What are all the computer programs picking for the Derby?

[redeye007]

There are a ton of computer programs out there. the computer boys must have a plan. Are they going to dutch 10 horses to win? Let's see some of the selections picked by software using bris numbers, HDW numbers or trackmaster numbers. I'm sure a lot of players will bet Frosted 15-1 as he has the best BRIS Fast number.

[Jingle]

MPH has the following using Bris Numbers:

8,19,15,18,7, and 12.

I think you have to include #6, Mubtaahij in the mix.

[Lemon Drop Husker]

There are a ton of computer programs out there. the computer boys must have a plan. Are they going to dutch 10 horses to win? Let's see some of the selections picked by software using bris numbers, HDW numbers or trackmaster numbers. I'm sure a lot of players will bet Frosted 15-1 as he has the best BRIS Fast number.

Everything i have seen has Dortmund, American Pharoah, Materiality, Firiing Line, and Upstart.

Dort and AP dominate them all.

[DeltaLover]

There are a ton of computer programs out there. the computer boys must have a plan. Are they going to dutch 10 horses to win? Let's see some of the selections picked by software using bris numbers, HDW numbers or trackmaster numbers. I'm sure a lot of players will bet Frosted 15-1 as he has the best BRIS Fast number.


A note about dutching:

The truth is that ducthing is not a technique that can increase your profitability and should be used with caution as it tends to quickly deprive your BR..

Assuming you have narrowed down you selections to only 2 horses, it does not really make any difference whether you are going to dutch them or randomly select to bet one of the two or even bet random amounts of money in both of them...

The whole "theory" behind ducthing, is simply an illusion that tricks the gamblers to think that he is mitigating his risk exposure by using it and nothing more...

[FocusWiz]

I could be wrong, but I would guess :6: Mubtaahij is not going to be picked by any software.

Here are the top 10 from what I think is the default setting for QuickHorse (APRJ):

:3: MATERIALITY
:2: CARPE DIEM
:18: AMERICAN PHAROAH
:10: FIRING LINE
:15: FROSTED
:9: BOLO
:20: FAR RIGHT
:8: DORTMUND
:4: TENCENDUR
:19: UPSTART

The tweaked method I am currently using to screen contenders in QuickHorse produced the following order:

:18: AMERICAN PHARAOH
:8: DORTMUND
:10: FIRING LINE
:2: CARPE DIEM
:3: MATERIALITY
:12: INTERNATIONAL STAR
:19: UPSTART
:13: ITSAKNOCKOUT
:15: FROSTED
:1: OCHO OCHO OCHO

[BlueChip@DRF]

The trends filter eliminated everyone except :12::15::20: [and :6: - I guess he didn't fit into anything whether negative or positive]

[Augenj]

I could be wrong, but I would guess :6: Mubtaahij is not going to be picked by any software.

Well, interestingly enough, THA puts Mubtaahij on top, much to my surprise.
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=122341

[douglasw32]

Mubtaahij

[LottaKash]

When all of the Derby entrants are carrying more weight and going the longest distance in their brief careers, I would have to think that a computer program would have a very tenuous time trying to make an accurate prediction given the 2 new things that these horses will have to do and overcome on race day...

So, my meaningless and "un-computerized" pick to win the whole thing is: "American Pharoah"....

What I like most about this horse is the way that he wins his races....All of his wins were of the easiest kind...

But, more importantly in my P&P handicapping process', I am always more impressed by an "Extended Win" from an improving horse, than just an EZ-win...An extended win horse to me, is any horse that had the lead at the stretch call, and extended that lead to the wire by 2 or more lengths....And that is exactly what AP has done in his last 3-races...

So given that his last 3-wins are "EXTWs", especially his last race, which was an EXTW, at a new and longer distance to boot, I have all the confidence in the world that this horse will be going forward in this class...Especially noted too, that his works are always sensational, in the way that champions workout..., not to mention that his Beyers aren't too shabby either...

Still, there are some others, who, if they won and beat AP, I wouldn't be too surprised, given the new territory of these 3yo's, as well as their own racing credentials... But to beat AP, I think that they will just have to be the better horse come Derby-Day, because AP will go down swinging right to the wire, on 5/2/15, imo...

Hey, maybe another Affirmed/Alydar thing on tap ?

[DeltaLover]

When all of the Derby entrants are carrying more weight and going the longest distance in their brief careers, I would have to think that a computer program would have a very tenuous time trying to make an accurate prediction given the 2 new things that these horses will have to do and overcome on race day...




In my book, computer handicapping is not about prediction and much less about accurate prediction.

Since horse racing is not a deterministic phenomenon, the very best scenario is to create, a probability distribution, which IMHO is quite useless for betting purposes.

The more your predictive algorithm becomes more sophisticated the more it resembles the crowd's opinion and the pool derived odds, making it impossible to grind any profit since the take out is enough to evaporate any potential (slim) overlays that might occur.. (To make things ever worse, note that you never know in advance the price offered on any bet and any pool, so what seems like a huge overlay a few seconds before the bell, can very easily be converted to a miserable underlay, just because some whale decided to drop a few hundred dollars on it)

[pandy]

Diamond System picked Firing Line

http://www.handicappingwinners.com/free_picks.htm

[JustRalph]

Equisim
***Equisim has not usable data on the :6:

Based on the last race basically

:8: Wires em with :3: close until the top of the stretch
:3: 1L Behind at the wire
:4: 1L behind the :3: at the wire
:15: In a virtual tie with the :3:
:19: 1.5 back of :15:

The above are basically within 4L of each other

Break for 3L to the rest

:18: is an anomaly due to how easy he won last out.....it throws the program on horses that win that easy........ he's the fav.....what the heck..... Equisim shows him 8th behind the winner by 6L. But it's an anomaly

combining pace lines/multiple pacelines
:8:
:9: 2L back of above
:3: 1L back of above
:19: .5L back back of above
:2: 1L back of above

I haven't adjusted a damn thing to do with pace etc. Just vanilla settings

Bris Data

[Some_One]

This little spreadsheet I created for my UK/Aussie play has :3: on top with :2: :10: :19: underneath.

[JJMartin]

Everything i have seen has Dortmund, American Pharoah, Materiality, Firiing Line, and Upstart.

Dort and AP dominate them all.

Sounds about right

[Some_One]

This little spreadsheet I created for my UK/Aussie play has :3: on top with :2: :10: :19: underneath.

With the scrs, I got :3: on top off :5: :10: :2:

[Tom]

I took CJ's TFUS adjusted times for each horse's 9 furlong race and did aTPR for the race.