PREAKNESS Races coming soon

[MitchS]

Hi Everyone,

Been awhile since I’ve posted picks. Since It’s a special weekend and I'm just gonna be hanging out. Thought I’d post some selections and unveil what I’ve been working on the last year or so. It’s a little out there. Are you ready? :)

I've attached 2 files in this thread.

1. xls file. MNR a couple days ago. My personal worksheet I use. First 3 races on this card were unplayable by my standards.
2. txt file with an explanation as to what the sheet represents.

I thought since Preakness day was nearing, I'd give interested parties a heads up and also make sure I'd be able to attach the files without a problem the day before.

I'll be back in this thread Friday night (tomorrow) with the full Preakness card.

Mitch

[MitchS]

I can't seem to add another file attachment to this thread so I'll start a new thread with the updated file for Pimlico for 5-16-2015.

[MitchS]

Hello Everyone,

Had a problem with the attachment editor but I figured it out. Attached is the updated file for Pimlico on Saturday 5-16-2015. Make sure and look at the red arrow for comments on each race. I've made comments in this section.

Be back in the thread later,
Mitch

[MitchS]

Good morning,

I realize that on big racing days, a lot of non-members come to this board and cannot access attachments without signing up. With this in mind, I put up a couple of direct download links to access the selections directly.

Pimlico 5-16-2015- Full card selections
http://s000.tinyupload.com/?file_id=08382217258209880455

Documentation- Explaining the selections
http://s000.tinyupload.com/?file_id=04905653969962215303

I'll be back in the thread before post time with updates to selections after scratches.

[powerrun]

Thanks for taking the time to post this information and for the selection ideas. Good luck today!

[MitchS]

Thanks powerrun. Have an enjoyable day and weekend!

I'm doing some updates. Be back in a few minutes.

[MitchS]

BTW... I'll be around, close to the thread most of the day if anyone want to talk about a particular race. It's a very relaxing day for me with no distractions :)


I usually don't bet this kind of race, but I know others do so here are my picks for the 1st race-

:1:st Race-

:1a: - 7/2
:4: - 7/2
:5: - 9/2
:1: - 9/2


Be back for scratch information on races, 2,9 and 12

[MitchS]

Humm... I looked at what I wrote about the first race after the race was over and realized what was written was inaccurate. I had two sets of figures. 1. Horses with good workouts and 2. Horses that I liked. I had written down the wrong set, lol... No big deal didn't bet anyway...But I did have something to mention about the data and the result. Oh well, There will be other examples later..

Up to date scratches on the 2nd-

:7: - 5/2
:5: - 4/1
:1a: - 9/2
:2: - 9/2

[MitchS]

I'm not gonna narrate every race but did wanna mention one quick thing as pertains to the data represented and mutual payoffs.

In race two. Mutual data projection at the time of :05, which the race finished leading into :18 was SM- M to SM shows favorite is most likely to lose, but not a great payoff either. Value then was in the top 2 selections. 2nd choice winning the race.

Be back later with scratches on races 9 and 12

[maskedmagician]

good luck

[MitchS]

Thanks maskedmagician, You too. Actually not gonna be betting very many races. Only a few decent opportunities on this card. We'll see how it unfolds and if any good bets present themselves.

[MitchS]

Scratch update race 9-

:9: th-

:8: - 3/1
:3: - 3/1
:6: - 6/1

Complete- 8,3,6,13,11

[MitchS]

Scratch update- Race 12

:12: th Race-

:4: - 6/1
:14: - 6/1
:15: - 6/1

Complete- 4,14,15,9,12

[MitchS]

A couple of decent value wins and exotics so far. I'm doing a little handicapping on this next race PIM #11. Shooting for the moon, lol

Slight change to my selections on the sheet as I'm adding the #4

:5:
:4:
:7:
:9:


About 6/1 on each

[MitchS]

Yea, Didn't end up betting that race. Went off too quick. Final time was at :47, red zone SM-S indicating the favorite and a low price. Amazing! lol

[MitchS]

Results time-

I knew before this day started that is was going to be rather unproductive. I could tell by all the red zones on a lot of races. The mutual projections were pretty consistent although. I was hoping for the best, but we just couldn't get a good price horse home and or good situations. When I use this kind of analysis, just like the MNR example card. I look for high green zones and or orange zones with no red zones close to the configuration to make high confidence wagers. In combination, we want to see a mutual projection of either, SM-M-ML with these good green or even the orange zones. Red zones in the area just cause havoc! lol

Now obviously if we bet every value play on every race I presented in the sheet. We had 13 races and 19 value bets. Only 3 winners of $9.60, $9.00 and $11.40. A little loss there but not too bad. If you bet the top selection to win only, there were 3 short priced winners. $6.00, $6.00 and $6.80. Again a little loss. Either one of those ways, I would never pursue.

The correct way. Betting only with Green and orange zones. No red zones anywhere close in the area went like this

2nd race- 2 value bets- Winner- $9.60
3rd race- 1 value bet- out
5th race- 1 value bet out
8th race- 1 value bet out
9th race 2 value bets out
10th race- 2 value bets- Winner $11.40
13th race- 1 value bet- out

10 bets
2 winners
20% Winners
Bet total- $20.00
Total won- $21.00
Profit +$1.00


Yeap, pretty nasty. lol... But, I think we did show the value of this (and why I'm pursuing this methodology) as presented in the short document of very basic information.


Thanks everybody for downloading the sheet and following along. I certainly hope everyone has a great rest of your weekend. Myself, I'm shutting it down for the rest of the weekend. Church tomorrow and resting on the holy day. It's not easy being a born again Christian, lol

God bless,
Mitch