The Belmont Stakes: Which Horses Will Relish The Distance

[Bob S.]

In the Belmont Stakes, you have horses in which the further they run, the better they perform. There are other horses who succumb to the mile and a half distance. Here is my analysis:

http://regalbloodlines.com/2015/05/19/2015-belmont-stakes-pedigrees-which-horse-will-relish-the-12-furlongs/

[BlueChip@DRF]

Tale Of Verve. Not only bred, but also trained to go long.

[DeltaLover]

Tale Of Verve. Not only bred, but also trained to go long.

The wedding is already done... You know what I mean...

[BlueChip@DRF]

The wedding is already done... You know what I mean...

I was there for the wedding. I gave out the cold exacta.
I will be there for the funeral. Either way, it's a win/win for me.

[PhantomOnTour]

Madefromlucky is the one

[BlueChip@DRF]

Madefromlucky is the one

The wiseguy pick I think. Everyone must be going on last year's result.

[letswastemoney]

It will be more about race position for me. Keen Ice will be at the biggest disadvantage because I know he can't show speed even if he tried.

[ArlJim78]

Is it a stretch to say that every horse in the Belmont field is better bred for the distance than American Pharoah?

[f2tornado]

Is it a stretch to say that every horse in the Belmont field is better bred for the distance than American Pharoah?

Not at all, if it matters... AP has highest dosage index, second fewest dosage points, and tied with Conquest for highest center of distribution.

[Bob S.]

In my opinion, the horses with 12 furlong pedigrees are Keen Ice, Tale of Verve, Madefromlucky, Mubtaahij, and Frosted.

[RXB]

None of the North American bred horses have a 12f pedigree. A few of them have pedigrees that are okay for 10f, therefore they might possibly be less likely to expire quite as badly as the ones with miler pedigrees. (Pedigree ≠ Destiny)

Mubtaahij has the best pedigree for 12f but it's no slam dunk, plus of course there's a legitimate class question hanging over his head.

[ReplayRandall]

None of the North American bred horses have a 12f pedigree. A few of them have pedigrees that are okay for 10f, therefore they might possibly be less likely to expire quite as badly as the ones with miler pedigrees. (Pedigree ≠ Destiny)

Mubtaahij has the best pedigree for 12f but it's no slam dunk, plus of course there's a legitimate class question hanging over his head.
Workouts have been mediocre at best:

Mubtaahij (IRE)
05/24/2015 BEL 5F 1:03.16 Dirt Fast B
05/20/2015 BEL 4F :48.34 Dirt Fast B
05/17/2015 BEL 5F 1:01.11 Inner turf Firm B

[Rex Phinney]

You have to take the workouts and throw them out the window.

I don't care a single bit how fast a horse can go 4 or 5 furlongs, not for this race.

Commissioner last year was a perfect example, he was not a flashy horse, seemed outclassed and even went to the front when noone expected. All he had todo was last the 12f and he damn near won. I'm not discounting Madefromlucky. The fact that he kind of put it all together in the Peter Pan and it happened over this track is not lost on me.

A few years ago Union Rags too, he won at Belmont at two then lost 3 of his next 4 elsewhere, his breeding was not perfect for 12f, but they put him back on the Belmont dirt and voila.

[Let's Roll]

Workouts have been mediocre at best:

Mubtaahij (IRE)
05/24/2015 BEL 5F 1:03.16 Dirt Fast B
05/20/2015 BEL 4F :48.34 Dirt Fast B
05/17/2015 BEL 5F 1:01.11 Inner turf Firm B

I was in town and saw him on the 24th. He was schooled in the paddock for the entire renovation break, led around by the same rider and horse who worked in company. I was dissapointed to see that, treating this horse like a baby, he looked very passive and timid.
Did not see him dominate the other horse during the workout, not happy with the time at this late stage.....not impressed with the look of this fellow on the track.
Managed to see Tale of Verve galloping, he looked good.

[ReplayRandall]

You have to take the workouts and throw them out the window.

I don't care a single bit how fast a horse can go 4 or 5 furlongs, not for this race.
100% disagree......and is actually very bad advice for the Belmont. While you're at it Rex, you can throw YOUR bankroll out the window.. :bang:

[RXB]

I'm not a Mubtaahij backer, but we're discussing pedigree here rather than workouts or whatever.

[horses4courses]

The whole pedigree analysis thing is overrated, imo.
We have seen how these horses can run at least
several times so far this year, and that tells us much more
than a pedigree chart.

Granted, a horse with a completely speed-oriented family history,
would probably find the Belmont too high a mountain to climb.
Even if he/she could last out 10 furlongs, 12 furlongs is much harder.

The biggest strike against American Pharoah will be running
his fourth race in eight weeks. Add to this the fact that a leading
Belmont trainer, Todd Pletcher, will have multiple entries in the race
to do all that he possibly can to soften up the favorite.
Remember how Woody Stephens dominated the Belmont?
Pletcher is nowhere near that level in this race, but he is a top
trainer with a local advantage.

Should American Pharoah lose the Belmont, which is a strong possibility,
it won't be because of his pedigree. It will be because the Triple Crown
grind, and fatigue, factor has caught up to him.

I wish him well, and would love to see it happen,
but I have to say that I'm pretty skeptical.

[Rex Phinney]

100% disagree......and is actually very bad advice for the Belmont. While you're at it Rex, you can throw YOUR bankroll out the window.. :bang:

I throw workouts out the window all the time, we never have all the info we need to use the data.

How hard were they cranking on him? What was the trainer trying to accomplish? Was the horse having a good day? A bad day? Is this a horse capable of working fast and then racing fast too? Maybe he wants slow works to be ready for race day. Maybe he needs fast works to wake him up and get him ready. Most times we don;t know any of this.

How many times have we seen a horse coming off a 5f workout in 1:03+ win a race? More times than I can count that's for sure. You see that work on the PP toss the horse and it bites you right in the ass.

[horses4courses]

I throw workouts out the window all the time, we never have all the info we need to use the data.

How hard were they cranking on him? What was the trainer trying to accomplish? Was the horse having a good day? A bad day? Is this a horse capable of working fast and then racing fast too? Maybe he wants slow works to be ready for race day. Maybe he needs fast works to wake him up and get him ready. Most times we don;t know any of this.

How many times have we seen a horse coming off a 5f workout in 1:03+ win a race? More times than I can count that's for sure. You see that work on the PP toss the horse and it bites you right in the ass.

I agree with you, Rex.

Unless you watch the horse working out,
or can trust the opinion of someone who has,
the time (and description) listed for that work is meaningless.

A horse not working out regularly is a red flag.
Apart from that, the works listed in the PPs tell you nothing.

[Rex Phinney]

I agree with you, Rex.

Unless you watch the horse working out,
or can trust the opinion of someone who has,
the time (and description) listed for that work is meaningless.

A horse not working out regularly is a red flag.
Apart from that, the works listed in the PPs tell you nothing.

I do pay attention to the spacing of the works for sure. Once a week and no gaps of course, and hoping it hasn't been working for a year straight with no races.

I'll also consider the track he is working over, if I'm on the fence about a horse but he is working over the track I'm betting maybe I pull the trigger.

The longer the workouts the more I pay attention. When trainers throw a 6f work out there and the horse can do it in 1:12 I do like that. By contrast I can't bring myself to care that a horse did 3f in :35.

[ILovetheInner]

You have to know the trainer habits and patterns as well, in terms of workouts. We don't know this of Mubtaahij's trainer, do we? Those three clocks spanned seven days, so I don't know what one would expect? Although I know he has received some negative clocker comments. A little contrary to what the assistant is saying. Make of it all what you will, but I won't assess anything until the final preparations are in.

I don't know who "relishes" twelve furlongs these days, but some can handle it. I respect anything with the pedigree for it trained by Pletcher....people spend so much time justifibaly laughing at his Derby stats that they lose sight of his way better averages in the Belmont.

[pandy]

Workouts have been mediocre at best:

Mubtaahij (IRE)
05/24/2015 BEL 5F 1:03.16 Dirt Fast B
05/20/2015 BEL 4F :48.34 Dirt Fast B
05/17/2015 BEL 5F 1:01.11 Inner turf Firm B

Hard to really know unless you've actually seen the workouts. And in New York, the horses, generally speaking, don't work as fast as they do in So. Cal. If anything three works in a week indicate that the trainer is using these works to help get his horse fit because he knows that this is a race where you need a horse that is dead fit.

[ReplayRandall]

Hard to really know unless you've actually seen the workouts. And in New York, the horses, generally speaking, don't work as fast as they do in So. Cal. If anything three works in a week indicate that the trainer is using these works to help get his horse fit because he knows that this is a race where you need a horse that is dead fit.
First, read Let's Roll's post #15 which verifies my "mediocre" work comments. I was in town and saw him on the 24th. He was schooled in the paddock for the entire renovation break, led around by the same rider and horse who worked in company. I was dissapointed to see that, treating this horse like a baby, he looked very passive and timid.
Did not see him dominate the other horse during the workout, not happy with the time at this late stage.....not impressed with the look of this fellow on the track.


Next, let's take a look at a few other contenders recent works for comparison:

Materiality 05/22/2015 BEL 5F 1:00.04 Dirt Fast B
Frosted 05/22/2015 BEL 5F 1:01.45 Dirt Fast B
Conquest Curlinate 05/22/2015 CD 5F :59.80 Dirt Fast B
Carpe Diem 05/22/2015 BEL 5F :59.01 Dirt Fast B
Madefromlucky 05/22/2015 BEL 5F :59.01 Dirt Fast B

Mubtaahij (IRE) 05/24/2015 BEL 5F 1:03.16 Dirt Fast B

In conclusion, it appears I was generous in my comments toward Mubtaahij's works as being mediocre. In fact, they are substandard and is a toss, from the top two spots, for betting purposes, IMHO...

[castaway01]

I doubt he's fast enough to win, but maybe Frammento to hit the board at 50-1 or whatever he'll be? I think he'll get the pace setup he needs, he's been pointed to the race (since he failed in other races, but still.. ;) .), and Zito has done well in the Belmont. If he clunks up for third and Pharaoh doesn't fire, you'd get paid quite well.

Again, we're talking a big longshot here, but you never know in this race.

[Tall One]

Still have to give some more thought to chucking him out of the bottom, but that 5f move time and less than glowing comments are a concern.

[Rex Phinney]

In conclusion, it appears I was generous in my comments toward Mubtaahij's works as being mediocre. In fact, they are substandard and is a toss, from the top two spots, for betting purposes, IMHO...

None of us know what the horses normal work habits are. None of us know what this trainer usually does with his horses. Did you notice that one of the works was over the turf?

Nothing this horse does in his works could change my outlook on him. I can't expect to understand the works they come from a different world than I'm accustom to.

I'll play him to hit the board based on his breeding and prior runs

[pandy]

If the local professional clockers are giving his works bad grades, that's certainly not a good sign. However, I've seen many, many horses win races, including major stakes races, after getting less than stellar grades from the professional clockers. A lot depends on the horse, for instance, is the horse normally a lackluster worker? You would really have to have seen him in Dubai prior to his big win and compare how he worked then to now to have a good evaluation.

But, certainly low or average graded works can be used to eliminate horses if you feel strongly that workouts are a very important handicapping angle.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Funny that this country would allow Lasix and Bute, but not a naturally mixed feed.

[horses4courses]

Thank goodness there are handicappers around that
dismiss horses from their consideration due to work times.

What if the horse is not being asked to run, is under a
stranglehold from a strong rider, and/or is carrying
20 lbs plus in extra saddle weight designed to slow him down?

There are too many unknowns when it comes to published works.
Sometimes you have to dig a little deeper, or take them with a grain of salt.

[ReplayRandall]

Thank goodness there are handicappers around that
dismiss horses from their consideration due to work times.

What if the horse is not being asked to run, is under a
stranglehold from a strong rider, and/or is carrying
20 lbs plus in extra saddle weight designed to slow him down?

There are too many unknowns when it comes to published works.
Sometimes you have to dig a little deeper, or take them with a grain of salt.
H4C, sometimes, and this is one of those times, you have no clue and context of what you're talking about. However, there are times when your posts are spot-on, and NOT because I agree with them. You're one of the few posters who makes me laugh and wince at the same time... :cool:

[horses4courses]

H4C, sometimes, and this is one of those times, you have no clue and context of what you're talking about. However, there are times when your posts are spot-on, and NOT because I agree with them. You're one of the few posters who makes me laugh and wince at the same time... :cool:

That is my take on published works, and I'll stick to it.

I do subscribe to a couple of clockers, and I find it invaluable.

[ReplayRandall]

That is my take on published works, and I'll stick to it.

I do subscribe to a couple of clockers, and I find it invaluable.
:ThmbUp:

[Bennie]

I used Mubtaahji in some Derby bets and will use him underneath is some wagers in the Belmont but waiting to see if they start to "crank him up" a little more as we get closer to race day. If his works pick up in the next few times out, I might move him up a little but if they stay the same will probably only use him in the 3rd and 4th spots of my supers. Like many others, my key horses will be American and Frosted so I will need some "prices" underneath to make it worth while.

[LemonSoupKid]

I hear that Bennie ... agree, will mainly be playing against AP with Frosted.

Did you guys know that Afleet Alex was the last Belmont winner to run in the Preakness? Of the last 9 races, 5 went alternate, 4 skipped (Jazil, Summer Bird, Union Rags and Palace Malice) after running the Derby.

[BlueChip@DRF]

The Truth Or Else has been entered and has Edgar Prado aboard. Definitely worth a look.