Closed out a 9 team parlay today [Archive] - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

ManU918

05-19-2015, 05:56 AM

Congrats ManU. :ThmbUp:

Wish i was able to bet on Ameican sports, i live in a country however that frowns on betting even though all their major sports leagues are mostly surviving on illegal betting and some legal betting in Vegas. Pretty ironic.

Thanks but I don't understand your response. You have plenty of options as an American. I've been using an offshore for years and have never once had a problem.

ManU918

05-19-2015, 05:57 AM

nice hit!

i have to admit, i couldn't pick one game right, and you picked 9!

Thanks. Every blind squirrel finds a nut or nine every now and then.

ManU918

05-19-2015, 06:04 AM

That's awesome. You can afford a lot of losers after a hit like that.

Thanks. A lot of $50 parlay losers...yes... but not a lot of large single wager losers.

Stillriledup

05-19-2015, 06:34 AM

Thanks but I don't understand your response. You have plenty of options as an American. I've been using an offshore for years and have never once had a problem.

I was under the impression that American's couldn't sign up for services like Betfair, Pinnacle, etc. Do these places embrace American residents? Does everyone in America have a Pinnacle or Betfair account except me?

ManU918

05-19-2015, 06:56 AM

I was under the impression that American's couldn't sign up for services like Betfair, Pinnacle, etc. Do these places embrace American residents? Does everyone in America have a Pinnacle or Betfair account except me?

Pinnacle and Betfair are unavailable to Americans. Everyone I know uses 5Dimes or Bookmaker. Both are rated as A+ books and are available to players in the states.

Stillriledup

05-19-2015, 07:04 AM

Pinnacle and Betfair are unavailable to Americans. Everyone I know uses 5Dimes or Bookmaker. Both are rated as A+ books and are available to players in the states.

so i dont understand if its perfectly legal for americans to bet with these places, why would betfair and pinnacle not be involved?

ManU918

05-19-2015, 07:20 AM

so i dont understand if its perfectly legal for americans to bet with these places, why would betfair and pinnacle not be involved?

Betfair doesn't allow players to bet sports offshore because they have a presence in the United States with TVG and the online Jersey casino. If sports betting does get legalized in the USA, Betfair will then be a one stop shop in the United States (Horse Racing, Sports, Casino).

The other companies like Bookmaker and 5Dimes aren't ever going to get a chance to do business in the United States because of their offshore operations and allowing players from the US to partake.

Look at Party Poker for example... When the wire act was signed in 2006 Party Poker was the largest poker site in the states. Because of the act they then went on to seize operations in the United States. Because they did that once online poker was legalized in Jersey they had no problem securing whatever business licenses they needed to get up and running. The same will go for Betfair and sports. Once sports is legalized in Jersey or wherever else, they will hold a significant amount of the market share. I'm sure Pinnacle has a similar plan.

horses4courses

05-19-2015, 10:33 AM

so i dont understand if its perfectly legal for americans to bet with these places, why would betfair and pinnacle not be involved?

The owners/directors of offshore books like 5dimes, Bookmaker, Bovada,
risk arrest when, and if, they set foot in US territory.
They are illegal operations with regard to US law.
That's why legal operations such as Pinnacle, Betfair, William Hill, etc.,
quickly decided way back to play by the rules, and not take US customers.

That hasn't stopped the illegal outfits from doing plenty of business
with US customers.
They have established a pretty good reputation for payment of winnings,
and they offer a good product online.

Maybe ManU918 can help me out here. (Nice hit, btw!)
Have you done all your offshore wagering through computer websites?
The reason I ask is that cellphones are all the rage these days.
I'm wondering how much phone business they can do, and
whether they have apps for smartphones yet?

If they're using the same technology that the major outfits
throughout the world have, then their business must be growing
at a huge rate. The US sports betting market is the Holy Grail.

Funny the difference now in a bar in the UK, or Ireland, these days
when a big soccer match is on tv. Used to see a mainly male audience
drinking and cheering along with the play.
They're still watching and drinking - except nowadays most of them
are betting throughout the game with their phones. Pretty comical.

I just tried the bookmaker.com website and was directed to some
funky poker forum. 5dimes and Bovada seem to work fine.

horses4courses

05-19-2015, 11:00 AM

The owners/directors of offshore books like 5dimes, Bookmaker, Bovada,
risk arrest when, and if, they set foot in US territory.
They are illegal operations with regard to US law.
That's why legal operations such as Pinnacle, Betfair, William Hill, etc.,
quickly decided way back to play by the rules, and not take US customers.

That hasn't stopped the illegal outfits from doing plenty of business
with US customers.
They have established a pretty good reputation for payment of winnings,
and they offer a good product online.

Maybe ManU918 can help me out here. (Nice hit, btw!)
Have you done all your offshore wagering through computer websites?
The reason I ask is that cellphones are all the rage these days.
I'm wondering how much phone business they can do, and
whether they have apps for smartphones yet?

If they're using the same technology that the major outfits
throughout the world have, then their business must be growing
at a huge rate. The US sports betting market is the Holy Grail.

Funny the difference now in a bar in the UK, or Ireland, these days
when a big soccer match is on tv. Used to see a mainly male audience
drinking and cheering along with the play.
They're still watching and drinking - except nowadays most of them
are betting throughout the game with their phones. Pretty comical.

I just tried the bookmaker.com website and was directed to some
funky poker forum. 5dimes and Bovada seem to work fine.

I just answered my own question about the phone apps.
Bovada has it, and I'm sure if they do, the other offshores have it, too.

Good to see you back, ManU918.
Keep hitting those parlays!

ManU918

05-19-2015, 11:35 AM

The owners/directors of offshore books like 5dimes, Bookmaker, Bovada,
risk arrest when, and if, they set foot in US territory.
They are illegal operations with regard to US law.
That's why legal operations such as Pinnacle, Betfair, William Hill, etc.,
quickly decided way back to play by the rules, and not take US customers.

That hasn't stopped the illegal outfits from doing plenty of business
with US customers.
They have established a pretty good reputation for payment of winnings,
and they offer a good product online.

Maybe ManU918 can help me out here. (Nice hit, btw!)
Have you done all your offshore wagering through computer websites?
The reason I ask is that cellphones are all the rage these days.
I'm wondering how much phone business they can do, and
whether they have apps for smartphones yet?

If they're using the same technology that the major outfits
throughout the world have, then their business must be growing
at a huge rate. The US sports betting market is the Holy Grail.

Funny the difference now in a bar in the UK, or Ireland, these days
when a big soccer match is on tv. Used to see a mainly male audience
drinking and cheering along with the play.
They're still watching and drinking - except nowadays most of them
are betting throughout the game with their phones. Pretty comical.

I just tried the bookmaker.com website and was directed to some
funky poker forum. 5dimes and Bovada seem to work fine.

- The bookmaker site is actually bookmaker.eu not bookmaker.com
- All of the sites are responsive (Built to be used on a phone). I would say I put about 80% of my bets in through my phone.
-Do you live in Europe? If so, which part?

horses4courses

05-19-2015, 11:54 AM

- The bookmaker site is actually bookmaker.eu not bookmaker.com
- All of the sites are responsive (Built to be used on a phone). I would say I put about 80% of my bets in through my phone.
-Do you live in Europe? If so, which part?

No, I live in California.
Grew up in Ireland, and travel back there fairly often.

Rutgers

05-19-2015, 04:17 PM

Congrats ManU. :ThmbUp:

Wish i was able to bet on Ameican sports, i live in a country however that frowns on betting even though all their major sports leagues are mostly surviving on illegal betting and some legal betting in Vegas. Pretty ironic.

Fair value on the 9 team parlay was $25,733.60, with the payout of $8,053.60 the expected hold on the wager is about 68%. The Pick 3 takeout at North American tracks only range from 12-27%, yet I hear and read all the time what a better value sports betting is. Now that's pretty ironic.

Stillriledup

05-19-2015, 04:29 PM

Stillriledup

05-19-2015, 04:30 PM

Thanks for the info H4C. Maybe one day Americans will be permitted to live in a free country as far as betting goes.

ManU918

05-19-2015, 04:35 PM

In horse racing, if you bet a "pick 9" they only take the takeout one time. If you bet a parlay with 9 teams, they should only take the "-110" on one team and all the other games should be figured out at "Even". If horse racing took "9 takeouts" on a pick 9, they would get into negative territory. Even if the takeout was 10%, it would end up that you're paying 90% if they zapped you for 10 percent on every "race".

This makes zero sense. Baseball odds are based on pitchers. In no circumstance is a casino ever going to give Kershaw a -100 line when facing one of the worst teams in baseball.

ManU918

05-19-2015, 04:37 PM

Thanks for the info H4C. Maybe one day Americans will be permitted to live in a free country as far as betting goes.

Hopefully not. I like offshores better. My wagers don't impact pools when it comes to racing and when I hit big I don't have to sign any tax forms.

ManU918

05-19-2015, 04:46 PM

Fair value on the 9 team parlay was $25,733.60, with the payout of $8,053.60 the expected hold on the wager is about 68%. The Pick 3 takeout at North American tracks only range from 12-27%, yet I hear and read all the time what a better value sports betting is. Now that's pretty ironic.

Fair value was 25K according to who? A parlay is a set odd wager. The players know exactly what they are wagering and winning if they hit a parlay when the wager is placed. In racing when a player plays a multi-race exotic of three races or more, players have no idea what they will win because it's based on the amount bet into the pool and how many people have winning tickets. I knew when I put my wager together what the payout was going to be. If you go and use any parlay calculator out there it will spit out an exact number or a number within a few dollars of what I was paid. Would I rather have won 25K? Sure... Who wouldn't want an extra 17 grand? But I knew what the risk/reward was when the wager was placed.

proximity

05-19-2015, 05:41 PM

Good to see you back, ManU918.
Keep hitting those parlays!

this!! :ThmbUp:

ttt

horses4courses

05-19-2015, 06:57 PM

Thanks for the info H4C. Maybe one day Americans will be permitted to live in a free country as far as betting goes.

We should have the choice of whether to bet on sports, or not.
Like ADW outfits for horses - let each state decide.

Make a state like Nevada the hub for all sports wagering.
Have an organized registration system for bettors to keep minors out.
Each state that decides to take part gets a percentage of each wager
payable to them by the bookmaking company doing business in NV.
Most of the existing casino books could take part, along with other
companies like William Hill, Betfair, and plenty of others.
Each of them would have to be licensed, either through
Nevada Gaming Control, federally, or both.

It's not rocket science.
Just treating the regulation of an age-old business with some thought.
Instead of sweeping it under the carpet like it doesn't exist,
allowing illegal operations to flourish, and further jeopardizing the
integrity of major US sports due to criminal involvement.

Opinion on the subject is changing.
Just not quickly enough for my liking.

horses4courses

05-19-2015, 07:14 PM

Fair value was 25K according to who? A parlay is a set odd wager. The players know exactly what they are wagering and winning if they hit a parlay when the wager is placed. In racing when a player plays a multi-race exotic of three races or more, players have no idea what they will win because it's based on the amount bet into the pool and how many people have winning tickets. I knew when I put my wager together what the payout was going to be. If you go and use any parlay calculator out there it will spit out an exact number or a number within a few dollars of what I was paid. Would I rather have won 25K? Sure... Who wouldn't want an extra 17 grand? But I knew what the risk/reward was when the wager was placed.

Absolutely correct.

You can really only assess a true odds payoff
should the parlay have a fixed odds dividend.
This is the norm for, say, football or basketball games that are
basically a coin flip through the point spreads set on the game.

For example, it is normal for books to pay 13-5 on a 2-pick parlay.
True odds are 3-1. They pay 6-1 on a 3-pick, where the true odds are 7-1.

ManU918's proposition parlay was different.
His accumulated payoff is based entirely on the money lines he picked.
True, there is some vig built into these lines.
That's a cost of doing business.
You can't easily quantify the true odds of him hitting this wager.
Lines have fluctuated from opening - who's to say what's right, or wrong?

Naturally, the true odds of him hitting the bet are higher.
Not to the extent of $25K, though.

Relwob Owner

05-19-2015, 07:36 PM

This makes zero sense. Baseball odds are based on pitchers. In no circumstance is a casino ever going to give Kershaw a -100 line when facing one of the worst teams in baseball.

First off, congrats on your score. Thats awesome.

Second off, too bad this thread was hijacked with the usual nonsense that one poster comes up with to make threads all about their own opinions and complaints. Sense isn't involved when this happens and it appears to be the case again here.

Lastly, go hit another 9 teamer!

Stillriledup

05-19-2015, 08:41 PM

This makes zero sense. Baseball odds are based on pitchers. In no circumstance is a casino ever going to give Kershaw a -100 line when facing one of the worst teams in baseball.

You had only 4 baseball games and 5 NHL/NBA games. My point was that whatever line you're paying, you're not getting the same one price fits all that you get in a pick 6, or pick 9 in horse racing.

horses4courses

05-19-2015, 08:59 PM

You had only 4 baseball games and 5 NHL/NBA games. My point was that whatever line you're paying, you're not getting the same one price fits all that you get in a pick 6, or pick 9 in horse racing.

There's no 25% plus takeout, though.

Trust me on this one.
He's not getting a bad deal on his payoff.
Especially compared to horse racing.

Stillriledup

05-19-2015, 09:01 PM

There's no 25% plus takeout, though.

Trust me on this one.
He's not getting a bad deal on his payoff.
Especially compared to horse racing.

My point was that there is a "takeout" on all 9 individual bets and in the parlay you pay that freight, but in horse racing in a pick 9, you only pay that once. I'm trusting you, but i'm confused a bit on this, does the math not support what i'm saying?

horses4courses

05-19-2015, 09:04 PM

Hopefully not. I like offshores better. My wagers don't impact pools when it comes to racing and when I hit big I don't have to sign any tax forms.

Offshores won't be going anywhere anytime soon.

I would imagine that if sports betting was ever expanded in the US,
the illegal offshore books would just make adjustments.

You might find, though, that those using them from the US would come
under closer scrutiny by the authorities. That's not the case right now.

horses4courses

05-19-2015, 09:19 PM

My point was that there is a "takeout" on all 9 individual bets and in the parlay you pay that freight, but in horse racing in a pick 9, you only pay that once. I'm trusting you, but i'm confused a bit on this, does the math not support what i'm saying?

$50 parlay - 9 winning picks @ even money pays $25600

Same parlay with the vig built in on a 20 cent line:

$50 parlay - 9 winning picks @ -110 pays $16835.40

So, yes, what you say is true comparing takeout versus sports vig.

Let me ask you this, though.
What do you think a PK9 at the track would pay with nine match races?

It's been a long time since I've seen a horse match
at the track that's a pickem with each horse @ -110

Stillriledup

05-20-2015, 06:24 AM

$50 parlay - 9 winning picks @ even money pays $25600

Same parlay with the vig built in on a 20 cent line:

$50 parlay - 9 winning picks @ -110 pays $16835.40

So, yes, what you say is true comparing takeout versus sports vig.

Let me ask you this, though.
What do you think a PK9 at the track would pay with nine match races?

It's been a long time since I've seen a horse match
at the track that's a pickem with each horse @ -110

I think 9 match races in horse racing would cost 512 dollars to go "all" 9 times. So, the median price for the pick 9 would be 512 bucks minus the takeout, lets say 10 pct for arguments sake. it would pay 460 dollars assming both horses in all 9 races had the exact same amount of cash on them in both pools.

If you make 9 win bets and parlay the money, i'm assuming each horse would pay 3.60 to win, so what's the parlay if you parlay nine horses who pay exactly 3.60 each?

A "parlay" is different than a pick 9 in horse racing because the horse track lets you "bundle" the 9 races into "1 race" but in sports betting, they force you to take the effective pari mutuel 'hit' in all 9 events even though you are essentially betting a pick 9 where all 9 have to win for you to cash.

horses4courses

05-20-2015, 08:53 AM

I think 9 match races in horse racing would cost 512 dollars to go "all" 9 times. So, the median price for the pick 9 would be 512 bucks minus the takeout, lets say 10 pct for arguments sake. it would pay 460 dollars assming both horses in all 9 races had the exact same amount of cash on them in both pools.

If you make 9 win bets and parlay the money, i'm assuming each horse would pay 3.60 to win, so what's the parlay if you parlay nine horses who pay exactly 3.60 each?

A "parlay" is different than a pick 9 in horse racing because the horse track lets you "bundle" the 9 races into "1 race" but in sports betting, they force you to take the effective pari mutuel 'hit' in all 9 events even though you are essentially betting a pick 9 where all 9 have to win for you to cash.

The bottom line is this - both racetracks and sports books
are in business to make a profit. They just go about it in different ways.

Your random -125 for a pickem horse match is close to reality.
At a book, the takeout would be closer to half that.

I'm just about done with this thread.
I take it that you think pari-mutuel sports wagering
would be better for the player?

Stillriledup

05-20-2015, 05:13 PM

The bottom line is this - both racetracks and sports books
are in business to make a profit. They just go about it in different ways.

Your random -125 for a pickem horse match is close to reality.
At a book, the takeout would be closer to half that.

I'm just about done with this thread.
I take it that you think pari-mutuel sports wagering
would be better for the player?

The advantages of sports betting are that you get fixed odds, can bet whatever you can afford without knocking down your own price (for the most part) and the takeout for many sports bets (NBA, NFL) is 5 percent.

I don't think pari mutuel sports wagering would be good for the player, i think bettors like knowing their price when they make the bet..

Unlike racing where you think you're getting 4-1 and your horse goes to 3-1 at the top of the lane after he got an easy lead. That doesn't happen in sports betting.

horses4courses

05-20-2015, 06:46 PM

The advantages of sports betting are that you get fixed odds, can bet whatever you can afford without knocking down your own price (for the most part) and the takeout for many sports bets (NBA, NFL) is 5 percent.

I don't think pari mutuel sports wagering would be good for the player, i think bettors like knowing their price when they make the bet..

Unlike racing where you think you're getting 4-1 and your horse goes to 3-1 at the top of the lane after he got an easy lead. That doesn't happen in sports betting.

Imagine a nationwide "pick all" pari-mutuel parlay on the NFL each week.
It would dwarf the lottery in no time.

Stillriledup

05-20-2015, 06:49 PM

Imagine a nationwide "pick all" pari-mutuel parlay on the NFL each week.
It would dwarf the lottery in no time.

No doubt, there would be tens of millions in that pool.

horses4courses

05-20-2015, 06:50 PM

No doubt, there would be tens of millions in that pool.

Plus carryovers

Stillriledup

05-20-2015, 06:57 PM

First off, congrats on your score. Thats awesome.

Second off, too bad this thread was hijacked with the usual nonsense that one poster comes up with to make threads all about their own opinions and complaints. Sense isn't involved when this happens and it appears to be the case again here.

Lastly, go hit another 9 teamer!

My strength is spurring interesting debate that's completely on topic. As a quality message board, there's no real value in a post where one person says "yay i won' and then 10 posters respond to say "congrats" That has no value. However, if you want to discuss a wager that the OP posted that might or might not be available (legally or otherwise) to bettors in America, to me, that's an interesting discussion and this thread let me ask my questions to the OP which i believe were in the context of his wager.

Your post, on the other hand, was filled with nothing but vitriol, it also had nothing to do with the original topic and just creates negative feelings and contributes absolutely nothing to the improvement of horseplayers and sports bettors who come here to read quality threads.

Stillriledup

05-20-2015, 06:59 PM

Plus carryovers

That's true if you want to only pay out perfect tickets. I was thinking you could give out small consolations for people who miss 1 or 2 games, like the lottery does, if you hit 5 of 6 in the lottery you get paid something, i like your idea of carryovers and not paying the entire pool out for the people with the most winners. Pay out consos to the most winners but save the bulk for next weeks carryover. Its an amazing idea.

horses4courses

05-20-2015, 07:09 PM

That's true if you want to only pay out perfect tickets. I was thinking you could give out small consolations for people who miss 1 or 2 games, like the lottery does, if you hit 5 of 6 in the lottery you get paid something, i like your idea of carryovers and not paying the entire pool out for the people with the most winners. Pay out consos to the most winners but save the bulk for next weeks carryover. Its an amazing idea.

Consolations would be good.
NFL weeks typically have 15-17 games played.
The odds of hitting 15 games correctly against the spread are over 32000-1
Double that for 16, and again for 17.

Most weeks would have at least one perfect ticket, but not every week.
It would get interesting after a carryover, or two.

Stillriledup

05-20-2015, 07:17 PM

Consolations would be good.
NFL weeks typically have 15-17 games played.
The odds of hitting 15 games correctly against the spread are over 32000-1
Double that for 16, and again for 17.

Most weeks would have at least one perfect ticket, but not every week.
It would get interesting after a carryover, or two.

There's a good shot that someone would hit it every week if there were tens of millions of entries. You are right thought, a carryover would happen on occasion and the C/O would be lottery size.

ultracapper

05-26-2015, 02:50 AM

ultracapper

05-26-2015, 02:56 AM

Consolations would be good.
NFL weeks typically have 15-17 games played.
The odds of hitting 15 games correctly against the spread are over 32000-1
Double that for 16, and again for 17.

Most weeks would have at least one perfect ticket, but not every week.
It would get interesting after a carryover, or two.

A nationwide, heavily played, lottery with odds of 32000-1 would be "bought" every week by rich gamblers.

Stillriledup

05-26-2015, 03:00 AM

Nice hit OP.

BTW SRU, this thread would have been fine with him just showing his ticket and getting 10 "congrats" responses. He said he posted to just brag a bit (Fully understandable. Nice to see someone pop one like that), not to spur a debate on off shore betting or parlay fair odds.

No doubt, but if you spur on a debate or discussion or ask a question, it creates a thread with more substance and that's a win win. Its not the end of the world if a civil discussion takes place and creates an informative thread.

Right?