View Full Version : Preakness 2015 Contenders / Value Line / Analysis

05-14-2015, 11:12 PM
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/2.jpg Dortmund (3-1)
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/8.jpg Firing Line (7-2)
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/1.jpg American Pharoah (9-2)
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/4.jpg Danzig Moon(11-1)

Sometimes I hate figures. The figures are telling me Dortmund is the definite speed of the Preakness. There is no doubt he will be going to the front, and there doesn't appear to be anybody to run with him early, unless they are looking to compromise their chances of winning.

The figures are also telling me I'll probably get 3-1 on Dortmund...in fact, I'm sure I will. I think Dortmund's finish last time out will make him the third choice in this race behind American Pharoah and Firing Line, the first two finishers in the Derby.

And I'll bet Dortmund, because I'm a figure guy, and when the figures show me that the 4/5 morning line favorite isn't unbeatable, I'll bet against him with vigor. That's what this game is all about.

But then something hits me. American Pharoah is only making the fourth start of his three-year-old campaign, a campaign that saw him on the sidelines for 168 days after being a vet scratch in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile back in November due to injury. Dortmund is making his fifth and has never really had a solid break in seven career starts. Firing Line will be making only his fourth 3YO start as well, but again, he's never been on the shelf since his career debut. Both Dortmund and Firing Line are coming off their toughest races to date. Either one or both could easily succumb to the toll the Derby may have taken on each of them.

So this means American Pharoah, despite being pushed pretty hard in the longest race of his career last time out, has every right to improve at Pimlico. That injury just prior to the Breeders' Cup may turn out to be a huge blessing in disguise, as far as I'm concerned. This horse scares the living daylights out of me. I'll bet the perceived value horse in Dortmund, but I won't blink an eye if American Pharoah strolls to an easy win in the Preakness and takes his Triple Crown train rolling into Belmont Park on June 6.

One other horse to keep your eye on is Danzig Moon. This horse didn't have the best of trips in the Derby, which might be an understatement, but still ran a very respectable and even fifth. He's shown improvement with each and every start this year, and he's the best closer in the race. If someone pushes Dortmund into a quicker pace early, I think this one has a very good chance at adding a little shazam to trifectas and superfectas, and maybe even the exacta.