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View Full Version : Who will beat Palace Malice tomorrow?


letswastemoney
05-09-2015, 10:45 PM
My initial thought is Stallwalkin Dude. Your thoughts?

Some_One
05-09-2015, 10:50 PM
For a sprint race, a lot of horses that prefer to be in the rear half early, :1: might be able to steal it early.

Lemon Drop Husker
05-09-2015, 11:37 PM
Sprint specialists, and solid sprinters, in Palace and Clearly Now have the advantage over PM.

PM is coming back from a long layoff in a race distance he simply isn't built to run all that well and hasn't ran since being a Maiden 3 years ago.

Would be extremely impressive if PM could put away Palace and Clearly Now at their specialty coming back from such a layoff.

Interesting race for PM to be in, but I'm sure it is more calendar related than anything after the scratch in the Westchester. He has to get something in before the Met Mile.

MJC922
05-10-2015, 07:46 AM
IMO edge goes to Palace (without the malice) he has the race under his belt after the freshening and a couple of Grade I caliber numbers at 6f prior to that.

davew
05-10-2015, 11:09 AM
Winning this would not seem to a main goal

Palace Malice has tons of back class at more distance
looks to me like a tightener for something bigger


the rest of the field has a few that could beat him

a possible bridgejumper gone bad race

DeltaLover
05-10-2015, 11:23 AM
My initial thought is Stallwalkin Dude. Your thoughts?

I do not know if he is going to beat him, but based on my automated models, :3: Palace is clearly the overlay in this race and the one where my money is going to be...

bello
05-10-2015, 01:09 PM
Palace scratched

Ocala Mike
05-10-2015, 02:01 PM
:7: :4: :5:

DOUBLEDOWN AGAIN the value play in gimmicks and, possibly, on top.

raybo
05-10-2015, 03:09 PM
With 1,2, and 6 scratched, here are my top 3 (PM is ranked 4th):

7 CLEARLY NOW (P 1) -------------577.2
1A STALLWALKIN' DUDE (S 2)----562.7
4 DOUBLEDOWN AGAIN (P 0)----557.4

raybo
05-10-2015, 03:33 PM
Ignore the previous post, the 2 is not scratched. The reason PM ranked so low in that one is that he has no sprint races in his last 10 PPs, so I had no qualified velocities to use for him. If I use figures instead, and with 1,3 and 6 scratched, the rankings are:

5 PALACE MALICE (P 1)---384.1
7 CLEARLY NOW (P 1)-----356.1
2 PIQUANT (P 5)-----------347.2

Note: These rankings are not from the regular Black Box program rankings, but something else I am working on with user weighted factors.

PM is in this race for conditioning, so I have doubts that he will run hard if he needs to.

lamboguy
05-10-2015, 04:08 PM
PALACE MALACE was scratched from the Westchester because of a stone bruise.

i am sure his foot is ok today

Robert Fischer
05-10-2015, 04:14 PM
My initial thought is Stallwalkin Dude. Your thoughts?
I don't know.

Palace Malice will win unless he has declined. I don't know Palace Malice's current form.

Piquant is the best of the rest.
Doubledown Again and Stalwalking Dude are fairly close after that. Stallwalkin Dude is a better horse, but he lacks tactical speed and is going to depend upon the pace collapsing. Stallwalkin Dude will need Brian Lynch and Javier Castellano to really force the issue with Clearly Now trying to be the unexpected pace. I don't see that happening.

Horses like Piquant and DoubleDown Again will probably set a moderate pace(because they aren't all-out speed, and because they know Johnny V is sitting on a Heavy Favorite) and that will only play to the favor of Palace Malice who will blow them away when the time is right if he is the same horse.

raybo
05-10-2015, 04:22 PM
I don't know.

Palace Malice will win unless he has declined. I don't know Palace Malice's current form.



Neither does anyone else, regarding racing condition. His trainer may say he's ready to race, but even he doesn't know for sure, until he races.

If he doesn't get the race given to him, he may well need this race, and maybe another one, before he gets back to the horse we all knew, if he ever does.

Robert Fischer
05-10-2015, 04:25 PM
Neither does anyone else, regarding racing condition. His trainer may say he's ready to race, but even he doesn't know for sure, until he races.

If he doesn't get the race given to him, he may well need this race, and maybe another one, before he gets back to the horse we all knew, if he ever does.

yea, and anecdotally, Pletcher seems to have a mixed bag with his 'brilliant' returnees.

Guys who have blazed amazing pace figures and flashy moves, haven't always come back from layoffs the same.

Tough to know.

In such a scenario, I think Piquant is a nice ml price considering he's my 2nd ranked horse in here, and Double Down Again is my alternative.

Robert Fischer
05-10-2015, 04:27 PM
did a small double upgrade w/ piquant

raybo
05-10-2015, 04:31 PM
yea, and anecdotally, Pletcher seems to have a mixed bag with his 'brilliant' returnees.

Guys who have blazed amazing pace figures and flashy moves, haven't always come back from layoffs the same.

Tough to know.

In such a scenario, I think Piquant is a nice ml price considering he's my 2nd ranked horse in here, and Double Down Again is my alternative.

LOL- morning line prices mean nothing when 3 of the 8 horses scratch. :lol:

letswastemoney
05-10-2015, 04:33 PM
Pletcher is big with 2nd time off the layoff horses.

I think Palace Malice could lose, but I'm not too confident in the other horses the more I think about it.

raybo
05-10-2015, 04:36 PM
Pletcher is big with 2nd time off the layoff horses.

I think Palace Malice could lose, but I'm not too confident in the other horses the more I think about it.

It's not a race I would bet into, that's for sure. And, the Black Box pass/play notifications say "PASS!!.

Robert Fischer
05-10-2015, 04:42 PM
LOL- morning line prices mean nothing when 3 of the 8 horses scratch. :lol:

luckily Piquant is still 11-1 in the early betting

more importantly Clearly Now is a big enough underlay (currently 3-2)

Clearly Now is a talented(although declining) runner with major fundamental flaws. He is an easy toss, and that makes intra-race wagers much easier, even when using Palace Malice.

(You don't have to single Piquant , you can use 3 horses with Palace Malice and without PM, due to the public's mistake w/ clearly now)

raybo
05-10-2015, 04:49 PM
luckily Piquant is still 11-1 in the early betting

more importantly Clearly Now is a big enough underlay (currently 3-2)

Clearly Now is a talented(although declining) runner with major fundamental flaws. He is an easy toss, and that makes intra-race wagers much easier, even when using Palace Malice.

(You don't have to single Piquant , you can use 3 horses with Palace Malice and without PM, due to the public's mistake w/ clearly now)

Piquant is so out classed here, I would give him little chance to win.

Robert Fischer
05-10-2015, 04:52 PM
Seeing the physical condition of All Included in the 7th race for Pletcher, and seeing Palace Malice look pretty good here in the parade, is another minor 'plus' in favor of Palace Malice here.

Lemon Drop Husker
05-10-2015, 04:56 PM
Piquant is so out classed here, I would give him little chance to win.

Agree. Could have bought him for $16K just 6 months ago.

He is on the roll of his life, but this is much deeper waters than he has ever faced before.

:4: is about the only thing I see as playable in here.

Robert Fischer
05-10-2015, 04:57 PM
$1 exacta :5: /:1::2::4:
$1 exacta :5: /:2::4:

my $5 action bet here

Robert Fischer
05-10-2015, 05:03 PM
That result was actually pretty good for players going forward, and much better than if Palace Malice had won(although as a fan, it would have been fun to see).

Namely, Clearly Now will continue to take money next time. Would have preferred he had won, but good nonetheless.

Palace Malice appears that his brilliant days are over. He still had some nice races in his career.

Cool ride by Angel Cruz there, who siezed the moment as an unexpected pace factor. Props to Angel or David, if either of them planned that move.

And we should give some credit to the thread-starter for getting it right.
My initial thought is Stallwalkin Dude. Your thoughts?
nice call.:ThmbUp:

raybo
05-10-2015, 05:10 PM
Yeah, PM wasn't going to extend himself severely in this one. Stallwalkin ran a nice final 1/16th, jockey left handing it to keep Clearly Now from pushing him towards the rail. Piquant was out of it before the 2nd call.

Lemon Drop Husker
05-10-2015, 05:11 PM
Palace Malice appears that his brilliant days are over. He still had some nice races in his career.

Is that really what you got out of a 6F race for a horse coming back off of a 9 month layoff running a distance that is completely against his nature?

The Met Mile (if he runs), will be a better gauge of where Palace Malice is at, and even then it may be his 3rd race back before we really know if he will ever be the same.

He is a bet against till he proves himself, but I'm certainly not counting him out of being a major player in Graded Stakes races down the line again. He has certainly ran worse races than what we saw today.

raybo
05-10-2015, 05:15 PM
That result was actually pretty good for players going forward, and much better than if Palace Malice had won(although as a fan, it would have been fun to see).

Namely, Clearly Now will continue to take money next time. Would have preferred he had won, but good nonetheless.

Palace Malice appears that his brilliant days are over. He still had some nice races in his career.

Cool ride by Angel Cruz there, who siezed the moment as an unexpected pace factor. Props to Angel or David, if either of them planned that move.

And we should give some credit to the thread-starter for getting it right.

nice call.:ThmbUp:

Yeah, if I had used the Black Box, the only way I would have bet the race was using the FVIV picks (the race was an "Alt. >> FVIV" notification) which had them ranked 7, 1A, 4, 2 (no velocities on Palice Malice so he didn't appear in those rankings).

horses4courses
05-10-2015, 05:15 PM
Palace Malice ran just fine today.
6 furlongs is a quarter mile short of his minimum trip.
This race was a tune up, and it wasn't logical to expect him to win.
Surprising he was odds on, and he was a classic bet against.

His best days may well be behind him,
but today's race gives no indication of that.

raybo
05-10-2015, 05:17 PM
Is that really what you got out of a 6F race for a horse coming back off of a 9 month layoff running a distance that is completely against his nature?

The Met Mile (if he runs), will be a better gauge of where Palace Malice is at, and even then it may be his 3rd race back before we really know if he will ever be the same.

He is a bet against till he proves himself, but I'm certainly not counting him out of being a major player in Graded Stakes races down the line again. He has certainly ran worse races than what we saw today.

I agree, PM was in this race strictly for a conditioner, I read somewhere (Bloodhorse?) that his trainer said he wouldn't be going all out in this one.

raybo
05-10-2015, 05:20 PM
Palace Malice ran just fine today.
6 furlongs is a quarter mile short of his minimum trip.
This race was a tune up, and it wasn't logical to expect him to win.
Surprising he was odds on, and he was a classic bet against.

His best days may well be behind him,
but today's race gives no indication of that.

He was low odds because he was the class in the race, and because lots of people love him and bet with their hearts instead of their brains. Lots of not so smart money bet on him today.

I expect a better performance from him next time, but he still may never come back to what he once was.

When you run a multiple graded stakes horse in a $100K non-graded race, the horse is not expected to be at his best. That seems pretty obvious to me.

Kash$
05-10-2015, 05:31 PM
Even morning on a horse who should be retire.

raybo
05-10-2015, 05:34 PM
Even morning on a horse who should be retire.

I wouldn't go that far, this was just a workout for him. He still has enough to win some races down the road. There was little if any whipping going on by his jockey down the stretch.

horses4courses
05-10-2015, 05:47 PM
Palace Malice can still run well.
Well enough to win top class G1 races again?
Maybe not.

The connections won't overdo it with him.
If he continues to improve at home, we'll see him again.

DRF Mike Watchmaker wasn't impressed.

Mike Watchmaker ‏@DRFWatchmaker 42m42 minutes ago
Tough to be enthusiastic about Palace Malice's comeback. Also tough to give Clearly Now more chances after losing when he should have won.

horses4courses
05-10-2015, 06:04 PM
.Matt Shifman ‏@AndyScoggin 5m5 minutes ago
Todd Pletcher on Palace Malice return,"He galloped out well, so hopefully we got what we needed out of him. Hopefully it moves him forward."

Robert Fischer
05-10-2015, 06:14 PM
When a horse like Palace Malice for a trainer like Todd Pletcher
has a bad performance,
and then retires,
and then un-retires,
is gone for 9 months and
then gets entered on May 2nd in a $150K Stakes going a Mile
, then gets scratched out of that comeback stakes,
and is entered back into a 6f 100K stakes the next weekend,


\ I tend to expect to see some flashes of former brilliance if in fact he still possesses any graded ability.

Some of you guys paint this situation as if it were a Bart Cummings Australian turf horse using races under a hammerlock to train for the Melbourne Cup...

He got to run today. He didn't show anything relating to a 2014 Palace Malice.

Maybe you guys could show us some more specific formulator type of stats that hint a race-in-shape philosophy, but I'm seeing 26%WIN and 56%ITM for Pletcher 90+days away.

The chances of him making any future impact in legit stakes races are very low at this point.

MJC922
05-10-2015, 06:17 PM
My initial thought is Stallwalkin Dude. Your thoughts?

Nice pick BTW. Good example of a horse at its peak getting it done against what were grade one caliber horses trying to pull themselves back together again. I was pretty strong on the 3 but when he scratched out I went a little fishing for the 4.

horses4courses
05-10-2015, 06:33 PM
When a horse like Palace Malice for a trainer like Todd Pletcher
has a bad performance,
and then retires,
and then un-retires,
is gone for 9 months and
then gets entered on May 2nd in a $150K Stakes going a Mile
, then gets scratched out of that comeback stakes,
and is entered back into a 6f 100K stakes the next weekend,


\ I tend to expect to see some flashes of former brilliance if in fact he still possesses any graded ability.

Some of you guys paint this situation as if it were a Bart Cummings Australian turf horse using races under a hammerlock to train for the Melbourne Cup...

He got to run today. He didn't show anything relating to a 2014 Palace Malice.

Maybe you guys could show us some more specific formulator type of stats that hint a race-in-shape philosophy, but I'm seeing 26%WIN and 56%ITM for Pletcher 90+days away.

The chances of him making any future impact in legit stakes races are very low at this point.

A middle distance horse against some pretty good sprinters
running at 6 furlongs, and after a lengthy layoff?

Forget the trainer's stats with layoff horses.
They mean little in a situation like this.
That's because this race is not a primary target.

I just don't see how you could expect a winning performance today.
I'd have been surprised had he won.

Nearly pulled the trigger on Clearly Now at 2-1.
Figured his chances of a win were more than 40%.
Glad I stayed away.

You could be right about him not being the same horse as before.
We'll have to wait and see.

Stillriledup
05-10-2015, 10:36 PM
Maybe they should have listed "not trying" in the program as an "equipment change"?

Love to hear the connections happy after the race that the horse lost since winning wasn't really a priority. Im sure the people who bet on him are happy he galloped out well.

SandyW
05-10-2015, 10:47 PM
Matt Shifman ‏@AndyScoggin 5m5 minutes ago
Todd Pletcher on Palace Malice return,"He galloped out well, so hopefully we got what we needed out of him. Hopefully it moves him forward."

When a trainer makes a statement like this after his horse burned up the publics money he shound be fined the amount of money in the pools that went into the toilet.

horses4courses
05-10-2015, 10:53 PM
Maybe they should have listed "not trying" in the program as an "equipment change"?

Love to hear the connections happy after the race that the horse lost since winning wasn't really a priority. Im sure the people who bet on him are happy he galloped out well.

The way I grew up handicapping,
if you assume that every horse in the race is trying,
you're behind the eight ball before you even start.

Granted, it's the norm that every horse entered is out to win.
However, that's just not real life.
Especially with horses recovering from injury,
and/or with bigger targets down the road that they are prepping for.

Learned this early on, and it stuck with me.
I don't get upset, or shocked, when it happens.
Just look for betting opportunities to profit from it.

Like anything else, sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't.
Just try to make the ups bigger than the downs.

horses4courses
05-10-2015, 11:03 PM
[/b]When a trainer makes a statement like this after his horse burned up the publics money he shound be fined the amount of money in the pools that went into the toilet.

I would argue that the money "the public" lost on Palace Malice today,
at odds on, under those conditions, would have been lost pretty quickly
on any other race of their choice.

I have no sympathy for these bettors' losses,
and my only regret is that I didn't get any of it.

Like missing a fish at a poker table......

raybo
05-10-2015, 11:21 PM
If you didn't see this race as a conditioning race, beforehand, IMO you have no one to blame but yourself. No multiple graded stakes horse is going to bust his butt to win a non-graded $100k race. This was just the first race in a race conditioning cycle for him. It appeared rather black and white to me, he would only win if the race was presented to him on a silver platter.

SandyW
05-10-2015, 11:29 PM
I would argue that the money "the public" lost on Palace Malice today,
at odds on, under those conditions, would have been lost pretty quickly
on any other race of their choice.

I have no sympathy for these bettors' losses,
and my only regret is that I didn't get any of it.

Like missing a fish at a poker table......

Don't brag about it, that is what I mean. Let TP keep his mouth shut and not rub salt into the wounds of the suckers that bet their money on a horse that was not trying.

Stillriledup
05-10-2015, 11:30 PM
The way I grew up handicapping,
if you assume that every horse in the race is trying,
you're behind the eight ball before you even start.

Granted, it's the norm that every horse entered is out to win.
However, that's just not real life.
Especially with horses recovering from injury,
and/or with bigger targets down the road that they are prepping for.

Learned this early on, and it stuck with me.
I don't get upset, or shocked, when it happens.
Just look for betting opportunities to profit from it.

Like anything else, sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't.
Just try to make the ups bigger than the downs.

No doubt, part of handicapping is determining who's not trying.

horses4courses
05-10-2015, 11:35 PM
Don't brag about it, that is what I mean. Let TP keep his mouth shut and not rub salt into the wounds of the suckers that bet their money on a horse that was not trying.

Was he bragging?
I didn't catch that.
I simply see it as stating facts.

The horse had never even run at 6 furlongs before.
He wasn't stiffed, just caught a pretty salty bunch for a winning comeback.

Stillriledup
05-11-2015, 02:40 AM
Was he bragging?
I didn't catch that.
I simply see it as stating facts.

The horse had never even run at 6 furlongs before.
He wasn't stiffed, just caught a pretty salty bunch for a winning comeback.

He said "We got what we needed" and i'm pretty sure the people who bet him to win didn't get what THEY needed.

biggestal99
05-11-2015, 06:13 AM
Matt Shifman ‏@AndyScoggin 5m5 minutes ago
Todd Pletcher on Palace Malice return,"He galloped out well, so hopefully we got what we needed out of him. Hopefully it moves him forward."

When a trainer makes a statement like this after his horse burned up the publics money he shound be fined the amount of money in the pools that went into the toilet.

Lol, it was all out there to see before the race. It doesn.t take a mind reader to know this wasn,t the race to bet him at short odds, if we had the exchange, he was a lay horse.

Allan

raybo
05-11-2015, 07:43 AM
I couldn't find the article I read a couple of days before the race, where his trainer said they would not be pushing him in the Diablo, but here's one that should have been enough evidence to NOT bet PM to win in that race, at anything near the odds being offered, and maybe not at any odds. If that's not enough, what can I say? Find something else to do with your entertainment money?

http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/zatt/Palace_Malice_returns_against_top_sprinters_123

It looks like the wait for the much anticipated return of Palace Malice is finally almost over. The Dogwood Stable star, who became the first horse to win both the Belmont Stakes and Met Mile in more than thirty years, was supposed to make his five-year-old debut in last Saturday's Westchester. But alas, that one was taken by another Belmont winner in Tonalist, as Palace Malice remained in his stall because of a bruised foot. Apparently the bruise was not bad. Only eight days removed from the missed appointment with Tonalist, Palace Malice is now scheduled to make his first start in better than nine months in Sunday's $100,000 Diablo Stakes at Belmont Park. Despite being respected as the 7-5 morning line favorite, the six furlong sprint is anything but an easy spot for the winner of more than $2.6 million.

In Sunday’s feature, which acts as little more than a prep for defense of his title in the $1.25 million Met Mile on Belmont Stakes Day, Palace Malice has found a pair of top notch sprinters in which to tangle in Palace and Clearly Now. Off the long layoff, and taking on a pair of salty sprinters, both making their second start of 2015, is bound to be a tricky assignment for the son of Curlin, but one, that on his best, he is good enough to handle. Don’t be too upset if he comes up short, though, as the next one is the one his connections really want to win.

"He's been good, we just had the one little hiccup where he unfortunately had a little foot issue when we were in the Westchester," said Palace Malice’s trainer, Todd Pletcher. "Fortunately, it was a temporary setback. We're in a race that's probably a little short of an ideal distance for him, but we're hoping to get a race in and move forward for the Met [Mile]."

Stillriledup
05-11-2015, 06:50 PM
I couldn't find the article I read a couple of days before the race, where his trainer said they would not be pushing him in the Diablo, but here's one that should have been enough evidence to NOT bet PM to win in that race, at anything near the odds being offered, and maybe not at any odds. If that's not enough, what can I say? Find something else to do with your entertainment money?

http://www.horseracingnation.com/blogs/zatt/Palace_Malice_returns_against_top_sprinters_123

Its not a handicapping situation, we all know that he might have "needed' the race and whatnut, the biggest question is whether or not connections should be obligated to have their horses 100 percent cranked to win, not "using" pari mutuel races as workouts.

horses4courses
05-11-2015, 07:36 PM
Its not a handicapping situation, we all know that he might have "needed' the race and whatnut, the biggest question is whether or not connections should be obligated to have their horses 100 percent cranked to win, not "using" pari mutuel races as workouts.

What's the favorites' win rate at SRU Downs, 70-80%?

I bet those losing chalks get a strong interrogation from the stewards, too. :eek:

raybo
05-11-2015, 08:50 PM
Its not a handicapping situation, we all know that he might have "needed' the race and whatnut, the biggest question is whether or not connections should be obligated to have their horses 100 percent cranked to win, not "using" pari mutuel races as workouts.

As I said, it's very tough after a layoff to know if a horse is ready to win, so races are frequently used as workouts, to get the feel of racing back. It's been that way forever, and is to be expected. The fact that he told us that before the race, is commendable, and should have been enough to inform any intelligent player to tread lightly on PM.

Relwob Owner
05-11-2015, 08:55 PM
He said "We got what we needed" and i'm pretty sure the people who bet him to win didn't get what THEY needed.


....and those people should have been smart enough to take into account they probably wouldn't be looking for his best effort and seized the betting opportunity. Quit whining.

Stillriledup
05-11-2015, 09:52 PM
What's the favorites' win rate at SRU Downs, 70-80%?

I bet those losing chalks get a strong interrogation from the stewards, too. :eek:

I don't know what the current rate of faves is at SRU but i'll tell you one thing, you get a good bang for your buck there, guys try all the time, winners get paid, there's no public workouts at my place :ThmbUp:

raybo
05-11-2015, 10:21 PM
I don't know what the current rate of faves is at SRU but i'll tell you one thing, you get a good bang for your buck there, guys try all the time, winners get paid, there's no public workouts at my place :ThmbUp:

Ok, I've held my tongue long enough, comments have been made regarding "SRU downs" for quite a while now, but I've yet to hear what it means, or what it is about (if anything). If it's some kind of inside joke that I'm unaware of I'd be pleased if someone would clarify for me. Not knowing something once in a while is fine, I can deal with that, but this thing has been going on for what seems like forever, and it's beginning to become aggravating.

horses4courses
05-11-2015, 10:46 PM
Ok, I've held my tongue long enough, comments have been made regarding "SRU downs" for quite a while now, but I've yet to hear what it means, or what it is about (if anything). If it's some kind of inside joke that I'm unaware of I'd be pleased if someone would clarify for me. Not knowing something once in a while is fine, I can deal with that, but this thing has been going on for what seems like forever, and it's beginning to become aggravating.

It was a concept started by SRU, raybo.
It is his version of the "utopia of race tracks".

In a perfect horse racing world, run primarily by bettors,
SRU tells us what it would be like at his place.

Just a bit of fun, and pure fiction :lol:

Stillriledup
05-11-2015, 11:00 PM
It was a concept started by SRU, raybo.
It is his version of the "utopia of race tracks".

In a perfect horse racing world, run primarily by bettors,
SRU tells us what it would be like at his place.

Just a bit of fun, and pure fiction :lol:

This is right. I don't know if i started it or not, i would refer to SRU downs in some posts and others ran with it. Its the utopia of tracks, no cheating, low takeouts, Jocks riding hard for minor board spots, winners get paid, etc.

raybo
05-11-2015, 11:02 PM
This is right. I don't know if i started it or not, i would refer to SRU downs in some posts and others ran with it. Its the utopia of tracks, no cheating, low takeouts, Jocks riding hard for minor board spots, winners get paid, etc.

LOL - so it's pure fantasy. :bang:

Stillriledup
05-11-2015, 11:05 PM
LOL - so it's pure fantasy. :bang:

Yes, its a fantasy we all have....betting at a track that cares about the player.

Our motto is:

SRU Downs
Where WINNERS get PAID.

:ThmbUp:

raybo
05-11-2015, 11:08 PM
Yes, its a fantasy we all have....betting at a track that cares about the player.

Our motto is:

SRU Downs
Where WINNERS get PAID.

:ThmbUp:

Understand, and that would be nice, however, I prefer to live in the real world. :cool:

Relwob Owner
05-11-2015, 11:10 PM
LOL - so it's pure fantasy. :bang:


Its awful Raybo. Its all fantasy and includes outrageous and ingenuine opinions motivated not by genuine thoughts but about wanting and trying to get others to respond. Odds are is that next up is a "why are you picking one me?" post.

Stillriledup
05-11-2015, 11:24 PM
Its awful Raybo. Its all fantasy and includes outrageous and ingenuine opinions motivated not by genuine thoughts but about wanting and trying to get others to respond. Odds are is that next up is a "why are you picking one me?" post.

Why would i care if you or anyone else responds? I won't lose sleep if you don't respond.

biggestal99
05-12-2015, 05:52 AM
Its not a handicapping situation, we all know that he might have "needed' the race and whatnut, the biggest question is whether or not connections should be obligated to have their horses 100 percent cranked to win, not "using" pari mutuel races as workouts.

Of course its a handicapping question. Is this g1 winner cranked up enough to win at 6f at short odds off the layoff?

How many layoff horses need a race, do you think owners and trainers care about the betting public, they are concerned about thier horse, the betting public be damned..

The just the way it is. Only in fantasyland are horses fully cranked for a 6f listedrace off a layoff. when a mile g1 is THE race.

Allan

Stillriledup
05-12-2015, 05:57 AM
Of course its a handicapping question. Is this g1 winner cranked up enough to win at 6f at short odds off the layoff?

How many layoff horses need a race, do you think owners and trainers care about the betting public, they are concerned about thier horse, the betting public be damned..

The just the way it is. Only in fantasyland are horses fully cranked for a 6f listedrace off a layoff. when a mile g1 is THE race.

Allan

I agree, 'racing' doesn't care about the customer.

castaway01
05-12-2015, 07:56 AM
I agree, 'racing' doesn't care about the customer.

It happens in every sport...that's why there's a preseason, and exhibition games. Track and field athletes aren't fully cranked for the first race of the season either, or swimmers, or anyone...the one exception might be NASCAR, since the first race of the season is the Daytona 500, which is their biggest race. Then again, a car doesn't need to train itself up to a race.

And before you say "but what about the horseplayer!", there is wagering on most of the events I mentioned, and they all charge people a substantial amount to view them---much more than I imagine you wager on an average day.

I don't know why I'm arguing with a troll anyway. Wasting time trying to think of logical arguments is pointless. But I did it anyway.

rastajenk
05-12-2015, 08:02 AM
For many customers, that kind of thing is an important piece of the puzzle. But you would take that from them.

Some people prefer the New York Times Sunday crossword puzzle, but you would take that from them and give them the easy crossword found in most dailies.

Some prefer 1000-piece jigsaw puzzles, but you would take that from them and give them large pieces built for small hands, because you care about the customer.

Sound about right?

OTM Al
05-12-2015, 09:00 AM
I agree, 'racing' doesn't care about the customer.

Some day I will meet this "racing" person who doesn't care about anyone. However until I do, I will simply picture him as the scarecrow like straw man of weak argument and foolish rhetoric.

burnsy
05-12-2015, 09:06 AM
I agree, 'racing' doesn't care about the customer.

Racing has its problems but this is not one of them. Its up to the bettors to make the odds and its their job to handicap a race and to bet it accordingly. People constantly bet with their heart, or with the most popular horse. That is THEIR FAULT, not racings. If you can't figure out that this horse was hurt and coming off a layoff, racing at a shorter distance, a lower class to get into racing shape........and you take some ridiculous price.......its on you. I didn't bet Sunday because I had to see my mom but you can bet your bottom dollar that I would of bet against this horse, like the sharp people on this thread did. The "internet fantasy land" is a great thing for people that bet against underlays. Years ago horses ran more and losing was not a big deal, part of the handicapping process is figuring out motivation. Does a horse like Palace Malice really need to win a race like that? If you bet it like the answer was "yes"......you got what you deserved. Allen and the others are right on........and I'll add this: the difference between a "fan" and someone that actually takes the time to understand the reality of horse racing (betting all sports) gives you gems like this. You should know better, that's why races like this should be passed or you gotta bet against. People have this notion that the whales "know everything" and that regular people never bet foolishly.........they do it often enough to cash against them. Does the track have to post a disclaimer or something? Its gambling and HANDICAPPING SRU.

raybo
05-12-2015, 02:11 PM
I agree with all these responses to SRU's statements about PM, and "racing". A big part of handicapping is determining if a horse is in a 'conditioning' race or an 'earning' race. At least, that's what I call it. A 'conditioning' race is one in which the horse is not necessarily ready to win, because the trainer thinks he needs a race, or two, in order to perform at his best. An 'earning' race is one in which the trainer has pre-determined that the horse is ready to win, all needed conditioning has been obtained, in the trainer's mind.

This race was obviously a 'conditioning' race for PM, and that was obvious before the race was run. Those handicappers who saw that, probably did not bet on PM to win (or at least did not base their whole investment that way), those who did not see that, may have bet him to win and/or put him on top of their vertical bets. IMO, the "smart" money was not based on PM winning.

Even if the trainer had not said before the race (or if you did not read that before the race) that PM would not be pushed hard, proficient handicappers had plenty of data available to make that determination themselves: long layoff after an injury, entered in a short sprint race after having been successful in much longer races, and dropping from big dollar graded stakes races into a $100k non-grades stakes, etc..

arw629
05-12-2015, 03:50 PM
A few weeks ago I posted the 50 rules to handicapping horses in 2015 .....for those of you salty about Palace Malice this weekend you may want to review rule number 49.....http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=122239

btw not to brag but i had the winner in this race

Stillriledup
05-12-2015, 04:01 PM
It happens in every sport...that's why there's a preseason, and exhibition games. Track and field athletes aren't fully cranked for the first race of the season either, or swimmers, or anyone...the one exception might be NASCAR, since the first race of the season is the Daytona 500, which is their biggest race. Then again, a car doesn't need to train itself up to a race.

And before you say "but what about the horseplayer!", there is wagering on most of the events I mentioned, and they all charge people a substantial amount to view them---much more than I imagine you wager on an average day.

I don't know why I'm arguing with a troll anyway. Wasting time trying to think of logical arguments is pointless. But I did it anyway.

Cmon, get some new material already, this is 2015, not 1978.

People who are sitting at nascar events don't have money on the races, 90% of them are there for the "sport" in horse racing, most people who are at the venue have something "riding" on the race, its not the same at all.

Stillriledup
05-12-2015, 04:02 PM
Some day I will meet this "racing" person who doesn't care about anyone. However until I do, I will simply picture him as the scarecrow like straw man of weak argument and foolish rhetoric.

So i don't get it, you're saying racing DOES care about the customer?

Racing not caring about customers is a "Weak argument"?

Ok.

Stillriledup
05-12-2015, 04:07 PM
Racing has its problems but this is not one of them. Its up to the bettors to make the odds and its their job to handicap a race and to bet it accordingly. People constantly bet with their heart, or with the most popular horse. That is THEIR FAULT, not racings. If you can't figure out that this horse was hurt and coming off a layoff, racing at a shorter distance, a lower class to get into racing shape........and you take some ridiculous price.......its on you. I didn't bet Sunday because I had to see my mom but you can bet your bottom dollar that I would of bet against this horse, like the sharp people on this thread did. The "internet fantasy land" is a great thing for people that bet against underlays. Years ago horses ran more and losing was not a big deal, part of the handicapping process is figuring out motivation. Does a horse like Palace Malice really need to win a race like that? If you bet it like the answer was "yes"......you got what you deserved. Allen and the others are right on........and I'll add this: the difference between a "fan" and someone that actually takes the time to understand the reality of horse racing (betting all sports) gives you gems like this. You should know better, that's why races like this should be passed or you gotta bet against. People have this notion that the whales "know everything" and that regular people never bet foolishly.........they do it often enough to cash against them. Does the track have to post a disclaimer or something? Its gambling and HANDICAPPING SRU.

So, if a trainer illegally drugs a horse and i bet some other horse and the drugged horse beats me by a nose and i rip up my tickets and then find out that the winner was DQd from purse money and my horse was placed first, is that "on me" too?

After all, its gambling and handicapping, right? Shouldn't i have known that one guy was 'trying harder' than the other guy?

If i complained about the above example i listed, you could said that i should have known better and that the winning trainer was an obvious cheater and that should have been something that i considered before i bet the race.

I know my example isn't what we are talking about, but i made the example to ask this question. If the Palice Mailce "exercise race" was "on me" to know, are there some examples that ARENT on me? Or, is everything on the bettors all the time?

raybo
05-12-2015, 04:25 PM
So, if a trainer illegally drugs a horse and i bet some other horse and the drugged horse beats me by a nose and i rip up my tickets and then find out that the winner was DQd from purse money and my horse was placed first, is that "on me" too?

After all, its gambling and handicapping, right? Shouldn't i have known that one guy was 'trying harder' than the other guy?

If i complained about the above example i listed, you could said that i should have known better and that the winning trainer was an obvious cheater and that should have been something that i considered before i bet the race.

I know my example isn't what we are talking about, but i made the example to ask this question. If the Palice Mailce "exercise race" was "on me" to know, are there some examples that ARENT on me? Or, is everything on the bettors all the time?

The point is that you never distinguished between PM being in a conditioning race and "cheaters". PM's trainer was not cheating, he was prepping the horse for a specific race in the future, and stated that fact, before this race, publicly. Sure there are things that we as bettors should know, but in this case we did know, and many bettors chose to ignore it anyway, and still thought PM was going to run full out to the end. That, IMO, is a very good example of ignorance.

Relwob Owner
05-12-2015, 04:29 PM
So, if a trainer illegally drugs a horse and i bet some other horse and the drugged horse beats me by a nose and i rip up my tickets and then find out that the winner was DQd from purse money and my horse was placed first, is that "on me" too?

After all, its gambling and handicapping, right? Shouldn't i have known that one guy was 'trying harder' than the other guy?

If i complained about the above example i listed, you could said that i should have known better and that the winning trainer was an obvious cheater and that should have been something that i considered before i bet the race.

I know my example isn't what we are talking about, but i made the example to ask this question. If the Palice Mailce "exercise race" was "on me" to know, are there some examples that ARENT on me? Or, is everything on the bettors all the time?


If horse racing annoys you so much, why not stop following it?

biggestal99
05-12-2015, 04:44 PM
So, if a trainer illegally drugs a horse and i bet some other horse and the drugged horse beats me by a nose and i rip up my tickets and then find out that the winner was DQd from purse money and my horse was placed first, is that "on me" too?

After all, its gambling and handicapping, right? Shouldn't i have known that one guy was 'trying harder' than the other guy?

If i complained about the above example i listed, you could said that i should have known better and that the winning trainer was an obvious cheater and that should have been something that i considered before i bet the race.

I know my example isn't what we are talking about, but i made the example to ask this question. If the Palice Mailce "exercise race" was "on me" to know, are there some examples that ARENT on me? Or, is everything on the bettors all the time?

You payyour money, ya takes your chances.

Except in g1 of the highest ilk, ya gotta figure out whats going on, aka whos trying to win and wh0s not. From practically day one as a horseplayer low those40 years ago, i knew that horses are cycle animals, some win off the layoff, some need a race or 2 to produce their best
Some run on anything, at any distance, some need exact surface/distance to give their best.

Once had a turfer mare, would put forth full effort on grass when things went her way.

Once she went off at 4-1 in an off the turfer, anybody with any common handicapping skill knew she wouldn't run an inch in theslop, yetthere she was at 4-1 because 0f a class egdge
She ran up thetrack. Next out entered in a higher class on the grass, jiggy jogs at 7-1.

HANDICAPPING 101.

FIRST QUESTION to be asked inany race. What is this horse doing at this class/distance/surface.

Allan

Stillriledup
05-12-2015, 04:54 PM
The point is that you never distinguished between PM being in a conditioning race and "cheaters". PM's trainer was not cheating, he was prepping the horse for a specific race in the future, and stated that fact, before this race, publicly. Sure there are things that we as bettors should know, but in this case we did know, and many bettors chose to ignore it anyway, and still thought PM was going to run full out to the end. That, IMO, is a very good example of ignorance.

I was just talking about what is on the bettors to know. I must not be up to speed on racing rules, but i was always under the impression that you can't pick and choose when you try and that you are "supposed to" try all the time. Also, why not prep the horse in workouts instead of prepping him with the publics money on his back? No reason they can't mimic actual races, they can get a couple of stablemates and "Race" in company at racehorse speed with real jocks in tow, whips in hand, they can get what they need out of a good 6F workout in company from the gate in the morning if they so choose. But they instead chose to give him a "practice" race with hundreds of thousands of dollars riding on the race he was entered in.

Stillriledup
05-12-2015, 04:56 PM
If horse racing annoys you so much, why not stop following it?

If Michael Jordan missed 8 shots in a row and complained to his teammate about his cold streak and you were in the front row behind the Bulls bench and overheard him being annoyed, would you suggest to him he should stop playing basketball?

raybo
05-12-2015, 05:22 PM
I was just talking about what is on the bettors to know. I must not be up to speed on racing rules, but i was always under the impression that you can't pick and choose when you try and that you are "supposed to" try all the time. Also, why not prep the horse in workouts instead of prepping him with the publics money on his back? No reason they can't mimic actual races, they can get a couple of stablemates and "Race" in company at racehorse speed with real jocks in tow, whips in hand, they can get what they need out of a good 6F workout in company from the gate in the morning if they so choose. But they instead chose to give him a "practice" race with hundreds of thousands of dollars riding on the race he was entered in.

Workouts are not like real races, and if you don't know that then you're in the wrong game,. The rules of racing, as far as I know, do not try to enforce a rule that every horse in a race must run full out, never have, and never will.

There is no substitute for competing against quality opponents, superior opponents. Sure you can choose to run against inferior horses, but that won't necessarily prepare a horse to compete against better animals. If you're not prepared to compete against superior opponents then you're not likely to ever be able to compete successfully against quality opponents. Anyone who has ever competed at a high level knows that. You learn things from superior competition that just can't be learned from inferior competition.

The "hundreds of thousands of dollars" you speak of was on the bettors who bet on him. The info and evidence was out there, they just didn't seek it out, or chose to ignore it ("ignore" tends to lead to "ignorance"). So, keep it up, you're heading that way quickly.

raybo
05-12-2015, 05:28 PM
If Michael Jordan missed 8 shots in a row and complained to his teammate about his cold streak and you were in the front row behind the Bulls bench and overheard him being annoyed, would you suggest to him he should stop playing basketball?

Yes, I'd suggest he take a break and get his head right. If his head isn't right he won't perform to his potential, and that hurts his team.

Stillriledup
05-12-2015, 05:44 PM
Workouts are not like real races, and if you don't know that then you're in the wrong game,. The rules of racing, as far as I know, do not try to enforce a rule that every horse in a race must run full out, never have, and never will.

There is no substitute for competing against quality opponents, superior opponents. Sure you can choose to run against inferior horses, but that won't necessarily prepare a horse to compete against better animals. If you're not prepared to compete against superior opponents then you're not likely to ever be able to compete successfully against quality opponents. Anyone who has ever competed at a high level knows that. You learn things from superior competition that just can't be learned from inferior competition.

The "hundreds of thousands of dollars" you speak of was on the bettors who bet on him. The info and evidence was out there, they just didn't seek it out, or chose to ignore it ("ignore" tends to lead to "ignorance"). So, keep it up, you're heading that way quickly.

Tell me why a horse can't get dead fit off workouts and needs a "Race" to get fit. Plenty of horses win off long layoffs, those horses had no problem getting fit....PM is a great horse, if anyone can get 100% fit off works, its the great ones.

Everyone who bet the race that PM was in had to deal with the "uncertainty" of his fitness, not just those who bet on him.

Stillriledup
05-12-2015, 05:45 PM
Yes, I'd suggest he take a break and get his head right. If his head isn't right he won't perform to his potential, and that hurts his team.

But RO suggested to me to "stop following it" you wouldn't tell Jordan to "quit basketball" altogether, right?

cj
05-12-2015, 05:46 PM
I'm surprised he ran as well as third. These "comeback" horses almost never return to near top form. I predicted he was done after his last race last year, but I'm glad they are trying.

Stillriledup
05-12-2015, 05:52 PM
I'm surprised he ran as well as third. These "comeback" horses almost never return to near top form. I predicted he was done after his last race last year, but I'm glad they are trying.

You're right, you don't often see horses essentially retired and then come back to full power, great job just to get him to this level. Im a fan of the horse so i'm glad he's back, hopefully he can take the next step and get back to being great again.

raybo
05-12-2015, 05:55 PM
Tell me why a horse can't get dead fit off workouts and needs a "Race" to get fit. Plenty of horses win off long layoffs, those horses had no problem getting fit....PM is a great horse, if anyone can get 100% fit off works, its the great ones.

Everyone who bet the race that PM was in had to deal with the "uncertainty" of his fitness, not just those who bet on him.

If you need me to tell you why horses can't get dead fit off workouts, you need to find some other game to be involved in. Some can, some can't, that's a fact. Just because a horse is a "great horse" doesn't mean that he can win after a long layoff, at a distance that doesn't suit him, and is being prepped for a future race, not this one. That's common sense, if you have any.

I had no problem dealing with the "uncertainty" of PM's condition or intentions. I knew going in that he was not a horse to bet on, and not just because his odds were way too low. It was obvious to me that he wouldn't give his best performance, and at 6f after a long layoff, and after what his trainer said before the race, it was a no brainer.

raybo
05-12-2015, 05:59 PM
But RO suggested to me to "stop following it" you wouldn't tell Jordan to "quit basketball" altogether, right?

I would if he couldn't, or refused to get his head straight. Some people just don't get it, they just keep going and going, all the while forming more and more bad habits. Some of them are right here on this forum. ;)

Stillriledup
05-12-2015, 05:59 PM
If you need me to tell you why horses can't get dead fit off workouts, you need to find some other game to be involved in. Some can, some can't, that's a fact. Just because a horse is a "great horse" doesn't mean that he can win after a long layoff, at a distance that doesn't suit him, and is being prepped for a future race, not this one. That's common sense, if you have any.

I had no problem dealing with the "uncertainty" of PM's condition or intentions. I knew going in that he was not a horse to bet on, and not just because his odds were way too low. It was obvious to me that he wouldn't give his best performance, and at 6f after a long layoff, and after what his trainer said before the race, it was a no brainer.

So if some can and some can't, how do we know PM isnt one who can? Also, explain to me why a race gets a horse "more fit" than a workout that is accomplished at full speed, in company, with a jockey urging the horse as if its a real race. Now, if you work 6F in 114 with an exercise rider and no urging and not in company you won't get much out of it, but if you mimic an actual race with race speed, real jock, whips, in company, etc how is that different from an actual race?

raybo
05-12-2015, 06:02 PM
There's a saying down here in Texas, and other places in the south (maybe even other places too), "You can't fix stupid". :bang:

Stillriledup
05-12-2015, 06:04 PM
There's a saying down here in Texas, and other places in the south (maybe even other places too), "You can't fix stupid". :bang:

That's your problem. Btw, how are the Rockets doing? :p

Some_One
05-12-2015, 06:14 PM
If there was a match race between a champion kenyan marathon runner and Usain Bolt over the 100m, that kenyan will surely try as hard as he can, but he still won't come close to Bolt.

In Aus/Asia, it's common to see champion distance horses come back first up in a shorter race. Designs on Rome who won the HK Cup in Dec started his campaign in a 1400 G3 race, and the smart HK bettors made him only 6-1 (versus the evens and less he normally goes off at when he races over 2000m)

Relwob Owner
05-12-2015, 06:25 PM
If Michael Jordan missed 8 shots in a row and complained to his teammate about his cold streak and you were in the front row behind the Bulls bench and overheard him being annoyed, would you suggest to him he should stop playing basketball?


Awful analogy but par for the course with you. He is complaining about his jumper, not the rules of the game. Your constant complaining is exhausting and if you hate the rules so much, do something else.....please.

cj
05-12-2015, 06:44 PM
So if some can and some can't, how do we know PM isnt one who can? Also, explain to me why a race gets a horse "more fit" than a workout that is accomplished at full speed, in company, with a jockey urging the horse as if its a real race. Now, if you work 6F in 114 with an exercise rider and no urging and not in company you won't get much out of it, but if you mimic an actual race with race speed, real jock, whips, in company, etc how is that different from an actual race?

He had three different "off the bench" races, first time out and two returns from layoffs before Sunday. He had two seconds and a win. The win was at 6-5, the losses at 2-1 and 4-5. Also, his trainer is well known for horses firing fresh, yet this one had disappointed twice. You be the judge, does he fire best first off the layoff?

raybo
05-12-2015, 06:50 PM
That's your problem. Btw, how are the Rockets doing? :p

What problem is that?

I don't follow the Rockets, this is a big state with more than one team. My team didn't get out of the first round.:p

jk3521
05-12-2015, 06:52 PM
I think SRU needs a 45-90 day freshening layoff ! :D

Stillriledup
05-12-2015, 06:55 PM
I think SRU needs a 45-90 day freshening layoff ! :D

I can't argue! :D

Ruffian1
05-12-2015, 06:57 PM
So if some can and some can't, how do we know PM isnt one who can? Also, explain to me why a race gets a horse "more fit" than a workout that is accomplished at full speed, in company, with a jockey urging the horse as if its a real race. Now, if you work 6F in 114 with an exercise rider and no urging and not in company you won't get much out of it, but if you mimic an actual race with race speed, real jock, whips, in company, etc how is that different from an actual race?

The minority of horses can indeed get all they need out of as work, just like people can out of a practice instead of direct competition , but for the majority, it is not even close. Races help waaaay more. Customers need to understand that. You can't say " nobody cares about the customer" because every horse is not perfect for every race. Are you perfect for every card you handicap every day? I am not and you can't possibly be either. No one is.
I could go into great detail about training a horse with certain goals in mind, and I hope I will remember to down the road. I have not posted much lately as I am really busy finishing a house I built and tired when I get home, although I read to try and keep up. But this post, I just had to say something.

Lastly, EVERY horse is different! Just like people. What works for you does not automatically work for the next person. Or, maybe we should just blame them for being fat, lazy, mentally challenged, weird, different, or they don't try as hard, or care as much or blame them for anything we are not. C'mon man!
If we have learned anything over the years we have learned that people can indeed be different without being lesser or greater. Well SRU, and anyone that would feel the same, horses are no different. I know you think they are stupid, and for the most part, you might be right. but... what little they know, they know very well and typically recognize better than you or I do. It is just not as cut and dried as you think it is. I promise you that.

Relwob Owner
05-12-2015, 07:02 PM
I think SRU needs a 45-90 day freshening layoff ! :D

300-360 days

Stillriledup
05-12-2015, 07:08 PM
300-360 days

Wow that's 10X more than Tom Brady! :D

Stillriledup
05-12-2015, 07:14 PM
The minority of horses can indeed get all they need out of as work, just like people can out of a practice instead of direct competition , but for the majority, it is not even close. Races help waaaay more. Customers need to understand that. You can't say " nobody cares about the customer" because every horse is not perfect for every race. Are you perfect for every card you handicap every day? I am not and you can't possibly be either. No one is.
I could go into great detail about training a horse with certain goals in mind, and I hope I will remember to down the road. I have not posted much lately as I am really busy finishing a house I built and tired when I get home, although I read to try and keep up. But this post, I just had to say something.

Lastly, EVERY horse is different! Just like people. What works for you does not automatically work for the next person. Or, maybe we should just blame them for being fat, lazy, mentally challenged, weird, different, or they don't try as hard, or care as much or blame them for anything we are not. C'mon man!
If we have learned anything over the years we have learned that people can indeed be different without being lesser or greater. Well SRU, and anyone that would feel the same, horses are no different. I know you think they are stupid, and for the most part, you might be right. but... what little they know, they know very well and typically recognize better than you or I do. It is just not as cut and dried as you think it is. I promise you that.

Good post, thanks for taking time to chime in.

Maybe i wasn't asking my question the right way, let me ask it differently (or the same lol)

If a horse is specifically trained to win "off the bench" and you, as a trainer, wanted the horse to be as tight as a drum, you might drill him hard, train him hard, with jock on back in the morning, under urging, going 5F in 58 or 6F in 111 and really getting to the bottom of the horse in the work and you have the ability to work him with a few others in a team drill if you so choose....so, tell me why there's a difference between that type of training and an actual race. Now, they say in the NBA that no matter how hard you work out, you can't mimic game shape, i get that part because you're banging against other players, fighting for loose balls, stopping and starting, etc but in horse racing its just running in a circle and the harder you train the more fit you get. whats different about a race vs a workout (or 10 workouts) that mimic a race. I'm not disagreeing with you, i'm just not understanding the difference.

Ruffian1
05-12-2015, 07:50 PM
Good post, thanks for taking time to chime in.

Maybe i wasn't asking my question the right way, let me ask it differently (or the same lol)

If a horse is specifically trained to win "off the bench" and you, as a trainer, wanted the horse to be as tight as a drum, you might drill him hard, train him hard, with jock on back in the morning, under urging, going 5F in 58 or 6F in 111 and really getting to the bottom of the horse in the work and you have the ability to work him with a few others in a team drill if you so choose....so, tell me why there's a difference between that type of training and an actual race. Now, they say in the NBA that no matter how hard you work out, you can't mimic game shape, i get that part because you're banging against other players, fighting for loose balls, stopping and starting, etc but in horse racing its just running in a circle and the harder you train the more fit you get. whats different about a race vs a workout (or 10 workouts) that mimic a race. I'm not disagreeing with you, i'm just not understanding the difference.

Q. i get that part because you're banging against other players.

A. Banging against other horses in a race and that never happens in a controlled workout.

Q. fighting for loose balls

A. Fighting for position into the turn or two horses for one lane before the turn and that never happens in a controlled workout.

Q. stopping and starting,

A. stopping and starting( break a step slow, pinched a bit into the turn or down the backside, dirt in your face which only happens if the trainer asked for it or check when the horse next to you ducks.

Q. but in horse racing its just running in a circle

A. Anything but ! That circle can be like a heavy weight fight or a walk in the park but you never know how it's going to be.

I do realize that this is hard too believe. I doubt I ever would have believed it for a minute if I did not live it for as long as I did.
I think you answered your own question with a very solid basketball analogy though.
The rule of thumb for trainers is a race equals 2 or 3 workouts, depending on the particular horse. Again, just like people, some are aloof, some are like Barney Fife, some like Andy, and some like Guber and Floyd. Yep, I show my age, but SRU, it is the best way I can explain it.
All different, just like people.
In this case though, Todd has bigger fish to fry than winning the 1st sprint of the year with PM. Customers must recognize that. Not to say he can't win but it is a play against or a no play right? Met mile is the point isn't it ( I am not keeping up at all on this. Just a guess. I might be way off.). and Saratoga after that. And if he runs there twice, it will be the 2nd start that is the prize in all probability.
Just like American P. this summer after the triple crown. 1st race back, play against or no play right?
Don't get caught up in the 5/8ths in 58 stuff. It's like watching guys hit 8 home runs in batting practice and can't get it out of the infield in the game an hour later. Two totally different animals.
Hope that helps. I will try and keep up with this thread. Good Luck.

Sorry. Missed one thing in your question. Was he really trained to win off the bench? Too me, that would be crazy but did Todd say that or was that the general consensus?

Stillriledup
05-12-2015, 08:44 PM
Q. i get that part because you're banging against other players.

A. Banging against other horses in a race and that never happens in a controlled workout.

Q. fighting for loose balls

A. Fighting for position into the turn or two horses for one lane before the turn and that never happens in a controlled workout.

Q. stopping and starting,

A. stopping and starting( break a step slow, pinched a bit into the turn or down the backside, dirt in your face which only happens if the trainer asked for it or check when the horse next to you ducks.

Q. but in horse racing its just running in a circle

A. Anything but ! That circle can be like a heavy weight fight or a walk in the park but you never know how it's going to be.

I do realize that this is hard too believe. I doubt I ever would have believed it for a minute if I did not live it for as long as I did.
I think you answered your own question with a very solid basketball analogy though.
The rule of thumb for trainers is a race equals 2 or 3 workouts, depending on the particular horse. Again, just like people, some are aloof, some are like Barney Fife, some like Andy, and some like Guber and Floyd. Yep, I show my age, but SRU, it is the best way I can explain it.
All different, just like people.
In this case though, Todd has bigger fish to fry than winning the 1st sprint of the year with PM. Customers must recognize that. Not to say he can't win but it is a play against or a no play right? Met mile is the point isn't it ( I am not keeping up at all on this. Just a guess. I might be way off.). and Saratoga after that. And if he runs there twice, it will be the 2nd start that is the prize in all probability.
Just like American P. this summer after the triple crown. 1st race back, play against or no play right?
Don't get caught up in the 5/8ths in 58 stuff. It's like watching guys hit 8 home runs in batting practice and can't get it out of the infield in the game an hour later. Two totally different animals.
Hope that helps. I will try and keep up with this thread. Good Luck.

Sorry. Missed one thing in your question. Was he really trained to win off the bench? Too me, that would be crazy but did Todd say that or was that the general consensus?
'Thanks for the reply.

I think the gen consensus was that he was put in the race to not win, to just run around in a circle and get some 'exercise'. Now, he COULD have won at 80% just on being a great horse, but he wasnt ready to fire his best shot.

Most times, horses aren't trained to win first out, the ones who do are often giving up a little fitness as a trade for soundness. I'm pretty sure you had a fine line to cross when you had to decide how much work a horse needed but didnt want to do to much at the expense of wearing the horse down, so you gave up a little fitness to keep the horse "fresh" and sound.

Ruffian1
05-13-2015, 08:34 AM
'Thanks for the reply.

I think the gen consensus was that he was put in the race to not win, to just run around in a circle and get some 'exercise'. Now, he COULD have won at 80% just on being a great horse, but he wasnt ready to fire his best shot.

Most times, horses aren't trained to win first out, the ones who do are often giving up a little fitness as a trade for soundness. I'm pretty sure you had a fine line to cross when you had to decide how much work a horse needed but didnt want to do to much at the expense of wearing the horse down, so you gave up a little fitness to keep the horse "fresh" and sound.

Correct. But do know, and I can only speak for myself, I do not recall running a horse off the bench that I felt had no chance to win. I might have known that the horse could have been sharper, fitter or whatever, but 80% sharp or fit horses win too. The horse might have needed everything to go right to win. It was never about trying to deceive the public, or betting another horse. It was always about the health and well being of the horse I was paid to manage to the best of my ability.

cj
05-13-2015, 10:26 AM
'Thanks for the reply.

I think the gen consensus was that he was put in the race to not win, to just run around in a circle and get some 'exercise'. Now, he COULD have won at 80% just on being a great horse, but he wasnt ready to fire his best shot.

Most times, horses aren't trained to win first out, the ones who do are often giving up a little fitness as a trade for soundness. I'm pretty sure you had a fine line to cross when you had to decide how much work a horse needed but didnt want to do to much at the expense of wearing the horse down, so you gave up a little fitness to keep the horse "fresh" and sound.

Horses do not win at 80%, particularly against the type of field he was facing.

PaceAdvantage
05-13-2015, 02:24 PM
I can't argue! :DThat's a first.