Designing New, FREE Software

[Dave Schwartz]

I am designing some new software (which will be FREE) and could really use some help. Which features are most important to you?

Please choose as many as you feel are important.

[Capper Al]

Good luck. You have a habit of giving away for free good stuff and good advice.

[JustRalph]

You left out "race shape" or whether or not the pace will make the race fall apart.

I feel this is the only way to make money anymore. When a race falls apart and high priced closers hit the board you can cash. These races are fewer and fewer now, but when they happen, there are still good prices to have.

[Dave Schwartz]

Good idea.

I left out another obvious one, too: picks.

[DRIVEWAY]

Some kind of condition rating and/or improvement indicator.

These two factors are hard to quantify but will help highlight hidden opportunities.

[PhantomOnTour]

A more detailed picture of past races in a horses' pps.

For ex:
1) running position of the top three finishers after the first call
(early speed, presser, midpack, closer)
e = on a clear lead of more than one length
E = engaged in a duel (less than one beaten length)
p = btw 1-3 beaten lengths
m = btw 3-5 beaten lengths
c = more than 5 beaten lengths
**** an Epc race would mean the winner survived an early duel and his foe ran out of the money. A presser ran 2nd and a closer ran 3rd. You can even use a capitol C to indicate a deep closer.

2) a shorthand trip note for the top three finishers with regard to what path they took:
R2w5w indicates a slingshot type trip where the runner was on the rail and then gradually worked his way out to the 5 path for the stretch run
3w BTL is a runner who was in the 3 path on Backstretch, Turn and Lane

Just some humble ideas.

[DeltaLover]

A more detailed picture of past races in a horses' pps.

For ex:
1) running position of the top three finishers after the first call
(early speed, presser, midpack, closer)
e = on a clear lead of more than one length
E = engaged in a duel (less than one beaten length)
p = btw 1-3 beaten lengths
m = btw 3-5 beaten lengths
c = more than 5 beaten lengths
**** an Epc race would mean the winner survived an early duel and his foe ran out of the money. A presser ran 2nd and a closer ran 3rd. You can even use a capitol C to indicate a deep closer.

2) a shorthand trip note for the top three finishers with regard to what path they took:
R2w5w indicates a slingshot type trip where the runner was on the rail and then gradually worked his way out to the 5 path for the stretch run
3w BTL is a runner who was in the 3 path on Backstretch, Turn and Lane

Just some humble ideas.

Excellent suggestions! :ThmbUp:

[Dave Schwartz]

Excellent ideas.

[PhantomOnTour]

Excellent ideas.
Thx Dave

I use these in my own notes that I input into my PP Generator program. I kind of made up the shorthand to my liking.
It really helps me envision a race without having to look up each chart.
An ECC race is a leader who dueled early, his foe faded, and deep closers ran 2nd/3rd....these little things help put my pace and speed figs in a little better context.

[upthecreek]

Dave,just curious which data file it will use?
And many thanks!!!

[Dave Schwartz]

Big surprise: It won't use any data files.

WHAT?

[Capper Al]

Will most column or row headers have a comment definition inserted?

[Dave Schwartz]

As a general rule, my stuff is highly customizable.

[Appy]

No data cards, no database. Hmmm.
That makes it sound like a programed system offering contender rankings based on statistical response to race/pace shapes calculated from data manually entered by the user.
Or does this free software connect to a "mother computer" which does utilize database and cards?

[Dave Schwartz]

The concept is that it begins where your handicapping stops, and then improves it from there.

You could be using any software you want. You could be using a spreadsheet. You could be using paper & pencil. You could be using entries from a website.

There will be methods for getting some primary (or more complex) data from whatever system you are using into the program.

Trust me... I have this figured.

[Mechanic]

Yes please, keep chasing contender rankings, pace scenarios ect.
LOL
this is why I play this game, one step ahead!
LoL
learn to wager first
only 5% are looking for wagering tools? unbelievable!
the information for speed, pace, rankings are already there! sources coming out of my ears, some better than others. (free? oh I see now; yes I want free contenders,Lol) nothing is free!
hopefully we all have a huge dbase to source info from, we can all find winners? how do you turn that into a positive ROI?

Goodnight friends, see you at the windows, unless you are still using pace as a FACTOR, then I will buy you a soda and wish you luck.
best wishes, Mechanic

[plainolebill]

You left out "race shape" or whether or not the pace will make the race fall apart.

I feel this is the only way to make money anymore. When a race falls apart and high priced closers hit the board you can cash. These races are fewer and fewer now, but when they happen, there are still good prices to have.

High on my list too.

[acorn54]

You left out "race shape" or whether or not the pace will make the race fall apart.

I feel this is the only way to make money anymore. When a race falls apart and high priced closers hit the board you can cash. These races are fewer and fewer now, but when they happen, there are still good prices to have.


it's the only way to make money anymore until a software comes out that has race shape that identifies closers that can hit the board. but then they will not be high priced, and so it goes.

[barn32]

I am designing some new software (which will be FREE) and could really use some help. Which features are most important to you?

Ease of use.

[EQUIPACE]

Dave, I think Ralph and Phantom have some really great suggestions.

I'm pretty good with Excel (Not as good as Raybo) but I would really like to take my spreadsheets and draw some of the ideas from them and improve a few things. Especially the race pace pressure scenarios.

Also, I am suprised that more voters wouldn't like to see a Tote Scraper... Since I am really not a programmer, I have been able to do it on my spreadsheets through a web data query, but the results haven't always been optimal. Since I create my own odds lines I have the (conditional formatting) in excel point to possible overlays by changing the true odds color. I have some code in them to automate and update every 1 minute but when the race is over I have to do a manual reset for some reason... It really gets old and ocassionaly screws up my column data which means closing it out and relaunching it. Very Annoying!

I am really looking forward to seeing your project here come to light.
Thanks so much!

John
~¿o

[Dave Schwartz]

Equipace,

The concept behind this software is that it gets data from EVERYWHERE. I don't mean like BRIS, DRF or HDW but rather it gets data from OTHER SOFTWARE!

... Such as a spreadsheet which has saved data as a CSV file, or even as a worksheet in the spreadsheet itself. I can grab data directly from your spreadsheet (if you so choose), modify it, and write it back to the spreadsheet in real time.

Specific Example: You could use my tote scraper, have it grab the data and then populate your spreadsheet with the data!

Better example: Let's say that your spreadsheet computes probabilities for each horse. You could make those probabilities available to my software by adding my "interface Worksheet" into your workbook, populating the data on that page (via macro, or by putting formulas in the slots to grab cells from YOUR pages), and my software will reach into that spreadsheet and grab the race data from the Interface Worksheet.

The probabilities you generated and I grab can then be massaged (in my software) to produce exacta probabilities, compare to prices, and send back exacta combinations, hit rates, payoffs, $nets, recommended wagers, etc.

Then, I my software writes back the resulting output back into your spreadsheet on the Interface Page.

All this with the click of a single "Update" button.


My goal with this software - currently named The Hybrid Handicapper - is to connect with the different handicapping approaches (i.e. software or even paper and pencil) so that even someone who just uses their brain for line making (i.e. "I think the contenders are the 1-2-3, their fair odds are this, and I don't care about the rest") can EASILY get that data into a software that can enhance and improve their results.

WHEW.

[Flysofree]

Equipace,

The concept behind this software is that it gets data from EVERYWHERE. I don't mean like BRIS, DRF or HDW but rather it gets data from OTHER SOFTWARE!

... Such as a spreadsheet which has saved data as a CSV file, or even as a worksheet in the spreadsheet itself. I can grab data directly from your spreadsheet (if you so choose), modify it, and write it back to the spreadsheet in real time.

Specific Example: You could use my tote scraper, have it grab the data and then populate your spreadsheet with the data!

Better example: Let's say that your spreadsheet computes probabilities for each horse. You could make those probabilities available to my software by adding my "interface Worksheet" into your workbook, populating the data on that page (via macro, or by putting formulas in the slots to grab cells from YOUR pages), and my software will reach into that spreadsheet and grab the race data from the Interface Worksheet.

The probabilities you generated and I grab can then be massaged (in my software) to produce exacta probabilities, compare to prices, and send back exacta combinations, hit rates, payoffs, $nets, recommended wagers, etc.

Then, I my software writes back the resulting output back into your spreadsheet on the Interface Page.

All this with the click of a single "Update" button.


My goal with this software - currently named The Hybrid Handicapper - is to connect with the different handicapping approaches (i.e. software or even paper and pencil) so that even someone who just uses their brain for line making (i.e. "I think the contenders are the 1-2-3, their fair odds are this, and I don't care about the rest") can EASILY get that data into a software that can enhance and improve their results.

WHEW.

Looking forward to seeing this if it's simple to use..I don't do spreadsheets

[EQUIPACE]

Dave,
I really appreciate your reply. I think you cleared up a lot of questions not only for myself but others here as well.

This should be a great addition to anyones home grown programs/spreadsheets especially. The idea of re-introducing the massaged data back into my existing workbook sounds intriguing...

I'm Stoked!

I'll be following the thread for updates!
Thanks for your offer!

John
~¿o

:cool:

[Dave Schwartz]

The intention is that it will get data from lots of commercial software products, through different methods such as export files, screen captures, free software development kits, etc.

It is being designed to work with almost everything.

[Helles]

Equipace,

The concept behind this software is that it gets data from EVERYWHERE. I don't mean like BRIS, DRF or HDW but rather it gets data from OTHER SOFTWARE!

... Such as a spreadsheet which has saved data as a CSV file, or even as a worksheet in the spreadsheet itself. I can grab data directly from your spreadsheet (if you so choose), modify it, and write it back to the spreadsheet in real time.

Specific Example: You could use my tote scraper, have it grab the data and then populate your spreadsheet with the data!

Better example: Let's say that your spreadsheet computes probabilities for each horse. You could make those probabilities available to my software by adding my "interface Worksheet" into your workbook, populating the data on that page (via macro, or by putting formulas in the slots to grab cells from YOUR pages), and my software will reach into that spreadsheet and grab the race data from the Interface Worksheet.

The probabilities you generated and I grab can then be massaged (in my software) to produce exacta probabilities, compare to prices, and send back exacta combinations, hit rates, payoffs, $nets, recommended wagers, etc.

Then, I my software writes back the resulting output back into your spreadsheet on the Interface Page.

All this with the click of a single "Update" button.


My goal with this software - currently named The Hybrid Handicapper - is to connect with the different handicapping approaches (i.e. software or even paper and pencil) so that even someone who just uses their brain for line making (i.e. "I think the contenders are the 1-2-3, their fair odds are this, and I don't care about the rest") can EASILY get that data into a software that can enhance and improve their results.

WHEW.

This is VERY impressive.

[EQUIPACE]

The intention is that it will get data from lots of commercial software products, through different methods such as export files, screen captures, free software development kits, etc.

It is being designed to work with almost everything.

Kind of like GOOGLE/AT&T/VERIZON & The US GOV + a million others gathering the information on all of us...

Joking of course!
:lol: :lol: :lol: :D :D :bang:

[Dave Schwartz]

... except YOU will do the gathering.

LOL

[LottaKash]

My goal with this software - currently named The Hybrid Handicapper - is to connect with the different handicapping approaches (i.e. software or even paper and pencil) so that even someone who just uses their brain for line making (i.e. "I think the contenders are the 1-2-3, their fair odds are this, and I don't care about the rest") can EASILY get that data into a software that can enhance and improve their results.

WHEW.

Wow Dave !....As a P&P guy, I just love the concept, absolutely !!! :jump: :jump: :jump:

[upthecreek]

Excuse my ignorance, what is improving results with A.I.?

[Flysofree]

Excuse my ignorance, what is improving results with A.I.?

It used to mean Allen Iverson. But today it means Artificial Intelligence. Has to do with back testing what has worked under certain circumstances. Some love the idea others are very cool to it.. I like it.. when it works. :cool:

[PaceAdvantage]

Yes please, keep chasing contender rankings, pace scenarios ect.
LOL
this is why I play this game, one step ahead!
LoL
learn to wager first
only 5% are looking for wagering tools? unbelievable!
the information for speed, pace, rankings are already there! sources coming out of my ears, some better than others. (free? oh I see now; yes I want free contenders,Lol) nothing is free!
hopefully we all have a huge dbase to source info from, we can all find winners? how do you turn that into a positive ROI?

Goodnight friends, see you at the windows, unless you are still using pace as a FACTOR, then I will buy you a soda and wish you luck.
best wishes, MechanicAhhh...the proverbial "you're all suckers and I'm taking your money to the bank with your failed concepts" reply...

So cliche...

[thaskalos]

Yes please, keep chasing contender rankings, pace scenarios ect.
LOL
this is why I play this game, one step ahead!
LoL
learn to wager first
only 5% are looking for wagering tools? unbelievable!
the information for speed, pace, rankings are already there! sources coming out of my ears, some better than others. (free? oh I see now; yes I want free contenders,Lol) nothing is free!
hopefully we all have a huge dbase to source info from, we can all find winners? how do you turn that into a positive ROI?

Goodnight friends, see you at the windows, unless you are still using pace as a FACTOR, then I will buy you a soda and wish you luck.
best wishes, Mechanic

I couldn't help but notice that you are a very infrequent poster...who has even taken a three year hiatus from our site here recently. Too busy counting your profits, I suppose...

[upthecreek]

It used to mean Allen Iverson. But today it means Artificial Intelligence. Has to do with back testing what has worked under certain circumstances. Some love the idea others are very cool to it.. I like it.. when it works. :cool:
Thanks,that's what I have,artificial',not REAL intelligence!

[Mechanic]

I couldn't help but notice that you are a very infrequent poster...who has even taken a three year hiatus from our site here recently. Too busy counting your profits, I suppose...

ROFL, I lurk here every day, interesting stuff, my favorite site for political bashing

[rog9170]

Let it use trackmaster files also every thing goes thru brisnet.

[Dave Schwartz]

It won't use ANY data files.

[Mechanic]

Ahhh...the proverbial "you're all suckers and I'm taking your money to the bank with your failed concepts" reply...

So cliche...

Oh crap! I forgot I was at PACEADVANTAGE, my bad, I take it all back, PACE is the first thing I look at, it really is, not just being funny, I can't shake it, old habits die hard
I was just trying to make a point and did not mean to be an ass, I like what HSH has to offer, Mr. Schwarzt has worked hard to deliver top shelf software and products which I respect very much.
I would like to see more wagering tools become available, at this time I use two commercial and a couple home grown tools, don't leave home without it!

[rog9170]

So how well u gather info or pp Beyer Speed figures track variant class rating how much money it has raced for lifetime earnings speed rating closers

[Dave Schwartz]

Whatever data is gathered will come from the software you currently use.

[rog9170]

So u will have to manually input info I would love to uses Beyer speed figures

[rog9170]

I use bob pandolof diamond system

[Dave Schwartz]

How do you get the Beyer numbers into Bob's software now?

[rog9170]

i dont use it but ive seen other software that use problem is i would like incorparated with any software .

[Dave Schwartz]

The idea will be that if you can get it to the clipboard or into a file (i.e. copy/paste) it can probably find its way into the program.

The software will contain a "report designer" of sorts that will work with column-based reports. You spend a little time creating the headings and the system matches that with the incoming data. Think of it as a simple template.

For example, if a columnar BRIS report can be copied to the clipboard then it can be pasted into a file structure and imported.

Think of it as a self-writing report writer where the data can be parsed and a file definition for the pasting only needs to be created once.

At least this is the plan.

My dream for this software is that with a little effort on the part of the users, and a little willingness to share the formats created (i.e. uploaded to a library) eventually the user(s) will go looking for the data structure for the software or report they are using.

There will also be a free SDK (Software Development Kit) so that a software author can EASILY write an export from his software to ours.

Notice that this product is not designed to be data centric despite the fact that this is the nature of the industry.

Special note: I believe their is still a place for people who WANT to enter LIMITED data by hand.

Imagine that you could use a free program to copy and paste the entries, race description, etc. into the software and then add other fields by hand.


Why would you want to do all of this?
What our flagship product ((HSH) (http://store.thehorsehandicappingauthority.com/products/The-HorseStreet-Handicapper.html) does best - aside from picking amazing contenders - is manage your day. It does everything from:

* organizing the races you are interested in order by local time
* hitting the tote board for odds, potential payoffs, scratches, post time changes
* creating bets in a race according to system(s) that you can create
(who to bet, how much, etc.)
* banging your bets into a database for future study (including the horses you didn't bet)
* picking up prices and adding them to the bet study
* managing your rebates

In other words, it makes the race day experience a lot of fun. Heck, if you have Racetrack Television Network, ti even stores the channel numbers with each track.

The primary purpose of this software is to ENHANCE the handicapper's experience. It will do this by:
1) Improving the results of the handicapping you have already done.
and
2) Improving the daily experience by making things easier.


My hope is to GIVE AWAY 5,000 copies of this software.

[Capper Al]

So I'll be able to upload a BRIS Multicaps file, and another user can upload a Formulator file for the same card. I expect we might have different results. Do we?

[Dave Schwartz]

So I'll be able to upload a BRIS Multicaps file, and another user can upload a Formulator file for the same card.

I did not say that. In fact, I said precisely the opposite.

I am NOT building a product that COMPETES with other handicapping software products.

The idea is that you handicap in the product you are currently using and export "some things" that are close to the final output (or perhaps back a step).

Example:

Let's say that you use a product that massages the data like Formulator (a product that I am not too familiar with). You select paceline views, look at report pages or whatever you do in that product. At the end of all your process, you get something from that. Maybe it is contenders, specific picks, a probability for all (or just some) of the horses.

At this point you are facing some decisions:
1) Do I bet this race?
2) Who do I bet?
3) How do I bet?

If you get whatever conclusions you have come to into our software, we will do 2 things:
1) We will improve your ultimate decision(s)
2) We will make the entire handicapping experience more fun, pleasant, etc.

My job is to provide some mechanisms for getting that data into the software and doing some cool stuff with it once it gets in.


In other words, my vision for this software is that it picks up where your current software(s), spreadsheet(s), report(s) and paper & pencil system(s) leave off.



Consider a guy that purchases picks. (Yes, I know... YOU would NEVER do that, but humor me anyway.)

Imagine he buys picks every day for 3 tracks - NY, SoCal, TAM.

Now, imagine that he can get those picks into a software tool like mine that builds a database of races, horses, etc. and those picks. With some "study tools" or some very advanced A.I., he might learn that a particular "picker" is very good at a particular track, or perhaps only on the dirt at that track. Or turf, or maidens, etc.

If you've got that in your head, imagine that back in your chosen software you play those same 3 tracks. In your software you've got 3 different screens that you use to make your handicapping decisions. Now imagine each of those screens like "pickers." That is, they point to a particular horse or 2 (or 4).

This software will allow you to know how well each of those screens does at the job you've asked it to do.

Using the A.I. it could even integrate those pickers - I mean screens - together and weight them, thereby improving your handicapping.

YOU could also be ONE OF the pickers.

You could also have several pickers called, for example:
* ES Analysis
* Form Analysis
* Class Analysis
* Speed Rating Analysis

Your could enter a value for each horse in the race and have the software "figure out" how to integrate these "pickers" together by looking at the races you have entered in the past.


But to be clear... In its simplest form, the system will work without purchasing any data from anyone. You can get basic race data into the system for free - by copy/paste - from many places. (Not talking about handicapping data - i.e. speed ratings, etc.) Then YOU add your opinions.


The challenge for me is spending the time to build a generic interface portal that easily imports data from your chosen software, reports, pick provider, etc.

I am sure that some of you that have written software are scratching your heads and saying, "How is this possible? Nobody can do that." I contend that it is already being done. Just think of Microsoft One Note.

[Flysofree]

I've never learned how to "copy and paste". So, unless it has a place to input my figures and spit out info, I won't be able to use it... I know, I know.. LEARN how to copy and paste!

[Dave Schwartz]

Just click this link:

Google is your friend (http://lmgtfy.com/?q=how+to+copy+and+paste)



.

[Capper Al]

I dump a homemade csv file into my spreadsheets. Your product can import my data and extrapolate on it?

[Dave Schwartz]

I dump a homemade csv file into my spreadsheets. Your product can import my data and extrapolate on it?


Yes, that is the plan.

[jk3521]

Seems like a dream software package, Dave. Good luck. :ThmbUp:

[Dave Schwartz]

It is and I could use a little good luck.

:ThmbUp:

[Capper Al]

Currently, I have about 700 fields per race being output and should end up around a 1000 fields per horse. Not all will be meaningful. Is there a method for just picking what's needed? Or will I have to filter my output for your input screen?

[Dave Schwartz]

I doubt that the interface will handle 700 fields but will think about it.

I suppose I could accommodate that.

What ever you configure would become available for being listed in the "Factor List."

[DeltaLover]

I doubt that the interface will handle 700 fields but will think about it.

I suppose I could accommodate that.

What ever you configure would become available for being listed in the "Factor List."

What exactly do we mean by handling 700 fields?

[Dave Schwartz]

Delta,

The conversation has been about "getting data into the software."

I meant that 700 fields (for each horse) in that spreadsheet could be sucked into a file in the software.

[Capper Al]

Delta,

The conversation has been about "getting data into the software."

I meant that 700 fields (for each horse) in that spreadsheet could be sucked into a file in the software.

I could always make a subset of fields if the input fields are known.

[Dave Schwartz]

You will create the spreadsheet page that has headings and rows of horses underneath. Then, in my software you will match your columns to the fields.

Some of the fields will be pre-created - like Program Number, PP, Name, etc. - others will await definition as a "user field."

[Capper Al]

Dave,

It will be designed to just accept standard input files like BRIS Multicaps, not needing any other modifications by the user?

[Dave Schwartz]

Again, it will not contain any direct file imports.

[rog9170]

So would I be able to input this

[Dave Schwartz]

Not in that format, no.

It would have commas between all the fields.

[rog9170]

What format would I need too change it in too

[rog9170]

Would u be able to make it too accept rtf format

[Dave Schwartz]

No RTF.

Just comma-delimited.

[Elliott Sidewater]

I picked 3 of the top 4 factors in the poll results as "personally important". Did not choose "solid contender ratings", I prefer to do that on my own. I am very interested in a morning line to compare against the somewhat flawed one that I developed myself at least 10 years ago. No new "wish list" items from me; if it does half of the things you intend AND is free, what's not to like?

This is a very ambitious project, best of luck with it.

[whodoyoulike]

Just wondering how this project is progressing?

Are you planning to incorporate at least all of these features plus any other suggestions? Are they all practical to design so far?

I'm uncertain what you mean with items #2 and #4.

How would the software research picks (#2)?

And, how exactly can the program improve the results with A.I. -- #4 (are you thinking of a lot of IF statements)?

Or, does the A.I. portion creates a separate maybe even a massive database for reference. I obviously know nothing of A.I or it's capabilities.

Good luck. What is your timeline for this project (6 mos. or 1 - 2 yrs)?

[Dave Schwartz]

All in good time, my friend.

I would never hard-wire a handicapping approach (i.e. IF statements). I write A.I. that thinks and learns.

[rog9170]

My client-base today includes sev*eral Asian, Aus*tralian and U.S.-based “whale” teams as well as more than a hand*ful of pro*fes*sional play*ers. World*wide, my pro*fes*sional clients wager almost a bil*lion dol*lars each year

I borrowed this from your website
Aren't they called Syndicates and way to go my friend I will be waiting for your free software .

[Dave Schwartz]

No, they are not syndicates. That implies "partnerships" or a bunch of guys pooling their resources. Not how it works.

Also, very old website.

[Capper Al]

Dave,

I guess that the advantage for the programmer with their own picks is connecting to your online tote-board for wagering?

[Dave Schwartz]

It is an advantage to have the scratches, odds, post time changes and results up to date, yes.

[whodoyoulike]

All in good time, my friend.

I would never hard-wire a handicapping approach (i.e. IF statements). I write A.I. that thinks and learns.

I just mentioned IF statements because it reminded me of a story an IT manager once told to me. He reviewed a former programmer's code which contained thousands of IF....Then statements which was --- IF "empl#" equals xx Then ..... (I think it's an old IT joke).

I admit I know nothing about A.I. sometimes even now, I think my I. is A.

So, do you have an est. timeline for completion (even a rough est.)?

[Dave Schwartz]

Hoping for around Breeder's Cup.

I just have so many projects in the works but this is the one that drives me the most.

[hyipro]

Are you running "Watson" for your analysis ? just curious, I tried to use it but could not figure out how to configure the data files.

[Dave Schwartz]

No, I write my own stuff. Over the years I have written neural networks, genetic algorithms and prediction markets. I do have a plan.

Is there a software product available called "Watson?"

[Capper Al]

I'll work with a team uploading BRIS DRF and MCP files into Dave's spreadsheet. If interested to be part of the team, PM me.

[DeltaLover]

No, I write my own stuff. Over the years I have written neural networks, genetic algorithms and prediction markets. I do have a plan.

Is there a software product available called "Watson?"

http://www.ibm.com/smarterplanet/us/en/ibmwatson/what-is-watson.html

[Dave Schwartz]

DL,

I knew about that, but did not think it was a free product. Am I wrong?

PS: Did anybody look at the Ayasdi link (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i-49Nniwuiw&list=PLxe0anpfshS3rTUnbHyWCjA3N6mXtrbUZ&index=1) I posted?

[DeltaLover]

DL,

I knew about that, but did not think it was a free product. Am I wrong?

PS: Did anybody look at the Ayasdi link (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i-49Nniwuiw&list=PLxe0anpfshS3rTUnbHyWCjA3N6mXtrbUZ&index=1) I posted?

I have not use it. I also think is not open...

[Dave Schwartz]

No, not open. But it is the direction of my analysis.

Trust me... watch the video.

or this one if you'd prefer English Premiere League (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WrHOLkLr_hA&index=2&list=PLxe0anpfshS3rTUnbHyWCjA3N6mXtrbUZ).

[DeltaLover]

No, not open. But it is the direction of my analysis.

Trust me... watch the video.

or this one if you'd prefer English Premiere League (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WrHOLkLr_hA&index=2&list=PLxe0anpfshS3rTUnbHyWCjA3N6mXtrbUZ).

ok, thx.. i will watch and comment

[hyipro]

WATSON CAN READ THE FOLLOWING FILE FORMATS:

Only CSV, XLS, XLSX, and SAV files are allowed. Please select a file with the extension .csv, .xls, .xlsx or .sav

ICHANGED THE SINGLE BRIS FILE EXTENSION FROM .DRF TO .CSV, DID NOT WORK THE FIRST FEW TIMES HEN I DID IT FROM BRIS DOWNLOAD
WHILE IN ZIP FORM THEN IT WORKED, AFTER THAT I WAS LOST AS TO WHAT TO DO NEXT. SIGN UP IS FREE

[Dave Schwartz]

Raw data would not likely be meaningful.

[Sinner369]

Raw data would not likely be meaningful.

Dave there is a website that does this already ....Betmix.com........???

The site also use some form of AI to help you create your own racing equation.

What would be the difference between your projected software and Betmixes?

[Dave Schwartz]

I like the interface but it is just not robust enough. Advocating learning what wins a type of race based upon 3 or 4 races is just silly.

In addition, their process is top-heavy with user-based work.

Imagine you want to do this with (say) a 100 or 200 races. There you are, putting in the results for 200 races, one race at a time.

For example, our current software has about 4,000 factors per horse. Turn on a few hundred of them.

Then design a template which describes the races. (Track, surface, distance, type of race, age, sex, field size, pace pressure, etc.)

The software fetches the races from the database and performs some analysis on the data. The ultimate result is similar to "mix" but we call it a "Handicapping Object." The result is just much more powerful.

Perhaps a direct comparison would be to say that an object contains factors that are combined into a single "mix" such as "ES," while their could be another object just for "class."


No offense meant to the guys at Betmix but in comparison to the A.I. I write, BetMix is a toy.


What I have in mind for the new software is just very cool. It is even easier than what I just described.

More like BetMix but without the user effort in the sense that you just put in ALL the races you have and let the software group the races together based upon similarities. Thus, instead of you building individual systems, the software builds MANY systems, all from the same data by grouping them together for you.

Just go back and look at the Ayasdi links.

I can write that.

[DeltaLover]

I've spent some time going on the betmix website.

My impressions are the following:

* Data delivery (it has to be a REST API) is following the correct direction that has to be adopted by any other modern software. Local databases and direct access to them is simply a thing of the past and all modern applications should follow a similar paradigm to betmix


* The design and implementation of their front ends are among the best I have seen in a horse racing related application (can only be rivaled by TimeForm US). There is some room for improvement, by applying the one page website, which will improve the User Experience


* As far a handicapping value, I certainly think that there is way more technical expertise to be found in this site than domain (horse betting) understanding. I do not like their “mixing” approach (lacking the ability to add / remove custom factors and automate the “mix”) and also I see way to much focus on the predictability of the model, which I do not believe should be in the core of an automated approach ( I do not say that is not needed but its role is second to “profitability” which relies on finding the systematic crowd's errors).

To conclude, this application might be fun to use for a recreational bettor but I do not think that can be used to make any serious money.

[Flysofree]

One thing that I like about Betmix is there is nothing to download. But I'm an oldtimer.

[PaceAdvantage]

An old-timer would WANT something to download...that's old-timey... :lol:

[Dave Schwartz]

Delta,

I think your assessment is pretty much in agreement with mine.

BTW, if you watch the Ayasdi video, give me a call if you'd like to discuss it.


Dave

[DeltaLover]

Delta,

I think your assessment is pretty much in agreement with mine.

BTW, if you watch the Ayasdi video, give me a call if you'd like to discuss it.


Dave

Tonight

[DeltaLover]

Delta,

I think your assessment is pretty much in agreement with mine.

BTW, if you watch the Ayasdi video, give me a call if you'd like to discuss it.


Dave


Hey Dave,

I've watched the two videos you posted.. I am aware of the concept they are talking about and have done some related work (not for horses but for other industries)... As you say, we should chat about. (some time next week)

[Capper Al]

Dave,

I know you are a busy guy, but didn't you say you were doing a meeting on how to adjust your handicapping over the time of the year?

[Dave Schwartz]

I don't recall that and have no current plans.

I would be more concerned over race number at the track.

Seriously, I have seen (for years) an interesting phenomenon about time of day. Not time of day at the track but in my own handicapping.

I find that after 12:30-1:00 (3:30-4:00 eastern) my performance slips substantially. The later in the day it goes, the worse my performance.

I have looked at tracks played, and it is not that.

In other words, my ROI in the early morning - which is logically the first 3-4 races on each card - is substantially higher than the races that come afterwards.

[Flysofree]

Tracking the money that goes into the Win Pool at each and every flash of the tote would tell you a lot over time ... I don't know if software already exists to do this, but I feel strongly smart money has a way of showing up in some type of pattern including very late.

[Dave Schwartz]

FlySoFree,

The problem with that is that the smartest money on the planet comes down too late to track. (You would, presumably, be included in that.)

BTW, while the software will scrape a toteboard or two, it will absolutely NOT scrape every race like every 10 seconds. That would just be too great a draw down on the resources of the tote provider and would lead to the user getting blocked.

It will provide a tote update "on demand."

[Capper Al]

Years ago, when I was playing harness, my hits came in the last two races. It happened so much, my friends were asking me why I even played the first eight race at all.

[mickey_arnold]

I have been incredibly sloppy with my design of race type descriptions and their data entry (manual or automated ) in my spreadsheet analysis. It has obviously compromised my own attempts to utilize a history file, though it doe not hinder me from making decisions on value wagers for individual races

Dave, I assume that if when I design what I choose for grabbing, I had better make sure that there is standardization of data, especially race type. Otherwise I'll be building a history that is useless.

Unless, what you are looking at inclusion in inclusion in your tool design . a feature that can automatically seek out or, more precisely demand, the inclusion of key data elements and accurate data "entry" in a field like race type, that I desire to be utilized for my decision-making "enhancement".

If you haven't conceived of your tool accomplishing that, can something be realistically designed to preclude the inclusion of inadequately designed data elemnts for grabbing or compensate for sloppy data content, or is it the typical situation whereby the person attempting to use your tool, suffers the penalty of "garbage in, garbage out" ?

I hope I've explained my inquiry clearly enough.

[Dave Schwartz]

Unless, what you are looking at inclusion in inclusion in your tool design . a feature that can automatically seek out or, more precisely demand, the inclusion of key data elements and accurate data "entry" in a field like race type, that I desire to be utilized for my decision-making "enhancement"

Yes, this is completely accounted for.

[Hoofless_Wonder]

I don't recall that and have no current plans.

I would be more concerned over race number at the track.

Seriously, I have seen (for years) an interesting phenomenon about time of day. Not time of day at the track but in my own handicapping.

I find that after 12:30-1:00 (3:30-4:00 eastern) my performance slips substantially. The later in the day it goes, the worse my performance.

I have looked at tracks played, and it is not that.

In other words, my ROI in the early morning - which is logically the first 3-4 races on each card - is substantially higher than the races that come afterwards.

Bias? Early races provide juicier payoffs, and later races have the sharps stepping in and making their bets now that they have a feel for how the track is playing. That's my guess.

As for your project, this does sound cool, even if it does have an open source "feel" to it. :)

Are you planning to write the code for Windows? Scripting tool like python?

[Dave Schwartz]

As for your project, this does sound cool, even if it does have an open source "feel" to it.

No open source.


Are you planning to write the code for Windows? Scripting tool like python?


Code will be written for Windows. Not a script. Cannot protect a script.

[Hoofless_Wonder]

No open source..

From your post # 44:

"My dream for this software is that with a little effort on the part of the users, and a little willingness to share the formats created (i.e. uploaded to a library) eventually the user(s) will go looking for the data structure for the software or report they are using."

This is the part I was talking about in terms of an "open source" feel to it - sharing of a portion of the info, even if the underlying code isn't open source.


Code will be written for Windows. Not a script. Cannot protect a script.

I understand this, although if you're distributing the code for free, I guess it's not so much for protecting the intellectual property as it is for security and maintenance.....

[Dave Schwartz]

I understand this, although if you're distributing the code for free, I guess it's not so much for protecting the intellectual property as it is for security and maintenance.....

It is all of those things including intellectual property.

[DeltaLover]

It was my impression that this thread was about free software..

[Flysofree]

Mine too what a joke.

[Dave Schwartz]

So, in order for something to be free you have to give away the source?

[DeltaLover]

So, in order for something to be free you have to give away the source?

Absolutely Dave..

Read here:
http://www.gnu.org/philosophy/free-sw.en.html


A program is free software if the program's users have the four essential freedoms:

The freedom to run the program as you wish, for any purpose (freedom 0).
The freedom to study how the program works, and change it so it does your computing as you wish (freedom 1). Access to the source code is a precondition for this.
The freedom to redistribute copies so you can help your neighbor (freedom 2).
The freedom to distribute copies of your modified versions to others (freedom 3). By doing this you can give the whole community a chance to benefit from your changes. Access to the source code is a precondition for this.

[Dave Schwartz]

I never said this was "open source." I never said anything about GNU.

I said, "FREE."

If "FREE TO USE" isn't good enough then don't use it.


How many people here are willing to put 500+ hours into a project and even allow for its free USE?

Show of hands, please. You John? How about you, Mr. FlySoFree?

John, how about you upload all of your source code.

I am just amazed at this response.

[Speed Figure]

I never said this was "open source." I never said anything about GNU.

I said, "FREE."

If "FREE TO USE" isn't good enough then don't use it.


How many people here are willing to put 500+ hours into a project and even allow for its free USE?

Show of hands, please. You John? How about you, Mr. FlySoFree?

John, how about you upload all of your source code.

I am just amazed at this response.
I'm not! that's why I keep $hit to myself! you'll never be able to make everyone happy, even with giving this program away for free!

[DeltaLover]

I never said this was "open source." I never said anything about GNU.

I said, "FREE."

If "FREE TO USE" isn't good enough then don't use it.


How many people here are willing to put 500+ hours into a project and even allow for its free USE?

Show of hands, please. You John? How about you, Mr. FlySoFree?

I am just amazed at this response.


I am very sorry I said anything wrong!

I still think there is some misunderstanding (maybe due to the terminology we use)!

Please note that open source is not the same as free software. The latter is distributed by even more liberal licences than the former, usually compatible with the GNU GPL, here you can read more about:

http://www.gnu.org/licenses/license-list.en.html#GNUGPL

You can also read here for a comparison of free vs OS:

http://askubuntu.com/questions/78958/is-there-a-difference-between-free-software-and-open-source-software

[Dave Schwartz]

http://www.practicalhandicapping.com/desktop/package/PublicImages/BBSImages/FREE.png

[DeltaLover]

Dave,

If you read the links I've posted before, you will see why there is a misunderstanding..

We say free software more similarly to free speech rather than free beer...

see here also:

http://www.howtogeek.com/howto/31717/what-do-the-phrases-free-speech-vs.-free-beer-really-mean/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Free_software

[Dave Schwartz]

Yes, I get that.

You assume that "free" is synonymous with "open source." I do not.

That is like a recording artist saying, "You can play my song at your wedding" and you think that means you can add yourself to the song, making it a duet. Also means you can begin giving the new song away to all your friends, so long as nobody sells it.

I see it vastly differently than you do.

[headhawg]

You should know that no good deed goes unpunished, Dave. The responses by some people on this board never cease to amaze me.

[rog9170]

I have friends that are coders and they release a game or some kinda of app or software they tend to say use the software it's a beta which is for free after years he tends to put out the open source which know becomes free for your advantage and ideas to the person that made the software .

[DeltaLover]

Yes, I get that.

You assume that "free" is synonymous with "open source." I do not.

That is like a recording artist saying, "You can play my song at your wedding" and you think that means you can add yourself to the song, making it a duet. Also means you can begin giving the new song away to all your friends, so long as nobody sells it.

I see it vastly differently than you do.


I do think that I said free software is synonymous with open source. As you can read in the links I have submitted, free software is distributed under more liberal licences and although this two are close relatives (especially compared to proprietary solutions), still there are some differences between them..

Anyway, as an industry standard, when we refer to free software, we assume the "Four Freedoms" (run - study - redistribute - improve) to be there by default.

Any software maintains proprietary IP, can never be considered free (even if it distributed for free use albeit in a closed form)..

[Dave Schwartz]

Anyway, as an industry standard, when we refer to free software, we assume the "Four Freedoms" (run - study - redistribute - improve) to be there by default.

In my world that would never be agreed upon as an "industry standard."

You work in the open source world and that is YOUR point of view; your standard. I suggest that is not the standard for the entire software world. Just look at all the software being sold at Amazon, Walmart, Best Buy, and everywhere else.

It is also not the experience of most people on this forum. I doubt that there are very many people here who would say, "I always use open source software."


We're reaching a point of diminishing returns here. I get where you're coming from and I disagree. We've both stated out opinions several times.

I will build what I have in mind, people will like it or not; they will use it or not; some will complain that it isn't free enough. Oh, well.

[DeltaLover]

In my world that would never be agreed upon as an "industry standard."

You work in the open source world and that is YOUR point of view. I suggest that is not the entire software world. Just look at all the software being sold at Amazon, Walmart, Best Buy, and everywhere else.

It is also not the experience of most people on this forum. I doubt that there are very many people here who would say, "I always use open source software."


We're reaching a point of diminishing returns here. I get where you're coming from and I disagree. We've both stated out opinions several times.

I will build what I have in mind, people will like it or not; they will use it or not; some will complain that it isn't free enough. Oh, well.

OK, I do not see any problem with your approach Dave..

As far as people liking it, I have to say that the software you produce is good, well thought and effective and I sure a lot of us will like and use it..

Let's get back to the main topic of the thread..

[Dave Schwartz]

OK, I do not see any problem with your approach Dave..

As far as people liking it, I have to say that the software you produce is good, well thought and effective and I sure a lot of us will like and use it..

Let's get back to the main topic of the thread..

:ThmbUp:

[Capper Al]

Dave,

Where are we with the new software?

Thanks

[Dave Schwartz]

About 5 months away, I'd guess.


This is not a trivial project.

[JJMartin]

About 5 months away, I'd guess.


This is not a trivial project.

Hurry up ;)

[Capper Al]

Good ideas take a while to implement.

[Capper Al]

Grandkids left today and vaction starts July 31st, there is no time to code until September.

[Dave Schwartz]

Meanwhile, I am writing this new software in a new language (which will not replace our existing software, BTW).

Learning a new language after 23 years in Clarion is a real adventure. But the language, WinDev, is an amazing piece of work.

It just has everything in it.

Direct access to everything from MS Office to Open Office. You can even put a spreadsheet right inside the software!

Even has native support for an internal macro language for the end user!


Those of you who are programmers may want to take a look.

http://www.windev.com/


In comparison to what I have been using (Clarion), one would have to buy so many 3rd party products to get "everything" that the cost to a new developer today would be around $7,000!

[Helles]

Meanwhile, I am writing this new software in a new language (which will not replace our existing software, BTW).

Learning a new language after 23 years in Clarion is a real adventure. But the language, WinDev, is an amazing piece of work.

It just has everything in it.

Direct access to everything from MS Office to Open Office. You can even put a spreadsheet right inside the software!

Even has native support for an internal macro language for the end user!


Those of you who are programmers may want to take a look.

http://www.windev.com/


In comparison to what I have been using (Clarion), one would have to buy so many 3rd party products to get "everything" that the cost to a new developer today would be around $7,000!

It's fun to see nerds get excited Dave! :)

Doug

[Capper Al]

It's fun to see nerds get excited Dave! :)

Doug

Yes, it is.

[Dave Schwartz]

LOL - I resemble that remark.

In my defense (do I need one?), at least the lights are still on bright enough to be nerd-like AND excited.

[ebcorde]

so many ideas , so so many.

some things to look at

ranking of individual pace figures, speed figures, for all availble races. (need daabase table).

class PERFORMANCE by distance and race type grouped indiviudally and by aggregate if possible. (need database table).

These are some items I have found useful.

[Dave Schwartz]

ebcorde,

Our current software has 4,000+ factors. This program will not be anything like that one. (Neither will it be a replacement for it.)

The scope of this program is to be simple for the user. It will not run on data lie that.

[wallst69]

Good you will do great but please add a database to your program. The reason is to gain better insight for control on the software. Which area of the program winner are produce.

[Dave Schwartz]

Oh, it will keep everything that it is fed. But it will not use conventional horse racing data.

[Fingal]

Oh, it will keep everything that it is fed. But it will not use conventional horse racing data.

That alone might be the main thing. Because when you use conventional methods you get conventional results.

[MitchS]

Oh, it will keep everything that it is fed. But it will not use conventional horse racing data.

I like the idea of keeping everything that it is fed! Sounds interesting Dave, look forward to seeing what you come up with there!

Mitch

[EQUIPACE]

Hi Dave,
Just checking in to see how the project is coming.
I think many of us are still anxious to see and try it out! :cool:

Can you give us an update?
Thanks!

~¿o

John

[Dave Schwartz]

Unfortunately, the completely FREE idea died in focus studies.

Instead there is Pace Makes the Race (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=126212) .

[traynor]

Is your new software complete? I looked, but couldn't find it. Perhaps I'm looking in the wrong place? I see links to articles and videos, but I must be missing the software link.

[Dave Schwartz]

Not complete, but still in development.