My fair oddsline

[raybo]

I've been messing with the fair odds line in my Black Box. Thought I'd post a couple of races leading up to the Preakness today. The object of the oddsline, for me, is to concentrate on the "Fair Odds" and their rankings. Only bet when the actual odds are as high or higher than the fair odds.

PIM 05/16/2015
Race 12 8.50f Turf
Longines Dixie-G2
Horse
Prog. # Fair Odds Rank
1 ----------9.9-------6
2 ---------14.9------13
3 ---------11.4------7
4 ----------9.8-------5
5 ---------12.5------12
6 ---------11.9------10
7 ---------22.2------14
8 ---------11.7-------8
9 ----------8.2-------3
10 --------12.5------11
11 ---------5.4-------1
12 ---------5.5-------2

14 --------11.7------9
15 ---------8.9-------4

[TexasDolly]

Hi Raybo, What does that line add up to in total pct. ?
Thanks,
TD

[raybo]

The probability percentages adds up to 100.01, the fair odds add up to 116.4.

[TexasDolly]

Quick glance the prob. pct looked somewhat bigger than 100 to me.

[TexasDolly]

The probability percentages adds up to 100.01, the fair odds add up to 116.4.

I did a rough calc got over 120 pct for the prob . I used the actual pct prob. i.e. pct =1/(odds+1)

[raybo]

Race 12 finished 2 3 11 12. My top two fair odds horses finished 3rd at 5/1 and 4th at 5/2 respectively. 11 would have been a bet (an overlay) but 12 would not (an underlay). 2 was 7/1 (a severe underlay), and 3 was 25/1(a severe overlay). But both of those horses rankings were too high to bet to win.

[raybo]

PIM 05/16/2015
Race 13 9.50f Dirt
Xpressbetcom Preakness-G1
Horse
Prog. # Fair Odds Rank
-------1-------1.4--------1
-------2-------3.7--------2
-------3------13.5-------4
-------4------22.9-------5
-------5
-------6------44.6-------7
-------7------26.5-------6
-------8-------3.8--------3

5 rates too low to get an oddline.

[raybo]

Raining!!

[raybo]

Ok, I'm convinced now. American Pharoah is the best of the big 3, without a doubt, sloppy track or not. He ran very good fractions and just kept going!

Here he comes Belmont!!!

[raybo]

I did a rough calc got over 120 pct for the prob . I used the actual pct prob. i.e. pct =1/(odds+1)

Odds %
49.23
19.17
5.17
3.06
0.95
1.57
2.64
18.22

100.01

[judd]

PIM 05/16/2015
Race 13 9.50f Dirt
Xpressbetcom Preakness-G1
Horse
Prog. # Fair Odds Rank
-------1-------1.4--------1
-------2-------3.7--------2
-------3------13.5-------4
-------4------22.9-------5
-------5
-------6------44.6-------7
-------7------26.5-------6
-------8-------3.8--------3

5 rates too low to get an oddline.
Didn't rate too low for me ;)

[raybo]

Didn't rate too low for me ;)

Good for you! Almost every horse in the race backed down or faded, of course some that didn't will have a finish better than they would normally on a dry fast track.

If you have a better odds line, I'm all ears!! I truly mean that too.

[TexasDolly]

Odds %
49.23
19.17
5.17
3.06
0.95
1.57
2.64
18.22

100.01

My comment was relative to the odds you posted for the 12th race not the 13th. The prob pct seemed high to me and looks like it is.
Thanks,
TD

[raybo]

My comment was relative to the odds you posted for the 12th race not the 13th. The prob pct seemed high to me and looks like it is.
Thanks,
TD

Odds %
7.16
4.73
6.18
7.21
5.62
5.94
3.17
6.04
8.58
5.66
13.03
12.76
Scr
6.02
7.90
Scr__
100.00

[TexasDolly]

Odds %
7.16
4.73
6.18
7.21
5.62
5.94
3.17
6.04
8.58
5.66
13.03
12.76
Scr
6.02
7.90
Scr__
100.00

raybo, I guess you make some adj for the pct. because of the takeout. Otherwise the pct numbers are all too low for the odds you show. I always felt like an oddsline was more useful if it was similar to the tote board not the morning line since that is number you will actually be making your decision on.
Thank you,
TD

[raybo]

raybo, I guess you make some adj for the pct. because of the takeout. Otherwise the pct numbers are all too low for the odds you show. I always felt like an oddsline was more useful if it was similar to the tote board not the morning line since that is number you will actually be making your decision on.
Thank you,
TD

I don't know how the fair odds are calculated, I got the line from the internet. All I did was add my ratings so it had something to calculate the probabilities from. The Power number and Confidence number can be changed by the user, depending on the class of the race and how confident you are in the ratings for a particular race.

The probabilities (Odds %) should equal 100%, but the odds line should actually include the takeout, because the live odds include the takeout. I don't know if the takeout is included in the fair odds or not, I assume so though.

[TexasDolly]

I don't know how the fair odds are calculated, I got the line from the internet. All I did was add my ratings so it had something to calculate the probabilities from. The Power number and Confidence number can be changed by the user, depending on the class of the race and how confident you are in the ratings for a particular race.

The probabilities (Odds %) should equal 100%, but the odds line should actually include the takeout, because the live odds include the takeout. I don't know if the takeout is included in the fair odds or not, I assume so though.

I'm not sure what you mean by includes the takeout ,but the tote board price is the one you get i.e. if it is 3/1 you
get $ 8.00. If you mean the odds should have a pct that sums to ~ 120% that would be your choice . My lines always sum to 100% so they are directly comparable to the tote board where you must make some form of mental adjustment if your line is presented to 120% like the fair odds line does for the 12th race. No big deal but it's just easier for me to compare the
two.In other words, I can't see any practical benefit in presenting the odds line to include the takeout.As a matter of interest some software packsges adjust the ML and display it as a 100% line beside the original ML since it is more realistic.
Thank you,
TD

[raybo]

I don't know the math but most here agree that the higher the takeout the lower the odds you receive. So, the final odds are affected by the takeout, before you see them. The 3/1 you see on the board is after the takeout has been removed from the pool.

I'm sure Jeff can explain it so you can understand it.

[TexasDolly]

I don't know the math but most here agree that the higher the takeout the lower the odds you receive. So, the final odds are affected by the takeout, before you see them. The 3/1 you see on the board is after the takeout has been removed from the pool.

I'm sure Jeff can explain it so you can understand it.

Raybo, I understand it okay.I know that the 3/1 is after the takeout. My point is that the fair odds line should be compared to the tote board for betting purposes and hence it
should represent the same thing. Otherwise,why would you make
it ? No more ,no less.
Thank you,
TD

[raybo]

Raybo, I understand it okay.I know that the 3/1 is after the takeout. My point is that the fair odds line should be compared to the tote board for betting purposes and hence it
should represent the same thing. Otherwise,why would you make
it ? No more ,no less.
Thank you,
TD

I guess I'm not getting it. If the live odds reflect the takeout, and you want your fair odds to be comparable to the live odds, then why would you not want your fair odds to also reflect the takeout? I must be missing something here.

[TexasDolly]

I guess I'm not getting it. If the live odds reflect the takeout, and you want your fair odds to be comparable to the live odds, then why would you not want your fair odds to also reflect the takeout? I must be missing something here.

Raybo, the tote board -live odds- has had the takeout removed/taken. The approximate odds for each horse(payout) and the exotic payouts are then calculated and displayed. That is why it is easier for to look at my odds line that has a sum(probability pct) equal to 100 %
since I can now roughly determine the overlays.
I am going to send you a PM with a link that will help to explain it.
Thank you,
TD

[raybo]

Raybo, the tote board -live odds- has had the takeout removed/taken. The approximate odds for each horse(payout) and the exotic payouts are then calculated and displayed. That is why it is easier for to look at my odds line that has a sum(probability pct) equal to 100 %
since I can now roughly determine the overlays.
I am going to send you a PM with a link that will help to explain it.
Thank you,
TD

IMO, any comparison between fair odds and tote odds should be as close to an "apples to apples" comparison as possible. The takeout being removed from the pools, before the odds are calculated, decreases the odds on some horses, displayed on the toteboard from what they would be if no takeout was removed from each bet. Otherwise, the tracks could calculate the odds before the takeout was removed and then remove it later. But, if they did that, the whole pool would have to be paid out in order for the odds to reflect the money wagered, and then there would be no money left for the track, state, etc..

[TexasDolly]

IMO, any comparison between fair odds and tote odds should be as close to an "apples to apples" comparison as possible. The takeout being removed from the pools, before the odds are calculated, decreases the odds on some horses, displayed on the toteboard from what they would be if no takeout was removed from each bet. Otherwise, the tracks could calculate the odds before the takeout was removed and then remove it later. But, if they did that, the whole pool would have to be paid out in order for the odds to reflect the money wagered, and then there would be no money left for the track, state, etc..

Sorry Raybo, while your point of view seems to now be correct,your numbers do not reflect that.Maybe that's been the problem all along. The first horse you posted on race #12 had a fair odds of 9.9 to 1. However when you posted the probability pct for that horse it was 7.16 % . Had you computed the pct from odds you posted you would have seen the sum ~ 120 or so. i.e. the 9.9 odds horse would have been 9.1 % and so on. That was the reason I commented that your fair odds line didn't total 100, and it doesn't. The later numbers (post 14) have removed the takeout. If you compute the odds that correspond to that 7.1% the odds would be ~ 13/1 not 9.9/1. In other words the pct you show and the fair odds are not the same and only the odds that can be computed from those listed in post 14 pct can be compared easily to the tote board. The fair odds as posted are not the same as the tote board odds. Your fair odds line doesn't add up to 100 % . I realize that the post 14 pct do add to 100% but those pct did not come from the odds as you posted them in the OP. An adhjustment has clearly been made.
Thank you,
TD