What I Took Away From The 2015 Kentucky Derby

[Bob S.]

http://regalbloodlines.com/2015/05/04/what-i-took-away-from-the-2015-kentucky-derby/

[Augenj]

But I must say, looking back on the race, there was what appeared to be a tiring rail that affected Dortmund, Mubtaahij, and Carpe Diem. So maybe there is more talent there than meets the eye. They would have to keep him (Mubtaahij) in America to find out.

I hadn't heard about the tiring rail but Mubtaahij hugged the rail the whole trip. If it had been wet, it might have been the place to be, ala Calvin Borel.

[ReplayRandall]

http://regalbloodlines.com/2015/05/04/what-i-took-away-from-the-2015-kentucky-derby/
Bob, unfortunately you mentioned twice that the Preakness was in 3 weeks, you might want to edit your article to 2 weeks, running on May 16, 2015...

[nads1420]

what i took away is i really need to stop over thinking everything... pretty simple American Pharoah was the best horse, Dortmund was his biggest competition, and Firing Line was with in a head of Dortmund twice. Simple minded approach would of hit the tri... Im not gonna over think it for the Preakness. Those 3 horse where ahead of the field the whole way around the track, they are just better. Tri Box pounding it

[sbcaris]

Very few Derbies in memory have three frontrunners stay the whole course. In fact the vast majority of Derbies are won by horses coming from off the pace.

I can remember only one other Derby that had the first 3 runners stay there all the way: War Emblem, Proud Citizen and Perfect Drift in 2002.

This year's Derby was exceedingly rare where 3 front-running horses stay the whole trip.

[f2tornado]

Very few Derbies in memory have three frontrunners stay the whole course. In fact the vast majority of Derbies are won by horses coming from off the pace.

I can remember only one other Derby that had the first 3 runners stay there all the way: War Emblem, Proud Citizen and Perfect Drift in 2002.

This year's Derby was exceedingly rare where 3 front-running horses stay the whole trip.

Certainly. If we look at the LP Brisnet figures for the contenders this year we only had a few horses that had the magic 101. The pace was honest but not hot enough to melt down and the few stronger closers that were even in the gate were simply not fast enough for the pace. Total overthinking trying to beat the favorites. Maybe Frosted and Materiality would have been closer to the mix with better trips. After all the hoopla about a strong field I'm thinking it was a rather weak one.

[depalma113]

But I must say, looking back on the race, there was what appeared to be a tiring rail that affected Dortmund, Mubtaahij, and Carpe Diem. So maybe there is more talent there than meets the eye. They would have to keep him (Mubtaahij) in America to find out.

I hadn't heard about the tiring rail but Mubtaahij hugged the rail the whole trip. If it had been wet, it might have been the place to be, ala Calvin Borel.


Mubtaahij wasn't fast enough, always hugs the rail, ran without lasix and was facing real dirt speed that wasn't going to fold in the stretch.

They could run the race 100 times and he was never going to win.

Carpe Diem was just too slow.

[razorback5]

I took away over 3 grand betting the favorite. One of the most important things I've learned in handicapping is not overlooking the obvious. The second most important is trust you eyes and trust your instincts.

[Augenj]

Mubtaahij wasn't fast enough, always hugs the rail, ran without lasix and was facing real dirt speed that wasn't going to fold in the stretch.

They could run the race 100 times and he was never going to win.

Carpe Diem was just too slow.
OK, I'm saying he could win the race within 50 times. :)
Here's how...

* Oh great Belgian jockey, get off the tiring rail. Don't "rate" coming out of the gate as the chart said you did. In a 20 horse field, it's all about positioning. Follow in Dortman's huge wake.
* Hope for some "real dirt speed" in front instead of the top three setting the relatively slow pace. They had it their way the whole trip. Frosted would have won it if this hadn't happened.
* And finally, grow up a little. You just turned 3 in calendar years. :D

By the way, I boxed/cashed Dortman, American Pharoah, and Firing Line in three separate 4 horse Trifectas as any reasonable bettor might do so Mubtaahij was not my "main man". ;)

[depalma113]

Mubtaahij and Carpe Diem should not have been on any ticket.

[raybo]

But I must say, looking back on the race, there was what appeared to be a tiring rail that affected Dortmund, Mubtaahij, and Carpe Diem. So maybe there is more talent there than meets the eye. They would have to keep him (Mubtaahij) in America to find out.

I hadn't heard about the tiring rail but Mubtaahij hugged the rail the whole trip. If it had been wet, it might have been the place to be, ala Calvin Borel.

I mentioned that possibility on my forum after the race. Maybe the rail was NOT the place to be this year. I am also one of those who thinks that the CD surface got slower as the day wet on, which tends to punish the front runners moreso than a faster surface. As the race was going on, I thought while seeing the fractions that Dortmund would win or at least get a nose or head 2nd behind Firing Line. But, when Dortmund exited the far turn, I knew something wasn't quite right with him, he looked to be tiring at the top of the stretch. I didn't expect to see that after the seemingly modest pace.

[BlueChip@DRF]

OK, I'm saying he could win the race within 50 times. :)
Here's how...

* Oh great Belgian jockey, get off the tiring rail. Don't "rate" coming out of the gate as the chart said you did. In a 20 horse field, it's all about positioning. Follow in Dortman's huge wake.
* Hope for some "real dirt speed" in front instead of the top three setting the relatively slow pace. They had it their way the whole trip. Frosted would have won it if this hadn't happened.
* And finally, grow up a little. You just turned 3 in calendar years. :D

By the way, I boxed/cashed Dortman, American Pharoah, and Firing Line in three separate 4 horse Trifectas as any reasonable bettor might do so Mubtaahij was not my "main man". ;)


Looks like a lot of people hit the trifecta. The trifecta paid about 35% less than it should have but the exacta paid about 16% more than it should have.

[Augenj]

Looks like a lot of people hit the trifecta. The trifecta paid about 35% less than it should have but the exacta paid about 16% more than it should have.
I was hoping for AP to finish 2nd or 3rd but it is what it is. :)

[boys at tosconova]

here's what i took away

http://i.imgur.com/eoNuAqC.gif

[BlueChip@DRF]

here's what i took away

http://i.imgur.com/eoNuAqC.gif

And so did everyone else.

[boys at tosconova]

And so did everyone else.

air betting does not count

[raybo]

air betting does not count

Then neither does yours. Lots of people made money on this Derby, after all, the favorite did win, and the other 2 top 3 contenders finished in the trifecta, and another legitimate contender finished in the superfecta. Many who were alive for the picks when the Derby came around would almost certainly have had AP on their tickets.

[thaskalos]

here's what i took away

http://i.imgur.com/eoNuAqC.gif
Be careful. This chap counting all that money goes broke in the end. :)

[BlueChip@DRF]

Then neither does yours. Lots of people made money on this Derby, after all, the favorite did win, and the other 2 top 3 contenders finished in the trifecta, and another legitimate contender finished in the superfecta. Many who were alive for the picks when the Derby came around would almost certainly have had AP on their tickets.

Except for the exacta, the rest of the exotic payouts were pretty low. That means everyone and their brother-in-law bet the same way.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Be careful. This chap counting all that money goes broke in the end. :)

And ends up in prison on a far away island with Rainman for a friend. :p

[raybo]

Except for the exacta, the rest of the exotic payouts were pretty low. That means everyone and their brother-in-law bet the same way.

True, this year isn't the year to brag about any winnings in the Derby - LOL!

[BlueChip@DRF]

http://regalbloodlines.com/2015/05/04/what-i-took-away-from-the-2015-kentucky-derby/

For me, Pletcher has good horses but nothing that will stamp them in history as great.

[RoyalHeroine]

For me, Pletcher has good horses but nothing that will stamp them in history as great.

Down the line the two stand out horses from the Pletcher barn will be Materiality and Competitive Edge.

Right now I cannot separate the two either. In the end I think CE will actually be better than Materiality.