot about horseracing but all horses on race day have an opportunity to win the Belmont.

[BlueChip@DRF]

I don't know a lot about horseracing but all horses on race day have an opportunity to win the Belmont.

True. But only one will have a shot at the crown.

[gracwalk]

True only one horse AP, his shot at the TC, I don't want to get my hopes up only to be disappointed again.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Are you referring to AP, as the only horse that has a shot to win?

The only one with a shot at the crown since he is the only one to fulfill the prerequisites of obtaining the title of Triple Crown winner. If another wins, he will just be the winner and there won't be a coronation.

[Redboard]

Since I already tossed Tale of Verve, I’m going to give my opinion of the other two closers, Frammento & Keen Ice. The book on the Belmont is(according to many experts) to immediately toss the deep closers. The theory being is that by the time they make the turn, they’re so tired that they have no gas left in the tank to make their run.

In the last ten years, here where the top three finishers(from winner to third) were after 1 mile:

2014: 3rd, 1st, 5th, of 11
2013: 3rd, 1st, 9th of 14
2012: 3rd, 1st, 6th, of 11
2011: 2nd, 3rd, 7th, of 12
2010: 5th, 6th, 1st, of 12
2009: 9th(Summer Bird, 7 lengths back), 1st, 8th, of 10
2008: 1st, 5th, 4th, of 9
2007: 5th (Rags to Riches, 10 lengths back), 4th, 6th, of 7
2006: 7th(Jazil, 4 lengths back), 3rd, 6th, of 12
2005: 8th (Afleet Alex, 8 lengths back), 9th, 11th, of 11

From this short list, it appears that it’s not impossible to pass half the field in the last two panels, but you have to be a special horse to do it, with the exception of maybe, Jazil, who benefited from a hot pace (Bob & John) .


Frammento & Keen Ice are typical deep closers that like to save ground, then make one run. However, that run hasn’t got either of them much. Some think that Frammento could do what Birdstone did in 2004, since they have the same trainer, Nick Zito. But when you compare their records before the Belmont, there’s no comparison. Before the Belmont, Birdstone had four lifetime starts, with two wins, one G1 win in the Champagne, at Belmont. Frammento has had eight lifetime starts(none at Belmont) and his only win is his maiden.

Keen Ice has a record very similar to Frammento, one win, his maiden, a lot of “saving ground and getting up” at the end of the race passing tired horses. Unlike Frammento, His trainer has zero Belmont wins.

Conclusion: Frammento & Keen Ice join Tale of Verve on my toss pile.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Conclusion: Frammento & Keen Ice join Tale of Verve on my toss pile.

How dare you toss Frammento Redboard! :p

I certainly get why most will, but as I've stated earlier I'll be including.

Great stuff here in your post, and I think most people get too carried away with the "closers don't win the Belmont" stance. (Much less hit the board and mess up everybody's exotics. )

Sure they do. They have, and always will just like any other race over a mile. It just depends upon the individual race itself, and most importantly, the horse.

Bluechip also made a great point about horses that are always coming forward that do well in the Belmont. They may not be making up much ground in some of their races, but the further they go, the more ground they make up, and in a plodding race of 12Fs they'll be closer to the lead than normal.

The obvious key is finding that horse with the necessary amount of stamina and enough speed to carry them through the first 10 panels to be in reasonable enough position to get it done.

[pandy]

Good points about horses that rally but fall short at shorter distances...

I agree, a one paced horse that generally gets there way too late could roll right by the same type of horses in a mile and a half race. We saw that with the Breeders Cup Marathon that they ran a few years. The best horse didn't usually win the race, it was some horse that loved the longer distance because it had that one paced energy saving type of style. A grinder.

[BlueChip@DRF]

That's it - a grinder!

[PaceAdvantage]

I don't think you can toss anyone. It's been that kind of race lately.

But, if you held a gun to my head...Tale of Verve would be my easiest toss. Lightning ain't gonna strike twice, and there are too many others in this race kind of like him, but better.

[CosmicWon]

Frammento. Gorgeous animal, but he's not only slow overall, he lacks any brilliance to be in it early. He'll lollygag at the back with a running line like 8-8-7-8-8.

Why he gets a free pass for running where he doesn't belong yet Mr. Z was ridiculed for his starts seems pretty unfair to the one who was at least G1 placed.

Madefromlucky my next toss. Please bet him if you like him, but I've seen this colt in person since his first start as well as in Louisville before he declared from Derby and he's just not at this level yet. He's a bit of a mental meatball.

I'm 8-5-6-7 cold. Clear delineation of talent in here and Materiality has more to give imho.