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Poindexter
05-05-2015, 09:00 AM
Since Big Brown won the Kentucky Derby, it seems that he winning Kentucky Derby Beyer has been pretty mediocre/poor relative to the Beyers earned in the Kentucky Derby the prior 15 years or so. My question is has the Thoroughbred regressed that much in recent years or is there a flaw in the Beyer methodology that is bringing these Beyer Figures down over the years(and thus make a 112 Beyer in 2015 superior to a 112 Beyer in the year 2000). I do not know what Beyer American Pharoah was given and obviously California Chromes number last years was too low, BUT, the prior 5 years were amongst the 7 lowest Beyers given for a 20 year period or so. Only Sea Hero in 1992 and Giacomo in 2005 were in the same range and both of these guys had uneventful careers. Based off of the recent Beyers it seems like the Beyers of 110 to 116 for a Kentucky Derby winner, that was not unusual, would be quite an accomplishment today.

2014 California Chrome 97
2013 Orb 104
2012 I'll Have Another 101
2011 Animal Kingdom 103
2010 Super Saver 104
2009 Mine That Bird 105
2008 Big Brown 109
2007 Street Sense 110
2006 Barbaro 111
2005 Giacomo 100
2004 Smarty Jones 107
2003 Funny Cide 109
2002 War Emblem 114
2001 Monarchos 116
2000 Fusaichi Pegasus 108
1999 Charismatic 108
1998 Real Quiet 107
1997 Silver Charm 115
1996 Grindstone 112
1995 Thunder Gulch 108
1994 Go for Gin 112
1993 Sea Hero 105
1992 Lil E tee 107

classhandicapper
05-05-2015, 09:20 AM
It could be that our horses aren't as well bred to run 10F as they used to be.

It could be they are less prepared to run that far so soon given how lightly raced they are.

It could be changes in drug policy (no steroids for example).

I do a lot of PAR research. I've found that Beyers for Grade 1 horses in general are running 5-6 points lower than they used to in the steroid and prior era. I've always felt that speed figures are NOT a very good way to make historical comparisons because surfaces change, training methods change, drug policy changes, and it's very hard to control for subtle figure drift over the years.

cj
05-05-2015, 10:56 AM
It could be that our horses aren't as well bred to run 10F as they used to be.

It could be they are less prepared to run that far so soon given how lightly raced they are.

It could be changes in drug policy (no steroids for example).

I do a lot of PAR research. I've found that Beyers for Grade 1 horses in general are running 5-6 points lower than they used to in the steroid and prior era. I've always felt that speed figures are NOT a very good way to make historical comparisons because surfaces change, training methods change, drug policy changes, and it's very hard to control for subtle figure drift over the years.

Speed figures are supposed to equate performances at different distances. If horses aren't bred to go 10f any longer, than the method should adapt the ratings at that distance to put them back in line with other distances, in my opinion of course.

DeltaLover
05-05-2015, 11:02 AM
I've always felt that speed figures are NOT a very good way to make historical comparisons because surfaces change, training methods change, drug policy changes, and it's very hard to control for subtle figure drift over the years.

:ThmbUp:

Words of wisdom Class!

Another thing:

Do we really need historical comparisons?

PaceAdvantage
05-05-2015, 11:19 AM
I do not know what Beyer American Pharoah was given and obviously California Chromes number last years was too low,Why is it obvious CC's number was too low?

He hasn't exactly set the world on fire since...

Saratoga_Mike
05-05-2015, 11:20 AM
Speed figures are supposed to equate performances at different distances. If horses aren't bred to go 10f any longer, than the method should adapt the ratings at that distance to put them back in line with other distances, in my opinion of course.

I was thinking about this issue yesterday. I think I disagree with you. I want a Beyer/TimeformUSA performance from the 1997 Derby at 118 (made that up) to be equivalent to a 118 Beyer in 2016. I don't want to grade on a curve.

cj
05-05-2015, 11:26 AM
I was thinking about this issue yesterday. I think I disagree with you. I want a Beyer/TimeformUSA performance from the 1997 Derby at 118 (made that up) to be equivalent to a 118 Beyer in 2016. I don't want to grade on a curve.


How does that help a bettor? We aren't selling PPs to historians. And actually, this site that in my opinion, but that is another discussion.

classhandicapper
05-05-2015, 11:27 AM
Speed figures are supposed to equate performances at different distances. If horses aren't bred to go 10f any longer, than the method should adapt the ratings at that distance to put them back in line with other distances, in my opinion of course.

I agree with you on that.

Beyer has made a lot of tweaks to his charts since he first published them. I'm not sure what he thinks about the Derby figures, but he hinted at some stuff in an article I read last year where he mentioned steroids etc...

I sidestep the entire issue by looking at who is beating who, by how much, how consistently, with what trip, etc.... On that basis I thought this was a very strong Derby field. I didn't think anyone was spectacular within it, but I'm not finished reviewing the day and the trips yet. I will say that despite the rumors, IMO there was no Seattle Slew in the race. ;)

classhandicapper
05-05-2015, 11:30 AM
I was thinking about this issue yesterday. I think I disagree with you. I want a Beyer/TimeformUSA performance from the 1997 Derby at 118 (made that up) to be equivalent to a 118 Beyer in 2016. I don't want to grade on a curve.

I believe that's generally the goal, but it's kind of like baseball stats from different eras. Things about the game change and it's hard to control for everything so they mean the same thing.

PaceAdvantage
05-05-2015, 11:31 AM
I will say that despite the rumors, IMO there was no Seattle Slew in the race. ;)Careful now...from what I remember, Slew didn't earn big time speed figures as a 3yo..

classhandicapper
05-05-2015, 12:04 PM
Careful now...from what I remember, Slew didn't earn big time speed figures as a 3yo..

Yea, but he got left at the start like Materiality, bulled his way through the entire field, got into a fast paced duel with For the Moment, and won with something in reserve. Maybe not a great figure, but an amazing race. ;)

Inner Dirt
05-05-2015, 12:19 PM
]It could be that our horses aren't as well bred to run 10F as they used to be.
[/b]
It could be they are less prepared to run that far so soon given how lightly raced they are.

It could be changes in drug policy (no steroids for example).

I do a lot of PAR research. I've found that Beyers for Grade 1 horses in general are running 5-6 points lower than they used to in the steroid and prior era. I've always felt that speed figures are NOT a very good way to make historical comparisons because surfaces change, training methods change, drug policy changes, and it's very hard to control for subtle figure drift over the years.

I will take those two, since specific races over time as a whole have gotten shorter it would make sense that breeders are more likely to breed more toward speed than stamina. On the second point even though testing is always behind PEDs it is more advanced and thorough than ever, no one is going to get away with giving heroin to horses for years and years like a Los Alamitos trainer did in the 80's.

ronsmac
05-05-2015, 12:26 PM
Beyers have shrunk a lot the past 20 yrs. There were a lot of 116+ and even a number of120+ beyers in the 90s and early 2000s , not so much anymore. Is it the horses? That's hard to say. I do know jocks seem to rate more than they did 20 yrs ago.

OTM Al
05-05-2015, 01:25 PM
The tentpole that wasn't supposed to move, moved due to slots inflated purses. Drugs have always been there but that chart pretty well matches the proliferation of slots fed purses and thus runners with the baseline 70 par (10K claimers I think) are now 15K and 20K claimers of past years, thus depressing the scale at the top.

Saratoga_Mike
05-05-2015, 02:18 PM
How does that help a bettor? We aren't selling PPs to historians. And actually, this site that in my opinion, but that is another discussion.

The bettor has to use judgment. Groovy could run a 120 Beyer at 6 furlongs, but he certainly couldn't repeat that effort at 10 furlongs. I appreciate that your point is broader than one horse, but I still think speed figures should stay comparable over time. I do like the historian comment, though!

cj
05-05-2015, 02:43 PM
The bettor has to use judgment. Groovy could run a 120 Beyer at 6 furlongs, but he certainly couldn't repeat that effort at 10 furlongs. I appreciate that your point is broader than one horse, but I still think speed figures should stay comparable over time. I do like the historian comment, though!

I understand horses are going to run different figures at different distances depending on ability. What I am saying is that a G1 for older males sprinting should have figures that equate to a G1 for older males routing, and other categories should be pretty close like turf routes.

Maybe that actually is the case and all Beyer figures are shrinking. If that is true, then his scales are still aligned, but it brings into question the stamina issue. Why would sprinter figures be shrinking as well, they should be increasing if we are breeding for speed.

dilanesp
05-05-2015, 03:44 PM
Why does one think a speed figure from 20 years ago is comparable to one now?

Speed figures are ultimately based on an estimation of the class of various claiming races, which relates to time. Unless there is no inflation or deflation in horse prices, speed figures should change over time, which means they can't be used to measure if modern horses are stronger or weaker.

ronsmac
05-05-2015, 03:46 PM
Why is it obvious CC's number was too low?

He hasn't exactly set the world on fire since...Compared to the Derby, his Preakness , B-Cup , San Antonio and Dubai numbers are on fire.

ronsmac
05-05-2015, 03:48 PM
Compared to the Derby, his Preakness , B-Cup , San Antonio and Dubai numbers are on fire. Beyers not necessarily numbers. Others had different numbers.

cj
05-05-2015, 03:49 PM
Why does one think a speed figure from 20 years ago is comparable to one now?

Speed figures are ultimately based on an estimation of the class of various claiming races, which relates to time. Unless there is no inflation or deflation in horse prices, speed figures should change over time, which means they can't be used to measure if modern horses are stronger or weaker.

This is what I was kind of getting at with my "another discussion" post. I think historically, it is best to keep, for example, the average of G1 races for older males around the same from year to year. There will be some fluctuation as some crops are better of course. But the way to differentiate horses from different eras is by looking at how much better than the rest of the crop.

Example, average G1 is around a 100 on whatever scale. We could could look and say Slews best figures were 110 at his peak, or 10 better than the average G1 winner of his generation. You can compare other horses to that.

raybo
05-05-2015, 03:52 PM
I think that speed figures are generally lower now than in the past because more speed figure makers are taking pace into stronger account now than in the past, and jockeys and trainers are feeling better about running off the pace rather than on the pace now than in the past when speed was truly king. After all, they handicap fields too, and when it looks like there are lots of speed horses in a field, some of those obvious speed horses are now laying off the leaders in order to avoid getting caught up in a projected tiring fast pace duel. So, for those horses who happen to come from off a modest pace and win, their speed figures are adjusted down due to the modest pace, instead of the other way around. TimeFormUS, however, seems to do a good job of not downgrading those horses' speed figures, too much, against a modest pace as much as some of the other figure makers, because it is harder to close off a modest pace than a fast pace.

Greyfox
05-05-2015, 04:01 PM
Why would sprinter figures be shrinking as well, they should be increasing if we are breeding for speed.

Good question.

My guess would be a quantitative and qualitative change in use in steroids since 2008 after Big Brown won the 208 Derby.
"Roids" haven't been totally banned as they can be approved in certain rehabilitation instances. But their use is definitely far more limited since 2009.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/90121/anabolic-steroids-still-issue-in-us-racing

Greyfox
05-05-2015, 04:31 PM
Why would sprinter figures be shrinking as well, they should be increasing if we are breeding for speed.

One other explanation, which I think is less plausible but not out of the question, is that with the down turn of the American economy less thoroughbreds than ever are being bred.

At one time breeders used to have close to 40,000 foals per year.
For most of the early 2000's there were 35,000 foals.
In 2014 that number is down to 22,000 - the lowest since 1967.

http://horsetalk.co.nz/2013/08/17/us-tb-foal-births-45-year-low/#axzz3ZIVzVn9V

JustRalph
05-05-2015, 04:46 PM
What about raw times? Have they changed much?

Greyfox
05-05-2015, 04:48 PM
What about raw times? Have they changed much?

30 of the last 36 raw times in the Kentucky Derby were better than or matched American Pharoahs.

http://www.horseracingnation.com/stakes/Kentucky_Derby

Poindexter
05-05-2015, 05:12 PM
From a time standpoint Steroids explanation makes some sense, but am I to believe that all or most prior Kentucky Derby winners were on Steroids? Find that really hard to believe but obviously I could be wrong. Baffert states that his 3 were not in this article
ny times article (http://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/28/sports/othersports/28horses.html?pagewanted=all)

if I am to believe him. If it is a shift in 10,000 claimers, than if you looked at the figures relative to the par times of older Grade 1 winners(as CJ alluded to earlier in this thread) you can get a gauge from the top rather than the bottom. Based off of that I am curious if CJ or any other figure makers, consider the Kentucky Derby winners since Big Brown to be significantly slower that the prior ones as the Beyers seem to indicate. In other words if Silver charm eared a 115 when the grade 1 par was a 115 and Orb earned a 104 when the grade 1 par was a 104 they would be basically about equal performances on that scale even though the Beyers are significantly different.



I am not looking to figure out who is better between Silver Charm, and War Emblem and Monarchos (honestly I could care less). I am just curious as to why such a substantial drop over recent years.

Robert Fischer
05-05-2015, 05:27 PM
beyers are tough to make for these odd races, and you have projections that factor in as well.

here are some comments


2015 American Pharoah 105 - Seems fair enough given the scale of the last ten(10) years here. He was wide and clear (a la Big Brown), and seemed stressed out throughout the parade, but he won in classy workman-like fashion against a proven rival in a very formful and logical Derby that didn't suggest a lot of massive form changes.

2014 California Chrome 97 - about 4 pts too low given the scale here, not a all-time great horse, but he got 'his' trip that day and fired.

2013 Orb 104 -A bit high, but not awful (really only looks awful next IHA's 101) (beneficiary of a pace collapse, although figures aren't supposed to factor trip per se).

2012 I'll Have Another 101 -Erronously low figure(maybe 4 or 5 pts on the scale here), given the fast/formful nature of the legitimately best horses (Bodemeister predictably carrying the lead in 109.80) and his powerful drive.

2011 Animal Kingdom 103 - Nice Solid effort in a relatively mediocre derby. Could debate that it was a point 'high' in this list, but why quibble?

2010 Super Saver 104 -Dream trip, in a mediocre derby with a mediocre raw time. Could easily have been given lower in hindsight of the recent 'low' scoring.

2009 Mine That Bird 105 - Dream trip in a mediocre derby, in solid time. Could easily have been given lower in hindsight of the recent 'low' scoring.

2008 Big Brown 109 - Wide and clear, legitimate superstar horse , fast raw time, track was playing fast, mediocre field. Derby beyer may have rewarded his talent and projections and trip, but it was a 'faster' performance than most here.

2007 Street Sense 110 - he had a dream trip, which supposedly is not counted against, and justifies the relatively high figure in this ballpark.

2006 Barbaro 111 - from memory he seemed to storm home in aesthetic fashion.

2005 Giacomo 100 - i can't remember, but his win seemed to be the result of a fortuitous late collapse to the race and if 100 is simply 'solid' for the derby, it's probably in the ballpark of what he ran.

Greyfox
05-05-2015, 06:29 PM
From a time standpoint Steroids explanation makes some sense, but am I to believe that all or most prior Kentucky Derby winners were on Steroids? Find that really hard to believe but obviously I could be wrong. Baffert states that his 3 were not in this article
ny times article (http://www.nytimes.com/2007/02/28/sports/othersports/28horses.html?pagewanted=all) if I am to believe him.

We have to believe Baffert when he says that they weren't on steroids for the Kentucky Derby, although he had admitted to using steroids with some horses.

Baffert didn't say whether or not those Derby winners had ever been given steroids during their developmental years leading up to the race.
Too bad the reporter didn't ask that question.

whodoyoulike
05-05-2015, 08:04 PM
I was thinking about this issue yesterday. I think I disagree with you. I want a Beyer/TimeformUSA performance from the 1997 Derby at 118 (made that up) to be equivalent to a 118 Beyer in 2016. I don't want to grade on a curve.

I always thought Beyer speed figures were horse specific where you use them to compare a specific horse's performance over time. A horse in 1997 with a 118 is not equivalent to a horse with a 118 Beyer in 2016 because the number is relative to all the other horses running on that race card on that particular date which means the quality of the number would vary. Now, if the quality of racing each day was the same then I can see this happening.

It's been awhile since I read Beyer's book (I think it was Picking Winners) and I may have misunderstood it or it could have changed over the years.

dilanesp
05-05-2015, 08:29 PM
I always thought Beyer speed figures were horse specific where you use them to compare a specific horse's performance over time. A horse in 1997 with a 118 is not equivalent to a horse with a 118 Beyer in 2016 because the number is relative to all the other horses running on that race card on that particular date which means the quality of the number would vary. Now, if the quality of racing each day was the same then I can see this happening.

It's been awhile since I read Beyer's book (I think it was Picking Winners) and I may have misunderstood it or it could have changed over the years.

The key is that to make figures, you need to start with a base class level that is similar from track to track. Otherwise, there's no way to know whether, say, Santa Anita is faster or slower than Lone Star Park. You can't use stakes horses, because the stakes at Santa Anita might be stronger and you don't know how much.

So traditionally, you would use some sort of claiming race. $10,000 claimers at Santa Anita should be fairly similar to those at Lone Star, because a $10,000 horse is a $10,000 horse. So, you then develop a scale for par times at Lone Star based on what their $10,000 claimers run, and you do that for each track.

That's something you do at the very beginning of the process for making speed figures. And that's perfectly fine for comparing speed figures of horses running at different tracks today.

But because a claiming price is an important part of the initial calculation, that also means that the figures 15 years from now can be very different because the horses running, say, an 83 par for $10,000 then might be better or worse than those now, because of inflation as well as the improvement or regression of the breed.

So speed figures are simply NOT a way of comparing horses who ran a decade apart. They weren't designed to be one. They were designed to be a way to compare horses running right now. They do that very well.

cj
05-05-2015, 08:51 PM
The key is that to make figures, you need to start with a base class level that is similar from track to track. Otherwise, there's no way to know whether, say, Santa Anita is faster or slower than Lone Star Park. You can't use stakes horses, because the stakes at Santa Anita might be stronger and you don't know how much.

So traditionally, you would use some sort of claiming race. $10,000 claimers at Santa Anita should be fairly similar to those at Lone Star, because a $10,000 horse is a $10,000 horse. So, you then develop a scale for par times at Lone Star based on what their $10,000 claimers run, and you do that for each track.

That's something you do at the very beginning of the process for making speed figures. And that's perfectly fine for comparing speed figures of horses running at different tracks today.

But because a claiming price is an important part of the initial calculation, that also means that the figures 15 years from now can be very different because the horses running, say, an 83 par for $10,000 then might be better or worse than those now, because of inflation as well as the improvement or regression of the breed.

So speed figures are simply NOT a way of comparing horses who ran a decade apart. They weren't designed to be one. They were designed to be a way to compare horses running right now. They do that very well.

The 10,000 horse is a 10,000 horse no matter where is a myth now, and it was a myth 10 years ago, and it was a myth 30 years ago when popularized in handicapping books at the time. 10,000 horses shipped from Laurel to Charles Town (I'm talking open 10, not the various conditioned 10s) and destroy them at miserly odds. This happened at many places as horses shipped around, and still happens today.

dilanesp
05-05-2015, 10:41 PM
The 10,000 horse is a 10,000 horse no matter where is a myth now, and it was a myth 10 years ago, and it was a myth 30 years ago when popularized in handicapping books at the time. 10,000 horses shipped from Laurel to Charles Town (I'm talking open 10, not the various conditioned 10s) and destroy them at miserly odds. This happened at many places as horses shipped around, and still happens today.

That's quite true, but speed figure makers take that into account by then running comparisons of speed figures at different tracks and adjusting pars.

That STILL, however, will not produce a speed figure system that accurately compares Thunder Gulch to American Pharaoh. It isn't designed to. It's designed to compare a shipper from Belmont to the local horse at Santa Anita.

whodoyoulike
05-05-2015, 11:03 PM
That's quite true, but speed figure makers take that into account by then running comparisons of speed figures at different tracks and adjusting pars.

That STILL, however, will not produce a speed figure system that accurately compares Thunder Gulch to American Pharaoh. It isn't designed to. It's designed to compare a shipper from Belmont to the local horse at Santa Anita.


I was referring to the way Beyer changed the speed figure methodology. I agree with you that comparisons of different years and different horses is not what Beyer numbers was supposed to indicate.

Greyfox
05-05-2015, 11:09 PM
That STILL, however, will not produce a speed figure system that accurately compares Thunder Gulch to American Pharaoh. It isn't designed to. It's designed to compare a shipper from Belmont to the local horse at Santa Anita.

Thunder Gulch 1995 Beyer 108 ( raw time 201.2)

American Pharoah 2015 Beyer 105 or less ( raw time 2.03:02)

If he didn't have speed figures, we can still compare.

thespaah
05-05-2015, 11:19 PM
It could be that our horses aren't as well bred to run 10F as they used to be.

It could be they are less prepared to run that far so soon given how lightly raced they are.

It could be changes in drug policy (no steroids for example).

I do a lot of PAR research. I've found that Beyers for Grade 1 horses in general are running 5-6 points lower than they used to in the steroid and prior era. I've always felt that speed figures are NOT a very good way to make historical comparisons because surfaces change, training methods change, drug policy changes, and it's very hard to control for subtle figure drift over the years.
Lets look at the number of 10F races restricted to 3yo's...Exclude 3 and up..
To my knowledge, there are two. The Kentucky Derby and the Travers...
Now, on average how many per season make BOTH of these events?
I also happen to believe that not only are trainers and connections eschewing the classic distances, route races( 8.5f and longer) are less than 25% of the average race program. In fact even at the most premier meets there are days where the majority of races on the card are sprints.
Years ago, for 3yo and up, race distances of shorter than 6 f were almost unheard of...Now, 5.5F races for older horses are commonplace.
Boring.

cj
05-05-2015, 11:54 PM
That's quite true, but speed figure makers take that into account by then running comparisons of speed figures at different tracks and adjusting pars.

That STILL, however, will not produce a speed figure system that accurately compares Thunder Gulch to American Pharaoh. It isn't designed to. It's designed to compare a shipper from Belmont to the local horse at Santa Anita.

I am one of those speed figure makers, and have been for more than 30 years now. I know how it is done, which is why I was pointing out the 10,000 flaw. I discovered this about a week after I started making figures.

The second part, I don't think such a system will ever exist, not an accurate one. But you can compare the level of dominance, that is about the best you can hope for in my opinion. People still argue over humans in sports from different generations. Nobody really knows the answer, and it won't be any different with horses.

cnollfan
05-06-2015, 12:23 AM
Yea, but he got left at the start like Materiality, bulled his way through the entire field, got into a fast paced duel with For the Moment, and won with something in reserve. Maybe not a great figure, but an amazing race. ;)

Agree! Not a strong field, not a big fig, but a remarkable performance.

The tentpole that wasn't supposed to move, moved due to slots inflated purses. Drugs have always been there but that chart pretty well matches the proliferation of slots fed purses and thus runners with the baseline 70 par (10K claimers I think) are now 15K and 20K claimers of past years, thus depressing the scale at the top.

Agree. Big purses for lower-priced claimers have flattened the class differences from top to bottom.

Tom
05-06-2015, 07:33 AM
Funny story.
Back when Qurin's first book about figures came out, I went through all the charts for FL for a year and a half and got all the $10,000 open sprint races listed to make my baseline. There were 6 races, and all were run by the same horse! ($10K was our feature back then).

Grits
05-06-2015, 12:53 PM
I am one of those speed figure makers, and have been for more than 30 years now. I know how it is done, which is why I was pointing out the 10,000 flaw. I discovered this about a week after I started making figures.

The second part, I don't think such a system will ever exist, not an accurate one. But you can compare the level of dominance, that is about the best you can hope for in my opinion. People still argue over humans in sports from different generations. Nobody really knows the answer, and it won't be any different with horses.

Several fine points have been brought up in this 3 page thread, certainly some of which are Dilanesp's regarding the limitations of speed figures across eras, and too, Ralph's question regarding raw time and Raybo's thoughts.

In the second quote, rightly, you state that we still argue over humans in sports from different generations. But, when it all comes down to the bottom line do not most of these arguments have a raw time factor at their base? Not a speed figure or a pace figure? ... Somehow, doesn't time still matter in the historical sense?

This morning in your folder that was created weeks ago, you have asked others to join you in discussing your opinion of the Derby's pace--now four days out. This, after you've once again, reminded others that you've "been making speed figures for 30 years and you know", etc.

Its surprising that you, of those involved in our sport, are becoming the least self effacing figure. These days you rarely, if ever, concede that others views may not only be valid, but too, they could be correct.

It's hard to argue with excellence. I'm one of your greatest champions as you know. Still, others opinions aren't always less than yours.

cj
05-06-2015, 01:11 PM
Several fine points have been brought up in this 3 page thread, certainly some of which are Dilanesp's regarding the limitations of speed figures across eras, and too, Ralph's question regarding raw time and Raybo's thoughts.

In the second quote, rightly, you state that we still argue over humans in sports from different generations. But, when it all comes down to the bottom line do not most of these arguments have a raw time factor at their base? Not a speed figure or a pace figure? ... Somehow, doesn't time still matter in the historical sense?

This morning in your folder that was created weeks ago, you have asked others to join you in discussing your opinion of the Derby's pace--now four days out. This, after you've once again, reminded others that you've "been making speed figures for 30 years and you know", etc.

Its surprising that you, of those involved in our sport, are becoming the least self effacing figure. These days you rarely, if ever, concede that others views may not only be valid, but too, they could be correct.

It's hard to argue with excellence. I'm one of your greatest champions as you know. Still, others opinions aren't always less than yours.

I think you misunderstood my point. I value everyone's opinion here. Dilanesp stated pretty much as fact that the $10,000 claiming being equal across circuits was the way to go. I know from experience it is not. As soon as I did this, he moved the goalposts, saying that he knew this and going deeper.

I'm sure he did know, but if so, why state his opinion as fact the first time?

As for the pace thing, I'm fascinated by it. If I didn't want to hear the opinion of others, I wouldn't have asked for them. Some will agree, some won't, and it is good either way. Debate is a good thing. You learn a lot that way.

Grits
05-06-2015, 01:22 PM
This is part of the problem, Cj, you don't realize that your point wasn't the only one in the thread...I mentioned others aside from Dilanesp. :faint:

Others discussing pace with you are venturing forth at their own peril. You're unbending. Too, no one likes to have such crap as you pulled here thrown in their face.

I've disagreed with you on something, trying to get you to see from an outside view...I'll catch hell for doing so.

cj
05-06-2015, 01:33 PM
This is part of the problem, Cj, you don't realize that your point wasn't the only one in the thread...I mentioned others aside from Dilanesp. :faint:

Others discussing pace with you are venturing forth at their own peril. You're unbending. Too, no one likes to have such crap as you pulled here thrown in their face.

I've disagreed with you on something, trying to get you to see from an outside view...I'll catch hell for doing so.

I only discuss things that interest me. Comparing raw times from different generations isn't one of them, so I stay out of it. I feel that tracks are much slower now than in the past for safety reasons. Others may disagree, and that is fine.

That said, I'll take your comments constructively. The written word doesn't always translate well to how somebody actually feels about something. I can assure you that your opinion of how I feel about what others have written is off base. Everything I've learned about racing has roots in what somebody else has written.

Grits
05-06-2015, 02:28 PM
I only discuss things that interest me. Comparing raw times from different generations isn't one of them, so I stay out of it. I feel that tracks are much slower now than in the past for safety reasons. Others may disagree, and that is fine.

That said, I'll take your comments constructively. The written word doesn't always translate well to how somebody actually feels about something. I can assure you that your opinion of how I feel about what others have written is off base. Everything I've learned about racing has roots in what somebody else has written.

Unless this thread is buried this afternoon, instead of assuming Dilanesp's words as pretty much presented as fact", maybe he'll return and speak for himself. This would be the fair thing.

You nor I haven't concrete knowledge of his experience with betting or creating speed figures.

We benefit from those who sincerely take the time to teach. And there are many such individuals, here, including yourself. But, at some point, the arguing becomes about ourselves. We become infallible. It services little aside from our ego. .... Like I said, I'll catch hell disagreeing with you, but I can handle it.

ronsmac
05-06-2015, 04:16 PM
It's a little odd that horses appear slower based on Beyers than they were 20yrs ago, but Doug Salvatore just said horses6are faster now than they were 20 yrs ago according to thorograph.

cj
05-06-2015, 04:20 PM
It's a little odd that horses appear slower based on Beyers than they were 20yrs ago, but Doug Salvatore just said horses6are faster now than they were 20 yrs ago according to thorograph.

Way faster. It is interesting to discuss. Figure drift (in either direction) is very tough but luckily doesn't mean much for bettors.

raybo
05-06-2015, 04:21 PM
Unless this thread is buried this afternoon, instead of assuming Dilanesp's words as pretty much presented as fact", maybe he'll return and speak for himself. This would be the fair thing.

You nor I haven't concrete knowledge of his experience with betting or creating speed figures.

We benefit from those who sincerely take the time to teach. And there are many such individuals, here, including yourself. But, at some point, the arguing becomes about ourselves. We become infallible. It services little aside from our ego. .... Like I said, I'll catch hell disagreeing with you, but I can handle it.

"In my opinion", "IMO", "I think", "I believe". Those kinds of remarks go a long way in making for acceptable postings. There are many here who do not add those remarks to their postings, and that leads to animosity from others that assume those postings are presented as absolute truth. And when you respond to them, they either backpedal, without admitting anything, or they come back with "I post my opinions assuming the reader will automatically assume they are only my opinion", or some such nonsense. If you have read many of my posts you have undoubtedly noticed that they are filled with "IMO"s, "I think"s, "I believe"s, etc.. I don't want to present things as fact unless they really are. And, if everyone here would take the same stance a lot of the misunderstanding and unnecessary arguing, posturing, and chest pounding would not happen so often. Just my opinion! ;)

raybo
05-06-2015, 04:29 PM
It's a little odd that horses appear slower based on Beyers than they were 20yrs ago, but Doug Salvatore just said horses6are faster now than they were 20 yrs ago according to thorograph.

What does that tell you about Beyer and his figures? Of course horses are generally faster today than years ago, more of them have been bred for speed than in the past. Tracks have also changed over the years, as have tactics. Horses are being rested more today than in the past, making them fresher and more able to produce their better performances, in relation to their strengths (generally shorter distances at higher speeds, spread further apart).

classhandicapper
05-06-2015, 04:53 PM
IMO, if you want to compare top horses across generations, you are better off looking at accomplishments. Look at who beat who, by how much, with what level of consistently, with what trips, with what level of visual dominance, with what versatility etc...

Ask what special talents they showed when up against it from a trip perspective etc..?

If you are any good at that, you will outperform speed figures in high level races anyway because the pecking order is clear and the variance in performance from race to race is lower than at other class levels.

No method is perfect, but that cuts through about a dozen figure issues that wreak havoc on a day to day basis, let alone another dozen that wreak havoc year to year.

For other types of races, figures are probably better because the classing system is a mess, performances all over the place, and sometimes you simply don't have much information.

For the record, I am certain Beyer is well aware of the impact of inflation on claiming prices. I'm also certain he has a detailed system for checking track to track relationships that also includes tracking sprint to route figures, route to sprint figures etc...

He wrote an article about shrinking Beyers in long routes (maybe it was about the Belmont?). I can't recall the specifics. If I can find it, I'll post it. He has his theories.

whodoyoulike
05-06-2015, 04:54 PM
It's a little odd that horses appear slower based on Beyers than they were 20yrs ago, but Doug Salvatore just said horses6are faster now than they were 20 yrs ago according to thorograph.

Whether this is correct or not, how does this knowledge affect or help your handicapping for today's or tomorrow's race?

classhandicapper
05-06-2015, 04:56 PM
Of course horses are generally faster today than years ago, more of them have been bred for speed than in the past.

They are probably faster, but can they sustain that speed as well over longer distances?

I don't have any objective data to prove this, but I think there is anecdotal evidence that the gap between Grade 1 sprinters and Grade 1 routers (which IMO used to be fairly large years ago) has narrowed.

Grits
05-06-2015, 05:25 PM
"In my opinion", "IMO", "I think", "I believe". Those kinds of remarks go a long way in making for acceptable postings. There are many here who do not add those remarks to their postings, and that leads to animosity from others that assume those postings are presented as absolute truth. And when you respond to them, they either backpedal, without admitting anything, or they come back with "I post my opinions assuming the reader will automatically assume they are only my opinion", or some such nonsense. If you have read many of my posts you have undoubtedly noticed that they are filled with "IMO"s, "I think"s, "I believe"s, etc.. I don't want to present things as fact unless they really are. And, if everyone here would take the same stance a lot of the misunderstanding and unnecessary arguing, posturing, and chest pounding would not happen so often. Just my opinion! ;)

And Raybo, this is just one of the reasons you're respected. You write well, and you take the time to help others. Such things matter. When we become lofty and all knowing....we're never more boring. When we teach, we give to others. I've learned much at PA. ;)

Grits
05-06-2015, 05:29 PM
Whether this is correct or not, how does this knowledge affect or help your handicapping for today's or tomorrow's race?

One gets the feeling you may know the answer to your question. ;)

raybo
05-06-2015, 05:41 PM
For the record, I am certain Beyer is well aware of the impact of inflation on claiming prices. I'm also certain he has a detailed system for checking track to track relationships that also includes tracking sprint to route figures, route to sprint figures etc...

He wrote an article about shrinking Beyers in long routes (maybe it was about the Belmont?). I can't recall the specifics. If I can find it, I'll post it. He has his theories.

I'm sure he does, most of us do, but do his figures accurately reflect them? I would venture to say that CJ doesn't necessarily think they do. Of course, players that are devout Beyer figure users, and have used them for years and years, would probably have internalized the evolution of them along the way, and if they are still using them successfully today, have evolved, with and compensated for, that evolution, or lack thereof, in their own way.

dilanesp
05-06-2015, 05:48 PM
Unless this thread is buried this afternoon, instead of assuming Dilanesp's words as pretty much presented as fact", maybe he'll return and speak for himself. This would be the fair thing.

You nor I haven't concrete knowledge of his experience with betting or creating speed figures.

We benefit from those who sincerely take the time to teach. And there are many such individuals, here, including yourself. But, at some point, the arguing becomes about ourselves. We become infallible. It services little aside from our ego. .... Like I said, I'll catch hell disagreeing with you, but I can handle it.

I indicated that in formulating a speed figure system, the prices of claiming races is baked in because the first step one does in equivalencing tracks is to use claiming prices, and because of that, speed figures will drift over time due to inflation.

I didn't include all the details that of course, speed figure makers over time adjust the par times and relationships among tracks because the class levels are not actually consistent from track to track, because it wasn't really relevant to my point. But when someone raised the issue, I indicated it did not change my point.

I don't see where I "backed off" anything. Speed figures aren't designed to make historical comparisons. They are designed to make comparisons among horses running right now, and they are likely to drift over time. One reason they will drift is because inflation or deflation of claiming prices will change the quality of horse that runs (for instance) a par of 83 in a $10K claimer over time.

I agree with class handicapper that if you were really going to come up with a system for historical comparison, you would use stakes races anyway, and I also agree with cj that there's no way in the end to come up with a good system for accurate historical comparison.

The only way to avoid what I am being accused of would be to include tons of caveats and explanations in every post. Which seems silly, especially given my posts are long enough as it is! :)

raybo
05-06-2015, 05:50 PM
They are probably faster, but can they sustain that speed as well over longer distances?

I don't have any objective data to prove this, but I think there is anecdotal evidence that the gap between Grade 1 sprinters and Grade 1 routers (which IMO used to be fairly large years ago) has narrowed.

That's not what I said, I said they are bred for speed, I didn't say that speed could be carried as well over distance. I personally believe that, generally, horses are faster today, but can't carry that speed over distance as well as those from years past that were bred with stamina being weighted higher than it is today. Today, with horses running less frequently and being bred for shorter distances, the emphasis is necessarily on availability of proper race types that suit the horse, so if there are more shorter races than longer ones, they would want to take advantage of having horses that are suited for the more frequently occurring shorter distance races.

raybo
05-06-2015, 06:01 PM
And Raybo, this is just one of the reasons you're respected. You write well, and you take the time to help others. Such things matter. When we become lofty and all knowing....we're never more boring. When we teach, we give to others. I've learned much at PA. ;)

Aw - thanks! But, I certainly have my own faults :bang: . There is something to be said for groups of people interacting with one another while never displaying the more unsavory arguments and snide remarks so common in such gatherings. Unfortunately, on a site as popular, and with such a large member base, as this one, there are certainly going to be a number of those members who just don't get it, the real world value of courteous interaction and mutual respect thing.

classhandicapper
05-06-2015, 06:56 PM
I'm sure he does, most of us do, but do his figures accurately reflect them?

He has to speak for himself.

Here's the article I was referring to earlier. This one was about the slow times in the Belmont, but I vaguely remember another one that mentioned the Derby that was along the same lines. I could be just be mistaken about that.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/othersports/american-thoroughbreds-are-no-longer-bred-to-go-the-distance-in-the-belmont-stakes/2014/06/03/0dfb13ac-eb11-11e3-9f5c-9075d5508f0a_story.html

Grits
05-06-2015, 09:46 PM
Thank you for coming back to reply, Dilane. It's appreciated. ;)

Gentlemen, forgive if I go off topic for a moment....

My local news, here, in Carolina had breaking news tonight at 6pm of tornadoes. I turned to the Weather Channel and there are tornadoes all over Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska for the last several hours. They've touched down in OKC, in Norman (where Maddog lives), in Moore (where Cj and Elsie live) and throughout other areas. Much rain and flooding.

..... On their twitter pages, Elsie and Cj, both, noted heading into their underground shelter 3 hours ago. Its going to be a long night for them, as they're under a tornado warning again, right now, in Moore. Please, let's keep them all in our thoughts and prayers this evening.

raybo
05-06-2015, 10:08 PM
Thank you for coming back to reply, Dilane. It's appreciated. ;)

Gentlemen, forgive if I go off topic for a moment....

My local news, here, in Carolina had breaking news tonight at 6pm of tornadoes. I turned to the Weather Channel and there are tornadoes all over Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska for the last several hours. They've touched down in OKC, in Norman (where Maddog lives), in Moore (where Cj and Elsie live) and throughout other areas. Much rain and flooding.

..... On their twitter pages, Elsie and Cj, both, noted heading into their underground shelter 3 hours ago. Its going to be a long night for them, as they're under a tornado warning again, right now, in Moore. Please, let's keep them all in our thoughts and prayers this evening.

Thanks for that notice! Not that I'm wishing anything bad on the people up there, but I sure hope that weather doesn't decide to come straight south! I'm almost directly south of Moore/OKC etc..

We'll keep all those guys in our prayers!!

mountainman
05-07-2015, 09:44 AM
Thank you for coming back to reply, Dilane. It's appreciated. ;)

Gentlemen, forgive if I go off topic for a moment....

My local news, here, in Carolina had breaking news tonight at 6pm of tornadoes. I turned to the Weather Channel and there are tornadoes all over Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska for the last several hours. They've touched down in OKC, in Norman (where Maddog lives), in Moore (where Cj and Elsie live) and throughout other areas. Much rain and flooding.

..... On their twitter pages, Elsie and Cj, both, noted heading into their underground shelter 3 hours ago. Its going to be a long night for them, as they're under a tornado warning again, right now, in Moore. Please, let's keep them all in our thoughts and prayers this evening.

Hope everyone is ok. Was once in a tornado. Unseasonably hot day, late spring. Emerged from mall, the sky was a dark blue I'd never seen. Will never forget farmer type in bib overalls, seated in pickup, catching my eye and simply shaking his head. 5 min later I'm driving through a semi-rural neighborhood and 50 foot pines bend to the ground. Phone poles uproot and cartwheel end over end. A barn crumbles. It sounds like a jet engine, and the wind seems angry.

I quickly realize that it's not the wind, but things the wind throws that can kill me. It seems to gain force by bouncing off the ground. No fear, nor did my life pass in front of me. Just the desperate thought that there must be some action that can save me. I exit my car and run toward a small wooden house. It flies away, like the wizard of oz. Or perhaps disintegrates. I turn and run, right out of the maelstrom.

The twister was extremely rare for western pa, and would go on to tear up Mt Washington, an incredibly cool, and somewhat historic section of pgh that overlooks the city from across the river.

Compared to storms that besiege the Midwest, It was not powerful. I'm sure. But I've seen a tornado in action, and was fortunate to escape unscathed.

cj
05-07-2015, 10:26 AM
Thanks everyone, we're fine here, was a very long night with rain like I've never seen (and I've seen some rain!), tornadoes, hail, wind, etc. At one point there were even exotic animals on the loose in a nearby town including tigers. Crazy, eh?

The building where my wife works is a total loss, so she's pretty upset. She works for the power company so seeing all the damage this morning brought back a lot of memories of the things she had seen during the clean up after the May 20th tornado a few years ago, not to mention seeing a lot of the work she had done over the last several years just gone and knowing it all has to be built over again. But nobody was hurt that I've heard, stuff can always be replaced.

I'll be honest, I'm getting a little sick of this stuff. I may not be long for OKC.

Grits
05-07-2015, 11:00 AM
You all are dealing with this annually...and it's awful each time that you have to do so. It's frustrating that Elsie lost so much of her work...glad that all is well, otherwise.

If the family's favorite NBA team doesn't come back well with the new coach? "Short here and long gone" is possible when one knows other cities have much to offer in sports.

I hope Maddog and his family are well, too. And anyone else in the region that I may have missed.

Cozy in an underground shelter with three dogs, surely. :lol:

MountainMan, the farmer knew!! Farmer's always know these things. Glad that you were not hurt...

Greyfox
05-07-2015, 11:07 AM
I'll be honest, I'm getting a little sick of this stuff. I may not be long for OKC.

You're a brave man to stay there.
I'd move in a heart beat from any tornado alley.
Why risk losing your wife and family to that horrendous force of nature which comes several times annually?

cj
05-07-2015, 11:26 AM
You all are dealing with this annually...and it's awful each time that you have to do so. It's frustrating that Elsie lost so much of her work...glad that all is well, otherwise.

If the family's favorite NBA team doesn't come back well with the new coach? "Short here and long gone" is possible when one knows other cities have much to offer in sports.

I hope Maddog and his family are well, too. And anyone else in the region that I may have missed.

Cozy in an underground shelter with three dogs, surely. :lol:

MountainMan, the farmer knew!! Farmer's always know these things. Glad that you were not hurt...

I love sports, but I can assure you I wouldn't ever base where I lived on them :) I just wouldn't move to a state without racing or the ability to bet on them from home.

I think Mike (Maddog) was far enough south to be ok, but I'm not positive on that, hope he is ok.

The three dogs were actually really good on the shelter, anxious at first but they settled in just fine after a few minutes.

JustRalph
05-07-2015, 12:02 PM
Imagine if Dorothy could have tweeted from Oz........

CJ has it all over Dorothy and L. Frank Baum

I would invite you to Texas.......but........

cj
05-07-2015, 01:01 PM
Imagine if Dorothy could have tweeted from Oz........

CJ has it all over Dorothy and L. Frank Baum

I would invite you to Texas.......but........

Houston is on our radar, great weather, just the occasional hurricane...oh yeah, and that betting issue from home.

Grits
05-07-2015, 01:25 PM
Imagine if Dorothy could have tweeted from Oz........

CJ has it all over Dorothy and L. Frank Baum

I would invite you to Texas.......but........

Last night, he tweeted this one, "the weather is so bad we can't even loot!"

This morning, she tweeted this one, "Mother Nature is one crazy bitch."

:lol::lol::lol:

Can you imagine 3 hours with these two in a storm shelter?

Add a couple of bottles of wine? Hell, I'll drive to OKC next time things get dicey. I could use the laughs.... I'm solid with hurricanes, I'm bound to be able to do tornadoes.

raybo
05-07-2015, 03:44 PM
Houston is on our radar, great weather, just the occasional hurricane...oh yeah, and that betting issue from home.

LOL, I think I'd risk tornados before moving to Houston, constantly in a state of construction, especially the highways, and then there is the heavy frequent rain, humidity, heat, and ------- hurricanes! :eek:

Cholly
05-07-2015, 04:10 PM
LOL, I think I'd risk tornados before moving to Houston, constantly in a state of construction, especially the highways, and then there is the heavy frequent rain, humidity, heat, and ------- hurricanes! :eek:
When I lived in Dallas, the common refrain about Houston was, "It's not the heat, it's the stupidity..."

raybo
05-07-2015, 04:13 PM
When I lived in Dallas, the common refrain about Houston was, "It's not the heat, it's the stupidity..."

Don't know about that, but IMO, there are much better places to live.

thespaah
05-07-2015, 08:43 PM
Thanks everyone, we're fine here, was a very long night with rain like I've never seen (and I've seen some rain!), tornadoes, hail, wind, etc. At one point there were even exotic animals on the loose in a nearby town including tigers. Crazy, eh?

The building where my wife works is a total loss, so she's pretty upset. She works for the power company so seeing all the damage this morning brought back a lot of memories of the things she had seen during the clean up after the May 20th tornado a few years ago, not to mention seeing a lot of the work she had done over the last several years just gone and knowing it all has to be built over again. But nobody was hurt that I've heard, stuff can always be replaced.

I'll be honest, I'm getting a little sick of this stuff. I may not be long for OKC.
Seems your city has a friggin target on it.
A week does not go by where the OKC area is not under some kind of severe weather advisory, watch or warning.
It has to be frustrating.
Hopefully, your house has a basement.
Stay safe!