Can American Pharoah Get the Mile and a Half

[barn32]

I'm not to up on horse racing these days. If this has been discussed elsewhere my apologies.

I just have one question:

Can American Pharoah get the mile and a half? I mean isn't that what it all boils down to? Some horses just can't get that distance, especially coming back to do it in three weeks.

Can AP get the mile and a half?

[thaskalos]

Anerican Pharoah will be in dire need of an oxygen tank during that last quarter-mile, in my opinion.

[horses4courses]

He can't be used early like he was at Pimlico.
That would kill him over 12 furlongs.

If he's not too pressured for a mile, and these last two races
haven't flattened him, that kick of his at about the 3/8ths pole
should win him the TC.

I don't think his opposition is as good as he is.
Maybe, it's a weak crop again this year.
That won't matter if we get another TC winner.

[Rex Phinney]

He can't be used early like he was at Pimlico.
That would kill him over 12 furlongs.

If he's not too pressured for a mile, and these last two races
haven't flattened him, that kick of his at about the 3/8ths pole
should win him the TC.

I don't think his opposition is as good as he is.
Maybe, it's a weak crop again this year.
That won't matter if we get another TC winner.

To your point specifically about the crop of 3YO what have we really seen of some of them? We know how horses can get lost in the shuffle of the Derby and so many of them were not in the Preakness. I'm looking at horses like Frosted, Materiality, Madefromlucky and Muhtaajib and thinking we haven't yet seen the best bullet they can fire.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Yes. American Pharaoh can get 12 furlongs. In 2:32.2

[horses4courses]

I'm looking at horses like Frosted, Materiality, Madefromlucky and Muhtaajib and thinking we haven't yet seen the best bullet they can fire.

I'm all for it :ThmbUp:

[Kash$]

Can any horse in the Belmont get 12f?

[letswastemoney]

It's a guess whether he gets 12 furlongs or not without any 12 furlong form on his record. But, he will be overbet.

[beefas]

I think (tale of verve ) can run this 12f very well and he will be there fighting frosted for the win!!

[davew]

if he can take a break and coast for the middle third (like the Preakness), no one will be able to catch him

[Tall One]

I think (tale of verve ) can run this 12f very well and he will be there fighting frosted for the win!!


His connections werent exactly hiding thier opinion if he can get the 1 1/2.. :)

[tanner12oz]

Tale of verve can get like 9 miles according to Dallas....

AP will be sucking wind and another triple crown attempt will go down in flames

[Robert Fischer]

He's a top quality horse, and he is relaxed on the backstretch, and he's fundamentally sound, and he has the best trainer.

He probably has the best stamina at race speed, other than some horse who stays out of the fray early and makes a late bid who may pass him after the wire.

Still, I think the biggest threat would be Materiality, or someone similar, setting a fast pace and drawing AP into it, bringing in room for jockey error and stress.

If AP gets a good trip and a well timed move, he's likely to be the only one running late.

[highnote]

Any horse can get 12 furlongs. It's a matter of how fast they can run it.

First, there is doubt that he will run 12f fast enough to win because he (and the rest of the bunch) has never done it before.

Second, genetically, with a Dosage Index of 4.33, AP's pedigree suggests he is bred for shorter distances. Since 1940 only six horses with a dosage index of 4.00 or greater have won the Belmont Stakes.

http://chef-de-race.com/dosage/classics/belmont_dosage.htm

AP only has 8 Dosage points in his profile which suggests that he doesn't have a lot of great, prepotent sires in his pedigree. (Secretariat has 50 Dosage points in his profile!) Perhaps, in time, as his sire and grandsires produce more winners the stamina that his ancestors pass on to their offspring will become better understood. Until then, we can only guess or assume that his Dosage of 4.33 is relatively close to being correct.

Baffert is one of the great trainers. This will surely help.

I wouldn't bet against AP, but I also wouldn't be surprised to see a horse with more stamina in his pedigree beat him.

[BlueChip@DRF]

I think (tale of verve ) can run this 12f very well and he will be there fighting frosted for the win!!

I'm boxing that exacta. :cool:

[Tor Ekman]

AP will fade just enough to be nailed at the wire, and the irony will be that it's Desormeaux with a perfect ride on Keen Ice as the "villain" who denies AP the Triple Crown

[ArlJim78]

As much as I'd love to see it happen, the closer I look at it the shakier I think his chances are at 12 furlongs. The extra 2 furlongs may be what ends up erasing his other advantages.
He can do it but I think he needs a nice soft pace and the his margin for error may not be very great at all.
Frosted is the one that would concern me most.

[PhantomOnTour]

Madefromlucky is the one, esp if Pletcher's two other speed types stay in the race.
The game plan is obvious.

This colt's pedigree is fantastic for the Belmont, he has enough speed to lay within striking distance, stablemates keep Pharoah busy for a mile or so...grinding type runner can get it done.

[Tom]

I think he could get 12 furlongs with me riding him! :eek:

[classhandicapper]

I'm not a big fan of horses that show sprint caliber early speed also trying to get 12 furlongs. Not many horses have both that level of brilliance and that level of stamina (Seattle Slew was one).

If we wins, I think it's going to be crawlfest late where he outlasts other horses that also don't want 12F.

If he wins big and finishes strongly then I think we need to start throwing around the word "great".

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Frosted and Materiality were probably running the best late in the Derby, and they came from nowhereville in the Derby after some soft fractions up front.

Madefromlucky, Frammento, Keen Ice, Mubtaahij, and Tale of Verve can all also be factors. Even Carpe could rebound off of a massively disappointing Derby.

A lot of quality horses have waited to take their shot at AP here again. He is going to get as stern a test as any that have failed over the last near 40 years.

[ronsmac]

I'm not a big fan of horses that show sprint caliber early speed also trying to get 12 furlongs. Not many horses have both that level of brilliance and that level of stamina (Seattle Slew was one).

If we wins, I think it's going to be crawlfest late where he outlasts other horses that also don't want 12F.

If he wins big and finishes strongly then I think we need to start throwing around the word "great".People are already throwing around the word great, even if they don't realize they're saying it yet.