My Derby line | Fair Line (Value Line)

[PaceAdvantage]

:8: Dortmund 2-1 (3-1)
:18: American Pharoah 6-1 (8-1)
:10: Firing Line 8-1 (10-1)
:3: Materiality 13-1 (16-1)
:19: Upstart 14-1 (17-1)
:17: Mr. Z 16-1 (20-1)
:9: Bolo 18-1 (23-1)

These are my contenders, pretty much. Based on morning line odds, the more bettable horses appear to be :17: , :9: and :10:.

If Dortmund is 3-1 or more, though, I'll be very tempted to ignore every other value horse in the race and just put all my money on him to win and key him all over the place.

Morning line odds don't count though... :lol:

[Dahoss2002]

I think I use Mr Z a little too.

[JustRalph]

Why no :15: Frosted?

I concur with your picks so far....... but I think Frosted should be on the list

No confidence in the Wood?

[DelMarJay]

Well, lemme be the first to question your #'s on the next Seattle Slew(at least, that's what all the talking heads on TV are saying).

While I'm not sure I'll go as far as that, AP will be 2-1 or 5-2, so again I ask why such a discrepancy with your analysis?

[AlBundy33]

I'm a bit surprised that Mr. Z is on your radar ahead of Frosted and either Tencendur or El Kabeir.

[PaceAdvantage]

While I'm not sure I'll go as far as that, AP will be 2-1 or 5-2, so again I ask why such a discrepancy with your analysis?I guess I don't believe the hype?

He is my second choice...so I don't think he's horrible...just don't think he'll be anywhere near worth a wager come race day.

He can certainly win...but he won't win with me on his back.

[PaceAdvantage]

Why no :15: Frosted?

I concur with your picks so far....... but I think Frosted should be on the list

No confidence in the Wood?It's a pretty well matched field once you get past the top couple of contenders...you have to draw a line somewhere...

[PaceAdvantage]

I'm a bit surprised that Mr. Z is on your radar ahead of Frosted and either Tencendur or El Kabeir.All three merit attention because of their relatively strong closing numbers, although Tencendur is the worst of the three in my opinion...

Mr Z. is weak on the back end, but he has enough speed to secure decent positioning, and in a race like this, that's what I like to see...I would rather wager on that then wager on a horse who needs a miracle trip from the back of the pack...

[JimG]

PA,

What I want to know is if those contenders were found using the PA2000 IE?

http://web.archive.org/web/20000605113009/http://www.paceadvantage.com/pa2000.htm

[PaceAdvantage]

PA,

What I want to know is if those contenders were found using the PA2000 IE?

http://web.archive.org/web/20000605113009/http://www.paceadvantage.com/pa2000.htmThose were the days...and if you click the HOME button, I gave away an autographed copy of the 1993 Secretariat commemorative Belmont Stakes program...

But to answer your question...no...I used TFUS.

[GaryG]

Rather than anything fancy I am going with a win and place bet on :10: Firing Line. His numbers are as good as any of them and I see him getting a good trip in the 2nd flight. With all of the hype on the Baffert horses I can't see the odds being less than 10-1. The power is out west this year.

[JimG]

Those were the days...and if you click the HOME button, I gave away an autographed copy of the 1993 Secretariat commemorative Belmont Stakes program...

But to answer your question...no...I used TFUS.

PA,

They sure were. And I clicked another button that says Gary Stevens retires!

In 1999.

Jim

Wonder how many post or read here that were with you on the old board and even the Prodigy days? Not many of us left even with a join date of March 2001, for this current board.