60% chance of rain for the Belmont

[horses4courses]

Music to the ears of Bob Baffert and Ahmed Zayat

http://www.weather.com/weather/weekend/l/USNY0464:1:US

5 minutes after posting, it dropped to 60% from 80% :lol:
Stay tuned.

[mnmark]

Really ? 10 days before the race and your looking at a forecast.

[lamboguy]

Really ? 10 days before the race and your looking at a forecast.he might be trying to catch some of that 4/5 money on AP before it leaves the building

[castaway01]

Really ? 10 days before the race and your looking at a forecast.

Yeah, might be a bit early to write that one in stone.

[horses4courses]

Meteorologists are pretty good at their jobs these days.
Sure, it could change between now and then.
Just food for thought.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Rain or shine, 10-cent supers up the wazoo! WOOHOO!!!!

[tucker6]

Meteorologists are pretty good at their jobs these days.
Sure, it could change between now and then.
Just food for thought.
You're in Lake Tahoe. How hard could it be to forecast there. In NYC though, not so much.

[RXB]

Lake Tahoe's record high for May is 89 while the record low for May is 9. I think the weather forecasting there would come with its own challenges.

[horses4courses]

We're getting a mixed bag right now, alright.
Plenty of showers the past couple of weeks.
Starting to warm up a little now, though. :cool:

[bobphilo]

Really ? 10 days before the race and your looking at a forecast.

Predicting NY weather that far in advance is a crap shoot. Like they say, if you don't like the NY weather, just wait 10 minutes. With AP, track condition doesn't really matter much as he is much the best regardless of track condition, though he is more awesome in the slop.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Predicting NY weather that far in advance is a crap shoot. Like they say, if you don't like the NY weather, just wait 10 minutes. With AP, track condition doesn't really matter much as he is much the best regardless of track condition, though he is more awesome in the slop.

I think he gets his affinity for a wet track through Flying Paster.

[BlinkersOn]

Music to the ears of Bob Baffert and Ahmed Zayat

http://www.weather.com/weather/weekend/l/USNY0464:1:US

5 minutes after posting, it dropped to 60% from 80% :lol:
Stay tuned.

It says 20% chance of rain...sunny and warm. Where are you looking? I checked June 6th, and that's what it says. I'd say 81 degrees is looking pretty warm to me.

[horses4courses]

It says 20% chance of rain...sunny and warm. Where are you looking? I checked June 6th, and that's what it says. I'd say 81 degrees is looking pretty warm to me.

You have the correct forecast now.
If you click on the link in my first post in this thread,
it now says 20% chance of rain - down from as high as 80%.

Well, I never........ :eek:

[BlinkersOn]

:lol:

[bobphilo]

You have the correct forecast now.
If you click on the link in my first post in this thread,
it now says 20% chance of rain - down from as high as 80%.

Well, I never........ :eek:
Just shows how unpredictable NY weather is, especially with long term forecasts. Any prediction beyond a day or 2 is worthless. In any case AP runs well on any surface.

[Appy]

The way things have worked here at my place over the past few weeks, 20% chance is a lock to swim.

[BlinkersOn]

Just heard from a friend in NY that says it's supposed to rain all week....not good news for a great undercard, but good new for AP I would say.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Just heard from a friend in NY that says it's supposed to rain all week....not good news for a great undercard, but good new for AP I would say.

Yeah, it's raining here on and off right now. Supposed to clear a bit on Wednesday, comes back Thursday, cloudy on Friday and then AM showers on Saturday. Track will be wet. If it dries badly, it could be cuppy or even heavy.

[TJDave]

The reports I'm seeing call for the weather to deteriorate as the day progresses.

[delsully]

I think we are still a little too far out to be worrying about the weather.

[BlueChip@DRF]

The reports I'm seeing call for the weather to deteriorate as the day progresses.


Looks like one of those Empire Maker/Ruler On Ice Belmonts.

[pandy]

The track has been favoring closers for the past 10 days or so...Big Sandy tends to favor sustained types anyway but particularly when it's dry and there was a drought until today...the moisture from early this week alone should make the surface much fairer, and better overall for American Pharoah. More rain later in the week could also help him.

If memory serves me correct, I believe Victor Espinoza rode Orientate for Baffert in the Breeders Cup Juvenile at Belmont. The rail was dead that day, which was typical for Belmont in those days, and Victor went to the early lead on the rail and the horse tired.

[TJDave]

Looks like one of those Empire Maker/Ruler On Ice Belmonts.

I'd favor the latter. What did Ruler On Ice pay?

[BlueChip@DRF]

I'd favor the latter. What did Ruler On Ice pay?


He was the only one in the field that never lost ground from stretch to finish in all of his races prior to The Belmont.

He was 24/1
$51.50 $26.00 $13.60

[f2tornado]

I am a meteorologist and did not stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night. I even used to forecast for the NYSDOT amongst other jurisdictions. The GFS model suggests a relatively dry week beyond Tuesday including race day. The ECMWF has a bit more moisture this week including early Saturday morning but dry for the race. Timing can change a bit but at this point I'm forecasting a fast track. Will post if my mind changes.

5PM EDT Saturday...

http://www.plainschase.com/cards/belmont.gif

[BlueChip@DRF]

I am a meteorologist and did not stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night. I even used to forecast for the NYSDOT amongst other jurisdictions. The GFS model suggests a relatively dry week beyond Tuesday including race day. The ECMWF has a bit more moisture this week including early Saturday morning but dry for the race. Timing can change a bit but at this point I'm forecasting a fast track. Will post if my mind changes.

5PM EDT Saturday...

http://www.plainschase.com/cards/belmont.gif


Hey! Just like handicapping! :cool:

[pandy]

I am a meteorologist and did not stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night. I even used to forecast for the NYSDOT amongst other jurisdictions. The GFS model suggests a relatively dry week beyond Tuesday including race day. The ECMWF has a bit more moisture this week including early Saturday morning but dry for the race. Timing can change a bit but at this point I'm forecasting a fast track. Will post if my mind changes.

5PM EDT Saturday...

http://www.plainschase.com/cards/belmont.gif

Good news!

[Lemon Drop Husker]

I really hope we get good weather, because if AP wins, I don't want there to be a ton of naysayers ripping apart his Triple Crown run.

We've already heard the shaming of his wins in the Derby and Preakness, and if the Belmont comes up wet, there will be even more downplaying of his achievement.

I get the criticism of the 2 legs thus far, and can also see the criticism if we do indeed get a wet track Saturday. However I'd much rather concentrate on a TC winner for the first time in nearly 40 years, and the celebration of the horse and the accomplishment.than nitpicking away at how lucky the horse was or diminishing his TC wins because they weren't good enough.

[BlueChip@DRF]

I really hope we get good weather, because if AP wins, I don't want there to be a ton of naysayers ripping apart his Triple Crown run.

We've already heard the shaming of his wins in the Derby and Preakness, and if the Belmont comes up wet, there will be even more downplaying of his achievement.

I get the criticism of the 2 legs thus far, and can also see the criticism if we do indeed get a wet track Saturday. However I'd much rather concentrate on a TC winner for the first time in nearly 40 years, and the celebration of the horse and the accomplishment.than nitpicking away at how lucky the horse was or diminishing his TC wins because they weren't good enough.


He does have the name for it where it concerns crowns and title of king. :cool:

[horses4courses]

I really hope we get good weather, because if AP wins, I don't want there to be a ton of naysayers ripping apart his Triple Crown run.

We've already heard the shaming of his wins in the Derby and Preakness, and if the Belmont comes up wet, there will be even more downplaying of his achievement.

I get the criticism of the 2 legs thus far, and can also see the criticism if we do indeed get a wet track Saturday. However I'd much rather concentrate on a TC winner for the first time in nearly 40 years, and the celebration of the horse and the accomplishment.than nitpicking away at how lucky the horse was or diminishing his TC wins because they weren't good enough.

Which horses get their TC wins downplayed?

If American Pharoah manages to win on Saturday,
come rain or shine, let them criticize all they want.
It won't affect the record book one iota.

[delsully]

Which horses get their TC wins downplayed?

If American Pharoah manages to win on Saturday,
come rain or shine, let them criticize all they want.
It won't affect the record book one iota.

Agreed, you can only beat the horses in the gate! I read somewhere that he'll have beat the most challengers ever in the TC if he wins Sat.

[tucker6]

NWS in New York this morning:

...WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR CHANGES IN THE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...DECREASING POPS SOMEWHAT. ONLY LIGHT
RAIN IS FORECAST WITH THIS SYSTEM.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE ON FRIDAY...AND PUSH
THROUGH EARLY ON SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Track conditions/weather is going to be like the Palace Malice Belmont. Those bastards must have tweaked the track that day because it was all front runners winning and it is odd because the track favors front runners when it gets hot and fair when it cools down. :confused:

[horses4courses]

NWS in New York this morning:

...WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR CHANGES IN THE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...DECREASING POPS SOMEWHAT. ONLY LIGHT
RAIN IS FORECAST WITH THIS SYSTEM.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE ON FRIDAY...AND PUSH
THROUGH EARLY ON SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

I'm glad this is the case.
Always best to run in good weather, for both crowd and horses.

Time to put this thread to bed! ;)

[BlueChip@DRF]

NWS in New York this morning:

...WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR CHANGES IN THE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...DECREASING POPS SOMEWHAT. ONLY LIGHT
RAIN IS FORECAST WITH THIS SYSTEM.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE ON FRIDAY...AND PUSH
THROUGH EARLY ON SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

Slight chance? I just looked out the window - it's raining here in New York City.

More to come.....

[pandy]

on the radar it looks like it should be gone soon...fast track, but any moisture even this early is good for American Pharoah. Closer's, stalkers, and outside paths have had the advantage at Belmont for several weeks now. Rain sometimes evens things out and helps speed, but the track has not been kind to speed horses unless they have class.

[tucker6]

The track got 0.16 inches in 50 minutes at 6am. May be another 'slight chance' at a shower later this morning, but probably even less rain if they get it. With Belmont another 12 hours away, I cannot imagine this causing the track to be anything other than good or fast.

[BlueChip@DRF]

The track got 0.16 inches in 50 minutes at 6am. May be another 'slight chance' at a shower later this morning, but probably even less rain if they get it. With Belmont another 12 hours away, I cannot imagine this causing the track to be anything other than good or fast.

My concern is the Pick-4 races on turf with The Belmont as an anchor. I have two sets (one for firm and another for good-to-yielding) but only enough money to play one set.

[tucker6]

My concern is the Pick-4 races on turf with The Belmont as an anchor. I have two sets (one for firm and another for good-to-yielding) but only enough money to play one set.
How about playing a variant set? First couple races good to yielding and then tending to fast for later races?

[BlueChip@DRF]

How about playing a variant set? First couple races good to yielding and then tending to fast for later races?

I am going to make my bets at The Big M this morning and then I have to leave. I don't have the luxury of staying at a simulcast to study track biases throughout the day. Oh how I wish I could do that today.

[Redboard]

Main track looks dry. All eyes/will be on races 6,7 & 9. Especially the 12f 6th race. 11 horse field with plenty of speed and closers. Could be a preview.

[Redboard]

Fractions for Race 6

Looks like todays Brooklyn was more than a second faster than last years Belmont. So the worry that the track is "deeper" does not fly. I believe this race just might be a good preview.

Coach Inge(Favorite) hung on for the win, although the cheap speed, Call Me George(24-1), did fade.

Thoughts.



Todays Brooklyn(G2)
23.62
49.20
1:13.80
1:38.80
2:03.21
2:27.17
http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/BEL060615USA6.pdf

Last Years Belmont
24.06
48.52
1:12.84
1:37.13
2:02.43
2:28.52

[BlueChip@DRF]

How about the turf races?

[Redboard]

How about the turf races?

I have Photo Call this race, the 8th, but I haven't noticed anything different about the turf surface.

Hey, how about Johnny V saying that if AP wants the lead, he's going to have to come get it- a speed duel in the making? If we get half under 47, watch out.

I can't think he's serious. Materality, my pick, has the perfect post position. He can track just off the leaders who are inside of him. I'd be very surprised if he tried to pass the speed before the turn.