Preakness 2015 Contenders / Value Line / Analysis

[PaceAdvantage]

On the homepage: http://www.paceadvantage.com

[boys at tosconova]

there's no value in dorts. just more inherent risk.

i'd be willing to bet just about every payout between him an FL will be relatively equal +/- a few, especially in exotics underneath AP.

[Robert Fischer]

On the homepage: http://www.paceadvantage.com

Enjoy reading these, Pace.

Bold value line here with your suggestion that American Pharoah will be a big underlay.

Thanks!

[DeltaLover]

On the homepage: http://www.paceadvantage.com

Very reasonable handicapping and very high possibility to hit the tri again (as you did in the Derby).

I have to admit that I consider AP to have better win chances than D. Still, I agree with the spirit of your approach, that does not indicate any major surprise in this year's Preakness.

My bottom line is that, I will try to only watch (of course this is easier to say than do, especially for a complete degen like myself!)

[Lemon Drop Husker]

On the homepage: http://www.paceadvantage.com

Good stuff PA, and I'm in complete agreement.

:1: American Pharoah: No doubt he'll be tough to beat, but now he as Dortmund right by him and can crowd him from wire to wire if need be and maybe even pinch him. Yeah, yeah, I know.., same barn. But these are different owners and jockeys who want their piece as well.

:2: Dortmund: We can't possibly get him at 9/2.., can we? 7/2 is a gift in this field. Love him in this spot and I've made every reason ever made imaginable to bet against him during this Triple Crown season.

:3: Mr. Z: He'll look to push to the front. He has to in order to have any chance. He is right next to Dortmund, which will be his failure and excuse for getting banged around and finishing last.

:4: Danzig Moon: I liked him in the Derby to maybe clean up some pieces, but he really didn't have many excuses for not at least coming forward a little in the stretch. My KD shot, becomes a complete toss for me here. The only play I may make is with him on top of a ridiculous ticket. An all or nothing sort completely dependent upon pace.

:5: Tale of Verve: Deep closer, but against Maidens. He is in deep here, but could complete some scraps when others simply have nothing left. Still tough to like above anything other than the 3 hole.

:6: Bodhisattva: He should add pace to the race and has the best jockey at the track in tow to make some kind of run. In the end, he is simply too slow.

:7: Divining Rod: The real wild card in this race. Does he get sent, does he rate, is he getting better? 5 career races and has always been in the picture. His last at Keeneland shows a different style that could make him playable. The change to Castellano could also be significant. He is getting action in early pools, so he is the biggest tote watching horse in the field.

:8: Firing Line: I think the Derby took quite a bit out of this one. He has never ran out of the Exacta in 6 career races, but he has only won twice. He seems to find a way to lose, and will now be facing 2 horses he has a losing record against with the furthest most outside post. Of the Big 3, this is my pick to finish up the track and not complete the Trifecta, and maybe not even the Superfecta.

:2:/:1::7:/:1::4::5::7:/ALL

[Cratos]

I went with Dortmund in the Derby and will go with him again in the Preakness although I will be a non-bettor because I am not as a strong supporter of Dortmund as I was before the Derby.

My primary reason for this reduced support is when I compared the results of Dortmund and American Pharoah from the Derby, I found American Pharoah to be about 1.7 seconds faster, but as reported on this Forum, Dortmund was stricken with a mild bout of colic and if that was true, Dortmund might move forward, but how much?

However I do believe if you are hoping to get value on Dortmund the Preakness might be the race because if he wins this race, he would probably be the favorite to win the Belmont.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

Dave Weaver is making wagers around the :4: Danzig Moon as his key horse.

Can't fade that horse enough... :lol: