What You Need To Know About The Truth Or Else

[Bob S.]

Trainer Kenny McPeek is at it again, trying to shock the world in this year's Belmont Stakes with longshot The Truth Or Else. In 2002, his horse, Sarava, broke up War Emblem's Triple Crown bid at odds of 70-1. Here's a look at this horse.

http://regalbloodlines.com/2015/05/29/what-you-need-to-know-about-the-truth-or-else/

[nijinski]

He's well bred for the distance but will have to run a much
improved race with these and he's not consistent .
I don't see him winning but yes there was Sarava .

[BlueChip@DRF]

He's well bred for the distance but will have to run a much
improved race with these and he's not consistent .
I don't see him winning but yes there was Sarava .

Sarava was consistent when he hit the dirt. However, I don't think he was a happy camper once Baffert got him.

SARAVA PPS (http://www1.drf.com/tc/belmont/2004/pps/sarava.pdf)

[letswastemoney]

Sarava just shows that 8 to 10 furlong speed figures have little to do with a 12 furlong race.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Sarava just shows that 8 to 10 furlong speed figures have little to do with a 12 furlong race.


The Belmont is a gut check, something you cannot measure by the numbers.

[Rex Phinney]

Sarava just shows that 8 to 10 furlong speed figures have little to do with a 12 furlong race.

Agree, there are no easy tosses in the Belmont. I always think back to watching Da Tara getting comfortable on the lead and noone behind him having the gas left in the tank to do anything about it.

[ILovetheInner]

The Belmont is a gut check, something you cannot measure by the numbers.

So true.

[Redboard]

You have to go back ten years to find a favorite that won the Belmont.

2014- Tonalist, 5th of 11
2013- Palice Malice, 6th of 14
2012- Union Rags, 2nd of 11
2011- Ruler On Ice, 9th of 12
2010- Drosselmeyer, 6th of 12
2009- Summer Bird, 5th of 10
2008- Da Tara, 9th (last) of 9
2007- Rags to Riches, 2nd of 7
2006- Jazil, 5th of 12
2005- Afleet Alex, 1st of 11

[burnsy]

You have to go back ten years to find a favorite that won the Belmont.

2014- Tonalist, 5th of 11
2013- Palice Malice, 6th of 14
2012- Union Rags, 2nd of 11
2011- Ruler On Ice, 9th of 12
2010- Drosselmeyer, 6th of 12
2009- Summer Bird, 5th of 10
2008- Da Tara, 9th (last) of 9
2007- Rags to Riches, 2nd of 7
2006- Jazil, 5th of 12
2005- Afleet Alex, 1st of 11

Yet, there are clowns that think a person is nuts for playing against the fave in this race just because its a TC attempt. There is a thread called "Who is playing against'? It should be called "why wouldn't you play against"? Over the last 15 years one could of made a killing and these horses keep getting worse at the distance. Plus, eliminating horses that people say have "no shot" is another good way to lose sight of this race. This is the kind of race where one has to look at them all or pay the piper, the fave can win, but its a rare occurrence. Its not just a "jockeys race" its a "handicappers race" too because "the fans" generally lose their shirts in this one.

[sbcaris]

Although favorites do not win the Belmont stakes often (only 3 favorites won in the last 20 years --Afleet Alex, Point Given and Thunder Gulch), they tend to finish in the money frequently. 14 of the last 20 Belmont favorites finished in the money.

[Redboard]

Just realized that of that list, only Afleet alex ran in the Preakness.

[Robert Fischer]

need to know that he's going up against AP, Frosted, Materiality...

[LemonSoupKid]

Just realized that of that list, only Afleet alex ran in the Preakness.

I had posted this elsewhere.

Just shows you that you that, especially moving forward in modern times, freshness does matter given the lack of foundation and pedigree for stamina so many horses fail to demonstrate these days.

Afleet Alex and Point Given proved they were more than worthy, as I think dominating the Belmont after running the previous two is more impressive than racing luck and pooping out in the last. I'm not trying to take credit away from anyone, but the Triple Crown "failures" should be less thought of vs. the lamentation of how hard it is luck-wise to win a 20 horse field, which certainly kept AA and PG from the TC.

[BlueChip@DRF]

I had posted this elsewhere.

Just shows you that you that, especially moving forward in modern times, freshness does matter given the lack of foundation and pedigree for stamina so many horses fail to demonstrate these days.

Afleet Alex and Point Given proved they were more than worthy, as I think dominating the Belmont after running the previous two is more impressive than racing luck and pooping out in the last. I'm not trying to take credit away from anyone, but the Triple Crown "failures" should be less thought of vs. the lamentation of how hard it is luck-wise to win a 20 horse field, which certainly kept AA and PG from the TC.


Sir Barton - 12 starters in his Derby run; his Preakness was 9F
Gallant Fox - 15; odd that the Preakness and Derby dates were 'switched' back then
Omaha - 18; Preakness was one week later and he still squeezed in a race between the Preakness and Belmont
War Admiral - 20; Preakness was one week later
Whirlaway - 11; Preakness was one week later and he still squeezed in a race between the Preakness and Belmont
Count Fleet - 10; Preakness was one week later and he still squeezed in a win in The Withers two weeks before The Belmont
Assault - 17; Preakness was one week later
Citation - 6; Preakness was two weeks later, won The Jersey Stakes two weeks before his coronation run
Secretariat - 13; Preakness and Belmont on the schedule we presently have
Seattle Slew - 15
Affirmed - 11

[ArlJim78]

Yet, there are clowns that think a person is nuts for playing against the fave in this race just because its a TC attempt. There is a thread called "Who is playing against'? It should be called "why wouldn't you play against"? Over the last 15 years one could of made a killing and these horses keep getting worse at the distance. Plus, eliminating horses that people say have "no shot" is another good way to lose sight of this race. This is the kind of race where one has to look at them all or pay the piper, the fave can win, but its a rare occurrence. Its not just a "jockeys race" its a "handicappers race" too because "the fans" generally lose their shirts in this one.
Someone might have played against the favorite in every single one of those Belmonts and not made a dime much less made a killing. you still have to pick something correctly which is the hard part.
I get so tired of hearing people say they're playing against the favorite. Unless you're talking about lay betting, which I doubt, its a rather meaningless statement.

[f2tornado]

Someone might have played against the favorite in every single one of those Belmonts and not made a dime much less made a killing. you still have to pick something correctly which is the hard part.
I get so tired of hearing people say they're playing against the favorite. Unless you're talking about lay betting, which I doubt, its a rather meaningless statement.

Yes but that's not what the poster was saying. The poster was discussing people on the favorite bandwagon dismissing all other horses chances. It's a safe assumption most people betting the favorite every TC attempt have lighter wallets as a result. And yes, folks betting against still need to pick the right horse although just eyeballing payouts since 2008 it looks like a person could have put $2 on every horse excluding the favorite and still have a strongly positive ROI. Maybe AP wins this thing but the inevitable talk and condescending attitude towards folks suggesting otherwise is getting so stale I'm now hoping the horse loses.

[boys at tosconova]

You have to go back ten years to find a favorite that won the Belmont.

2014- Tonalist, 5th of 11
2013- Palice Malice, 6th of 14
2012- Union Rags, 2nd of 11

2005- Afleet Alex, 1st of 11

these last 3 winners were more than playable. PM was a liultl guess and hope but playable....materiality could prove to be a palace malice type at lower odds.

there are no tonalist or union rags types in here. half the field is outclassed closer types

[Robert Fischer]

Someone might have played against the favorite in every single one of those Belmonts and not made a dime much less made a killing. you still have to pick something correctly which is the hard part.
I get so tired of hearing people say they're playing against the favorite. Unless you're talking about lay betting, which I doubt, its a rather meaningless statement.

You have to go back ten years to find a favorite that won the Belmont.

2014- Tonalist, 5th of 11
2013- Palice Malice, 6th of 14
2012- Union Rags, 2nd of 11
2011- Ruler On Ice, 9th of 12
2010- Drosselmeyer, 6th of 12
2009- Summer Bird, 5th of 10
2008- Da Tara, 9th (last) of 9
2007- Rags to Riches, 2nd of 7
2006- Jazil, 5th of 12
2005- Afleet Alex, 1st of 11

No handicapping,
Throw out the favorite and use the next 4 public horses = 5/10
Throw out the favorite and use the next 5 public horses = 7/10

Should be well ahead if you are a decent multi-race player, although i'm not game for cracking open the charts of all the surrounding races.

Main Point = No betting exchange required.

[bobphilo]

Someone might have played against the favorite in every single one of those Belmonts and not made a dime much less made a killing. you still have to pick something correctly which is the hard part.
I get so tired of hearing people say they're playing against the favorite. Unless you're talking about lay betting, which I doubt, its a rather meaningless statement.

Very well put. I'm hearing a lot of nonsense about betting against AP but not a word about who is supposed to beat him. Last time I looked handicapping involved comparing a horse against who his competition will be on that day, not against horses from the past which I believe will not be running in this years Belmont.

[Redboard]

Very well put. I'm hearing a lot of nonsense about betting against AP but not a word about who is supposed to beat him. Last time I looked handicapping involved comparing a horse against who his competition will be on that day, not against horses from the past which I believe will not be running in this years Belmont.

There will be plenty of time for that when the field is solidified and the post positions are assigned, but just off the top of my head, Materiality (as some mentioned) looks like a real contender. Had a bad trip in the derby yet still finished with the highest LP of any. Sire was Afleet Alex ( see above list). Ran the derby, skipped the Preakness, which is what most on that list did. Pletcher isn't the greatest 3yrOld trainer, but the best around these days in the Belmont(see ILovetheInner's post in "Bob Baffert’s record in the Belmont." )
At this point I'd take him at 3-1, rather than AP at 1-1. It's just handicapping 101.

[f2tornado]

Very well put. I'm hearing a lot of nonsense about betting against AP but not a word about who is supposed to beat him.

I have not seen any post about a horse that is supposed to beat AP. None are supposed to beat AP or he wouldn't be the chalk. No shortage of posts discussing potential upset horses and various reasons AP might be more vulnerable at Belmont. I can make a reasonable case for every other contender in the field, some more than others. Not saying any of these will win but would not be shocked with any of them.

Carpe Diem - Blue Grass Brisnet figure as high as any AP put out this year. Trainer does well in race and at track. Blemont winning rider/trainer combo. Most classic dosage points in the field.

Frammento - Mike Smith to start. Zito known for bombers. The top of Roman's 12fFQ pace calculation.

Frosted - Rosario won it last year. Horse perhaps the best bred for distance in race. Terrible start in Derby or likely hits the tri or better. Best Brisnet speed figure (107 in Wood) of any starter. Has trip over the track. In Roman's top five in 6 of 7 pace parameter calculations.

Keen Ice - Kenny D has been in winner's circle before and I'm certain he'd love the irony of playing spoiler here. Horse has ideal dosage index and CD. Sire Curlin performed well in TC races. Passed a lot of horses late in Derby. Belmont typically doesn't favor closers but if this horse can pace a bit more than would not be shocked to bomb the board.

Madefromlucky - Most dosage points in the field. Won Peter Pan with a 99 Brisnet figure which was only a point less than AP in Derby or Peakness and we've seen the prep over track card before. Add in a bullet work last week and this horse could be improving at the right time. Again, TAP does well in this race. Buckpasser-x should help with stamina. The horse is second from the top in Roman's 12F pace calculation.

Materiality - Another TAP entry. Highest BSF of the field and second highest Brisnet figure. Running style conducive to the race. Reminds me a bit of Commissioner last year aside from partaking in KY Derby where he closed well after brutal start. Should have no excuses this time. Would not be surprised to see an AP-Materiality merry go round like Tonalist and Commissioner last year.

Mubtaahij - Maybe just needed a race after shipping. Gets local rider. Potential is still a bit unknown.

Tale of Verve - I initially downplayed his Preakness but this horse could potentially be finally fulfilling potential. Another horse dropped into his lane in the Preakness stretch and he simply ran around it like water around a rock in the river. Has a nice looking dosage line with 26 total points with 2 solid points and 2 professional points. Gary Stevens is nothing short of Belmont Stakes stud who should have this horse a little closer to the pace as closers from the clouds don't usually win this race.

The Truth Or Else - We've seen that trainer's name win at a price before. This horse has Buckpasser-x in tail female line as well as family 1-x which has won it's share of TC races. Prado has also won this race bringing upset Birdstone home. TTOE has three trips over the track and winning two of them. This horse is at the top of Roman's 12F pace calculation.

[ReplayRandall]

I have not seen any post about a horse that is supposed to beat AP. None are supposed to beat AP or he wouldn't be the chalk. No shortage of posts discussing potential upset horses and various reasons AP might be more vulnerable at Belmont. I can make a reasonable case for every other contender in the field, some more than others. Not saying any of these will win but would not be shocked with any of them.

Carpe Diem - Blue Grass Brisnet figure as high as any AP put out this year. Trainer does well in race and at track. Blemont winning rider/trainer combo. Most classic dosage points in the field.

Frammento - Mike Smith to start. Zito known for bombers. The top of Roman's 12fFQ pace calculation.

Frosted - Rosario won it last year. Horse perhaps the best bred for distance in race. Terrible start in Derby or likely hits the tri or better. Best Brisnet speed figure (107 in Wood) of any starter. Has trip over the track. In Roman's top five in 6 of 7 pace parameter calculations.

Keen Ice - Kenny D has been in winner's circle before and I'm certain he'd love the irony of playing spoiler here. Horse has ideal dosage index and CD. Sire Curlin performed well in TC races. Passed a lot of horses late in Derby. Belmont typically doesn't favor closers but if this horse can pace a bit more than would not be shocked to bomb the board.

Madefromlucky - Most dosage points in the field. Won Peter Pan with a 99 Brisnet figure which was only a point less than AP in Derby or Peakness and we've seen the prep over track card before. Add in a bullet work last week and this horse could be improving at the right time. Again, TAP does well in this race. Buckpasser-x should help with stamina. The horse is second from the top in Roman's 12F pace calculation.

Materiality - Another TAP entry. Highest BSF of the field and second highest Brisnet figure. Running style conducive to the race. Reminds me a bit of Commissioner last year aside from partaking in KY Derby where he closed well after brutal start. Should have no excuses this time. Would not be surprised to see an AP-Materiality merry go round like Tonalist and Commissioner last year.

Mubtaahij - Maybe just needed a race after shipping. Gets local rider. Potential is still a bit unknown.

Tale of Verve - I initially downplayed his Preakness but this horse could potentially be finally fulfilling potential. Another horse dropped into his lane in the Preakness stretch and he simply ran around it like water around a rock in the river. Has a nice looking dosage line with 26 total points with 2 solid points and 2 professional points. Gary Stevens is nothing short of Belmont Stakes stud who should have this horse a little closer to the pace as closers from the clouds don't usually win this race.

The Truth Or Else - We've seen that trainer's name win at a price before. This horse has Buckpasser-x in tail female line as well as family 1-x which has won it's share of TC races. Prado has also won this race bringing upset Birdstone home. TTOE has three trips over the track and winning two of them. This horse is at the top of Roman's 12F pace calculation.
Nice synopsis, F2.... :ThmbUp:

[boys at tosconova]

At this point I'd take him at 3-1, rather than AP at 1-1. It's just handicapping 101.


AP can't be even money in belmont. he has to be much lower. as for secondary options. people can't be nearly as confident in materiality as they were tonalist. i know i'm not. as i had tonalist. however,..the lack of other viable options are severely lacking besides him and frosted.

[Tom]

Left him in the tub to long, must be.
Out of Belmont after his bath.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Out of The Belmont.

/end

#came_to_senses