Best Value

[nads1420]

Gotta say at 7/2 a flat Dortmund win bet might make the best value. Is the gap between Dortmund and AP that much?

[minethatbird08]

Passing on the race is the best value.

[DeltaLover]

Gotta say at 7/2 a flat Dortmund win bet might make the best value. Is the gap between Dortmund and AP that much?

Passing the race is probably best..

[BlueChip@DRF]

You want American Pharoah to win. In this sense, you can play against him with those funny pool odds because of all the $2 Win souvenir tickets on him and score. Or you will be able to witness a coronation.

WIN/WIN :cool:

[depalma113]

American Pharoah should be 1/5 against this field. He is the best value in this race.

[boys at tosconova]

Gotta say at 7/2 a flat Dortmund win bet might make the best value. Is the gap between Dortmund and AP that much?

although not made public. all insiders trackside say it's pretty much a known fact that AP is superior to dorts.


http://i296.photobucket.com/albums/mm200/robitusson1/bth_bill-cosby-no-gif_zps9dd393b7.gif

[Robert Fischer]

Gotta say at 7/2 a flat Dortmund win bet might make the best value. Is the gap between Dortmund and AP that much?

If you feel American Pharoah is a huge underlay, then Dortmund is a value.

If you love American Pharoah, 7/2 isn't much, if any value.

[DelMarJay]

American Pharoah should be 1/5 against this field. He is the best value in this race.


He barely passed Dortmund and Firing Line at 10X those odds in the last. Add to that the whipping amounts and I can only hope you are being sarcastic with the odds and value.

[depalma113]

He barely passed Dortmund and Firing Line at 10X those odds in the last. Add to that the whipping amounts and I can only hope you are being sarcastic with the odds and value.

Sarcastic? Hardly.

He put Dortmund away with more than an eighth of a mile to go in the Derby and Firing Line had an absolutely perfect trip and was finished with a sixteenth to go. The shorter distance is not going to help. AP most likely goes to the lead and never looks back.

He is vastly superior to everything in this field just as he was in the Derby.

I said he should have been even money in the Derby. I got a gift at 2.9-1. I expect more of the same this time too.

Finally, in regards to the whipping. It is meaningless. I could care less if pretty pony fans are upset. The horse was not affected by it in the least.

[Some_One]

AP to show I think will be the best value, last year CC payed 20 cents to the dollar as a .50 fav with the top 3 choices finishing ITM, I think one of FL or Dort will run out so the payoff should be better this year with just as good as a fav.

[maddog42]

American Pharoah should be 1/5 against this field. He is the best value in this race.

I HOPE you are kidding. 1/5 is way,way off.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

The :8: in the 9th and the :9: in the 10th.

[Stillriledup]

Firing Line will be bet heavily in here, he will be 2nd choice. Post 1 is a tough spot considering AP's "Style" and the way the race shapes up. Baffert may take Dortmund way back and try and make one run, he may be more effective with that strategy.

[letswastemoney]

AP to show I think will be the best value, last year CC payed 20 cents to the dollar as a .50 fav with the top 3 choices finishing ITM, I think one of FL or Dort will run out so the payoff should be better this year with just as good as a fav.This goes against everything I was taught about show betting. Getting a measly 2.20 to 2.50 payoff on a star horse like American Pharoah is never a good idea.

You're better off going with Danzig Moon or Tale of Verve to show and hoping American Pharoah or one of the big 3 dumps his jockey.

[Robert Goren]

Dortmund needs an early speed favoring track to win. We won't know if there be a an early speed favoring track until Saturday. Without that kind of track, Dortmund chances are very slim (5% or less).

[Some_One]

This goes against everything I was taught about show betting. Getting a measly 2.20 to 2.50 payoff on a star horse like American Pharoah is never a good idea.

You're better off going with Danzig Moon or Tale of Verve to show and hoping American Pharoah or one of the big 3 dumps his jockey.

And you are wrong, typical fav avoidence mindset.

In my db, in 8 horse fields I got favs under 3/2 running ITM at 81% for a -9% ROI, horses between 8 and 14 (the range I expect Danzig Moon to go in) come ITM at 30% for a -23% ROI clip. Plus lower winning percentage worse for your bankroll as per Kelly criterion.

It's the fav-longshot bias, you see it everyday, people rather chase the bombs, this isn't the race to chase bombs, especially when less then half the field will be below natural odds.

[lamboguy]

American Pharoah should be 1/5 against this field. He is the best value in this race.before the derby i could never bet on AMERICAN PHAROAH. he came out of a pretty blank race. this time around he comes out of a real good race that he basically spotted the other horses 7 lengths by the trip he got for the race. if you want to believe the people that are involved with this horse, they say they haven't got to the bottom of him yet. add to all this that the trainer is probably the most experienced guy alive in being able to prepare a horse for the triple crown series, it will be pretty tough to beat this horse on Saturday. i make fair odds .25 to the dollar, or payoff of $2.50.

[DelMarJay]

Can someone please, please, get exchange wagering OK'd pronto!

[ISU-horse]

AP to show I think will be the best value, last year CC payed 20 cents to the dollar as a .50 fav with the top 3 choices finishing ITM, I think one of FL or Dort will run out so the payoff should be better this year with just as good as a fav.

So last year if you put $50 on CC to show, that would have paid $10?

What do you think Dortmund would pay to show?

[Some_One]

So last year if you put $50 on CC to show, that would have paid $10?

What do you think Dortmund would pay to show?

Social Inclusion paid 3.40 last year as a 5-1 choice, so somewhere in that ballpark.

[Some_One]

Social Inclusion paid 3.40 last year as a 5-1 choice, so somewhere in that ballpark.

Because it appears I have way too much time on my hands, for the Preakness, I looked at the charts since 2000, and took the post time fav, the 3rd choice, and the lowest longshot (so odds above natural odds and at least 4th choice, ie in a 10 horse field, looking for 10-1+) and recorded what a show bet payoff would result. And yes those longshots like Bernardini pay good, you just don't hit many

http://i57.tinypic.com/21c837p.png

[RoyalHeroine]

To me this is a pass race also.

I might put a $10 exacta AP to Danzig Moon if I need some action as he - besides AP - is the most likely to improve the most in my mind.

Have to watch closely how the track is playing; especially if there seems to be any bias, inside or outside.

[boys at tosconova]

how can you pass. never has a TC race looked this easy

you'll likely never see a trip or super this monkey driven easy to pick in such a high level race.

[Robert Fischer]

how can you pass. never has a TC race looked this easy

you'll likely never see a trip or super this monkey driven easy to pick in such a high level race.

serious question - what is your superfecta?

it looks tough to me. I have 2 horses that I feel are VERY strong, but then I need much of the field...
you?

[DeltaLover]

serious question - what is your superfecta?

it looks tough to me. I have 2 horses that I feel are VERY strong, but then I need much of the field...
you?

I have to agree with what you are saying here. The race might seem simple to handicap, but the problem is that this view is shared by almost anyone who will be betting on it..

I see three possible betting options for this race:

(1)Nail it down to a cold exacta or even tri

(2)Take a contrarian stance, picking one of the longshots for the top spots

(3)Do not bother and stay out

[Robert Fischer]

I have to agree with what you are saying here. The race might seem simple to handicap, but the problem is that this view is shared by almost anyone who will be betting on it..

I see three possible betting options for this race:

(1)Nail it down to a cold exacta or even tri

(2)Take a contrarian stance, picking one of the longshots for the top spots

(3)Do not bother and stay out

You and I have similar general views here.

Given the "favorite-centric" nature of the parimutuel system, identifying a 'strong' favorite is always enough to provide big value.

In basic terms - all that means is that when we pay out winning favorites - there are a bunch of winning tickets, So... paying out all those winning tickets and the track takeout spreads the 'jackpot' relatively thin.

[Robert Fischer]

American Pharaoh is my very dominant win selection! (Value?) = very little if any.
Firing Line is my somewhat dominant place selection! (Value?) = very little if any.
Dortmund may not be on the superfecta ticket (Value?) = Moderate. Why not great value, you ask? Because after the Win and Place positions are decided we're only talking a 6 horse field for 3rd/4th with the public typically spreading in those positions. There's value here, but not great value.
Danzig Moon > Divining Rod = (Value?) =Small value. Divining Rod is a low-impact wise-guy horse here, taking money in early doubles, but not a ton of value here.
Mr. Z = Divining Rod = (Value?) = Small Value. See #4. Rod has a higher hit% than Z, but the odds discrepancy calls for balanced usage.
Danzig Moon, Divining Rod, Mr. Z > Dortmund, Bodhissatva, Tale of Verve = (Value?) = No value. - Already counted the vs.-Dortmund Value, I don't get that twice here, and those other two are already the Public's bottom contenders.
RECAP + POSSIBLE SUITED TIX:

I'm now looking at vertical exotics which exclude Dortmund, and that are weighted toward Danzig Moon.

Example:
$2 trifecta AP /FL/ DM
$1 trifecta AP/FL /DR,MR.Z


questions/comments?

[boys at tosconova]

the value is that the pools are going to be high, and even the fav numbers should come out more than they should.

AP
FL
DORT
DANZIG/DIVINE

do the same, maybe w/ dorts 2nd and FL 3rd.

big key is how much of a lock danzig and or divine is for 4th?..and if you want to get speculative,,,could dort be 4th or worse?

since there's only a few horses maybe a wheel for 4th is best utilized under these circumstances, as danzig and divine might look to compete and that will compromise chances for 4th.

sorry to disappoint if these are the fav's str8..but what can you do. except hammer the likely outcome.

i personally want to give FL a chance to win. so i may put him on top w/ AP second and the figures right behind...if dorts wins, than whoopie for him and i'll lose

[Robert Fischer]

You and I have similar general views here.

Given the "favorite-centric" nature of the parimutuel system, identifying a 'strong' favorite is not always enough to provide big value.

In basic terms - all that means is that when we pay out winning favorites - there are a bunch of winning tickets, So... paying out all those winning tickets and the track takeout spreads the 'jackpot' relatively thin.

typo

[Robert Fischer]

the value is that the pools are going to be high, and even the fav numbers should come out more than they should.

AP
FL
DORT
DANZIG/DIVINE

do the same, maybe w/ dorts 2nd and FL 3rd.

big key is how much of a lock danzig and or divine is for 4th?..and if you want to get speculative,,,could dort be 4th or worse?

since there's only a few horses maybe a wheel for 4th is best utilized under these circumstances, as danzig and divine might look to compete and that will compromise chances for 4th.

sorry to disappoint if these are the fav's str8..but what can you do. except hammer the likely outcome.

i personally want to give FL a chance to win. so i may put him on top w/ AP second and the figures right behind...if dorts wins, than whoopie for him and i'll lose

No argument here.

If you were whale or pro with no emotion, maybe you would completely pass such a race, but hey - this is the Preakness! right? Only live once.

If you are that confident, you can still hit a $50 chalky super and hammer it.
Nothing wrong there.

And if you like Firing Line to win, you will want to do at least a few small pick-3's or pick-4s' with FL 'singled'.
He's a bigger price in those races than he will be in say a super with AP 2ND.
For some reason when you've got a Heavy Fav + a 2nd choice, reversing that order of finish doesn't pay out as big as you would think... So When you do put Firing Line on top also good to look at the mult-race sequences - particularly if you have a horse or two in the races surrounding the 2nd Jewel of the Triple Crown

[Lemon Drop Husker]

The :8: in the 9th and the :9: in the 10th.

:jump:

[Blenheim]

:7:

Gave the past performances a quick look, haven't followed this race as closely as some others, but it should be a good one to watch, plenty of room to run, no excuses. Lookin' forward to a good hoss' race.

Tough to beat the top three, but looks like that Tapit horse is rounding into the top of his form cycle. I would have liked to have seen some faster works, but trainer has him on the brink - may have backed off a bit on the works - looks to be settin' on his best race. Gets the cat bird seat w/a top jock switch; won goin' away last out. Lookin' for him to improve. Should be a fun race to watch.

[Clocker]

Dortmund needs an early speed favoring track to win. We won't know if there be a an early speed favoring track until Saturday. Without that kind of track, Dortmund chances are very slim (5% or less).

It looks like the rain is moving in. Dortmund doesn't show any off track races, but it could be to his advantage if he is kicking mud at the pressers. AP has a big wire to wire win in the slop at Oaklawn.

[Blenheim]

Javi look good in that last one on the grass! I think I got the right jock, runnin' hot! Hope the horse does the same. Lookin' forward to a good race.

The oncoming rain is a bit disconcerting . . .

[minethatbird08]

:jump:


Good Job!

[Tommy Tom]

I'm looking for an upset or at least a horse to add some big value to the Tri and Super so I went with #4, Danzig Moon

Wagered $180.00 including $1 Tri wheels of 4/ALL/ALL and ALL/4/ALL and than some $1.00 tri's using 1-2-3-8- with ALL with 4 and also ALL with 1-2-3-8 With 4 and also super 20 cent supers using 1-2-3-8-/All/All/4 and also ALL/1-2-3-8/ALL/4

Danzig Moon for the upset or to hit the board to light up the payoffs

Good luck everyone !

[Tommy Tom]

I'm looking for an upset or at least a horse to add some big value to the Tri and Super so I went with #4, Danzig Moon

Wagered $180.00 including $1 Tri wheels of 4/ALL/ALL and ALL/4/ALL and than some $1.00 tri's using 1-2-3-8- with ALL with 4 and also ALL with 1-2-3-8 With 4 and also super 20 cent supers using 1-2-3-8-/All/All/4 and also ALL/1-2-3-8/ALL/4

Danzig Moon for the upset or to hit the board to light up the payoffs

Good luck everyone !

Well that sure didn't work out :)

[depalma113]

I HOPE you are kidding. 1/5 is way,way off.

Easy Money!!!! Better than the stock market!!!

[Some_One]

I'll take my 45% ROI on AP, Firing Line had just as much money to show as AP, and when AP went foward, FL and Dort were DOA.

[lamboguy]

before the derby i could never bet on AMERICAN PHAROAH. he came out of a pretty blank race. this time around he comes out of a real good race that he basically spotted the other horses 7 lengths by the trip he got for the race. if you want to believe the people that are involved with this horse, they say they haven't got to the bottom of him yet. add to all this that the trainer is probably the most experienced guy alive in being able to prepare a horse for the triple crown series, it will be pretty tough to beat this horse on Saturday. i make fair odds .25 to the dollar, or payoff of $2.50.paid $3.80 for win

[lamboguy]

Can someone please, please, get exchange wagering OK'd pronto!
now i see what you mean

[depalma113]

He barely passed Dortmund and Firing Line at 10X those odds in the last. Add to that the whipping amounts and I can only hope you are being sarcastic with the odds and value.

I hope now you can see I don't make jokes when it comes to deciding what I feel is the right value to wager my money. ;)