Materiality

[nads1420]

Materiality ran the last quarter in 25.61, American Pharoah 26.54, Firing Line 26.72, Dortmund 27.08... and im pretty sure he is the only horse in this crop that hasnt lost ground in the stretch in any race he has run...

If you want a payday in the Preakness Materiality on top of an exotic is the play... he started real bad out of the gate and had a brutal trip

[Tom]

So if he breaks on top, he not have that energy left late to run that kind of third fraction.

[nijinski]

He had a terrible trip

[razorback5]

Should be fresh the Derby was nothing more then a glorified workout. Like AP/Mat ice cold exacta.

[Robert Fischer]

And he ran his last furlong in 12.80.

I have mixed feelings here. I agree with Tom that it's possible his trip aided his finish.

I think he also showed some class by holding it together for 8 or 9 Furlongs through what was a trip with few opportunities.

We know he's fast, and we know he can run near the lead from his Florida Derby win.

He may have saved some horse while waiting entering the stretch but it was a positive sign nonetheless.

[DRIVEWAY]

A lightly raced horse with traffic issues in the Derby, that normally has early positional speed, will most likely find himself in the short field Preakness on or near the lead. The closing speed in the Derby bodes well for a strong finish in the Preakness.

Coming back for the first time in two weeks is another issue. PLetcher is capable of shooting for other less taxing opportunities. Chances are that Materiality would have to be kicking the barn door down and 1000% before Pletcher would enter him in the Preakness.

[MJC922]

I like the horse, however my thought post-mortem is like Upstart they both left their A-race in the final prep. Look at the evidence, this one was reluctant to break, practically like he had lead shoes on and cowering out of there, mentally wanted no part of it IMO, late in the game he started picking it up on ability, the other one could barely make it around the course DNF. Huge X-out (bounce) for both that day, and I frankly wouldn't bet on a rebound this soon. IMO it will take time for Materiality to get his game face back on which is a shame because I think he can give some of these a fight. The other side of the coin is you will get big odds if he's entered, I suppose if he shows up there it indicates Todd thinks he came out of it good. As much as I'd like to chase that it's tough to.

[ArlJim78]

I think the horse has real talent but may need time to regroup before we see his best. Right now I don't think he is up to running with the top four derby finishers. His derby was odd. Initially while being asked for run on the turn he had nothing while Frosted blew by him like he was standing still. Then after straightening for home he gradually gathered momentum and gobbled up a lot of ground late. But then again so did Keen Ice and the horses they passed were tired outclassed rivals.

[PizzaCat]

Apologies if I missed the news, is Materiality actually running in the Preakness? Given his stamina late in the race you would think he'd tee up perfectly for the Belmont. Also surprising as Pletcher horses often skip the Preakness after the Derby.

[minethatbird08]

Apologies if I missed the news, is Materiality actually running in the Preakness? Given his stamina late in the race you would think he'd tee up perfectly for the Belmont. Also surprising as Pletcher horses often skip the Preakness after the Derby.

Pletcher said he is evaluating his horses for the Preakness. Sounds like he is only considering Carpe Diem, Materiality, and Competitive Edge. Honestly, I think he skips the race, like you said he doesn't run on short rest often.

Also, as a side looks like Stanford is skipping the Peter Pan, which was the target after skipping the Derby.

[sbcaris]

Robert Fisher said Materiality ran the last eighth of the Derby in 12.8 seconds.

Robert:
Could you explain how you came up with the above figure? Don't you need to know his time at 9 furlongs to calculate the last eighth. How do you get his time for 9 furlongs?

[Robert Fischer]

Robert Fisher said Materiality ran the last eighth of the Derby in 12.8 seconds.

Robert:
Could you explain how you came up with the above figure? Don't you need to know his time at 9 furlongs to calculate the last eighth. How do you get his time for 9 furlongs?

I used the Trakus (http://tnetwork.trakus.com/tnet/Login.aspx?) data.


1 3/16th (9.5f)

American Pharoah
6.89 332 12.5 32.9 3/4 1:55.78 40.2 6390 --- 37.6

Firing Line
6.98 333 7.1 32.5 1 1:55.92 40.4 6361 -29 37.4

Dortmund
6.98 332 2.0 32.4 2 1/2 1:56.09 40.8 6321 -69 37.1

Frosted
6.83 333 13.2 33.2 1 1/4 1:56.56 39.5 6396 6 37.4

Danzig Moon
6.95 332 5.9 32.6 3 1:56.80 40.1 6347 -43 37.0

Mubtaahij (IRE)
6.92 333 4.2 32.8 1 1/2 1:57.33 39.4 6324 -66 36.8

Itsaknockout
6.72 333 22.6 33.7 Head 1:57.59 39.8 6380 -10 37.0

Materiality
6.37 333 8.5 35.6 Neck 1:57.60 39.0 6370 -20 36.9

Carpe Diem
6.89 333 12.7 33.0 1/4 1:57.62 40.4 6334 -56 36.7

Keen Ice
6.43 331 24.6 35.1 3/4 1:57.62 38.5 6339 -51 36.7


1 1/4 (10F)

American Pharoah
7.01 333 15.4 32.3 1 2:02.80 40.2 6723 --- 37.3

Firing Line
7.09 333 10.3 32.0 1/2 2:03.02 40.4 6694 -29 37.1

Dortmund
7.07 333 4.1 32.1 1 1/4 2:03.16 40.8 6654 -69 36.8

Frosted
6.86 333 17.8 33.1 1 3/4 2:03.42 39.5 6730 7 37.2

Danzig Moon
7.01 333 9.6 32.4 1 2:03.81 40.1 6680 -43 36.8

Materiality
6.43 332 12.5 35.2 3/4 2:04.04 39.0 6702 -21 36.8

Keen Ice
6.57 333 29.9 34.5 1/2 2:04.20 38.5 6672 -51 36.6

Mubtaahij (IRE)
7.01 333 8.7 32.4 Neck 2:04.34 39.4 6657 -66 36.5

Itsaknockout
6.78 333 27.8 33.5 3/4 2:04.37 39.8 6713 -10 36.8

Carpe Diem
6.95 332 17.7 32.5 1/2 2:04.57 40.4 6666 -57 36.5

[sbcaris]

Robert Fisher: Thanks for the numbers. One thing puzzles me. Your list above shows American Pharaoh going 10 furlongs in 2:02.80 whereas the official chart of the DRF shows his time to be 2:03.02.

Is Trakus different in timing than the DRF?

[Robert Fischer]

Robert Fisher: Thanks for the numbers. One thing puzzles me. Your list above shows American Pharaoh going 10 furlongs in 2:02.80 whereas the official chart of the DRF shows his time to be 2:03.02.

Is Trakus different in timing than the DRF?

Good questions.
I'm not sure.

CJ has some comments on this here (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=122579).

To be honest, I have a lot on my plate and am not motivated to figure out the exact cause of this puzzle.

Trakus is a useful tool.
The trakus times seem to be accurate insofar as measuring internal fractions and comparing them amongst various runners. We can use that data and we can watch some of the high definition replays of the race, and it is somewhat useful. Ground-loss is also useful. It has to be taken in context with the pace for best results.

[Appy]

IMO Preakness value is diluted with Materiality out.

[letswastemoney]

I do not think closing time in the Derby tips off who will win the Preakness or Belmont. In 2013, Oxbow and Palace Malice faded badly in the Derby, and they were the two best in the other legs.

Materiality is probably on American Pharoah's level though.

[horses4courses]

His next race will be the Belmont

http://www.drf.com/news/preview/materiality-skip-preakness

[f2tornado]

Reminds me of Comissioner last year but won't get 30-1.

[ILovetheInner]

So thrilled to hear that for the horse's sake. He has been on a very demanding schedule from the get go, and IMO this is a nice one.