Belmont: Saturday, May 2

[Teach]

Good morning from Metrowest about 20 miles from Boston. "There's a bright golden haze on the meadow..." Temp here at 6:45 a.m. is only 36 degrees. Yet, it should be in the 60s here this afternoon. Weather in Louisville will be party cloudy, near 80.

Ah, one of the days we horseplayers wait for, the first Saturday in May, The Kentucky Derby. I've never been. Over the years I've thought of going. You know, sipping a Mint Julep and staying at The Gault House. Maybe next year.

Well, I've looked at the race several times. The Kentucky Derby, that is. Large field. The run into that first turn looks will like a cavalry charge. I'm looking for "a closer".

Good luck to all of you taking part at Belmont's low-budget handicapping contest. I understand that you only need $40 to enter and that you can keep the winnings on $30 of wagering on five across-the-board bets. The grand prize is 70% of the $10 combined buy-in fees. Mucho dinero. My advice: try to nail at least one or two longshots. Hitting short-priced "singles" ain't gonna cut it. You need to "go yard!" As my friend used to say, "All it takes is one!"

Well, I'll be back in a few hours with my picks. On this edition, I'm gonna include picks that are specifically tailored to those who are playing the Belmont handicapping contest. First post at Belmont: 12 noon.

[Teach]

Asterisk (*) indicates horses and races I'd play in Belmont $40 buy-in handicapping contest.

Race One:

5 Woodford Pine has hit the tote in both his pari-mutuel tries. Slight stretch-out should not cause problem; in fact, it should help for this “Silky Sullivan” type. Will likely lag behind in early stages and then mount closing charge. Jockey Joe Bravo must keep him close enough to mount his winning charge before running out of real estate. Trainer Chad Brown does well with beaten favorites. Adds blinkers. Solid work-tab.

Others: 2 Overawe; 3 All About Ashley

Race Two:

1 Golden Story should benefit from his rail starting post in this 6-furlong claiming grass sprint. The red-hot Cornelio Velasquez is in the irons. This Medaglia d’Oro-bred horse make have needed his last, a race in which he finished 9th in a field of 12. He went off the chalk in that one. David Jacobson trains; he’s very good with beaten favorites and 2nd off a layoff. This horse must break alerty to gain the victory.

Others: 3 Attractive Ride; 4 Mish Mosh; 6 Non Stop

Race Three: (*)

1 Tug of War is my value play in this race. No, this is obviously no off-the-wall longshot try; yet, if this gelding stays at oddsmaker Eric Donovan’s ML 4-1, I think there’s value. This Smarty Jones-bred gelding was admittedly beaten by weaker in his last; yet, I feel he fits well in this company. Jeremish Englehart, the owner-trainer, is a solid conditioner. He does well with dirt starts and claiming races. This gelding had a solid, recent work. The up-and-coming Eric Cancel is in the irons.

Others: 5 Rap d’Oro; 4 Matt and Jesse; 3 Lure of the South

Race Four:

In the Grade II Sheepshead Bay I like 4 Beauty Parlor. This Sadler’s Wells-bred filly shipped “Across the Pond” earlier this year. In her only start in Les Etat-Unis, she won the Grade III Orchid at Gulfstream. If this filly can dispay that same forn here, she should easily win this Grade II Stakes. Rajiv Maragh for Christophe Clement.

Others: 5 Rosalind; 1 Riposte

Race Five: (*)

4 Maura’s Pass, a ML 8-1 shot, is my pick in this claiming turf sprint. This Lord-Avie-bred hasn’t done much on the main in recent tries; however, she now returns to the lawn where she has finished second in four tries. The filly, admittedly, hasn’t raced since late December and her morning works are less than stellar; yet she is dropping and might just find this field and surface to her liking. The filly’s trainer, Jason Servis, does well with turf starts and horses that have been away from the track. Rajiv Maragh is in the stirrups.

Others: 7 Miss Loretta Lynn; 8 Jewelisa; 2 No Tunes

Race Six:

In the Grade III Westchester Stakes, I’m picking 1 Tonalist. With Palace Malice declared, this Tapit-bred colt looks like “The Horse”. I just don’t see that much competition for this Grade I Jockey Club winner at Belmont last fall. Oh, by the way, she won the Belmont last June. My slight concern is that this horse sometimes takes a bit of time to get into gear. Jockey Joe Bravo doesn’t have that much real estate to work with that he can be too far off the pace; that’s not to say that he would be. This colt has been away from the races for six months; yet his most recent work was excellent. Christophe Clement is the colt’s conditioner.

Other: 3 Confrontation

Race Seven: (*)

In this allowance grass, I’m going with one of the outside horses, 11 Saltine Warrior. Part of my thinking is based on handicapping (that’s justifiable); the other (I can’t quantify) is part-hunch. My wife’s favorite crackers are the Saltine “Rounds”. What that has to do with handicapping I’m not quite sure. What this gelding does have is his 8-1 ML status. If he should pop? What does he have going for him? Well, for one, the services of trainer George Weaver. Weaver’s an accomplished trainer who does reasonably well with turf starts. Although this horse has won only one race, that win came on the lawn. In fact this gelding has hit the tote in 8 out of 11 turf tries. Although this gelding has been away from the races for many months, he has put in a consistent array of solid morning works. The most capable Joe Bravo is in the irons.

Others: 10 Private Thrill; 9 Boston Strong (now that would be a hunch); 8 One Eyed Ray

Race Eight: (*)

In this maiden-special sprint my pick is, as they would say at the “famous” Boston French restaurant (more like a fast-food eater), Au Bon Pain, is the piece de resistance, 8 Bluegrass Rye. This This Bluegrass Cat-bred chestnut colt has been installed as a distinct longshot at 15-1. Can this David Donk-trainee win? I think he’s he’s got a chance. Bonne Chance. You can bet your derriere. Why? You ask. A solid lineage. The Dam, Serenity Jane, had 8 winners from 11 starters. Although trainer Donk hasn’t done particularly well with first-time starters; this may be the exception. Frankly, I’m impressed with this colt’s morning work-tab. The improving-with-every-race apprentice, Eric Cancel, is in the irons.

Others: 2 Tommy Macho; 3 Native Hawk; 7 Talk Time

Race Nine:

In this optional claiming route I like 10 Tizquick. This Tiznow-bred colt has hit the tote in 5 out 7 lifetime starts. This mile and one-sixteenth route should pose no problem. His trainer, John Kimmel, is a solid conditioner. He does reasonably well with second starts off a layoff. Angel Arryo has the riding assignment.

Others: 6 Fleet First; 3 Pretension; 4 Ostrolenka.

Race Ten:

In the Grade III Fort Marcy, a grass route race, my choice is 1A Big Blue Kitten. This half of the Chad Brown entry is a proven grass router. This 7-year-old horse has won 10 out of 22 on the lawn. He has been away from the races for a while having finished in the Grade III Red Smith back in last November at Aqueduct. Yet, the horse’s morning work tab has been good. Joe Bravo is the horse’s pilot.

Others: 7 V. E. Day; 5 Mr. Speaker; 6 Divine Oath.

The Kentucky Derby: (*)

I’m looking at an array of closers. It would take me several minutes to put down all my thoughts. Suffice to say I’m going to look carefully at five horses: 15 Frosted; 12 International Star; 5 Danzig Moon; 9 Bolo; 10 Firing Line

Race Eleven:

My pick is the 1A Classy Class. The colt was last seen about a month ago finishing fifth in The Bluegrass at Keeneland. The slight turn-back here should help. Christophe Clement is an excellent trainer who does well in many categories. The razor-sharp Corbelio Velasquez is in the irons.

Others: 8 Awesome Bill; 6 Gold Shield; 3 Pax in Terra.

Race Twelve:

My pick in the finale is 10 Luv Dakota Skye. This gelding, though moving up in company, in my opinion has a shot winner this claiming turf sprint. Trainer George Weaver does very well with horses that have been away from the races. The gelding stretches out a panel, that should help. Joe Bravo draws the assignment.

Others: 9 A Marked Man; 7 Risky Sour; 8 Abandon Ship.