Oops.....the economy actually contracted

[JustRalph]

instead of the original .02 growth........ heretofore known as the "lie"

The economy actually contracted .07

hell of swing huh?

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_ECONOMY_GDP?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2015-05-29-08-31-04

[horses4courses]

It's good that you get something to cheer about every so often.

[classhandicapper]

Not so fast. The bean counters have decided it's a flaw in their new pie in the sky seasonal adjustments. They are working of fixing it (in other words rigging it) so the data will show GDP growth. The government just makes stuff up. It's hilarious.

[Clocker]

Not so fast. The bean counters have decided it's a flaw in their new pie in the sky seasonal adjustments. They are working of fixing it (in other words rigging it) so the data will show GDP growth.

They need to hire the guys that reconstruct global temperature data thousands of years in the past to prove global warming.

[Steve 'StatMan']

Not so fast. The bean counters have decided it's a flaw in their new pie in the sky seasonal adjustments. They are working of fixing it (in other words rigging it) so the data will show GDP growth. The government just makes stuff up. It's hilarious.

Of course! Why not? With Fiat Money, (like all other nations) and $17-$18 Trillion in debt, they just make up all our money too! (I wish that was hilarious, but it isn't.)

[davew]

Many official government releases come with great fanfare but less mention is given 2-3 months later as they are 'adjusted' to the real less flattering number.

[JustRalph]

It's good that you get something to cheer about every so often.

I'm not cheering. But I don't live in the same economy you do. :lol:

Still booming here.........even with the oil slump.

[Robert Goren]

There is no doubt that the unusually bad weather in the Northeast had much to do with this. Whether some will admit it or not, the Northeast is still the major hub of economic activity in this country. It may be changing but hasn't changed to point where what happens there is irrelevant. Business outside of the Northeast did just fine in the first quarter. The real test of how much the "Texas Boom" is happening will be in the second quarter as Texas is now getting the bad weather that is slowing business down there. If we don't see bad numbers for the second quarter, we will know that Texas has been over sold as a driver of US GDP and still does not rival the Northeast in economic activity. If Texas is major factor in GDP growth, then the numbers for the second quarter should be around +1%. If it is +2-2.5% then Texas is not as much a factor as they claim.
I still expect a major fall off GDP in either the third or fourth quarter because of shutting down of the oil industry especially in areas where there is a lot of new drilling. I heard yesterday that the cost of getting oil from shale is dropping like a rock(pun intended). I heard it is nearing $35 a barrel. If that is true, new off shore drilling will come to an end even though they have opened up offshore drilling off the Carolinas coast and in a new area in Alaska. It is also bad news for the Canadian oil sands which I read has a much higher cost ($75-$80 a barrel). However new technology has also enable onshore rigs such as in west Texas to cut their cost substantially. Unless we see a rise in demand for oil in the world markets, oil prices will fall. Too bad, the US was just beginning to be a major producer. We desperately need something we can export. Until we find something we can export, it is hard to see the growth rate in GDP getting much above 3% even in the best of times.

[JustRalph]

Texas is number 2 in GDP Robert.

I don't know where you get some of this crap. It's ahead of NY and the northeast in every category when it comes to GDP. The Northeast sits well behind except for NY. Which is right behind Texas

List of U.S. states and territories by GSP in 2015
State 2015 Rank 2015 GSP $ Millions
California 1 2,287,021
Texas 2 1,602,584
New York 3 1,350,286
Florida 4 833,511
Illinois 5 742,407
PA 6 664,872
Ohio 7 584,696
NJ 8 560,667
NC 9 491,572
Georgia 10 472,423

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_by_GDP

[DRIVEWAY]

Texas is number 2 in GDP Robert.

I don't know where you get some of this crap. It's ahead of NY and the northeast in every category when it comes to GDP. The Northeast sits well behind except for NY. Which is right behind Texas

List of U.S. states and territories by GSP in 2015
State 2015 Rank 2015 GSP $ Millions
California 1 2,287,021
Texas 2 1,602,584
New York 3 1,350,286
Florida 4 833,511
Illinois 5 742,407
PA 6 664,872
Ohio 7 584,696
NJ 8 560,667
NC 9 491,572
Georgia 10 472,423

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_by_GDP

When you think of New York, you normally are thinking about the Metropolitan New York area which includes the majority of New Jersey and Connecticut. Area wise this is still much smaller than Texas.

Perhaps Texas should include Oklahoma and New Mexico as a comparison to the Metropolitan New York Area.

Just a Thought.

[Robert Goren]

You can throw out all the numbers you want concerning Texas, but last winter when the Northeast was hit by a blizzard, Even things here in Nebraska slowed down. Now with the floods in Texas, if it were not for the 24 hour cable news channels, we would not even know about the flooding. Maybe we are just connected more to the Northeast than Texas.
Just one more thing, if Texas is such a great place, how come they do not even have a decent race track. When they legalized pari-mutuel years ago, I thought they would rival NY, S.Cal and Fla for great racing. Boy, was I wrong.

[mostpost]

instead of the original .02 growth........ heretofore known as the "lie"

The economy actually contracted .07

hell of swing huh?

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_ECONOMY_GDP?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2015-05-29-08-31-04
You have your decimal in the wrong place. It should be 0.7. A seven tenths of a percent in GDP. So what. Last year in the first quarter, GDP declined by 2.1%. The next three quarters it went up 4.6%; 5.0% and 2.2%. I suspect the same will happen this year.

[Saratoga_Mike]

You have your decimal in the wrong place. It should be 0.7. A seven tenths of a percent in GDP. So what. Last year in the first quarter, GDP declined by 2.1%. The next three quarters it went up 4.6%; 5.0% and 2.2%. I suspect the same will happen this year.

2Q15 is not trending at anywhere near 4.6%. That said, the first-quarter number is incorrect. The best high frequency indicators for the economy are weekly jobless claims and HY spreads. Claims trended well in 1Q15, and spreads are tame.

[Hoofless_Wonder]

You have your decimal in the wrong place. It should be 0.7. A seven tenths of a percent in GDP. So what. Last year in the first quarter, GDP declined by 2.1%. The next three quarters it went up 4.6%; 5.0% and 2.2%. I suspect the same will happen this year.

I'll book that bet. The Fat Lady is doing her scales, the music is winding down, and the Fed, the Banks, the Hedge Funds and anyone with a clue is looking for a chair to sit down on.

The Great Charade has about run its course.....

[Pick 'em Charlie]

instead of the original .02 growth........ heretofore known as the "lie"

The economy actually contracted .07

hell of swing huh?

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_ECONOMY_GDP?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2015-05-29-08-31-04

Lie? Everyone expected the adjustment to come on Wall Street.

[JustRalph]

Lie? Everyone expected the adjustment to come on Wall Street.

Then why announce it with the misleading data for the average joe to consume? before they correct it........... I wonder why?

:bang:

[Tom]

Because the lie gets the publicity and fuels the false narrative of the left until the next lie comes out.

Whatever the government tells you, it is a lie.
Both sides.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Then why announce it with the misleading data for the average joe to consume? before they correct it........... I wonder why?

:bang:

The govt's GDP estimates are notoriously horrible. There's a data release schedule and it's followed. If you want an accurate estimate of 1Q15 GDP growth, look at the government data in two years.

Think about it: the government is trying to calculate qtr-on-qtr growth of a $17 trillion economy, only a couple of months after the qtr ends. You know full well if the government can't pull off simple email retention at the IRS, it certainly can't pull off this calculation in two months.

If you want to track the short-term health of the economy, look at weekly jobless claims (which is state-level data rolled up at the federal level) and manufacturing/services PMI/ISM stats. On an intermediate-term basis, I'd add in the Fed's qtr'ly lending survey and Chicago financial conditions index. State-level tax receipts are helpful, too, but the data isn't widely published.

[Pick 'em Charlie]

Then why announce it with the misleading data for the average joe to consume? before they correct it........... I wonder why?

:bang:

The way it works for most quarterly economic data is that it is given as a best guess when announced, and corrected in the following quarter with an adjusted better guess. This has been the case for decades. Sorry Ralph, no conspiracy here.

[Tom]

That is now how it is presented by the liars in DC.
It may well be as you say, but they present it as fact.
Much like Benghazi.

They say what suits them, not the truth.
It is a conspiracy in that regard.

[fast4522]

No matter how you skew it, this guy has been bad for us all.

http://www.cnsnews.com/blog/terence-p-jeffrey/blame-it-global-cooling-obama-has-lowest-average-1stq-gdp-growth-any

[JustRalph]

The way it works for most quarterly economic data is that it is given as a best guess when announced, and corrected in the following quarter with an adjusted better guess. This has been the case for decades. Sorry Ralph, no conspiracy here.

I am not saying there is a conspiracy, I'm saying it's a misleading way to report the data. As Tom pointed out, it allows the media to cherry pick which version to highlight.

It's a big carnival show......

[Tom]

And Obama is the clown.