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ChristianBlake
05-04-2015, 10:50 PM
I have two books on Amazon, How To Pick Long Shots and How To Win At Horse Racing. I'd like to get more reviews for both.

If you're interested in a free copy of each book in exchange for an honest review posted on Amazon, please send me a message, or post in here.

You'll need either a Kindle device, or the free "kindle reader app" which is available for most every device/OS.

How To Pick Long Shots is written for intermediate/advanced players, and How To Win At Horse Racing is designed for beginners. Please keep that in mind when reading the books and posting your reviews.

ChristianBlake
05-04-2015, 11:32 PM
Just to clarify...although How To Win At Horse Racing is designed for beginners, I would definitely be interested in reviews from more experienced players who could give an honest assessment as to how valuable the info would be for a beginner.

garyscpa
05-05-2015, 08:11 AM
I'll give it a shot at both.

punteray
05-05-2015, 01:27 PM
I would like to give them a GO

ChristianBlake
05-05-2015, 03:39 PM
Thanks for your interest!

You'll need a Kindle device OR the free Kindle Reader Application (it's free, google it).

Both books will be free to download through Amazon on Monday, May 11th. As long as you have a Kindle or the free Kindle Reader Application you can get the books. Visit Amazon and search for "How To Pick Long Shots by Christian Blake". You'll be able to download that book, and you'll be able to download How To Win At Horse Racing as well.

Please remember that How To Win At Horse Racing is written for beginners, so read/review it with that audience in mind.

All reviews will be greatly appreciated.

I've already received some fantastic input from players about the free pace numbers I've been posting in the selections section. Thanks to everyone for helping me improve the layout and design of my pace sheets!

mrroyboy
05-05-2015, 08:19 PM
Thank you. I will download it.

Sinner369
05-06-2015, 12:31 AM
I have two books on Amazon, How To Pick Long Shots and How To Win At Horse Racing. I'd like to get more reviews for both.

If you're interested in a free copy of each book in exchange for an honest review posted on Amazon, please send me a message, or post in here.

You'll need either a Kindle device, or the free "kindle reader app" which is available for most every device/OS.

How To Pick Long Shots is written for intermediate/advanced players, and How To Win At Horse Racing is designed for beginners. Please keep that in mind when reading the books and posting your reviews.

I am a long time harness player and late pace and last half has always being a domain (or staple) of harness handicappers.

It will be interesting to see how you can use it for thoroughbreds.

coastkid
05-06-2015, 01:14 AM
Would like to take you up on your offer. I will objectively study and give you my honest opinion.

ChristianBlake
05-06-2015, 11:18 AM
It was easy to build formulas and establish comparable pace numbers for harness because of the 1 mile distance, but it took many years before I figured out how to do the same thing with thoroughbreds. With harness, there are multiple sections of pace within the race that can be analyzed. The same is true for thoroughbreds, but it's much more difficult to discern.

These books are about common sense handicapping with the DRF, so pace/speed numbers really aren't discussed. I designed them to be informative for anyone, not just the number junkies (like me). A player can read How To Pick Long Shots and then skim the DRF, looking for specific scenarios, and find two or three horses a day that fit one of the descriptions in the book. This type of info is particularly valuable for those who play the multi-race exotics (pick 3s, pick 4s, etc). It's always frustrating when a 40/1 flyer kicks you out of an exotic pool.

Sinner369
05-06-2015, 12:07 PM
Would like to take you up on your offer. I will objectively study and give you my honest opinion.

Since I am a pace handicapper for harness racing............it will be interesting to see how you translate "that" to the thoroughbreds.

Count me in on your offer!

Pensacola Pete
05-06-2015, 02:02 PM
Is the general idea that the concepts in your book will work better if the reader buys your proprietary ratings?

ChristianBlake
05-06-2015, 02:12 PM
The books aren't related to my pace numbers.

The books were written in early 2013. Other than a few editorial revisions, the books have remained intact. Although I've been using my pace numbers for 20+ years, I only recently decided to share them with other handicappers (and to be honest, I'm having more fun sharing these numbers and watching other people make money than I was when I kept this info to myself!).

So, to reiterate, the long shot book is about common sense handicapping; scenarios to look for, situations to be aware of where you can find a horse at a price. The book for beginners is a systematic approach to handicapping; simple things first, and more advanced concepts as you progress in skill.

cutchemist42
05-06-2015, 02:26 PM
Love handicapping books, I would read both and give a review.

Pensacola Pete
05-08-2015, 02:14 AM
Fair enough. If the offer is still open, I'll read both and give them an honest review.

The books aren't related to my pace numbers.

The books were written in early 2013. Other than a few editorial revisions, the books have remained intact. Although I've been using my pace numbers for 20+ years, I only recently decided to share them with other handicappers (and to be honest, I'm having more fun sharing these numbers and watching other people make money than I was when I kept this info to myself!).

So, to reiterate, the long shot book is about common sense handicapping; scenarios to look for, situations to be aware of where you can find a horse at a price. The book for beginners is a systematic approach to handicapping; simple things first, and more advanced concepts as you progress in skill.

ChristianBlake
05-08-2015, 01:24 PM
Yes, the offer is still open.

Just remember the free download date is Monday, May 11th. Any time during the day, you'll have to visit Amazon and search for my book, and then click the "BUY" button (which will say FREE).

Both books will be free to download on that day.

Thank you in advance for taking the time to read my books, and for your Amazon reviews.

Sinner369
05-11-2015, 11:57 AM
My review on "How to Pick Long Shots":

I like the contents of the book.......it's probably the first book I read on the actual details involved in looking for longshots for thoroughbreds.

The author systematically defines three types of longshot possibilities to look for in thoroughbreds and they are well defined. I am sure their are other types of long shots but each individual will have their own patterns (I do for harness).

I am mainly a harness bettor and the steps involved for finding long shots is close to what I use to handicap harness horses.........especially trip notes!

To me, the book is well worth the price.......get it for yourself.

jk3521
05-11-2015, 01:26 PM
My review on "How to Pick Long Shots":

I like the contents of the book.......it's probably the first book I read on the actual details involved in looking for longshots for thoroughbreds.

The author systematically defines three types of longshot possibilities to look for in thoroughbreds and they are well defined. I am sure their are other types of long shots but each individual will have their own patterns (I do for harness).

I am mainly a harness bettor and the steps involved for finding long shots is close to what I use to handicap harness horses.........especially trip notes!

To me, the book is well worth the price.......get it for yourself.
I think the author wants the book reviewed on Amazon.com.

thaskalos
05-11-2015, 02:03 PM
I think the author wants the book reviewed on Amazon.com.
I will do the author a favor...and refrain from reviewing his books on Amazon.

thaskalos
05-11-2015, 02:20 PM
Yes, the offer is still open.

Just remember the free download date is Monday, May 11th. Any time during the day, you'll have to visit Amazon and search for my book, and then click the "BUY" button (which will say FREE).

Both books will be free to download on that day.

Thank you in advance for taking the time to read my books, and for your Amazon reviews.
Christian...may I ask you a question?

You honestly believe that a horse who finished second by a length in a MSW race is the equivalent of a horse who finished second by a length in a $5,000 maiden claimer?

ChristianBlake
05-11-2015, 03:26 PM
For me, in a wagering situation, the Maiden Claimer is worth much, much more. But then again, I play for ROI. Betting 8/5 favorites gets you nowhere in the long run, and turns into a money churn with negative ROI.

It really depends on what your wagering goals are. I focus on profit. That is #1 for me. Win rate is irrelevant. (Also, the book is about finding value plays, not obvious favorites.)

In the Maiden scenario, that 8/5 MSW might win 30% of the time, but that claimer will win too, probably at a lower % of the time, but when it wins, it will pop at 40/1. I'll take those tickets all day long, and stay far, far away from the 8/5.

And, if you hate the book, go ahead and post an honest review on Amazon.

All Amazon reviews are appreciated! :)

jk3521
05-11-2015, 03:58 PM
Christian...may I ask you a question?

You honestly believe that a horse who finished second by a length in a MSW race is the equivalent of a horse who finished second by a length in a $5,000 maiden claimer?


It's" How to PICK Longshots", not " How to PICK WINNING LONGSHOTS" :D

thaskalos
05-11-2015, 04:16 PM
For me, in a wagering situation, the Maiden Claimer is worth much, much more. But then again, I play for ROI. Betting 8/5 favorites gets you nowhere in the long run, and turns into a money churn with negative ROI.

It really depends on what your wagering goals are. I focus on profit. That is #1 for me. Win rate is irrelevant. (Also, the book is about finding value plays, not obvious favorites.)

In the Maiden scenario, that 8/5 MSW might win 30% of the time, but that claimer will win too, probably at a lower % of the time, but when it wins, it will pop at 40/1. I'll take those tickets all day long, and stay far, far away from the 8/5.

And, if you hate the book, go ahead and post an honest review on Amazon.

All Amazon reviews are appreciated! :)

You were generous in letting us read your book for free, so...I can't bring myself to write a negative review on Amazon. But I will tell you this here:

There is nothing in either one of your two books which will allow the horse player to SURVIVE...much less profit in this game.

I will give you a couple of examples of what I mean:

You say at the very beginning of your book How To Win At Horseracing:

"When it comes to managing your bankroll, always remember what I call The Five Percent Rule. The rule is easy to follow: you must never wager more than 5% of your total bankroll on a selection. If you have $100 to wager on horse racing, your wagers surrounding one particular horse should never exceed $5. By following that guideline, you can be an average handicapper and still break even or turn a profit over the long haul."


In another part of the same book, where you are addressing the significance of the "distance factor" in handicapping, you write:

"From what I've come to understand about horse racing, the most significant portion of a race is the last couple of furlongs. Quite often, the jockeys will set a leisurely pace around the track, and then it's a mad dash for the last quarter mile. As long as a horse has decent sprint ability for at least a few furlongs, I'll consider it a potential winner at any distance."


In no way can a 5% betting guideline allow the average handicapper to break even or turn a profit in the long run. The only way that the "average player" can survive at the track is by greatly improving his handicapping and betting skills. The 5% betting limit might allow him to remain in action a little longer than he otherwise would, but, if he remains an "average handicapper"...then he will lose his money in due time just the same. Betting advice cannot turn losing players into winners.

As far as the distance factor is concerned, it is dangerous to assume that any horse with decent sprint ability is a potential winner at any distance...and any serious player will be quick to point that out to you.

In your longshot book, you advise against the use of speed figures in handicapping...but the reason that you provide is questionable, to say the least. You say that speed figures are misleading, and that it's not unusual for a horse with figures of 90 to lose to a horse with figures of 60. Now...if you had said that you ignored speed figures because everybody is using them and they depress the odds, then I might see your point. But I just can't accept the reason that you have chosen to provide. You can't place the 60 horse in the same level as the 90 horse.

You say that you are a winning player...and I have no real reason to doubt you. But I can state unequivocally that there is no way in the world that you are winning solely by using the advice that you are offering in your two books.

Sinner369
05-11-2015, 05:30 PM
It's" How to PICK Longshots", not " How to PICK WINNING LONGSHOTS" :D

I have to agree with the above..............why are these horses called "Long shots" in the first place?

Thaskalos .....you are looking for a guarantee winning long shot and as we all know there is no such "thing".

Greyfox
05-11-2015, 05:35 PM
Thaskalos .....you are looking for a guarantee winning long shot and as we all know there is no such "thing".

No. Thaskalos is looking for good advice about longshots that match the promises of the author. So far he hasn't found that advice.

thaskalos
05-11-2015, 05:37 PM
I have to agree with the above..............why are these horses called "Long shots" in the first place?

Thaskalos .....you are looking for a guarantee winning long shot and as we all know there is no such "thing".

No...I am pointing out what I consider to be erroneous advice. And I didn't have to stop where I did; I could easily have kept going.

It's alright to say that a book is for the beginning players...but wrong advice is wrong advice -- no matter to WHOM you direct it. And the longshot book is advertised as a book for the "intermediate and advanced player"...which is a gross exaggeration.

mrroyboy
05-11-2015, 06:23 PM
Ok I downloaded the book from Amazon. I will read it and give my honest opinion. Thank you for making it available. :ThmbUp:

ChristianBlake
05-11-2015, 06:35 PM
5% is an aggressive wager, a large wager. While I do make 5% wagers, I mostly stick around 2% to 3%. ANY adherence to a strict wagering percentage, whether it be 2% or 5%, will help the average player who follows no wagering guidelines. At 2%, you can lose 50 times before your bankroll runs dry. Play favorites and that's an inevitable end, even with a decent win rate. Play long shots and you can hit a 50/1 horse on that last wager and you're even again.

Re: sprint ability/fractional call handicapping vs traditional theories

It sounds like you handicap a horse's potential based on the sum of its last performance (like using the Beyer fig as a factor). While there's nothing wrong with that, itís not how I pick horses. I focus on fractional performance instead.

For example, if a horse was near the lead at the 1/2 mile call during a contested pace, it's a play in my book (even more so if itís dropping class). And if it lost by 20 lengths in that last race, great! A 20 length loss will scare away players and further increase my payout.

Debating the value of fractional speed is pointless. Horses with sprint ability win every day at every track at varying distances. They defy conventional handicapping logic and, more often than not, they pay at a price.

Re: handicapping goals

My perspective is based on profit, not win rate. I donít go to the track to compete for win rate. Itís all about money. From what you're focusing on (conventional handicapping wisdom), it sounds like you are more interested in picking the winner than producing a profit. If that's the case, there's nothing to debate. We have different viewpoints and different goals.

My biggest long shot for 2014 was a horse named Standing Point ($162). That horse defied all conventional handicapping logic and still won. I would have never picked a horse like that by following traditional handicapping theories.

Traditional handicapping = low payouts

Fractional handicapping = fat payouts (and confused traditional handicappers)

This entire conversation is a common debate I have with traditional handicappers. New theories are always unsettling to old guard. And, in reality, there's nothing to debate. People handicap differently, and that's OK.

ReplayRandall
05-11-2015, 07:13 PM
My perspective is based on profit, not win rate. I donít go to the track to compete for win rate. Itís all about money. From what you're focusing on (conventional handicapping wisdom), it sounds like you are more interested in picking the winner than producing a profit. If that's the case, there's nothing to debate. We have different viewpoints and different goals.
Christian, here at PA, we are all focused on profit. You must have us mixed up with ANOTHER website that you're hawking your wares at.......

thaskalos
05-11-2015, 07:25 PM
It sounds like you handicap a horse's potential based on the sum of its last performance (like using the Beyer fig as a factor). While there's nothing wrong with that, itís not how I pick horses. I focus on fractional performance instead.

My perspective is based on profit, not win rate. I donít go to the track to compete for win rate. Itís all about money. From what you're focusing on (conventional handicapping wisdom), it sounds like you are more interested in picking the winner than producing a profit. If that's the case, there's nothing to debate. We have different viewpoints and different goals.



Not bad...

You figured out how I handicap and what my prime motivation is...without me even saying anything about my own method of play. You might be a good handicapper after all... :ThmbUp:

No offense intended, Christian. I just gave you my honest opinion...like you asked. I wish you much success with the books.

Sinner369
05-11-2015, 08:24 PM
No. Thaskalos is looking for good advice about longshots that match the promises of the author. So far he hasn't found that advice.

That's not good advice???............look everyone does not have the same taste buds on fashion, food, the opposite sex, cars, houses...........anything!

So, we cannot all agree on Christian book. My own background is mainly on harness races so I know exactly what Mr. Peters is attempting to do and his three longshot patterns (indicators).

I have a dozen patterns on long shot horses in harness racing and they do not always work but they work well enough that I can make a profit but one has to be patience to wait for those types of horses with such patterns.

I commend Christian on his attempt to write a long shot book for thoroughbreds..........in case we all forget..........favorites only come in 30 to 33% of the time. The rest are price horses.

Anywhere in our society 33% is considered a failure.

ReplayRandall
05-11-2015, 08:40 PM
Anywhere in our society 33% is considered a failure.
In baseball, a .333 hitter is a Hall-of-Famer.....if you don't know what defines failure, conversely, how can you know what is truly considered a success?.......It's all about hit rate and value, in a given situation ....

Poindexter
05-11-2015, 08:42 PM
Downloaded it and read part of it. Skimmed through more of it. I will review it in the next week or so, when I have fully read it and when I have gone through some old racing forms and see how some of his angles do. From what I saw, I do not see anything that I have a problem with, although 5% of bankroll on longshots is way too much(have not gotten to that part of the book yet though). His angles seem logical and make sense, I just need to see if they pan out in the real world as well as the author says they will. Honestly, do not have a problem with an author telling people to ignore speed figures. While I do not, I think if you can find ways to make money in this game doing so, I am all for it.

Biggest criticisim I have Christian is you talk about the importance of watching replays and I completely agree, but from what I saw, you really did not discuss the area of trip handicapping. If you are writing a book and you are telling your readers to watch replays, you cannot assume they know what to look for. It is your job as author to discuss the subject more. Anyhow, thanks for the free download and I will post a review when I can. Good luck with the book.

Sinner369
05-11-2015, 09:00 PM
In baseball, a .333 hitter is a Hall-of-Famer.....if you don't know what defines failure, conversely, how can you know what is truly considered a success?.......It's all about hit rate and value, in a given situation ....

Is baseball considered part of everyone's "society"? And betting favorites in horse racing is considered successful?

If the average value pays out for a "favorite is what........???..........$4.00 then you would lose betting the "favorite".

ReplayRandall
05-11-2015, 09:06 PM
Is baseball considered part of everyone's "society"? And betting favorites in horse racing is considered successful?

If the average value pays out for a "favorite is what........???..........$4.00 then you would lose betting the "favorite".
Are you being serious or are you yanking my chain?.......You didn't even "accidently" understand my post to you.

Sinner369
05-11-2015, 09:41 PM
Are you being serious or are you yanking my chain?.......You didn't even "accidently" understand my post to you.

Do you understand my post?..........favorites come in one out of three times.

So, if your favorite comes in once out of three times and pays $4.00 that means you spent $6.00 to get back four dollars. Assuming a two dollar ticket each time you bet.

Some_One
05-11-2015, 11:14 PM
So I took a look at the Longshots one, and I had to stop early on. So the first bit about Speed ratings is close to the view I have, but you miss the mark, the word you are missing is 'context' IMO. Now on to the doozy, the maiden example, to claim that a horse exiting (I would have to assume mean a horse existing the average) MSW, MC50k and MC5K all have around the same chance to win if they faced each other in race is absolute B.S. You'll never be able to support this. You could, if you had the stats, say that the MSW horse has a lower EV then the other two (I'm not sure if it does), that is a plausible situation. And to say there is no difference in the ability of the different class levels is a provable false.

ChristianBlake
05-12-2015, 12:00 AM
Thanks for all the input and downloads guys!

Everybody has their own methods of handicapping. I play long shots, which means I find value where most players never look. The book shares my insights, nothing more. And remember....the title is How To Pick Long Shots not How To Pick Chalk.

Regarding maiden comparison, this seems to be a touchy issue. Simply put, I don't value them much differently. They are the worst horses on the track. Any maiden worth its price runs 1 or 2 races, graduates, and moves on. The rest of the maidens in the MSW, IMO, are over priced clunkers that the owners are terrified of selling at a price lower than their embarrassingly high purchase price. Trainers keep racing them in MSW to protect them and to keep their owners happy (and to collect a monthly nut for training). Eventually though, all owners give in, and the plummet to a horse's true value begins.

But then again, that's just my opinion. :)

Greyfox
05-12-2015, 01:52 AM
Regarding maiden comparison, this seems to be a touchy issue. Simply put, I don't value them much differently. They are the worst horses on the track.

Contrary to that idea, I find Maiden Races the best ones to handicap and play on the So Cal circuit.
To each their own I guess.

Some_One
05-12-2015, 02:39 AM
Chalk can never be the best bet in a race?

Poindexter
05-12-2015, 06:09 AM
So I took a look at the Longshots one, and I had to stop early on. So the first bit about Speed ratings is close to the view I have, but you miss the mark, the word you are missing is 'context' IMO. Now on to the doozy, the maiden example, to claim that a horse exiting (I would have to assume mean a horse existing the average) MSW, MC50k and MC5K all have around the same chance to win if they faced each other in race is absolute B.S. You'll never be able to support this. You could, if you had the stats, say that the MSW horse has a lower EV then the other two (I'm not sure if it does), that is a plausible situation. And to say there is no difference in the ability of the different class levels is a provable false.

I think the point the author is trying to make is that given the wide variance of talent in maiden races, a horse, that is dropping from a MDN, to a Mdn 20, might not really have that perceived class edge the public thinks he does. He uses other strategies to actually gauge the class of the horse and is basically looking for horses that may falsely appear too cheap to compete. His approach is time consuming (more time than most will be willing to put forth watching replays....), but makes complete sense to me and I actually consider it clever (certainly not revolutionary). I will comment on the rest when I finish. Not going to bother with looking at old forms, his approach is way too time consuming.

By the way I retract my previousl comment about trip handicapping. Author mentions his book is geared towards intermediate horseplayers and advises novices read other books prior to this.

acorn54
05-12-2015, 12:51 PM
Chalk can never be the best bet in a race?


lets say you have a payoff of even money (the chalk) for beating 5 or 6 other competitors (horses) with a 15% take out and dime breakage on a 4 dollar payoff.
and to bet on a football game with a even money chance of winning and vigorish much lower than the combined take of take out and dime breakage in horse racing, (i believe it is 10% on a football bet) is it any wonder that horse racing is a dying sport?

ReplayRandall
05-12-2015, 01:54 PM
lets say you have a payoff of even money (the chalk) for beating 5 or 6 other competitors (horses) with a 15% take out and dime breakage on a 4 dollar payoff.
and to bet on a football game with a even money chance of winning and vigorish much lower than the combined take of take out and dime breakage in horse racing, (i believe it is 10% on a football bet) is it any wonder that horse racing is a dying sport?
If MY line tells me the chalk should be 1-2, and I'm getting even money, it's a profitable play for me. It's up to each player where profit is found, be it a longshot, or be it the favorite......Apples and Oranges, Acorn...

acorn54
05-12-2015, 02:00 PM
If MY line tells me the chalk should be 1-2, and I'm getting even money, it's a profitable play for me. It's up to each player where profit is found, be it a longshot, or be it the favorite......Apples and Oranges, Acorn...
well if you can come up with that accurate of an odds line with all the unknowns of what the jock's strategy is going to be after the gates are open and the race begins, plus the quality of trip that the horse will get, my hat is off to you. i, myself can not construct an odds line that can differentiate that slim of a profit line.

Some_One
05-12-2015, 04:19 PM
It's just a fact that generally favs are underbet, especially outside of the win pool. People in this game just chase the big money which results in longshots being overbet relative to their expectations.

thaskalos
05-12-2015, 04:22 PM
It's just a fact that generally favs are underbet, especially outside of the win pool. People in this game just chase the big money which results in longshots being overbet relative to their expectations.
You can't go chasing longshots. You look for bargains...and bargains are not restricted to particular odds ranges. An 8/5 favorite could easily be the best bet of the day, under the right conditions.

Pensacola Pete
05-13-2015, 02:48 PM
The premise that 33% of all favorites win (roughly correct) doesn't mean that 67% are price horses. The first three favorites win about 67% of all races, and few are longshots. With an average field size of about 8, that means that there are 5 horses in a race with a combined chance of winning of about 32%.

From what I've come to understand about horse racing, the most significant portion of a race is the last couple of furlongs. Quite often, the jockeys will set a leisurely pace around the track, and then it's a mad dash for the last quarter mile. As long as a horse has decent sprint ability for at least a few furlongs, I'll consider it a potential winner at any distance.

That's generally true of turf racing overseas, particularly in Australia. Most of the race is run at a near-canter. The last 400 meters is where the action happens. Here in the states on the main track, it's not nearly as important.

ChristianBlake
05-14-2015, 11:42 AM
I think the point the author is trying to make is that given the wide variance of talent in maiden races, a horse, that is dropping from a MDN, to a Mdn 20, might not really have that perceived class edge the public thinks he does. He uses other strategies to actually gauge the class of the horse and is basically looking for horses that may falsely appear too cheap to compete.

You explained that perfectly.

While class distinction between claiming levels can be mostly trusted, the difference between MSW and MC, in my opinion, is blurred. A MDN CLM will beat a MSW far more often than a 10K claimer will beat a 50K claimer.

Situations I noticed relating to maidens:

MDN CLM moving to MSW: Near as I can tell, there's two explanations for this move. (1) The trainer saw something special in its last performance and is moving it up for either a big payout or to eliminate the risk of losing the horse. The public will almost never back a MDN claimer moving into MSW. Place and Show bettors should pay particular attention to these class moves because even if the maiden claimer doesn't win, if it manages to get 2nd or 3rd, the payouts can be big. (2) The trainer saw something special and is setting it up for a big payout 2 races down the road. The MSW entry is just a sideshow; the horse loses miserably and then the trainer drops it back down into MDN CLM and wins at a price. There is one trainer in particular at GG that will darken the form like this deliberately. He does this exact scenario several times a year.

MSW dropping to MC: This is when the owner has most likely conceded that their $200K purchase might be a mule in disguise. When a MSW drops to MDN CLM, it's a perfect opportunity to cash in. The public will hammer that MSW to disgustingly low odds and will ignore solid performing maidens that have only knocked around in the maiden claiming ranks. Usually the odds will be so low on the MSW horse that you can make 2 or 3 Win bets on multiple horses because the odds dictate multiple win bets as a viable wagering strategy.

coastkid
05-14-2015, 08:30 PM
I have posted my review on the Amazon website. Thanks for the offer!

Poindexter
05-14-2015, 10:03 PM
Interesting tidbit. Played Santa Anita today. In the 7th I liked a longshot for value purposes Rich in Tradition. Played him win/place and played him in the 2 hole and 3 hole in exactas/trifectas(mostly behind the winning favorite). In the last couple of minutes I realized that longshot smil'n from above who I did not like, but fit the bill as one on the angles in the book kept drifting up in odds(was 27-1 when I noticed him) So I tossed him in with the favorite and rich in tradition in a 3 horse trifecta box, coming back with extra with the favorite on top. Favorite wins by a nose over the smilin from above, and rich in Tradition gets photo'd out of 3rd. Ran out of time and screwed up the superfecta cover, and only had it for a dime, so show photo cost me a lot, but point is that for a very small bet, just tossing in one of his longshot plays almost got me a nice little hit. Still made money on the race, which I would not have otherwise, but could have been a nice little hit had my longshot gotten up for 3rd. Also played the race very poorly(should have had the exacta and a larger super-but I did run out of time). The longshot pointed out by his book just missed at 41-1(and likely would have gotten up to win if not for traffic trouble in the lane). The $1 exacta which I did not have came back $47. Bottom line, is you are never done learning in this game. Would not have used this 41-1 shot who came 2nd if not for reading this very short book.

sam4022
05-16-2015, 07:59 AM
Christian,

Just posted on Amazon. I enjoyed reading the book best wishes & good luck with sales.

Robert Goren
05-16-2015, 08:29 AM
MSW dropping to MC: This is when the owner has most likely conceded that their $200K purchase might be a mule in disguise. When a MSW drops to MDN CLM, it's a perfect opportunity to cash in. The public will hammer that MSW to disgustingly low odds and will ignore solid performing maidens that have only knocked around in the maiden claiming ranks. Usually the odds will be so low on the MSW horse that you can make 2 or 3 Win bets on multiple horses because the odds dictate multiple win bets as a viable wagering strategy. Put 3 of these kind of droppers in a race and you can get really great odds on a horse dropping a level in maiden claiming price. Fourth place finishers in their last such race seem to get ignored a lot in these types of races. I have caught some triple digit winners in these situations. But you do need big fields to hide them and we all know how rare they are today.

Capper Al
05-19-2015, 08:54 AM
Long shots are horses that should go off at low odds and are going off at fair odds or higher, or horses that should go off at fair odds and are going off at long odds. Surprises are horses showing a little something that should be at least fair odds or better. The term long shot gets missed used to cover a wider range than it should.