Beat the Chalk at 2-1 or less...ie...throw-outs from win spot

[sammy the sage]

going to run this thread for a few sat.'s...to see how bad a handicapper I am...at picking low prices NOT to run...didn't say I could pick a winner of said races...

5/30/15...two today don't like...

Churchill 8th...Work All Week #7...why...don't think this race is intended target...think it's work-out...could be wrong...

Santa Anita 8th...Moreno #7...why....gotta trust my eyes...will see if I need glass's or need to quit this game...reason's here in this thread...

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=121991&page=2&pp=15&highlight=moreno

[ReplayRandall]

going to run this thread for a few sat.'s...to see how bad a handicapper I am...at picking low prices NOT to run...didn't say I could pick a winner of said races...

5/30/15...two today don't like...

Churchill 8th...Work All Week #7...why...don't think this race is intended target...think it's work-out...could be wrong...

Santa Anita 8th...Moreno #7...why....gotta trust my eyes...will see if I need glass's or need to quit this game...reason's here in this thread...

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=121991&page=2&pp=15&highlight=moreno
Sammy, hope I don't mush you here, but I'm betting aggressively against both horses.....

[sammy the sage]

Sammy, hope I don't mush you here, but I'm betting aggressively against both horses.....

no mush & no problem...hope ya made out well... :ThmbUp:

[ReplayRandall]

no mush & no problem...hope ya made out well... :ThmbUp:
It's all good, hope the same for you...

[sammy the sage]

yes it was good...last week...this week 6/6/15...got nothing certain on...

the whole point is to be able to throw out the huge chalk at a better than 67% rate...after all it's that....just betting against blindly!!!

Sure there are couple to bet against this week...but not wasting much bankroll trying to beat...and not touting them to lose either...B.O.L. all...

til next time..............

ps...anybody want to contribute...as long as there's a legit reason behind...feel free! :ThmbUp:

ps.ps...internet rumor...believe at OWN risk....a virus going thru Pletcher Barn in NY...whose affected and whose not...anybody's guess...

[sammy the sage]

6/13...Churchill downs...."Lea" the strong favorite...they'll be a strong 2nd & 3rd choice as well...but "Lea" is the throw-out for on top...not only coming back from Dubai...but also w/a history of problems...good enough to take stand against...

[sammy the sage]

6/13...at Santa Anita...an even crazier throw-out for the win spot..."Beholder".....just a feeling...don't like the race pattern nor the being treated w/kid gloves treatment....she should be running for MUCH more money in this spot...she was scratched awhile back...gambling as they say!

[Capper Al]

yes it was good...last week...this week 6/6/15...got nothing certain on...

the whole point is to be able to throw out the huge chalk at a better than 67% rate...after all it's that....just betting against blindly!!!

Sure there are couple to bet against this week...but not wasting much bankroll trying to beat...and not touting them to lose either...B.O.L. all...

til next time..............

ps...anybody want to contribute...as long as there's a legit reason behind...feel free! :ThmbUp:

ps.ps...internet rumor...believe at OWN risk....a virus going thru Pletcher Barn in NY...whose affected and whose not...anybody's guess...

Admirable goal at 67%. Good luck.

[Prytanis]

Belmont 6/13
Race #3. I'm tossing #2 Hereditary @6/5 in a five horse field!

[lamboguy]

6/13...at Santa Anita...an even crazier throw-out for the win spot..."Beholder".....just a feeling...don't like the race pattern nor the being treated w/kid gloves treatment....she should be running for MUCH more money in this spot...she was scratched awhile back...gambling as they say!
she is training real solid, bad throwout

[sammy the sage]

she is training real solid, bad throwout

When Lambo speaks/writes....LISTEN....he has VERY good connections...and inside knowledge is better than form reading anytime!

record 3-1...

[sammy the sage]

Belmont 6/13
Race #3. I'm tossing #2 Hereditary @6/5 in a five horse field!

good call...reasons why next time please...

[lamboguy]

Santa Anita race 9------i will try to beat the #3. the race he came out of wasn't that great even though it was msw and he hasn't trained that great since the race

[ReplayRandall]

Santa Anita race 9------i will try to beat the #3. the race he came out of wasn't that great even though it was msw and he hasn't trained that great since the race
Agree....use the #2- Restrike at 6-1 and the #8- Da Fastest One at 15-1 M/L......Like anyone pays attention or cares what I play.. :cool:

[ultracapper]

Betting aggressively against Miller in the 4th at SA on Sunday 6/14

[ReplayRandall]

Betting aggressively against Miller in the 4th at SA on Sunday 6/14
As Rick Perry would say.....Ooops..... :)

[ultracapper]

Damn it!! I had the right "other one" also.

[ultracapper]

You think I'd just do a saver exacta? Hell no, that would be too easy. Did you see what that exacta pay? I really shouldn't care, but you know how it is.

[ultracapper]

HA!! It paid $5.10. Glad I just took my lumps.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

R8 Santa Anita.

:8: Sam's Sister will be the chalk at somewhere from 3/5 to 6/5. She had a monster summer/fall/winter campaign as she won 5 of her first 6 races including the G1 La Brea and G2 Santa Monica at this very track. She ran into some tougher competition in her last two while getting some rest in between and heading into this one. She is unbeaten at Santa Anita (3 for 3) and is 2 for 2 at the distance.

A lighter field, supposedly, won't be a breather as there is oodles of speed on tap in here with the :2::5::6::9::11: all possessing front runner tendencies and sharpness from the gate. That should open it up for someone to come off the pace with Sam's Sister being the one to beat and could well encounter traffic problems.

I'll look for the :4: Living The Life and/or the :7: Harlington's Rose to get the job done today, and maybe even keep Sam's Sister out of the Exacta along with the :5: Wasted Talent.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

R8 Santa Anita.

:8: Sam's Sister will be the chalk at somewhere from 3/5 to 6/5. She had a monster summer/fall/winter campaign as she won 5 of her first 6 races including the G1 La Brea and G2 Santa Monica at this very track. She ran into some tougher competition in her last two while getting some rest in between and heading into this one. She is unbeaten at Santa Anita (3 for 3) and is 2 for 2 at the distance.

A lighter field, supposedly, won't be a breather as there is oodles of speed on tap in here with the :2::5::6::9::11: all possessing front runner tendencies and sharpness from the gate. That should open it up for someone to come off the pace with Sam's Sister being the one to beat and could well encounter traffic problems.

I'll look for the :4: Living The Life and/or the :7: Harlington's Rose to get the job done today, and maybe even keep Sam's Sister out of the Exacta along with the :5: Wasted Talent.

Welp, we got the :8: to finish 3rd, but I certainly couldn't see the :2: winning this thing in gate to wire fashion at a bomb of a price at 43/1. :eek: A near $90 winner and a $560 Exacta. I guess you can't be immune to the "All" button sometimes. :D

[sammy the sage]

R8 Santa Anita.

:8: Sam's Sister will be the chalk at somewhere from 3/5 to 6/5. She had a monster summer/fall/winter campaign as she won 5 of her first 6 races including the G1 La Brea and G2 Santa Monica at this very track. She ran into some tougher competition in her last two while getting some rest in between and heading into this one. She is unbeaten at Santa Anita (3 for 3) and is 2 for 2 at the distance.

A lighter field, supposedly, won't be a breather as there is oodles of speed on tap in here with the :2::5::6::9::11: all possessing front runner tendencies and sharpness from the gate. That should open it up for someone to come off the pace with Sam's Sister being the one to beat and could well encounter traffic problems.

I'll look for the :4: Living The Life and/or the :7: Harlington's Rose to get the job done today, and maybe even keep Sam's Sister out of the Exacta along with the :5: Wasted Talent.

nice write & call on the big fav. NOT winning!...

[sammy the sage]

6/27/15 Santa Anita

7th race Triple Bend...Masochistic...don't like the work-out pattern change...and that last work...wow...still a weak grade 1.....maybe he get's it done...betting against tho...b.o.l. all...

[sammy the sage]

Belmont the Dwyer...Texas Red should get beat today...thinking this is a prep for the Dandy/Travers...especially off a problem...and on a rolled sealed track or sloppy...coming from dead last at this distance will be tough against this bunch....some other's improving as well....

current record 3-2...big stakes only...

[pandy]

Samraat is a nice horse but off the long layoff in the 4th at Belmont today, he seems vulnerable, especially considering that he had screws put in him since his last race.

[lamboguy]

Bel 1-4, 8-2

Del 1-4, 5-7

Mth 2-3

Prx 1-2

Wdb 9-2

[sammy the sage]

Bel 1-4, 8-2

Del 1-4, 5-7

Mth 2-3

Prx 1-2

Wdb 9-2

think I'll start a thread w/that...my bet would be Tonalist today...w/the upcoming weather will be even tougher...

the Key to betting chalk in my book is to create value by betting w/another horse...that's YOUR job...but I try to get 6/1 at least w/either doubles or exactas or pik3/4's...

[sammy the sage]

Great call Pandy....thanks for the reasoning as well....

record now for o.p....4-2...in big stakes...

[pandy]

Thanks. I read about the injury and operation he had in the Daily Racing Form yesterday.

[sammy the sage]

7/5/15...Gulfstream smile sprint 250k...9/5 shot Work All Week....ain't coming down to fla. at 90 deg.'s + humidity for feel like temp of 105+....unless much the best...don't think so...might not even hit the board...would watch post parade and make a call...

[sammy the sage]

5-2 now...although will have to admit today's pick/reasoning w/climate...might not have been the best of reasons...still something one must consider infrequently as it may be...

[Lemon Drop Husker]

7/9/15: Belmont R8

:8: Havana getting all the early tote action getting bet down to 2/1 with the :9: Classy Class the ML favorite right there at 3/1. In an OC $62.5n2x, I see both looking ahead to bigger and better while trying to land a win in this one and advance.

The 7F distance is what really gets me interested here. While both ran this distance in their last out, both finished well back in 11th and 4th respectively at this track. I'm sure one or both will rebound with a much more solid effort against less competition, but a win certainly isn't guaranteed.

The :3: Doc Almon is running as well as he ever has coming in off of 2 victories at Monmouth and Parx. They have tried him at Belmont before 3 times with a lone 2nd, so he can run decently enough here while getting Jacobson in the barn and Cornelio on the mount.

However, I'll be leaning elsewhere with the :6: Warrior's Crown. His last on Belmont Stakes day wasn't that bad against a pretty solid field. He came out of it with some solid works,a nd another move forward today could see him in the winner's circle at a nice 5-6/1 price.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

7/9/15: Belmont R8

:8: Havana getting all the early tote action getting bet down to 2/1 with the :9: Classy Class the ML favorite right there at 3/1. In an OC $62.5n2x, I see both looking ahead to bigger and better while trying to land a win in this one and advance.

The 7F distance is what really gets me interested here. While both ran this distance in their last out, both finished well back in 11th and 4th respectively at this track. I'm sure one or both will rebound with a much more solid effort against less competition, but a win certainly isn't guaranteed.

The :3: Doc Almon is running as well as he ever has coming in off of 2 victories at Monmouth and Parx. They have tried him at Belmont before 3 times with a lone 2nd, so he can run decently enough here while getting Jacobson in the barn and Cornelio on the mount.

However, I'll be leaning elsewhere with the :6: Warrior's Crown. His last on Belmont Stakes day wasn't that bad against a pretty solid field. He came out of it with some solid works,a nd another move forward today could see him in the winner's circle at a nice 5-6/1 price.

Swing and a miss. :9: Classy Class with a solid, professional, and easy win as he coasts home to a 1+ length victory over a late running :3: Doc Almon. :6: was an also ran along with the :8: Havana in which CC ran them off their feet and could have won by 5 or more if need be.

[sammy the sage]

8/8/15

1st race at Saratoga...#6....Mail...trainer's leading jock bails...so will I...

6th also 'toga'....#4...Ocean Knight...whilst the best here...don't think this race is the intended target...more like a good work-out...might get paid...might not is my stance....thinking NEXT is the time to bet this one...

[sammy the sage]

correct on 1...scratch on the other...record now...6-2...

[sammy the sage]

8/12...Delmar stakes 7th race...#7 Pretty N Cool...a Baffert throw-out from the win spot......which is tough to do...still...last 2 works are NOT Baffert like....

[sammy the sage]

ouch...wrong on this one...record now 6-3...average...

[sammy the sage]

5th...Belmont...Honor Code #5...3/5...yes last was spectacular...yes he's won on mud before....BUTTTTT.......this horse has been ouchy and never put 3 good ones in a row++++today's race is NOT the target....

[pandy]

I hope you're right, I took a swing against Honor Code today.

[sammy the sage]

Keeneland 6th..#3..Judy the Beauty..at 6/5...whilst bred for slop...hasn't done it yet+++many other's here also well bred for it++++her last 2...no excuses...+++this race is NOT her target... if she wins...I lose...

[sammy the sage]

record 8-3

[sammy the sage]

Keenland BC sat...notice didn't attempt to beat the "Map" on Fri...BUT...here goes...nor will I try to beat songbird...sat.

10th..Golden Horn..best horse..yes..but no Lasix lowers chances here..plus travel should catch up at some point..plus just might be a bit of race riding going on here..

11th..AP...not the fastest horse in the race...will get the best trip...which worries me...and they might seal and roll the track...which worries me...still think he gets beat tho...

[sammy the sage]

Final official record for late 2015 posted...9-4...or 70%...2/1 or less didn't win...had a few more for a redboard...not posted...such as private zones last...ect...not counted since not posted...

again the premise... to find horses to bet against...and then of course...find the right ones to bet on...I'll leave that part up to you ;)

2016...got 2 today...

Tepin in Tampa...7/5 ML...think this is just a work-out...gut call...why else would Lexie Lou be in the same race...bigger plans for both in the future...

Calculator in S.A....again bigger plans going longer...trainer has publically stated NOT fully cranked for this...off surgery for cracked ankle...have to let a 4/5 or lower beat me here...

[pandy]

I didn't look over the Calculator race that carefully, but despite the time off due to injury, he may still be below even money and that is a very bad bet, in my opinion.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Love your call on Tepin. She has been an ATM machine for me dating back to her runner-up in the G2 San Clemente. She rolls in off of back-to-back career races, so there is little doubt she won't be fully cranked and they are likely just looking to get her feet under her in 2016. :7: Lexie Lou is interesting, but the :1: Lovely Loyree has me interested.

Calculator is a must bet against. Going with the newbie :7: Fusaichi Samurai. This might be a pretty damn good horse.

[ultracapper]

Love your call on Tepin. She has been an ATM machine for me dating back to her runner-up in the G2 San Clemente. She rolls in off of back-to-back career races, so there is little doubt she won't be fully cranked and they are likely just looking to get her feet under her in 2016. :7: Lexie Lou is interesting, but the :1: Lovely Loyree has me interested.

Calculator is a must bet against. Going with the newbie :7: Fusaichi Samurai. This might be a pretty damn good horse.

Absolutely is. 2yo race record off a 13 month layoff. That's screaming bet against to me.

I'll take a couple buck stab on J Serino.

[ultracapper]

Who in that field that Calculator beat in January 2015 would scare you in this field?

[ultracapper]

We-e-e-lllll. Quite a move he made on the turn. Quite a fight he put up in the lane.

[sammy the sage]

well that went well...NOT...0-2 for today...2016...

a couple of comments...Lexie was STRANGLED today...if I'm the owner...Casse loses that horse...and my business...Tepin still MUCH the best...and I was wrong...it happens...

Calculator made huge move on the turn and was very game in the lane...BUT....don't know if he'll go that much farther or not...time will tell...perhaps might get a chance to throw away more money against...

[sammy the sage]

4/16/16...0-2 posted 2016...

keenland 9th...against 9/5 chalk...swipe...KD is NOT riding for brother/trainer...who has very poor 1st off lay-off record....KD...is riding others on the card....tells me all I need to know....

Keenland 10th...against 4/5 tepin...what..I must be crazy...aaahhhh...but the last horse to nail her is in today...with the right jock and a good weight break...we'll see....

Oaklawn 11th...against 2/1Cupid...not THAT cushy trip today...w/weight swings, pace swing, and lane change swing...think there at least 3 here that can beat him....

[sammy the sage]

2 more for today...100k stakes...both 2/1 chalk....at LARC...

poor K Den...hopefully he's at Kee today riding Ward's charges...these seem to be ill advised placements...

5th...wild dude....this race a bit short for him...

7th...Soi Phet...once on my watch list...has gotten some VERY strange rides over THE years...not from just one jock either....seems like he's lost a step to me...could be wrong...

[sammy the sage]

4 outta 5 today...good ole KD is back to usual self...look at the ride in the 5th sometime...good for me...

will not bet against Tepin again...what an impressive horse she's turned into...

all the other reasoning ended up being spot on....

record now posted stakes beat the short chalk for 2016...4-3...

til next time....

[sammy the sage]

4/30...couple of 100k races today w/the same angle....long lay-offs w/a trainer whose known to USE A RACE to get ready...not fully cranked...interesting spots as well....

Both 2/1 chalk and will probably be lower???

so betting against both on the win end...

8th...Belmont #5 green mask

7th...Gulfstream #6 middleburg

[sammy the sage]

worked like a charm...don't happen too much in horse racing....6-3...beat the chalk...til next time....

[sammy the sage]

oaks day 5/6

interesting card...several low chalks to look at...the one I'll be betting against the win is.....

10th #10 Catch a Glimpse 2/1ML...might be lower...toughest field by far faced yet...and think a bit over rated...several here could improve dramatically....think this one has peaked...we'll see....B.O.L. all...

[sammy the sage]

well...she ran well...take my lumps and move on...6-4...

[sammy the sage]

ah yes...derby day...notice I didn't pick against THE Tepin...female version of Wise Dan...just WOW, once again...

Have to be against Nyguist here at 2/1...4th or 5th fastest on the figs...no brainer....get beat...get beat...

2nd bet against today...Belmont race 11...Sea Calisi...at 4/5 or less...they brought 'em stateside to avoid SOFT turf....guess what they get today....plus...SOMETIMES Mr. Brown has them use 1st graded stakes back as strictly a warm-up...despite the gaudy #'s off the lay-off...thinking the target is a Belmont stakes day race...

[sammy the sage]

11th Churchill 2 mins. to go...big blue kitten 2/1...against....think it's a work-out....and too short a race for him normally...we'll see...

[sammy the sage]

not a good day for moi....chalk was tough...7-6....heck...blind betting against the fav.'s better than that record currently....

[sammy the sage]

today 5/20/16....pimlico...8th...against...the 10yr. old hard trying Ben's Cat 9/5 ML...although the pace set-up is ideal for him...think he's lost a step...also think he's much better at 5.5 f than the 5f race today...b.o.l. all..

[powerrun]

today 5/20/16....pimlico...8th...against...the 10yr. old hard trying Ben's Cat 9/5 ML...although the pace set-up is ideal for him...think he's lost a step...also think he's much better at 5.5 f than the 5f race today...b.o.l. all..

I always appreciate your contributions, yet to pick against Ben's Cat took some you know what! The old champ still has it! :)

[pandy]

What a horse Ben's Cat is. When Trevor steered him to a clear lane he went to the whip and Ben's Cat just took off. Beautiful. Good to see King Leatherbury doing well, great trainer.

[sammy the sage]

yep...took it in the chops today...BC was B.A. in every way....like the bossman here says tho...don't have to be right much to be ahead...

[powerrun]

yep...took it in the chops today...BC was B.A. in every way....like the bossman here says tho...don't have to be right much to be ahead...

Well said, Sammy. I made my blunder of the day...had my pick 4 ready to go with Ben's Cat as my single. I decided to simply watch the Cat run and pulled back the bet for who knows why. Anyway, I would have won the pick 4. Oh well. At least I saw a horse for the ages win! And to make the day end well, I did well on my other bets!

[sammy the sage]

just have to do it...13th race pimlico...9/5 shot Nyquist...

He's gonna take mud in the face...and I believe race ridden by other jocks and pinned to the rail...both are firsts for this horse...have too take a stand against here...

[sammy the sage]

was right while being wrong about how at the same time...8-7 the record now...

[sammy the sage]

7/9/16....lot's of stakes action....and some "iffy" chalk in my book....at 2/1 or less m/l...

Belmont.
6th...#9 Coppa...could be any kind...will bet against here...Jock's lone mount...flying in...think will get hooked by inside horse...

10th..#12..Catch a glimpse...lone speed at a distance always dangerous...however several here have been very close at shorter...now in their wheelhouse+++Euro's are here W/the drug L...let 'em beat me at the expected price...

11th...#2..private zone...long lay-off...always let these type beat me if they can

Arlington

8th...#11...J.R. Holiday...outside...plenty here close enough...if was that good...would be in a bigger money race...

[Lemon Drop Husker]

I've missed this thread.

Thanks for bringing it back STS. :ThmbUp:

[sammy the sage]

I've missed this thread.

Thanks for bringing it back STS. :ThmbUp:

Thanks for the thoughts....took a bit a of break...B.O.L. all today...

[sammy the sage]

2-2 on the call-out's...the 2 that won...very nice horses...indeed...10-9 now...not all that great...

several coulda/woulda/shoulda called out today...but didn't...so don't count...but Pizza Man, Firing Line, Economic model....all...didn't run that good...

If one knew in advance...that's a BIG step...

Thinking a few knew today that PZ wouldn't fire...those pay-offs were light...

Insider's game...and I'm trying to read between the lines...last year was pretty good...this year...not so much...

always another race tho... :bang: :eek:

[sammy the sage]

7/23...not time for the reasons...but here's the ones I'm betting against winning today...

Saratoga
7th..Inordinate 9/5 ml #2
9th..My Man Sam 4/5 ml #4...hhhmmmm betting against my namesake in a short field...

Monmouth
9th..Noble Bird 2/1 #3

Delmar
9th..Cal. Chrome 4/5 ml #6...maybe I will, maybe I won't...that's trainer Sherman's words...

[sammy the sage]

chrome by a neck...will be better next time...still 3-1 getting rid of chalk...not bad at short prices...over-all for 2016 now 13-10 on posted spots...

till next time

[sammy the sage]

If you've followed along over last years very good year and this year's blah so far...you will have noticed that I've pretty much stuck to the bigger paying races...

In all honesty...the cheaper races....big chalk is more suspect at times...at least in my book...many here will disagree...which is ok...I like their money!!!

am thinking about posting on 7/28...ie....thurs...strictly "Toga"....a chalk or two I don't like....any interest out there?

Yes...this is an ego stroke...since I only play on BIG days...still...always good to try and keep a mind sharp....and perhaps somebody else can score...

Besides...as I stated....this year blah....need to pad my stats.... ;) :lol: :D

[sammy the sage]

Thurs...9th race....Toga....#5 Weekend Hideaway 2/1 ML....3 OTHER early speedballs in here....sets up pace wise for something off....

[PhantomOnTour]

Sar Race 3 today.
Looking to beat the chalk #8 Benevolence but he doesn't meet the 2-1 odds criteria, at least not yet.
Price is 5-2 with 2 MTP

[PhantomOnTour]

Sar Race 3 today.
Looking to beat the chalk #8 Benevolence but he doesn't meet the 2-1 odds criteria, at least not yet.
Price is 5-2 with 2 MTP
Wound up the co-favorite at 5-2 and won it :ThmbDown:

[sammy the sage]

14-10 against....which brings us to Fri. 8/5...

7th race...#8 money multiplier...8/5 ML....why is this horse here...2nd in back to back G 1's...plenty of bigger money turf races around this time frame and running here?....SMELLS.....am against...

[sammy the sage]

what STINKS was my pick against here...tend to forget RICH clients don't care about the money...just a win...which they got...record now 14-11...

[sammy the sage]

8/7 at Toga

7th race...oops...going against Mr. Browns gaudy #'s in all categories here...#5 Kerjillion....one race in 2 years...then another lay-off...well...if it beats me it beats me...

9th race...the pletcher #2 Far From Over...similar to one above...his m.o. is 4 to 5 weeks...not 7...typically horses run big 1st time...which this one did...now what...we'll see...will be playing against...

[pandy]

Both of these horses look like tough favorites to me. Kerjillion has 10 works since last and it's his second start off a long layoff for a red hot barn. Caton just said that she heard that Far From Above has been training strongly. There are a lot of bad favorites that aren't good race horses, I think those are the ones worth betting against.

[sammy the sage]

Both of these horses look like tough favorites to me. Kerjillion has 10 works since last and it's his second start off a long layoff for a red hot barn. Caton just said that she heard that Far From Above has been training strongly. There are a lot of bad favorites that aren't good race horses, I think those are the ones worth betting against.

thanks for the heads up...it is a guessing game sometimes...especially if you're not connected....used to have reliable intel at times...lately....not so much...will tread lightly...

[pandy]

thanks for the heads up...it is a guessing game sometimes...especially if you're not connected....used to have reliable intel at times...lately....not so much...will tread lightly...


I like your idea of betting against these long layoff horses, but the best time to bet against Kerjillion was last start. Saratoga is different, too, because these top barns aren't wasting anything, they need to win a bunch of races to appease their rich owners. Everything is a go.

[sammy the sage]

strange lay-offs...regardless of trainer are usually a red flag...2-0 today...16-11 now...

[pandy]

strange lay-offs...regardless of trainer are usually a red flag...2-0 today...16-11 now...


Good job!

[sammy the sage]

8/8....TOGA again...against another HOT trainer today....long lay-off AND strange work-out pattern....gaps...many of them...

8th...#6 Ocean Knight...not only above factors...think today is just a work-out...either stakes or claiming next time out...just guessing...will gamble against today....

[sammy the sage]

8/8....TOGA again...against another HOT trainer today....long lay-off AND strange work-out pattern....gaps...many of them...

8th...#6 Ocean Knight...not only above factors...think today is just a work-out...either stakes or claiming next time out...just guessing...will gamble against today....

although was correct...not counting...was not close to odds-on...almost 3rd choice in this race....

[sammy the sage]

8/20/16...Saratoga 8th...will be against super trainer Brown entry with super jock I.Ortiz...#10 Ava's Kitten...9/5 ML....unless there's a late announcement of adding blinks...

Don't like lay-off, with jockey switch...JC had the choice am thinking...w/cut-back for this horse....actually....cut-backs one my FAVORITE betting angles...but not here...

[sammy the sage]

took my lumps...16-12 now...horse & jock both ran hard to get the nose in front...

as a side note...thought Mr. Brown's with the blinkers in the 11th was a much better short price play...wrong...got it backwards....happens...

that's what makes it so challenging...trying to pick against SHORT prices...notice...did not try to beat songbird or chrome today...both were STELLAR....

[sammy the sage]

8/22..mon. at the spa...feature race...8/5 ML...4/5 probable at the bell...#6 Eskenformoney...against the Pletcher here...

Thinking last took a little starch out of her...coming back a bit quick & long...bounce candidate...if you believe in that...IMHO....I think it has more merit w/fillies...which is the case here...wouldn't surprise if she didn't even hit the board in a 6 horse field...

[sammy the sage]

8/22..mon. at the spa...feature race...8/5 ML...4/5 probable at the bell...#6 Eskenformoney...against the Pletcher here...

Thinking last took a little starch out of her...coming back a bit quick & long...bounce candidate...if you believe in that...IMHO....I think it has more merit w/fillies...which is the case here...wouldn't surprise if she didn't even hit the board in a 6 horse field...

Not bad for a one eyed fat man....now on to "Toga" Travers day....and race #6....Curalina....#2....9/5 ML...> as above...same trainer...mostly same consistent results over the years....now mind you...this race is shorter...so she might hit the board...wouldn't surprise me either way...will cost me money if she wins....which I'm against...

ps...a bit of a redboard...not always against Pletcher big chalk....had the one today in the feature...ie...fri...but she HAD proper spacing for his program...that's the key...

[sammy the sage]

adding another one for Traver's day...12th....#3 Lady Eli...had bad hoof condition...over it now....works look great...BBBuuuuttttt....her competition has improved....has she???....not going to take 1/1 or less to find out....esp. after a year off...

current record...prior to today's against the chalk...17-12...

[EMD4ME]

adding another one for Traver's day...12th....#3 Lady Eli...had bad hoof condition...over it now....works look great...BBBuuuuttttt....her competition has improved....has she???....not going to take 1/1 or less to find out....esp. after a year off...

current record...prior to today's against the chalk...17-12...


YOU WERE CORRECT, HOPE you cashed pal !

[sammy the sage]

yes...coulda done better...can't we all...thanks for the thoughts...

19-12 now...

[sammy the sage]

Toga...today 9/3..5th...#2 Camelot Kitten 9/5 ML....Mr. Brown was wondering whether to run him here or rest him...per Drf article...when a trainer is wishy washy...usually bad news...besides there are a couple in here on paper just as fast or faster...CS does like to win tho...still...will play against that today...if he goes....

[EMD4ME]

Toga...today 9/3..5th...#2 Camelot Kitten 9/5 ML....Mr. Brown was wondering whether to run him here or rest him...per Drf article...when a trainer is wishy washy...usually bad news...besides there are a couple in here on paper just as fast or faster...CS does like to win tho...still...will play against that today...if he goes....

I can see him losing. Will be near last today. Will need a trip. Unlike last where outside post and pace was not such a deterrent. Was able to work out a 2nd over trip and grind up. Today might be inside near back till the 1/4 and will need to show massive acceleration to win. (Unless there is race flow/collapse)

[pandy]

I picked Strike Midnight in the 5th at Saratoga.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

I picked Strike Midnight in the 5th at Saratoga.

Going with either

:3: Call Provision or
:7: Copingaway

if I play the race. Not a huge believer in Camelot Kitten either.

[no breathalyzer]

I picked Strike Midnight in the 5th at Saratoga.

me too..

[sammy the sage]

20-12 now...Labor Day at the Spa...

7th...Vandalize 8/5 ML....my 1st comment is WHERE's Johnny???...2nd is...this NOT a normal Pletcher drop....ie...look in the 5th for his typical modus operandi...just smells...will be against today...

If there is a program change and JV is up...then will change to a no play...

[sammy the sage]

21-12 now...Thurs...9/8/16 at venerable Kentucky Downs

in the 4th...20k claimers...looks like CHAOS race...w/a 2/1ML...Bissectrisa...will be against trainer Sharp here....

if the crowd follows the ML makers take off the huge fig ran 2 back...just don't see an older cheap mare running back to that...plus several here are freshened up...surface change...and Jock upgrades...will be against the Fav. here...

[sammy the sage]

22-12...now...Super Derby at La. Downs...11th race...will be against #2 Mo Tom 7/5 ML probably 4/5 start...strictly a handicapping pace play here...if he can go 3/4 wide and circle this field too...more power to him and I'll lose...don't think so tho...

[sammy the sage]

was not the same horse...didn't even hit the tri...23-12 now...he needs LESS Tom....ie...a break...

Sun...back to the dueling grounds....ie...Kentucky downs....9th...9/5 ML Airoforce..#10..this horse has NOT improved from last .year...something not quite right or he is what he's gonna be...maybe too much too soon...anyways...life & death to win the last one...this field MUCH tougher....and distance MORE demanding....he keeps getting bet & will get bet here....but NOT by me...am against here....

[ReplayRandall]

Sammy, I got to give you props for being on fire lately. Since going 10-9 at one point, you've now gone 13-3 since then, for an overall 23-12. Hopefully I haven't "mushed" you with this post.....Continued Good Luck..:cool:

[sammy the sage]

Sammy, I got to give you props for being on fire lately. Since going 10-9 at one point, you've now gone 13-3 since then, for an overall 23-12. Hopefully I haven't "mushed" you with this post.....Continued Good Luck..:cool:

thanks for that...not nearly as easy as seems...we all know that typical favorites win at 33 to 37 % depending on track....but TRUE ODDS on favs win at a MUCH higher % ...especially in small fields....there are charts and stats floating around...

betting against them takes...????...still that's where the TRUE money is...do I hit every time I'm right...nope...

But let's say you like a 6/1....and in field w/big chalk...it's now 8 or 10 to 1...I only gotta be right about the winner less than 20 % to smell like roses...or you can dutch or SPREAD in exotics and REALLY kill it...

oh by the way...today...said horse...not even on the board...now 24-12

some say....why don't post who you like....years ago I did...had some pretty good streaks posting...also posted some losers....it's horse racing...happens...

so...2 fold answer...hate letting people down...but in the end...people don't appreciate anything free...and why should I kill the odds something anyways...

wait...that's mighty arrogant some might say...well too bad...so sad...for whom-ever...

[sammy the sage]

I'm back...24-12...for current year...and for sat. 10/8...once again...have to pick against Lady Eli 8/5 ML #5 race 6 Belmont...going longer....yes...she needed a race....but think that 1.25 mile might be a bit much...her stable mate other "Brownie"..Sea Calesa...will NOT be a problem for her....

[sammy the sage]

for those on the west coast...at the great race place...S.A....in the 6th...#7 Dutt Bart 2/1 ML...am against...lugged in last...going a bit longer now on quick T.A...don't care for...several here look like could improve to win

and in the 8th...tough call here...but Obviously #8 ML 9/5 have to be against the old warrior...there is other speed & Talamo is where...not here...why???...perhaps this horse needs to go the Ben's Cat route...shorten up...which if he goes down the hill in the BC sprint turf...WTFO...

[sammy the sage]

2-1 on the day...glad to see lady eli run well tho...26-13 now...

[sammy the sage]

10/29

4th at Belmont...against #2 Lewis Bay 6/5ML...because of connections I guess...not the fastest here...maybe today...but betting against...

9th at Kee...against #2 here as well...Noble Bird 6/5 ML...now he IS tHE fastest...bbbuuutttttt....very inconsistent...a coin-flip if you will...there is enough early pace here to make his trip much more demanding...don't think he has it in him...

[sammy the sage]

well that was embarrassing 0-2...reasons off..26-15...now

[sammy the sage]

11/2 church 9th Toasting Master #1 ML 2/1...don't like the race spacing...seems odd for him to be here+++handicapping wise...I like a few better...there are three here that might be him on square anyways...so will not be playing in the win spot...bet against...

[sammy the sage]

another one bites the dust...that would be me...ouch...gone cold...26-16 now...but the BC beckons...

[sammy the sage]

11/4...at the great race place...BC day 1

3rd...against #4 Melmich...looking at it...at 2/1 ML...thought it was a bad line...maybe not tho...seeing lot's of players liking him...personally...I don't get it here...like four different animals better here...so am AGAINST...

9th...against #1 songbird at 6/5 ML...she'll have to prove it to me...she very well might as she really hasn't been asked...but the way she staggered home at "Toga" gives me pause...yes she ran well since...but these are different critters as we all know...

Not a pick against ...but a comment...personally I don't think Dortman is a lock...50/50 at best...will reluctantly include him in wagers....those tight turns w/some TRUE early gas in the race...will be interesting for sure...

[ultracapper]

I don't think Dortmund is a lock either. I don't remember him winning any eyeball to eyeball battles down the stretch. I don't trust horses that only win when they are clear. I like to see them win those head to head battles, and I don't remember him winning any. He can be beat in the stretch. That's dangerous.

[sammy the sage]

I'm counting the day as 0-0-3 or as if I didn't post at all...

..1st...dortman didn't count...yes I played against and warned about him...but was not an official pick

2nd...milmich...obvious bad line in the end...so even tho right...doesn't count

3rd...although right about songbird not winning ...I actually think she DID...talk about a doctored up win photo...what BALLS the home track has...

so yeah..not counting for or against...

[sammy the sage]

27-16...have some work to do...to end up as good as last year...

the songbird fiasco...turns out the camera angle was bad...just LOOKS very bad for S.A....since I did cash...and that's what this game is about...guess I should renege and count that pick....which I did...

time for a turkey...8th at Aquaduct...#9 Stallwalkin' Dude 2-1 ML...I.O. likes to take him wide...good luck w/that toting an extra 13 lbs...if he beats me...he beats me....

[sammy the sage]

and how about a side of ham..

church 10th...#8 Go Maggie Go 8/5 ML...Dale Romans is COLD....Filly obviously had some issues...Saez doesn't show...and besides...betting against short prices in large fields...especially females....can be long term...VERY rewarding....

ps...not all that enamored w/the other short priced one in here as well...

[ultracapper]

What's a 1943 copper penny getting these days?

[sammy the sage]

the turkey was VERY good today....the ham EVEN better....record now 29-16...

ps...for ultra... http://cointrackers.com/coins/13594/1943-copper-wheat-penny/

[no breathalyzer]

Financial Modeling 2-1 ml tomorrow is a horse shit favorite CD R#10 CHUCK IT OUT!

[sammy the sage]

NB...your pik scratched

12/10/16....at Gulfstream....9th...against #1 Fact Finding 9/5 ML...wi/JV on board a JP trained horse...yes guess I'm crazy...the JUICE runs strong for JP at GS..(ps...that's NOT a racist comment)...it IS a RACE comment...how-ever in THIS case....horse is not the fastest out of the gate and will have to come thru MOST of the field....w/a jock who no longer rides hard INSIDE...ie...wide trip in store...w/MUD a distinct possibility...

[sammy the sage]

well...JV...went to THE front...and that was that...ouch

[sammy the sage]

12/17 at gulfstream...current record 29-17 against the chalk

Today...going against 3 Pletchers...which is crazy IN Fla. esp.!

5th..#6 Genre 9/5 ML...she might not even be the fastest here...plus another Pletcher as well.

7th..#6 Keen Ice 9/5 ML...again more Pletchers...plus this seem like a shake-out race for the Pegasus...a bit short for the "Ice"...and he's a plodder anyways...

10th..#9 Sandiva 2/1ML...will be bet lower w/JC aboard...but can't help but feel this horse has tailed off...has had some scratches/problems??? too...plus I like 2 bombs in here...enough to make a play against!

ps...not a pick & not counting either way...but wouldn't be surprised/shocked to see Cal. Chrome lose the paid work-out today...not touching the race tho...

[sammy the sage]

3-0 today...but not really...the 10th...#9 was NOT the big favorite despite the connections...lot's of big time players saw what I did...so...taking the high road here...and not counting...

The big thing tho...several OTHERs that went off at less than 2-1...and did NOT try and beat...that's the secret...when and when NOT to beat THE so-called unbeatables...so 2-0 today...31-17...so far...this year

[sammy the sage]

wow...California Chrome...not even breaking a sweat yesterday!!!

Today 12/18...a different story...at L.A...7th race...#4 California Diamond...1/1ML...think he turns into Coal going longer...couple of these could jump up...meanwhile...he needs a break...will take a stab against today!

[sammy the sage]

finished on posted picks against at 32-17...66%...not too bad on a situation where normally the chalk wins at 60-70% clip...depending on field size, ect....the holy grail was 70% against...which was accomplished the 1st year!

for today...MLK 1/16/17...got 2 to take a stand against...

Aqua...5th...#6 Stallwalkin Dude 4/5 ML...a complete hunch here...DJ runs 'em the lemon is dry...might be that time....plus thinking...not much early zip here to help his cause....

S.A...7th...#6 Tiz a Kiss 2/1 ML...thinking NF turf...and race set-up does her in...

[sammy the sage]

2-0 starting 2017....got one today...50/50....she might scratch???

would be in the 10th at FG...75 stakes...#10 I'm a chatterbox 8/5 ML...if runs...probably 3/5...towers over this field figurewise...BBBBuuuuuuuutttttttt....is scheduled for grass...will 95% chance come off and be muddy...either way...if she doesn't scratch...will be against here...1st time either way...and this race is OBVIOUSLY just a work-out...so not fully cranked in my book...there are a couple here that have run well on muddy...and some w/much better wet track breeding...will take a stand against her today...

[sammy the sage]

Well she did scratch...so onward for today 1/28...Trainer Bob Baffert has had fate treat him VERY cruelly in the past...and also BEEN very kind as well lately...as for today...50/50 on Arrogate...just going to watch...

that written...am going to take swing against in the feature at S.A. 9th #7 Coils Gold 2/1 ML...think being over-bet here...plus work-outs not exactly BB's normal blazing type...perhaps he's changing his style...will be against to find out...

[sammy the sage]

Glad I stayed away from GS betting...but a what performance Arrogate...

now 3-0 on the year as the other baffert ran dead last at S.A....til next time

[sammy the sage]

6th race at GS...#4 Pretty City Dancer...7/5 ML...a classic case of class VS figures...but the classy horse won 5 months ago and then missed some highly profitable races if truly THAT good...yes going against THIS trainer at GS is normally not a good idea...but am going to take my chances...

There is also a 50/50 shot the ML is off...other's might get strong play...and she might drift up....if not the favorite....all picks and bets are off...which has happened before...

[sammy the sage]

for today 2/4/17...adding 8th at S.A..#1..Hoppertunity...2/1 ML...game and most of the time outclassed...here he seems to have a class advantage and the works have been stellar for Mr. Baffert....but I think Mr. B's OTHER entry has more up-side...as does another in here....and you have a trainer who seems to have discovered a NEW water/hay/oats jump-up feed (if you will..catch my drift)....so w/3 here I think gotta shot...will leave "Hop" off THE top...

[sammy the sage]

For the record...both went off at 2nd choice...not favored...pcd still went at 2/1 ..while hop went at 5/2...

actual picks against 1-1
if just using 2/1 criteria 1-0
if must be favorite as well...0-0

any input as to how to score this would be appreciated...as no final parameter's set in stone...

best guess would be if figuring multi-race sequences you would've been against both...and been 1-1 on the bet against...

[lamboguy]

i went against the chalk in the 9th at Gulfstream and he destroyed me yesterday. i knew the horse was good and going to get bet, my horse broke poorly and finished 4th.

[sammy the sage]

4-1 so far 2017...for sat...2/11...

Tampa feature Davis 10th...#8 McCraken 2/1 ML... is not fully cranked...and even if he was...there are a couple in here that might would beat him anyways...then again...they might not be fully cranked either...ah...what a game...trainer intent :bang: :rolleyes: :eek:

and at the great race place S.A. 4th...#6 Vale Dori 1/5 ML...Baffert doesn't do nearly as well with THE ladies...(ie...horses)...keeping them fresh and all...last works not inspiring....will be against today....

[sammy the sage]

might have to stick to THAT angle play http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=135795

4-3 now as both Fav's rolled off...easily....What was I thinking.... :(

[sammy the sage]

2/18..Oaklawn 9th feature race...#2 Terra Promessa 6/5 ML...will be against her today...won't be up front so easily and last was an explosion on figs...can you say bounce?...maybe... maybe not...but I actually like another here from a handicapping point of view....so will take a stand against her on top..

[sammy the sage]

4 & 4 on the year posted...not good for what am trying to accomplish...been very busy since Feb...won't bore ya'll with details...:sleeping:

Today...6/3...at Penn...both races...Against

6th..#7 Adorable Miss 2/1...strictly on connections...hope public follows along...horse not even close to fastest here

8th..#5 page McKenny 9/5...he WAS the best horse here...just thinking something IS amiss...???....why entered here...had plenty of BIGGER purses to go after and skipped...esp, considering past history...could be wrong tho...but will take a stand against...

[sammy the sage]

1-0 on the day...not counting Page...although didn't win...didn't go off favored either...so taking the high road as done previously and not padding the stats...5-4 y-t-d.

[sammy the sage]

6/17...Churchill...7th race...#1 Forever Unbridled...4/5...about 5 mins. to post...sorry was going to post earlier...trainer saying she might night be 100% ready ...that makes her a definite bet against here & now......

although...sometimes THEY lie....:popcorn::rolleyes:

[sammy the sage]

ouch...that didn't work out to well...she looked good....jockey knew it the whole way too...5-5 ytd..

[sammy the sage]

ah...opening day at the Spa....7/21...

today's attempted throw-outs from win spot are..

1st #1 Indyscott...8/5 ML...the horse doesn't win...just sucks money...several here look equally favorable...

4th #3 Patternrecognition...8/5 ML...Jockey Jumps...so will I...

[sammy the sage]

6-6 ytd...today at the Spa...8/11/17...8th...post time just past 5pm...will be against #6 Stallwalkin' dude...7/5 ml...class of the field...but something ain't right in my book...ie...reading between the lines...we'll see...this year not nearly as good as previous 2...but hey...it ain't over til it's over...:popcorn: