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View Full Version : How I'm betting the BELMONT STAKES


fmhealth
05-24-2004, 03:44 PM
OK, let's get one thing straight from the get-go. After 'capping for 45 years I don't believe I've ever seen as much hype for any colt as I've seen for "Smarty". Most if not all pundits already have him in the winners circle after the Belmont and the "Hall of Fame" shortly after that. How many times have all of us seen "can't lose" horses LOSE ?? Many, many times. Especially since ALL THE OTHER T/C WINNERS HAD A RACE OVER THE BELMONT STRIP. "SMARTY" DOESN'T !!!

Will "Smarty" win ? Probaly. Will he be betable at 1-5, not for me. Could he lose? Sure. He even has a 5% chance of running OTM !!
With that said, and since I'd like some action on a race that under ordinary circumstances I wouldn't even consider betting. Here's my plan.

Supposing there is a 10 horse field. I intend to bet all{not Smarty} $2.00 to show. An $18.00 investment. Most reasonable scenario is that "Smarty" wins & I collect $2.10 on each of my bets for a return of $4.20 & a loss of $13.80. BUT, if "Smarty" runs out, albeit a remote possibility. I'll probaly collect about $200.00 for each of my 3 tickets that are good.

So, I'm investing $18.00 with a $14.00 downside & a $600.00(if not greater) upside. Seems like a reasonable "risk-reward ratio".

Best of luck with whatever strategy you use!!!!

cj
05-24-2004, 04:00 PM
Hate to burst your bubble, but even if Smarty doesn't hit the board, you will never get those payoffs unless one of the infamous "bridgejumpers" shows up. Highly unlikely in a 12f race. Also, as of now, only 5 are expected to challenge Smarty.

PaceAdvantage
05-24-2004, 04:29 PM
Smarty Jones is much different than previous horses who have come into the Belmont with a chance at the TC.....

Undefeated in 8 starts
Has won over 5 different tracks
Has won on off tracks and fast tracks
Ran a 105 Beyer as a 2yo
Ran a 118 Beyer before the Belmont

You can probably understand why he is the most hyped horse in quite some time (I guess you forgot Arazi and Fusaichi Pegasus, to name two of the most overyhyped horses of the last 12 years)

At least Smarty deserves his hype....he hasn't disappointed yet.

kenwoodallpromos
05-25-2004, 12:59 AM
I still say betting SJ to lose means betting all others to win. Smarty is the value bet regardless of odds.

Turf2Dirt
05-25-2004, 04:09 PM
By risking $14 to win $600, a 3 1/2 % chance of winning would be fair value.

Off the board I give him a 1%, but if you think 5% than you are getting an overlay.

More importanyly however, is the fact that everyday 100-1 shots run that realistically have a 2-3% chance of winning. Are you willing to take that overlay when a miniscule chance of actually hitting comes with it?

fmhealth
05-25-2004, 04:34 PM
Mr Turf, your point is well taken. The ONLY reason I will embrace this strategy is to be "involved" with this high-profile race. I also tend at the races or the stock market to take a contrarian point of view. And since virtually everyone has already awarded the T/C to " Smarty". I feel very comfortable being on the "other side" of this transaction.

chickenhead
05-25-2004, 04:37 PM
1% out of the money is a little low, 3% minimum I would think on any horse, maybe more.

Secretariat
05-25-2004, 07:00 PM
If Smarty doesn't fire who is most likely to beat him?

Skanoochies
05-25-2004, 07:31 PM
I think if he does`nt fire, he`ll still win!:D

Turf2Dirt
05-26-2004, 08:25 PM
I mean, I've seen your strategy work before, in spades in fact.(2001 Ellis Park Juvenile Request for Parole $18 $10 $223, 1-5 Buster's Daydream off the board, shipping in from Saratoga graded stakes company)

But your basically rooting for Stewart Elliot to fall-off, Even if Smarty throws a clunker and has a bad trip, he still only has to beat 2 horses to beat you.

More or less the Belmont is a horrible betting race, find a different 1-5 shot that doesn't have to die to miss the board.

Turf2Dirt
05-28-2004, 03:10 AM
your strategy worked at Hollywood today thanks to Kent D.

Did you hit?

KingChas
05-28-2004, 08:12 AM
You can make a fortune on Smarty .Just buy 100 $2 win tickets and sell them as souvenier's.Just check out the online auctions people are crazy.

In Jest-KingChas

fmhealth
05-28-2004, 10:19 AM
Thanks for the "heads-up" Mr Turf. During the week I tend to concentrate on trading stock options. Usually a 'capper on Weds & Sat.

kenwoodallpromos
05-28-2004, 02:29 PM
Hol 5-27= Kent D. out of the money, 5 rivals, each was over 5-1. Winner 5.80-1.

Turf2Dirt
05-31-2004, 12:56 AM
Originally posted by KingChas
You can make a fortune on Smarty .Just buy 100 $2 win tickets and sell them as souvenier's.Just check out the online auctions people are crazy.

In Jest-KingChas

You know I was really thinking about that, assuming you could sell them for $50 bucks. That makes Smarty Jones 25-1, which busts open the win pool.

Bet $100 to win on every horse, and 50 $2 win tickets on Smarty Jones would give you a guaranteed profit.

You would root against Smarty Jones, of course, to avoid the hassle of actually selling them.

Exactaman
05-31-2004, 02:22 AM
Originally posted by Turf2Dirt


Bet $100 to win on every horse, and 50 $2 win tickets on Smarty Jones would give you a guaranteed profit.



unless everyone gets the same idea, flooding the market with $2 Smarty Jones tickets, leaving you with some very expensive souveniers :)

KingChas
05-31-2004, 07:32 AM
If everyone buys $2 soviener win tickets on Smarty and he wins I Imagine Belmont Park makes out pretty well after a year of uncashed tickets.What do you think?If they are never cashed?

vespa7
05-31-2004, 10:05 AM
Just enjoy the race. The fault of most punters is they want action on every race. Let's hope Smarty wins it would be great for racing!!


Go Smarty

NoDayJob
06-01-2004, 03:16 AM
Originally posted by KingChas
If everyone buys $2 soviener win tickets on Smarty and he wins I Imagine Belmont Park makes out pretty well after a year of uncashed tickets.What do you think?If they are never cashed?

This happened years ago. When Secretariat won the triple crown an enterprising New Yorker had bought 1000 $2 ducats with Secretariat to win on each of the triple crown races. He mounted them on a wooden plaque with sealer and sold them through various outlets for up to $500.00 each. I think all of them were sold too. Maybe someone else has done it again. The only thing remaining is for Smarty Jones to cross the finish line first in the Belmont Stakes.

NDJ

kenwoodallpromos
06-01-2004, 04:24 AM
The guy framing them in the back room is SJ's owner. LOL.