Making money with Pharoah in The Preakness: Hit The Super

[nads1420]

So I wanted to start a thread yalking about hitting the super. The super usually seems to pay in the Preakness. Last year on the IBN Preakness preview there was a good snap shot of all the exotics payouts in the Preakness of recently. http://www.ibnsportswrap.com/article.php?articleID=1600

So I do think Pahroah wins. So Im all about constructing a good super ticket. Here is what Im thinking as of now.


American Pharoah W/ Firing Line, Dortmund, Materiality W/ Firing Line, Dortmund, Materiality, Danzig Moon, Divining Rod, Competitive Edge W/ Firing Line, Dortmund, Materiality, Danzig Moon, Divining Rod, Competitive Edge

Thats a $60 ticket per every $1.... And if Pharoah does win the odds of that ticket not hitting id say are better then 50%...



thoughts?


I also like playing the Pick 4 singling him

[raybo]

So I wanted to start a thread yalking about hitting the super. The super usually seems to pay in the Preakness. Last year on the IBN Preakness preview there was a good snap shot of all the exotics payouts in the Preakness of recently. http://www.ibnsportswrap.com/article.php?articleID=1600

So I do think Pahroah wins. So Im all about constructing a good super ticket. Here is what Im thinking as of now.


American Pharoah W/ Firing Line, Dortmund, Materiality W/ Firing Line, Dortmund, Materiality, Danzig Moon, Divining Rod, Competitive Edge W/ Firing Line, Dortmund, Materiality, Danzig Moon, Divining Rod, Competitive Edge

Thats a $60 ticket per every $1.... And if Pharoah does win the odds of that ticket not hitting id say are better then 50%...



thoughts?


I also like playing the Pick 4 singling him

I think this ticket would be a mistake. First of all you have AP, a low odds favorite on top, gobs of people will have him there (you just started cutting down the payout). Secondly, you have Firing Line and Dortmund on the place line, gobs of people will have them there too, plus your other two place horses are also going to be bet heavily on the place, show, and 4th lines (you just continued cutting down the payout). Thirdly, you have the same 4 horses on the show and 4th lines along with two others that will be bet on those lines by gobs of people.

In short you have stuck yourself in a closet you can't get out of, you have no horses on your ticket that will cause it to have value, should they come in. You'd probably be better off taking that $60 and betting a larger exacta with multiple horses on both lines. If you can't get at least 2 longshots on your single $1 superfecta ticket, the payout will probably not be as good, nor as probable of hitting, as a larger $base exacta, with more coverage on both lines.

[nads1420]

im gonna make other bets... but as far as the super goes thats just how i see the race ending up. sure id like to bet a bomb and have him hit but thats jusst not gonna happen. there are 4 horses in this that are far better then the rest.... if i can make that 60 dollar bet and have it pay out 400 im cool with that.. ill be making other bets as well

[Robert Fischer]

So I wanted to start a thread yalking about hitting the super. The super usually seems to pay in the Preakness. Last year on the IBN Preakness preview there was a good snap shot of all the exotics payouts in the Preakness of recently. http://www.ibnsportswrap.com/article.php?articleID=1600

So I do think Pahroah wins. So Im all about constructing a good super ticket. Here is what Im thinking as of now.


American Pharoah W/ Firing Line, Dortmund, Materiality W/ Firing Line, Dortmund, Materiality, Danzig Moon, Divining Rod, Competitive Edge W/ Firing Line, Dortmund, Materiality, Danzig Moon, Divining Rod, Competitive Edge

Thats a $60 ticket per every $1.... And if Pharoah does win the odds of that ticket not hitting id say are better then 50%...



thoughts?


I also like playing the Pick 4 singling him

You went "1/ 234/234567/234567" with the favorite on top and almost every horse in order of public odds.

You have a solid chance at hitting should the result be logical, however, you don't have any value built into your ticket.

It's a good ticket for trying to 'have' the super, but it's a long-term losing proposition.

[nads1420]

You went "1/ 234/234567/234567" with the favorite on top and almost every horse in order of public odds.

You have a solid chance at hitting should the result be logical, however, you don't have any value built into your ticket.

It's a good ticket for trying to 'have' the super, but it's a long-term losing proposition.


for me in this race im not betting the bombs in the super... the super im just gonna bet the most logical way i see the race unfolding. The Preakness does usually have the most logical outcome of the 3 races... im not saying no to bet the bombs and build value but not in the super... most of my other bets will be with the bombs.. but from a logical ticket i think trying to hit the super is the only way of doing it and getting some type of a return

[Robert Fischer]

for me in this race im not betting the bombs in the super... the super im just gonna bet the most logical way i see the race unfolding. The Preakness does usually have the most logical outcome of the 3 races... im not saying no to bet the bombs and build value but not in the super... most of my other bets will be with the bombs.. but from a logical ticket i think trying to hit the super is the only way of doing it and getting some type of a return

Your ticket is fine, if you want to say 'I had the super'.


If you are trying get some value from it, then start with your ticket as your rough-draft, and then come up with some opinions. There are a number of ways you can do this.

I'll try asking you a question. - Say American Pharoah wins, - Is there another horse that you feel is guaranteed to be SOMEWHERE in the super(either 2nd,3rd,or4th?). Who?

[DeltaLover]

thoughts?
I also like playing the Pick 4 singling him

Very weak approach. The sad true is that these is very little to be gained by playing AP in the Preakness.. Although the most frequent winner (by far), he will also be a huge underlay in all kinds of bets..

[raybo]

for me in this race im not betting the bombs in the super... the super im just gonna bet the most logical way i see the race unfolding. The Preakness does usually have the most logical outcome of the 3 races... im not saying no to bet the bombs and build value but not in the super... most of my other bets will be with the bombs.. but from a logical ticket i think trying to hit the super is the only way of doing it and getting some type of a return

You asked for our thoughts, if you have already made up your mind, then why ask? Good luck getting your $400 payout. And good luck with the race running the way almost everyone is going to bet it. Superfectas are valuable bet types, IF you can find good value, otherwise they are terrible bets because of the low hit rate (except for the dime supers to be used as savers/hedges for other value bets, by betting multiple horses on all 4 lines (good hit rate, and the possibility of hitting a very good payout should the low odds horses not win or come second)).

[thaskalos]

for me in this race im not betting the bombs in the super... the super im just gonna bet the most logical way i see the race unfolding. The Preakness does usually have the most logical outcome of the 3 races... im not saying no to bet the bombs and build value but not in the super... most of my other bets will be with the bombs.. but from a logical ticket i think trying to hit the super is the only way of doing it and getting some type of a return
There is only one guaranteed thing about the superfecta: You will never make a profit betting it if your opinion in the win and place slots does not deviate from the opinion of the general public's. Betting 60 combinations, with an odds-on pick on top and the other three betting choices for second, is about the worst bet that you could possibly make...in my opinion.

[nads1420]

You asked for our thoughts, if you have already made up your mind, then why ask? Good luck getting your $400 payout. And good luck with the race running the way almost everyone is going to bet it. Superfectas are valuable bet types, IF you can find good value, otherwise they are terrible bets because of the low hit rate (except for the dime supers to be used as savers/hedges for other value bets, by betting multiple horses on all 4 lines (good hit rate, and the possibility of hitting a very good payout should the low odds horses not win or come second)).

i appreciate the thoughts... what horses do you guys recommend using then? i see the bottom few longer odds horses as very weak... very very very weak


very well could rain all day do any of the longer odds horses like the slop?

weather.com says 84 and 80% rain/ accuweather.com says 82 and sunny - damn weather people cant make up there mind

[raybo]

There is only one guaranteed thing about the superfecta: You will never make a profit betting it if your opinion in the win and place slots does not deviate from the opinion of the general public's. Betting 60 combinations, with an odds-on pick on top and the other three betting choices for second, is about the worst bet that you could possibly make...in my opinion.

That's what I was trying to tell him. You have to weigh your ticket against how many other like tickets will be in the pool, which in his case will be a whole lot of tickets. The payout is determined by the size of the pool, and the number of winning tickets in that pool, nothing else.

[FlintAtTheFetlock]

So I wanted to start a thread yalking about hitting the super. The super usually seems to pay in the Preakness. Last year on the IBN Preakness preview there was a good snap shot of all the exotics payouts in the Preakness of recently. http://www.ibnsportswrap.com/article.php?articleID=1600

So I do think Pahroah wins. So Im all about constructing a good super ticket. Here is what Im thinking as of now.


American Pharoah W/ Firing Line, Dortmund, Materiality W/ Firing Line, Dortmund, Materiality, Danzig Moon, Divining Rod, Competitive Edge W/ Firing Line, Dortmund, Materiality, Danzig Moon, Divining Rod, Competitive Edge

Thats a $60 ticket per every $1.... And if Pharoah does win the odds of that ticket not hitting id say are better then 50%...



thoughts?


I also like playing the Pick 4 singling him

I think the SUPER is a good wagering option on this day. Rather than spread out for $60.00 you may want to play just a few combinations many times. It will be short money as little as $12.00 to give yourself a shot.

I think Firing Line will battle whoever is with him and come up just short again, so I'll single him second like I did on Derby day. This time I'll hit repeat a few times and if it comes in I’ll hope for a modest profit, perhaps better depending on who else I throw in the mix.

1 AP, Dorfman
2 Firing Line
3 AP, Dorfman
4 other Horse 1, other Horse 2, other Horse 3, etc.

something like above can cut down expense not eating up much of your winnings if you hit. Good Luck.

[Robert Fischer]

You asked for our thoughts, if you have already made up your mind, then why ask?

Good question.

I was 'duped' into thinking the topic was literal in nature. Not the first time either.

[f2tornado]

First, I'd wait to see which horses are actually going to be in the gate. I have not heard anything about Materiality or Competitive Edge. Second, I'd make the ticket a bit smaller or perhaps use that one for a dimer saver bet if those are offered on Preakness day. Consider a tri wheel which should offer far better value for the price than the chalk exacta. If the Pletcher horses don't run then you're left with AP/FL,DORT/FL,DORT,DM,DR. That's still gonna cost $8 for maybe a $25 payoff unless FL or DORT miss the board.

[DeltaLover]

what horses do you guys recommend using then?

Passing is your best option here.

[five-eighths]

Is the .10 Super an option in the Preakness? Can't recall from last year.

Also, noticed there was no mention of Carpe Diem. I know he had a lousy post in the Derby, would think he could have a decent shot to finish in the money.

[Robert Fischer]

Chrome's Preakness (http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbPDFChartPlus.cfm?RACE=12&BorP=P&TID=PIM&CTRY=USA&DT=05/17/2014&DAY=D&STYLE=EQB) isn't a perfect example, but a good one to look at:


Chrome (1/2 Heavy Fav)
Ride On Curlin (3rd Choice, in a group of three like-priced 10.30-1)
Social Inclusion (2nd Choice , a clear 2nd choice 5.3-1)
General A Rod (7th Choice, in a group of longer shots 20.1-1)

$1payout = $173.80 :ThmbUp:

$60 invested = pays $173.80
(1/234/234567/234567)=$60

lets say nads thought Social Inclusion was good, so he keyed him in the 3 spots:

1/ 2/34567/34567 =$20
1/ 34/2/234567 =$8
1/ 34/34567/2 =$8
total = $36
or $2 Super = $72 ($12 extra cost) , and now returns $347.60

So he had little additional opinion (he just 'keyed' the clear 2nd public choice in all 3 underneath spots), but he almost doubled his value, and did double his pay.

There is a lot more he could do, and there are different angles, but that is a good 'concrete' example.

[letswastemoney]

Maybe Tale of Verve can clunk his way into 4th.

[raybo]

Chrome's Preakness (http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbPDFChartPlus.cfm?RACE=12&BorP=P&TID=PIM&CTRY=USA&DT=05/17/2014&DAY=D&STYLE=EQB) isn't a perfect example, but a good one to look at:


Chrome (1/2 Heavy Fav)
Ride On Curlin (3rd Choice, in a group of three like-priced 10.30-1)
Social Inclusion (2nd Choice , a clear 2nd choice 5.3-1)
General A Rod (7th Choice, in a group of longer shots 20.1-1)

$1payout = $173.80 :ThmbUp:

$60 invested = pays $173.80
(1/234/234567/234567)=$60

lets say nads thought Social Inclusion was good, so he keyed him in the 3 spots:

1/ 2/34567/34567 =$20
1/ 34/2/234567 =$8
1/ 34/34567/2 =$8
total = $36
or $2 Super = $72 ($12 extra cost) , and now returns $347.60

So he had little additional opinion (he just 'keyed' the clear 2nd public choice in all 3 underneath spots), but he almost doubled his value, and did double his pay.

There is a lot more he could do, and there are different angles, but that is a good 'concrete' example.

Good advice, except he thinks he can get $400 for $1, with AP winning and Dortmund or Firing Line finishing 2nd, and one of those also getting 3rd. I would bet that that bet won't even pay $300 for $1 if it comes in that way, and $300 is my minimum expected payout (and I don't bet $60 to get $300, usually between $12 and $36 with a minimum expected payout of $300), or I pass the super.

[minethatbird08]

So I wanted to start a thread yalking about hitting the super. The super usually seems to pay in the Preakness. Last year on the IBN Preakness preview there was a good snap shot of all the exotics payouts in the Preakness of recently. http://www.ibnsportswrap.com/article.php?articleID=1600

So I do think Pahroah wins. So Im all about constructing a good super ticket. Here is what Im thinking as of now.


American Pharoah W/ Firing Line, Dortmund, Materiality W/ Firing Line, Dortmund, Materiality, Danzig Moon, Divining Rod, Competitive Edge W/ Firing Line, Dortmund, Materiality, Danzig Moon, Divining Rod, Competitive Edge

Thats a $60 ticket per every $1.... And if Pharoah does win the odds of that ticket not hitting id say are better then 50%...



thoughts?


I also like playing the Pick 4 singling him

Most of the good Preakness supers are due to a top Derby horse not landing in the super. Recent examples are Pioneer of the Nile, Super Saver, Mucho Macho Man. I think your type of ticket is what creates those big payouts. If you can't toss one of the Derby top 3 or find a good price horse to come in 2nd I don't think the super is worth it.

[f2tornado]

Good advice, except he thinks he can get $400 for $1, with AP winning and Dortmund or Firing Line finishing 2nd, and one of those also getting 3rd. I would bet that that bet won't even pay $300 for $1 if it comes in that way, and $300 is my minimum expected payout (and I don't bet $60 to get $300, usually between $12 and $36 with a minimum expected payout of $300), or I pass the super.

The $1 Florida Derby super only paid something like $22 with straight chalk. I don't think the Preakness would pay so little but something to be cautious of. If it's AP/FL/DORT/whatever it conceivably might not pay more than $60. I will probably make that bet a few times but knowing my luck something goofy will happen.

[charm city whizz]

You went "1/ 234/234567/234567" with the favorite on top and almost every horse in order of public odds.

You have a solid chance at hitting should the result be logical, however, you don't have any value built into your ticket.

It's a good ticket for trying to 'have' the super, but it's a long-term losing proposition.

If AP wins and the other choices comes 2nd would you get back more then the 180 you get back with the 100 win?

That saying AP is 4/5 which I can't see anything but 4/5, nothing higher nothing lower

[Robert Fischer]

If AP wins and the other choices comes 2nd would you get back more then the 180 you get back with the 100 win?

That saying AP is 4/5 which I can't see anything but 4/5, nothing higher nothing lower
good point

Super could be real low if Firing Line / Dortmund fill out the ticket.

[boys at tosconova]

i just can't see FL worse than 3rd here.

he should be your key under AP for 2nd/3rd in the super

no need to diminish your returns w/ a 60 bet

[Rex Phinney]

I think this is a great race to throw a few bucks on exactas featuring Dortmund and Firing Line on top.

Throw those two on the top and pick 4 or 5 you really like for second (including AP) and let it rip. I'm just a little too unsure of AP to throw together a super ticket with him the only horse on top.

[OCF]

There is only one guaranteed thing about the superfecta: You will never make a profit betting it if your opinion in the win and place slots does not deviate from the opinion of the general public's.

That's an interesting rule of thumb - do you have similar rules for the other verticals?

[raybo]

That's an interesting rule of thumb - do you have similar rules for the other verticals?

An obvious rule is, if the favorite is not on your ticket at all, bet it no matter what! :lol:

[boys at tosconova]

I think this is a great race to throw a few bucks on exactas featuring Dortmund and Firing Line on top.

Throw those two on the top and pick 4 or 5 you really like for second (including AP) and let it rip. I'm just a little too unsure of AP to throw together a super ticket with him the only horse on top.

dortmund doesn't deserve to be put on top of anything. he was lucky to get 3rd in the derby and you can't rule out an off the board finish here.

FL seems like he's the only one that might do it..and i still have my doubts that he can do it. but it does seem like he can take another step forward

[raybo]

dortmund doesn't deserve to be put on top of anything. he was lucky to get 3rd in the derby and you can't rule out an off the board finish here.

FL seems like he's the only one that might do it..and i still have my doubts that he can do it. but it does seem like he can take another step forward

I guess we'll see if your 'opinion' is worth anything on Saturday, even though you didn't state it as opinion, but as 'fact'.

[Rex Phinney]

dortmund doesn't deserve to be put on top of anything. he was lucky to get 3rd in the derby and you can't rule out an off the board finish here.

FL seems like he's the only one that might do it..and i still have my doubts that he can do it. but it does seem like he can take another step forward

LOL ok man whatever you say.

This one loves the front end, heading to a track that always likes speed.

AP looked nothing like Chrome in winning the derby. At some point people have to be realistic that AP has a pretty good chance of coming up short after all he had todo to win at Churchill. That was no walk in the park.

Dortmund and Firing line are both good enough to beat AP. they remind me of Shackleford and Oxbow. Just need the right trip on the right day.

[boys at tosconova]

I guess we'll see if your 'opinion' is worth anything on Saturday, even though you didn't state it as opinion, but as 'fact'.

i don't even understand what this means. if you think dortmund is deserving on being put on top be my guest.

[raybo]

i don't even understand what this means. if you think dortmund is deserving on being put on top be my guest.

Hmmm - I thought I was quite understandable. You stated, as fact, that Dortmund has no chance of rebounding from a very non-typical finish in the Derby. You mean, as fact, that nothing except a poor performance can happen with Dortmund. You mean, as fact, that his Derby race signals that he is declining in form. And, you mean, in fact, that he was just lucky to get 3rd in the Derby.

In my opinion, Dortmund ran a very "atypical" stretch run, and possibly could have been the victim of a dead or deep rail path. In my opinion, there is a good chance that he reverses things on the Preakness surface, and at the 1/16th mile shorter distance. In my opinion, both AP and Firing Line could very well have exerted excessive energy in that stretch run and the battle to the wire, and could both show it in the Preakness only 2 weeks later.

And, the most important thing, IMO, is that the odds on Dortmund will be much better than AP or Firing Line. How often will you get those kinds of odds on a horse as talented as Dortmund?

[boys at tosconova]

Hmmm - I thought I was quite understandable. You stated, as fact, that Dortmund has no chance of rebounding from a very non-typical finish in the Derby. You mean, as fact, that nothing except a poor performance can happen with Dortmund. You mean, as fact, that his Derby race signals that he is declining in form. And, you mean, in fact, that he was just lucky to get 3rd in the Derby.

In my opinion, Dortmund ran a very "atypical" stretch run, and possibly could have been the victim of a dead or deep rail path. In my opinion, there is a good chance that he reverses things on the Preakness surface, and at the 1/16th mile shorter distance. In my opinion, both AP and Firing Line could very well have exerted excessive energy in that stretch run and the battle to the wire, and could both show it in the Preakness only 2 weeks later.

And, the most important thing, IMO, is that the odds on Dortmund will be much better than AP or Firing Line. How often will you get those kinds of odds on a horse as talented as Dortmund?

i don't believe there is good chance of dortmund reversing anything and winning this race

he was pretty soundly beaten by the top 2 and both materality and frosted didn't have the best trips..if they did, they would have caught dorts as well.

it's more likely he runs worse than better

[thaskalos]

i don't believe there is good chance of dortmund reversing anything and winning this race

he was pretty soundly beaten by the top 2 and both materality and frosted didn't have the best trips..if they did, they would have caught dorts as well.

it's more likely he runs worse than better
If the horse's last race told the entire story...then I would agree with your assessment. But the game is a lot more complicated than that...

[boys at tosconova]

If the horse's last race told the entire story...then I would agree with your assessment. But the game is a lot more complicated than that...


i'll give you that. but the horse had little excuse to run the way he did. he has to be knocked because of it.

set modest pace,
beaten easily by top 2
lucky to get third



considering all that, the preakness doesn't scream win/rebound for him...

if interested parties feel the shorter distance will help him, they should not dismiss that it will help AP and FL as well..

[thaskalos]

i'll give you that. but the horse had little excuse to run the way he did. he has to be knocked because of it.

set modest pace,
beaten easily by top 2
lucky to get third



considering all that, the preakness doesn't scream win/rebound for him...

if interested parties feel the shorter distance will help him, they should not dismiss that it will help AP and FL as well..
The shorter distance of the Preakness works to the advantage of all three of the main contenders, that's true...but there might be a reason to expect Dortmund to rebound with a better effort in the Preakness. Undefeated horses often bounce back with a better effort after suffering their lone defeat. A horse is allowed a misstep somewhere down the line...no?

[Sunday Silence]

The shorter distance of the Preakness works to the advantage of all three of the main contenders, that's true...but there might be a reason to expect Dortmund to rebound with a better effort in the Preakness. Undefeated horses often bounce back with a better effort after suffering their lone defeat. A horse is allowed a misstep somewhere down the line...no?
I agree with Toscanova on this one. Dortmund had no excuse. I don't buy the dead rail. One more jump and Frosted gets him too, with Dort off the board. I don't like horses getting passed in the Derby coming back. It's not as if he had any trouble. I guess the colic is an angle if you like him, but there is no doubt he's going to get hooked by Firing Line and AP at the top of the lane. I think he fights but gives in again.

[thaskalos]

I agree with Toscanova on this one. Dortmund had no excuse. I don't buy the dead rail. One more jump and Frosted gets him too, with Dort off the board. I don't like horses getting passed in the Derby coming back. It's not as if he had any trouble. I guess the colic is an angle if you like him, but there is no doubt he's going to get hooked by Firing Line and AP at the top of the lane. I think he fights but gives in again.
You may not like to see horses getting passed in the Derby...but you won't see many winning the Derby wire-to-wire either. Being on the lead in the Derby isn't exactly an advantageous place to be, even when the pace is modest...unless the pace-setter is one of those "special" horses. I don't think Dortmund will win the Preakness...but I think he'll run a better race than he did in the Derby.

[Rex Phinney]

I agree with Toscanova on this one. Dortmund had no excuse. I don't buy the dead rail. One more jump and Frosted gets him too, with Dort off the board. I don't like horses getting passed in the Derby coming back. It's not as if he had any trouble. I guess the colic is an angle if you like him, but there is no doubt he's going to get hooked by Firing Line and AP at the top of the lane. I think he fights but gives in again.

Like he did the first two times Firing Line came for him? LOL

You guys are putting too much weight in the Derby. It's not the only race in the galaxy. And since when does the horse who sets the pace get knocked so hard? He did all the heavy lifting and still hit the board, I like that.

[thaskalos]

That's an interesting rule of thumb - do you have similar rules for the other verticals?

Yes. :)

[Rex Phinney]

i'll give you that. but the horse had little excuse to run the way he did. he has to be knocked because of it.

set modest pace,
beaten easily by top 2
lucky to get third



considering all that, the preakness doesn't scream win/rebound for him...

if interested parties feel the shorter distance will help him, they should not dismiss that it will help AP and FL as well..

Where are you getting this "lucky to get third" BS?????

Frosted passed him and he re rallied to get back in front of Frosted.

He wasn't "lucky" to set the pace and still beat 15 horses on Derby Day.

I can't remember the last time I heard so many people naive to the fact that horse races are not carbon copies of each other. Different tracks, different pace scenarios mean different outcomes.

[raybo]

Where are you getting this "lucky to get third" BS?????

Frosted passed him and he re rallied to get back in front of Frosted.

He wasn't "lucky" to set the pace and still beat 15 horses on Derby Day.

I can't remember the last time I heard so many people naive to the fact that horse races are not carbon copies of each other. Different tracks, different pace scenarios mean different outcomes.

Yup, and after looking at the horses in the Preakness field so far, the Brisnet running styles and Quirin points assignments put the Pace Pressure Gauge at 44 x 0. That's a huge pressure number! No E horses and only one S horse, the rest are all E/P horses. Anything, literally anything, can happen in this race!!

We could have a blistering pace 45/1:09, or we could have everyone laying together and running 48/1:13, or we could have anything in between.

[Robert Fischer]

These are good horses.

Dortmund controlled a moderate pace, but Stevens went for the win there approaching the turn.

American Pharaoh and Espinoza had to go then also, and match strides with a horse(Firing Line) he felt he could go with and out-grind.

That isn't easy, deep rail or not, to have 2 big contenders take your lead like that approaching the turn. If Dortmund has any weakness, it's maybe that his cruising speed on the backstretch can be on the slow side for a Graded pace-setter.

I don't know what Dortmund can do differently, but he ran a good race. Firing Line deserves credit for recency, but there's no guarantee about that matchup in Baltimore. That was a hard drive for Firing Line. His footwork wasn't as solid as in other races, but it was a big performance. He has room to improve if he bounces back, or he could have left his race in Kentucky....

[raybo]

These are good horses.

Dortmund controlled a moderate pace, but Stevens went for the win there approaching the turn.

American Pharaoh and Espinoza had to go then also, and match strides with a horse(Firing Line) he felt he could go with and out-grind.

That isn't easy, deep rail or not, to have 2 big contenders take your lead like that approaching the turn. If Dortmund has any weakness, it's maybe that his cruising speed on the backstretch can be on the slow side for a Graded pace-setter.

I don't know what Dortmund can do differently, but he ran a good race. Firing Line deserves credit for recency, but there's no guarantee about that matchup in Baltimore. That was a hard drive for Firing Line. His footwork wasn't as solid as in other races, but it was a big performance. He has room to improve if he bounces back, or he could have left his race in Kentucky....

Yeah, lots of "ifs" and "maybes" in this one. All 3 could fight it out again, or they could all lay back and let the other E/Ps fight it out early, or one of the 3 might have actually gotten some further conditioning from the Derby and take off out of the gate or come on like a locomotive in the stretch, etc.. I wouldn't even attempt to project the early running in this race!

[minethatbird08]

Where are you getting this "lucky to get third" BS?????

Frosted passed him and he re rallied to get back in front of Frosted.

He wasn't "lucky" to set the pace and still beat 15 horses on Derby Day.

I can't remember the last time I heard so many people naive to the fact that horse races are not carbon copies of each other. Different tracks, different pace scenarios mean different outcomes.

Frosted never passed Dortmund. Not sure where this re rally theory started.

[horses4courses]

It's going to be very hard to make money in the Preakness.
Only seven runners going to post.

http://www.drf.com/news/preview/materiality-skip-preakness

[minethatbird08]

It's going to be very hard to make money in the Preakness.
Only seven runners going to post.

http://www.drf.com/news/preview/materiality-skip-preakness

The Belmont for Materiality is the correct choice. Agree this race looks like a total pass. I will give Divining Rod a chance to hit the board but he is a good step below any of the top 3.

[Rex Phinney]

Frosted never passed Dortmund. Not sure where this re rally theory started.

Skip to 12:43 on the video and watch. At the wire Dortmund is actually running stronger than Frosted and FL.

You can also watch what happens to Carpe Diem, another horse in the 1 path the entire race, he tires like a quarter horse.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iV8aA2A34Rw

[minethatbird08]

Skip to 12:43 on the video and watch. At the wire Dortmund is actually running stronger than Frosted and FL.

You can also watch what happens to Carpe Diem, another horse in the 1 path the entire race, he tires like a quarter horse.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iV8aA2A34Rw

At 12:43 Frosted is about 4 or 5 lengths behind Dortmund. Now at about 13:02 mark Dortmund passes him again but they are already well past the finish line. So I still don't see any "re rally for 3rd place."

[Robert Fischer]

public's pyramid

1st/2nd,3rd/2nd,3rd,4th,5th,6th,7th/2nd,3rd,4th,5th,6th,7th

Pharaoh/Firing,Dort/Firing,Dort,Danzig,Divining,Verve,Bhodisatva/Firing,Dort,Danzig,Divining,Verve,Bhodisatva


finding value
1. Use a longer shot 2nd
1st/4th/2nd,3rd/2nd,3rd,4th,5th,6th,7th

Pharaoh/Danzig/Firing,Dort/Firing,Dort,Divining,Verve,Bhodisatva


2. reverse the pyramid

example:
1st/2nd,3rd/2nd,3rd,4th,5th,6th,7th/6th
Pharaoh/Firing,Dort/Firing,Dort,Danzig,Verve,Bhodisatva/Divining

3. combine both
1st/6th/2nd,3rd/4th
Pharaoh/Danzig/Firing,Dort/Divining

so now we've got a cheap superfecta (what does this cost $2 for a $1 wager?), and we've got a horse 2nd that isn't impossible, that will be off many of the fan's tix, and we've singled a logical horse 4th where the public will have used 6 horses.

We can spend $60 bucks on this and if it hits (and it may pay around $70 or so) we'd have it 30 times.


Just an example.

[zico20]

I agree with Toscanova on this one. Dortmund had no excuse. I don't buy the dead rail. One more jump and Frosted gets him too, with Dort off the board. I don't like horses getting passed in the Derby coming back. It's not as if he had any trouble. I guess the colic is an angle if you like him, but there is no doubt he's going to get hooked by Firing Line and AP at the top of the lane. I think he fights but gives in again.

Dortmunds excuse WAS being on the lead. Dortmund, IMO, is a much, much better horse when he has a target in front of him. The way the Preakness is shaping up, Dortmund should sit just off of Firing Line on the outside. He will beat Firing Line with this tactic. Leading wire to to wire in the Derby is hard enough, especially when that is not the preferred running style.

[zico20]

It's going to be very hard to make money in the Preakness.
Only seven runners going to post.

http://www.drf.com/news/preview/materiality-skip-preakness

I guess it depends what you mean by making money. I assume you thought the same way on the SA Derby. There, you had an easy winner in Dortmund and only three other horses with any ability. The super came back 52 dollars. Not bad at all. For all the people on this board that play the super 3x4x5x6, or something like that, yes there is no money to be made. However, if someone has a strong opinion on how the top three will finish, there is a ton of money to be made if you got enough to bet. Not to mention if you can get the 4th horse behind the big three, then you can make thousands off the Preakness.

[davew]

gl nads

when I do bets like that, I usually get back between $45 and $60 when I cash. I have done better just betting the $60 show - we will see in 4 days.

[jtschmidt]

Is there no super hi-5 this year? I do not see it listed. If they did away with it I am guessing due to small field.

[thespaah]

With the three top horses and with AP going to be on almost every vertical ticket, there not much value there. I think P3 and P4 are the way to go.

[nads1420]

With the three top horses and with AP going to be on almost every vertical ticket, there not much value there. I think P3 and P4 are the way to go.


yeah ur right and those races have large fields... thats were the money is at

[davew]

gl nads

when I do bets like that, I usually get back between $45 and $60 when I cash. I have done better just betting the $60 show - we will see in 4 days.


I stuck too much in the pick4 and missed 3rd leg, should have just put it all to show :eek:

did you get the super? paid well $1906.90 /$

[raybo]

I stuck too much in the pick4 and missed 3rd leg, should have just put it all to show :eek:

did you get the super? paid well $1906.90 /$

Yes, the super paid well, as it should with the 2nd and 3rd horses that were in it. Firing Line not being in the super caused lots of people to miss it also.