Best Bet of the Day

[Capper Al]

Back in the 80's/90's, someone did a study of public handicapper's Best Bet of the Day selections. The study revealed that there wasn't any significant difference between the public handicappers' overall win rate that included non best bets and their best bet picks. Nowadays, we have more information available. I wonder if the public handicappers couldn't do better than their overall hit rate when predicting a best bet.

For us punters, TTC contests have become very popular on the Internet recently. (Please forgive me for I have forgotten what TTC or the commonly used NAP(best bet) stand for.) But my point is that picking the mandatory Best Bet(NAP) out of 8 races has given me some new insight into my wagering. Sure we are all proud of our selections before the race. But before the races, can you tell which selection is the best of all your selections?

I participate in TTC contests now. And realize that picking the NAP is difficult. Some in the contest just go with the trackman's lowest odds horse that they have chosen. Others go by race type and might avoid maidens or large field sizes, for example. Whatever method one uses, studying between one's race selections provides a much needed new and refreshing insight into the game.

[sammy the sage]

Capper Al...great thought provoking threads lately...keep up the good work...

that said...can tell you you're best bet...sometimes it's good to hear it from a stranger....stick to the horse racing and stay outta politics... ;)

I should listen to my own advice... :D

[Overlay]

Back in the 80's/90's, someone did a study of public handicapper's Best Bet of the Day selections. The study revealed that there wasn't any significant difference between the public handicappers' overall win rate that included non best bets and their best bet picks. Nowadays, we have more information available. I wonder if the public handicappers couldn't do better than their overall hit rate when predicting a best bet.

For us punters, TTC contests have become very popular on the Internet recently. (Please forgive me for I have forgotten what TTC or the commonly used NAP(best bet) stand for.) But my point is that picking the mandatory Best Bet(NAP) out of 8 races has given me some new insight into my wagering. Sure we are all proud of our selections before the race. But before the races, can you tell which selection is the best of all your selections?

I participate in TTC contests now. And realize that picking the NAP is difficult. Some in the contest just go with the trackman's lowest odds horse that they have chosen. Others go by race type and might avoid maidens or large field sizes, for example. Whatever method one uses, studying between one's race selections provides a much needed new and refreshing insight into the game.
As far as I am aware:

TTC = Through The Card
Nap = A favorable situation that invites the taking of risks (from a similar usage in the card game Napoleon (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Napoleon_(card_game))).

I believe the above terms are associated primarily with British racing.

As for my best selection, I can tell before a given group or card of races which horse in it has the best absolute chance of winning (at least according to the way I handicap). However, the most likely winner might not be the most potentially profitable wager from a betting standpoint. I'd have to have some idea of the public odds on the horses to determine that.

[Robert Fischer]

win rate = anyone can outperform their other selections with a BB


profit = most players can't identify profitable plays

[Capper Al]

Yes, it was on a British board that I first encountered TTC contests.

Being able to rank your wagers should translate into more profit later on.

[thaskalos]

win rate = anyone can outperform their other selections with a BB


profit = most players can't identify profitable plays
I agree. Tell players to select their "best bets of the day", and almost all of them will gravitate to their most obvious selections...which are also their least profitable ones. In fact, I would argue that a big problem for most players is that they have too small a bet riding on their longshot winners...simply because they didn't look like "best bets" beforehand.

[ultracapper]

Higher the odds, bigger the bet. The only way to play.

[thaskalos]

Higher the odds, bigger the bet. The only way to play.
Easier said than done...

[Capper Al]

win rate = anyone can outperform their other selections with a BB


profit = most players can't identify profitable plays

The study didn't find a statistical significance between a public handicapper's overall win percentage and their best bet win percentage. How can one be profitable if they first can't distinguish between their own choices.

[ReplayRandall]

How can one be profitable if they first can't distinguish between their own choices.
If there's an edge with one or more of my contenders according to the tote-board, what difference does it make? You've never made multiple win bets in a race, Al?

[Capper Al]

If there's an edge with one or more of my contenders according to the tote-board, what difference does it make? You've never made multiple win bets in a race, Al?

We are not talking here between contenders within a race. We are talking about our choices between races.

[Robert Fischer]

The study didn't find a statistical significance between a public handicapper's overall win percentage and their best bet win percentage. How can one be profitable if they first can't distinguish between their own choices.

Depends on whether those cappers 'best bets' were meant to be high win percentage, or high value.

simply choosing the lowest ml as 'best bet' in every card would out-perform handicapping hit-rates, in terms of hit percentage.

[ReplayRandall]

We are not talking here between contenders within a race. We are talking about our choices between races.
My bad......For me, it might be the metrics of the race(lone speed), it's a stealthy looking replay bet, or my line's perceived value coming into a race, as it being a best bet. As a whole, I rarely get the odds I want anyway, thus I lose my edge and have few best bets, outside of my replays.

[traynor]

Higher the odds, bigger the bet. The only way to play.

If you want the money. The dutch exacta advocates aim to recoup their wagers if low pay combos hit, and from there to "a sizable return" if their less obvious (to the public) selections win/place. I don't know anyone who uses that approach for win bets, but it is not uncommon in exotics. Lots of money going out, but lots of money coming back in. And frequently.

[traynor]

Yes, it was on a British board that I first encountered TTC contests.

Being able to rank your wagers should translate into more profit later on.

Do you use private data sources for the UK races? Most US bettors suffer intense performance anxiety without the familiar internal fractions and position calls.

[traynor]

The study didn't find a statistical significance between a public handicapper's overall win percentage and their best bet win percentage. How can one be profitable if they first can't distinguish between their own choices.

Study cited in Decision Traps. Public handicappers were restricted to a limited data set for decisions. Oddly (and a possible caveat for "comprehensive handicappers") as more factors were added, their confidence in their predictions rose, but their accuracy decreased. That would tend to indicate the "best bet" idea a bad one. That is, the more consensus (as in the DRF), the more factors used, the more "certainty of correctness," the lower the accuracy.

I monitored various prognosticators way back, and still do occasionally. Blech. That's why I write my own software.

http://http-server.carleton.ca/~aramirez/4406/Reviews/TPham.pdf

[plainolebill]

If I could tell ahead of time which bets were the "Best Bets" I'd never lose. I just squint my eye and throw a lot of stuff against the wall hoping some of it sticks.

[Capper Al]

Depends on whether those cappers 'best bets' were meant to be high win percentage, or high value.

simply choosing the lowest ml as 'best bet' in every card would out-perform handicapping hit-rates, in terms of hit percentage.

Robert,

I appreciate the point of view on value, but in this discussion it's simply about hitting the winner and not profit. I have just ended a streak of hitting 6 best bets in a row yesterday in my posted picks. And this wasn't from picking the lowest ML odds horse.

What some in TTC contest do is to look over their picks in each race and select their lowest ML horse, thereby giving up on figuring it out on their own. Actually, this isn't a bad approach for a quick and easy method.

[Capper Al]

Do you use private data sources for the UK races? Most US bettors suffer intense performance anxiety without the familiar internal fractions and position calls.

I don't play foreign races. The British site that I'm on has a Stateside thread with a small group of very fine handicappers. Here's the site:

Best of the Bets -- Stateside (http://mboard.infopop.cc/eve/forums/a/frm/f/1236084792)

[Capper Al]

If I could tell ahead of time which bets were the "Best Bets" I'd never lose. I just squint my eye and throw a lot of stuff against the wall hoping some of it sticks.

What I'm saying in this thread is to try to pick your best bet of the day. You'll find challenge worthwhile giving you new insights into the game and your handicapping.

[Capper Al]

Study cited in Decision Traps. Public handicappers were restricted to a limited data set for decisions. Oddly (and a possible caveat for "comprehensive handicappers") as more factors were added, their confidence in their predictions rose, but their accuracy decreased. That would tend to indicate the "best bet" idea a bad one. That is, the more consensus (as in the DRF), the more factors used, the more "certainty of correctness," the lower the accuracy.

I monitored various prognosticators way back, and still do occasionally. Blech. That's why I write my own software.

http://http-server.carleton.ca/~aramirez/4406/Reviews/TPham.pdf

I'm always amazed at the depth of your resources.

[traynor]

I'm always amazed at the depth of your resources.

Most people attend college in the hope of a career. I started college (and continued as an undergraduate and graduate student for 10 years) to learn how to handicap horse races better. Seriously.

[Capper Al]

Most people attend college in the hope of a career. I started college (and continued as an undergraduate and graduate student for 10 years) to learn how to handicap horse races better. Seriously.

Same story here. It's a love of learning.