How Low Would You Go?

[Redboard]

The last two in this position, Chrome and Big Brown, went off at 0.85 and 0.30 respectively. I know that most of you here would pass at those odds, but what is the lowest that you would bite? (for a win bet)

[Some_One]

For me I said 4s as I have him at about 3s, same as Materiality and Frosted

[Marshall Bennett]

Ha ha, 3 chime in @ 10-1. Good luck with that. :)

[andtheyreoff]

It wouldn't matter if he's infinity to one. I wouldn't bet him, because he's not winning.

[tiger rose]

I'm with andtheyreoff

not winning
keyed for show

[Redboard]

I wouldn't bet him, because he's not winning.

Your probably right but damn, every horse has his price. :)

I would definitely bite at 10-1.

[Redboard]

Ha ha, 3 chime in @ 10-1. Good luck with that. :)

Good luck with 1-1 too. Probably won't get that, but who knows, with Cal. Chrome fresh in everyone's mind, maybe he'll drift up.

[thaskalos]

I think AP will lose the Belmont...but I must admit that I find the 100/1 odds teasingly inviting.

[garyscpa]

I think AP will lose the Belmont...but I must admit that I find the 100/1 odds teasingly inviting.

Look out. It's a sucker bet.

[Steve 'StatMan']

I agree on the doubting he'll win the Belmont, and I don't plan on betting him, period. Who will beat him/outlast him I have yet to figure out.

[bobphilo]

I agree on the doubting he'll win the Belmont, and I don't plan on betting him, period. Who will beat him/outlast him I have yet to figure out.
So you are planning on betting against a horse without first considering who he's running against? I'd love to book your bets.

[RXB]

So you are planning on betting against a horse without first considering who he's running against? I'd love to book your bets.

That's an interesting criticism to be coming from someone who's already indicated in this poll what odds he'd be willing to accept on American Pharoah.

[horses4courses]

Seems to be no shortage of posters in this thread who must
be bracing themselves for a huge payday a week from Saturday.

We all know that AP will be even money, or less, for the Belmont.
Odds for his rivals will, for the most part, be shouting "overlay".

At this point, AP dominates his peers.
His biggest threat is fatigue - the silent killer in the Belmont.

[RXB]

Seems to be no shortage of posters in this thread who must
be bracing themselves for a huge payday a week from Saturday.

We all know that AP will be even money, or less, for the Belmont.
Odds for his rivals will, for the most part, be shouting "overlay".

At this point, AP dominates his peers.
His biggest threat is fatigue - the silent killer in the Belmont.

Big Brown had dominated his peers and Da'Tara finished his otherwise mediocre career with two lifetime wins.

Smarty Jones had dominated his peers and Birdstone had ran poorly in the Ky Derby.

Spectacular Bid dominated his peers about as thoroughly as is possible, not only before but also after the Belmont Stakes... just not in the Belmont Stakes, which was a problem for anyone who backed him heavily at 1/5. The other three times he faced Coastal in his career he beat him by a total of about 30 lengths-- and Coastal was a genuinely nice horse. Like a lot of people have said: Bid lost, thus ANY horse can lose.

Sunday Silence beat Easy Goer twice and then lost to him by a city block.

Alysheba lost to Bet Twice by two city blocks after defeating him in the Derby and Preakness.

War Emblem was way back at the 70-yard pole when Medaglia D'Oro (and Sarava) arrived at the Belmont finish line, despite having finished well ahead of MDO in the first two legs.

Things change. Things happen. Some of it predictable, some of it not so much. For starters, if some people think that stretching out by 2f-2.5f can't seriously affect the performances, I don't know how they can possibly beat the game on a day-in, day-out basis. Add in the potential for good/bad trip luck, favourable/unfavourable pace, different track, form cycles...

[iceknight]

Won't bet him online unless I get 2-1 (which is impossible now).
But if I am on track, then I am not going to care about the odds for buying a potential piece of history at $2.

[ultracapper]

If he goes off at 2-1 or 5-2 I'll put $20 on him for kicks. Otherwise, I'll just watch. I think he's going to win, but I've never been much of a Belmont Stakes bettor. Usually been an interested observer. I did bet Victory Gallop all those years ago however. I thought he'd turn the tables on Real Quiet, but I sure didn't expect a finish like they gave us.

[ultracapper]

Can you fix the poll results board to read 3-2 instead of having 2 3-1s?

[Redboard]

Can you fix the poll results board to read 3-2 instead of having 2 3-1s?

I realized I bleeped that up after I posted. The site let's you change your post within a few minutes of posting, but, for some reason, not anything in a poll, at least I couldn't do it.
If there is a moderator around, that bottom 3-1 should be 3/2. Thanks

[porchy44]

American Pharaoh will probably go off at 4/5 at the Belmont (deservingly so). He has a legitimate chance to win the Belmont.

I laughed when people would bet him at 10/1 or greater.

If AP went off at 3/1 or greater. I would bet with both fists against him. He would be the "iciest on the board" horse of the year, and would not hit the board.

[thaskalos]

American Pharaoh will probably go off at 4/5 at the Belmont (deservingly so). He has a legitimate chance to win the Belmont.

I laughed when people would bet him at 10/1 or greater.

If AP went off at 3/1 or greater. I would bet with both fists against him. He would be the "iciest on the board" horse of the year, and would not hit the board.
Let's say that AP is "ice on the board" at 3/1 odds in the Belmont. What do you mean by "I would bet with both fists against him"? What actual bet would you make?

[porchy44]

Let's say that AP is "ice on the board" at 3/1 odds in the Belmont. What do you mean by "I would bet with both fists against him"? What actual bet would you make?

I was dreaming of "exchange wagering"
but i would bet Materiality

[Some_One]

Last year Chromie went off at 4/5 in the tote pools but 3/2 on Betfair SP.

[Robert Fischer]

If AP went off at 3/1 or greater. I would bet with both fists against him. He would be the "iciest on the board" horse of the year, and would not hit the board.
this is true.


I voted '4/5', but honestly, I would not bet him at any price in the Belmont (even if the race wasn't 4 days after my cardiac surgery).


(From my perspective) the public has the Belmont Stakes 'right'.
After 15% is taken out of the win pool, there simply isn't a lot of value left if the public has the race correctly figured out. I'll pass.

I bet AP in the derby (because I thought he was a significant overlay), and reluctantly passed the Preakness(because the public was all over AP).

[PaceAdvantage]

Last year Chromie went off at 4/5 in the tote pools but 3/2 on Betfair SP.I suspect things will be different this time around.

[Some_One]

On AP - Currently there is 1200 dollars available to back at 1.12-1 and 35 dollars available to back at 1.14-1. On the other side, 64 dollars available to lay at 1.18 and 104 dollars available to lay at 1.58-1

The other big two are at Frosted 4-1 & Materiality 5.8-1

[acorn54]

i think it's a bad betting race. i think in THAT race you have to bet alot to win alot and that is not my betting philosophy.
of course pharoah will be an underlay as the concept of "psychic income" kicks in, an accounting term where one get's more than a monetary value. the pharoah ticket will be a collector's piece if he should win

[Redboard]

This poll is now closed. The median odds being around 2-1, meaning AP has around a one in three shot on Saturday. I think it’s higher than that but , hey, the tribe has spoken.