Chasing the chalk @BEL!!!

[TheOracle]

So far, it's been a chalk fest at Belmont which really surprises me I thought win prices would have been bigger to start the season.

Prices paying under $8 have dominated the wins on both Turf and Dirt surfaces. Out of 74 win prices there were 44 that paid under $8 which is a rate of 59.4%.


http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/bel mltwoones.jpg

All / 5 ( represents Morning Line Odds ending with 5 i.e. 2/5, 3/5, ,,,etc.)

In particular the 2/1 listing in the Morning Line has won at a rate of exactly 50% and if all you did was play the 2/1 to win in Turf or Dirt races it would have cost you $48 and you would have won $62.90 which is a 31% return on your money

This is the same thing that happened at Aqueduct during the last month of the season in April!!

I think the house is setting everyone up for a big beat down coming up very soon I can't see Belmont continuing to pay win prices under $8 at a rate of close to 60%.


http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/bel mltdytwoones.jpg

Just today the Morning Line 2/1's went 4 for 4 a $2 wager to win on all 4 cost you $8 and you would have won $19.30 which is a 141% return on your money!!

Let's see what these do tomorrow they are 2/1 in the Morning Line:
Race 1
#6 Hot House Rose

Race 3
#1 Wolf Man Rocket

Race 7
#7 Discreet Marq

Let's see what happens!!!

[Robert Goren]

Fool's Gold.

[BlueChip@DRF]

I always bet Irad Ortiz Jr in race 5 and 6 at Belmont just as long as he's not on the favorite. He came in with some bombs more often than not in these races since he was an apprentice.

[TheOracle]

Fool's Gold.

Since Wednesday at Belmont, 20 of the last 27 races have had win prices paying less than $8 which is a rate of 74%.

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/bel twooneyst.jpg
All / 5 ( represents Morning Line Odds ending with 5 i.e. 2/5, 3/5, ,,,etc.)

I didn't see that yesterday, so it looks like it will be a blood bath for chalk players today at Belmont.

I can't see the house continuing to pay out win prices less than $8 at a rate of 74%.

However, if there are at least 2 winners from these 3 today
Race 1
#6 Hot House Rose

Race 3
#1 Wolf Man Rocket

Race 7
#7 Discreet Marq

I will continue to keep an eye on the Morning Line 2/1's tomorrow.

[therussmeister]

I always bet Irad Ortiz Jr in race 5 and 6 at Belmont just as long as he's not on the favorite. He came in with some bombs more often than not in these races since he was an apprentice.
I never 'always'. That word has been banned from my handicapping vocabulary for 15 years.

[BlueChip@DRF]

I never 'always'. That word has been banned from my handicapping vocabulary for 15 years.

As in "always verify what you see and read?"

[therussmeister]

As in "always verify what you see and read?"
I don't understand what you mean. Please give an example.

[TheOracle]

Fool's Gold.

I thought for sure the chalk players would have taken a beating at Belmont on Saturday.

However, there were 6 prices that paid less than $8 on Saturday so the chalkoholics got their way!!!

Interesting to note the Morning Line 2/1's had 2 wins in 3 attempts on Saturday as #6 Hot House Rose and #7 Discreet Marq both won their respective races.

A $2 wager to win on all 3 would have cost you $6 giving you a profit of $7.30 which is a 121% return on your money.

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/bel twoonesat.jpg




Since Wednesday the Morning Line 2/1's have now won 7 of their last 9 attempts a $2 wager to win on all 9 would have cost you $18 and you would have won $17.80 which is a 98% return on your money!!!


http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/bel twooneweek.jpg All / 5 ( represents Morning Line Odds ending with 5 i.e. 2/5, 3/5, ,,,etc.)

I don't know what the public handicapper is doing but he/she is on a roll there is only 1 listing at 2/1 in the Morning Line on Sunday:
Race 6
#4 Munasara


I guess sometimes you just have to take what they give you until they stop giving it to you!!!
Let's see what happens!!

[castaway01]

The "house" makes the same amount of money no matter what the horses pay, unless there is a minus pool. The takeout is the same in every race. Low-payoff horses may create more churn and be slightly better than longshots to the bottom line, but otherwise the track doesn't care what the horses pay.

[Robert Goren]

The "house" makes the same amount of money no matter what the horses pay, unless there is a minus pool. The takeout is the same in every race. Low-payoff horses may create more churn and be slightly better than longshots to the bottom line, but otherwise the track doesn't care what the horses pay.There is also more breakage with a short priced horse.

[therussmeister]

There is also more breakage with a short priced horse.
Perhaps not in New York. They break to the nickel on odds less than 4/1.

[TheOracle]

The "house" makes the same amount of money no matter what the horses pay, unless there is a minus pool. The takeout is the same in every race. Low-payoff horses may create more churn and be slightly better than longshots to the bottom line, but otherwise the track doesn't care what the horses pay.


Thanks Cast,

I thought there was some tie to the win payouts and what the track makes in terms of a profit.

Now, in looking at the data, it makes perfect sense that you can have a week like last week where 30 out of 46 win prices paid less than $8 which is a rate of 65%.

They don't care since their take out is the same.

[TheOracle]

Since Wednesday of last week the Morning Line 2/1's have won 8 of their last 10 attempts as #4 Munasara came through and won in the 6th race yesterday at Belmont.

So far, if you wagered $2 to win on the Morning Line 2/1's it would have cost you $20 and you would have won $41.70 which is a 108% return on your money!!!

http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/bel twooneweekmay.jpg
All / 5 ( represents Morning Line Odds ending with 5 i.e. 2/5, 3/5, ,,,etc.)

For some reason the public handicapper's choice at 2/1 won 80% of the time last week. I have never seen anyone hit 8 out of 10 singles!!

Let's see if the public handicapper can keep it going next week whatever he/she is doing it's working and it's great that the 2/1's are sometimes beating other Morning Line favorites with lower intial odds!!


I will be keeping a close eye on the Morning Line 2/1's next week!!!

[TheOracle]

#1 Golden Gem is 2/1 in the Morning Line tomorrow at Belmont:

Race 7
#1 Golden Gem


Let's see if the public handicapper can make it to 9 out of 11 wins for the 2/1 Morning Line.

Let's see what happens!!!

[TheOracle]

Well the Morning Line 2/1's came back down to earth over the last 2 racing days at Belmont as they have only had 1 winner in the last 6 attempts.

#1 Golden Gem and #1 Gasparilla Inn both lost their respective races on Sunday.

The only winner in the past 2 racing days was in the 1st race today #2 Toohottoevenspeak.


http://www.insidethenumbers.net/images/comments/bel twostrkdn.jpg


It was a pretty interesting trend while it lasted.


On to the next streak!!!