comparing pace

[sbcaris]

In 2013 Palace Malice set a suicidal pace in the Kentucky Derby going the first 6 furlongs in a crazy fast 109 and change. Naturally, the frontrunners all weakened in that Derby and 4 horses closed to form the superfecta.

In 2015 Dortmund got away with 111 and the three front speedsters comprised the trifecta.

Pace makes the race (an old adage).

[depalma113]

In 2013 Palace Malice set a suicidal pace in the Kentucky Derby going the first 6 furlongs in a crazy fast 109 and change. Naturally, the frontrunners all weakened in that Derby and 4 horses closed to form the superfecta.

In 2015 Dortmund got away with 111 and the three front speedsters comprised the trifecta.

Pace makes the race (an old adage).

Explain Congaree and Bodemeister than.

[minethatbird08]

I think it is a combination of the pace not being excessive and there being a decent margin of talent difference between the top 4 finishers (plus Materiality) and the rest of the field.

[letswastemoney]

Bodemeister ran one of the greatest Derby races of all time. Not every horse will fade under a fast pace if they're good.

[raybo]

Bodemeister ran one of the greatest Derby races of all time. Not every horse will fade under a fast pace if they're good.

I agree, Bodemeister's pace in the Derby, while being barely beaten late, was one of the most impressive Derby performances I've ever seen.

[nads1420]

I agree, Bodemeister's pace in the Derby, while being barely beaten late, was one of the most impressive Derby performances I've ever seen.



those are some strong statements.. not saying correct or incorrect... but bold none the less

[raybo]

those are some strong statements.. not saying correct or incorrect... but bold none the less

We two aren't the only ones who were impressed by that performance:

Bodemeister’s Derby performance will be remembered as one of the most impressive by a losing horse.

“He ran as good as a horse can run,” Baffert said.

With sprinter Trinniberg pressing, Bodemeister ran the first half-mile in 45.39 seconds. The only horses to run a faster half-mile in the Derby were Songandaprayer, who faded to a 13th-place finish in 2001, Tom Avenger, who wound up 19th in 1981; Groovy, who finished 16th and last in 1986; and Spanish Chestnut, who finished 16th in 2005.

Though Bodemeister eventually opened a clear lead, moving three lengths in front at the quarter pole and maintaining that margin in midstretch, Baffert wasn’t ready to celebrate.

“I never thought I had it,” he said. “When I saw the half in 45 … this is ridiculous.”

I’ll Have Another was gaining ground at the eighth pole and took charge in the final sixteenth, defeating Bodemeister by 1 1/2 lengths. Bodemeister was game to hold off late runners Dullahan and Went the Day Well for second place.

To many serious racing fans, however, the most dramatic part of the Derby was the performance of the loser, Bodemeister. His front-running effort was like few in the history of the race.

Bodemeister is a fast colt who was facing two very fast rivals: Hansen, the reigning champion of this generation of 3-year-olds; and Trinniberg, a sprinter who was certain to display his high speed and then run out of gas. Most people expected Bodemeister’s jockey, Mike Smith, to sit behind Trinniberg. But when the gate opened, Bodemeister broke more sharply than any of his rivals.

“He was flying leaving there,” Smith said. “He was two [lengths] in front leaving the gate.” Smith and trainer Bob Baffert had talked before the race about such a scenario, and Baffert had no reservations about letting his colt go to the front.

Trinniberg showed his natural high speed, but jockey Willie Martinez wasn’t sending him on a suicide mission. So Smith was committed to try to lead the Derby from start to finish. Over the very fast Churchill Downs surface, Bodemeister sped the first quarter-mile in 22.32 seconds, a half mile in 45.39 and three quarters of a mile in 1 minute 9.80 seconds. NBC’s commentators noted that this was the fifth-fastest pace in the race’s history, but even that fact does not begin to suggest the difficulty of what Bodemeister was trying to do.

In the Derby’s 137 previous runnings, a total of 10 horses had sped the first half mile in 45.4 seconds or less. There were some legitimate contenders among them, but all ten of them virtually collapsed after this exertion. All finished in 10th place or worse. Yet Bodemeister kept on going.

When you consider how fast Bodemeister ran the first six furlong of the Kentucky Derby (1:09 4/5ths) it's ultra-impressive that he only gave up the lead inside the final hundred yards. It was a magnificent performance from a colt that has proven that he's a force to be reckoned with, even when he decides to set absurd fractions.

[DeltaLover]

Pace makes the race (an old adage).

I have no doubt about the validity of the statement. The problem lies in the fact that predicting the pace is equally challenging as predicting the winner of the race.

[whodoyoulike]

I have no doubt about the validity of the statement. The problem lies in the fact that predicting the pace is equally challenging as predicting the winner of the race.


This really is what handicapping is all about.

[DeltaLover]

This really is what handicapping is all about.

I am not sure if this is all that handicapping is about, certainly it is a piece of it though!

[Tom]

All the pace formulas in the world cannot compensate for a pinhead who grabs out of the gate.