Preakness odds

[cnollfan]

This is what the odds look like based on the Black Eyed Susan - Preakness double possibles with $100k in the pool:

1. American Pharoah even
2. Dortmund 9/2
3. Mr. Z 40-1
4. Danzig Moon 20-1
5. Tale of Verve 55-1
6. Bodhisattva 70-1
7. Divining Rod 9/2
8. Firing Line 7/2

[boys at tosconova]

divining rod 9-2..lol

[upthecreek]

I used #7 in the BES-Preakness DD-i didn't use AP

[boys at tosconova]

win betting this early doesn't mean that much. but those kind of odds on DR make him @ 1/9 to 4/5 to finish at least 4th

[dilanesp]

I'm glad to see someone do this.

I'm really sick of outlets reporting the first day odds of TC races based on win betting. They are never close to what the final odds will be, because people don't see the tote board when they bet and most of the betting will occur after people can see the odds which affects the betting a lot.

But this is a nice idea and might turn out to be more accurate.

[Some_One]

win betting this early doesn't mean that much. but those kind of odds on DR make him @ 1/9 to 4/5 to finish at least 4th

The double pools are a better indicator then just the early win pool for the race itsself. Not perfect obviously.

[upthecreek]

heres the odds as of 2PM

[boys at tosconova]

heres the odds as of 2PM


9-1 on dorts seems high. i don;t think he wins, but if those odds hold, that is value..9-2 certainly isn;t...but i prolly still won;t bet him, as i don;t think you'll end up getting 20 for 2

[cnollfan]

Update on odds based on Black Eyed Susan possibles:

American Pharoah 6/5
Dortmund 7/2
Mr. Z 25-1
Danzig Moon 11-1
Tale of Verve 35-1
Bodhisattva 45-1
Divining Rod 8-1
Firing Line 5/2

[upthecreek]

$2 Double Pays:
1 $86.60
2 $192.40
3 $1,063.60
4 $507.40
5 $1,595.80
6 $1,870.20
7 $366.60
8 $156.00

[olddaddy]

I heard on tvg that dortmund is at 7/1 in advance wagering. Is there any place I can access the advance wagering odds?

[cj]

I heard on tvg that dortmund is at 7/1 in advance wagering. Is there any place I can access the advance wagering odds?

http://www.courier-journal.com/story/sports/horses/triple/preakness/2015/05/15/preakness-2015--updated-advanced-wagering-odds-from-pimlico/27399957/

[olddaddy]

thank you

[thaskalos]

http://www.courier-journal.com/story/sports/horses/triple/preakness/2015/05/15/preakness-2015--updated-advanced-wagering-odds-from-pimlico/27399957/
I would gladly buy lunch for Newsday's Ed McNamara, so I could talk horses with him. :ThmbUp:

[raybo]

Here is the Fair Odds Line in my Black Box for the Preakness (I have made no subjective adjustments to the line, this is just as the program calculates it):

[dilanesp]

Here is the Fair Odds Line in my Black Box for the Preakness.

Correct me if I'm wrong, it sounds like your computer is recommending a pass (at least to win).

[raybo]

Correct me if I'm wrong, it sounds like your computer is recommending a pass (at least to win).

Don't know how you got that idea. :confused:

If the fair odds are as high or higher than the actual odds, then it is an overlay and, theoretically, a good bet. If you are speaking specifically about American Pharoah, his actual odds should be 1.4/1 or higher to make him a good bet to win.

[ultracapper]

Pimlico accepts $1 W,P, and S bets, at least at TVG.com. I'm betting $1 to win on American Pharoah, just because I can.

[ultracapper]

I would gladly buy lunch for Newsday's Ed McNamara, so I could talk horses with him. :ThmbUp:

I'll split the tab with you.

[ultracapper]

McNamara reported live from Pimlico about half an hour ago that a number of the toilets at the track are not operating properly, probably due to the volume today.

No Shit (no pun intended). This is an honest-to-God report, live from the track.

[ultracapper]

Firing Line is a huge favorite in the show pool. It'll be interesting to see if large show bets start coming in on the Even-Money favorite to balance that out. Right now it's about $3 in the show pool for Firing Line for every $2 for A/P. There's over $1M in the show pool between those 2 alone. I could see $1M coming in on A/P in the show pool between now and post time,

[woodtoo]

I can see myself betting :4: to show

[ultracapper]

Only the big 3 have more to place on them than to show. The pools are whacked. Kind of interesting to see if the "black boxes" correct "the market".

[Secondbest]

Crushed them

[raybo]

For all those who thought AP was special, well, he is! I'm convinced now that he is the better horse of the big 3. Took me a while, but there it is.

Here he comes Belmont!!!