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View Full Version : Rolling Pick 4's (Oh No...)


FlintAtTheFetlock
05-19-2015, 03:48 PM
I see Presque Isle now has rolling pick 4's. This is one of my favorite bets but I don't think this is good trend, interested in others opinions. These are hard to hit but when one comes in you usually get a decent return. I have to think most people can't chase this wager more than once or twice per card, and now the money will be spread across 5 + separate pools watering things down. This does not make sense to me especially at a minor track. Perhaps with the action so spread these could occasionally carryover or would they pay 3 or 4? I don't get it.

Is this the wave of the future or will it be a misguided experiment?

thaskalos
05-19-2015, 03:55 PM
It's a misguided experiment guaranteed to lead to tiny betting pools and meager payouts. When you hit a pick-4, you expect to get paid something...even if the folks at Presque Isle seem to hold a different opinion.

HalvOnHorseracing
05-19-2015, 07:27 PM
I see Presque Isle now has rolling pick 4's. This is one of my favorite bets but I don't think this is good trend, interested in others opinions. These are hard to hit but when one comes in you usually get a decent return. I have to think most people can't chase this wager more than once or twice per card, and now the money will be spread across 5 + separate pools watering things down. This does not make sense to me especially at a minor track. Perhaps with the action so spread these could occasionally carryover or would they pay 3 or 4? I don't get it.

Is this the wave of the future or will it be a misguided experiment?

I did an article on my blog called Betting Menus Approach Cheesecake Factory Size. Obviously the number of wagers offered should be dependent on making sure each pool is large enough to ensure a ensure a fair pay. The pick-4, for example should pay at least the parlay plus a premium to account for not having to pay the take four times. I also favored the elimination of the show bet and replacing it with the Euro style place-show pool. I favored eliminating quinellas and having only exactas. I think the danger is that tracks are cannibalizing their own pools. It isn't like people are passing a pick-4 somewhere else to bet it at PID. I'd bet the daily handle is not going up with the addition of more betting pools. The tracks are somehow deluding themselves into believing that adding pools will increase handle, when the more likely outcome is that it will dilute other pools. Every race should have win, place/show, exacta and trifecta. Races with more than 8 starters should have supers with a minimum $1 bet to ensure larger payoffs. There can be two pick-4's a day, rolling pick-3's and DD's if the track handle is sufficiently large. Pick-5's and pick-6's should only be offered at the largest venues. I think tracks would do better by building up some of the non-lottery pools. I think the lottery pools are great for the highly capitalized bettors, but it is increasingly hard for the average player to compete against them and the rebate whales in the lottery pools. Professionals may tend to focus on those pools but unless you're making a living at the track you can make a dandy profit with win, exacta, tri, super, and the smaller picks.

horses4courses
05-19-2015, 08:10 PM
It all comes down to handle, and the size of those PK4 pools.
There is no way a track like PID could sustain multiple PK4s.
I doubt that any track could.

The only days it might have a shot would be on BC days,
and on the three TC race days.

Augenj
05-19-2015, 08:23 PM
I did an article on my blog called Betting Menus Approach Cheesecake Factory Size. Obviously the number of wagers offered should be dependent on making sure each pool is large enough to ensure a ensure a fair pay. The pick-4, for example should pay at least the parlay plus a premium to account for not having to pay the take four times. I also favored the elimination of the show bet and replacing it with the Euro style place-show pool. I favored eliminating quinellas and having only exactas. I think the danger is that tracks are cannibalizing their own pools. It isn't like people are passing a pick-4 somewhere else to bet it at PID. I'd bet the daily handle is not going up with the addition of more betting pools. The tracks are somehow deluding themselves into believing that adding pools will increase handle, when the more likely outcome is that it will dilute other pools. Every race should have win, place/show, exacta and trifecta. Races with more than 8 starters should have supers with a minimum $1 bet to ensure larger payoffs. There can be two pick-4's a day, rolling pick-3's and DD's if the track handle is sufficiently large. Pick-5's and pick-6's should only be offered at the largest venues. I think tracks would do better by building up some of the non-lottery pools. I think the lottery pools are great for the highly capitalized bettors, but it is increasingly hard for the average player to compete against them and the rebate whales in the lottery pools. Professionals may tend to focus on those pools but unless you're making a living at the track you can make a dandy profit with win, exacta, tri, super, and the smaller picks.
Well stated. :ThmbUp:

DeltaLover
05-19-2015, 10:57 PM
I did an article on my blog called Betting Menus Approach Cheesecake Factory Size. Obviously the number of wagers offered should be dependent on making sure each pool is large enough to ensure a ensure a fair pay. The pick-4, for example should pay at least the parlay plus a premium to account for not having to pay the take four times. I also favored the elimination of the show bet and replacing it with the Euro style place-show pool. I favored eliminating quinellas and having only exactas. I think the danger is that tracks are cannibalizing their own pools. It isn't like people are passing a pick-4 somewhere else to bet it at PID. I'd bet the daily handle is not going up with the addition of more betting pools. The tracks are somehow deluding themselves into believing that adding pools will increase handle, when the more likely outcome is that it will dilute other pools. Every race should have win, place/show, exacta and trifecta. Races with more than 8 starters should have supers with a minimum $1 bet to ensure larger payoffs. There can be two pick-4's a day, rolling pick-3's and DD's if the track handle is sufficiently large. Pick-5's and pick-6's should only be offered at the largest venues. I think tracks would do better by building up some of the non-lottery pools. I think the lottery pools are great for the highly capitalized bettors, but it is increasingly hard for the average player to compete against them and the rebate whales in the lottery pools. Professionals may tend to focus on those pools but unless you're making a living at the track you can make a dandy profit with win, exacta, tri, super, and the smaller picks.

Good posting :ThmbUp:

taxicab
05-19-2015, 11:50 PM
PID's pools are extremely small to begin with.
They might be the first track in history to payout for 1 out of 4 if they pull the trigger on the rollers.

thespaah
05-20-2015, 08:15 AM
I see Presque Isle now has rolling pick 4's. This is one of my favorite bets but I don't think this is good trend, interested in others opinions. These are hard to hit but when one comes in you usually get a decent return. I have to think most people can't chase this wager more than once or twice per card, and now the money will be spread across 5 + separate pools watering things down. This does not make sense to me especially at a minor track. Perhaps with the action so spread these could occasionally carryover or would they pay 3 or 4? I don't get it.

Is this the wave of the future or will it be a misguided experiment?
I see your point. I agree. PID is diluting the product.
The rate of winning favs at these smaller tracks is higher than average already.
with a rolling 50 cent or even a $1 pick 4 will produce payoffs rarely exceeding $100.....I cite the issues at the harness tracks that allow P4 wagering.
I also can point to Finger lakes. There is a FL Chalk fest thread that points out very low payoffs for that track's P4

castaway01
05-20-2015, 08:24 AM
I see your point. I agree. PID is diluting the product.
The rate of winning favs at these smaller tracks is higher than average already.
with a rolling 50 cent or even a $1 pick 4 will produce payoffs rarely exceeding $100.....I cite the issues at the harness tracks that allow P4 wagering.
I also can point to Finger lakes. There is a FL Chalk fest thread that points out very low payoffs for that track's P4

The main issue, and it's a big one, is that the rolling Pick 4 will severely limit the upside potential when you get some longshots in the Pick 4 but the pool is only $1500. If you can't win a lot by betting a little, there's no reason to play the bet.

Fox
05-21-2015, 01:47 PM
Maybe they should start with a rolling double first.

thaskalos
05-21-2015, 01:49 PM
Maybe they should start with a rolling double first.
NICE! :) :ThmbUp:

FlintAtTheFetlock
05-27-2015, 08:33 AM
I checked in on yesterday's 5/26 pick 4 payouts at PID and here they are based on $1.

$948.30 5-7-7-5 (4 Correct)
$2,132.90 7-7-5-4 (4 Correct)
$1,224.40 7-5-4-3 (4 Correct)
$323.70 5-4-3-5 (4 Correct)

This is better than I expected with some small fields and only one big long shot 14-1. My typical pick 4 scores are not dissimilar, but I agree it could be a big letdown if you have a couple bombs and still bring in less than $1000.00 on 50 cents.

I'll dip my toe in and target series that hold the most upside, until I get insulted with meager payouts.

AndyC
05-27-2015, 01:39 PM
I checked in on yesterday's 5/26 pick 4 payouts at PID and here they are based on $1.

$948.30 5-7-7-5 (4 Correct)
$2,132.90 7-7-5-4 (4 Correct)
$1,224.40 7-5-4-3 (4 Correct)
$323.70 5-4-3-5 (4 Correct)

This is better than I expected with some small fields and only one big long shot 14-1. My typical pick 4 scores are not dissimilar, but I agree it could be a big letdown if you have a couple bombs and still bring in less than $1000.00 on 50 cents.

I'll dip my toe in and target series that hold the most upside, until I get insulted with meager payouts.

First P-4 had $16K pool. Most of the others were considerably below $10K. Don't dive too deep into these pools.

LottaKash
05-27-2015, 02:48 PM
Maybe they should start with a rolling double first.

I have always wished that would happen..."Rolling Doubles"...

That would become the main-focus of my wagering, I think...