Giacomo05
05-01-2015, 01:39 PM
You can almost expect a 2 or 3 strike horse to get into the super..
2015
zero strikes:
Dortmund
El Kabeir
International Star
Mubtaahij
Upstart
one strike:
American Pharoah (Category 6)
Carpe Diem (Category 6)
Far Right (Category 3)
Frosted (Catgegory 4)
two strikes:
Firing Line (Categories 4 and 6)
Materiality (Categories 6 and 8)
Ocho Ocho Ocho (Categories 4 and 6)
Tencendur (Categories 2 and 6)
War Story (Categories 2 and 6)
three strikes:
Bolo (Categories 2, 4 and 6)
Danzig Moon (Categories 2, 3 and 6)
Itsaknockout (Categories 3, 5 and 6)
Keen Ice (Categories 2, 3 and 5)
Mr. Z (Cargeries 2, 4 and 7)
Stanford (2, 4 and 6)
Frammento (Categories 2, 3 and 5)
Tale of Verve (Categories 1, 2 and 3)
KD super strikes
2014
California Chrome (0)
Commanding Curve (3) Categories 2, 3 and 4
Danza (2) Categories 1 and 6
Wicked Strong (1) Category 3
2013
Orb (0)
Golden Soul (4) Categories 2, 3, 5 and 6
Revolutionary (0)
Normandy Invasion (3) (Categories 2, 3 and 6)
2012
I’ll Have Another (1) Category 6
Bodemeister (3) categories 6, 7, 8
Dullahan (0)
Went the day well (1) category 6
2011
Animal Kingdom (1) Category 6
Nehro (3) categories 2, 3, 6
Mucho Macho Man (1) category 4
Shackelford (3) categories 2, 4, 6
2010
Super Saver (1) Category 4
Ice box (1) category 3
Paddy O'Prado (1) Category 4
Make Music For Me (4) categories 1, 2, 3, 5
2009
Mine That Bird (4) categories 1, 4, 5 and 9
Pioneerof the Nile (0)
Musket Man (0)
Papa Clem (0)
2008
Big Brown (1) category 6
Eight Belles (1) category 5
Denis of Cork (3) categories 3, 5, 6
Tale of Ekati (0)
2007
Street Sense (0)
Hard Spun (1) Category 4
Curlin (2) categories 6 and 8
Imawildandcrazyguy (4) categories 2, 3, 5 and 9)
2006
Barbaro (1) category 6
Bluegrass Cat (1) category 3
Steppenwolfer (2) categories 2 and 4
Jazil (2) categories 2 and 3
2005
Giacomo (2) Categories 2 and 5
Closing Arguement (0)
Afleet Alex (0)
Dont Get Mad (0)
2004
Smarty Jones (0)
Since 1973, 36 of the 41 Kentucky Derby winners have had either zero strikes or one strike, while five winners had
two strikes. Of the last 41 Kentucky Derby winners, the only one to have more than two strikes was Mine That Bird, who
had four.
Here are the strikes for each Kentucky Derby winner going back to 1973:
1973 Secretariat (0 strikes)
1974 Cannonade (2 strikes) Categories 3 and 4
1975 Foolish Pleasure (0 strikes)
1976 Bold Forbes (0 strikes)
1977 Seattle Slew (0 strikes)
1978 Affirmed (0 strikes)
1979 Spectacular Bid (0 strikes)
1980 Pleasant Colony (0 strikes)
1981 Genuine Risk (1 strike) Category 1
1982 Gato Del Sol (1 strike) Category 3
1983 Sunny’s Halo (1 strike) Category 1
1984 Swale (0 strikes)
1985 Spend a Buck (0 strikes)
1986 Ferdinand (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 4
1987 Alysheba (1 strike) Category 2
1988 Winning Colors (0 strikes)
1989 Sunday Silence (0 strikes)
1990 Unbridled (1 strike) Category 3
1991 Strike the Gold (0 strikes)
1992 Lil E. Tee (0 strikes)
1993 Sea Hero (2 strikes) Categories 3 and 5
1994 Go for Gin (0 strikes)
1995 Thunder Gulch (0 strikes)
1996 Grindstone (0 strikes)
1997 Silver Charm (1 strike) Category 4
1998 Real Quiet (0 strikes)
1999 Charismatic (1 strike) Category 5
2000 Fusaichi Pegasus (1 strike) Category 6
2001 Monarchos (0 strikes)
2002 War Emblem (0 strikes)
2003 Funny Cide (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 9
2004 Smarty Jones (0 strikes)
2005 Giacomo (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 5
2006 Barbaro (1 strike) Category 6
2007 Street Sense (0 strikes)
2008 Big Brown (1 strike) Category 6
2009 Mine That Bird (4 strikes) Categories 1, 4, 5 and 9
2010 Super Saver (1 strike) Category 4
2011 Animal Kingdom (1 strike) Category 6
2012 I’ll Have Another (1 strike) Category 6
2013 Orb (0 strikes)
2014 California Chrome (0 strikes)
1. THE GRADED STAKES FACTOR. (The horse ran in a graded stakes race as a 3-year-old before March 31.) This points out
horses who have competed against tough competition early in the year at 3 and not just at the last minute in April,
enabling the horse to be properly battle-tested. (Exceptions: Since the introduction of graded stakes races in the U.S.
in 1973, only Genuine Risk in 1980, Sunny’s Halo in 1983 and Mine That Bird in 2009 have won the Derby without running in
a graded stakes race at 3 before March 31.)
2. THE WIN IN A GRADED STAKES FACTOR. (The horse has won a graded stakes race.) This points out horses who have shown they
have the class to win a graded stakes race. (Exceptions: Ferdinand in 1986, Alysheba in 1987, Funny Cide in 2003 and
Giacomo in 2005 are the only exceptions since the introduction of U.S. graded stakes races in 1973; Alysheba in 1987 did
finish first in the Blue Grass, only to be disqualified and placed third.)
3. THE EIGHTH POLE FACTOR. (In either of his or her last two starts before the Derby, the horse was either first or second
with a furlong to go.) This points out horses who were running strongly at the eighth pole, usually in races at 1 1/16 or
1 1/8 miles. By running strongly at the same point in the Derby, a horse would be in a prime position to win the roses.
Keep in mind that 47 of the last 51 Derby winners have been first or second at the eighth pole. Animal Kingdom was third
at the eighth pole in 2011 (only a half-length from being second); Giacomo was sixth at the eighth pole in 2005; Grindstone
was fourth at the eighth pole in 1996; Decidedly was third at the eighth pole in 1962. (Exceptions: Since 1955, the Kentucky
Derby winners who weren’t either first or second at the eighth pole in his or her last two starts have been Tim Tam in 1958,
Carry Back in 1961, Cannonade in 1974, Gato Del Sol in 1982, Unbridled in 1990 and Sea Hero in 1993, with Canonero II in
1971 unknown.)
4. THE GAMENESS FACTOR. (The horse’s finish position in both of his or her last two races before the Derby was no worse
than his or her running position at the eighth pole.) This points out horses who don’t like to get passed in the final
furlong. (Exceptions: Since 1955, the exceptions have been Venetian Way in 1960, Cannonade in 1974, Foolish Pleasure in
1975, Ferdinand in 1986, Silver Charm in 1997, Mine That Bird in 2009 and Super Saver in 2010, with Canonero II in 1971
unknown.)
5. THE DISTANCE FOUNDATION FACTOR. (The horse has finished at least third in a 1 1/8-mile race or longer before the Derby.)
This points out horses who have the proper foundation and/or stamina for the Derby distance. (Exceptions: Since 1955, the only exceptions have
been Kauai King in 1966, Sea Hero in 1993, Charismatic in 1999, Giacomo in 2005 and Mine That Bird in 2009.)
6. THE SUFFICIENT RACING EXPERIENCE FACTOR. (The horse has had at least six lifetime starts before the Derby.) This points
out horses who have the needed experience. (Exceptions: Since 1955, Grindstone in 1996, Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000, Barbaro
in 2006, Big Brown in 2008, Animal Kingdom in 2011 and I’ll Have Another in 2012 have been the exceptions. Grindstone,
Fusaichi Pegasus and Barbaro each had made five starts before the Kentucky Derby. Animal Kingdom had made four starts
before the Kentucky Derby. Big Brown had made three starts before the Kentucky Derby. I’ll Have Another had made five
starts before the Kentucky Derby.)
7. THE NO ADDING OR REMOVING BLINKERS FACTOR. (The horse has not added blinkers or had blinkers removed in his or her
final start at 3 before the Derby.) This seems to point out that, if a horse is good enough to win the Derby, the trainer
is not searching for answers so late in the game. (Since Daily Racing Form began including blinkers in its past performances
in 1987, no horse has added blinkers or had blinkers removed in his or her last start at 3 before winning the Derby.)
8. THE RACED AS A 2-YEAR-OLD FACTOR. (The horse made at least one start as a 2-year-old.) (Exception: Apollo in 1882 is
the only Kentucky Derby winner who didn’t race as a 2-year-old. There now have been 131 straight Kentucky Derby winners
who raced at as a 2-year-old. Through 2013, the score is 138-1 in terms of Kentucky Derby winners who raced at 2. Going
back to 1956, horses unraced at 2 are 0 for 50 in the Kentucky Derby. During that time, the only horses to even place or
show were Agitate, who finished third in 1974; Reinvested, third in 1982; Strodes Creek, second in 1994; Curlin, third in
2007; and Bodemeister, second in 2012).
9. THE NOT A GELDING FACTOR. (The horse is not a gelding.) (Exceptions: Funny Cide in 2003 and Mine That Bird in 2009
are the only geldings to win the Derby since Clyde Van Dusen in 1929.)
2015
zero strikes:
Dortmund
El Kabeir
International Star
Mubtaahij
Upstart
one strike:
American Pharoah (Category 6)
Carpe Diem (Category 6)
Far Right (Category 3)
Frosted (Catgegory 4)
two strikes:
Firing Line (Categories 4 and 6)
Materiality (Categories 6 and 8)
Ocho Ocho Ocho (Categories 4 and 6)
Tencendur (Categories 2 and 6)
War Story (Categories 2 and 6)
three strikes:
Bolo (Categories 2, 4 and 6)
Danzig Moon (Categories 2, 3 and 6)
Itsaknockout (Categories 3, 5 and 6)
Keen Ice (Categories 2, 3 and 5)
Mr. Z (Cargeries 2, 4 and 7)
Stanford (2, 4 and 6)
Frammento (Categories 2, 3 and 5)
Tale of Verve (Categories 1, 2 and 3)
KD super strikes
2014
California Chrome (0)
Commanding Curve (3) Categories 2, 3 and 4
Danza (2) Categories 1 and 6
Wicked Strong (1) Category 3
2013
Orb (0)
Golden Soul (4) Categories 2, 3, 5 and 6
Revolutionary (0)
Normandy Invasion (3) (Categories 2, 3 and 6)
2012
I’ll Have Another (1) Category 6
Bodemeister (3) categories 6, 7, 8
Dullahan (0)
Went the day well (1) category 6
2011
Animal Kingdom (1) Category 6
Nehro (3) categories 2, 3, 6
Mucho Macho Man (1) category 4
Shackelford (3) categories 2, 4, 6
2010
Super Saver (1) Category 4
Ice box (1) category 3
Paddy O'Prado (1) Category 4
Make Music For Me (4) categories 1, 2, 3, 5
2009
Mine That Bird (4) categories 1, 4, 5 and 9
Pioneerof the Nile (0)
Musket Man (0)
Papa Clem (0)
2008
Big Brown (1) category 6
Eight Belles (1) category 5
Denis of Cork (3) categories 3, 5, 6
Tale of Ekati (0)
2007
Street Sense (0)
Hard Spun (1) Category 4
Curlin (2) categories 6 and 8
Imawildandcrazyguy (4) categories 2, 3, 5 and 9)
2006
Barbaro (1) category 6
Bluegrass Cat (1) category 3
Steppenwolfer (2) categories 2 and 4
Jazil (2) categories 2 and 3
2005
Giacomo (2) Categories 2 and 5
Closing Arguement (0)
Afleet Alex (0)
Dont Get Mad (0)
2004
Smarty Jones (0)
Since 1973, 36 of the 41 Kentucky Derby winners have had either zero strikes or one strike, while five winners had
two strikes. Of the last 41 Kentucky Derby winners, the only one to have more than two strikes was Mine That Bird, who
had four.
Here are the strikes for each Kentucky Derby winner going back to 1973:
1973 Secretariat (0 strikes)
1974 Cannonade (2 strikes) Categories 3 and 4
1975 Foolish Pleasure (0 strikes)
1976 Bold Forbes (0 strikes)
1977 Seattle Slew (0 strikes)
1978 Affirmed (0 strikes)
1979 Spectacular Bid (0 strikes)
1980 Pleasant Colony (0 strikes)
1981 Genuine Risk (1 strike) Category 1
1982 Gato Del Sol (1 strike) Category 3
1983 Sunny’s Halo (1 strike) Category 1
1984 Swale (0 strikes)
1985 Spend a Buck (0 strikes)
1986 Ferdinand (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 4
1987 Alysheba (1 strike) Category 2
1988 Winning Colors (0 strikes)
1989 Sunday Silence (0 strikes)
1990 Unbridled (1 strike) Category 3
1991 Strike the Gold (0 strikes)
1992 Lil E. Tee (0 strikes)
1993 Sea Hero (2 strikes) Categories 3 and 5
1994 Go for Gin (0 strikes)
1995 Thunder Gulch (0 strikes)
1996 Grindstone (0 strikes)
1997 Silver Charm (1 strike) Category 4
1998 Real Quiet (0 strikes)
1999 Charismatic (1 strike) Category 5
2000 Fusaichi Pegasus (1 strike) Category 6
2001 Monarchos (0 strikes)
2002 War Emblem (0 strikes)
2003 Funny Cide (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 9
2004 Smarty Jones (0 strikes)
2005 Giacomo (2 strikes) Categories 2 and 5
2006 Barbaro (1 strike) Category 6
2007 Street Sense (0 strikes)
2008 Big Brown (1 strike) Category 6
2009 Mine That Bird (4 strikes) Categories 1, 4, 5 and 9
2010 Super Saver (1 strike) Category 4
2011 Animal Kingdom (1 strike) Category 6
2012 I’ll Have Another (1 strike) Category 6
2013 Orb (0 strikes)
2014 California Chrome (0 strikes)
1. THE GRADED STAKES FACTOR. (The horse ran in a graded stakes race as a 3-year-old before March 31.) This points out
horses who have competed against tough competition early in the year at 3 and not just at the last minute in April,
enabling the horse to be properly battle-tested. (Exceptions: Since the introduction of graded stakes races in the U.S.
in 1973, only Genuine Risk in 1980, Sunny’s Halo in 1983 and Mine That Bird in 2009 have won the Derby without running in
a graded stakes race at 3 before March 31.)
2. THE WIN IN A GRADED STAKES FACTOR. (The horse has won a graded stakes race.) This points out horses who have shown they
have the class to win a graded stakes race. (Exceptions: Ferdinand in 1986, Alysheba in 1987, Funny Cide in 2003 and
Giacomo in 2005 are the only exceptions since the introduction of U.S. graded stakes races in 1973; Alysheba in 1987 did
finish first in the Blue Grass, only to be disqualified and placed third.)
3. THE EIGHTH POLE FACTOR. (In either of his or her last two starts before the Derby, the horse was either first or second
with a furlong to go.) This points out horses who were running strongly at the eighth pole, usually in races at 1 1/16 or
1 1/8 miles. By running strongly at the same point in the Derby, a horse would be in a prime position to win the roses.
Keep in mind that 47 of the last 51 Derby winners have been first or second at the eighth pole. Animal Kingdom was third
at the eighth pole in 2011 (only a half-length from being second); Giacomo was sixth at the eighth pole in 2005; Grindstone
was fourth at the eighth pole in 1996; Decidedly was third at the eighth pole in 1962. (Exceptions: Since 1955, the Kentucky
Derby winners who weren’t either first or second at the eighth pole in his or her last two starts have been Tim Tam in 1958,
Carry Back in 1961, Cannonade in 1974, Gato Del Sol in 1982, Unbridled in 1990 and Sea Hero in 1993, with Canonero II in
1971 unknown.)
4. THE GAMENESS FACTOR. (The horse’s finish position in both of his or her last two races before the Derby was no worse
than his or her running position at the eighth pole.) This points out horses who don’t like to get passed in the final
furlong. (Exceptions: Since 1955, the exceptions have been Venetian Way in 1960, Cannonade in 1974, Foolish Pleasure in
1975, Ferdinand in 1986, Silver Charm in 1997, Mine That Bird in 2009 and Super Saver in 2010, with Canonero II in 1971
unknown.)
5. THE DISTANCE FOUNDATION FACTOR. (The horse has finished at least third in a 1 1/8-mile race or longer before the Derby.)
This points out horses who have the proper foundation and/or stamina for the Derby distance. (Exceptions: Since 1955, the only exceptions have
been Kauai King in 1966, Sea Hero in 1993, Charismatic in 1999, Giacomo in 2005 and Mine That Bird in 2009.)
6. THE SUFFICIENT RACING EXPERIENCE FACTOR. (The horse has had at least six lifetime starts before the Derby.) This points
out horses who have the needed experience. (Exceptions: Since 1955, Grindstone in 1996, Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000, Barbaro
in 2006, Big Brown in 2008, Animal Kingdom in 2011 and I’ll Have Another in 2012 have been the exceptions. Grindstone,
Fusaichi Pegasus and Barbaro each had made five starts before the Kentucky Derby. Animal Kingdom had made four starts
before the Kentucky Derby. Big Brown had made three starts before the Kentucky Derby. I’ll Have Another had made five
starts before the Kentucky Derby.)
7. THE NO ADDING OR REMOVING BLINKERS FACTOR. (The horse has not added blinkers or had blinkers removed in his or her
final start at 3 before the Derby.) This seems to point out that, if a horse is good enough to win the Derby, the trainer
is not searching for answers so late in the game. (Since Daily Racing Form began including blinkers in its past performances
in 1987, no horse has added blinkers or had blinkers removed in his or her last start at 3 before winning the Derby.)
8. THE RACED AS A 2-YEAR-OLD FACTOR. (The horse made at least one start as a 2-year-old.) (Exception: Apollo in 1882 is
the only Kentucky Derby winner who didn’t race as a 2-year-old. There now have been 131 straight Kentucky Derby winners
who raced at as a 2-year-old. Through 2013, the score is 138-1 in terms of Kentucky Derby winners who raced at 2. Going
back to 1956, horses unraced at 2 are 0 for 50 in the Kentucky Derby. During that time, the only horses to even place or
show were Agitate, who finished third in 1974; Reinvested, third in 1982; Strodes Creek, second in 1994; Curlin, third in
2007; and Bodemeister, second in 2012).
9. THE NOT A GELDING FACTOR. (The horse is not a gelding.) (Exceptions: Funny Cide in 2003 and Mine That Bird in 2009
are the only geldings to win the Derby since Clyde Van Dusen in 1929.)