American Pharoah: Triple Crown Winner: NAY or YAY?

[RacingFan1992]

Will he do it and why?

I don't think he will. I said it before and I will say it now: BELMONT is the key and AP doesn't have the key to open up the door.

[Rex Phinney]

It's different at Belmont. I can't explain why, it just is.

I think maybe decades ago more riders and trainers spent more time there so it wasn't such a big deal. As it is now, you have horses and even Jockeys chasing the crown who spend all their spring in SoCal, Florida or Lousiana. After having been there last year for the first time, Belmont is a unique track. I just don't know if I could ever trust a horse or even a jockey who has never run there or had success there.

Maybe I have this wrong, but I feel like decades ago this lack of experience at Belmont in Triple Crown races was not as big an issue. I know older horses get to run there more during the fall, but these three year olds typically go there now a days with no races over the track. I think that works at Churchill and Pimlico, but not at a track like Belmont.

[thaskalos]

I will never forget how unbeatable Smarty Jones looked after his Preakness victory. If he couldn't win the Belmont...then I have to think that American Pharoah won't do it either.

[RacingFan1992]

It's different at Belmont. I can't explain why, it just is.

I think maybe decades ago more riders and trainers spent more time there so it wasn't such a big deal. As it is now, you have horses and even Jockeys chasing the crown who spend all their spring in SoCal, Florida or Lousiana. After having been there last year for the first time, Belmont is a unique track. I just don't know if I could ever trust a horse or even a jockey who has never run there or had success there.

Maybe I have this wrong, but I feel like decades ago this lack of experience at Belmont in Triple Crown races was not as big an issue. I know older horses get to run there more during the fall, but these three year olds typically go there now a days with no races over the track. I think that works at Churchill and Pimlico, but not at a track like Belmont.

Thank You! Spectacular Bid, Pleasant Colony, and Funny Cide all ran at Belmont at 2 with a total of 4 out of 5 wins. The three horse who beat them also race at Belmont at 2 with 3 out of the 6 starts being wins.

On five occasions there have been horse who were going for the Triple Crown and never raced at Belmont and they were beaten by horses who did race at Belmont at 2.

I keep telling people Belmont is DIFFERENT. It is a beast that chews you up and spits you out.

[lamboguy]

i would say yes. unlike SMARTY JONES who campaigned and beat a very weak crop of 3 year olds, this one has a bunch of good ones that he has succeeded to knock out.

even if you add a rested FROSTED and MATERIALITY to the Belmont i have the fair price for AMERICAN PHAROAH at 8 cents to the dollar before post position which doesn't matter that much at Belmont.

the only thing that could change would be an injury or poor training leading up to the race.

[Robert Fischer]

He's got a good shot.

Maybe a 40% +20%/-10% (between 60% and 30%) chance if starter. Maybe that's a solid ballpark estimate for tonight. It's tough to guess a percentage, and I'm tired and frustrated tonight, so I'm not going to spend effort to do this for a message board.

He's basically a more relaxed, more composed version of Bernardini.
He's not completely invincible but he's one of the great recent horses that we've had, and his 'limiting factors' also have higher limits than the other horses.
He can lose if confronted with a top grade 1 effort, or something flukey.

[Dahoss2002]

He's got a good shot.

Maybe a 40% +20%/-10% (between 60% and 30%) chance if starter. Maybe that's a solid ballpark estimate for tonight. It's tough to guess a percentage, and I'm tired and frustrated tonight, so I'm not going to spend effort to do this for a message board.

He's basically a more relaxed, more composed version of Bernardini.
He's not completely invincible but he's one of the great recent horses that we've had, and his 'limiting factors' also have higher limits than the other horses.
He can lose if confronted with a top grade 1 effort, or something flukey.
I think he does. Last one I felt this way about was Big Brown. AP might have a better jockey

[depalma113]

Why will he win the Triple Crown? He's far and away better than anything he's going to face. He'll get a work over the track. That is all he needs.

[f2tornado]

I think he does. Last one I felt this way about was Big Brown. AP might have a better jockey

What is he? Something like 2-67 at Belmont (at this time last year). Preakness was first time I thought the horse looked like the real deal but the Preakness also looked like some scripted WWF match. Gonna be grumpy not pulling the 1/ALL/ALL trifecta. Can AP win at Belmont? Sure. This crop of 3yo is pathetic. It's tough finding a 100 BSF for any of them. It's AP then a sizable gap. Who's gonna beat him? This coming from someone who would love to see the horse get crushed.

[uncbossfan]

Before yesterday I was thinking he'd win the Preakness and fall sort in the Belmont. After that race though, I think he is going to do it. He just exudes greatness.

Most importantly tho, I hope people finally start getting the narrative right about this triple crown drought. It is not that these derby and Preakness winners aren't as great as past winners or that the 3 races in 5 weeks is too much, although it is very challenging. It has more to do with Belmont field size than anything else. No disrespect to some of the TC winners from much earlier yrs, but if smarty jones or cal chrome would've run against 3 and 4 horse fields like some of them did we'd have had many more TC winners the past decade.

[BlueChip@DRF]

If 8 starters or less: yes
If 9 starters or more: no

[upthecreek]

Anthony J Stabile (@TheBigAStabile) tweeted at 8:42 AM on Sun, May 17, 2015:
All 11 Triple Crown winners had raced at Belmont prior to the
@BelmontStakes. American Pharoah isn't arriving until 3 days before. Not smart

[RacingFan1992]

Anthony J Stabile (@TheBigAStabile) tweeted at 8:42 AM on Sun, May 17, 2015:
All 11 Triple Crown winners had raced at Belmont prior to the
@BelmontStakes. American Pharoah isn't arriving until 3 days before. Not smart

HELLO! Isn't this what I have been saying all along. He WON'T do it! Espinoza has been in this position twice before and Baffert three times. They should do it but they aren't.

[depalma113]

HELLO! Isn't this what I have been saying all along. He WON'T do it! Espinoza has been in this position twice before and Baffert three times. They should do it but they aren't.

When American Pharoah made his first appearance at Pimlico there was one guy in the stands watching with great interest. He had a one solemn word response when the horse passed by.

"F**k."

That guy was Gary Stevens.

He knew his horse was beat days before the race.

It's about time you all start to realize the same. If the horse you are backing on top is not American Pharoah, you are beat.

[f2tornado]

It's about time you all start to realize the same. If the horse you are backing on top is not American Pharoah, you are beat.

Chrome worshipers said the same last year. Problem is I cannot find a Tonalist this year so you might be right. Slowest Preakness in 65 years so there is still a chance something is better than AP out there.

[upthecreek]

When American Pharoah made his first appearance at Pimlico there was one guy in the stands watching with great interest. He had a one solemn word response when the horse passed by.

"F**k."

That guy was Gary Stevens.

He knew his horse was beat days before the race.

It's about time you all start to realize the same. If the horse you are backing on top is not American Pharoah, you are beat.
Same thing was said about CC,I'll have another,Big Brown, Smarty Jones The 1 1/2 miles gets them
He beat probably one of the worst fields in Preakness history-4 of the horses didn't belong & one of those ran 2nd
I'll be betting against

[RacingFan1992]

Chrome worshipers said the same last year. Problem is I cannot find a Tonalist this year so you might be right. Slowest Preakness in 65 years so there is still a chance something is better than AP out there.

My pick is Frosted or Mubtaahij. Frosted ran at Belmont and Mubtaahij took down older horses so those are my picks. You never know Madefromlucky might get a jump on AP who he has faced before in the Rebel Stakes. This might be redemption for Madefromlucky Here's to TAP and DWL entering their horses. i hope they run him into the ground.

[lamboguy]

Why will he win the Triple Crown? He's far and away better than anything he's going to face. He'll get a work over the track. That is all he needs.
right after the race i was thinking how is going to get beat in New York. i went back and watched the replay and saw the first quarter of the race and then the last quarter. he put MR Z away pretty fast and once again down the lane it looked like he plenty left along with the gallop out. for a horse i hated 2 weeks ago, i really can't find any fault with him. if the horses that sat out the Preakness wanted any shot at him by waiting for the Belmont, they just blew their chances, AMERICAN PHAROAH got better after the Preakness. if it was my choice i wouldn't run against him with those fresh horses, and they might be looking at it the same way.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Chrome worshipers said the same last year. Problem is I cannot find a Tonalist this year so you might be right. Slowest Preakness in 65 years so there is still a chance something is better than AP out there.

Madefromlucky? :cool:

[Shelby]

I sure didn't think Chrome would do it....but I have a different feeling about AP. What a horse! I voted yes.

[Kash$]

Same thing was said about CC,I'll have another,Big Brown, Smarty Jones The 1 1/2 miles gets them
He beat probably one of the worst fields in Preakness history-4 of the horses didn't belong & one of those ran 2nd
I'll be betting against

Most of the triple crown winners also raced against horses that didn't belong..Have you looked at some of the horses Seattle Slew,Count Fleet,Sir Barton,Assault,Omaha beat?

Before the Kentucky Derby this was considered one of the best crop of 3 year Olds in a long time....AP is making it look easy now the tune has change about who he's running against.

[Relwob Owner]

I get the time in the Preakness may have been due to the weather but the Derby time was just terrible and they went very slow late I think. For that reason, I think a fresher horse like Materiality or Frosted can get him at the longer distance.

[f2tornado]

Before the Kentucky Derby this was considered one of the best crop of 3 year Olds in a long time....AP is making it look easy now the tune has change about who he's running against.

Refer to my post prior to the Derby when I clearly stated this crop is grossly overrated. Most of these cannot even eclipse a 100 BSF. It's kind of a joke. AP runs the slowest Preakness in 65 years beating a nw2 and is now a super horse.

[minethatbird08]

Before yesterday I was thinking he'd win the Preakness and fall sort in the Belmont. After that race though, I think he is going to do it. He just exudes greatness.

Most importantly tho, I hope people finally start getting the narrative right about this triple crown drought. It is not that these derby and Preakness winners aren't as great as past winners or that the 3 races in 5 weeks is too much, although it is very challenging. It has more to do with Belmont field size than anything else. No disrespect to some of the TC winners from much earlier yrs, but if smarty jones or cal chrome would've run against 3 and 4 horse fields like some of them did we'd have had many more TC winners the past decade.

And not just the Belmont. The Ky Derby field was smaller for many of the TC winners; the average Derby field for a TC winner is ~ 13.5.

[DeltaLover]

Why there are so many nay sayers?

American Pharoah is a GRET RACE HORSE and I rooting for him to win the TC..

It is going to be good for the sport and for everyone else involved..

I am so surprised from the negativity I can see when we talk about a possible next TC winner that I wrote a blog post about (http://tinyurl.com/n88346q)

[thaskalos]

Why there are so many nay sayers?

American Pharoah is a GRET RACE HORSE and I rooting for him to win the TC..

It is going to be good for the sport and for everyone else involved..

I am so surprised from the negativity I can see when we talk about a possible next TC winner that I wrote a blog post about (http://tinyurl.com/n88346q)
I feel that it's erroneous to compare soccer to horse racing in this instance...because -- unlike horse racing -- soccer's recent stars have eclipsed the superstars of yesterday. In fact...Lionel Messi is hailed as the greatest soccer player of all time.

As far as doubting American Pharoah as a TC winner, I must confess to being one of the doubters...but it isn't my fault. My long memory is to blame.

[Greyfox]

In fact...Lionel Messi is hailed as the greatest soccer player of all time.



That's because younger generations have forgotten the great Pele. :faint:

[DeltaLover]

As far as doubting American Pharoah as a TC winner, I must confess to being one of the doubters...but it isn't my fault. My long memory is to blame.

I think that the chances are fifty fifty or better for having a new TC winner this year.. The only obstacle I might see, has to do with the breeding of AP, but I think it is very possible to outrun his ancestors and score a big win...

[ArlJim78]

The Belmont is a tough tricky race but I think he'll win it. He's already soundly beaten the horses he'll face and under a variety of circumstances. Plus he's a fast, graceful, and athletic mover with great composure on the track.
I don't take the historical approach to handicapping, I look at these as discrete events. It takes a special horse to win the triple crown and I think we have one this time.

[PaceAdvantage]

I wrote on this very board prior to the Kentucky Derby that if American Pharoah wins the Kentucky Derby, he'll win the Triple Crown.

Now, I have yet to actually PICK American Pharoah on top in my analysis, but that's simply a matter of numbers, and numbers never tell the whole story. But when it comes to betting, I'm almost always a numbers man, which is probably why I still have a day job... :lol:

I'm sticking with my opinion. I paid close attention to how AP looked coming home yesterday down the stretch...what I saw was one easy going racehorse...if that was a super fast early pace and a super slow final quarter, it sure wasn't represented in his way of going...his late strides...all looked pretty damn magnificent if you ask me.

Barring some sort of Big Brown fiasco, American Pharoah is our next Triple Crown winner. And I might even bet against him in three weeks. but that doesn't mean I don't think he's going to win.

I think one of the keys to all of this was AP's injury last fall and his subsequent 168 day layoff. Yesterday was only the fourth start since they took him off the shelf. He had every right to improve or to at least not regress off the Derby. And now he has three weeks off after what appeared to me to be a fairly easy race.

No doubt in my mind my earlier prediction comes true.

[Secondbest]

Well. If I've learned one thing in my years of betting horses its that in the Belmont nobody knows Anything until that last 1/16. those last 6-7 seconds will tell the tale

[luisbe]

I think that the chances are fifty fifty or better for having a new TC winner this year.. The only obstacle I might see, has to do with the breeding of AP, but I think it is very possible to outrun his ancestors and score a big win...
His Grandad won the Belmont.

[Dahoss2002]

And I might even bet against him in three weeks. but that doesn't mean I don't think he's going to win.
.
:) I tried that yesterday :bang:

[ronsmac]

I think he does. Last one I felt this way about was Big Brown. AP might have a better jockeyBig Brown had that bad foot, if not for that I think he would have won easily. If Chrome doesn't get stepped on , it's hard to imagine him losing considering how well he ran .

[RaceTrackDaddy]

I wrote on this very board prior to the Kentucky Derby that if American Pharoah wins the Kentucky Derby, he'll win the Triple Crown.

Now, I have yet to actually PICK American Pharoah on top in my analysis, but that's simply a matter of numbers, and numbers never tell the whole story. But when it comes to betting, I'm almost always a numbers man, which is probably why I still have a day job... :lol:

I'm sticking with my opinion. I paid close attention to how AP looked coming home yesterday down the stretch...what I saw was one easy going racehorse...if that was a super fast early pace and a super slow final quarter, it sure wasn't represented in his way of going...his late strides...all looked pretty damn magnificent if you ask me.

Barring some sort of Big Brown fiasco, American Pharoah is our next Triple Crown winner. And I might even bet against him in three weeks. but that doesn't mean I don't think he's going to win.

I think one of the keys to all of this was AP's injury last fall and his subsequent 168 day layoff. Yesterday was only the fourth start since they took him off the shelf. He had every right to improve or to at least not regress off the Derby. And now he has three weeks off after what appeared to me to be a fairly easy race.

No doubt in my mind my earlier prediction comes true.
Pace:
Being a numbers guy, what are your feelings on these speed figures like Bris and Beyer that have to be adjusted (up or down) five or more points after races like this?

Personally, it renders the formula useless if it is constantly adjusted after the races. For the reason, I tend to put little faith in those adjusted figures.

Think Bris changed the speed rating on the Preakness from 95 up to 100 from a post I saw on twitter.

[boys at tosconova]

desormeaux waits, desormeaux waits. desormeaux waits w/ big brown on the outside

[Rex Phinney]

Thank You! Spectacular Bid, Pleasant Colony, and Funny Cide all ran at Belmont at 2 with a total of 4 out of 5 wins. The three horse who beat them also race at Belmont at 2 with 3 out of the 6 starts being wins.

On five occasions there have been horse who were going for the Triple Crown and never raced at Belmont and they were beaten by horses who did race at Belmont at 2.

I keep telling people Belmont is DIFFERENT. It is a beast that chews you up and spits you out.

Lots of people are going to ignore what I've laid out, but I'm going to have to see it to believe that a horse can go there cold turkey and do it (especially with a rider who has at no point ridden there on a daily basis)

You have to take everything you have seen prior to this race and throw it out the window. Especially yesterday, with that rain. some of these guys need to get a grip, of course half the field was going to pull a crap race, look at the conditions. When was the last time we anointed a super horse based on how he beat 7 rivals in a hurricane.

Maybe AP will prove me wrong, I'm just one guy from California, but seeing that track in person I won't believe that a horse can win a race of this magnitude first time over that track until I see it.

[horses4courses]

desormeaux waits, desormeaux waits. desormeaux waits w/ big brown on the outside

What about Desormeaux on Real Quiet?
He didn't wait long enough.

Now, that was a heart breaker. :ThmbDown:

[sbcaris]

RexPhinny: Your sample size is exceedingly small. To say that on 5 occasions horses going for the Triple crown that did not race at Belmont were beaten by a horse that did run over the Belmont track.

The Belmont is a big race every year and it has been won MANY times by a horse that never ran there until Belmont day. Here are a few examples of Belmont winners that never raced at Belmont Park until the Belmont stakes:

2011-Ruler on Ice
2009-Summer Bird
2007-Rags to Riches
2002-Sarava
2000-Commendable
1998-Victory Gallop
1997-Touch Gold
1988-Risen Star
1990-Go and Go

Certainly based on the data above-- running at Belmont Park in a race is certainly NOT required for a horse to win the Belmont Stakes.

[zico20]

Why there are so many nay sayers?

American Pharoah is a GRET RACE HORSE and I rooting for him to win the TC..

It is going to be good for the sport and for everyone else involved..

I am so surprised from the negativity I can see when we talk about a possible next TC winner that I wrote a blog post about (http://tinyurl.com/n88346q)

What is your definition of a great race horse?

I wont consider him great until he wins the TC AND beats older horses in the Breeders Cup. Plus, if his final times are never that impressive, he will have to win multiple races as a 4 year old like the other great ones did. He is far from great at this point.

[BlinkersOn]

I would like to think we are going to have a TC winner. If it went on looks alone, AP is the best muscled horse I've seen in years. If anyone can do it, I think he can. That being said, I know there are well rested horses that could well spoil it. I'm going to keep on hoping he can do it though. He's certainly a gorgeous specimen of a horse. He will be retiring to stud whether he wins or not. Today's horses are bred for speed, and not stamina. I hope he proves to be the horse to break the hex that has been winning the TC for the first time in years.

[Robert Goren]

He was a fresh horse going into the derby and Neither the derby or the Preakness was especially tiring. He looks like he wants more distance. It all depends if he was injured in the Preakness or he gets injured in between races. I think he has about a 60% chance if he is healthy. It is tough to run 3 races in 5 weeks while on Lasix.

[MutuelClerk]

A Triple Crown winner would be good for the game obviously. I just wish it wasn't Baffert or Pletcher training. That's why I wanted CC to really win last year. In hindsight hearing the CC owner spout off the way he did I'm glad he didn't win either. I think Materiality might be AP's biggest challenge. I believe he'll handle the distance and I don't think we've seen his best yet. The huge field in the derby will give him experience and hopefully make him a better racehorse. MY other sleeper is Keen Ice. I liked the way he finished the Derby. I usually root for a TC winner but knowing it's Baffert. I just can't do it.

[horses4courses]

AP strikes me as having an ideal running style for Belmont.
High cruising speed on, or near, the lead.

Forget about closers in the Belmont - unless there's
an insanely fast pace that causes the race to fall apart.

Should it come up wet there on June 6th - look out :eek:

Frosted and Materialty appear to be the main competition.
I'm just not sure that they can hang with this horse, though.

[Zaf]

I voted Yes ! A triple crown winner is long overdue. Haven't seen anything in this crop yet that can run with him.

[ultracapper]

CC looked worn out last year right after the Preakness. AP didn't look like that at all. He looked real good during Espinoza's interview going back to the winner's circle.

AP isn't a need the lead type. If Espinoza can just give him the right ride, which is my biggest concern, he can run this race however he needs to.

He sure looks good running down the stretch. The KD crowd may have got him a bit and Espinoza had to stay in him, but aside from that one, every race I've watched him in he has looked fabulous in the stretch. He's muscular and it shows in the way he runs. He doesn't grind down the stretch, and he doesn't fly down it, he kind of cruises down it.

Nice colt.

[Rex Phinney]

RexPhinny: Your sample size is exceedingly small. To say that on 5 occasions horses going for the Triple crown that did not race at Belmont were beaten by a horse that did run over the Belmont track.

The Belmont is a big race every year and it has been won MANY times by a horse that never ran there until Belmont day. Here are a few examples of Belmont winners that never raced at Belmont Park until the Belmont stakes:

2011-Ruler on Ice
2009-Summer Bird
2007-Rags to Riches
2002-Sarava
2000-Commendable
1998-Victory Gallop
1997-Touch Gold
1988-Risen Star
1990-Go and Go

Certainly based on the data above-- running at Belmont Park in a race is certainly NOT required for a horse to win the Belmont Stakes.

You find 9 out of the last 27 have won there cold turkey. I won't take the time to post the % that is, you're doing good enough at proving my point.

Of those 9 do you know how many ran all 3 TC races? So of the last 27 Belmont stakes how many were won by horses visiting Belmont for the first time AND running their 3rd race in 5 weeks?

[depalma113]

You find 9 out of the last 27 have won there cold turkey. I won't take the time to post the % that is, you're doing good enough at proving my point.

Of those 9 do you know how many ran all 3 TC races? So of the last 27 Belmont stakes how many were won by horses visiting Belmont for the first time AND running their 3rd race in 5 weeks?

I see at least 2

[BlueChip@DRF]

Well. If I've learned one thing in my years of betting horses its that in the Belmont nobody knows Anything until that last 1/16. those last 6-7 seconds will tell the tale

+1

[Rex Phinney]

I see at least 2

I see the same. So of the last 27 Belmont Stakes 2 have been won by a horse running there for the first time AND having run in all three TC races.

7.4% (and none in the last 17 years)

[KingChas]

The only obstacle I might see, has to do with the breeding of AP, but I think it is very possible to outrun his ancestors and score a big win...

http://www.pedigreequery.com/american+pharoah

Some Belmont winners are his ancestors.
Empire Maker his grandpa on the dad's side.
Then check out his great great great grandpa on the mom's side.
Won't outrun this #1...........Clue 1973.......... :ThmbUp:

[Frost king]

The last four two-year-old champions, to win both the Derby and Preakness went on to win the Triple Crown. Their names were Citation, Secretariat, Seattle Slew and Affirmed. Saw that in the DRF today.

[RXB]

Actually, the last 2YO champ to win the Derby & Preakness was Spectacular Bid.

Mighty spiffy company, those five.

[DeltaLover]

http://www.pedigreequery.com/american+pharoah

Some Belmont winners are his ancestors.
Empire Maker his grandpa on the dad's side.
Then check out his great great great grandpa on the mom's side.
Won't outrun this #1...........Clue 1973.......... :ThmbUp:

The question marks have to do with his "tail female" (bottom) line. Of course his top has Empire Maker who won the Belmont. Still, the (few) question marks rely on his bottom line (which really is his family), (Secretariat is not part of his tail, at least not by the definition I know).. I will analyse his female family in a blog post before the race.

[Redboard]

What is that definition of insanity? How many times does Lucy have to pull the football away before Charlie Brown gets it? From my perspective, American Pharoah is 0 for his last 12.

[nijinski]

The question marks have to do with his "tail female" (bottom) line. Of course his top has Empire Maker who won the Belmont. Still, the (few) question marks rely on his bottom line (which really is his family), (Secretariat is not part of his tail, at least not by the definition I know).. I will analyse his female family in a blog post before the race.

I've mentioned before to rely on his breeding at this point doesn't
mean much. He should be a sprinter or a mile at the most according
to his female side and that DI .
He's already defied and outrun what he looks like in pedigree !

[horses4courses]

CC looked worn out last year right after the Preakness

CC really looked dull to me in the Belmont post parade.
He had a shining coat and was full of himself in his previous races.
Not the same horse in New York.
Had he not hurt himself, who knows?
I felt at the time, though, that it wasn't going to be his day.

AP, hopefully, will be more himself.
But if he looks lack luster, I'll be searching for some value.

[DeltaLover]

He's already defied and outrun what he looks like in pedigree !

:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

Very nice point.. Agree 100%

[LemonSoupKid]

The response still would be that he was near a relatively easy pace even though he went wide in the Derby,and that he only face 8 in the Preakness on a surface he liked much better than them, and got the lead.

also, 1.5 is exponentially longer. Others are bred more for distance, more well rested, and some have trained or run at the track (Curlinate, madefromlucky, etc)

[f2tornado]

He's already defied and outrun what he looks like in pedigree !

I don't know. The horse is winning but nothing in his raw winning times, BSFs, Brisnet figures, competition (beating a nw2 in Preakness), etc. suggest the horse is truly outrunning the pedigree. Maybe barely breaking 100 BSF is the new standard these days otherwise a 102 BSF in the Preakness would have lost 20 of the last 24 renditions. The 105 BSF in the Derby is in the bottom third since 1991. The 100 Derby Brisnet figure was on par with Giacomo for lowest in last 15 years. Very few of the three year old horses this year have even broken a 100 BSF. So, is this just a lousy crop or is a 100 BSF the new normal for top level 3 year olds? I'm simply having a hard time being impressed with the Pharoah but perhaps I'm looking at it too much from a historical perspective.

[f2tornado]

Below are the Preakness Beyer figures since 1991. Note Pharoah is tied for 4th lowest. If one is to believe the rain makes that figure suspect then consider his 105 Derby is still on the low end of history. What's interesting here is Big Brown and Real Quiet had very weak Preakness BSFs relative to recent history then lost the Crown in Belmont. Chrome's 105 was 7th from bottom on the list and he failed too. Of course some much stronger performing horses failed as well. The winning horse in Belmont need not complete that race with a 100 BSF in recent years so maybe this is meaningless but on the other hand, perhaps Chrome, Big Brown, and Real Quiet were simply over-hyped horses relative to their performances. AP's BSFs, Brisnet figures, and Roman PFs have been pretty steady and it's not hard to imagine him getting beat in a couple weeks without a performance bump.

2015 American Pharoah 102
2014 California Chrome 105
2013 Oxbow 106
2012 I’ll Have Another 109
2011 Shackleford 103
2010 Lookin at Lucky 102
2009 Rachel Alexandra 108
2008 Big Brown 100
2007 Curlin 111
2006 Bernardini 113
2005 Afleet Alex 112
2004 Smarty Jones 118
2003 Funny Cide 114
2002 War Emblem 109
2001 Point Given 111
2000 Red Bullet 109
1999 Charismatic 107
1998 Real Quiet 101
1997 Silver Charm 118
1996 Louis Quatorze 112
1995 Timber Country 106
1994 Tabasco Cat 112
1993 Prairie Bayou 98
1992 Pine Bluff 104
1991 Hansel 116

[Dahoss2002]

I don't know. The horse is winning but nothing in his raw winning times, BSFs, Brisnet figures, competition (beating a nw2 in Preakness), etc. suggest the horse is truly outrunning the pedigree. Maybe barely breaking 100 BSF is the new standard these days otherwise a 102 BSF in the Preakness would have lost 20 of the last 24 renditions. The 105 BSF in the Derby is in the bottom third since 1991. The 100 Derby Brisnet figure was on par with Giacomo for lowest in last 15 years. Very few of the three year old horses this year have even broken a 100 BSF. So, is this just a lousy crop or is a 100 BSF the new normal for top level 3 year olds? I'm simply having a hard time being impressed with the Pharoah but perhaps I'm looking at it too much from a historical perspective.

I do not think it is a lousy crop. The buzz going into the Derby was the win % of the top contenders. The NW2 happened to beat the "other" horses that ran in the Derby after AP ran them off their feet, not like he really threatened AP . He may not win the Belmont, (I THINK HE WILL), but his class is evident. Am I gonna make a big win bet on him......no...., might key Pletcher's entries with him just for fun and War Story too. Really just wanna watch this one.

[BlueChip@DRF]

I do not think it is a lousy crop. The buzz going into the Derby was the win % of the top contenders. The NW2 happened to beat the "other" horses that ran in the Derby after AP ran them off their feet, not like he really threatened AP . He may not win the Belmont, (I THINK HE WILL), but his class is evident. Am I gonna make a big win bet on him......no...., might key Pletcher's entries with him just for fun and War Story too. Really just wanna watch this one.

And then.... Dammit! I shoulda kept it simple with the Win bet.... :cool:

[Rex Phinney]

I do not think it is a lousy crop. The buzz going into the Derby was the win % of the top contenders. The NW2 happened to beat the "other" horses that ran in the Derby after AP ran them off their feet, not like he really threatened AP . He may not win the Belmont, (I THINK HE WILL), but his class is evident. Am I gonna make a big win bet on him......no...., might key Pletcher's entries with him just for fun and War Story too. Really just wanna watch this one.

So far AP has really only run against the entire crop once.

The Preakness was a train wreck of a race both from a talent and a conditions point of view.

[Dahoss2002]

So far AP has really only run against the entire crop once.

The Preakness was a train wreck of a race both from a talent and a conditions point of view.

AP, Dortmund, and Firing Line ran around the Churchill oval 1-2-3 the whole race. Yess......I wanna give Carpe Diem and Materiality a second chance..and maybe another longshot but do not let your eyes deceive you :)

[bobphilo]

Below are the Preakness Beyer figures since 1991. Note Pharoah is tied for 4th lowest. If one is to believe the rain makes that figure suspect then consider his 105 Derby is still on the low end of history. What's interesting here is Big Brown and Real Quiet had very weak Preakness BSFs relative to recent history then lost the Crown in Belmont. Chrome's 105 was 7th from bottom on the list and he failed too. Of course some much stronger performing horses failed as well. The winning horse in Belmont need not complete that race with a 100 BSF in recent years so maybe this is meaningless but on the other hand, perhaps Chrome, Big Brown, and Real Quiet were simply over-hyped horses relative to their performances. AP's BSFs, Brisnet figures, and Roman PFs have been pretty steady and it's not hard to imagine him getting beat in a couple weeks without a performance bump.

2015 American Pharoah 102
2014 California Chrome 105
2013 Oxbow 106
2012 I’ll Have Another 109
2011 Shackleford 103
2010 Lookin at Lucky 102
2009 Rachel Alexandra 108
2008 Big Brown 100
2007 Curlin 111
2006 Bernardini 113
2005 Afleet Alex 112
2004 Smarty Jones 118
2003 Funny Cide 114
2002 War Emblem 109
2001 Point Given 111
2000 Red Bullet 109
1999 Charismatic 107
1998 Real Quiet 101
1997 Silver Charm 118
1996 Louis Quatorze 112
1995 Timber Country 106
1994 Tabasco Cat 112
1993 Prairie Bayou 98
1992 Pine Bluff 104
1991 Hansel 116
This would be relevant if AP was running against previous Preakness winners. However he is running against a crop that the has consistently outperformed. Very different story.
While his Beyers compared to previous years were not exceptional, according to Thorograph, the most accurate speed figures, his Derby was one of the best on in history because they count the very important factor of ground loss.

[pandy]

This would be relevant if AP was running against previous Preakness winners. However he is running against a crop that the has consistently outperformed. Very different story.
While his Beyers compared to previous years were not exceptional, according to Thorograph, the most accurate speed figures, his Derby was one of the best on in history because they count the very important factor of ground loss.


You do realize that all of those horses that won the first two legs and lost the Belmont had consistently outperformed the current crop. I guess you bet all of those horses.

The speed figures and the horse's individual closing fractions do matter from a historical perspective. It gives us a perspective of how dominant the horse is at these longer distances. There's no question that this is a fast horse, and a top colt. But is he a great horse? Is he a lock in the Belmont? Or is he another California Chrome, Smarty Jones, Funny Cide, etc., real nice colts that were not great horses.

[f2tornado]

This would be relevant if AP was running against previous Preakness winners. However he is running against a crop that the has consistently outperformed. Very different story.
While his Beyers compared to previous years were not exceptional, according to Thorograph, the most accurate speed figures, his Derby was one of the best on in history because they count the very important factor of ground loss.

I agree to a point on your first note. Previous years' runners have no input in future races. Yes, AP has beat most of his pending Belmont competition but I'd argue running a 12F race is like running against an entirely different field. My point was based on AP's speed figures, he is a very vulnerable favorite in the Belmont. It may not take more than a below average Belmont performance to beat him. There are about half dozen contenders that have a last out or second to last out Brisnet speed figure within a point or two of AP. It's not like he's head and shoulders about the crowd here. I'm not going to argue about who puts out the best speed or performance figures as they all have certain positive attributes that others may or may not have. Lots of horses have come from the outside to win the Derby and no speed figure factors in the trip and AP has had very easy ones.

[pandy]

Awarding points for ground loss racing off the inside seems to make sense but does it? Take 10 Hall of Fame jockeys and ask them, in this year's Derby, if you were riding American Pharoah, would you want the trip he had stalking the pace on the outside, or would you have wanted to be on the lead under pressure from Firing Line the way Dortmud was? In a 10 furlong race with these lightly raced horses all going that distance for the first time, I think almost all of the jockeys would prefer to be stalking on the outside.

If you're going to have performance figures and give horses extra points for racing wide then you would also have to give points for cutting the pace under pressure, which in my opinion is more difficult, but I don't think Thoroughgraph does that. That's why a raw speed figure based on final time is still the best. Let the handicappers decide how to interpret or adjust the figure.

[bobphilo]

You do realize that all of those horses that won the first two legs and lost the Belmont had consistently outperformed the current crop. I guess you bet all of those horses.

The speed figures and the horse's individual closing fractions do matter from a historical perspective. It gives us a perspective of how dominant the horse is at these longer distances. There's no question that this is a fast horse, and a top colt. But is he a great horse? Is he a lock in the Belmont? Or is he another California Chrome, Smarty Jones, Funny Cide, etc., real nice colts that were not great horses.

Why do you keep misquoting me? I have never said that AP is a great horse and a "lock " to win the Belmont. I'm just pointing out that he is the best of his crop and it is foolish to bet against in the Belmont. All of these nit picking arguments that diminish his ability just fall apart under the light of logical analysis. All comparisons with horses that ran previously are irrelevant since he is not running against them. If you think that betting against him is such a "great opportunity" please say who you think is better than him and why. That would be the only relevant argument.

[pandy]

But my point is, the other horses than won the first two legs and lost the Belmont also looked good on paper. Chrome looked just as tough coming into the Belmont last year as this horse does. I didn't think he was a good bet at all, that's why I bet Tonalist. Win or lose, AP is going to be a big underlay. It is not anymore foolish to bet against him that it was many others who failed to win the third leg.

[sbcaris]

Its not a question as to who is better than American Pharaoh. None of the entries in the Belmont are nearly as accomplished. American Pharaoh is clearly the best to this point. However, the Belmont over the last three decades or so has been very unkind to the best horse in the field and the best horse going for the Triple Crown has consistently lost in the third leg.

It is also true that American Pharaoh is not running against history but is running against 10 other three year olds from this crop only. It is possible he might win the Triple Crown but I will wager against that happening simply because the three races run within a 5 week period is asking too much of a horse (let alone trying to win at 12 furlongs in the third leg is like the kiss of death for a horse that has run in all three legs and is leg weary to say the least).

[bobphilo]

You do realize that all of those horses that won the first two legs and lost the Belmont had consistently outperformed the current crop. I guess you bet all of those horses.

The speed figures and the horse's individual closing fractions do matter from a historical perspective. It gives us a perspective of how dominant the horse is at these longer distances. There's no question that this is a fast horse, and a top colt. But is he a great horse? Is he a lock in the Belmont? Or is he another California Chrome, Smarty Jones, Funny Cide, etc., real nice colts that were not great horses.

I don't know how many times it needs to be said that any comparisons to horses in past years is irrelevant since he is not racing against them.
For your information I have bet against what I thought were false favorites in the Belmont and have stated as much if you bothered to read my posts. I have also said that at 2/5 I would NOT bet AP but I also would not bet against him unless I believed a particular horse would beat him. I have yet to hear any mention of who this mystery horse is, let alone why to bet him. This will probably be a race to sit back and enjoy watching history being made. How in the world can anyone handicap a race without analyzing the chances of all the horses. You have stated that you are sick of all the hype surrounding AP's Triple Crown bid. Well so am I. But fortunately neither the horse nor I give a hoot about all the hoopla as it will have no effect on his chances of winning. If you think that he will be overbet don't bet him, but I have yet to hear a word who you think will beat him.

[bobphilo]

Its not a question as to who is better than American Pharaoh. None of the entries in the Belmont are nearly as accomplished. American Pharaoh is clearly the best to this point. However, the Belmont over the last three decades or so has been very unkind to the best horse in the field and the best horse going for the Triple Crown has consistently lost in the third leg.

It is also true that American Pharaoh is not running against history but is running against 10 other three year olds from this crop only. It is possible he might win the Triple Crown but I will wager against that happening simply because the three races run within a 5 week period is asking too much of a horse (let alone trying to win at 12 furlongs in the third leg is like the kiss of death for a horse that has run in all three legs and is leg weary to say the least).

Finally, a rational argument stating why the Triple Crown grind can compromise the chances of all the horses running in all 3 races, not just the winners. This is an important factor to consider but not the only one. Just saying all one has to do is bet against AP without knowing who will beat him is just poor and negative handicapping. Some people just like to knock favorites, worthy ones or not.

[Robert Fischer]

2 things at play

1) Opinion of the Horse (is he good)

2) Opinion of Feat (is this asking too much)



Horse - I think this is an elite horse. He's a more talented, more relaxed version of California Chrome. I compare him to Bernardini (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d2AdqHEOVns)as far as some similarities. I think he has contrasting styles but similar talent to Big Brown and Curlin. I feel he's the best 3yo at this time and have no reason to believe that distance will be an issue.
However, a variety of opinions about the quality of the horse are bound to exist. If we all agreed, we wouldn't have this great game of ours.

Feat - History has shown (37years!) that the Triple Crown is hard!
We can use logic to tell us that this is an independent event - that is, this year has nothing to do with chrome or big brown or smarty jones, either being 'due' or being 'cold'.
However, there could be logical factors that make this hard.
Does the schedule demand something physical that American Pharoah and these others can't stand up to?
This horse had a grueling Kentucky Derby. However, he had a virtual workout in the Preakness. He also has the top trainer. I don't see signs of decline, but others may.
What about the Belmont for the jockey? - Can be a tough race for jockeys, depending on how it unfolds. I happen to think that the 'trip' is the biggest risk for AP. He can't afford an awful ride. He can't afford to duel a speed horse AND a live late-runner. There's a risk in going to the front and being asked to go too fast or hounded. There's some risk in allowing a speed to cruise on the front and get brave...


just some ideas about different angles to consider from horse to feat.

[bobphilo]

Awarding points for ground loss racing off the inside seems to make sense but does it? Take 10 Hall of Fame jockeys and ask them, in this year's Derby, if you were riding American Pharoah, would you want the trip he had stalking the pace on the outside, or would you have wanted to be on the lead under pressure from Firing Line the way Dortmud was? In a 10 furlong race with these lightly raced horses all going that distance for the first time, I think almost all of the jockeys would prefer to be stalking on the outside.

If you're going to have performance figures and give horses extra points for racing wide then you would also have to give points for cutting the pace under pressure, which in my opinion is more difficult, but I don't think Thoroughgraph does that. That's why a raw speed figure based on final time is still the best. Let the handicappers decide how to interpret or adjust the figure.

Yes I believe that horses should get credit for taking part in a fast pace which Timeform and several other figures include, but one cannot dispute that horses running wide should get credit for going a longer distance. Raw final times are a terrible indicator of a horses performance unless you believe that all tracks are identical every day. Qurin's study proves that even such an old-fashioned variant like in the DRF improves the accuracy of speed figures. If you prefer to make your own variant, as I used to do when I had the time, then be prepared to spend an awful lot of time every day doing so. Otherwise use a reliable source of speed figures that go beyond just crude final times.

Yes in the case of AP's trip in the Derby because, as Espinoza knew, he was much the best and could afford to give away all that ground rather than risk traffic problems.

[f2tornado]

I'm just pointing out that he is the best of his crop and it is foolish to bet against in the Belmont.

Nothing foolish betting against the horse that effectively has same Brisnet speed figures as five other potentail entrants in the race in last out or second to last out. Further, Espinoza must get lost on that track given his something like 2-65 record there. Materiality and Frosted have higher figures and neither running style is a hindrance here. Madefromlucky had a nice trip over the track in Peter Pan posting a 99 Bris speed figure. We saw that card last year. Sure, the horse got smoked at Oaklawn but different distance and track this time. Perhaps the better question would be, "Why should I bet on 4/5 chalk with a number of strikes against?"

[Relwob Owner]

Nothing foolish betting against the horse that effectively has same Brisnet speed figures as five other potentail entrants in the race in last out or second to last out. Further, Espinoza must get lost on that track given his something like 2-65 record there. Materiality and Frosted have higher figures and neither running style is a hindrance here. Madefromlucky had a nice trip over the track in Peter Pan posting a 99 Bris speed figure. We saw that card last year. Sure, the horse got smoked at Oaklawn but different distance and track this time. Perhaps the better question would be, "Why should I bet on 4/5 chalk with a number of strikes against?"

Haven't needed to post on this thread since you have pretty much mirrored all of my thoughts. I think Espinoza's lack of success at Belmont and the fact that he definitely has the potential for a riding clunker from time to time. I would say, though, that AP will be much lower odds and that this is a great betting opportunity with Materiality or Frosted. Good luck to ya.

[thaskalos]

Yes I believe that horses should get credit for taking part in a fast pace which Timeform and several other figures include, but one cannot dispute that horses running wide should get credit for going a longer distance. Raw final times are a terrible indicator of a horses performance unless you believe that all tracks are identical every day. Qurin's study proves that even such an old-fashioned variant like in the DRF improves the accuracy of speed figures. If you prefer to make your own variant, as I used to do when I had the time, then be prepared to spend an awful lot of time every day doing so. Otherwise use a reliable source of speed figures that go beyond just crude final times.

Yes in the case of AP's trip in the Derby because, as Espinoza knew, he was much the best and could afford to give away all that ground rather than risk traffic problems.
Horses who find themselves away from the rail around the turns do indeed deserve extra credit for their wide moves...but I find that they keep making those wide moves over and over, and they never run back to the elevated figures that their prior wide trips have garnered. If I give a wide-moving horse a higher figure because of ground loss...then I'd like to see this horse save some ground in his subsequent start. If he keeps racing wide...then the ground loss adjustment is moot, IMO.

PS...

I apologize for the "thumbs down" sign at the title of my post here. I don't know how it got there...and I can't get rid of it. :)

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Horses who find themselves away from the rail around the turns do indeed deserve extra credit for their wide moves...but I find that they keep making those wide moves over and over, and they never run back to the elevated figures that their prior wide trips have garnered. If I give a wide-moving horse a higher figure because of ground loss...then I'd like to see this horse save some ground in his subsequent start. If he keeps racing wide...then the ground loss adjustment is moot, IMO.

PS...

I apologize for the "thumbs down" sign at the title of my post here. I don't know how it got there...and I can't get rid of it. :)

100% agree.

At some point in time a horse that always runs wide or always finds trouble is simply a horse that always runs wide or always finds trouble and no adjustments are needed. They are who they are and if put in a 1 horse race they may well finish 2nd.

[pandy]

100% agree.

At some point in time a horse that always runs wide or always finds trouble is simply a horse that always runs wide or always finds trouble and no adjustments are needed. They are who they are and if put in a 1 horse race they may well finish 2nd.

California Chrome is a horse that races better wide and is horrible racing inside. So when he's wide stalking the pace, he is exactly where he wants to be so I would not consider giving him extra points. My point is, some horses prefer that exact trip.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

California Chrome is a horse that races better wide and is horrible racing inside. So when he's wide stalking the pace, he is exactly where he wants to be so I would not consider giving him extra points. My point is, some horses prefer that exact trip.

CC is a bit of an exception in that he has won races running wide. If a horse runs wide and wins, all the more respect is due.

My post was more along the lines that horses that run wide (consistently), and finish a bit up the track, are going to somehow change gears, get a good trip, and hit the board "this time", if not even win.

[Steve R]

Horses who find themselves away from the rail around the turns do indeed deserve extra credit for their wide moves...but I find that they keep making those wide moves over and over, and they never run back to the elevated figures that their prior wide trips have garnered. If I give a wide-moving horse a higher figure because of ground loss...then I'd like to see this horse save some ground in his subsequent start. If he keeps racing wide...then the ground loss adjustment is moot, IMO.

PS...

I apologize for the "thumbs down" sign at the title of my post here. I don't know how it got there...and I can't get rid of it. :)
This is always a fascinating subject to me, especially every time I see awesome moves on the outside.

Newton's first law: Every object in a state of uniform motion tends to remain in that state of motion unless an external force is applied to it.

As applied to racing it means that if a horse is running on the backstretch, a force must be applied to deviate from the straight path into the turn. On the turn, centripetal forces come into play and that force is dependent on the radius of the curve. The larger the radius, the lower the force (or energy) required to maintain the arc of the curve. In practical terms it means that horses on the outside on a turn require less energy to maintain their speed through the turn. Said another way, a horse on the outside can run faster through the turn using the same energy than he could if he was on the inside.

Assume a quarter mile (1320 ft)semi-circular turn. It has a radius of 420.17 ft. Imagine one horse running right on the radius and another running 8 ft further out. The horse on the inside maintains a speed of 55.00 ft/sec. Centripetal force calculations tell us that the horse on the outside can expend an identical amount of energy at 55.07 ft/sec. In other words he can run faster without expending additional energy because the tighter turn on the inside requires more energy to maintain the arc of the path.

It gets more complicated when you include a horse's lean angle. In the above example, if the inside horse is leaning at, say, 12.61 deg at 55.00 ft/sec, the horse on the outside can maintain a lean angle of 11.61 deg and, expending the same energy as the inside horse, maintain a speed of 55.37 ft/sec. As many of you may have seen in motorcycle racing, the riders have to lean more on tighter turns. The same is true in horse racing. The tighter turn on the inside requires a greater lean angle than does a wider outside turn. And there are other factors that come into play that make the situation even more complicated.

In any case, about 20 years ago, a military engineer and frequent contributor to the Derby List internet forum named Larry Wellman published a technical article called "Dynamics of Turns in Horse Racing." In one example where he used bank angle instead of lean angle his calculations determined that when you compare the 1-path with 0.0 degree bank angle against the 4-path with a 3.5 degree bank angle the horse in the 4-path runs only about 0.15 sec (less than a length) slower for a 6f race even though he runs 33 ft (about 3 lengths) farther on the turn than does the 1-horse. His calculation model led to the conclusion that "any service that corrects for trip on the turns is adding some additional noise in their product."

[BlinkersOn]

Working AP at Churchill is nothing like Belmont. It could mean the loss of the TC for sure for AP. You think Baffert would have learned something after doing the same thing 3 times before and losing.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Working AP at Churchill is nothing like Belmont. It could mean the loss of the TC for sure for AP. You think Baffert would have learned something after doing the same thing 3 times before and losing.

Yep.

You know better than Baffert.

I mean seriously, people put way tooo iuch into this stuff.

[pandy]

This is always a fascinating subject to me, especially every time I see awesome moves on the outside.

Newton's first law: Every object in a state of uniform motion tends to remain in that state of motion unless an external force is applied to it.

As applied to racing it means that if a horse is running on the backstretch, a force must be applied to deviate from the straight path into the turn. On the turn, centripetal forces come into play and that force is dependent on the radius of the curve. The larger the radius, the lower the force (or energy) required to maintain the arc of the curve. In practical terms it means that horses on the outside on a turn require less energy to maintain their speed through the turn. Said another way, a horse on the outside can run faster through the turn using the same energy than he could if he was on the inside.

Assume a quarter mile (1320 ft)semi-circular turn. It has a radius of 420.17 ft. Imagine one horse running right on the radius and another running 8 ft further out. The horse on the inside maintains a speed of 55.00 ft/sec. Centripetal force calculations tell us that the horse on the outside can expend an identical amount of energy at 55.07 ft/sec. In other words he can run faster without expending additional energy because the tighter turn on the inside requires more energy to maintain the arc of the path.

It gets more complicated when you include a horse's lean angle. In the above example, if the inside horse is leaning at, say, 12.61 deg at 55.00 ft/sec, the horse on the outside can maintain a lean angle of 11.61 deg and, expending the same energy as the inside horse, maintain a speed of 55.37 ft/sec. As many of you may have seen in motorcycle racing, the riders have to lean more on tighter turns. The same is true in horse racing. The tighter turn on the inside requires a greater lean angle than does a wider outside turn. And there are other factors that come into play that make the situation even more complicated.

In any case, about 20 years ago, a military engineer and frequent contributor to the Derby List internet forum named Larry Wellman published a technical article called "Dynamics of Turns in Horse Racing." In one example where he used bank angle instead of lean angle his calculations determined that when you compare the 1-path with 0.0 degree bank angle against the 4-path with a 3.5 degree bank angle the horse in the 4-path runs only about 0.15 sec (less than a length) slower for a 6f race even though he runs 33 ft (about 3 lengths) farther on the turn than does the 1-horse. His calculation model led to the conclusion that "any service that corrects for trip on the turns is adding some additional noise in their product."


Very interesting. You just have to watch the riders, they often purposely put their horse in the three of four path and they get paid to win races. If the inside was so great everyone would ride like Calvin Borel, but they don't. The rail is great when you get a great rail trip, such as being lose on the lead. I still think that Dortmund had just as tough a trip or tougher in the Derby than American Pharoah. Yes Dortmund was on the inside but he was setting the pace under pressure. I can't remember the last horse that went wire to wire under pressure in the Kentucky Derby. War Emblem, Spend A Buck, Winning Colors, they went wire to wire but they were on a clear lead through out. And it's been 14 years since a horse went wire to wire in the Derby. A lot more horses have won with the trip that American Pharoah had.

[ArlJim78]

Dortmund had two cracks at AP, once with a rail lead and a moderate pace, the other stalking a fast pace on the outside. Both attempts yielded similar results.

[Relwob Owner]

Dortmund had two cracks at AP, once with a rail lead and a moderate pace, the other stalking a fast pace on the outside. Both attempts yielded similar results.

His second try, he had an incredible amount of mud and slop flying in his face and obviously did not care for it.

[pandy]

Dortmund had two cracks at AP, once with a rail lead and a moderate pace, the other stalking a fast pace on the outside. Both attempts yielded similar results.

That doesn't meant that Dortmund can't beat him. Sunday Silence beat Easy Goer in the Derby and the Preakness. Easy Goer was my Best Bet of the century when he beat Sunday Silence in the Belmont. But there are countless examples in the Triple Crown series alone when a horse that was beaten in the Derby and Preakness came back to beat the same horses in the Belmont. And even though Affirmed beat Alydar in all three T.C. races, Alydar did beat Affirmed 3 times in his career. Just because a horse beats a horse once or twice doesn't mean that he will always beat him.

And again, you missed my point, Dortmund tried to win the Derby with a trip that virtually never wins the Derby, setting the pace on a contested lead. I can't remember the last time a horse won that way. Plenty of horses have won with the trip that A.P. had.

[thaskalos]

I don't know if a stablemate could be expected to foil a TC bid at this late stage in the game... :)

[DeltaLover]

AP is (at least) one class better than Dortmund . The latter can only hope in something exceptional to happen in order to beat the former.. Someone who still thinks the opposite is simply a romantic handicapper who does not want to accept the factual reality.

[Bullet Plane]

From what I've read,

Dortmund is not going to be running in the Belmont Stakes.

[depalma113]

Working AP at Churchill is nothing like Belmont. It could mean the loss of the TC for sure for AP. You think Baffert would have learned something after doing the same thing 3 times before and losing.


2:26.80 is the fastest time recorded in the Belmont Stakes in the last 20 years.

The horse that did it trained at Churchill. He ran in all 3 legs of the Triple Crown and was trained by Bob Baffert.

[f2tornado]

2:26.80 is the fastest time recorded in the Belmont Stakes in the last 20 years.

The horse that did it trained at Churchill. He ran in all 3 legs of the Triple Crown and was trained by Bob Baffert.

Agree. Much adieu about nothing. That said, Gary Stevens was riding that pony and he had previous success in the Belmont. Espinoza, for one reason or another, is stone cold there. AP is no Point Given who won the Belmont with a 114 BSF. I don't think Espinoza is a liability at the track but he might not be an asset like Gary Stevens or Mike Smith.

[pandy]

Working AP at Churchill is nothing like Belmont. It could mean the loss of the TC for sure for AP. You think Baffert would have learned something after doing the same thing 3 times before and losing.


If this horse fails to win the Belmont, it's not going to be because of Bob Baffert. There are things about Baffert that I don't like, but he certainly knows how to get a horse ready for a major stakes race. He's one of the best of all time at winning major stakes races.

There are no excuses. I'm sure if he loses, you'll hear a bunch of complaints about the ride that Victor E gave him. That's all bull, too. Either the horse is good enough or he isn't.

[KingChas]

With all the failed attempts on winning the Triple Crown,I will have to agree with Bob Baffert on this one.

"I've been there three times and I came up short, but I really don't think about it now. To me, it's like if it's meant to be, it's meant to be."

[ReplayRandall]

From what I've read,

Dortmund is not going to be running in the Belmont Stakes.

2015 Belmont Stakes probables

American Pharoah -Bob Baffert Victor Espinoza Preakness, 1st
Carpe Diem -Todd Pletcher undecided Ky. Derby, 10th
Conquest Curlinate -Mark Casse Shaun Bridgmohan Peter Pan, 2nd
Frammento -Nick Zito Mike Smith Ky. Derby, 11th
Frosted -Kiaran McLaughlin Joel Rosario Ky. Derby, 4th
Keen Ice -Dale Romans Kent Desormeaux Ky. Derby, 7th
Madefromlucky -Todd Pletcher undecided Peter Pan, 1st
Materiality -Todd Pletcher undecided Ky. Derby, 6th
Mubtaahij -Michael de Kock Irad Ortiz, Jr. Ky. Derby, 8th
Tale of Verve -Dallas Stewart Gary Stevens Preakness, 2nd
War Story -Tom Amoss Colby Hernandez Ky. Derby, 16th

[DeltaLover]

2015 Belmont Stakes probables

American Pharoah -Bob Baffert Victor Espinoza Preakness, 1st
Carpe Diem -Todd Pletcher undecided Ky. Derby, 10th
Conquest Curlinate -Mark Casse Shaun Bridgmohan Peter Pan, 2nd
Frammento -Nick Zito Mike Smith Ky. Derby, 11th
Frosted -Kiaran McLaughlin Joel Rosario Ky. Derby, 4th
Keen Ice -Dale Romans Kent Desormeaux Ky. Derby, 7th
Madefromlucky -Todd Pletcher undecided Peter Pan, 1st
Materiality -Todd Pletcher undecided Ky. Derby, 6th
Mubtaahij -Michael de Kock Irad Ortiz, Jr. Ky. Derby, 8th
Tale of Verve -Dallas Stewart Gary Stevens Preakness, 2nd
War Story -Tom Amoss Colby Hernandez Ky. Derby, 16th

I am wondering what the odds of Madefromlucky are going to be if he enters the race..

[TJDave]

I am wondering what the odds of Madefromlucky are going to be if he enters the race..

Wynn has him currently at 20/1

[SandyW]

If this horse fails to win the Belmont, it's not going to be because of Bob Baffert. There are things about Baffert that I don't like, but he certainly knows how to get a horse ready for a major stakes race. He's one of the best of all time at winning major stakes races.

There are no excuses. I'm sure if he loses, you'll hear a bunch of complaints about the ride that Victor E gave him. That's all bull, too. Either the horse is good enough or he isn't.

You have hit the nail right on the head.

[classhandicapper]

That's why a raw speed figure based on final time is still the best. Let the handicappers decide how to interpret or adjust the figure.

That's my view also.

Measuring the impact of ground loss and pace does does not lend itself to neat formulas. To begin with, it's dependent on accurate ground loss and pace information (which is very complex in the latter case). But beyond that, not all horses have the same degree of brilliance or overall ability, the nature of the track (favoring inside/outside paths, more or less speed favoring, the degree of each) changes from day to day.

I think adjustments like that are fine for time constrained handicappers or people that haven't been watching races for a long time. But once you get to the stage where you are watching replays and taking your own notes, IMO you are better off with just a speed figure and your own subjective analysis about the trip.

[classhandicapper]

AP is (at least) one class better than Dortmund . The latter can only hope in something exceptional to happen in order to beat the former.. Someone who still thinks the opposite is simply a romantic handicapper who does not want to accept the factual reality.

IMO, Dortmund wasn't as sharp in the Derby/Preakness as he was in California. He may not be as good AP anyway, but I suspect he badly needed the rest he's getting.

[classhandicapper]

This is always a fascinating subject to me, especially every time I see awesome moves on the outside.

Newton's first law: Every object in a state of uniform motion tends to remain in that state of motion unless an external force is applied to it.

As applied to racing it means that if a horse is running on the backstretch, a force must be applied to deviate from the straight path into the turn. On the turn, centripetal forces come into play and that force is dependent on the radius of the curve. The larger the radius, the lower the force (or energy) required to maintain the arc of the curve. In practical terms it means that horses on the outside on a turn require less energy to maintain their speed through the turn. Said another way, a horse on the outside can run faster through the turn using the same energy than he could if he was on the inside.

Assume a quarter mile (1320 ft)semi-circular turn. It has a radius of 420.17 ft. Imagine one horse running right on the radius and another running 8 ft further out. The horse on the inside maintains a speed of 55.00 ft/sec. Centripetal force calculations tell us that the horse on the outside can expend an identical amount of energy at 55.07 ft/sec. In other words he can run faster without expending additional energy because the tighter turn on the inside requires more energy to maintain the arc of the path.

It gets more complicated when you include a horse's lean angle. In the above example, if the inside horse is leaning at, say, 12.61 deg at 55.00 ft/sec, the horse on the outside can maintain a lean angle of 11.61 deg and, expending the same energy as the inside horse, maintain a speed of 55.37 ft/sec. As many of you may have seen in motorcycle racing, the riders have to lean more on tighter turns. The same is true in horse racing. The tighter turn on the inside requires a greater lean angle than does a wider outside turn. And there are other factors that come into play that make the situation even more complicated.

In any case, about 20 years ago, a military engineer and frequent contributor to the Derby List internet forum named Larry Wellman published a technical article called "Dynamics of Turns in Horse Racing." In one example where he used bank angle instead of lean angle his calculations determined that when you compare the 1-path with 0.0 degree bank angle against the 4-path with a 3.5 degree bank angle the horse in the 4-path runs only about 0.15 sec (less than a length) slower for a 6f race even though he runs 33 ft (about 3 lengths) farther on the turn than does the 1-horse. His calculation model led to the conclusion that "any service that corrects for trip on the turns is adding some additional noise in their product."

Great Post.

I don't have the education required to calculate all the physics behind ground loss, but I can compare horses' figures from race to race depending on whether they were inside or lost a lot of ground and look at the variations.

I do that every day as part of my track bias analysis of multiple tracks.

I think the impact of ground loss varies from track to track (perhaps track size, banking, general tendency of certain paths to be better or worse etc..) and may be different on turf than dirt. However, the one thing I am close to certain of is that if you adjust a horse's figures for the literal amount of ground loss, you are typically overstating the impact.

I think in general, you are better off thinking of ground loss in terms of extra energy consumption and position gained/lost instead of as an adjustment to final time.

Running 3 wide into a hot pace on the first turn of a route could have a disastrous impact.

Running 4 wide loafing along stalking a slow pace in the position you want to be could be almost a none event.

Trying to make a 4 wide sweep from behind a slow pace on the final turn of a turf race when the horses are just starting to accelerate could be a major positional and energy consumption problem.

[bobphilo]

Great Post.

I don't have the education required to calculate all the physics behind ground loss, but I can compare horses' figures from race to race depending on whether they were inside or lost a lot of ground and look at the variations.

I do that every day as part of my track bias analysis of multiple tracks.

I think the impact of ground loss varies from track to track (perhaps track size, banking, general tendency of certain paths to be better or worse etc..) and may be different on turf than dirt. However, the one thing I am close to certain of is that if you adjust a horse's figures for the literal amount of ground loss, you are typically overstating the impact.

I think in general, you are better off thinking of ground loss in terms of extra energy consumption and position gained/lost instead of as an adjustment to final time.

Running 3 wide into a hot pace on the first turn of a route could have a disastrous impact.

Running 4 wide loafing along stalking a slow pace in the position you want to be could be almost a none event.

Trying to make a 4 wide sweep from behind a slow pace on the final turn of a turf race when the horses are just starting to accelerate could be a major positional and energy consumption problem.

Some good points, Class. Beyer makes a similar point in one of his books where he says that ground loss on the 1st turn, where the pace is faster, is much more significant than on the 2nd turn where they are beginning to slow down.
Except in turf races, where the pace is slower and the horses are really accelerating late, in most dirt races the early pace is almost always faster than the late pace and closers' late acceleration is really an optical illusion due to the fact that they are only decelerating less than the frontrunners.

[Steve R]

Some good points, Class. Beyer makes a similar point in one of his books where he says that ground loss on the 1st turn, where the pace is faster, is much more significant than on the 2nd turn where they are beginning to slow down.
Except in turf races, where the pace is slower and the horses are really accelerating late, in most dirt races the early pace is almost always faster than the late pace and closers' late acceleration is really an optical illusion due to the fact that they are only decelerating less than the frontrunners.
This entire issue raises questions about the degree of usefulness of raw Trakus data since there is no information about the circumstances of lost ground. Also, it makes me wonder a bit about the algorithm for lost ground used by Ragozin et al. Are they simply considering the number of feet lost or do they apply some energy-related component? After all, it's really energy expenditure that is the key as in the Wellman example I cited earlier where a difference of less than a length measured by time is achieved even though running three lengths further by actual distance.

Frankly, I have similar questions about how Ragozin evaluates wind and weight. It seems to me that unless you know the actual surface area being exposed to the wind at every point in the race you have to increase the "noise" because every horse is built differently and their exposed surface areas are also different. As for weight, I've been weight training for 30 years and I know that on a given day what feels like 175 today could easily feel like 200 the next day or 150 the day after that. I assume horses are equally susceptible to "biorhythm" or something like it.

I guess the point is that when you invoke environmental factors (i.e., distance, wind, weight, etc) to adjust your figures you can easily introduce a lot of slack because none of those factors, including the conditions of lost ground, can be measured with the same precision as time.

[bobphilo]

Horses who find themselves away from the rail around the turns do indeed deserve extra credit for their wide moves...but I find that they keep making those wide moves over and over, and they never run back to the elevated figures that their prior wide trips have garnered. If I give a wide-moving horse a higher figure because of ground loss...then I'd like to see this horse save some ground in his subsequent start. If he keeps racing wide...then the ground loss adjustment is moot, IMO.

PS...

I apologize for the "thumbs down" sign at the title of my post here. I don't know how it got there...and I can't get rid of it. :)

I agree. Horses that chronically lose ground because they are always ridden wide can be expected to do so again in the future, just as horses that burn themselves out in the early pace because they cannot be rated, do not deserve higher ratings. However, a horse that is not a chronic ground loser and finds himself wide in a previous race should get credit for the extra distance if he is not likely to go wide again.
Cal Chrome is an example of a horse who is chronically ridden to lose ground and lose races because of misinterpretations of his failure when ridden inside when there were other factors that contributed to his defeat.

[newtothegame]

AP, very nice looking colt! Can he (himself) do it? I guess it is possible considering this crop of 3 year olds hasn't looked impressive to me.

But, as some have mentioned, 12f after two previous short turn around races is bit much (especially when most of us agree that horses are no longer bred for stamina).

The one thing though, that I have barely seen mentioned is the JOCK. We all should realize that a jock plays a major part in this. What will the nerves of Espinoza be like? Will he jump too soon? Too late?? Take him wide?? Stay inside and lay back just off the lead? I am pretty sure that horses don't get nervous because "he is racing for the TC". To the horse, I would imagine its another race and damn my legs hurt! But, to the JOCK, this is EVERYTHING!

Given what could be a leg weary horse, a jock who will almost assuredly be a little anxious (to say the least), I have to say NO! Add in the fact there will be some rested horses and as much as I would love to see the TC won again, it's going to be tough!
JMHO

[BlueChip@DRF]

AP, very nice looking colt! Can he (himself) do it? I guess it is possible considering this crop of 3 year olds hasn't looked impressive to me.

But, as some have mentioned, 12f after two previous short turn around races is bit much (especially when most of us agree that horses are no longer bred for stamina).

The one thing though, that I have barely seen mentioned is the JOCK. We all should realize that a jock plays a major part in this. What will the nerves of Espinoza be like? Will he jump too soon? Too late?? Take him wide?? Stay inside and lay back just off the lead? I am pretty sure that horses don't get nervous because "he is racing for the TC". To the horse, I would imagine its another race and damn my legs hurt! But, to the JOCK, this is EVERYTHING!

Given what could be a leg weary horse, a jock who will almost assuredly be a little anxious (to say the least), I have to say NO! Add in the fact there will be some rested horses and as much as I would love to see the TC won again, it's going to be tough!
JMHO

That's why I'm going with Gary Stevens. He is 10-3-2-1 in The Belmont Stakes. Give him a decent horse and he'll get a decent chance. In a race as long as this, it's not so much about class as it is attrition.

[letswastemoney]

I wrote this post questioning the validity behind the formula that created American Pharoah's Dosage Index.

https://www.ladyandthetrack.com/news/12822/belmont-stakes-2015-questioning-american-pharoahs-dosage.html

Take a look if you want.

[pandy]

I do believe, however, that generally speaking, Dosage does hold up well, meaning that horses with higher Dosage ratings tend to win at a lower percentage in routes and horses with lower numbers win at a higher percentage in routes. Or do I have that wrong? Naturally, nothing's perfect and pedigree analysis of any sort is guess work because not all horses perform according to their lineage.

[Steve R]

I wrote this post questioning the validity behind the formula that created American Pharoah's Dosage Index.

https://www.ladyandthetrack.com/news/12822/belmont-stakes-2015-questioning-american-pharoahs-dosage.html

Take a look if you want.
It's a strawman argument because it's based on the fallacious idea that there are essentially "good" and "bad" Dosage figures. First of all, Dosage refers only to aptitudinal type and in the case of American Pharoah his Dosage figures suggest a modest shift toward speed in his pedigree. It seems quite clear to me, independent of his accomplishments, that he definitely falls in the category of speed-oriented considering his general fast early/slow late profile. Beyond that, I have already published in this forum data displaying the trend of increasing speed in the pedigrees of classic winners. In fact, American Pharoah's figures fall very close to the 75-year classic winner trend line. His pedigree is, in other words, quite typical of contemporary classic horses. I've also noted in this forum that his pedigree isn't what could stop him from winning the Belmont. A much bigger issue is his inability thus far to finish strongly even under relatively moderate early fractions. That said, he only has to beat the horses running against him which I believe do not include Affirmed, Seattle Slew or Secretariat. Finally, a fatal flaw in the article is the notion that because ancestors won at a certain distance that necessarily contributes to the distance capability of their descendants. Sometimes it does, sometimes it doesn't. The whole point of Dosage is that performance in the breeding shed supersedes performance on the track. If it were otherwise it would be hard to explain how Kingmambo, a miler by a sprinter and out of a miler, became one of the world's greatest classic stamina sires or how Slewpy, a Grade 1 winner at 10f by a Triple Crown winner and out of a mare that had produced multiple winners beyond a mile became one of America's premier sprint sires. I suppose one could invoke endless examples in remote generations to explain distance capability, but then of course every horse would qualify as having classic potential. Seriously, it's time to get past this DI 4 barrier when thinking about American classic horses. The trends suggest half of all classic winners will have a DI exceeding that figure within a couple of decades. Besides, the notion of a DI 4 barrier to classic performance was entirely a turf media invention based on a misinterpretation of an observation originally made in 1981 that no Derby winner to that time HAD a DI over that figure, which was true. How that got translated to the idea that no horse with a DI over 4 COULD win the Derby is still a mystery to me.

[RXB]

From the article:

"Maybe if American Pharoah wins the Belmont, his DI will “magically” change. Empire Maker’s DI changed for some reason. The article in this link refers to Empire Maker’s DI as 3.16. In fact, type “Empire Maker Dosage 3.16” into Google and a lot of other articles refer to Empire Maker as having a 3.16 DI. Yet, the official website gives Empire Maker a 1.88. What happened?"

Unbridled was designated as a Brilliant & Intermediate chef-de-race a few years ago, after Empire Maker's career had ended. Apparently the c-d-r site still has Empire Maker's prior dosage numbers. Also needs to correct his birth year from 2001 to 2000.

[LemonSoupKid]

Steve, how do you respond to the problem of recent sires and our uncertainty about their becoming chef-de-race, as in that example of Empire Maker?

Is it that common? Does it matter?

Thanks

[Steve R]

Steve, how do you respond to the problem of recent sires and our uncertainty about their becoming chef-de-race, as in that example of Empire Maker?

Is it that common? Does it matter?

Thanks
It's not an issue for me because, as explained continually for more than 30 years, the methodology was designed only to monitor the evolution of Thoroughbred speed over time and to help understand the developing relationships between speed in a pedigree and performance on the track. Anyone who ever read the original DRF series from 1981 will understand that the development of the concept was largely academic in nature and based on fundamental statistical analysis. That still applies today although though no one is limited in how the information can be used. If studies on smoking indicate a relationship between the rate of consumption and longevity it doesn't mean every three-pack-a-day smoker will die early but it may be information you might consider before taking up the habit.

Neither I nor my colleague in the UK, Steve Miller, feel compelled to add new chefs-de-race that aren't confirmed by rigorous statistical analysis as contributing a definable, prepotent aptitudinal influence to their descendants. That's why you don't see sires such as Danehill and Storm Cat on the list. Regardless of the quality they may transmit, the aptitudinal type they pass along is not consistent or highly predictable in a statistical sense. In any case, to satisfy those who want more we do publish an annual list of speed/stamina characteristics of prominent non-chef-de-race sires at http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/sire_speed_2015.htm. You will note that Empire Maker is shown on the stamina side based on the AWD of his runners. At the same time, the average Dosage figures of those runners are consistent with their current performance and don't require the addition of an aptitudinal influence from him.

[LemonSoupKid]

Thanks for the response.

It looks like Frosted all day for me.

What should we think about Mubtaahij? This one befuddles me, mainly because de Kock clearly must think he can get the job done, or why stay in America?

[pandy]

Thanks for the response.

It looks like Frosted all day for me.

What should we think about Mubtaahij? This one befuddles me, mainly because de Kock clearly must think he can get the job done, or why stay in America?

He won two straight races at 1 and 3/16's including the UAE Derby, and he's bred for stamina. When you look at the history of horse's often bouncing in their first start after shipping from the middle east, his Kentucky Derby could have been an aberration. His connections have said that he has handled the Belmont surface much better than he did Churchill.

Does anyone know how fast he ran his last 3/16's in the UAE Derby? He pulled away quickly.

[depalma113]

If the horse's name is not American Pharoah, he is running for second.

[pandy]

If the horse's name is not American Pharoah, he is running for second.


Just for the record, I went back to last year''s poll on who was For or Against California Chrome to win the Belmont.

Here is a direct quote from you, depalma113 (below)

"He's not losing, so single him on top in everything."

...So last year you were also positive that California Chrome would win the TC. A lot of people were with you, even though Chrome was not impressive winning either the Derby or the Preakness. I gave out Tonalist as my Best Bet in last year's Belmont and I also gave out the exacta.

You posted several posts saying that Chrome was definitely going to win the Belmont. Even though you were wrong, you are back again as positive about AP as you were last year. I'm sure you probably thought that Smarty Jones was a cinch as well, didn't you?

[Steve R]

...Does anyone know how fast he ran his last 3/16's in the UAE Derby? He pulled away quickly.
His fractions:
400m, 26.31
800m, 50.32
1200m, 1:14.51
1600m, 1:39.61
1900m, 1:58.35

[pandy]

His fractions:
400m, 26.31
800m, 50.32
1200m, 1:14.51
1600m, 1:39.61
1900m, 1:58.35

I believe this gives him a final 3/16's of :18.3, which equates to a final quarter of about :24.4. I wonder what sbcaris thinks about this?

It's hard to evaluate given the fact that I have no speed tables for the track and the early fractions were not fast. I'll have to go back and watch the replay again.

[Redboard]

Just for the record, I went back to last year''s poll on who was For or Against California Chrome to win the Belmont.

Here is a direct quote from you, depalma113 (below)

"He's not losing, so single him on top in everything."

...So last year you were also positive that California Chrome would win the TC. A lot of people were with you, even though Chrome was not impressive winning either the Derby or the Preakness. I gave out Tonalist as my Best Bet in last year's Belmont and I also gave out the exacta.

You posted several posts saying that Chrome was definitely going to win the Belmont. Even though you were wrong, you are back again as positive about AP as you were last year. I'm sure you probably thought that Smarty Jones was a cinch as well, didn't you?

So what exactly are you saying Pandy? That AP is definitely not going to win the Belmont this year?

depalma113 may be a little exuberant, but at least he's taking a stand, which I like.

[pandy]

So what exactly are you saying Pandy? That AP is definitely not going to win the Belmont this year?

depalma113 may be a little exuberant, but at least he's taking a stand, which I like.


He thinks AP is a lock but he thought Chrome was a lock last year. Just pointing it out, that's all. Every time a horse wins the first two legs you get millions of people who are positive that he'll win the Triple Crown. I could understand if a horse wins impressively, but like Chrome last year, AP's Derby was a nice win but not impressive. I don't see how you can think this horse is a lock. Just my opinion. The horse will be a big underlay.

[DeltaLover]

He thinks AP is a lock but he thought Chrome was a lock last year. Just pointing it out, that's all. Every time a horse wins the first two legs you get millions of people who are positive that he'll win the Triple Crown. I could understand if a horse wins impressively, but like Chrome last year, AP's Derby was a nice win but not impressive. I don't see how you can think this horse is a lock. Just my opinion. The horse will be a big underlay.


If by “lock” we mean a horse that can loose a race only by exceptional conditions, I believe that AP represents a perfect fit for this definition.

I am not sure, if his superiority over his rivals will continue in the future or he is just more mature and precocious than them but so far, he has clearly proven that he fully dominates his division.

AP is as close to a TC triumph as it can be and most likely he is going to get the job done!

[BlueChip@DRF]

If 8 starters or less: yes
If 9 starters or more: no


I am still prescribing to this. Now, with The Truth Or Else out, there are only a total of 8 starters. We will most likely see a coronation.

[Steve R]

I am still prescribing to this. Now, with The Truth Or Else out, there are only a total of 8 starters. We will most likely see a coronation.
According to belmontstakes.com there are still 9:

American Pharoah
Carpe Diem
Frammento
Frosted
Keen Ice
Madefromlucky
Materiality
Mubtaahij (IRE)
Tale of Verve

Is there another one out I'm unaware of? Thanks.

[BlueChip@DRF]

According to belmontstakes.com there are still 9:

American Pharoah
Carpe Diem
Frammento
Frosted
Keen Ice
Madefromlucky
Materiality
Mubtaahij (IRE)
Tale of Verve

Is there another one out I'm unaware of? Thanks.

Carpe Diem is out. (Bloodhorse) LINK (http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/92302/carpe-diem-will-not-be-entered-in-belmont)

[pandy]

According to belmontstakes.com there are still 9:

American Pharoah
Carpe Diem
Frammento
Frosted
Keen Ice
Madefromlucky
Materiality
Mubtaahij (IRE)
Tale of Verve

Is there another one out I'm unaware of? Thanks.

Oh well, Carpe Diem is out. Too bad. That hurts the race but if he wasn't training well no sense running him.

[RXB]

I wanted him in the race, damnit, he would've taken some money and I didn't like him.

Unless somebody makes a surprise showing at the entry box there's not a lot of early speed signed up for the race. American Pharoah and Materiality should be up front and probably idling by their standards.

[thaskalos]

So what exactly are you saying Pandy? That AP is definitely not going to win the Belmont this year?

depalma113 may be a little exuberant, but at least he's taking a stand, which I like.
He is saying that depalma113 might be prone to irrational exuberance. And I tend to agree.

[depalma113]

I'm sure you probably thought that Smarty Jones was a cinch as well, didn't you?

I bet Birdstone and had absolutely no liking for Smarty Jones at all.

I'm not right all of the time, but so what. I haven't been wrong with AP, I'm not going to start worrying now.

By the way. Single him in every bet. He's not losing.

[pandy]

From my experiences, singling 2/5 shots or betting them at all in any manner, bad bets. In the Belmont, very bad bets. Look at all the money that was lost betting on odds on favorites who won the first two legs, including the last 12 horses that tried. Anyone who bet AP in both the Derby and Preakness should quit while they're ahead. The best time to bet the favorite in these TC races is the Preakness, which is by far the easiest of the three races to win.

The weakness of the Preakness in general is one of the main reasons why these favorites in the Belmont are such big underlays.

[clocker7]

I'm just beginning my duck-for-cover from the PETA/WHOA anti-Baffert hate that is about to inundate horse-racing boards .... :)

[BlueChip@DRF]

You cannot handicap The Belmont as if it were just another race. That extra 25+ seconds or so from the Derby distance doesn't seem like much but is does make a difference. Speed figures don't help. Breeding somewhat helps. The contender's fitness/appearance and jockey smarts/track familiarity seem paramount.

[EMD4ME]

My first post back after a 96 year old smashed his car into a store and took my mother with him (as an innocent pedestrian on a sidewalk) on March 16, 2015.

First, thanks to all for the well wishes. I spent 54 straights days in the hospital trying with all my might to stop my mother's situation from getting worse. As much as i tried, the hospital massacred my poor mother. Nevertheless, like a game racehorse ridden by Jorge Chavez, my mother came back with a valiant recovery. She is damaged but alive. Can't see much after her 2 brain surgeries (caused by negligence of the hospital during her hip surgery) but doing what she can to recover. I refused to send her to rehab and I am tending to her at home. My aunt unfortunately passed on 4/23/15 and mom has no idea she lost her sister. Thanks again to many of you for your best wishes. They were warmly appreciated.

On to the thread at hand. 1 year ago at this time, I definitively stated on this site that Tonalist was a lock in the Belmont and that California Chrome was a hopeless longshot.

I even stated specifically why. Dead rail win in the Peter Pan, CC had dressed up wins in the derby and preakness.

My vote this year is not as definitive as I don't have the winner picked out as there is no Tonalist in the field right now.

However, AP will NOT win the Belmont Stakes. Seriously and without exaggeration, he is an 8/1 - 10/1 shot in my eyes. Why? His Derby and Preakness wins were extremely unimpressive from a visual perspective, especially the tail end of the races. In the derby, his post did him favors as about 10 horses inside of him became sardines after 1/16 of a mile. That created a nice 3 wide fluid stalking trip with little stress involved until the 4th quarter of the race. In the fourth quarter, he spent most of his energy reserves to hold his 3 wide spot and then he spent the rest of the way running in place, up and down out slowing the 2 runner ups home.

He was lucky to be in the 'choose when i want to attack' spot in the Derby. If he had someone to his plank, they might've pressed him into moving earlier, such as in the VERY GOOD third quarter and he would've had a much worse trip than what he encountered in the Derby.

His Derby was even more of an illusion as so many horses lost their race in the first 1/16 of a mile (checking bumping scraping and being rank) and many of them could not rally late (into the pedestrian ending of this Derby) because of their trips.

Yes Victor was too busy celebrating real hard after the wire of the Derby (and was pulling hard on the left rein) but his gallop out was not indicative of a horse that is dying for 1 1/2 miles.

Finally, here were the 3 2 turn route races from Derby Day:

Race 1: 3UP ALW N2X 224 461 1103 1353 1422
Race 11: DERBY 231 471 1111 1362 203
Race 12: 3YO ALW N1X 24 48 1122 1371 1434

I am just not in love with his ALL IN 4th Quarter (albeit 3 wide) after stalking comfortably for 3 quarters. Follow that up with a pacer/trotter like 5th quarter and I have zero confidence in AP finishing the Belmont like a Champion.

As far as the Preakness goes. It was a complete Joke. His 2 main foes (runner ups from the Derby-who also benefited from stress free trips in the Derby) lost all chance in 1 stride of the Preakness. Firing Line lost his race with a stumble in the remnants of a hurricane and his ENTRYMATE (from PP2) made sure he yanked back after 2 strides to allow AP to lead comfortably.

He faced minimal pressure from a weaker horse for a furlong, stayed loose and comfortable over a wet surface which he likes and finished unimpressively over a JBM (just broke maiden). I made no mention of time for the preakness as that monster rainstorm came right before the preakness and made it a hard race to judge.

The 2 runner ups in the preakness galloped out ahead of AP. That is something I would not want to see on any open lengths winner and definitely not something I want to see from a horse who is stretching out to 1 1/2 Miles in just 3 weeks.

You can say I critiqued his Derby gallop out and he still won the Preakness. My response would be 1) preakness is a 1/16 shorter, the Belmont is 5/16 longer than the preakness and 2) the preakness reminded me of many walkovers we've seen in our horse playing days.

Jerry Bailey broke from post 8 with Eddington in 2004. Smarty Jones broke from post 9. I can't help but believe that JD purposely let his horse break a beat slow in that Belmont so that he can control WHEN he attacks Smarty Jones and Stupid Elliot. OOPS :rolleyes: I meant Stewart Elliot. Smarty stalked 3 wide around the Clubhouse Turn and as soon as he cruised to the lead, JD sent Eddington and caused Smarty to rattle off a TREMENDOUS middle half. That cost Smarty the race. Point is, post position will be key. If AP draws unlucky and gets attacked early or mid race, he will most definitely LOSE and be off the board.

If the Belmont is run honestly from a pace perspective (and not like the normal Ortiz boys, Franco's & Cruz's chokeathons etc.) then I hate to say it, AP will be OFF THE BOARD in the Belmont.

[boys at tosconova]

Seriously and without exaggeration, he is an 1/8 - 1/10 shot in my eyes. Why? His Derby and Preakness wins were extremely impressive from a visual perspective.

.

[pandy]

My first post back after a 96 year old smashed his car into a store and took my mother with him (as an innocent pedestrian on a sidewalk) on March 16, 2015.

First, thanks to all for the well wishes. I spent 54 straights days in the hospital trying with all my might to stop my mother's situation from getting worse. As much as i tried, the hospital massacred my poor mother. Nevertheless, like a game racehorse ridden by Jorge Chavez, my mother came back with a valiant recovery. She is damaged but alive. Can't see much after her 2 brain surgeries (caused by negligence of the hospital during her hip surgery) but doing what she can to recover. I refused to send her to rehab and I am tending to her at home. My aunt unfortunately passed on 4/23/15 and mom has no idea she lost her sister. Thanks again to many of you for your best wishes. They were warmly appreciated.

On to the thread at hand. 1 year ago at this time, I definitively stated on this site that Tonalist was a lock in the Belmont and that California Chrome was a hopeless longshot.

I even stated specifically why. Dead rail win in the Peter Pan, CC had dressed up wins in the derby and preakness.

My vote this year is not as definitive as I don't have the winner picked out as there is no Tonalist in the field right now.

However, AP will NOT win the Belmont Stakes. Seriously and without exaggeration, he is an 8/1 - 10/1 shot in my eyes. Why? His Derby and Preakness wins were extremely unimpressive from a visual perspective, especially the tail end of the races. In the derby, his post did him favors as about 10 horses inside of him became sardines after 1/16 of a mile. That created a nice 3 wide fluid stalking trip with little stress involved until the 4th quarter of the race. In the fourth quarter, he spent most of his energy reserves to hold his 3 wide spot and then he spent the rest of the way running in place, up and down out slowing the 2 runner ups home.

He was lucky to be in the 'choose when i want to attack' spot in the Derby. If he had someone to his plank, they might've pressed him into moving earlier, such as in the VERY GOOD third quarter and he would've had a much worse trip than what he encountered in the Derby.

His Derby was even more of an illusion as so many horses lost their race in the first 1/16 of a mile (checking bumping scraping and being rank) and many of them could not rally late (into the pedestrian ending of this Derby) because of their trips.

Yes Victor was too busy celebrating real hard after the wire of the Derby (and was pulling hard on the left rein) but his gallop out was not indicative of a horse that is dying for 1 1/2 miles.

Finally, here were the 3 2 turn route races from Derby Day:

Race 1: 3UP ALW N2X 224 461 1103 1353 1422
Race 11: DERBY 231 471 1111 1362 203
Race 12: 3YO ALW N1X 24 48 1122 1371 1434

I am just not in love with his ALL IN 4th Quarter (albeit 3 wide) after stalking comfortably for 3 quarters. Follow that up with a pacer/trotter like 5th quarter and I have zero confidence in AP finishing the Belmont like a Champion.

As far as the Preakness goes. It was a complete Joke. His 2 main foes (runner ups from the Derby-who also benefited from stress free trips in the Derby) lost all chance in 1 stride of the Preakness. Firing Line lost his race with a stumble in the remnants of a hurricane and his ENTRYMATE (from PP2) made sure he yanked back after 2 strides to allow AP to lead comfortably.

He faced minimal pressure from a weaker horse for a furlong, stayed loose and comfortable over a wet surface which he likes and finished unimpressively over a JBM (just broke maiden). I made no mention of time for the preakness as that monster rainstorm came right before the preakness and made it a hard race to judge.

The 2 runner ups in the preakness galloped out ahead of AP. That is something I would not want to see on any open lengths winner and definitely not something I want to see from a horse who is stretching out to 1 1/2 Miles in just 3 weeks.

You can say I critiqued his Derby gallop out and he still won the Preakness. My response would be 1) preakness is a 1/16 shorter, the Belmont is 5/16 longer than the preakness and 2) the preakness reminded me of many walkovers we've seen in our horse playing days.

Jerry Bailey broke from post 8 with Eddington in 2004. Smarty Jones broke from post 9. I can't help but believe that JD purposely let his horse break a beat slow in that Belmont so that he can control WHEN he attacks Smarty Jones and Stupid Elliot. OOPS :rolleyes: I meant Stewart Elliot. Smarty stalked 3 wide around the Clubhouse Turn and as soon as he cruised to the lead, JD sent Eddington and caused Smarty to rattle off a TREMENDOUS middle half. That cost Smarty the race. Point is, post position will be key. If AP draws unlucky and gets attacked early or mid race, he will most definitely LOSE and be off the board.

If the Belmont is run honestly from a pace perspective (and not like the normal Ortiz boys, Franco's & Cruz's chokeathons etc.) then I hate to say it, AP will be OFF THE BOARD in the Belmont.

Sorry to hear about the accident, terrible situation.

Good analysis, which I agree with. Last year we were in agreement as well, Tonalist was my Best Bet for the exact reasons you mentioned, big race on the dead rail in the Peter Pan, plus he had perfect pedigree for the Belmont. People sometimes forget, too, that according to Bris figs, Tonalist, not Chrome, was the top figure horse in the Belmont. Odds on favorites that don't have the top speed figures are usually bad bets. This year two horses, Frosted and Materiality, both have higher top speed figures than the favorite (although not in their last race as Tonalist had last year). If you go back to the last three Triple Crown winners, they were clearly the top figure horses coming into the Belmont. That's why they were not underlays but probable winners.

[Redboard]

Sorry to hear about your mom. I took care of my mom the last years of her life and nothing was more heart-wrenching yet rewarding. I believe she’s a horse racing fan that frequently attends the track with you? Hopefully, she’ll be well enough to watch the race with you on Saturday and cheer home the next Triple Crown winner.

[BlueChip@DRF]

My first post back after a 96 year old smashed his car into a store and took my mother with him (as an innocent pedestrian on a sidewalk) on March 16, 2015.

First, thanks to all for the well wishes. I spent 54 straights days in the hospital trying with all my might to stop my mother's situation from getting worse. As much as i tried, the hospital massacred my poor mother. Nevertheless, like a game racehorse ridden by Jorge Chavez, my mother came back with a valiant recovery. She is damaged but alive. Can't see much after her 2 brain surgeries (caused by negligence of the hospital during her hip surgery) but doing what she can to recover. I refused to send her to rehab and I am tending to her at home.

This is literally a 'tale of verve'. She is a fighter at will and seems to have passed on that trait to you. Again, my prayers and thoughts are with both of you.

[PaceAdvantage]

My first post back after a 96 year old smashed his car into a store and took my mother with him (as an innocent pedestrian on a sidewalk) on March 16, 2015.

First, thanks to all for the well wishes. I spent 54 straights days in the hospital trying with all my might to stop my mother's situation from getting worse. As much as i tried, the hospital massacred my poor mother. Nevertheless, like a game racehorse ridden by Jorge Chavez, my mother came back with a valiant recovery. She is damaged but alive. Can't see much after her 2 brain surgeries (caused by negligence of the hospital during her hip surgery) but doing what she can to recover. I refused to send her to rehab and I am tending to her at home. My aunt unfortunately passed on 4/23/15 and mom has no idea she lost her sister. Thanks again to many of you for your best wishes. They were warmly appreciated.

On to the thread at hand. 1 year ago at this time, I definitively stated on this site that Tonalist was a lock in the Belmont and that California Chrome was a hopeless longshot.

I even stated specifically why. Dead rail win in the Peter Pan, CC had dressed up wins in the derby and preakness.

My vote this year is not as definitive as I don't have the winner picked out as there is no Tonalist in the field right now.

However, AP will NOT win the Belmont Stakes. Seriously and without exaggeration, he is an 8/1 - 10/1 shot in my eyes. Why? His Derby and Preakness wins were extremely unimpressive from a visual perspective, especially the tail end of the races. In the derby, his post did him favors as about 10 horses inside of him became sardines after 1/16 of a mile. That created a nice 3 wide fluid stalking trip with little stress involved until the 4th quarter of the race. In the fourth quarter, he spent most of his energy reserves to hold his 3 wide spot and then he spent the rest of the way running in place, up and down out slowing the 2 runner ups home.

He was lucky to be in the 'choose when i want to attack' spot in the Derby. If he had someone to his plank, they might've pressed him into moving earlier, such as in the VERY GOOD third quarter and he would've had a much worse trip than what he encountered in the Derby.

His Derby was even more of an illusion as so many horses lost their race in the first 1/16 of a mile (checking bumping scraping and being rank) and many of them could not rally late (into the pedestrian ending of this Derby) because of their trips.

Yes Victor was too busy celebrating real hard after the wire of the Derby (and was pulling hard on the left rein) but his gallop out was not indicative of a horse that is dying for 1 1/2 miles.

Finally, here were the 3 2 turn route races from Derby Day:

Race 1: 3UP ALW N2X 224 461 1103 1353 1422
Race 11: DERBY 231 471 1111 1362 203
Race 12: 3YO ALW N1X 24 48 1122 1371 1434

I am just not in love with his ALL IN 4th Quarter (albeit 3 wide) after stalking comfortably for 3 quarters. Follow that up with a pacer/trotter like 5th quarter and I have zero confidence in AP finishing the Belmont like a Champion.

As far as the Preakness goes. It was a complete Joke. His 2 main foes (runner ups from the Derby-who also benefited from stress free trips in the Derby) lost all chance in 1 stride of the Preakness. Firing Line lost his race with a stumble in the remnants of a hurricane and his ENTRYMATE (from PP2) made sure he yanked back after 2 strides to allow AP to lead comfortably.

He faced minimal pressure from a weaker horse for a furlong, stayed loose and comfortable over a wet surface which he likes and finished unimpressively over a JBM (just broke maiden). I made no mention of time for the preakness as that monster rainstorm came right before the preakness and made it a hard race to judge.

The 2 runner ups in the preakness galloped out ahead of AP. That is something I would not want to see on any open lengths winner and definitely not something I want to see from a horse who is stretching out to 1 1/2 Miles in just 3 weeks.

You can say I critiqued his Derby gallop out and he still won the Preakness. My response would be 1) preakness is a 1/16 shorter, the Belmont is 5/16 longer than the preakness and 2) the preakness reminded me of many walkovers we've seen in our horse playing days.

Jerry Bailey broke from post 8 with Eddington in 2004. Smarty Jones broke from post 9. I can't help but believe that JD purposely let his horse break a beat slow in that Belmont so that he can control WHEN he attacks Smarty Jones and Stupid Elliot. OOPS :rolleyes: I meant Stewart Elliot. Smarty stalked 3 wide around the Clubhouse Turn and as soon as he cruised to the lead, JD sent Eddington and caused Smarty to rattle off a TREMENDOUS middle half. That cost Smarty the race. Point is, post position will be key. If AP draws unlucky and gets attacked early or mid race, he will most definitely LOSE and be off the board.

If the Belmont is run honestly from a pace perspective (and not like the normal Ortiz boys, Franco's & Cruz's chokeathons etc.) then I hate to say it, AP will be OFF THE BOARD in the Belmont.So glad to hear your mom is on the road to recovery...and you're right, hospitals and doctors can sometimes be the worst thing in the world...as a loved one, it is up to you (us) to WATCH THESE PEOPLE LIKE A HAWK...especially the support staff of these doctors, who often times don't give two shits and will often times do the WRONG thing...my hats off to you for your dedication to your mom.

With that said, I think you're wrong about AP. I was anti-CC every single race last year. And I've been anti-AP in the Triple Crown thus far, BUT, I've also had a healthy respect and a healthy FEAR of him, which I've written about before the race.

I even predicted before the Derby was run that if AP won the Derby, he would win the TC, and watching him down the stretch in the Preakness, that thought was only reinforced. Barring some sort of racing mishap or serious traffic trouble, I don't think there is any way AP loses the Belmont.

Of course, this doesn't mean I'm going to bet him.... :lol:

[jettroofer]

Question......everyone keeps stating how his Derby and Preakness 'weren't that impressive.' Aside from obvious trip issues, wouldn't that make the others even more 'unimpressive'. No one can tell me that Madefromlucky is a much better horse than AP. My point, no other horse has been able to challenge him yet. NONE of these horses! I get it....mile and a half, dosage point, pedigree, blah, blah, blah. There is no question he is the best horse and outclasses the rest by a mile.....at this point. I understand he may not win. I've keyed Dort in both previous races trying to beat him myself. I have a healthy respect for this horse now. I think the odds are pointed more towards him winning than losing. I'm a value player and will try to cover the upset but this horse is too good to throw a clunker.

[pandy]

He doesn't have to throw a clunker. Smarty Jones looked just as good on paper and he ran a big race, but he lost, as have others that ran their race, but still lost.

[EMD4ME]

Thank you all sincerely for your kind words. Life literally stopped since that date. It's nice to get distracted for a moment with life's pleasures (Belmont Stakes).

Appreciate all the kind words ....

[EMD4ME]

Question......everyone keeps stating how his Derby and Preakness 'weren't that impressive.' Aside from obvious trip issues, wouldn't that make the others even more 'unimpressive'. No one can tell me that Madefromlucky is a much better horse than AP. My point, no other horse has been able to challenge him yet. NONE of these horses! I get it....mile and a half, dosage point, pedigree, blah, blah, blah. There is no question he is the best horse and outclasses the rest by a mile.....at this point. I understand he may not win. I've keyed Dort in both previous races trying to beat him myself. I have a healthy respect for this horse now. I think the odds are pointed more towards him winning than losing. I'm a value player and will try to cover the upset but this horse is too good to throw a clunker.

IMHO, there was no one to challenge him in the Preakness as there were only 2 pretenders in the race. PPs 2 and 8. 1 was taken out of the way to avoid bothering AP (PP2) and PP8 was drowning in the remnants of the massive rainstorm in his first stride.

In the derby, 10 horses plus lost all shot as they were accordioned in the first 1/16 of a mile. I do not ever remember a field of plus 15 ever running 123 or in this case 321. The top 3 in the derby had dressed up trips. They earned their trips with good gate speed but their trips were non the less dressed up.

I am hopeful that in the Belmont, there will be race flow and we will have jockeys leaving their race on the track. If that happens, I just don't see a scenario where AP wins. Yes, in 1 of his OP wins, he did storm home with a fast last 5/16. However, that was a boat race with pedestrian fractions through 3/4 of a mile. He only reproduces that run if all jocks choke, he hits the lead, crawls for a mile and sprints home in the last half mile. Is that possible? yes, these jockeys are some of the worst jockeys in the history of horse racing.

I wish Jerry Bailey came out of retirement for 1 race. He would race ride AP to a guaranteed loss :lol:

AP is a good horse. Great? not yet. Prove it through adversity Saturday. If he walks around the track on a loose lead, I won't be impressed. He'll create history but it won't impress me. If he wins under any other scenario (not loose with a comfortable lead) he will earn my respect.

[pandy]

To evaluate these horses you really have to look at the Derby because the Preakness has become so watered down that they're handing the Preakness to the Derby winner on a silver platter. Firing Line slipped and lost his footing right at the start, was caught 7 wide and never got into the race, plus he hated the slop. So AP had to beat one horse, his entrymate, Dortmund, who was content to let AP take the lead. The rest of the field was weak. I know some will say that the field in the Belmont is weak but it is a much better field than the Preakness especially since Firing Line had no shot in the Preakness. We have to remember, if Firing Line handles the slop and doesn't start bad, Gary Stevens would have been leaving and pressing or at least prompting the pace. Once he couldn't leave, it made it easy for the favorite.

[BlueChip@DRF]

IMHO, there was no one to challenge him in the Preakness as there were only 2 pretenders in the race. PPs 2 and 8. 1 was taken out of the way to avoid bothering AP (PP2) and PP8 was drowning in the remnants of the massive rainstorm in his first stride.

In the derby, 10 horses plus lost all shot as they were accordioned in the first 1/16 of a mile. I do not ever remember a field of plus 15 ever running 123 or in this case 321. The top 3 in the derby had dressed up trips. They earned their trips with good gate speed but their trips were non the less dressed up.

I am hopeful that in the Belmont, there will be race flow and we will have jockeys leaving their race on the track. If that happens, I just don't see a scenario where AP wins. Yes, in 1 of his OP wins, he did storm home with a fast last 5/16. However, that was a boat race with pedestrian fractions through 3/4 of a mile. He only reproduces that run if all jocks choke, he hits the lead, crawls for a mile and sprints home in the last half mile. Is that possible? yes, these jockeys are some of the worst jockeys in the history of horse racing.

I wish Jerry Bailey came out of retirement for 1 race. He would race ride AP to a guaranteed loss :lol:

AP is a good horse. Great? not yet. Prove it through adversity Saturday. If he walks around the track on a loose lead, I won't be impressed. He'll create history but it won't impress me. If he wins under any other scenario (not loose with a comfortable lead) he will earn my respect.

I totally agree. If he has the Smarty Jones Belmont scenario AND wins, he will have earned my respect as well.

[pandy]

IMHO, there was no one to challenge him in the Preakness as there were only 2 pretenders in the race. PPs 2 and 8. 1 was taken out of the way to avoid bothering AP (PP2) and PP8 was drowning in the remnants of the massive rainstorm in his first stride.

In the derby, 10 horses plus lost all shot as they were accordioned in the first 1/16 of a mile. I do not ever remember a field of plus 15 ever running 123 or in this case 321. The top 3 in the derby had dressed up trips. They earned their trips with good gate speed but their trips were non the less dressed up.

I am hopeful that in the Belmont, there will be race flow and we will have jockeys leaving their race on the track. If that happens, I just don't see a scenario where AP wins. Yes, in 1 of his OP wins, he did storm home with a fast last 5/16. However, that was a boat race with pedestrian fractions through 3/4 of a mile. He only reproduces that run if all jocks choke, he hits the lead, crawls for a mile and sprints home in the last half mile. Is that possible? yes, these jockeys are some of the worst jockeys in the history of horse racing.

I wish Jerry Bailey came out of retirement for 1 race. He would race ride AP to a guaranteed loss :lol:

AP is a good horse. Great? not yet. Prove it through adversity Saturday. If he walks around the track on a loose lead, I won't be impressed. He'll create history but it won't impress me. If he wins under any other scenario (not loose with a comfortable lead) he will earn my respect.

Castelllano and Mike Smith were both impeded badly by Baffert's horse, Bayern, in the BC Classic. One of them could pull a Jerry Bailey here...

[Steve R]

I totally agree. If he has the Smarty Jones Belmont scenario AND wins, he will have earned my respect as well.
Even if it's with a sub-100 Beyer?

[pandy]

If American Pharoah wins the Triple Crown, one of sport's greatest accomplishments, I don't see how you can knock him. I won't. He's a very good horse and he may be a great horse, time will tell. But winning the Triple Crown is a much greater achievement than winning the first two legs and would put him in a different category than where he is right now. An elite category.

[ronsmac]

Even if it's with a sub-100 Beyer?Beyers have been shrinking more than George Costanza getting out of a pool the last 10 years. Beyers numbers are pretty much useless these days.

[Mystic]

If American Pharoah wins the Triple Crown, one of sport's greatest accomplishments, I don't see how you can knock him. I won't. He's a very good horse and he may be a great horse, time will tell. But winning the Triple Crown is a much greater achievement than winning the first two legs and would put him in a different category than where he is right now. An elite category.

As well as one of the easiest TC wins in history.

[BlueChip@DRF]

As well as one of the easiest TC wins in history.

You can blame that on the U.S. thoroughbred breeding industry.

[Relwob Owner]

If American Pharoah wins the Triple Crown, one of sport's greatest accomplishments, I don't see how you can knock him. I won't. He's a very good horse and he may be a great horse, time will tell. But winning the Triple Crown is a much greater achievement than winning the first two legs and would put him in a different category than where he is right now. An elite category.


I am with you...I don't care how he does it(and I dont think he will). He will have beaten two solid horses who skipped the Preakness specifically targeting this race and will have definitely earned it.

[DeltaLover]

I am with you...I don't care how he does it(and I dont think he will). He will have beaten two solid horses who skipped the Preakness specifically targeting this race and will have definitely earned it.

How many horses did Secretariat beat in his Belmont?

[Relwob Owner]

How many horses did Secretariat beat in his Belmont?


4 I believe. What is your point?

[DeltaLover]

4 I believe. What is your point?

My point is that I do not understand why people try to underestimate the magnitude of a possible win of AP in a field consisting from eight rivals.

[Steve R]

He was a fresh horse going into the derby and Neither the derby or the Preakness was especially tiring. He looks like he wants more distance. It all depends if he was injured in the Preakness or he gets injured in between races. I think he has about a 60% chance if he is healthy. It is tough to run 3 races in 5 weeks while on Lasix.
How does a horse that has never run a sub-25 second final quarter in any route race as a three-year old, all but one off a moderate to slow pace, look like he wants more distance?

[Relwob Owner]

My point is that I do not understand why people try to underestimate the magnitude of a possible win of AP in a field consisting from eight rivals.

You misunderstood my post. I wasn't doing that and was just saying if he wins, the Triple Crown will be more than well deserved.

I was responding to someone and agreeing that I would be impressed as well with the win and I definitely would be. I never brought up the field size. I brought up the fact that two horses(obviously Materiality and Frosted) would be coming in fresh to beat him and if he beats these two, along with the rest of the field, I will be very impressed and will consider him more than deserving of all the accolades that will come his way. "I dont care how he does it" was a response to someone who said if he does it on the lead, he won't be as impressed. He deserves all the accolades he gets no matter what style he uses if he wins it.

That being said, I don't think he will get it done.

[Steve R]

Beyers have been shrinking more than George Costanza getting out of a pool the last 10 years. Beyers numbers are pretty much useless these days.
It's not just Beyer figures. Virtually every figure maker I've seen has come to the same conclusion. There hasn't been a legitimate mile-and-a-half three-year-old in North America in a decade.

In 1990 the average Belmont BSF was around +/-110. By 2010 it was around +/-100. My own Performance Figures (PFs, where the more negative the number the better) indicate that around 2000 the average PF was about -65. Lately it's been around -50. The Racing Post ratings have gone from an average of about 126 in the mid-1990s to about 122 more recently. It's not a fluke nor does it reflect on the usefulness of speed ratings. It's what's happening to American racing.

[Steve R]

If American Pharoah wins the Triple Crown, one of sport's greatest accomplishments, I don't see how you can knock him. I won't. He's a very good horse and he may be a great horse, time will tell. But winning the Triple Crown is a much greater achievement than winning the first two legs and would put him in a different category than where he is right now. An elite category.
The Triple Crown is a name applied to three challenging races for three-year-olds run at three different distances over five weeks. It was the media creation of a DRF writer to describe Gallant Fox's sweep of the same races Sir Barton had won eleven years earlier. It's not magical and it's not mystical. In the end, like all races, the Triple Crown races have to be judged on their merits and in the context of history. If just one horse showed up for all three races you would still have a Triple Crown winner but of course it would be a meaningless designation. IOW, if you are going to apply a special significance to the Triple Crown, it has to be measured against the other horses that have won it. I had already noted that I believed this was the fastest group of three-year-olds up to 9f since the crop of Barbaro, Lawyer Ron and Brother Derek a decade ago. I also noted that I believed this was the slowest group of classic distance three-year-olds in at least two decades. That observation is, IMO, is a clear expression of just how far American breeding has gone awry. Surely there may be other great (in an historical sense) American classic winners in the future, but the trend is painfully clear. So unless American Pharoah can run a Belmont Stakes in world-class time generating world-class speed figures I could surely knock him as the worst example of a Triple Crown winner in my lifetime, and that goes back to Count Fleet who won the Derby just two weeks after I was born.

[RXB]

It's not just Beyer figures. Virtually every figure maker I've seen has come to the same conclusion. There hasn't been a legitimate mile-and-a-half three-year-old in North America in a decade.


Everyone except Jerry Brown. Thorograph's Belmont Stakes figures are noticeably faster in recent years. Over the past 14 runnings, the worst T-Graph winning number is a 2, and that was still a faster rating than any of the nine preceding renditions. I don't agree, but there's the dissenter.

[Skanoochies]

Using that criteria, Secretariat having won the Triple Crown with the fastest
times in all three races disparages any and all other Triple Crown winners.

[clocker7]

Using that criteria, Secretariat having won the Triple Crown with the fastest
times in all three races disparages any and all other Triple Crown winners.

People should stop making Secretariat time comparisons. He and the likes of Dr. Fager ran on surfaces that were barely dented by their hooves ... go look at the photos. Nowadays, runners are up to their fetlocks or more.

That being said, Secretariat would lay off the pace a bit, and then cruise past this bunch. The breed has been radically altered for speed.

[horses4courses]

.Churchill Downs PR ‏@DerbyMedia 23h23 hours ago
Trainer Bob Baffert tells us American Pharoah weighed 1,178 pounds before Arkansas Derby. Weighs 1,186 today. Amazing.

[BlueChip@DRF]

What a fatso. :cool:

[biggestal99]

Of course he can win, 60-40 against, i will be looking elsewhere for the winner.

Allan

[Steve R]

Everyone except Jerry Brown. Thorograph's Belmont Stakes figures are noticeably faster in recent years. Over the past 14 runnings, the worst T-Graph winning number is a 2, and that was still a faster rating than any of the nine preceding renditions. I don't agree, but there's the dissenter.
I believe he thinks the Thoroughbred today is generally faster than the Thoroughbred of 20 or 30 years ago. That may be true in sprints but certainly not at classic distances. I wonder how he would explain the fact that the North American speed records at 5 1/2, 6 and 6 1/2 furlongs have all been set since 2009 while there hasn't been a major record set beyond a mile in 27 years. Anyway, the algorithms they use for lost ground, wind and weight seem to be wrong from the perspective of physics, and the lack of precision in measuring those effects relative to the precision of measuring actual time introduces more noise into the time adjustments than is justified. It's like measuring something to one significant figure and claiming accuracy to three significant figures.

[DeltaLover]

I am with you...I don't care how he does it(and I dont think he will). He will have beaten two solid horses who skipped the Preakness specifically targeting this race and will have definitely earned it.

OK, we say exactly the same then.

[clocker7]

Regarding my post upthread about the state of "tighter" (to say the least) track grooming for Secretariat's era. Some photos showing the firmness:

http://isportsweb.com/wp-content/uploads//2015/03/00000012-403x320.jpg

http://www.belmontstakes.com/UserFiles/secretariat.jpg

The KD

http://cdn.bloodhorse.com/images/content/SecretariatKentuckyDerby1973BHL298.jpg

The 1972 Futurity at Belmont:

http://www.championsgallery.com/Secretariat%20The%20Futurity.jpg

[BlueChip@DRF]

Regarding my post upthread about the state of "tighter" (to say the least) track grooming for Secretariat's era. Some photos showing the firmness:

http://isportsweb.com/wp-content/uploads//2015/03/00000012-403x320.jpg

http://www.belmontstakes.com/UserFiles/secretariat.jpg

The KD

http://cdn.bloodhorse.com/images/content/SecretariatKentuckyDerby1973BHL298.jpg

The 1972 Futurity at Belmont:

http://www.championsgallery.com/Secretariat%20The%20Futurity.jpg


Wow. That's a lot of seats available for something so historical. Looks like nobody knew what was about to happen....

[RXB]

I believe he thinks the Thoroughbred today is generally faster than the Thoroughbred of 20 or 30 years ago. That may be true in sprints but certainly not at classic distances. I wonder how he would explain the fact that the North American speed records at 5 1/2, 6 and 6 1/2 furlongs have all been set since 2009 while there hasn't been a major record set beyond a mile in 27 years. Anyway, the algorithms they use for lost ground, wind and weight seem to be wrong from the perspective of physics, and the lack of precision in measuring those effects relative to the precision of measuring actual time introduces more noise into the time adjustments than is justified. It's like measuring something to one significant figure and claiming accuracy to three significant figures.

There was a discussion a few years ago regarding the changing comparisons of different distances.

http://paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?p=1063202&highlight=stamina#post1063202

The problem from a handicapper's standpoint, given that we have seen a definite shift toward speed and away from stamina, is that a single chart or set of numbers can provide reasonable comparisons with contemporary performances across different distances or with historical ones at the same distance -- but not both of those.

Over the past couple of decades the Belmont Stakes Beyer figure has usually been lower than the Derby and Preakness figures, but it doesn't necessarily mean that those performances were inferior by contemporary standards. I handicap real races involving today's horses, not theoretical events involving horses from various decades, so I'd prefer that the numbers in my PP's reflect the contemporary realities to give me an accurate comparison of the winning performances in the 2015 races, rather than one of the 2015 Belmont winner vs. the 1989 Belmont winner.

I agree wholeheartedly with your statements on ground loss. I especially can't imagine trying to use synthetic surface figures that are adjusted on the assumption that a rail trip is better than a two-path or three-path trip.

[TJDave]

Wow. That's a lot of seats available for something so historical. Looks like nobody knew what was about to happen....

The first and last photos were from 1972. Same race

[RoyalHeroine]

CC really looked dull to me in the Belmont post parade.
He had a shining coat and was full of himself in his previous races.
Not the same horse in New York.
Had he not hurt himself, who knows?
I felt at the time, though, that it wasn't going to be his day.

AP, hopefully, will be more himself.
But if he looks lack luster, I'll be searching for some value.

Yes, and Victor said as much in a TVG interview I think it was. Something to the tune of, "he was apathetic, which wasn't like him. I knew it would be a difficult task".

I truly believe history will show that he was a truly great horse for the time he raced.
And I believe he will have only that maiden loss on his resume.
Too bad we won't see him next year.

[RoyalHeroine]

Thank you all sincerely for your kind words. Life literally stopped since that date. It's nice to get distracted for a moment with life's pleasures (Belmont Stakes).

Appreciate all the kind words ....

You might investigate: http://biocarehospital.com/all.html
especially their approach to healthy diet. I know you're a long way away but that's what cellphones and computers are for!!

Good luck and glad to hear she's on the road to a more complete recovery. Maybe this will help.

Disclaimer: I have no affiliation with them.

[pandy]

The Triple Crown is a name applied to three challenging races for three-year-olds run at three different distances over five weeks. It was the media creation of a DRF writer to describe Gallant Fox's sweep of the same races Sir Barton had won eleven years earlier. It's not magical and it's not mystical. In the end, like all races, the Triple Crown races have to be judged on their merits and in the context of history. If just one horse showed up for all three races you would still have a Triple Crown winner but of course it would be a meaningless designation. IOW, if you are going to apply a special significance to the Triple Crown, it has to be measured against the other horses that have won it. I had already noted that I believed this was the fastest group of three-year-olds up to 9f since the crop of Barbaro, Lawyer Ron and Brother Derek a decade ago. I also noted that I believed this was the slowest group of classic distance three-year-olds in at least two decades. That observation is, IMO, is a clear expression of just how far American breeding has gone awry. Surely there may be other great (in an historical sense) American classic winners in the future, but the trend is painfully clear. So unless American Pharoah can run a Belmont Stakes in world-class time generating world-class speed figures I could surely knock him as the worst example of a Triple Crown winner in my lifetime, and that goes back to Count Fleet who won the Derby just two weeks after I was born.


It may be that the breed is slower but one thing that we have to take into consideration is that many of these 3yo's have less races under their belts than they did years ago, so it's not all that unusual that they haven't run faster, they have less foundation. Can you expect a horse to run it's absolute best from a speed figure stand point if it has 6 to 8 starts and had an easy two year old season? Years ago the horses were farther along in their progression because they had more starts. Of course, I could be wrong, it could just be that the horses are slower, but I do think it could be a factor.


I do use speed figures as part of the handicapping process, but I believe that winning races in GR1 races trumps speed figures. Winning is winning and winning the Triple Crown would put this horse in a different category.

[Relwob Owner]

OK, we say exactly the same then.


Yep :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[DeltaLover]

I do use speed figures as part of the handicapping process, but I believe that winning races in GR1 races trumps speed figures.

I think you are correct!

What really counts is the win while anything else, including margin of victory and achieved speed figures are of secondary importance.

My admiration for Kelso, at least equals Secretariat. Although the latter had some (way) faster races and speed figs to show, the former managed to defeat the best of five different crops, showing an unprecedented consistency and quality.

[pandy]

I think you are correct!

What really counts is the win while anything else, including margin of victory and achieved speed figures are of secondary importance.

My admiration for Kelso, at least equals Secretariat. Although the latter had some (way) faster races and speed figs to show, the former managed to defeat the best of five different crops, showing an unprecedented consistency and quality.


Very good point. Just because Secretariat ran a few incredibly fast races doesn't mean that he would have definitely beaten Kelso. It's fun to look at the speed figures and try to guess which horses were the best but no one knows which horses are the best until they race against each other.

[thaskalos]

Very good point. Just because Secretariat ran a few incredibly fast races doesn't mean that he would have definitely beaten Kelso. It's fun to look at the speed figures and try to guess which horses were the best but no one knows which horses are the best until they race against each other.
Is that all Secretariat did? Run a few incredibly fast races?

[pandy]

Is that all Secretariat did? Run a few incredibly fast races?

I thought he was the best I've seen, but, a lot of people feel the same way about Kelso, who was an amazing horse.

[thaskalos]

I thought he was the best I've seen, but, a lot of people feel the same way about Kelso, who was an amazing horse.

A lot of people think that Kelso was better than Secretariat? Where have all these people been hiding, and I haven't seen them in my 33 years at the track?

[pandy]

I've had many, many, racing fans tell me that kelso was the greatest they ever saw.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

A lot of people think that Kelso was better than Secretariat? Where have all these people been hiding, and I haven't seen them in my 33 years at the track?

My pops said he was the best he had ever seen:

Career highlights



Won eight of nine races (6 of them stakes) in 1960
Won eleven consecutive races (his last six of 1960 and first five of 1961)
Carried 130 pounds or more on 24 occasions, winning 13, placing in 5, and finishing third once
Won 62% of his starts (39 out of 63 starts)
Finished in the money in 84% of his starts (53 out of 63)
In 1961, Kelso joined Whisk Broom II (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whisk_Broom_II) and Tom Fool (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Fool) as the third horse in history to win the New York Handicap Triple (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_Handicap_Triple), made up of the Metropolitan Handicap (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metropolitan_Handicap) – in which he carried 130 pounds (59 kg), the Suburban Handicap (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suburban_Handicap) – in which he carried 133 pounds (60 kg) – and the Brooklyn Handicap (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brooklyn_Handicap), in which he carried 136 pounds (62 kg).[10] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelso_%28horse%29#cite_note-10)
Still holds the World Record time for two miles on dirt of 3:19.1 set in the 1964 Jockey Club Gold Cup
Set a new American record for 1½ miles on the turf of 2:23.4 in the 1964 Washington, D.C. International (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Washington,_D.C._International_Stakes), set just 11 days after his Jockey Club Gold Cup victory.
Won The Stymie (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Stymie) Handicap at age five in 1962, and at age eight in 1965
Won an unprecedented five Horse of the Year titles. No other horse in history has won more than three.
Set nine track records



Setting 9 track records is beyond incredible. He could run just about any distance and be right there, from 6F to 2 miles on dirt or turf. A truly unbelievable horse.

[thaskalos]

I've had many, many, racing fans tell me that kelso was the greatest they ever saw.

The mighty Kelso...paraded alongside the great Forego, at the Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont on October 15, 1983. Kelso died the next day...at the age of 26.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jJZA19ZFqCQ

[jettroofer]

AP is a good horse. Great? not yet. Prove it through adversity Saturday. If he walks around the track on a loose lead, I won't be impressed. He'll create history but it won't impress me. If he wins under any other scenario (not loose with a comfortable lead) he will earn my respect.

Lol. You are hard to please! If AP wins the TC he has to do it in dramatic fashion in order to impress you?!?

[pandy]

My pops said he was the best he had ever seen:

Career highlights



Won eight of nine races (6 of them stakes) in 1960
Won eleven consecutive races (his last six of 1960 and first five of 1961)
Carried 130 pounds or more on 24 occasions, winning 13, placing in 5, and finishing third once
Won 62% of his starts (39 out of 63 starts)
Finished in the money in 84% of his starts (53 out of 63)
In 1961, Kelso joined Whisk Broom II (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whisk_Broom_II) and Tom Fool (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tom_Fool) as the third horse in history to win the New York Handicap Triple (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_Handicap_Triple), made up of the Metropolitan Handicap (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metropolitan_Handicap) – in which he carried 130 pounds (59 kg), the Suburban Handicap (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suburban_Handicap) – in which he carried 133 pounds (60 kg) – and the Brooklyn Handicap (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brooklyn_Handicap), in which he carried 136 pounds (62 kg).[10] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelso_%28horse%29#cite_note-10)
Still holds the World Record time for two miles on dirt of 3:19.1 set in the 1964 Jockey Club Gold Cup
Set a new American record for 1½ miles on the turf of 2:23.4 in the 1964 Washington, D.C. International (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Washington,_D.C._International_Stakes), set just 11 days after his Jockey Club Gold Cup victory.
Won The Stymie (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Stymie) Handicap at age five in 1962, and at age eight in 1965
Won an unprecedented five Horse of the Year titles. No other horse in history has won more than three.
Set nine track records



Setting 9 track records is beyond incredible. He could run just about any distance and be right there, from 6F to 2 miles on dirt or turf. A truly unbelievable horse.

Incredible horse. I never saw him, but his record speaks for itself. Bloodhorse has him ranked number 4 behind Man O War, Secretariat and Citation. The weights he carried, freakin' amazing.

[pandy]

The mighty Kelso...paraded alongside the great Forego, at the Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont on October 15, 1983. Kelso died the next day...at the age of 26.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jJZA19ZFqCQ


I never saw this! Kelso looks great for his age, hard to believe he died the next day, wow. What a race they two of them would have put on! Luckily I saw Forego, one of my all time favorites.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Lol. You are hard to please! If AP wins the TC he has to do it in dramatic fashion in order to impress you?!?

I'm on board with EMD4ME. It's not that it has to be dramatic, but they just don't hand to him by making it easy, either.

[EMD4ME]

I'm on board with EMD4ME. It's not that it has to be dramatic, but they just don't hand to him by making it easy, either.


Thanks for clarifying for me. I don't mean dramatic like lose a shoe, get hit by lightning, have Ramon Dominguez's horse hit you at the quarter pole, drop to your knees and re-rally for a monster score.

All I am saying is, if he wins, which he won't, I would only be impressed if he wins without a cakewalk trip.

You wan't an example? Look no further than Tonalist's game win last year. 4 wide the whole way, looked beat at the quarter pole, showed guts, heart, class and determination to re-separate himself from 5 contenders who had him at the 1/8 pole last year.

If he gets the lead and no one pressures him at any point, I will vomit on my screen and ( I know you don't care) but I will not be impressed.

I cant wait till someone looks him in the eye and puts him away. I truly believe he is over rated, just like California Chrome was over rated.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Thanks for clarifying for me. I don't mean dramatic like lose a shoe, get hit by lightning, have Ramon Dominguez's horse hit you at the quarter pole, drop to your knees and re-rally for a monster score.

All I am saying is, if he wins, which he won't, I would only be impressed if he wins without a cakewalk trip.

You wan't an example? Look no further than Tonalist's game win last year. 4 wide the whole way, looked beat at the quarter pole, showed guts, heart, class and determination to re-separate himself from 5 contenders who had him at the 1/8 pole last year.

If he gets the lead and no one pressures him at any point, I will vomit on my screen and ( I know you don't care) but I will not be impressed.

I cant wait till someone looks him in the eye and puts him away. I truly believe he is over rated, just like California Chrome was over rated.


You should post a pic if that happens. :p

[lamboguy]

i would be very surprised if any horse in this field can pressure AMERICAN PHAROAH.

i truly expect him to run much better than he did in the Preakness. that is what great horses do.

before the Kentucky Derby i hated the horse, now i am a believer. if he loses this race, which he won't, it will be because Bob Baffert made some kind of a mistake prepping him for the race which i really don't see. i would be in complete shock if he doesn't win this race by over 8 lengths.

i would also be in shock if people on this board don't start comparing him to the very best and elite horses of the past.

[EMD4ME]

You should post a pic if that happens. :p


:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

I should just take an old pic! It's happened already in many races where Irad, Jose, Angel and Cornelio choke out their mounts like they are Andre The Giant VS. Hulk Hogan and the loose leader wires :bang: :bang: :bang:

[BlueChip@DRF]

i would be very surprised if any horse in this field can pressure AMERICAN PHAROAH.

i truly expect him to run much better than he did in the Preakness. that is what great horses do.

before the Kentucky Derby i hated the horse, now i am a believer. if he loses this race, which he won't, it will be because Bob Baffert made some kind of a mistake prepping him for the race which i really don't see. i would be in complete shock if he doesn't win this race by over 8 lengths.

i would also be in shock if people on this board don't start comparing him to the very best and elite horses of the past.


The breed has changed so much in the past 40 years that it is nearly impossible to compare them. I don't think the breed now could withstand running 3 races in a month like they used to.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

The breed has changed so much in the past 40 years that it is nearly impossible to compare them. I don't think the breed now could withstand running 3 races in a month like they used to.

$2,500 claimers do it all the time, so you can't tell me that the best of the breed can't do it.

The reality is that the breeding shed money is worth so much more money than actually racing for our best and breedable horses. In the end, they want them able to win the a triple crown race, and then be able to breed.

And if they roll the dice right, they may well get that 40 year drought-breaker and cash in like nobody has ever seen before.

[DeltaLover]

Thanks for clarifying for me. I don't mean dramatic like lose a shoe, get hit by lightning, have Ramon Dominguez's horse hit you at the quarter pole, drop to your knees and re-rally for a monster score.

All I am saying is, if he wins, which he won't, I would only be impressed if he wins without a cakewalk trip.

You wan't an example? Look no further than Tonalist's game win last year. 4 wide the whole way, looked beat at the quarter pole, showed guts, heart, class and determination to re-separate himself from 5 contenders who had him at the 1/8 pole last year.

If he gets the lead and no one pressures him at any point, I will vomit on my screen and ( I know you don't care) but I will not be impressed.

I cant wait till someone looks him in the eye and puts him away. I truly believe he is over rated, just like California Chrome was over rated.

I am happy to see you posting again after all that happened during the last two months...

You are a model son, nephew and family man and I admire your courage and dedication to our values.

God bless you!

Now, getting to horses:

I am sure you know it, that I consider you an exceptional handicapper and horse player and I have the ultimate respect for your abilities.

Besides that, I also think that some times you form a dogmatic opinion that later you stubbornly refuse to rethink and possibly change...

I have been in this spot in the past and it took me a long time, to realize that there are some times that my original thoughts need to be altered, given the facts and the real world results.

As far as AP, the facts are clearly suggesting that he will only loose, if something really exceptional happen to him... Otherwise, I am convinced (and you know better than anyone in this forum, that I would be the last one to back such an obvious favourite) that he will easily capture the Belmont and the TC.

More than this, I also believe that there is a very good chance that AP will continue to mature, evolving to do something that no other horse in the history has ever done...

After the TC triumph, a Travers - Gold Cup - Breeders Cup Classic parlay, is a real possibility for this horse and I would not be surprised if he accomplishes it...

[thaskalos]

I am happy to see you posting again after all that happened during the last two months...

You are a model son, nephew and family man and I admire your courage and dedication to our values.

God bless you!

Now, getting to horses:

I am sure you know it, that I consider you an exceptional handicapper and horse player and I have the ultimate respect for your abilities.

Besides that, I also think that some times you form a dogmatic opinion that later you stubbornly refuse to rethink and possibly change...

I have been in this spot in the past and it took me a long time, to realize that there are some times that my original thoughts need to be altered, given the facts and the real world results.

As far as AP, the facts are clearly suggesting that he will only loose, if something really exceptional happen to him... Otherwise, I am convinced (and you know better than anyone in this forum, that I would be the last one to back such an obvious favourite) that he will easily capture the Belmont and the TC.

More than this, I also believe that there is a very good chance that AP will continue to mature, evolving to do something that no other horse in the history has ever done...

After the TC triumph, a Travers - Gold Cup - Breeders Cup Classic parlay, is a real possibility for this horse and I would not be surprised if he accomplishes it...

How many times have I told you...alcohol and gambling don't mix.

[DeltaLover]

How many times have I told you...alcohol and gambling don't mix.

Some times they do :confused: :confused:

[RoyalHeroine]

The mighty Kelso...paraded alongside the great Forego, at the Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont on October 15, 1983. Kelso died the next day...at the age of 26.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jJZA19ZFqCQ

Though I can certainly see why they did it, I believe that the stress and excitement for the old war horse is what did him in the next day causing his death.
Just look at him on the muscle, prancing, thinking "WTH am I going to race again?!?"
Kinda sad to me. I mean, he was 26 already when the put on that show. I was at Del Mar then and, though I appreciated the gesture, I was a bit dumbfounded.
But I get it.

[nijinski]

Thanks for clarifying for me. I don't mean dramatic like lose a shoe, get hit by lightning, have Ramon Dominguez's horse hit you at the quarter pole, drop to your knees and re-rally for a monster score.

All I am saying is, if he wins, which he won't, I would only be impressed if he wins without a cakewalk trip.

You wan't an example? Look no further than Tonalist's game win last year. 4 wide the whole way, looked beat at the quarter pole, showed guts, heart, class and determination to re-separate himself from 5 contenders who had him at the 1/8 pole last year.

If he gets the lead and no one pressures him at any point, I will vomit on my screen and ( I know you don't care) but I will not be impressed.

I cant wait till someone looks him in the eye and puts him away. I truly believe he is over rated, just like California Chrome was over rated.

First , my best wishes for you Mom and her recovery !

Now for the Belmont

Obviously looking at the history of the TC , it's not an easy thing to
accomplish or we'd have seen way more winners since it goes back
far into racing history . So you're saying he will lose , of course the
odds are with you . We've seen the Da Taras and Saravas . No surprise,
it's tough to go through this campaign and finish up at yet another track
at the longest distance .
If the breeding doesn't change , soon this distance will become hybrid
especially for a three year old .

There is always hype when any horse wins the first two legs , why not ?

You don't like AP and it's clear you're not on the bandwagon . Who is the better three year old this year ?

I was cautious earlier , as pedigree suggested he would love a mile
at the most but he obviously has the windpipes thus far of his sire's
lineage . I hope it takes him a little longer on Saturday ! Hoping for a TC ! :)

[TwirlingCandy]

Thanks for clarifying for me. I don't mean dramatic like lose a shoe, get hit by lightning, have Ramon Dominguez's horse hit you at the quarter pole, drop to your knees and re-rally for a monster score.

All I am saying is, if he wins, which he won't, I would only be impressed if he wins without a cakewalk trip.

You wan't an example? Look no further than Tonalist's game win last year. 4 wide the whole way, looked beat at the quarter pole, showed guts, heart, class and determination to re-separate himself from 5 contenders who had him at the 1/8 pole last year.

If he gets the lead and no one pressures him at any point, I will vomit on my screen and ( I know you don't care) but I will not be impressed.

I cant wait till someone looks him in the eye and puts him away. I truly believe he is over rated, just like California Chrome was over rated. overrated? lmao 6-7 6 in a row all stakes. derby and preakness winner :lol: get your barf bag ready. Rooting againts American Pharoah is rooting againts horse racing :bang:

[TwirlingCandy]

I'm on board with EMD4ME. It's not that it has to be dramatic, but they just don't hand to him by making it easy, either.
they didn't make it easy in the derby or the preakness. If you have hate in your heart let it out

[Rex Phinney]

they didn't make it easy in the derby or the preakness. If you have hate in your heart let it out

The derby this year was dreadful. 15 long shots sat back and handed the race to the 3 favorites.

The favorites all liked being near the front and they got it thru easy fractions and no one did anything behind them. A pretty lame horse race in my book.

The Preakness was a mess, not much entered to start with and the 2 with a real chance to beat AP clearly didn't like the conditions. I'll delete that race from my memory for all horses involved. The conditions and lack of depth in the field make it hard to trust the results.

[TwirlingCandy]

On to the thread at hand. 1 year ago at this time, I definitively stated on this site that Tonalist was a lock in the Belmont and that California Chrome was a hopeless longshot.

I even stated specifically why. Dead rail win in the Peter Pan, CC had dressed up wins in the derby and preakness.

My vote this year is not as definitive as I don't have the winner picked out as there is no Tonalist in the field right now.


I see you are so proud of your belmont pick tonalist and so down on cc :ThmbUp: cc won the derby and the preakness while tonalist skipped them and came in primed for the belmont. CC lost the classic by a neck. where was tonalist? CC ran 2nd in the world cup. Tonalist hasnt done shit but win the belmont

[TwirlingCandy]

The derby this year was dreadful. 15 long shots sat back and handed the race to the 3 favorites.

The favorites all liked being near the front and they got it thru easy fractions and no one did anything behind them. A pretty lame horse race in my book.

The Preakness was a mess, not much entered to start with and the 2 with a real chance to beat AP clearly didn't like the conditions. I'll delete that race from my memory for all horses involved. The conditions and lack of depth in the field make it hard to trust the results. the haters make me laugh. The derby was dreadful? :lol: undefeated dormund. firing line had just won by how many lenghts? Last years derby was much worst. You can only beat what's put infront of you. You guys make me laugh

[Rex Phinney]

the haters make me laugh. The derby was dreadful? :lol: undefeated dormund. firing line had just won by how many lenghts? Last years derby was much worst. You can only beat what's put infront of you. You guys make me laugh

Hey you got it all figured out then. Jump on the 3/5 favorite going 12 furlongs for all the glory.

It works every time right?

[thaskalos]

Hey you got it all figured out then. Jump on the 3/5 favorite going 12 furlongs for all the glory.

It works every time right?
What could possibly go wrong? :)

[TwirlingCandy]

Hey you got it all figured out then. Jump on the 3/5 favorite going 12 furlongs for all the glory.

It works every time right? that's not the point. This isn't the last race in the world to make $ off. The point is this is a great horse. Whether he's fresh enough to win the belmont will see, but if he does win it i hope it burns ;)

[thaskalos]

that's not the point. This isn't the last race in the world to make $ off. The point is this is a great horse. Whether he's fresh enough to win the belmont will see, but if he does win it i hope it burns ;)
Will it "burn" you if he loses?

[TwirlingCandy]

a lot of horse players remind me of basketball fans. Always complaining about how soft the game is now, but are still there watching everygame and doing nothing but complaining :bang:

[TwirlingCandy]

Will it "burn" you if he loses? all the way to my ahole :eek:

[Rex Phinney]

a lot of horse players remind me of basketball fans. Always complaining about how soft the game is now, but are still there watching everygame and doing nothing but complaining :bang:

Who is complaining? I simply pointed out that none of the 15 also rans in the Derby did anything to cause urgency among the 3 favorites early on.

I'll bet against AP but I won't be whining in a fetal position if he wins. Good for him.

[TwirlingCandy]

Who is complaining? I simply pointed out that none of the 15 also rans in the Derby did anything to cause urgency among the 3 favorites early on.

I'll bet against AP but I won't be whining in a fetal position if he wins. Good for him. that's fine. try and make some $. my problem is they way you try to make it sound like he didnt do anything because the longshots didn't do anything? what kind of logic is that? I'm more impressed that he had to pass two high quality colts in the stretch and the only horse closing late (frosted) wasn't gaining on AP. good luck with your bets and i'll probably hedge myself just incase he does lose for that huge payout

[thaskalos]

that's fine. try and make some $. my problem is they way you try to make it sound like he didnt do anything because the longshots didn't do anything? what kind of logic is that? I'm more impressed that he had to pass two high quality colts in the stretch and the only horse closing late (frosted) wasn't gaining on AP. good luck with your bets and i'll probably hedge myself just incase he does lose for that huge payout

Hey...wait a minute. A little while ago you said that "rooting against AP is rooting against horse racing"...and then you pointed out to us what a great horse he is. And now you are talking about HEDGING, in case he LOSES?

[TwirlingCandy]

Hey...wait a minute. A little while ago you said that "rooting against AP is rooting against horse racing"...and then you pointed out to us what a great horse he is. And now you are talking about HEDGING, in case he LOSES?of course my pain will be eased with a nice ticket :ThmbUp: I don't care if people bet againts him. I just hate when people try and bring him down when he has done everything asked of him

[Steve R]

of course my pain will be eased with a nice ticket :ThmbUp: I don't care if people bet againts him. I just hate when people try and bring him down when he has done everything asked of him
I remember when Peppers Pride was getting close to the end of her record-breaking undefeated career. She had fans everywhere and generated much excitement every time she put her streak on the line. At the same time, those same fans recognized that despite her unblemished record she was a regional, mid-level performer dominating her contemporaries. No one mistook her for Rachel Alexandra or Zenyatta. Acknowledging that fact was not a putdown but rather a realistic assessment of her abilities. Today, many fans appreciate American Pharoah's quest for the Triple Crown. That doesn't mean those same fans can't put that quest in context. I've seen three Triple Crowns that I can remember vividly. I have no problem saying that, short of a miraculous effort in the Belmont Stakes, American Pharoah will be the weakest by far of those three. In fact, even if he wins in the pedestrian manner he has won the first two legs I would say he isn't nearly as good as several Derby/Preakness winners who failed in the Belmont including Big Brown, Smarty Jones, Silver Charm, Sunday Silence, Alysheba, Spectacular Bid, Majestic Prince and Northern Dancer. Perhaps there are others. "Triple Crown" is a media-created marketing label. You still have to evaluate the performances on their own merits. If that's bringing American Pharoah down, then so be it.

[RoyalHeroine]

I see you are so proud of your belmont pick tonalist and so down on cc :ThmbUp: cc won the derby and the preakness while tonalist skipped them and came in primed for the belmont. CC lost the classic by a neck. where was tonalist? CC ran 2nd in the world cup. Tonalist hasnt done shit but win the belmont

Now now TC, let's be careful to not let the facts get in the way.....:rolleyes:

I too don't get the haters.

B4 the first leg it wuz: "Man this is the deepest crop of 3 year olds since "...".

Then bc of the time of the Derby race or what not the excuse mongers began their litany.

For cryin' out loud they can only race against who shows up on the date and time in question, and under the same date and time conditions of the racetrack, not some mythical scenario that these guys pull outta a hat.

Now it's gotta be "...worth competition with somebody looking him in the eye and fractions worthy of a GE 9115B on takeoff at full thrust or it ain't dipskiddle."

Guess what? Those folks don't get to set the stage, though I'm sure they'd like to resurrect Man O'War in another horses' flesh and enter him as a ringer in the race.

Now I hope he wins even more b/c if not we all have to suffer from the gloating "I told you so" crowd on this and other forums.

These people come from the same personality type you meet at the track - and get to eventually know better over time - who secretly root against you in the final leg of the pick for our five when you've got a live ticket.

I'll repeat myself: I just don't get it.

[EMD4ME]

I am happy to see you posting again after all that happened during the last two months...

You are a model son, nephew and family man and I admire your courage and dedication to our values.

God bless you!

Now, getting to horses:

I am sure you know it, that I consider you an exceptional handicapper and horse player and I have the ultimate respect for your abilities.

Besides that, I also think that some times you form a dogmatic opinion that later you stubbornly refuse to rethink and possibly change...

I have been in this spot in the past and it took me a long time, to realize that there are some times that my original thoughts need to be altered, given the facts and the real world results.

As far as AP, the facts are clearly suggesting that he will only loose, if something really exceptional happen to him... Otherwise, I am convinced (and you know better than anyone in this forum, that I would be the last one to back such an obvious favourite) that he will easily capture the Belmont and the TC.

More than this, I also believe that there is a very good chance that AP will continue to mature, evolving to do something that no other horse in the history has ever done...

After the TC triumph, a Travers - Gold Cup - Breeders Cup Classic parlay, is a real possibility for this horse and I would not be surprised if he accomplishes it...

Thank you Delta for taking time to visit us in the hospital. It put a smile on her face to see her track companions come see her.

I appreciate the kind words. The track is meaningless without health and family.

I know I can be 'passionate' about an opinion but I truly do look at every race with an open mind. You know me, if i hate the chalk, I bet heavy against him/her. If I like the chalk, I look to leverage the chalk in pick whatevers and exotics.

i didn't follow the derby and the preakness due to my family issues but since i brought her home, i've been catching up a little bit. I watched the replays, reviewed charts etc with an open mind and just like last year with California Chrome, i see an extremely vulnerable chalk looming Saturday. He would be vulnerable if the race was at 1 1/16 never mind 1 1/2 miles, in IMHO.

That's why I love this parimutual game. we can all agree to disagree.

I won't be at belmont this year for the first time since 1988, please scream your head off for ME in my absence:)

tell everyone i say hello and thank you delta. ttys

[EMD4ME]

Not rooting against anyone. I'm handicapping with a neutral heart and simply using logic to determine an opinion, hence all my facts attached to my opinion. If i simply just said "He will lose and have no reason behind it" then i can see someone saying I'm rooting against him.

time will tell, sadly it will probably take 2:30 plus to tell LOL

[EMD4ME]

I see you are so proud of your belmont pick tonalist and so down on cc :ThmbUp: cc won the derby and the preakness while tonalist skipped them and came in primed for the belmont. CC lost the classic by a neck. where was tonalist? CC ran 2nd in the world cup. Tonalist hasnt done shit but win the belmont

I never said Tonalist was the best horse in America. We were discussing the 2014 Belmont Stakes, hence my opinion.

It's funny, I couldn't find the posters who were on here RIDICULING me and others who picked Tonalist on June 8th or thereafter......They all disappeared after that glorious Saturday :lol: :lol: :lol:

But since you mention it, I'd take Tonalist in a match race VS CC any day of the week at any track in the country.

Yes, i am proud of my selection but that's not the point. Point is there is credence to what i'm saying. I also picked Da tara against BB, not here on PA as I wasn't aware PA existed back in 2008 but many NYRA fellow horseplayers remember me touting Da Tara to the world.

Believe what you want, please bet more into Saturday's pools :) We need people who blindly follow kool aid over hyped horses around to fatten up the pools for the Da taras, Birdstones and Tonalists :)

Any seasoned good trip handicapper knows this horse is vulnerable.

If he wins, I will be on here taking my abuse. Where will you be when he loses? Looking at the number of your posts, you will probably be hiding till the next pretender comes along in 2016.

[pandy]

Now now TC, let's be careful to not let the facts get in the way.....:rolleyes:

I too don't get the haters.

B4 the first leg it wuz: "Man this is the deepest crop of 3 year olds since "...".

Then bc of the time of the Derby race or what not the excuse mongers began their litany.

For cryin' out loud they can only race against who shows up on the date and time in question, and under the same date and time conditions of the racetrack, not some mythical scenario that these guys pull outta a hat.

Now it's gotta be "...worth competition with somebody looking him in the eye and fractions worthy of a GE 9115B on takeoff at full thrust or it ain't dipskiddle."

Guess what? Those folks don't get to set the stage, though I'm sure they'd like to resurrect Man O'War in another horses' flesh and enter him as a ringer in the race.

Now I hope he wins even more b/c if not we all have to suffer from the gloating "I told you so" crowd on this and other forums.

These people come from the same personality type you meet at the track - and get to eventually know better over time - who secretly root against you in the final leg of the pick for our five when you've got a live ticket.

I'll repeat myself: I just don't get it.


In order to win at this game, you have to find ways to beat over bet favorites who seem vulnerable, even if the vulnerability is only in your eyes.

I took a stand against Chrome with Tonalist last year and I'm taking a stand against AP, but I haven't made my pick yet.

For several reasons which I've stated I don't think this horse is going to be a Triple Crown winner.

However, if he wins the Triple Crown, I'm not going to come on here and say I was right even though I was wrong. Can't have it both ways. If he wins, then I'll admit I was wrong and he's better than I thought he was.

I'm not rooting against him, just trying to cash a bet. Last year's Belmont was my biggest hit of the year. But if American Pharoah wins, then he'll be a champion in my eyes...he'll deservedly win Horse of the Year honors. Right now I think he's a very good racehorse but probably not a great horse. If he wins Saturday, my opinion changes immediately and I'll admit that I underestimated him.

[EMD4ME]

In order to win at this game, you have to find ways to beat over bet favorites who seem vulnerable, even if the vulnerability is only in your eyes.

I took a stand against Chrome with Tonalist last year and I'm taking a stand against AP, but I haven't made my pick yet.

For several reasons which I've stated I don't think this horse is going to be a Triple Crown winner.

However, if he wins the Triple Crown, I'm not going to come on here and say I was right even though I was wrong. Can't have it both ways. If he wins, then I'll admit I was wrong and he's better than I thought he was.

I'm not rooting against him, just trying to cash a bet. Last year's Belmont was my biggest hit of the year. But if American Pharoah wins, then he'll be a champion in my eyes...he'll deservedly win Horse of the Year honors. Right now I think he's a very good racehorse but probably not a great horse. If he wins Saturday, my opinion changes immediately and I'll admit that I underestimated him.

In response RH:

I have nothing else to add but 1 thing:

I am always the guy internally rooting for all fellow horseplayers to hit the last leg of their ticket. As a religious soul and a big believer in Karma, I always want others to do well. So, I don't appreciate that comment.

If AP earns his way to the TC, I will be the first to say congratulations AP, you proved me wrong. But again, my stance is he will lose.

[PaceAdvantage]

I put AP's fair odds at 9-5 on my early line. The first time during the TC that I have made him the favorite on my line.

With that said, he has the weakest closing late number on the TimeForm figures...not a good thing going into the longest race of his career.

Conversely, he absolutely DOMINATES in the early numbers. There isn't a horse that can sniff his tail early in the race.

So, this will be a true test of the champion in my opinion. If AP wins this race, no matter the conditions, no matter the early pace scenario...even if he has it all his own way early (which he should), if he is able to gut it out down the stretch, he is as deserving as any other TC winner in my opinion.

This will be a very interesting race to watch. Could be a replay of 1998.

[PaceAdvantage]

I edited my last reply because I forgot Carpe Diem is out.

[TwirlingCandy]

emd your point is that he is overrated. By who? and how can he be overrated when he is easily the best 3 yo in the country by many lengths. Imo CC had more hype last year. AP is NOT overrated

[TwirlingCandy]

by the way I also had tonalist in the belmont and I would take CC in that match race you were talking about. CC wins by 3 lenghts lol

[TwirlingCandy]

American Pharoah will be the weakest by far of those three. In fact, even if he wins in the pedestrian manner he has won the first two legs I would say he isn't nearly as good as several Derby/Preakness winners who failed in the Belmont including Big Brown, Smarty Jones, Silver Charm, Sunday Silence, Alysheba, Spectacular Bid, Majestic Prince and Northern Dancer. Perhaps there are others. "Triple Crown" is a media-created marketing label. You still have to evaluate the performances on their own merits. If that's bringing American Pharoah down, then so be it. the 3 yos big brown faced were probably worse than the ones Chrome beat last year. AP>CC, Orb, i'll have another, animal kingdom, super saver and mine that bird

[PaceAdvantage]

After watching the Belmont Stakes for 27 straight years in person, and watching all the ways a horse can lose the Triple Crown, I am of the firm belief that ANY HORSE that is able to win all three is a DESERVING WINNER and a very special horse.

That will certainly be the case this year, should AP win on Saturday.

[TwirlingCandy]

After watching the Belmont Stakes for 27 straight years in person, and watching all the ways a horse can lose the Triple Crown, I am of the firm belief that ANY HORSE that is able to win all three is a DESERVING WINNER and a very special horse.

That will certainly be the case this year, should AP win on Saturday. amen brother

[TwirlingCandy]

Believe what you want, please bet more into Saturday's pools :) We need people who blindly follow kool aid over hyped horses around to fatten up the pools for the Da taras, Birdstones and Tonalists :)

well maybe if he finally loses you can get back the $ you lost betting againts him in the arkansas derby, kentucky derby and preakness :p:ThmbUp:and thank you for putting money on bums like da tara and birdstone boosting the good horses odds

[thaskalos]

My most perplexing Belmont question is whether I should include American Pharoah in my trifecta wagers at all.

[TwirlingCandy]

My most perplexing Belmont question is whether I should include American Pharoah in my trifecta wagers at all. not if you want a huge payoff. There's only 8 horses

[Steve R]

the 3 yos big brown faced were probably worse than the ones Chrome beat last year. AP>CC, Orb, i'll have another, animal kingdom, super saver and mine that bird
I wasn't addressing the quality of the competition. I was talking about the quality of the individuals. IMO, based on speed figures alone, Big Brown was much superior to American Pharoah. Even the Sheets guys think his Derby was the fastest ever. As for competition, I would argue this is the slowest group of three-year-olds at classic distances in at least two decades and probably much longer. If American Pharoah wins the Derby and the Preakness in very slow times (both raw and in terms of speed figures), by definition the competition is even slower.

Since 1990, American Pharoah's Derby Beyer figure is better than only six Derby winners and is the same as the much maligned Sea Hero. In the Preakness, his Beyer figure surpasses those of only three other Preakness winners since 1991. We see similar evaluations by BRIS and my own figures which I have been generating for 30 years and publishing for 15. Basically, in historical terms he's been slow when compared to other classic winners. So again, if he wins the Belmont in similar fashion I won't be impressed.

I guess we all have different values when it comes to racing. I've never been concerned with the names of races or their class level designations. For me it's all about physiology and the quality of performance. Hopefully, breeders haven't spent several centuries trying to improve the breed only to find that their classic horses are getting slower rather than faster.

[castaway01]

I wasn't addressing the quality of the competition. I was talking about the quality of the individuals. IMO, based on speed figures alone, Big Brown was much superior to American Pharoah. Even the Sheets guys think his Derby was the fastest ever. As for competition, I would argue this is the slowest group of three-year-olds at classic distances in at least two decades and probably much longer. If American Pharoah wins the Derby and the Preakness in very slow times (both raw and in terms of speed figures), by definition the competition is even slower.

Since 1990, American Pharoah's Derby Beyer figure is better than only six Derby winners and is the same as the much maligned Sea Hero. In the Preakness, his Beyer figure surpasses those of only three other Preakness winners since 1991. We see similar evaluations by BRIS and my own figures which I have been generating for 30 years and publishing for 15. Basically, in historical terms he's been slow when compared to other classic winners. So again, if he wins the Belmont in similar fashion I won't be impressed.

I guess we all have different values when it comes to racing. I've never been concerned with the names of races or their class level designations. For me it's all about physiology and the quality of performance. Hopefully, breeders haven't spent several centuries trying to improve the breed only to find that their classic horses are getting slower rather than faster.

Steve, they've spent 40 years breeding for speed rather than stamina. That's why in general horses are slower at 1 1/4 and 1 1/2 than they used to be---that distance past the mile is the killer. But when you're racing a bunch of other horses bred for speed, you only need to beat those horses, not the clock.

[TwirlingCandy]

materiality and upstart had to 2 highest beyers going into the derby. So i guess you took one of them? Figures dont tell the whole story imo

[TwirlingCandy]

andy beyer is the king of speed figures and he hasnt picked a kd winner in how many years? He picked upstart this year. Finished last lmao

[PaceAdvantage]

andy beyer is the king of speed figures and he hasnt picked a kd winner in how many years? He picked upstart this year. Finished last lmaoYeah, Beyer sucks and speed figures are useless.

Whatever man...

[TwirlingCandy]

Yeah, Beyer sucks and speed figures are useless.

Whatever man...lol :lol: :jump:

[PaceAdvantage]

lol :lol: :jump:Brilliant

[ronsmac]

Yeah, Beyer sucks and speed figures are useless.

Whatever man...Beyer is a legend,. His route numbers , especially the last decade are very questioable.

[PaceAdvantage]

Beyer is a legend,. His route numbers , especially the last decade are very questioable.In my opinion, people who summarily dismiss speed and pace figures are either clueless or trying to sell me something else.

[TwirlingCandy]

Brilliant u know what shove your site up your ****ing ass. I joined this site to talk horse racing, but all you fags want to do is be negative. A horse crushes the competition. "Oh no he sucks" he is overrated because the times are slow blah blah blah if there's one person in this world that knows horse racing. It is bob baffert and he says this might be the best horse he has ever trained, but you ****ing nerds who lose at the track im sure of it know more than Bob Baffert. Good luck trying to beat the races with your calculators. It takes skills to beat the races and you ****s cant buy that no matter how many different figures you get your hands on. Keep crunching those numbers ****ing losers :ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

[Steve R]

Steve, they've spent 40 years breeding for speed rather than stamina. That's why in general horses are slower at 1 1/4 and 1 1/2 than they used to be---that distance past the mile is the killer. But when you're racing a bunch of other horses bred for speed, you only need to beat those horses, not the clock.
I don't disagree at all. I'm acutely aware of the direction breeding has gone. But all that confirms is that the Triple Crown, as arduous a task as it is, doesn't have the same significance it had when horses actually were bred for classic distances. If 20 pure sprinters ran in the Derby and the winner won by 15 lengths in 2:06 with a Beyer figure of 80 there would still be people claiming how great he was and hoping for a Triple Crown. I wouldn't be one of them.

[TwirlingCandy]

materiality got a 110 i think and upstart 109. That means that both those horses are that ****ing fast?? no ****ing way. Last year CC got a 90 something in the sa derby and then it jumped to over 100 in the derby? he did not improve that much from the sa derby to the k derby

[Steve R]

materiality and upstart had to 2 highest beyers going into the derby. So i guess you took one of them? Figures dont tell the whole story imo
No, in my Derby preview I highlighted four major contenders - American Pharoah, Mubtaahij, Dortmund and Frosted. I missed Firing Line because I thought the pace would be faster and that he would be likely to back up.

Figures don't tell the whole story when you're handicapping, but they do tell the story of how good a performance was after the race. So if you're trying to pick a winner, just blow off the figures if you like. I'll still use them to assess the quality of a race in its historical context.

[PaceAdvantage]

u know what shove your site up your ****ing ass. I joined this site to talk horse racing, but all you fags want to do is be negative. A horse crushes the competition. "Oh no he sucks" he is overrated because the times are slow blah blah blah if there's one person in this world that knows horse racing. It is bob baffert and he says this might be the best horse he has ever trained, but you ****ing nerds who lose at the track im sure of it know more than Bob Baffert. Good luck trying to beat the races with your calculators. It takes skills to beat the races and you ****s cant buy that no matter how many different figures you get your hands on. Keep crunching those numbers ****ing losers :ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp::ThmbUp:Hah! I knew this was coming...15 plus years of running this website hones your instincts to priceless gems like this guy... :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

[TwirlingCandy]

No, in my Derby preview I highlighted four major contenders - American Pharoah, Mubtaahij, Dortmund and Frosted. I missed Firing Line because I thought the pace would be faster and that he would be likely to back up.

Figures don't tell the whole story when you're handicapping, but they do tell the story of how good a performance was after the race. So if you're trying to pick a winner, just blow off the figures if you like. I'll still use them to assess the quality of a race in its historical context. and beating sham over and over makes you the greatest because the times were fast? who the **** really knows how fast those tracks were back then

[PaceAdvantage]

and beating sham over and over makes you the greatest because the times were fast? who the **** really knows how fast those tracks were back thenYou do realize by now that certain profanities are automatically censored...you should be more creative.

You are the creative type, after all. No calculators for you! :lol: :lol: :lol:

[BlueChip@DRF]

That guy needs a hug or something.

[TwirlingCandy]

Hah! I knew this was coming...15 plus years of running this website hones your instincts to priceless gems like this guy... :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: joining twitter and now this site has made me realize that horse players are just idiots with big egos. nothing more.

[PaceAdvantage]

joining twitter and now this site has made me realize that horse players are just idiots with big egos. nothing more.Oh no!

[Relwob Owner]

joining twitter and now this site has made me realize that horse players are just idiots with big egos. nothing more.


Kinda makes one wonder why you are on here. Seems kind of idiotic to knowingly subject yourself to something you dont like, no?