2015 Belmont Stakes - you make the morning line

[horses4courses]

Here are the probables for the Belmont (per DRF Jay Privman)

Care to take a stab at the morning line?
Here's mine:

American Pharoah 4-5

Frosted 5-1

Materiality 6-1

Carpe Diem 12-1

Mubtaahij 15-1

Madefromlucky 15-1

Tale of Verve 20-1

Keen Ice 30-1

Conquest Curlinate 30-1

Frammento 50-1

War Story 50-1

[RacingFan1992]

10 Horses? I have Madefromlucky winning the Belmont Stakes.

[DeltaLover]

Here are the probables for the Belmont (per DRF Jay Privman)

Care to take a stab at the morning line?
Here's mine:

American Pharoah 4-5

Frosted 5-1

Materiality 6-1

Carpe Diem 12-1

Mubtaahij 15-1

Madefromlucky 15-1

Tale of Verve 20-1

Keen Ice 30-1

Conquest Curlinate 30-1

Frammento 50-1

War Story 50-1

The following is a line that was spawned by my model:

http://i62.tinypic.com/a4tyis.png

[horses4courses]

I don't see how your odds correlate to win percentage.

From your odds line, I would get the following %:

55, 14, 12, 9, 8, 6.5, 6.5, and 3.5 on each of the last four.

What am I missing?

[DeltaLover]

I don't see how your odds correlate to win percentage.

From your odds line, I would get the following %:

55, 14, 12, 9, 8, 6.5, 6.5, and 3.5 on each of the last four.

What am I missing?

Odds are calculated after applying a 15% take out (not similarly to the way M/L is calculated)

[horses4courses]

Odds are calculated after applying a 15% take out (not similarly to the way M/L is calculated)

Well, we're in the same ballpark.
Tale Of Verve is the only sizable difference.

[DeltaLover]

Well, we're in the same ballpark.


Obviously.

I think this is pretty much the "correct" line.. Things might change during the remaining time but I do not expect anything dramatic..

My early thoughts are that Materiality , Frosted , Carpe Diem will be overbet. I am very sceptic about the chances of the three of them.. Maybe one of the longest shots can present some betting value...

This will be my very first time ever to back a Triple Crown possibility and I (want to!) believe this time we will have one!

[cnollfan]

Are we looking for a morning line that will duplicate the Belmont morning line, or one that will duplicate the final odds? I think American Pharoah will go to post no higher than 0.50-1.

[charm city whizz]

Might be off topic but If AP wins he'll pay more to place then to win, 100% fact

[DeltaLover]

Are we looking for a morning line that will duplicate the Belmont morning line, or one that will duplicate the final odds? I think American Pharoah will go to post no higher than 0.50-1.

My lines are trying to simulate the crowd and not the M/L maker

[DeltaLover]

Might be off topic but If AP wins he'll pay more to place then to win, 100% fact

Obviously you refer to the two dollar souvenir win tix.. I still do not think this will be the case

[davew]

I think Mubtaahij will close at under 10/1

ran better in Derby than result would indicate because of so many horses and early traffic

[horses4courses]

Are we looking for a morning line that will duplicate the Belmont morning line, or one that will duplicate the final odds?

I would say both.

[lamboguy]

i think the most interesting thing for the Belmont with be which horse Joel Rosario rides. i haven't heard if he has signed on to either horse yet. with MATERIALITY running that would hypothetically improve the chances of FROSTED to chase down the pace.

to me the problem with handicapping this race is how much weight you give the Preakness in the slop and how you evaluate the internal fractions of AMERICAN PHAROAH.

because i like to look at things on the bright side, i am going to make those fractions as being legitamate. i will pay close attention to CJ and his timeform appraisal to come up with more clues on wednesday. i suspect everyone here are on the edge of their seats waiting for 12:30 wednesday on TVG to hear what he has to say about the Preakness. it will be very interesting to see how he rates the Preakness compared to The Sir Barton Stakes.

[Dahoss2002]

corresponding to their odds, Carp Diem 12-1 and War Story 50-1 , might need a little adjustment given the rest of the field

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Would love to get 50/1 on the "no chancer" Zito trained colt in the Belmont.

[horses4courses]

Would love to get 50/1 on the "no chancer" Zito trained colt in the Belmont.

He's a nice colt, but he lacks speed.
He may go off lower than 50-1, though, you're right.

[charm city whizz]

Obviously you refer to the two dollar souvenir win tix.. I still do not think this will be the case

Not really cuz of the $2 win tickets, I don't think smarty jones was buried with $2 win tix it was before all these eBay presales on $2 win tix

I saw a item on eBay it was a lot of 2000 $2 win tickets

The place and show pool will be ignored on AP in the Belmont

[horses4courses]

The place and show pool will be ignored on AP in the Belmont

He won't be completely ignored, but may offer a little value compared to win.

I'll be surprised if there is much "bridgejumping" in the show pool.
In a race like the Belmont, AP can either win easily, or be off the board.

While finishing off the board is unlikely for AP, you never know.

[thespaah]

I think Mubtaahij will close at under 10/1

ran better in Derby than result would indicate because of so many horses and early traffic
Closers just don't do well at Belmont. Especially in routes.
As much as I was impressed with Mubtaahj in Dubai and his late kick in the Derby, I don't see a pace where it would be conducive to a closer first under the line.
I would however no leave that one out of my vertical bets.
Ahh I just re read your post. "Close" at less than 10-1....I get it...Closing odds.
However I still stand by my analysis of the horse's potential performance.

[thespaah]

Pletcher will have at least three. Zito may have two going to the gate....These guys prep their horses as well as anyone in the business.
If AP wins two weeks from this Saturday, it will be a large accomplishment.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Pletcher will have at least three. Zito may have two going to the gate....These guys prep their horses as well as anyone in the business.
If AP wins two weeks from this Saturday, it will be a large accomplishment.

Who is the other Zito horse?

[thespaah]

Who is the other Zito horse?
I read an article in bloodhorse.....
Here it is....http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/unlocking-winners-handicapping/archive/2015/05/18/meet-the-belmont-stakes-contenders.aspx
I misunderstood the wording...Thought when I read it the first time Zito HAS two pointed to the Belmont. It says Zito WON two Belmonts that happened to be TC Spoilers.
Sorry.

[horses4courses]

American Pharoah 4-5

Frosted 4-1

Materiality 5-1

Madefromlucky 10-1

Mubtaahij 15-1

Tale of Verve 15-1

Keen Ice 20-1

Frammento 30-1

[DeltaLover]

The place and show pool will be ignored on AP in the Belmont

Is there any particular reason for this?