7 horse field really sucks the fun out of the Preakness

[nads1420]

the race is unbetable with the exception of a pick 4 if you can find some bombs above....

[andtheyreoff]

Yeah, I mean, the 1978 Preakness, with six horses, was really a drag.

And don't even get me started on the five-horse 1978 Belmont. I can't even watch it without falling asleep.

[Robert Fischer]

Don't worry, be happy.


If you loved American Pharoah, then you weren't gonna get value.
If you loved Firing Line or Dortmund, they will still offer some value.


In my opinion (loving AP) I wasn't looking to bet the race for value. However, we have some really nice horses here, and could be watching history unfold.

[Rex Phinney]

I really sort of think the top three are the only ones that matter anyway. It will be a race worth watching (and maybe betting) as long as those three are there.

[cj]

Mr. Z makes 8.

[TheGarMan]

Mr. Z makes 8.

Didnt see that one coming...

Do we think he has has a "shot" to hit the board?

In the past he ran right there with Dort / Firing Line.

Use in exotics?

[PaceAdvantage]

Mr. Z makes 8.Lukas doesn't kidnap horses for the hell of it you know...

[MNslappy]

Lukas doesn't kidnap horses for the hell of it you know...

Exactly what I was thinking. If a trainer of his caliber is this adamant about running, I have to believe the horse has a real shot. Likely to be great value, maybe 5th or 6th choice out of 8. He'll definitely be all over my tickets.

[classhandicapper]

If Mr. Z wins the Preakness my head might explode.

It occasionally makes sense to swing for the fences.

It occasionally makes sense to run a horse more often than is typically the case these days.

It's another to swing for the fences every few weeks with an overmatched horse that seems to have some issues. There will probably be better spots on the undercard. It's not even like he'd have to look hard for an ALW race to get him through some conditions before moving him back up.

[minethatbird08]

If Mr. Z wins the Preakness my head might explode.

It occasionally makes sense to swing for the fences.

It occasionally makes sense to run a horse more often than is typically the case these days.

It's another to swing for the fences every few weeks with an overmatched horse that seems to have some issues. There will probably be better spots on the undercard. It's not even like he'd have to look hard for an ALW race to get him through some conditions before moving him back up.

That is what I don't get. A long time ago Lukas could have run him in some Alw race to get some confidence and moved him back up in class. This was a very solid horse as a 2yo early 3yo season; it was also clear he couldn't get by the top horses. I feel like Lukas didn't learn anything from his time with Charismatic.

[classhandicapper]

That is what I don't get. A long time ago Lukas could have run him in some Alw race to get some confidence and moved him back up in class. This was a very solid horse as a 2yo early 3yo season; it was also clear he couldn't get by the top horses. I feel like Lukas didn't learn anything from his time with Charismatic.

If you swing for the fences all the time you are probably going to hit a home run every once in awhile because you got a great trip, caught a biased track, the major contenders misfired or got bad trips, or the horse luckily moved forward on that day. But generally I think it's a very bad idea unless the field looks a little weak/vulnerable or your horse has been moving forward. This one looks like a wasted race to me much like the Derby. But maybe I'm too much of a singles hitter.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

If you swing for the fences all the time you are probably going to hit a home run every once in awhile because you got a great trip, caught a biased track, the major contenders misfired or got bad trips, or the horse luckily moved forward on that day. But generally I think it's a very bad idea unless the field looks a little weak/vulnerable or your horse has been moving forward. This one looks like a wasted race to me much like the Derby. But maybe I'm too much of a singles hitter.

Nope.

We have a 5 horse field at the Preakness because Mr. Z and Bodi-whatever his name is are complete cross offs for even hitting the board.

Worst Preakness in my wagering life which goes back to 1991. I will likely pass the race.

[Rex Phinney]

Is it really that hard to see Dortmund or Firing Line beating AP?

We all know the money will come in big time on AP from the casual fans.

If Dorty or FL wins, the exacta should pay well. Shoot even a tri bet with those two on top and AP in the 2 or 3 spot would be a nice payout. Is it that hard for some of you guys to take a shot against AP?

If either of those two gets anywhere near 5-1, I won't be able to help myself.

It's gambling after all, let's see some whippin and spurrin!

[thespaah]

the race is unbetable with the exception of a pick 4 if you can find some bombs above....
I'm surprised at the short field.....I bet there some connections kicking themselves.
There goes 1/3 of the potential handle....
Maybe there are connections who don't want to be anywhere near Baltimore?....
Who knows. I cannot believe connections are ducking AP...

[thespaah]

Yeah, I mean, the 1978 Preakness, with six horses, was really a drag.

And don't even get me started on the five-horse 1978 Belmont. I can't even watch it without falling asleep.
Apples to oranges.
The top three raced in all three TC races.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

I'm surprised at the short field.....I bet there some connections kicking themselves.
There goes 1/3 of the potential handle....
Maybe there are connections who don't want to be anywhere near Baltimore?....
Who knows. I cannot believe connections are ducking AP...

I'm with you, but the more I think about it, who should take a run at AP, Dort, and FL in the Preakness? A surprising 3rd for big time horses really isn't worth the wear and tear.

They all got whipped by those guys last time out. Carpe? Materiality? Upstart? Competitive Edge?

They have all cashed in on the Belmont. Frosted, Competitve Edge, and others will be prime and ready.

[thespaah]

I'm with you, but the more I think about it, who should take a run at AP, Dort, and FL in the Preakness? A surprising 3rd for big time horses really isn't worth the wear and tear.

They all got whipped by those guys last time out. Carpe? Materiality? Upstart? Competitive Edge?

They have all cashed in on the Belmont. Frosted, Competitve Edge, and others will be prime and ready.
I was thinking more along the lines of those NOT entered in the Derby...
Now if you look at your TC history, there are horses that are entered in the Belmont that either did not do the Preakness and Derby or raced in the Derby only....Then there are the "pointed to this race since January" horses that appear in the Belmont and WIN....

[PaceAdvantage]

I feel like Lukas didn't learn anything from his time with Charismatic.Ridiculous...what was there to learn?